MGM Resorts International - Earnings Call - Q2 2025

Executive Summary

• Q2 2025 delivered record consolidated net revenues of $4.40B (+2% YoY), with strength in MGM China and Regional Operations offsetting Las Vegas softness tied to the MGM Grand room remodel and lower table hold. Adjusted EPS was $0.79; GAAP diluted EPS was $0.18 due to a $208M pre-tax FX transaction loss. Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA was $647.5M (+2% YoY).
• Versus Wall Street: MGM beat consensus on revenue ($4.405B vs $4.317B) and on normalized/adjusted EPS ($0.79 vs $0.55), while company-reported EBITDA was well below the SPGI “EBITDA Consensus Mean” definition, indicating a metric mismatch versus MGM’s Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
• Segment performance: Las Vegas net revenues fell 4% YoY to $2.11B and Segment Adjusted EBITDAR declined 9%; Regional net revenues rose 4% to $965M and Segment Adjusted EBITDAR rose 7%; MGM China net revenues climbed 9% to $1.11B with record Segment Adjusted EBITDAR and market share of 16.6%.
• Guidance/narrative: BetMGM raised FY25 guidance to at least $2.7B revenue and at least $150M EBITDA; MGM reiterated >$150M in 2025 EBITDA enhancements; MGM Grand remodel accelerated to end of October to position for F1 and holiday demand; tax outlook updated to a ~$100M refund in 2025 (from ~$100M liability), tied to bonus depreciation in the “big, beautiful bill.”
• Capital returns: MGM repurchased 8M shares ($217M) in Q2, with ~$2.1B authorization remaining; share count is ~45% below early-2021. Management highlighted an implied valuation of ~3.4x trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA after assigning market values to MGM China and BetMGM.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• MGM China delivered record Segment Adjusted EBITDAR and a 16.6% market share; premium-mass focus drove consistent margin in the high-20% range and sequential share gains throughout the quarter. “Our share increased every month of the quarter.”
• Regional Operations achieved record second-quarter net revenues and slot win, with Segment Adjusted EBITDAR up 7% YoY; targeted capital upgrades (e.g., Borgata’s Asian/VIP expansion) are driving double-digit growth and market outperformance.
• BetMGM raised FY25 guidance to at least $2.7B revenue and at least $150M EBITDA; omnichannel funnel from Las Vegas surged Nevada actives (+30%) with improved retention post-visit; incremental revenue flow-through year-to-date at 66%.

What Went Wrong

• Las Vegas: Net revenues down 4% YoY, Segment Adjusted EBITDAR down 9%; MGM Grand accounted for ~80% of the adjusted EBITDA decline due to disruptive room remodel and abnormal hold; midweek softness persisted at value-oriented properties.
• GAAP EPS declined sharply to $0.18 vs $0.60 YoY, driven by a $208M pre-tax FX transaction loss tied to USD debt at a foreign subsidiary; FX and derivatives fair value changes materially impacted reported results.
• MGM Digital posted a larger loss YoY (-$26M vs -$14M), reflecting investment ramp-up (notably Brazil), though management indicated near-break-even ex-Brazil and stable full-year adjusted EBITDA expectations.

Transcript

Speaker 8

Good afternoon and welcome to the MGM Resorts International Second Quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Joining the call from the company today are Bill Hornbuckle, Chief Executive Officer and President, Corey Sanders, Chief Operating Officer, Jonathan Halkyard, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer, Gary Fritz, President of MGM Interactive, Kenneth Feng, Executive Director and President of MGM China Holdings, Hubert Wang, Chief Operating Officer and President of MGM China Holdings, and Howard Wang, Vice President and Investor Relations. Participants are in a listen-only mode. After the company's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. In fairness to all participants, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Please note this conference call is being recorded. Now, I would like to turn the call over to Howard Wang. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Chuck. Welcome to the MGM Resorts International Second Quarter 2025 earnings call. This call is being broadcast live on the internet at investors.mgmresorts.com, and we have also furnished our press release on Form 8-K to the SEC. On this call, we will make forward-looking statements under the safe harbor provisions of the federal securities laws. Actual results may differ materially from those contemplated in these statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ from these forward-looking statements is contained in today's press release and in our periodic filings with the SEC. Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or otherwise. During the call, we will also discuss non-GAAP financial measures when talking about our performance.

