Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

Q2 2025 delivered accelerated top-line growth: net revenues up 7.7% to $8.98B, Organic Net Revenue +5.6% (Pricing +7.1 pp; Volume/Mix −1.5 pp). Adjusted EPS was $0.73 and GAAP diluted EPS was $0.49 .
Versus estimates, Mondelez beat on revenue ($8.98B vs $8.84B*) and Adjusted EPS ($0.73 vs $0.68*), while EBITDA slightly underperformed consensus ($1.507B* vs $1.523B*). Guidance was maintained: Organic Net Revenue ≈ +5%, Adjusted EPS −~10% (constant FX), FCF $3B+ .
Mix-positive momentum in Europe (reported Net Revenue +18.7% YoY), and Emerging Markets strength (+11.6% YoY) offset continued softness in North America (−3.5% YoY) .
Cocoa inflation and mark-to-market derivative impacts drove margin pressure; management highlighted pricing/RGM actions and productivity to protect GP dollars and profitability exiting 2025, with a pragmatic stance on 2026 depending on cocoa normalization .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Europe and AMEA strength: Europe reported Net Revenue +18.7% YoY with organic +12.5%; AMEA +14.7% reported and +8.6% organic, demonstrating broad-based resilience and share gains .
Pricing execution underpinning chocolate: “strong pricing execution in our chocolate business and robust growth across the vast majority of our geographies” (Dirk Van de Put) .
Capital return and dividend: $2.9B returned to shareholders H1’25; quarterly dividend increased 6% to $0.50 per share (payable Oct 14, 2025) .

What Went Wrong

North America softness persists: reported Net Revenue −3.5% YoY and organic −3.4%; management flagged consumer anxiety, channel shifting, and retailer destocking impacts .
Adjusted margin compression: Adjusted gross margin down 680 bps YoY to 33.7% and Adjusted operating margin down 360 bps to 14.3% on higher input costs and unfavorable mix despite pricing .
Cocoa-driven headwinds: Q2 benefited from favorable YoY derivative mark-to-market vs prior year, but underlying operations showed declines; adjusted EPS fell −14.5% at constant FX YoY .

Financial Results

Consolidated P&L vs prior year and prior quarter

Metric	Q2 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Net Revenues ($USD Billions)	$8.343	$9.313	$8.984
Diluted EPS (GAAP) ($)	$0.45	$0.31	$0.49
Adjusted EPS ($)	$0.83	$0.74	$0.73
Gross Margin % (Reported)	33.5%	26.1%	32.7%
Gross Margin % (Adjusted)	40.5%	33.4%	33.7%
Operating Margin % (Reported)	10.2%	7.3%	13.0%
Operating Margin % (Adjusted)	17.9%	14.8%	14.3%

Notes:

Q2 reported margins improved sequentially vs Q1 due to favorable YoY mark-to-market vs 2024, while adjusted margins declined YoY on input inflation and mix .

Revenue components and pricing/volume

KPI	Q2 2024	Q2 2025
Organic Net Revenue Growth (%)	—	5.6%
Pricing (pp)	—	+7.1 pp
Volume/Mix (pp)	—	−1.5 pp

Segment Net Revenue (Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024)

Region	Q2 2024 ($MM)	Q2 2025 ($MM)	Reported YoY %	Organic YoY %
Latin America	$1,232	$1,194	−3.1%	+5.4%
AMEA	$1,587	$1,821	+14.7%	+8.6%
Europe	$2,874	$3,412	+18.7%	+12.5%
North America	$2,650	$2,557	−3.5%	−3.4%
Total	$8,343	$8,984	+7.7%	+5.6%

Markets (Q2 2025)

Market	Q2 2024 ($MM)	Q2 2025 ($MM)	Reported YoY %	Organic YoY %
Emerging Markets	$3,260	$3,638	+11.6%	+10.2%
Developed Markets	$5,083	$5,346	+5.2%	+2.7%
Total	$8,343	$8,984	+7.7%	+5.6%

Additional KPIs (YTD through Q2 2025)

KPI	YTD 2025
Cash from Operations ($B)	$1.4
Free Cash Flow ($B)	$0.8
Capital Returned ($B)	$2.9
Dividend per share (Declared)	$0.50 (quarterly)

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance (Q1 2025)	Current Guidance (Q2 2025)	Change
Organic Net Revenue Growth	FY 2025	≈ +5%	≈ +5%	Maintained
Adjusted EPS (constant FX)	FY 2025	≈ −10%	≈ −10%	Maintained
Free Cash Flow	FY 2025	$3B+	$3B+	Maintained
FX impact on net revenue/EPS	FY 2025	Neutral est.	Neutral est.	Maintained

