Mattel - Q3 2023

Transcript

Megan Christine Alexander (VP)

Stock levels for your brands, are you seeing retailers replenish in line with POS or taking a more cautious stance given the macro?

Anthony DiSilvestro (CFO)

Sure. You know, in terms of retail inventories, I'll start by saying, you know, in the Q3, you know, gross billings and POS were fairly well aligned, and retail inventories remained below prior year levels. So at the end of Q3, retail inventory levels in dollars were down by double-digit percentage. And as we said, you know, predominantly current and of good quality. And, you know, we're working very closely with our retailers and believe we are very well positioned, you know, heading into the holiday season with respect to those inventory levels.

Ynon Kreiz (Chairman and CEO)

And Megan, just to add, you know, and following Arpine question earlier, we very long on the toy industry. Industry is resilient. Notwithstanding the decline this year, we've had over 10 years of growth, and we believe as a category, as a sector, it has very strong fundamentals, in playing into basic human behavior of play, being a strategic category for retailers, attractive and affordable price points, and show resilience, especially in challenging economic times.

Megan Christine Alexander (VP)

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Laszczyk with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Stephen Neild Laszczyk (VP)

Hey, great. Thank you. Maybe on Hot Wheels, the category, or the brand posted impressive year-over-year growth in the quarter, north of 20%. Could you maybe unpack the drivers of, of that underlying performance? How much of it was category strengths versus market share gains, versus perhaps just timing of orders coming through, in the Q3?

Ynon Kreiz (Chairman and CEO)

So Stephen, You know, vehicles continue to perform very strongly, growing 15% in line with POS. We continue to gain share versus kind of 410 basis points, so meaningful growth, in already from a strong baseline from Mattel. The growth was primarily driven by die-cast vehicles and new innovation. We talked a lot about the RC line and skate segment, so that's great to see new parts of the category growing. We also continue to leverage the core die-cast vehicles. We target both kids and adult collectors. That's another segment that is growing well. We continue to innovate and expand into additional segments this fall, including the RacerVerse, the new character baseline, which is also very innovative and exciting to see.

So, this is all driving incredible performance, and this is before the movie that is still being developed is coming out. And, you know, we are now developing what we hope will be an exciting project, a Hot Wheels live action movie produced by J.J. Abrams, who, as you know, is one of the most prolific filmmakers of our generation. He's a great partner, very excited, and, you know, there's more, a lot more to expect from Hot Wheels, a very strong driver. I also want to mention Matchbox, an important part of the vehicles category, which did well in the quarter. Gross billings were stable, but POS was up double digit, driven by strength in the die-cast segment.

There's another movie that we're developing for Matchbox with Skydance, which is the producer of the Mission Impossible series and Top Gun. So another great partner, and we are very excited also about this film project in the making.

Stephen Neild Laszczyk (VP)

Great. And then just one for Anthony. Anthony, on free cash flow, is there any reason why the extra $25 million in EBITDA guidance for this year wouldn't flow down to free cash flow with the outlook for CapEx remaining the same? Perhaps something on working cap worth calling out, or should we expect that to flow through?

Anthony DiSilvestro (CFO)

Yeah, it's pretty much, you know, dependent on the timing of the collections related to the upside around the Barbie movie, and it's hard to say exactly when that's gonna come through. So that's the reason that, you know, we didn't change that.

Stephen Neild Laszczyk (VP)

Got it. Thank you.

Ynon Kreiz (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you, Steven.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes on the line of James Hardiman with Citi. Your line is open.

James Hardiman (Managing Director, Leisure Analyst)

Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my call, guys. So if I think about sort of the implied Q4 guidance in that, on the revenue side and that mid- to high teens, is there any way to think about what the growth in POS needs to be to allow for that reported number in the Q4?

Anthony DiSilvestro (CFO)

Yeah, we haven't broken down to that level, but we had said that we expect, you know, growth in consumer demand in the Q4 for Mattel. We expect to outpace the industry, but we do expect, you know, gross billings to be ahead of POS, and that's because we're wrapping that retail inventory decline in the prior year. But, you know, we're expecting a strong Q4 with respect to consumer demand or POS.

