Metropolitan Bank - Q1 2024
April 19, 2024
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good day and welcome to Metropolitan Commercial Bank's first quarter 2024 earnings call. Hosting the call from Metropolitan Commercial Bank are Mark DeFazio, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Dan Dougherty, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode, and the floor will be open for your questions following the prepared remarks. If you would like to ask a question at that time, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. If at any point your question has been answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing star 2. We ask that you please pick up your handset to allow optimal sound quality. Lastly, if you should require operator assistance, please press star 0.
During today's presentation, reference will be made to the company's earnings release and investor presentation, copies of which are available at mcbanky.com. Today's presentation may include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to the company's notices regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures that appear in the earnings release. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Mark DeFazio, President and Chief Executive Officer. You may begin.
Mark DeFazio (President and CEO)
Thank you. Good morning, and thank you for joining our first quarter earnings call. The first quarter of 2024 was very productive for MCB. Our first quarter results were a strong start for the company. During the quarter, we carefully grew the balance sheet while maintaining our price discipline, credit standards, and with a continued sharp focus on liquidity and interest rate risk management. We were also able to grow core deposits well in excess of our loan growth. Our two major initiatives planned for 2024, the wind-down of the GPG business and the digital transformation project, have begun in earnest and are proceeding on time and on budget while we remain focused on the continuation and expansion of our profitable and disciplined commercial bank growth strategy.
In the first quarter, we reported an earnings per share of $1.46, which was supported by strong growth in net interest income and continued excellent credit performance. In the meantime, the successful completion of our other initiatives remains a high priority. The economy continues to display strong fundamentals and impressive resilience. This is evident. The evident strength of the economy provides us with an optimistic outlook for loan growth and credit performance. The outlook for monetary policy has changed dramatically over the last several months. Rather than expectations of significant easing throughout 2024, the market is now pricing in less than 50 basis points of easing in the back half of the year. I am pleased to report, we saw a 4 basis points NIM expansion in the first quarter.
Even with the change in the outlook of monetary policy, we continue to expect further margin expansion as the year progresses. Asset quality remains strong. We have not identified any broad-based negative trends in any loan product, geography, or sector that is impacting our portfolio. We believe that our healthy credit metrics are a direct result of MCB's pricing discipline, conservative underwriting, and portfolio diversity. Also, as our performance is supported by the exclusive focus on relationship-based commercial banking and high-quality commercial clients and sponsors in industry segments that we know exceptionally well. Finally, I am pleased to report that the two loans totaling approximately $21 million that were classified as non-performing loans at 12/31 last year are now current, have substantial funded interest reserves, and the related workouts also include targeted and aggressive amortization requirements throughout this year. I will now turn the call over to Dan Dougherty.
Daniel Dougherty (EVP and CFO)
Thank you, Mark. Good morning, and thanks again for joining our first quarter earnings call. First quarter loan growth: over $94 million was funded entirely by core deposit growth of more than $340 million, excluding additional growth in the BaaS vertical. As mentioned in the press release, multiple deposit verticals contributed to the core deposit growth. As a result of our deposit growth, our end-of-period and average balance of cash parked at the Fed was substantially elevated. Despite the outsized cash position and the current rate environment, we were able to increase the net interest margin by 4 basis points in the first quarter. Our loan pricing and repricing discipline was the main driver of our ability to expand the NIM. We expect to see some additional uplift in the margin throughout the remainder of the year.
In our updated forecast model, we have penciled in a single 25 basis point rate cut in September. In that scenario, we expect to see approximately 5-10 basis points of additional uplift. Put another way, we forecast a fourth quarter NIM in the range of 3.45%-3.5%. Focusing on lending, it is noteworthy that our quarterly loan growth was net of more than $225 million in payoffs and paydowns. Continued focus on economic loan pricing resulted in a weighted average coupon net of deferred fees, which are typically 15-25 basis points per year, of 8.47% on first quarter new loan originations and draws versus a December 2023 portfolio coupon of 6.92%. Loan growth is expected to accelerate as the year progresses. We continue to plan on loan growth of between $600 million and $800 million for the year.