Context: Outlook framed amid elevated cocoa costs and macro/trade volatility; tariff scenarios not embedded .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q4 2024, Q1 2025)	Current Period (Q2 2025)	Trend
Cocoa inflation and hedging	Elevated cocoa pipeline pressured Q4 margins; multiple pricing waves planned for 2025; EPS growth expected in 2026 under both scenarios	Cocoa fundamentals improving; cocoa butter prices down vs last year; potential 2026 upside if supply > demand; continued RGM/pricing as needed	Cautiously improving; planning remains scenario-based
North America demand	Biscuit category soft; price-pack architecture rollout and growth channels; cautious 2025 outlook	Continued softness; surgical pricing; protect key price points/formats; alternate channels (club/dollar/value) to offset; Q3 “clean” post destocking	Stabilization actions; profitability rebound targeted by Q4
Europe chocolate elasticity/weather	European business resilient; pricing taking hold; benign elasticities (e.g., UK ~0.37)	Heat wave in June/July depressed volumes; volumes recovering as temperatures normalize; elasticity monitored closely	Temporary weather volatility; underlying demand intact
Capital allocation	$9B buyback authorization (2025–2027); opportunistic repurchases	Buybacks below $60 cited; pragmatic approach continues; diversified debt and net investment hedges highlighted	Continuity; flexibility maintained
GLP-1 impact	Indulgent snacking resilient; monitoring health trends	No material GLP-1 impact; current category weakness economic, not GLP-1-driven	No change; limited risk observed

Management Commentary

“We posted accelerated top-line growth in Q2 2025 underpinned by strong pricing execution in our chocolate business and robust growth across the vast majority of our geographies” (CEO Dirk Van de Put) .
“We have announced incremental pricing [in North America]…protecting specific formats and magic price points, with actions to boost productivity and cost control; expect profitability rebound particularly in Q4” (CFO Luca Zaramella) .
On cocoa: “Fundamentals are going in the right direction…grinding down 7–8%…cocoa butter prices dramatically down vs last year…contracts at roughly half the prior ratio” (CFO) .
On reinvestment: “We will have to increase our investment in our brands…chocolate volumes around the world down 6–7%…appropriate to increase our media investment next year” (CEO) .
On retailer destocking: “Driven by cash flow management and overall slowdown in consumption…and tariffs; expect Q3 to be clean on retailer inventory” (CEO) .

Q&A Highlights

North America strategy: Surgical pricing to protect $3–$4 pack “magic” price points and key multipacks; expand alternate/value channels to drive share and profitability (rebound targeted in Q4) .
Cocoa outlook and 2026 planning: Two scenarios—if elevated, more pricing; if down, volume recovery and earnings upside; continued hedging and RGM waves; focus on GP dollar protection .
Europe chocolate volumes: Weather-driven dip in June/July with recovery as temperatures normalize; elasticity being closely monitored .
Capital allocation: Opportunistic buybacks (below $60 cited), diversified FX debt structure, net investment hedges underpin balance sheet resilience .
GLP-1: No noticeable impact; current U.S. snacking weakness viewed as macroeconomic .

Estimates Context

Q2 2025 consensus vs actual: Revenue $8.84B* estimate vs $8.98B actual (beat); Primary EPS $0.68* estimate vs Adjusted EPS $0.73 actual (beat); EBITDA $1.523B* estimate vs $1.507B* actual (slight miss). Values retrieved from S&P Global. *
Near-term consensus (Q3/Q4 2025): Primary EPS ~$0.71* for Q3 and ~$0.71* for Q4; Revenue ~$9.67B* Q3 and ~$10.33B* Q4. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Metric	Q2 2025 Estimate	Q2 2025 Actual
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$8.842*	$8.984
Primary EPS ($)	$0.677*	$0.73 (Adjusted)
EBITDA ($USD Billions)	$1.523*	$1.507*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Implications: Sell-side models likely revise up revenue and Adjusted EPS trajectory for H2 in Europe/Emerging Markets, with cautious stance on North America margins and EBITDA given cost inflation and investment needs .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Top-line resilience with pricing-led growth and broad-based geographic strength offset North America softness; revenue and Adjusted EPS beats should support near-term sentiment *.
Margins reflect cocoa inflation and mix pressures; management is prioritizing GP dollar protection, productivity, and RGM/pricing to exit 2025 in a stronger profitability position .
Europe’s weather-related chocolate volume dip appears transitory; elasticity trends remain manageable, supporting H2 volume stabilization .
North America approach is pragmatic: protect price points and formats, channel mix shift, and surgical pricing—watch for profitability improvement by Q4 .
Dividend increase to $0.50 and ongoing buybacks signal capital return commitment amid macro volatility .
2025 guidance maintained; 2026 earnings growth targeted under both cocoa scenarios—pricing if elevated, earnings upside if cocoa normalizes .
Monitor regulatory/operational events: July 8 RITZ peanut butter labeling recall (no injuries reported; supplier packaging defect corrected) .

Appendix: Other Relevant Q2 2025 Press Releases

Voluntary recall of certain RITZ Peanut Butter Cracker Sandwiches due to mislabeling risk for peanut allergens; no injuries reported; corrective actions taken .