MetLife - Q3 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the MetLife Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Instructions will be given at that time. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. Before we get started, I refer you to the cautionary note about forward-looking statements in yesterday's earnings release and to risk factors discussed in MetLife's SEC filings. With that, I will now turn the call over to John Hall, Global Head of Investor Relations.

John Hall (Global Head of Investor Relations)

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us for MetLife's third quarter 2023 earnings call. Before we begin, I point you to the information on non-GAAP measures on the investor relations portion of metlife.com, in our earnings release, and in our quarterly financial supplements, which you should review. On the call this morning are Michel Khalaf, President and Chief Executive Officer, and John McCallion, Chief Financial Officer. Also participating in the discussion are other members of senior management. Also, last night, we released a set of supplemental slides which address the quarter. The slides are available on our website. John McCallion will speak to them in his prepared remarks if you wish to follow along. An appendix to the slides features GAAP reconciliations and other information which you should similarly review. As usual, after prepared remarks, we will host a Q&A session.

We will end Q&A just prior to the top of the hour. In fairness to everyone, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. With that, over to Michel.

Michel Khalaf (President and CEO)

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. As you can see from the report we posted last night, MetLife delivered another quarter of strong underlying results with sustained business momentum. MetLife's capacity to perform across a wide range of economic scenarios bears testament to the resilience of our all-weather strategy and is characterized by our unyielding focus on execution. In concentrating on those elements within our control, such as balance sheet security, investment performance, reserve adequacy, responsible growth, expense efficiency, and capital deployment, to name just a few, we have positioned MetLife to generate significant value for our shareholders and other stakeholders for many years to come. Turning to the quarter, we reported adjusted earnings of $1.5 billion or $1.97 per share.

Notable items in the quarter included our annual actuarial assumption review and other insurance adjustments, which had a positive impact of only $14 million or $0.02 per share on adjusted earnings. Excluding notable items, adjusted earnings per share were $1.95, up 43% from a year ago. As we previously indicated, variable investment income of $179 million fell below our quarterly outlook expectation. Private equity returns totaled 1.4%, while real estate equity returns trailed at -3%. In the aggregate, net income for the third quarter was $422 million, compared to $1.1 billion in the prior year period. The third quarter result reflects the negative impact of certain required accounting adjustments associated with our previously announced reinsurance transaction.

Net derivative losses related to interest rate and foreign exchange hedges helped to protect our balance sheet, further reduced net income. Our investment portfolio has stayed up in quality and continues to perform well. Underscoring that quality, the credit metrics associated with our real estate portfolio remain largely unchanged sequentially, and we did not incur material credit losses during the third quarter. Moving to MetLife's business performance in the quarter, I will start with our U.S. Group Benefits results. Adjusted earnings, excluding notable items, totaled $483 million, an all-time high and up 16% from a year ago. Underwriting results in the quarter for both group life and non-medical health were outstanding.

Year-to-date sales are up 11%, while adjusted PFOs are up more than 4% in the quarter, reflecting the impact of par contracts and within our 4%-6% outlook range, which we expect to achieve for the full year. In Group Benefits, we have invested significantly to integrate with the employer benefits ecosystem and enhance our enrollment capabilities, and perhaps more important, our re-enrollment capabilities. With a significant portion of our overall sales and group benefits coming from employee-paid products, our efforts to enhance enrollment and take-up rates are critical. Speaking of enrollment, we are about to enter open enrollment season. This is an important opportunity to review employee benefit needs and refresh selections for the upcoming year, something I encourage all of you to do. Several of the investments that I referenced aim to make this process easier for participants.

Further, we are activating emerging technologies that will help accelerate some of our Group Benefits initiatives, particularly around underwriting, claims, and the customer experience. We believe the impact of these investments will enable us, over time, to further leverage our size to drive greater scale advantage. Looking to Retirement and Income Solutions, or RIS, adjusted earnings, excluding notable items, totaled $409 million, up 60% from the prior year driven by higher recurring interest margins, better Variable Investment Income, and higher asset balances. Sales in the quarter were very strong across a range of products, including Pension Risk Transfer, with roughly $1.5 billion booked as well as structured settlements and U.K. longevity reinsurance. We are poised to generate close to $3 billion or more of sales in each of these two high-return product categories for the full year.

Just after the close of the third quarter, we released our 2023 pension risk transfer poll, an example of our thought leadership in this space, which we have been publishing for the past eight years. The poll, which surveyed plan sponsors with de-risking goals, revealed several important observations relevant to the growth prospect for the PRT market. Let me offer some examples. Following record PRT sales in 2022, market activity is expected to remain strong for the foreseeable future. Among companies who plan to de-risk, nine out of ten companies plan to completely divest all their defined benefit pension plan liabilities. Finally, 85% of plan sponsors expressed concern over missing an attractive window to secure an annuity buyout at competitive rates. These findings confirm what I have said before. We should continue to see a strong pipeline for our pension risk transfer business.