You can find the reconciliation to GAAP financial measures in our press release and investor presentation, which are available on our website. Finally, this presentation is being recorded. I will now turn it over to Bill Hornbuckle.

Speaker 5

Thank you, Howard. I want to start by focusing on a strength that often gets overlooked, which is the power of MGM's unmatched portfolio diversity. The benefits of having a global presence in both the brick-and-mortar and digital domains drove a record highest ever consolidated net revenue results this quarter. Our vision is to be the world's premier gaming entertainment company. Pursuing that vision is paying significant dividends as we generate revenues in multiple streams across the globe. You're seeing the power of our portfolio diversity strategy on full display this quarter. We've accelerated digital growth combined with record-setting results in China and at our regional properties, more than offset a choppy period in Las Vegas. We recognize that the substantial share buybacks completed in recent years must be coupled with an active growth pipeline to fully unlock the company's value.

In Q2, our diversity is proving to be the bridge uniting the benefits of a lower share count and growth. We are positioned at kickoff to unleash significant value with notable near-term catalysts in BetMGM and Las Vegas, and mid-to-long-term catalysts in MGM Digital and our development projects, both domestic and international. Our BetMGM North America venture reported their second quarter results yesterday, raising full-year 2025 guidance for a second time since the previous earnings call, which implies an adjusted EBITDA turnaround of nearly $400 million compared to last year.

In iGaming, there was solid growth in average monthly actives and key engagement metrics such as active player days, while sports betting continues to focus on the areas that drove first quarter profitability: more targeted player acquisition, tighter management of lower-value players, and retention of more valuable active players, all of which are benefiting from site components enhancements, including performance, discoverability, and most importantly, speed. With more efficient marketing spend, incremental revenue flow-through jumped to 66% year to date. This winning formula has given us greater conviction in our BetMGM North America venture's ability to generate $500 million of annual reported adjusted EBITDA in the coming years. Our Las Vegas resorts are also poised to drive results higher in the near term, and I want to take this opportunity to emphasize that Las Vegas remains fundamentally solid.

We saw a record Q2 table games volume and record slot volumes at our ultra-luxury properties. This quarter's adjusted EBITDA decline was, in fact, isolated from two specific factors. One, the MGM Grand accounted for over 80% of the decline, where results were impacted by a uniquely disruptive room remodel and severely abnormal hold and midweek weakness at two of our value-oriented properties. On the groups and convention side, our bookings are pacing up double digits thanks to a robust 2026 convention calendar that includes the return of ConAg. The Las Vegas Convention Center is spending $1.6 billion to renovate its legacy campus and expand the West Hall and remains on track to finish by the end of this year. We will also benefit from greater Las Vegas convention attendance, particularly with our expansive luxury offerings.

Las Vegas also recently celebrated the groundbreaking of the new $1.8 billion MLB stadium at the former site of Tropicana, which is expected to bring 400,000 new visitors annually to Las Vegas. This puts the NFL, the NHL, and MLB home venues, which also host a significant number of other sports and entertainment events, all within one mile of each other. The resulting Golden Triangle will be surrounded by MGM properties, and importantly, the Dome Stadium will bring meaningful game and entertainment inventory during the summer midweek periods, which will increase the value of our rooms during that period. Our exclusive Marriott relationship also continues to drive performance with a higher-quality customer. We remain on budget to book 900,000 room nights through the strategic channel and saw QQ room nights increase 31% this quarter versus last year.

Marriott customers consistently spend about $150 per room night more than all other customers, and year to date, the average over 20,000 room nights booked per week. This week, we averaged over 20,000 room nights booked this year per week. The pace has accelerated in July, and we had our best Marriott bookings week ever just two weeks ago. Our international presence brings us another near-term driver as we look to continue the momentum at MGM China, which absolutely shined in the second quarter with record adjusted EBITDA and market share of 16.6%. Representing the highest sequential gain amongst all concessionaires. What's even more impressive was that our share increased every month of the quarter, ending June at 1.3 times our first share of the market.

