MDLZ Q2 2025: 10%+ growth in emerging markets offsets US weakness
- Geographic Diversification & Emerging Markets Strength: The company achieved double-digit growth and significant share gains in emerging markets (e.g., Brazil, India, China), which helps offset North American softness.
- Effective Pricing Strategy: Strong pricing initiatives in the chocolate category and planned incremental pricing in North America are supporting revenue growth despite weak category conditions.
- Disciplined Cost & Margin Management: The management’s focus on cost control and a clear action plan (including selective price increases and strategic hedging on cocoa inputs) is expected to drive profitability improvements, particularly in Q4.
- Persistent North American weakness: The U.S. market continues to show a downward trend, with category volumes down by 3%, and economic pressures such as consumer anxiety, tariffs, and inflation further weighing on demand.
- Potential adverse impact from commodity volatility: If cocoa prices remain elevated, additional pricing measures may be necessary, which could further pressure volumes and narrow profit margins.
- Retailer destocking concerns: Ongoing retailer destocking, driven by cash flow management and a broader consumption slowdown, may signal underlying issues in sustaining channel demand.
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
North America | Second half of FY 2025 | no prior guidance [N/A] | No material rebound anticipated for the rest of the year. Incremental pricing will take effect soon due to rising inflation and higher costs | no prior guidance |
Chocolate Elasticity | Second half of FY 2025 | no prior guidance [N/A] | Vigilance on chocolate elasticity for the second half of the year, considering the heat wave in Europe affecting chocolate volumes. Caution regarding tariffs and consumer confidence in the U.S. | no prior guidance |
Emerging Markets | Second half of FY 2025 | no prior guidance [N/A] | Continued double-digit growth expected, with sustained volume and value growth. Multiple waves of pricing implemented in major markets like India and Brazil, with caution about elasticity impacts | no prior guidance |
Biscuits Business | Second half of FY 2025 | no prior guidance [N/A] | Excluding North America, the biscuits business is performing well, with year-to-date revenue up more than 7%. This trend is projected to continue | no prior guidance |
Cocoa Prices | Second half of FY 2025 | no prior guidance [N/A] | Monitoring cocoa market fundamentals, anticipating potential upside in supply and demand for the 2026 season, which could lead to cocoa prices decreasing | no prior guidance |
Media Investment | Second half of FY 2025 | no prior guidance [N/A] | Plans to increase media investment next year to support brands and maintain volume in the chocolate category, addressing the weak consumer situation in North America | no prior guidance |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
---|---|---|---|
Geographic Diversification | Emphasized robust performance in Europe with growth in key markets such as the U.K., France, and Germany, and noted resilience despite global trade volatility | Highlighted a strong global balance with Europe showing good results and North America struggling, while the rest-of-world helped offset weaknesses | Recurring topic with a shift in emphasis; while Q1 focused on European growth, Q2 stresses balancing North America weakness with strength in other regions |
Emerging Markets Strength | Discussed emerging markets performance with overall modest growth (3.9%) and mixed results across regions including strength in Brazil and China but softness in India and Southeast Asia | Reported double-digit growth in emerging markets with strong share gains in Brazil, India, and Mexico, despite some softness in Mexico | Consistent focus with more positive and robust growth sentiment in Q2 compared to the mixed performance in Q1 |
Effective Pricing Strategy and Execution | Detailed execution of aggressive pricing in the chocolate segment, successful regional pricing in Europe and emerging markets, and a well-managed RGM strategy with stable elasticity around 0.5% | Announced incremental pricing in North America targeting cocoa‐impacted items along with continued global RGM actions and selective price increases | Recurring topic; both periods stress effective pricing with Q2 placing additional emphasis on “surgical” pricing in North America while maintaining the overall strategy |
Cost & Margin Management and Commodity Procurement | Focused on better-than-expected profit dollar generation, productivity initiatives accelerating cost control, and opportunistic procurement of commodities while managing tariff impacts | Emphasized cost control and productivity improvements amid North American challenges, while leveraging favorable cocoa butter prices and benefits from commodity procurement | Sustained focus with Q2 adding emphasis on cost control in a challenging consumer sentiment environment compared to Q1’s positive productivity momentum |