Now, shifting over to Asia, adjusted earnings, excluding notable items of $369 million, were 23% above a year ago on better variable investment income. Sales in the region on a constant currency basis were up 5%, led by life insurance in Japan and Korea. For Latin America, adjusted earnings, excluding notable items, totaled $199 million. Further, Latin America posted healthy 16% gains in both sales and adjusted PFOs on a constant currency basis. Our digital initiatives don't stop at the U.S. border, they extend around the world. For instance, in Latin America, we launched a digital platform that seamlessly integrates insurance solutions into the customer journeys of our LatAm business partners, such as banks, financial institutions, retailers, and others, which we expect will lead to even more responsible growth in the region over time.

Expanding on the subject of responsible growth, in the third quarter, we released our value of new business or VNB statistics for the full year 2022, and the results are powerful. To summarize, MetLife deployed roughly $3.7 billion of capital to support the origination of new business in 2022. This capital was put to work at an average internal rate of return of 17%, with an expected payback period of approximately six years. The value of new business generated in 2022 is around $2.3 billion, which represents the net present value of distributable cash flows in excess of the hurdle rate. When we reference terms at MetLife, like responsible growth and disciplined capital deployment, their application in our business is grounded in the systematic use of VNB.

It is hard to overestimate the positive impact this analytical tool has had in managing our business, starting with the deeply embedded practice of using IRRs in product pricing and ending with the establishment of business unit level VNB goals and targets. Simply put, VNB guides our effort to target and prioritize capital-efficient and shorter payback business and measure our progress and success in doing so. Over time, we've sought to maintain the right balance of capital deployment across organic growth, acquisitions, and share repurchase to drive value for shareholders. While we bought back $11.1 billion of our shares and executed $2 billion of acquisitions from 2019 to 2022, we similarly deployed $13.5 billion to support responsible growth over the same period. Moving to quarterly capital and cash, MetLife remained active with capital management during the third quarter.

We paid about $400 million of common stock dividends to shareholders, and we repurchased nearly $800 million of our common stock. In addition to our activity in the third quarter, we repurchased roughly another $250 million of our common stock during the month of October. Year-to-date through October, we have repurchased about $2.5 billion of our common shares, and there is approximately $2.7 billion remaining on our repurchase authorization. At the end of the quarter, we had $4.9 billion of cash at our holding companies, which is above the top end of the $3 billion-$4 billion liquidity buffer we maintain. Before I close, let me provide a quick update on our pending reinsurance transaction with Global Atlantic.

At this juncture, we have received all necessary regulatory approvals, and we expect to close in short order. We do not anticipate any material changes to the terms announced in May. In closing, we hosted a strategy session with our board of directors during the first week of October. This recurring annual meeting presents us with an opportunity to pressure test our strategy and to assess progress made toward our next horizon investor commitments. On that front, we are on track to exceed each commitment made at our December 2019 Investor Day, and I am confident we will continue to deliver for our shareholders and other stakeholders. Now, I'll turn it over to John to cover our performance in greater detail.

John McCallion (CFO)

Thank you, Michel, and good morning. I will start with the Q3 2023 supplemental slides, which provide highlights of our financial performance, including details of our annual global actuarial assumption review. In addition, I'll provide updates on our value of new business metrics, our liquidity and capital positions, as well as our commercial mortgage loan portfolio. Starting on page three, we provide a comparison of net income to adjusted earnings in the third quarter. Net investment losses include the mark-to-market impact on securities that are expected to be transferred with the pending reinsurance transaction with Global Atlantic that we announced at the end of May. For GAAP purposes, any increase in gross unrealized losses on these securities are required to be realized through net income until we close the transaction.

Also, we had net investment losses from our normal trading activity in the portfolio, given the rising interest rate environment. In addition, we had net derivative losses due to higher interest rates and strengthening of the U.S. dollar versus multiple currencies, primarily the Chilean peso and yen. That said, net derivative losses were partially offset this quarter by market risk benefit or MRB remeasurement gains due to higher interest rates. Overall, the portfolio remains well-positioned, credit losses continue to be modest, and the hedging program performed as expected. The table on page four provides highlights of our annual actuarial assumption review and other insurance adjustments, with a breakdown of the adjusted earnings and net income impact by business. Overall, the impact to adjusted earnings and net income was negligible.

In Group Benefits, we had a favorable impact from assumption changes in individual disability, primarily due to lower incident rates and favorable recoveries. In Retirement and Income Solutions, or RIS, we lowered our near-term assumption for mortality improvement, which resulted in an economic benefit, given the longevity products in this business. In Asia, the net unfavorable impact was due to lapse rate changes across life and accident and health products in Japan, as well as lowering lapse rates and expected fund returns for variable life products in Korea. On page five, you can see the third quarter year-over-year comparison of adjusted earnings by segment, excluding notable items associated with the annual assumption review and other insurance adjustments in both periods. Adjusted earnings were $1.5 billion, up 35% and 33% on a constant currency basis.