We now have all 28 villas at MGM Macau available as of this month, and while MGM Cotai has begun converting standard rooms into 63 new suites by Q1 of 2026, all of which will help us further uphold our complementary position. Of the properties, and MGM Macau is a leading player in the peninsula and Cotai as a preferred destination for premium mass players. We are also benefiting from the continued momentum of our domestic regional operations. Their stability is highly valued during times of volatility, and we achieved our best second quarter results in both net revenue and slot win. Three of our regional properties reported record high ever net revenues, and we saw strong performance across the gaming, hotel, and food and beverage segments. Customers have responded positively to our focused capital improvements, and New Jersey is a great example.

A few years ago, we upgraded the former Water Club into what is now the MGM Tower at Borgata, which since May has been complemented by an elevated Asian gaming and overall VIP experience, including a new bar and restaurant. The new 25,000-square-foot gaming space includes 51 tables, gaming salons, and a high-limit area. The customer response to thoughtful, targeted capital spending has been encouraging, driving double-digit GTR growth and outperforming the market by a wide margin since its debut. Beyond our numerous near-term catalysts, we have mid and long-term drivers that are making meaningful progress with each passing quarter, one of which is MGM Digital, our consolidated international digital business that does not include the BetMGM North America venture. The segment showed solid improvement, notably a near-break-even performance when excluding our investment in Brazil.

Our BetMGM Brazil venture partner, Grupo Globo, continues to provide us with beneficial flexibility in terms of marketing and investment, and our launch is making great strides as we are seeing all key measures increasing, including strengthening player fundamentals, and our bullish long-term view of the Brazilian market remains unchanged. Stateside, towards the end of the second quarter, we launched MGM's live studio from the gaming floor at the MGM Grand. Content from our live dealer studio, which is currently available in seven countries, is provided internally to our international operations and is also monetized to other online operators. Earlier this month, we launched our own sportsbook product in the second market, made possible by our acquisition of Tipico's U.S. technology platform, as the integration into our in-house tech stack continues as planned. On the development front in Japan, the first pylon was poured early this month.

When MGM Osaka opens in 2030, we will be the sole licensing operator, which is notable in a country where robust tourism, an appetite for gaming, and a population of over 120 million people. Considering these factors and how similar metrics drive other Asian destination gaming markets, we believe MGM Osaka has the potential to generate multi-billions of dollars annually for MGM. Progress in Dubai has also started to gather steam, with an expected opening date of the second half of 2028, and in New York, we submitted our application in June and are hopeful to be awarded one of the three gaming licenses that will be issued in December. Few companies can take on any of these projects on an individual basis, but our unmatched scope, scale, and international experience allow us to manage all of these simultaneously while maintaining ample liquidity and a solid balance sheet.

Reporting record highest ever consolidated net revenues is not possible without the tremendous contribution from all of our employees across all business segments, and it's worth highlighting that we have had another record gold NPS score in the second quarter despite the ongoing room remodel disruptions at the MGM Grand. As you can see, it's an incredibly exciting time here at resorts, and I will now hand this over to Jonathan to provide some additional color on our performance.

Speaker 1

Thanks very much, Bill. I'd like to also express my appreciation to all of our employees for their hard work and commitment to excellence. Whether on the front lines delivering exceptional service or behind the scenes innovating new solutions, their collective contributions continue to raise the bar every quarter. We're very fortunate here at MGM to have a diverse portfolio of assets that constitute such a deep growth pipeline. The BetMGM North America venture continued its momentum into the second quarter with revenue from operations up 36%, resulting in second quarter EBITDA of $86 million. iGaming grew 29% in the second quarter despite no new state launches, driven by strong player acquisition, attractive payback economics, and healthy engagement activity. Sports betting top line grew 56% in the quarter, benefiting from the repositioning toward the premium mass customer as well as targeted marketing and refined player segmentation efforts.