Our loan pipelines, especially on the C&I side, are growing after a slower-than-expected start to the year. Importantly, our plan assumes that we're able to fund all of that planned loan growth with deposits. As Mark mentioned, asset quality remains strong with no identifiable negative trends in the portfolio. The provision in the first quarter was generally in line with the increase in loan footings, offset somewhat by improvements in the macroeconomic variables that underlie our first quarter CECL model forecast. Non-interest income increased by approximately 7% from the linked quarter as fees associated with letter of credit activity and deposit service charges more than offset a small decline in BaaS revenue. The uptick in deposit fees is expected to be sustainable while the increase in letter of credit fees is more aligned with borrower behavior.
The decline in BAS revenue will accelerate as the wind-down project proceeds throughout the year. We expect BAS revenue to total $8 million-$10 million and total non-interest income to total $19 million-$21 million for the year. Onto non-interest expenses. Non-interest expenses totaled $41.9 million in the first quarter. Importantly, expenses related to the digital transformation project totaled $1.8 million and an additional $3.1 million reflects remediation work and severance payments associated with the GPG wind-down. There was also an increase in core operating expenses compared to the fourth quarter. This was primarily due to seasonally elevated employer tax payments. Our $12 million digital transformation budget remains unchanged and we continue to expect to complete the project in 2025. We currently expect about $8 million-$9 million of the project to be expensed in 2024, including what has already been recorded for the first quarter.
Non-interest expenses for the full year, including the digital transformation investment, are expected to total in the range of $160 million-$163 million. The effective tax rate for the quarter was approximately 33%. The tax rate was negatively impacted by discrete items that came through in the quarter, primarily related to the conversion of employee stock-based awards. Going forward, we expect the effective tax rate to be in the range of 31%-32%, excluding discrete items. Finally, please refer to the updated investor deck, which can be accessed from our website, for a walkdown from reported earnings to non-GAAP core earnings, as well the deck now includes slides that provide details about the bank's multifamily and office loan portfolios. I will now turn the call back to our operator.
Operator (participant)
At this time, we will open the floor for questions. If you would like to ask a question at this time, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. If at any point your question has been answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing star 2. Again, we do ask that you pick up your handset to provide optimal sound quality. Thank you. Our first question will come from Mark Fitzgibbon with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.
Mark Fitzgibbon (Managing Director and Head of FSG Research)
Hey, guys. Good morning. Nice quarter.
Mark DeFazio (President and CEO)
Thank you, Mark. Good morning.
Mark Fitzgibbon (Managing Director and Head of FSG Research)
First question I had, just to clarify, we still should expect about $300 million of B2C deposits running off in the second quarter. Is that right?
Daniel Dougherty (EVP and CFO)
Yeah. That's a good estimate. Towards the end of the second quarter, especially, yes.
Mark Fitzgibbon (Managing Director and Head of FSG Research)
Okay. Should we assume that your deposit pipelines continue to be strong given the success you had in the first quarter?
Mark DeFazio (President and CEO)
Yeah. The answer is— sorry, Dan. Yeah. The answer is yes, but the timing of these new relationships and deepening some of them could be a bit different. But to Dan's point, at the end of the year, we are confident that we will not only replace those deposits but we will have funded our loan growth. So from a quarter-by-quarter basis, it could be; the timing could be slightly off, but on an annualized basis, we are still in line with our projections.
Mark Fitzgibbon (Managing Director and Head of FSG Research)
Okay. And then in the past, you all had indicated that you were talking to some teams from neighboring banks. I haven't seen any announcements from you all. Is that still in process? Is it likely that you'll hire some of those deposit teams in coming quarters?
Mark DeFazio (President and CEO)
It's an interesting question. We've met with several, and none of them were really a good fit so far for a lot of different reasons, from cultural fit to pricing to loan expectations to support clients. There's just a whole host of parts to that conversation. And so far, we've never built this franchise based on teams for a lot of different reasons, but we did speak to several teams, but we have not made a decision on anyone. But I would put a low probability on that happening in 2024.
Mark Fitzgibbon (Managing Director and Head of FSG Research)
Mark, do you think some of these teams are getting unrealistic deals from other banks or other banks are paying too much to bring these teams on?