The primary drivers were higher variable investment income, or VII, strong recurring interest margins, and favorable underwriting margins. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.95, up 43% and 40% on a constant currency basis. Moving to the businesses, starting with the U.S., Group Benefits adjusted earnings were $483 million, up 16% versus the prior year period. The key drivers were favorable underwriting margins and solid volume growth. The group life mortality ratio was 83.6%, favorable to the prior year quarter of 85.7%, and below the bottom end of our annual target range of 85%-90%.

As a reminder, mortality results tend to be more favorable in the third quarter, so we would expect our group life ratio to be back within the 85%-90% range in the fourth quarter and full year of 2023. Regarding non-medical health, the interest-adjusted benefit ratio was 69% in the quarter, or 70.4%, excluding the favorable impact related to the annual assumption review that I mentioned earlier, and at the low end of its annual target range of 70%-75%. Turning to the top line, Group Benefits adjusted PFOs were up 3% year-over-year.

Taking participating contracts into account, which dampened growth by roughly 1%, the underlying PFOs were up approximately 4% year-over-year, primarily due to solid growth across most products, including continued strong momentum in voluntary and was within our 2023 target growth range of 4%-6%. In addition, Group Benefits sales were up 11% year-to-date, driven by strong growth across most products and markets. RIS adjusted earnings were $409 million, up 60% year-over-year. The primary driver was favorable investment margins due to higher recurring interest and variable investment income. Solid volume growth year-over-year also contributed to the strong performance. RIS investment spreads were 130 basis points.

Spreads excluding VII were 138 basis points, up 26 points versus Q3 of 2022, primarily due to higher interest rates as well as income from in-the-money interest rate caps. RIS adjusted PFOs, excluding pension risk transfers, were up 75%, primarily driven by strong sales of structured settlement products, growth in U.K. longevity reinsurance, and postretirement benefits. With regards to PRT, we added transactions worth approximately $1.5 billion in Q3 of 2023, bringing our year-to-date total to roughly $3.5 billion. Moving to Asia, adjusted earnings were $369 million, up 23% and 25% on a constant currency basis, primarily due to higher investment margins.

Asia's key growth metrics were solid, as general account assets under management on an amortized cost basis, as well as sales, both grew 5% year-over-year on a constant currency basis, driven by growth across most of the region. In Japan, sales on a constant currency basis were up 3% year-over-year, driven by strong life sales due to the ongoing momentum of a single premium FX life product that was relaunched April first of this year. In other Asia, sales on a constant currency basis were up 8% year-over-year, primarily driven by strong life sales in Korea in advance of a prospective regulatory change that took place on September first, that impacts low cash value whole life products.

Looking ahead, while we anticipate Asia year-over-year sales will decline in the fourth quarter, we expect full year 2023 sales growth to be at the top end or exceed our annual guidance range of mid to high single digits. Latin America adjusted earnings were $199 million, up 26% and 8% on a constant currency basis, primarily due to solid volume growth and favorable underwriting margins. Latin America's top line continues to perform well, as adjusted PFOs were up 32% and 16% on a constant currency basis, and sales were also up 16% on a constant currency basis, driven by strong growth in Mexico and Chile and solid persistency across the region.

EMEA adjusted earnings were $70 million, up 43% and 40% on a constant currency basis, primarily due to higher volume growth, recurring interest margins, as well as underwriting margins running favorable to expectations. This was partially offset by less favorable expense margins year-over-year. EMEA adjusted PFOs were up 9% on both a reported and constant currency basis, and sales were up 20% on a constant currency basis, reflecting strong growth across the region. MetLife Holdings adjusted earnings were $206 million, up 23%, primarily driven by higher variable investment income. Corporate & Other adjusted loss was $262 million, compared to an adjusted loss of $258 million in the prior year quarter. Higher expenses, including interest on incremental debt, were partially offset by higher net investment income.

The company's effective tax rate on adjusted earnings in the quarter was approximately 23% and within our 2023 guidance of 22%-24%. On page six, this chart reflects our pre-tax variable investment income for the prior five quarters, including $179 million in Q3 of 2023. The private equity portfolio of $14.9 billion had a +1.4% return in the quarter. Real estate equity funds of $2.2 billion had a -3% return. As of now, we anticipate PE returns to remain consistent with the second and third quarter, with a modest improvement in real estate funds in the fourth quarter. Therefore, VII would more closely resemble second quarter results. On page seven, we provide VII post-tax by segment for the prior five quarters.

As we have noted previously, each of the businesses holds its own discrete investment portfolios, which have been built to match its liabilities. As reflected in the chart, Asia, RIS, and MetLife Holdings continue to hold the largest proportion of VII assets given their long-dated liability profile, while Corporate & Other continues to hold higher VII assets than historical levels. Now turning to page eight, the chart on the left of the page shows the split of our net investment income between recurring and VII for the past three years in Q3 of 2022 versus Q3 of 2023. While VII has had lower than trend returns over the last few quarters, recurring income, which accounts for approximately 96% of net investment income, was up approximately $700 million year-over-year, reflecting higher interest rates and growth in asset balances.