Omnichannel efforts also continue to gain momentum. Our March Madness activations fueled a record number of Nevada first-time depositors, while the single-app single-wallet feature helped drive 30% growth in Nevada monthly actives. As mentioned on yesterday's call from BetMGM, 2025 guidance was raised to at least $2.7 billion of net revenue and at least $150 million of EBITDA. I'm also happy to announce that BetMGM reporting will be aligned with MGM reporting beginning in the upcoming third quarter, thus no longer reporting one month in arrears going forward. We can cue the applause on the call. Here in Las Vegas, the market remains fundamentally sound. During the second quarter and now into July, performance on the weekends has been solid as we've been operating near capacity in our hotels across the spectrum.

Our luxury offerings in Vegas maintained rate integrity, with slot and table volume increasing about 4% and several properties reporting second quarter records for net revenue. The year-over-year adjusted EBITDA decline in Las Vegas of $72 million was primarily confined to the MGM Grand and, to a much lesser degree, midweek performance at the Luxor and Excalibur. The MGM Grand represented $60 million of the difference, with the vast majority due to impacts from the room remodel and hold. When you exclude the impact of the MGM Grand property on our results, Las Vegas adjusted EBITDA decreased about 2% in the second quarter. The lower midweek visitation in our more value-oriented properties has continued in July, though we're taking advantage of this dynamic by pulling forward the MGM Grand room remodel timeline.

Based on this accelerated timeline, we now expect the remodel to be completed by the end of October, which will allow us to capitalize on these refresh rooms in November in time for F1's return to Las Vegas and for the holiday season. When you also consider we've seen positive bookings in three of the last four weeks and solid bookings of groups and conventions that are in place for later in the year, we're optimistic about restoring a growth trajectory in Las Vegas during the fourth quarter that will carry on into 2026. In Macau, adjusted EBITDA rose by 3%, resulting in a record quarter as visitation, player counts, and premium player counts rose at both properties. The focus on premium players is a simple strategy but difficult to execute, yet our team continues to capitalize on all opportunities.

In July, we soft-opened the Alpha Club at MGM Macau, an ultra-high-end offering that opened with 20 tables. We continue to fine-tune the offering and add amenities with an official opening scheduled ahead of the October Golden Week. The regional properties had a particularly solid performance in the second quarter with record QQ net revenue and a 7% increase in adjusted EBITDA. MGM Digital, our consolidated international digital business that does not include the BetMGM North America venture, grew its top line by 14% as the BetMGM brand extension has been driving improved results in existing markets, including the UK, Netherlands, and Sweden. Marketing and bonus optimization combined with OpEx management have been strong drivers of our cost management efforts. The brands we're investing in are beginning to achieve meaningful scale, and BetMGM brands are achieving all-time highs as they grow.

Our full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA expectations remain consistent with last year at MGM Digital. We're on track to achieve over $150 million in EBITDA enhancements in 2025, the majority in Las Vegas, with continued focus on automation and other initiatives in response to customer preferences. We've identified other opportunities to keep us on track as we champion a continuous improvement mindset across the business. During the quarter, we repurchased 8 million shares for $217 million, all of which took place in April. The pace of our repurchases has slowed as we focus our capital deployment on our development projects. Our share count is nearly 45% lower than it was when we began this buying program, and we've received board approval for the ability to repurchase another $2 billion of shares. Finally, we continue to see meaningful value in the current share price.

When you strip out the value of MGM China at market and assign a consensus value to the BetMGM North America venture, which we still view as very conservative given the current trajectory, you end up with an implied multiple of 3.4 times trailing 12 months adjusted EBITDA, to say nothing of the value of MGM Digital, a business that's capable of a billion dollars in run rate top line with double-digit EBITDA margins. Said differently, there's an active accelerating growth pipeline that, when paired with a nearly halved share count, together will unlock meaningful value that's not reflected in our current valuation. I'll turn it back to Bill.

