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    Mondelez International (MDLZ)

    MDLZ Q2 2025: 10%+ growth in emerging markets offsets US weakness

    Reported on Jul 30, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$69.71Last close (Jul 29, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$67.51Open (Jul 30, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-2.20(-3.16%)
    • Geographic Diversification & Emerging Markets Strength: The company achieved double-digit growth and significant share gains in emerging markets (e.g., Brazil, India, China), which helps offset North American softness.
    • Effective Pricing Strategy: Strong pricing initiatives in the chocolate category and planned incremental pricing in North America are supporting revenue growth despite weak category conditions.
    • Disciplined Cost & Margin Management: The management’s focus on cost control and a clear action plan (including selective price increases and strategic hedging on cocoa inputs) is expected to drive profitability improvements, particularly in Q4.
    • Persistent North American weakness: The U.S. market continues to show a downward trend, with category volumes down by 3%, and economic pressures such as consumer anxiety, tariffs, and inflation further weighing on demand.
    • Potential adverse impact from commodity volatility: If cocoa prices remain elevated, additional pricing measures may be necessary, which could further pressure volumes and narrow profit margins.
    • Retailer destocking concerns: Ongoing retailer destocking, driven by cash flow management and a broader consumption slowdown, may signal underlying issues in sustaining channel demand.
    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    North America

    Second half of FY 2025

    no prior guidance [N/A]

    No material rebound anticipated for the rest of the year. Incremental pricing will take effect soon due to rising inflation and higher costs

    no prior guidance

    Chocolate Elasticity

    Second half of FY 2025

    no prior guidance [N/A]

    Vigilance on chocolate elasticity for the second half of the year, considering the heat wave in Europe affecting chocolate volumes. Caution regarding tariffs and consumer confidence in the U.S.

    no prior guidance

    Emerging Markets

    Second half of FY 2025

    no prior guidance [N/A]

    Continued double-digit growth expected, with sustained volume and value growth. Multiple waves of pricing implemented in major markets like India and Brazil, with caution about elasticity impacts

    no prior guidance

    Biscuits Business

    Second half of FY 2025

    no prior guidance [N/A]

    Excluding North America, the biscuits business is performing well, with year-to-date revenue up more than 7%. This trend is projected to continue

    no prior guidance

    Cocoa Prices

    Second half of FY 2025

    no prior guidance [N/A]

    Monitoring cocoa market fundamentals, anticipating potential upside in supply and demand for the 2026 season, which could lead to cocoa prices decreasing

    no prior guidance

    Media Investment

    Second half of FY 2025

    no prior guidance [N/A]

    Plans to increase media investment next year to support brands and maintain volume in the chocolate category, addressing the weak consumer situation in North America

    no prior guidance

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Geographic Diversification

    Emphasized robust performance in Europe with growth in key markets such as the U.K., France, and Germany, and noted resilience despite global trade volatility

    Highlighted a strong global balance with Europe showing good results and North America struggling, while the rest-of-world helped offset weaknesses

    Recurring topic with a shift in emphasis; while Q1 focused on European growth, Q2 stresses balancing North America weakness with strength in other regions

    Emerging Markets Strength

    Discussed emerging markets performance with overall modest growth (3.9%) and mixed results across regions including strength in Brazil and China but softness in India and Southeast Asia

    Reported double-digit growth in emerging markets with strong share gains in Brazil, India, and Mexico, despite some softness in Mexico

    Consistent focus with more positive and robust growth sentiment in Q2 compared to the mixed performance in Q1

    Effective Pricing Strategy and Execution

    Detailed execution of aggressive pricing in the chocolate segment, successful regional pricing in Europe and emerging markets, and a well-managed RGM strategy with stable elasticity around 0.5%

    Announced incremental pricing in North America targeting cocoa‐impacted items along with continued global RGM actions and selective price increases

    Recurring topic; both periods stress effective pricing with Q2 placing additional emphasis on “surgical” pricing in North America while maintaining the overall strategy

    Cost & Margin Management and Commodity Procurement

    Focused on better-than-expected profit dollar generation, productivity initiatives accelerating cost control, and opportunistic procurement of commodities while managing tariff impacts

    Emphasized cost control and productivity improvements amid North American challenges, while leveraging favorable cocoa butter prices and benefits from commodity procurement

    Sustained focus with Q2 adding emphasis on cost control in a challenging consumer sentiment environment compared to Q1’s positive productivity momentum