Shifting your attention to the right of the page, which shows our new money yield versus roll-off yield over the past three years. New money yields continue to outpace roll-off yields in the recent quarters. In this quarter, our global new money yield continued its upward trajectory, coming in at 6.26%, 156 basis points higher than the roll-off yield. We expect this favorable trend to continue, assuming interest rates remain near current levels. Turning to page nine, I'll provide a few updates on our commercial mortgage loans. First, let me say that we are pleased with the commercial mortgage loan, or CML portfolio, which continues to perform as expected. As we have noted last quarter, our real estate team updated all U.S. office valuations through June thirtieth, assuming a 25% peak-to-trough valuation decline.

In this quarter, the team shifted its effort to revaluing other CML asset classes, which have not been under the pressure seen in the office sector. Not surprisingly, the average LTV increased only slightly as a result, with our CML portfolio now at an average LTV of 63%, up from 62% in the second quarter of 2023, and an average debt service coverage ratio of 2.3x, which represents no change versus 2Q 2023. The modest increase in LTVs and stable debt service coverage ratio are further indicators of the disciplined approach we take to investing in this asset class. The quality of our CML portfolio remains strong, with only 1.6% of loans having LTVs more than 80% and DSCRs less than 1x.

With regards to CML loan maturities, we now have successfully resolved almost 90% of the portfolio scheduled to mature in 2023, and our expectation remains for minimal losses on the portfolio. Our CML portfolio scheduled maturities over the next three years are very manageable: 10% in 2024, 13% in 2025, and 16% in 2026. Now let's switch gears to discuss expenses on page ten. This chart shows a comparison of our direct expense ratio for the full year of 2022, as well as the first three quarters of 2023. In Q3 of 2023, the ratio was 12.3%. As we have highlighted previously, we believe our full year direct expense ratio is the best way to measure performance due to fluctuations in quarterly results. Our Q3 direct expense ratio benefited from solid top-line growth and ongoing expense discipline....

While we would expect our direct expense ratio to be higher in Q4, consistent with the seasonality of our business, we are confident we will beat our full year direct expense ratio target of 12.6% in 2023, despite the challenging inflationary environment. We believe this demonstrates our consistent execution and focus on an efficiency mindset. Now let's turn to page 11. This chart reflects new business value metrics for MetLife's major segments for the past five years, including an update for 2022. As mentioned by Michel, MetLife invested $3.7 billion of capital in 2022 to support new business. This was deployed at an average unlevered IRR of approximately 17%, with a payback period of six years, generating roughly $2.3 billion in value. I will now discuss our cash and capital position on page 12.

Cash and liquid assets at the holding companies were approximately $4.9 billion at September 30th, which is above our target cash buffer of $3-$4 billion and higher than our $4.2 billion at June 30th. The cash of the holding companies reflects the net effects of subsidiary dividends, a $1 billion senior debt issuance in July, payment of our common stock dividend, share repurchases of roughly $800 million in the third quarter, as well as holding company expenses and other cash flows. In addition, we have repurchased shares totaling approximately $250 million in October. For our U.S. companies, preliminary third quarter year-to-date 2023 statutory operating earnings were approximately $3.1 billion, while net income was approximately $2.1 billion.

Statutory operating earnings increased by approximately $1.6 billion year-over-year, primarily driven by favorable underwriting, partially offset by higher expenses. We estimate that our total U.S. statutory adjusted capital was approximately $17.7 billion as of September 30, 2023, up 2% from June 30, 2023. This increase was primarily due to operating earnings, partially offset by dividends paid and net investment losses. Total U.S. statutory adjusted capital has absorbed a negative impact of roughly $300 million associated with the investments expected to be transferred to Global Atlantic, which will be recovered upon closing. Finally, we expect the Japan solvency margin ratio to be approximately 600% as of September 30, which we based on statutory statements that will be filed in the next few weeks. Let me conclude with a few points.

First, while VII remains below historical returns, core spreads remain robust and continue to benefit from higher yield environment. Second, the underlying strength of our business fundamentals continues to be displayed with strong top-line growth, coupled with disciplined underwriting and expense management. Finally, our strong value of new business metrics provide further evidence of our disciplined approach to deploying capital to its highest and best use, consistent with our all-weather strategy. To close, MetLife remains in a position of strength, given our balance sheet, free cash flow generation, and diversification of our market-leading businesses. We are committed to deploying capital to achieve responsible growth and building sustainable value for our customers and our shareholders. With that, I will turn the call back to the operator for your questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press one, then zero on your telephone keypad. You will hear acknowledgment that your line has been placed in queue. You may remove yourself from this queue by repeating the same one zero command. One moment, please, for the first question. We have a question from Ryan Krueger with KBW. Please go ahead.