Commodity Volatility, Cocoa Prices & Inflation | Addressed record cocoa inflation, supply-demand pressures, and the need for pricing to manage rising costs, with heavy emphasis on elasticity and innovation to combat inflationary pressures | Noted an improvement in cocoa prices with levels dropping below a key benchmark and favorable cocoa butter pricing, while still highlighting inflation’s impact on consumer sentiment | Consistent topic; sentiment shifts from a focus on record inflation in Q1 to a more measured outlook in Q2 with some commodity market improvements, yet inflation remains a concern |
North American Market Weakness & U.S. Consumer Sentiment | Detailed significant destocking in North America, a decline in the biscuits category, and sharp drops in consumer confidence driven by inflation fears and economic uncertainty | Continued to highlight consumer anxiety, channel shifts to essentials, and challenges in North America with incremental pricing introduced to mitigate the effect of consumer caution | Persisting challenge in both periods; Q2 reiterates the issues from Q1 but with additional strategic pricing and channel initiatives to address consumer sentiment |
Retailer Destocking and Channel Demand Concerns | Reported sizeable retailer destocking leading to a significant volume headwind, particularly in food and mass channels, with expectations that these impacts would be mostly nonrecoverable | Identified destocking as driven by retailers’ efforts to manage cash flow; however, management now expects the issue to be resolved by Q3 and is shifting focus to alternative channels like value and e-commerce | Recurring topic with a positive turn; Q1 highlighted large headwinds while Q2 shows optimism for resolution and strategic channel shifting |
Innovative Product Launches and New Product Initiatives | Highlighted new product initiatives such as the Oreo collaboration and the Cadbury Dairy Milk Biscoff bar innovation, with expansion plans in multiple markets | No specific discussion of new product launches was mentioned during the period [N/A] | Topic no longer mentioned in Q2, indicating a potential de-prioritization or shift in focus from product innovation compared to Q1 [N/A] |
Robust Seasonal Performance and Rebound Potential | Reported robust Easter season performance with strong share gains in key markets and an anticipated rebound in North America and emerging markets driven by seasonal factors | No explicit reference to robust seasonal performance or rebound potential was noted, aside from indirect mentions of seasonal effects in commodity and chocolate volume trends | Topic less emphasized in Q2; whereas Q1 detailed strong seasonal performance and rebound expectations, Q2 lacks an explicit focus on this area |
Tariff Headwinds and Trade Pressure | Mentioned tariffs as a small, manageable impact with some additional trade pressures leading to retailer destocking; overall considered manageable with supplier negotiations | Discussed tariffs as exacerbating consumer anxiety and driving retailer destocking, with a focus on anticipating tariff effects later in the year | Recurring topic with increased emphasis in Q2 on the negative impacts of tariffs on consumer sentiment and inventory behavior compared to the more measured tone in Q1 |
Margin Dilution Risk from Aggressive Pricing amid Volume Declines | Directly addressed the risks associated with aggressive pricing balanced against volume declines, noting manageable elasticity and a long-term reinvestment strategy to protect margins despite a 3.5% volume/mix decline | Although aspects of pricing and volume management are discussed, there is no explicit mention of margin dilution risk under this label in Q2; pricing is described as “surgical” with volume declines largely attributed to market sentiment | Less explicitly discussed in Q2; while Q1 directly addressed margin dilution concerns, Q2 focuses more on targeted pricing actions and cost management without explicitly framing it as a margin dilution risk |
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Cocoa Outlook
Q: Will cocoa force extra pricing?
A: Management noted that if cocoa remains elevated, additional pricing measures might be needed; however, if the market corrects as anticipated, their current actions should suffice, with favorable contracts already in place. -
North America Outlook
Q: How will US market improve amid weaknesses?
A: They detailed that despite current US softness, incremental pricing and targeted channel strategies are being deployed to stabilize and boost profitability, especially expecting a rebound by Q4. -
Share Repurchase
Q: Is share buyback strategy continuing?
A: The management stressed a pragmatic approach, using compelling share prices and diversified debt hedges to continue repurchases while balancing their capital structure. -
Retailer Destocking
Q: Why did retailers reduce inventories?
A: They explained that retailers trimmed stock to manage cash flow amid a slowing consumption trend, expecting inventory levels to normalize in Q3 as conditions improve. -
GLP-1 Impact
Q: Does GLP-1 reduce US volume?
A: Management assessed the impact of GLP-1s as minimal—only about 4% market penetration causing an almost negligible overall effect on consumer volume.
Research analysts covering Mondelez International.