Speaker 10

Thanks, Jonathan. Before we get to questions, Operator, I'd like to take maybe a step back and refocus more holistically on what we're up to in the strategy. For us, it's to win the greatest share of the world's growing gaming market. MGM Resorts International is the only global operator with the ability to converge gaming and hospitality with entertainment and sports, whether physical or digital, and deliver accelerated diversified growth at scale. We're uniquely positioned to develop synergies across all of those businesses. Our operational focus and calculated investments are paying off. Everywhere we operate, we're winning, particularly in premium and luxury. In Macau, we have been and continue to be and earn more than our fair share, and that continues in the month of July. In digital, we've turned the corner on both the product and cash generation fronts with huge upside to capture.

In Las Vegas, with the advent of the A stadium, we're seated in the middle of the Golden Triangle, ensuring MGM Resorts International is uniquely advantaged by major events, especially sports. Internationally, we are the sole licensing in Japan with 120 million plus people with a proven propensity to game. The point is we have the size and scale to seize meaningful gaming opportunities anywhere in the world, and as we look into the future, we remain very excited about that. Obviously, there's been a great deal of talk and focus on Las Vegas, and again, I want to look and take a step back and think of this holistically. Over the last 30 years, the CAGR in Las Vegas and GGR has been close to 5%. We host many of the world's largest events and conventions in a city that is not readily, if ever, duplicatable.

This fall alone, we'll see Canelo Crawford fight in a legit stadium, one of the biggest fights Las Vegas has seen in the last 10 years. In September, Paul McCartney will be, excuse me, in October, and the F1 in November, with pre-sales better than they've ever been, will be hosted here again in our community. Long-term college football championships come our way in January of 2027 and the Final Four in 2028. Las Vegas is as solid as ever, and MGM Resorts International couldn't be better positioned to benefit by all of it. With that, Operator, let's go to the questions.

Speaker 8

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. As a reminder, in all fairness, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Our first question will come from Barry Jonas with Truist. Please go ahead.

Speaker 0

Hey, guys. I wanted to start with the MGM Grand. Is $65 million still the right number to think about impact for the disruption? If it is, how much of that has been hit so far in Q1, Q2? Thank you.

Speaker 1

Sure, Barry. Yes, that is still a good number. The only difference is now we'll be experiencing it really through just the nine months of this year as opposed to the full year. On the second part of that question, I would say through the first six months, by our accounting, it's been about $40 million. We would expect that full remaining amount through the conclusion of the project in October.

Speaker 0

Got it. Got it. That's really helpful. Bill, it sounds like you somewhat addressed this, but clearly we've heard concerns about pricing and value impacting Las Vegas and MGM Resorts International. Maybe just spend a minute, kind of address that a little bit more in detail, please.

Speaker 10

Yeah. Look, I think if you think about our luxury products and our offerings, you'd see like ADR up in Bellagio, Corey, help me, 4% for the quarter, something like that. Yeah. You would see $250,000 playing above across the first six months of the year, up 25%. You'd see slot revenue up for the year, particularly at the premium levels. When it comes to that, I don't think that's a real issue. I think when it gets to our value-oriented properties, properties that focus on all that's going on in the global economy/U.S. economy, there is impact. Given the scale and scope of what we do and how we offer it, it's, while real, and we particularly experience it in the summer. We are excited by fourth quarter and particularly what happens into 2026.

Speaker 0

Great. Thank you very much.

Speaker 8

The next question will come from David Katz with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hi. Afternoon, everybody. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to just go back to digital and appreciate the update that we had just a few days ago in your opening remarks about it. I would love to get just another layer of insight into sort of how much cross-benefit there is. I think in the past you've given us digital sign-ups for the loyalty program, et cetera. How is all of that evolving given the strength?

Speaker 0

Sure. I think one of the things that Bill touched on certainly is the progress we're seeing in Nevada. It's probably one of the big highlights of the omnichannel advantages that we're seeing, where we've seen about 30% growth in Nevada monthly actives and a 4X increase in the number of Nevada actives who continue to play with BetMGM once they go home. The power of our Vegas funnel, if you will, and turning that into real customers for BetMGM is really a hallmark part of the omnichannel program. We also are aggressively investing in activating players during tentpole events here in Las Vegas. Jonathan alluded to what we did during March Madness as an example. On the content side, we're also seeing the ability to leverage things like our MGM Live Studio and being able to begin to provision exclusive and proprietary content for players out of that.