Ryan Krueger (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Hey, thanks. Good morning. Can you provide some color on how January 1 renewals are shaping up so far in group benefits and also both in terms of persistency and the pricing dynamic in the market?

Ramy Tadros (Regional President of U.S. Business)

Good morning, Ryan. It's Ramy here. I would say we're still in the middle of the season. Recall, the middle part of the market is still kind of active right now. But from everything we can see so far, we are doing extremely well here. Persistency in national accounts continues to be exceptionally high. We are seeing a tick-up in the jumbo activity into next year as well, building on what we're doing this year. And with respect to our rate actions, we are getting the rates that the book needs in the market and continue to see that both in terms of new business as well as persistency.

Ryan Krueger (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Thanks. And then, in terms of capabilities within Group Benefits and M&A, you know, you've done a couple of things to round out the portfolio. Is there anything else you'd be interested in at this point, or do you feel like you have what you need to grow organically?

Michel Khalaf (President and CEO)

Yeah. Hi, hi, Ryan. It's it's Michel. Yeah, I mean, I think we're very pleased with the capabilities that we've built with the transactions that we've done in the last few years in Group Benefits. I think they've been highly complementary, and we're very pleased in how they've performed. Think about our PetFirst acquisition, our Versant acquisition. And we we continue to invest in this in this business. We've you know, we've said all along that you know, this is a business where scale matters.

And you know, to continue to meet customer expectations, you have to continue to make meaningful investment, something that we've done, and I think that's translating in terms of, you know, the momentum we're seeing, whether it's in variable benefits or in other areas. Whereas, you know, we don't see any gaps, when it comes to, you know, our product set or our capabilities. You know, we're always open to, you know, opportunities if we think, those make strategic sense, if we think, you know, they can, you know, help us accelerate revenue growth. You know, whereas we see a path to continue to grow at, you know, within the range that we've provided organically. If there was something, that would, help us accelerate that, that would make sense strategically, and that would make sense from a valuation perspective as well.

You know, we look for the type of, you know, transactions that are accretive over time, that clear a minimum risk-adjusted hurdle rate, and we're always going to also compare any transaction to other potential uses of capital. You know, at the end of the day, our focus pillar is about deploying capital to its highest and best use. So, you know, hopefully this, you know, this helps.

Ryan Krueger (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Great. Thanks a lot.

Operator (participant)

Next, we go to the line of Tom Gallagher with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

Tom Gallagher (Senior Managing Director)

Morning. A couple of questions on capital. The SMR in Japan seems kind of low at 600% now. Is that something to watch, or should we really be more focused on ESR since we're going to be pivoting to that new regime pretty soon? So that's the first question. The second is just the billion-dollar increase in debt. Is that part of the permanent capital structure, or are you prefunding a maturity there?

John McCallion (CFO)

Good morning, Tom. It's John. Thanks. So first question on SMR. Yeah, I think, I think it's a balance when you start to look at these metrics. Obviously, we're looking forward at ESR. Higher rates are positive to ESR, so I think there's a transition happening in the market. We don't have any concerns with being at a roughly 600% right now. Also, we have other tools if needed, to the extent that, you know, rates would rise further. We have other internal reinsurance transactions we could do, as of now. So no, no concerns from a capital, perspective or dividend capacity perspective. What was your second question?

Tom Gallagher (Senior Managing Director)

The billion-dollar debt increase.

John McCallion (CFO)

Yeah. Yeah. On debt, yes, so we issued the debt in July. That is not considered permanent capital. That is to prefund a maturity in the first quarter of next year.

Tom Gallagher (Senior Managing Director)

Okay, thanks. And then just one other quick one. There's slightly improved real estate returns expected for alternatives in 4Q. Is that because you have some property sales resuming and related gains, or is that just marks being stable?

John McCallion (CFO)

Yeah, I think it's more of the latter. I think it's just the, you know, we've in a way, you know, it's trailing a little bit of what's happened in PE, where, you know, we had kind of the markdown, and then we built... You know, you kind of gotten to a trough. And as we've said before, we, we feel like we'll bump along the bottom here for a little bit on, on some of these, you know, fund-related returns for some time, so, before we see kind of that U-shaped recovery. So it's, it's more that.

Tom Gallagher (Senior Managing Director)

Okay, thanks.

Operator (participant)

Next, we move on to Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Jimmy Bhullar (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Hi, good morning. So first, I had a question on just retirement spreads. Should we assume that core spreads in the RIS business will maybe compress a little bit as you go through 2024, given expiration of caps, or are there other inputs and takes?