Mark DeFazio (President and CEO)
Well, I don't know what they negotiated. Perhaps they are better negotiators than me. But when I look at the three biggest hurdles, all nice people, by the way, coming into the bank, but culturally, it's a very difficult fit. They're used to working in teams. They're not integrated with the company. It's sort of out of character for what we've built here as a commercial bank. The kind of integration we have here, the kind of culture, not only works for our staff but it also works for our clients. Our clients expect that kind of relationship banking. So that's the problem, number one. Number two, on the way in, even if you think that the cost of those deposits are affordable today or efficient, you've got to dig in a little deeper and look at total compensation expectations.
What I found most problematic is the implication of loan expectations. A lot of these deposit teams represent a lot of real estate owners in multifamily. And although we have multifamily on the balance sheet, it will never be a primary asset class at MCB. It is a low-profitable business. So I don't want to set anybody up for failure. Encourage them to come here. We attempt to integrate them and then find out we can't replace the loans as they mature out of their existing banks in multifamily. So there's a few other conversation points. All nice people. I wish them well, but so far, it has not been a good fit for MCB for a lot of reasons.
Mark Fitzgibbon (Managing Director and Head of FSG Research)
Okay. And last question. Dan, the guidance you gave was super helpful. The one thing you didn't give guidance on was the provision. Based on your projection for $600 million-$800 million of loan growth and assuming no real changes to the economic model, what does that kind of spit out in terms of provisioning for the year?
Daniel Dougherty (EVP and CFO)
We should see about 1% of growth as our provision level. So I'm thinking $6-$8, maybe a little bit more, but I think $6-$8 is a good context for the provision for the remainder of the year.
Mark Fitzgibbon (Managing Director and Head of FSG Research)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question will come from Christopher O'Connell with KBW. Please go ahead.
Christopher O'Connell (Director of Equity Research)
Hey. Good morning.
Mark DeFazio (President and CEO)
Morning, Chris.
Daniel Dougherty (EVP and CFO)
Good morning, Chris.
Christopher O'Connell (Director of Equity Research)
Just wanted to start off on the expense side. I appreciate the guidance there and the guidance around the digital transformation costs as well. For the guidance of the $160-$163, that includes the core OPEX plus the digital transformation. Does that include the GPG wind-down and regulatory remediation costs?
Daniel Dougherty (EVP and CFO)
Yes, it does, Chris.
Christopher O'Connell (Director of Equity Research)
Okay. Got it. And can you just walk us through what exactly the regulatory remediation costs relate to and how much of the GPG wind-down and regulatory remediation costs remain, if any, over the course of the year?
Mark DeFazio (President and CEO)
It really is made up of legal and professional fees, consulting fees. As you all know, we have two public consent audits out there, which are expensive to unwind and get removed. We're confident that we can satisfy the expectations throughout this year. But consultants are very expensive today. Regulators expect independent validations done by third parties. You need lawyers to look at every document you send to regulators today. So it's an expensive and unfortunate expense, but we expect it to run off at the end of this year and not be in a 2025 run rate. Can't really allocate that. We're very precise on the budget for the technology integration, but regulatory expenses and legal fees and consultant fees is somewhat of a moving target. We think we gave you worst-case scenario in Dan's projections.
Christopher O'Connell (Director of Equity Research)
Got it. Do you have any ballpark as to the total dollar amount of those costs throughout 2024 that are included in the guide?
Mark DeFazio (President and CEO)
Not caught. Well, if you just back out well, you know how much we're spending in the digital transformation. Back out, take that off of what the guidance Dan just gave you. It gives you the ballpark of the exit fees and professional fees, the GPG exit cost and the professional fees. But we'd rather give you a worst-case scenario than to try and allocate it.
Christopher O'Connell (Director of Equity Research)
I guess what I'm getting at is when you back out the digital transformation costs and the rest of these one-time costs, as you're getting to 4Q2024, 1Q2025, do you have a sense of what the core kind of underlying expense run rate will shake out at?
Daniel Dougherty (EVP and CFO)
That's a really good question, Chris. And I've been noodling on that for quite some time. I come up with around $148-$150 as a range of core expenses by the time we get to 2025. Now, again, that estimate is very dependent on the timing and success of our remediation project, remediation requirements. But I think that's a good placeholder.
Christopher O'Connell (Director of Equity Research)
No. Yeah. That's super helpful. Thank you. And then just as far as really appreciate the color on the multifamily and office slides in the deck. It looks to me that there's, on the rent-regulated side and on the office side, no non-performers right now from what I could tell. How are you guys feeling about the maturities in those two buckets over the course of 2024? Do you guys have a good look into those borrowers and those credits? It looks a little bit lighter on the rent-regulated multifamily side, but about roughly a third, give or take, of the office kind of matures this year.