That's another advantage of what we uniquely can do as an omnichannel operator.

Speaker 9

Understood. If I can in another direction, in the past, you've made some comments around the arrangement you have with Marriott Bonvoy and its benefits. Any update there we could talk about sharing?

Speaker 10

No. Look, I think, David, the update is, despite all that's going on, it's on track and we'll go over 900,000 room nights this year. The quarterly performance has been great. I think I mentioned in my opening comments a couple of weeks ago, we had an all-time week of 25,000 bookings in a week. Those customers continue to spend more than the average, almost $150, Rep Corps. All is positive. They've jumped into the convention space with us in a meaningful way now. While we have 13 GSOs, Global Sales Office representatives, they have 1,300, literally. We're very positive and bolder somewhere it brings us down the road. About 30% to 40% of those customers are redeemers. They basically are here with a free room, for lack of a better word, and they're retiring with their points. It just presents us with a great leisure customer.

Speaker 9

Understood. It's never free. Thanks very much.

Speaker 8

The next question will come from Brandt Montour with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Great. Thanks for the question. I do want to ask again about Las Vegas. The visitation numbers for the Strip came out today, as I'm sure you saw, and they were quite bad for June. It seems like leisure-heavy summer FIT customer, it seems like you're gaining share from Marriott Bonvoy and some of the other things you're doing. Maybe, Bill, if you could just take a step back and talk about the Strip as a whole. Talk about what you're seeing maybe near-term in that FIT customer and the next 4 to 12 weeks' booking trends and what gives you confidence that when convention and group comes back and the summer heat abates, that FIT customer will come back in the fall.

Speaker 10

Sure. I think referencing my earlier comments, history gives us confidence. I think, though, what we have seen, we saw starting in May about a nine-week decline in bookings. Now over the last month, those bookings have increased. For the last four weeks in a row, we've seen an increase, three of the last four weeks in a row, we've seen an increase in bookings. That gives us confidence as we think about August, September, and into October, remembering that the booking cycle here is short. I mean, 50% of our bookings come within 30-odd days. It's pretty, particularly in the summer, reactionary. I think July will replicate June in a meaningful way. We have, between programming, conventions, and just, again, back to the Marriott Bonvoy program and our Marriott relationship, great confidence in fourth quarter and beyond.

What I would add, June and July this year, we had some pretty big groups cycle out of the city. We know that they will be back in future years. You also have the convention center under construction. A few of our competitors had some of their space under construction. I think it was just a unique summer when it comes to the convention business that we haven't seen in the past.

Speaker 2

Okay. Thanks for that. Maybe for Jonathan. The $150 million cost savings and synergy savings targets this year, what can you tell us about what you realized in the second quarter, what you realized in the first half, and sort of how to think about the second half?

Speaker 1

Yeah. The first half total is about $80 million. It's about similar for the first half and the second half of the year. I mean, these are coming from a lot of different areas. They include some of the benefit that we've gotten from digital check-in. Our AI-driven chatbot has helped. Of course, we made some moves in some other revenue areas as well. We're doing more in our quick service restaurants with ordering, using barcodes, and the rest. It's really probably 70 or 80 different initiatives which have come together to drive this improvement for us.

Speaker 2

Great. Thanks, everyone.

Speaker 8

The next question will come from John DeCree with CBRE. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hi, all. Thanks for taking my questions. Maybe one to shift gears on Macau and another solid quarter for MGM China. The first question is kind of high-level on the market. We've seen gaming revenue accelerate in May and really in June. I'm curious if you have opinions on what's driving that acceleration market-wide, if it's some economic improvements, if it's just the event schedule and calendar, and how sustainable might this GGR acceleration be for the market.

Speaker 0

Kenneth or Hubert, why don't you grab that?