James Hardiman (Managing Director, Leisure Analyst)

Got it. That makes sense. It sort of leads to my next question. Obviously, you know, we haven't even gotten to the holiday season, so a lot of the 2024 color is way too early. But if I just think about 2023, right? It was a tale of two halves.

First half there was a lot of inventory drawdown, and so you were, your sales levels were way worse than POS. Second half is really about Barbie and the benefit that you're getting there. Is there any way to compare those two effects as we think about lapping them? I think the big concern is that, you know, as you, if you get to $125 million of headwind, that it's gonna be real hard to lap that for the year, but just trying to make sure I understand the moving pieces. Thanks.

Anthony DiSilvestro (CFO)

Sure. Sure. A couple of points there, and I would say that the year is kinda unfolding as we expected, and we did, you know, expect 2023 to revert to normal shipping pattern, one third in the first half, two thirds in the second half. That is what we're seeing, and that led to declines in the first half, growth in the second half, with accelerated growth in Q4, giving what we're wrapping. In terms of, you know, the Barbie movie and economic... Look, we expect this to be a catalyst, you know, for the brand and to benefit, you know, the franchise, you know, for quarters and years to come. So we don't necessarily view it as, hey, something we're just gonna, you know, wrap, so to speak.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Linda Bolton Weiser with D.A. Davidson. Your line is open.

Linda Bolton Weiser (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst)

Yes, hi. I was wondering if you could update us on your earlier comment about your theory that consumers were not as strong in their buying behavior as maybe in the summer because they were saving up in order to spend more for Christmas. Can you update us on do you have any survey work or anything that updates us on how consumers might more recently be thinking about things?

Anthony DiSilvestro (CFO)

Yeah, I'd say we don't have any new survey to point to, but I would say things are unfolding, you know, as we, you know, had, you know, expected. You know, you know, Q4 to date, POS is, you know, positive, you know, for us. And, you know, we continue to expect that consumers will revert back to more historical shopping patterns and make their purchases closer, you know, to the holiday season. And with that, we would expect, you know, POS to accelerate as we progress through the Q4.

Linda Bolton Weiser (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst)

Okay. And I was also wondering if you could say whether or not you looked at the Melissa & Doug company that was sold. Did you consider looking at that, or why not?

Anthony DiSilvestro (CFO)

Yeah, I would say, look, we don't really comment on a competitor, you know, M&A. We are very focused on executing our, you know, capital deployment priorities, which we've, you know, talked about in terms of, you know, investing to drive organic growth, maintaining that leverage ratio 2 to 2.5x, and our investment-grade rating. And that gives us, you know, flexibility to consider M&A as well as, you know, share buybacks. We're very happy with our position in the ITPS, you know, category. We are a leader and the number one toy company globally, and Fisher-Price is the number one property in the category. So we love our position and the prospects for our business.

Linda Bolton Weiser (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst)

Okay, thanks very much.

Anthony DiSilvestro (CFO)

Thank you, Linda.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Drew Crum with Stifel. Your line is open.

Drew Crum (Senior Analyst)

Okay, thanks. Hey, guys. Good afternoon. Anthony, on adjusted gross margin, any notable swing factors to consider for Q4? And just wanna confirm that Q4, Q4 gross margin should decline quarter-over-quarter versus Q3.

Anthony DiSilvestro (CFO)

Yeah, in terms of, you know, commenting relative to the prior year as we think about Q4, and when you do the math, you know, it implies pretty significant growth, gross margin expansion Q4 versus 2022, and a couple reasons for that. You know, one is the prior year was about 43%, and it was negatively impacted from considerably significant inventory management costs. So, you know, we're wrapping that. And as I think about the current year, you know, we'll benefit from scale, from our Optimizing for Growth program, as well as, you know, cost deflation. We did see some deflation in Q3, and would expect to see additional deflation in Q4.

That gives us confidence in terms of getting to that implied Q4, you know, gross margin, which is more in line with the historical levels as well.