John McCallion (CFO)

Morning, Jimmy. It's John. As you said, so good, good, strong core spreads this quarter, similar to last quarter. Just to help you guide to fourth, we think something in the same vicinity, maybe, you know, 135-140 is a good range to think about for a fourth quarter. And then, as you mentioned, over the course of 2024, we will have, some expiration of some of the caps. As we've said before, you know, this whole thing was constructed in a way for the caps to provide us time for the long rates to find their way into, into spreads and, you know, those things you've seen that come through, in a healthy way. So but we'll give some more guidance on that on the outlook call and, and provide some more detail as to how to think about 2024.

Jimmy Bhullar (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Okay. And then on the CRE portfolio, the metrics almost seem deceptively too good and stable. But, you mentioned, you've resolved 88% of your 2023 maturities. Are you resolving them similar to how you would have done in the past, with like, in terms of either extending them yourself or third-party financing or stuff? Or are there differences in how the maturities are being resolved now versus maybe a few years ago when things were much more stable in CRE?

John McCallion (CFO)

Yeah, it's John again. Thanks. I take issue with your deceptive comment, but besides that, only kidding. But on the maturities, I would. It's you know, roughly speaking, you know, we've talked about these contractual extension options. That's been about 60% of the maturities and how they've you know, they've all had contractual rights. It's if you're in good standing, you meet all the financial tests, they tend to be in the mid-50s LTV, so you know, strong financial metrics. You know, almost 30% of the—as well in terms of paid off or refinanced. And then the remainder is you know, probably 10% of that is loan modifications, and then the remaining you know, small single digits is the...

foreclosure or net payoff, which is honestly, that, that, that level is somewhat similar to what we've seen in the past, so nothing out of the ordinary, you know, given the environment. So I think overall, you know, roughly in line with, historical, maybe the, you know, people on the contractual options, those are floating rate. They're tending to wait to see whether they lock in their long-term rates. So maybe there's been a little extra, in terms of contractual extension options, but nothing out of the ordinary, I think, is the way to think about it.

Jimmy Bhullar (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

The remaining 12%, that's just like a matter of time and you're going through stuff, or is there something unique about those properties, either by property location or otherwise?

John McCallion (CFO)

Yeah. And the ratio, the levels I gave you just now, they incorporate what we expect for the remaining 12%. So nothing unique or out of the ordinary. So I think the punchline we would share is everything's effectively in line with what we said in the first quarter when we gave an outline of what our expectation was for the year.

Jimmy Bhullar (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question is from the line of Suneet Kamath with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Suneet Kamath (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Thanks. This first question on the value of new business slide. So the amount of capital you've been deploying is, you know, sort of been this $3.7 billion. It's, you know, pretty similar to what you did in 2018 and 2019. But given where interest rates are, are you seeing incremental opportunities to deploy more capital in the business? And then relatedly, should we expect that IRR of 17%, which I acknowledge is, is pretty healthy, does that have upside in this rate environment?

John McCallion (CFO)

Good morning, Suneet, it's John. Good question. So just in terms of capital deployment, remember last year, I mean, just one reason for that is we had the large IBM case that came through in the third quarter of last year. But nonetheless, like you point out, you know, very strong unlevered IRRs, strong payback periods, very pleased with the results. We saw some great results actually in Japan as well. That's actually helping boost the VNB as well over the course of 2022. In terms of IRRs, you know, some of the things we've talked about is we do see, I think broadly speaking, yes, I mean, we're starting to see, you know, demand for these annuity-type products to pick up. All right? So I think a volume aspect is emerging.

I'd say it's still emerging in the institutional and retail space, broadly speaking. In terms of IRR and pricing, typically the rate environment will price in. You know, the counterparties who are buying or selling, however you want to look at it, they're pricing in the current rate environment. So I wouldn't expect a big uptick in IRRs. I think 17% IRR is a pretty healthy level to be at. But, you know, we'll see how things evolve.

Suneet Kamath (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Okay, got it. And then just on capital, should we expect a pickup in the, so the pace of buyback once you close the Global Atlantic deal?

Michel Khalaf (President and CEO)

Yeah. Hi, Suneet, it's Michel. So, you know, really pleased with the, you know, the fact that we've secured all regulatory approvals for the Global Atlantic transaction. You know, as we had mentioned, you know, we expect that to add about 60 points to our RBC, and we consider that to be excess capital. You know, when we announced the transaction, we increased the authorization by $1 billion, and that was, you know, to signal the sustainability of our buyback activity. You know, we also have a track record post major divestitures of, you know, returning capital in a deliberate and expeditious manner. So, you know, I would suggest that we would, you know, we would conduct ourselves in the same manner here.

Suneet Kamath (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Okay, thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question is from Wes Carmichael with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Wes Carmichael (VP of Equity Research)

Hey, good morning. A follow-up on the group business. It seems like we're seeing pretty favorable results across the industry. Maybe not deceptively good, but definitely good. But just wondering what your outlook is for the industry to retain better margins in that business, or if it's kind of given back over pricing in the next couple of years.