Speaker 6

Yeah. I think I get it. This is Kenny. I think we are happy to see a growing market, driven by premium mass. Macau is not only event-driven like customers. They come for concerts, but we are seeing more and more customers come for refreshing experiences and quality products and services. If we come to MGM China, we continue to see a very strong trend. In July, our performance is pretty robust. We see our strong volumes across nearly all business segments and solid market share and margin. In general, I would see in the entire market, I think of us, we are seeing a we are expecting a promising summer.

Speaker 2

Got it. That's helpful. I appreciate the color. Maybe big picture, maybe Jonathan, for you. Can you update us on the dividend policy at MGM China? Certainly, GGR, adjusted EBITDA ramping, and it sounds like MGM China is continuing to gain a little bit of share. It's a great performance. How are you thinking about maybe the balance sheet in MGM China and dividend policy as it relates to MGM Resorts International?

Speaker 1

I was with you until the last as it relates to MGM. I'll make a comment on the dividend policy at MGM China, and then I'll invite Hubert or Kenny to speak to the balance sheet there. The board just approved, it was in March or May, a dividend policy of 50% of distributable net income. That's, of course, very important to MGM Resorts as such a large shareholder, and that dividend income approaches $150 to $200 million a year. It's a substantial source of cash flow for the company, and I think an appropriate level for MGM China. Hubert or Kenny, do you want to, I guess, address the general question around the balance sheet?

Speaker 6

Yeah. In terms of dividend, earlier this year, we have changed our dividend policy to a regular dividend of up to 50% payout, plus special dividend, if any. I think the board will review our cash flow position from time to time and make appropriate decisions, taking into account potential development projects in the pipeline. That's what I have for the answer.

Speaker 4

That's great. Thank you, guys.

Speaker 8

The next question will come from Shaun Kelley with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hi. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for taking my questions. Maybe a high-level one for whoever wants to take it. Curious on MGM's view on the big, beautiful bill, just the impact here on the gambling community as it relates to what's going on here. Obviously, the tax deduction limitation is impactful. In particular, we think about it impacting, I think, VIP players and some of the professional players who may bounce around a variety of properties. How do you think about it? To the extent you're able, maybe you can talk about some of the political angles MGM's working to maybe make any changes there.

Speaker 0

Yeah. Sean, let me start off, and then I'll turn it over to Jonathan and talk about the tax impacts on the deductions, et cetera. Last week, we had an opportunity to meet with the House Committee Chair here on Appropriations, myself, Tom Reag, and Craig Billings met with him. We were focused specifically on the 90% issue of losses. He is willing, and he subsequently had a hearing here to go over the big, beautiful bill with the community. He brought that up as something that he's going to help us work on as well with Congressman Dena Titus to get that corrected because we don't think that's a fair deal. The way it lays out, you could win $1,000, lose $1,000, and still end up paying a 10% tax on 10% of those losses, or 10% in terms of losses.

We're very focused on that as a starting point. I think some of the other things, raising up the slot win from $1,200 to $2,000 is helpful. Some of it was productive. On the greater picture, John, why don't you speak to the couple hundred?

Speaker 1

Yeah. Just a couple of other items that we, of course, have been watching. The one, no tax on tips, no tax on overtime. We believe that's basically neutral to the company and won't really have any impact on our cost structure. The bonus depreciation, however, is quite a large deal for us. We're a company, of course, that invests a lot in our properties, and the MGM Grand renovation is the latest example. This is one of the reasons why we've updated our tax forecast from a liability of approximately $100 million this year to actually a positive refund of $100 million in 2025. That's a pretty meaningful change, not only because of this, but in large part because of this bill, this law.

Speaker 7

That's great. Jonathan, my follow-up, maybe you could just walk us through kind of where we sit on the buyback strategy. Obviously, you indicated in the prepared remarks, most of the buyback was done in April, and the pace has slowed a lot. Still a very large authorization, and the shares remain valued. There's also this, obviously, very big growth pipeline. New York's coming up. Japan checks are being written. Can you just help us balance that out? Is there a leverage kind of target or ceiling that you're managing to? What are kind of the puts and takes around being able to be a little bit more active in the stock for the balance of the year?