Drew Crum (Senior Analyst)

Got it. Okay, and then just circle back to the toy industry and your outlook. You know, now down mid-single digits for the year. I think previously you were assuming down slightly. Is this adjustment based on a weaker Q3 relative to your expectations? Is it something you're anticipating for Q4 or a combination of the two? And did I hear you correctly, Anthony, that you expect POS to accelerate in Q4 over Q3? Just wanna clarify that. Thanks.

Anthony DiSilvestro (CFO)

Let me clarify that, you know, quickly. So what I said is, Q4 to date, POS is positive, and from that level, we expect to accelerate. It wasn't relative to Q3.

Drew Crum (Senior Analyst)

Got it. Okay.

Ynon Kreiz (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah, Drew, you know, what we're seeing is a year-to-date decline that was more than we expected at the start of the year. We believe it's primarily driven by macroeconomic factors, inflation, higher interest rates, and other, you know, elements that we all know and read about and experience. We believe consumers are returning to normalized shopping patterns closer to the holiday season, so we expect to see some of that playing out in the Q4, we believe that the industry and our retail partners are well prepared for the holiday season. But that said, we now expect, given the performance to date, the industry to be down mid-single digits.

Anthony DiSilvestro (CFO)

Got it. Okay, thanks, guys.

Ynon Kreiz (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Eric Handler with Roth MKM. Your line is open.

Eric Handler (Analyst)

Thank you, and good afternoon. I wonder if you could talk a little bit about your movie expectations, and obviously a huge success with Barbie, and I imagine that makes it easier to green light some additional films. Obviously, Hollywood is closed right now because of the strikes, but, you know, should we be thinking about maybe it could be sooner than later before we see the next Mattel-branded movies coming out, or how should we think about that?

Ynon Kreiz (Chairman and CEO)

Yes, Eric. The vision from the outset was to collaborate with leading filmmakers to make standout quality movies based on our iconic brands that will resonate in culture and appeal to global audiences. I think it's safe to say that we managed to achieve that with this movie. There is no question that the success of Barbie repositioned Mattel as an important player in Hollywood. The strength of our brands and cultural resonance of our franchises is an important factor, you know, playing outside of the toy aisle and appealing to very broad audiences. We demonstrated our ability to attract, collaborate, partner, and amplify top creative talent.

And the other dimension that people didn't really fully appreciate, and frankly, we also, to some degree, were not, you know, fully recognize until it actually happened, is our marketing capability outside of the toy aisle. We're a company. We're a creative company, we're an innovative company, but we are also experts in demand creation. And we generate year in and year out, billions worth of demand to our product, from the start. Yet here what we did, we leveraged our capabilities and our retail reach and expertise to promote and market the movie together with Warner Bros., who did an excellent job, but we truly amplify that and turn it into a cultural phenomenon.

So those assets, relationships, and capabilities make us an attractive player, and we believe that the success of the Barbie movie, for all of those reasons, will accelerate our strategy, and not just in movies, but in other verticals, given the strength of our brands and the fact that they resonate so strongly in culture. So we, we're very excited to be where we are. Clearly, it was a breakthrough quarter for our entertainment strategy, and we expect that it will help us accelerate things, you know, in the coming quarters.

Eric Handler (Analyst)

Great. Thank you very much.

Ynon Kreiz (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Your next question is from the line of Chris Horvers with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Chris Horvers (Senior Analyst)

Thanks. Good evening. So my question is in the gross margin, there was 170 basis points related to the Barbie movie. Can you talk about, you know, how what that broke down in terms of box office participation versus the toy sale, toys, toy sales in the merchandise, third-party merchandise, and how are you thinking about that benefit in the Q4?

Anthony DiSilvestro (CFO)

Sure, we're not gonna break it down to that level, but let me, you know, comment on the impact. So within our growth margin bridge, you know, you saw a 170 basis point mix benefit. That's not all Barbie related, but it's primarily related, you know, to our direct movie participation, movie-related toy sales, and consumer products, all kind of bundled, you know, together. Also, what we did say is, for the full year, you know, we expect those three items to deliver more than $125 million in sales with a blended operating income margin of over 60%. And the majority of all that was recognized in Q3, and probably with a skew more towards the movie relative to the other items.