Ramy Tadros (Regional President of U.S. Business)

Good morning, Wes. It's Ramy here. I mean, look, I think a couple of points to note here. So one, we're of course extremely pleased with our record quarter here, which is, by the way, a record even if you exclude the notable in the quarter. In general, what we tend to see in our results is there's seasonality, and while the dynamics are different by product line, in aggregate, the third quarter tends to be the most favorable over the course of the year. If I think for us, specifically on a go-forward basis, you should think about the mortality ratio, which is below the guidance for this quarter. Think about that coming back in the fourth quarter to be within line for our guidance range.

The other one I would perhaps talk about here is disability. I mean, disability continues to perform really well both with respect to incidents and recovery levels. Some of this favorability is stemming from a favorable macro environment. And we believe that favorability will over time; it's not going to happen in any given quarter, but will over time come back into pricing. But having said that, and I'll refer back to kind of Michel's comments on having real focus and strategic intent here in terms of how we're investing in this business.

The favorability we're seeing in disability is coming from solid underwriting, return to health capabilities, deployment of data, technology, predictive analytics in how we're running this business. In particular, investments we're also making in the leave and absence space. Those are resonating really well in the market, and we believe over time will allow us to, you know, fuel further growth and maintain pretty robust margins here. Those are not going away. Those are differentiating capabilities that we have and distinct competitive advantages that we will maintain and continue to invest in.

Wes Carmichael (VP of Equity Research)

Thanks, Ramy. And maybe sticking with the U.S. on the pension risk transfer market, it seems like maybe the market for full plan terminations has been heating up a little bit. I'm just wondering if you're willing to participate in those deals, and also what the pipeline looks like as the fourth quarter has been pretty busy historically.

Ramy Tadros (Regional President of U.S. Business)

Thanks. We're pretty pleased with our performance this quarter. Year to date, we've had $3.5 billion worth of sales. We've also added another $600 million of premium so far in the fourth quarter. And we see a very healthy pipeline ahead, and really, with a lot of visibility into 2024, in particular, in that jumbo end of the market, which is where we focus and where we have distinct competitive advantages. Our focus so far has been on the immediate, which are we only part of the market, and we see significant pipeline there, and we're able to win business at healthy IRRs. But, you know, we always continuously evaluate opportunities here, and as we've always stated, it's value over volume here.

And so, if we see opportunities with the right IRRs and the right returns and the right risk profile, we're always gonna be looking to evaluate those, as we go forward.

Wes Carmichael (VP of Equity Research)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Next, we go to the line of Alex Scott with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Alex Scott (Equity Research Analyst)

Hi. First one I had for you on LatAm. We continue to see good growth there. I think in the comments, you mentioned some of the digital initiatives and things like that, but wanted to see if you could extrapolate further just on the sustainability of the, you know, really robust growth that you've seen in PFOs and, you know, how we should think about that business going into 2024.

Eric Clurfain (Regional President of Latin America)

Yes. Hi, Alex. Thanks for the question. This is Eric. So, you know, we're, we're overall very pleased with, with our results, for the quarter. This is the fourth consecutive quarter of adjusted earnings in the $200 million range. The quarter's results are primarily driven by volume growth, favorable underwriting, as well as foreign currency tailwinds, which were partially offset by lower, recurring interest margins. On the top line side, you know, the positive, trajectory continues, as you mentioned, with solid double-digit growth, consistent, with our expectations. We're seeing growth across the region in both our retail and group business. We've been very deliberate, in, in expanding beyond our core avenues of growth, developing, third-party distribution channels such as banks, financial institutions, retailers, and others.

You know, we've made significant technology-related investments in that space, and a good example is what you referred to, that Michel mentioned, and is opening around the launch of our new integrated platform, which, you know, provides embedded insurance capabilities for our distribution partners, and thus creating a differentiating competitive advantage for us across the region. So all these factors, combined with, you know, our disciplined underwriting, pricing, as well as efficiency focus, are contributing to the solid earnings performance and sustained momentum.

Alex Scott (Equity Research Analyst)

Very helpful. And then second question was on net investment income. Wanted to see if you could help us just with, you know, the benefits of higher interest rates and what it means, you know, really for net investment income trajectory more broadly across the organization. And then also interested if there's any tactical things you can do, you know, anything you're doing allocation wise that we should consider related to net investment income.

John McCallion (CFO)

Good morning, Alex. It's John. So a couple of things to point to for your question. You know, we've given some sensitivities to interest rate movements in the past, and I think those are still fair, fair approach to thinking about the impact, generally driven by the benefits of roll-off and reinvest, and you're seeing that on the slides we shared. So that has an incremental benefit. Obviously, we've also done a lot to reduce our interest rate sensitivity over the years, so it's not a, you know, it's not a hockey stick per se, but there is a-- there's inertia there as you look at some of those sensitivities.

So, I don't know if I have a number to give because gross numbers maybe get lost, but, you know, those, those sensitivities are more from an earnings perspective, and those are probably pretty good things to follow and, and think through as you, as you kinda model out, you know, earnings growth. In terms of tactical, I think there's always tactical asset allocations that occur. You know, we have a view of relative values that we take into account, but certainly as rates grow, you know, fixed-oriented products, you know, gonna grow in relative value.