Mark DeFazio (President and CEO)
Yeah. I would expect that, with the exception of the credits that we want to keep and we reprice and keep it because we have a high retention rate here, the rest of them will get paid off. Out of the over $200 million in the first quarter, some of it was multifamily as well and perhaps some office. So we do not expect to be in a rollover situation where one cannot be refinanced or we would not be interested in refinancing the credit.
Daniel Dougherty (EVP and CFO)
I would add further that our credit team has looked at each one if it's maturing in 2024; we've already been in touch with the customers. And again, we don't detect any negative trends out there that are of a material nature to bring it to your attention.
Mark Fitzgibbon (Managing Director and Head of FSG Research)
Great. And just the timing of the GPG deposit rolloff, I know you guys covered Q2, but just given that there was actually kind of surprisingly growth this quarter in that category, how are you guys thinking about the timing of the rest of that rolloff into the back half of the year? Is it going to be more weighted toward Q3 or Q4, or is it pretty even across those two quarters?
Mark DeFazio (President and CEO)
I think based on our schedule, what we call B2C, by the end of the summer, by August, that should be complete. And then in the third and fourth quarter, the B2B deposit should be complete. But I would extend the B2C to the end of the summer to August.
Mark Fitzgibbon (Managing Director and Head of FSG Research)
Was the growth this quarter in B2C or B2B or a mix?
Daniel Dougherty (EVP and CFO)
It was a mix, actually.
Mark Fitzgibbon (Managing Director and Head of FSG Research)
Great. All right. That's all I had for now. Thanks for taking my questions.
Daniel Dougherty (EVP and CFO)
Thanks, Chris.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from Alex Lau with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Alex Lau (VP of Equity Research)
Hi. Good morning.
Mark DeFazio (President and CEO)
Morning, Alex.
Daniel Dougherty (EVP and CFO)
Hi, Alex.
Alex Lau (VP of Equity Research)
Staying on the GPG runoff schedule, what are your expectations for the quarterly pace of reduction in GPG fee income and expenses for the year?
Daniel Dougherty (EVP and CFO)
As you saw, in the first quarter, we printed $4 million of fee income. I don't expect that the decline in the second quarter is going to be materially different than that, but then as you get into Q3 and Q4, that it's going to accelerate rapidly. Again, $8 million-$10 million is my forecast for the entirety of the year, but I think that's the best way to think about it.
Alex Lau (VP of Equity Research)
Great. Thank you. On the $90 million increase in non-interest-bearing deposits this quarter, where did you see that come from in terms of deposit verticals? Looking ahead, where do you expect these balances to grow, if any?
Daniel Dougherty (EVP and CFO)
A significant portion of that was from the BaaS side. So some of it was from retail, but again, there was a good portion on the BaaS side, and it becomes part of the forecasted outflows over the remainder of the year.
Alex Lau (VP of Equity Research)
Great. Thank you. And then regarding the NPA that moved to current, were there any specific reserves, and do you expect any releases related to these loans?
Mark DeFazio (President and CEO)
Yeah. We're hoping that in the second quarter, when we report, we could release those reserves, but we want it to season for a bit. It's prudent to just let it season there at least for a quarter. But as I said, we have substantial interest reserves now that go well beyond the first quarter. So yeah, we'll take a hard look at that, but we're expecting it to get reversed in the second quarter.
Alex Lau (VP of Equity Research)
Great. Thank you for answering my questions.
Daniel Dougherty (EVP and CFO)
Thank you, Alex.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. This does conclude. We have a lot of time for questions. I would now like to turn the call back to Mark DeFazio for any additional or closing remarks.
Mark DeFazio (President and CEO)
Thank you. I do not have any specific remarks. I just want to thank everyone again for their continued support and the continued support of MCB. We have an exciting franchise here with a great growth story that will just continue. Thank you again, and enjoy the rest of your day and weekend.
Daniel Dougherty (EVP and CFO)
Thanks, everyone.
Operator (participant)
This does conclude today's conference call and webcast. A webcast archive of this call can be found at www.mcbankiny.com. Please disconnect your line at this time and have a wonderful day.