    Commodity Volatility, Cocoa Prices & Inflation

    Addressed record cocoa inflation, supply-demand pressures, and the need for pricing to manage rising costs, with heavy emphasis on elasticity and innovation to combat inflationary pressures

    Noted an improvement in cocoa prices with levels dropping below a key benchmark and favorable cocoa butter pricing, while still highlighting inflation’s impact on consumer sentiment

    Consistent topic; sentiment shifts from a focus on record inflation in Q1 to a more measured outlook in Q2 with some commodity market improvements, yet inflation remains a concern

    North American Market Weakness & U.S. Consumer Sentiment

    Detailed significant destocking in North America, a decline in the biscuits category, and sharp drops in consumer confidence driven by inflation fears and economic uncertainty

    Continued to highlight consumer anxiety, channel shifts to essentials, and challenges in North America with incremental pricing introduced to mitigate the effect of consumer caution

    Persisting challenge in both periods; Q2 reiterates the issues from Q1 but with additional strategic pricing and channel initiatives to address consumer sentiment

    Retailer Destocking and Channel Demand Concerns

    Reported sizeable retailer destocking leading to a significant volume headwind, particularly in food and mass channels, with expectations that these impacts would be mostly nonrecoverable

    Identified destocking as driven by retailers’ efforts to manage cash flow; however, management now expects the issue to be resolved by Q3 and is shifting focus to alternative channels like value and e-commerce

    Recurring topic with a positive turn; Q1 highlighted large headwinds while Q2 shows optimism for resolution and strategic channel shifting

    Innovative Product Launches and New Product Initiatives

    Highlighted new product initiatives such as the Oreo collaboration and the Cadbury Dairy Milk Biscoff bar innovation, with expansion plans in multiple markets

    No specific discussion of new product launches was mentioned during the period [N/A]

    Topic no longer mentioned in Q2, indicating a potential de-prioritization or shift in focus from product innovation compared to Q1 [N/A]

    Robust Seasonal Performance and Rebound Potential

    Reported robust Easter season performance with strong share gains in key markets and an anticipated rebound in North America and emerging markets driven by seasonal factors

    No explicit reference to robust seasonal performance or rebound potential was noted, aside from indirect mentions of seasonal effects in commodity and chocolate volume trends

    Topic less emphasized in Q2; whereas Q1 detailed strong seasonal performance and rebound expectations, Q2 lacks an explicit focus on this area

    Tariff Headwinds and Trade Pressure

    Mentioned tariffs as a small, manageable impact with some additional trade pressures leading to retailer destocking; overall considered manageable with supplier negotiations

    Discussed tariffs as exacerbating consumer anxiety and driving retailer destocking, with a focus on anticipating tariff effects later in the year

    Recurring topic with increased emphasis in Q2 on the negative impacts of tariffs on consumer sentiment and inventory behavior compared to the more measured tone in Q1

    Margin Dilution Risk from Aggressive Pricing amid Volume Declines

    Directly addressed the risks associated with aggressive pricing balanced against volume declines, noting manageable elasticity and a long-term reinvestment strategy to protect margins despite a 3.5% volume/mix decline

    Although aspects of pricing and volume management are discussed, there is no explicit mention of margin dilution risk under this label in Q2; pricing is described as “surgical” with volume declines largely attributed to market sentiment

    Less explicitly discussed in Q2; while Q1 directly addressed margin dilution concerns, Q2 focuses more on targeted pricing actions and cost management without explicitly framing it as a margin dilution risk

    1. Cocoa Outlook
      Q: Will cocoa force extra pricing?
      A: Management noted that if cocoa remains elevated, additional pricing measures might be needed; however, if the market corrects as anticipated, their current actions should suffice, with favorable contracts already in place.

    2. North America Outlook
      Q: How will US market improve amid weaknesses?
      A: They detailed that despite current US softness, incremental pricing and targeted channel strategies are being deployed to stabilize and boost profitability, especially expecting a rebound by Q4.

    3. Share Repurchase
      Q: Is share buyback strategy continuing?
      A: The management stressed a pragmatic approach, using compelling share prices and diversified debt hedges to continue repurchases while balancing their capital structure.

    4. Retailer Destocking
      Q: Why did retailers reduce inventories?
      A: They explained that retailers trimmed stock to manage cash flow amid a slowing consumption trend, expecting inventory levels to normalize in Q3 as conditions improve.

    5. GLP-1 Impact
      Q: Does GLP-1 reduce US volume?
      A: Management assessed the impact of GLP-1s as minimal—only about 4% market penetration causing an almost negligible overall effect on consumer volume.

    Research analysts covering Mondelez International.