Chris Horvers (Senior Analyst)

So as we think about the Q4, how are you thinking about the sort of specific Barbie movie lift in terms of the top line and margin perspective participation? You know, the participation point goes down, but are you largely sold through directly, you know, toys directly related to the movie? And would you expect the merchandise portion to accelerate?

Anthony DiSilvestro (CFO)

Yeah, I would say less margin accretion related to these items in Q4 than Q3.

Chris Horvers (Senior Analyst)

Okay. Thanks very much.

Anthony DiSilvestro (CFO)

You're welcome.

Ynon Kreiz (Chairman and CEO)

Thanks, Chris.

Operator (participant)

Your last question today comes from the line of Jason Haas with Bank of America. Your line is open.

Jason Haas (VP, Equity Research)

Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I'm curious if you could help size up how much of a headwind destocking was to revenue in the first half of the year. The reason I ask is just because as we're thinking through our models for next year, is there an embedded uplift to revenue just because you'll be lapping over that destocking? Or is it the case that the reason there was that destocking was because there was restocking in the first half of 2022, so it was really more of a return to normal. Trying to figure out if there's, like, an embedded revenue upside and what that could potentially be for next year?

Anthony DiSilvestro (CFO)

It's very difficult to say in sort of the impact in 2024. But you're right, in the first half of 2023, we saw for the most of the inventory correction happen at retail. And in the context of our full year guidance, you know, it's 3 to 4 points of headwind. Again, most of that occurred in the first half of 2023. And, you know, depending on, you know, what retailers do going into 2024, again, sitting here today, right? It's hard to say if there will be a, you know, a bounce back, you know, relative to that destocking.

Jason Haas (VP, Equity Research)

Got it. That's helpful. And then when I look at Barbie in the first half of the year for worldwide gross billing, excluding, I guess, excluding FX, it's down a little over 20% or so in the first half of the year, and then we saw on Q3, it went up 14% in the quarter. Is it fair to assume that a lot of that acceleration was driven by the Barbie movie? I'm trying to understand if the Barbie movie did drive that halo effect to all, you know, Barbie toys, not just the movie-related SKUs. The concern being there that, you know, you, you may have to lap that next year since, you know, you won't have another major motion picture for Barbie.

But, I'm curious. I don't know if there were promotions that shifted or other things to consider, and maybe it just wasn't all the movie.

Anthony DiSilvestro (CFO)

Yeah, I think the way to think about, you know, Q3 and Barbie, you know, first, in terms of the, you know, the 14% increase in gross billings, I would say that's primarily attributable to the movie-related items. But when you think about POS, which is up low double digits as well, right? That's primarily driven by the improvement in consumer demand around toys. And as we think about the impact, you know, of the movie, you know, we believe it's gonna have a long-lasting effect in terms of broadening Barbie's fan base, right? And that'll be an important contributor, you know, to the brand. It's really part of our long-term franchise management, you know, strategy. And with respect to 2023 in aggregate, right?

We expect, you know, Barbie to grow in Q4 and for it to be positive, you know, on a full year basis, which is, you know, part of the guidance that we, you know, updated today as well.

Jason Haas (VP, Equity Research)

Got it. That's very helpful. Thank you.

Anthony DiSilvestro (CFO)

Sure. Welcome.

Operator (participant)

This concludes our question and answer portion for today. I turn the call back to Ynon Kreiz, Chairman and CEO.

Ynon Kreiz (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you, operator, and thank you everyone for your questions. I would like to conclude the call by expressing our hope for the safety of Israeli and Palestinian children, children and families caught in the Israel-Hamas war. Since the attacks of October seventh, the Mattel Children's Foundation has been focused on humanitarian work, including cash and toy donations to shelters and hospitals to support children who are suffering. On a personal note, I would like also to thank all of those who have reached out to me directly to express their concern and condolences. We wish for a swift resolution to the war and more peaceful times in the future. And now I'll turn the call back to Dave.

David Zbojniewicz (VP of Investor Relations)

Thank you, Ynon. The replay of this call will be available via webcast beginning at 8:30 P.M. Eastern Time today. The webcast link can be found in the Events and Presentation section of our Investors section of our corporate website, corporate.mattel.com. Thank you for participating in today's call.

Operator (participant)

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.