And we're seeing, you know, some, some unique opportunities out there. It's very, very helpful to have a wide breadth, of product and expertise to work through the opportunities that are in the space, and, you know, that's scale. You know, that scale is a big benefit. So, we're excited for the opportunities that are out there, and, having said that, we, you know, we've been maintaining an up in quality mentality when it comes to investments, and with these rates, it's worked pretty well.

Ramy Tadros (Regional President of U.S. Business)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question is from John Barnidge from Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

John Barnidge (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Good morning. Thank you. Question about the value of new business slide that's updated, not around the IRRs, but can you talk about how higher rates and your outlook for that volume to possibly increase along with the value of new business? Thank you.

John McCallion (CFO)

Yeah. Hey, John, it's John. Good, thanks for the question. I think, you know, there's a couple ways to think through that, as I mentioned in the earlier comment. I mean, we, we are seeing an increase in demand, you know, and, and that is... You know, we've been able to, to solve that fairly efficiently with just annual capital generation. And that, but we do think that, you know, it is gonna grow and, and we are, you know, constantly considering different ways to take advantage of that. I think, you know, eventually, as, and maybe a little bit to an earlier question, as, as volume and demand grows, you know, that could improve pricing to some degree. Right now, I think it's fairly consistent and adjust with interest rates.

But there is dynamics between volume and how that can also improve value, but it, that will take some time.

John Barnidge (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Thank you very much. My follow-up question, I know we're in the thick of renewal season for group benefits, but some retailers have started to comment about the impact from GLP or obesity treatments. How do you-- is that something that's come up within the renewal conversation at all? Just wanted to ask that. Thank you.

Ramy Tadros (Regional President of U.S. Business)

Yeah, we're not really... It's Ramy here, John. We're not really seeing any of those having any kind of material effect on our book of business. And, remember, we're not in the major medical, we're not providing Rx. We are group life players, and none of that is really having any material impact at this point.

John Barnidge (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question is from Mike Ward with Citi. Please go ahead.

Mike Ward (VP and Senior Analyst)

Thanks, guys. Good morning. I was just wondering if you could comment on the trends in Asia. You know, it seems like the economy in Japan at least is reengaging or reopening. So any thoughts on maybe the near-term outlooks there?

Lyndon Oliver (Regional President of Asia)

Hey, Mike, it's Lyndon here. So, just as we look at broadly Asia, I'll just comment on sales, and then maybe we can get into Japan more specifically. You know, overall, we've had a very strong quarter, and year-over-year sales continue to be very strong. We've seen a 5% growth overall, and in Japan, 3%. In Asia, in total, we've been up 8%, and that's driven broadly between Korea and China. If we look at the economy in Japan, it is really strong, but our sales are primarily, primarily driven by interest rates, and so the stronger interest rates have really helped us. So as long as that continues, we think, we've got a really solid platform on which to leverage the higher sales.

Mike Ward (VP and Senior Analyst)

Thanks. And then, maybe just, could you guys maybe speak to your appetite, specifically for inorganic growth in the U.S. around, you know, voluntary benefits? That'd be helpful. Thanks.

Michel Khalaf (President and CEO)

Yeah. Hi. Hi, Mike. It's Michel. So, you know, as I, as I mentioned earlier, you know, we don't see any gaps, when it comes to our, group benefits, business here. We've been growing voluntary at, you know, in the high teens for a number of years. The employee paid, component of our, sales is, you know, is, is also growing. You know, we're always open, to, you know, do something inorganically if we feel that it fits strategically, if it, you know, adds the capability, if it helps us accelerate revenue growth, provided it is, accretive over time and provided it also compares, favorably to other potential uses of capital.

So, you know, whereas there are no gaps, you know, we have M&A as a strategic capability here, and we'll deploy it if we believe it makes sense to do so and if it's a, you know, better use of capital compared to other potential uses.

Mike Ward (VP and Senior Analyst)

Thanks, Michel. Maybe just one follow-up on that. Is case size something that, you know, makes you, you know, consider or not consider M&A in group overall?

Michel Khalaf (President and CEO)

You know, meaning, Mike, you're referring to sort of deal size?

Mike Ward (VP and Senior Analyst)

No, sorry, like the target market, employer size.

Michel Khalaf (President and CEO)

Oh, I mean, not really. I mean, I would say, you know, we, we have scale across our businesses and, and, and across markets. You know, it's more around, you know, does one plus one equal more than two, if you like, in terms of what we have and what we are, potentially acquiring?

Mike Ward (VP and Senior Analyst)

Okay. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

We will turn the conference back to John Hall.

John Hall (Global Head of Investor Relations)

Great. Thank you, everybody, for joining us on this very busy morning for insurance earnings, and have a nice day. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.