Speaker 1

We entered the year 2025 with a more cautious stance towards share repurchases because of the development pipeline that we're fortunate to have. Then we saw a real dislocation in the price during the first quarter. We were compelled just by the value to be aggressive. As you probably recall, I think we did about $700 million or so in the first quarter. That continued into April. We were more aggressive than I expected we would coming into the year, but that was purely because of the price. We don't have a, in terms of leverage, we're well within our leverage targets of about 4.5 times lease-adjusted debt to EBITDA. I think this company, even with our development pipeline, we still have the ability to repurchase shares, which is why we saw the increase in the authorization.

You just look at a quarter like this, $750 million in consolidated adjusted EBITDA to roughly $250 million in CapEx, $100 million in interest expense, or thereabouts. This is $400 million in a quarter, roughly, of cash flow that we can use for share repurchases or development CapEx. Well over $1 billion annually. Even against the development projects that we have, that still leaves room to return some capital to shareholders. For the time being, we are in a more cautious stance, and it's primarily because of that development pipeline.

Speaker 7

Thank you very much.

Speaker 8

The next question will come from Chad Beynon with Macquarie. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Great updates this week from Adam and Gary on the JV BetMGM side. I wanted to ask about the digital business. I know you guys have talked about investing, particularly in the first half of this year, good growth on the revenue side. Can you just broadly talk about where we are with the investment side of this, whether it's Brazil or other markets, and how you kind of see the setup for the back half of the year and getting to that inflection point in 2026? Thanks.

Speaker 5

Yeah, sure. Thanks for the question, Gary. Yeah. I think Jonathan said in the prepared remarks, and I'd underscore it, that in the absence of the investments we're making in Brazil, we're basically beginning to achieve break-even in the rest of the MGM Digital portfolio. The bulk of the growth in that portfolio, we are seeing growth in sort of our core LeoVegas business. The bulk of the growth is coming from the BetMGM branded business internationally, which we've invested over the course of the past year and a half quite heavily in. We are definitely seeing returns from that. I don't see anything between now and the end of the year that would suggest that those trends would be interrupted, and we would continue to operate with that level of profitability. Really, the investment is concentrated in Brazil.

We really took flight with respect to our investments in Brazil in Q2. We got the product in good shape in Q1. In Q2, we turned on the marketing with a reasonable level of ingression, and we're very happy about what we're seeing. Player values are strong down there. We see nothing to give us any concern about the TAM and the long-term health in the market in Brazil. Our relationship with Grupo Globo couldn't be better, and that relationship affords us a tremendous amount of operating flexibility that our competitors do not have. We can have access to inventory very quickly. We can make decisions about changing marketing mix very quickly because of our relationship with Grupo Globo. That dig will continue through the end of the year.

I'll reiterate again, this year in 2025, total performance on the bottom line in MGM Digital should mimic what it looked like last year, and we'll move into 2026 optimistically. Great. Thank you. Going back to Macau, the margins in the back half of 2024 were around that 25% range. I think in the past couple of calls, we've talked about being grounded around that 25% margin range. First half of this year, you're almost at 28%, obviously driven by higher market share and good premium mass. Can you talk about if maybe we should be thinking about a slightly higher margin, or maybe ask differently, if you're able to hold market share above that 15% range we had been thinking about before, could the margins be higher than what we had spoken about? Thanks.

Speaker 6

Kenneth, are you able to grab that? I'm going to have a thought. Go ahead.

Speaker 3

I think this is Kenny. We feel pretty confident that we can continue to maintain such market share, which we have guided for the past few years around meetings and while maintaining the EBITDA margin in mid-20s to high 20s. I think that based on even our current performance, as just indicated in our July performance, we see very solid market share and the margin in such range.

Speaker 6

Yeah, I agree. I think that this is Hubert. I think that our focus on premium mass is not going to change. Our strategy remains consistent, and we have product to support that strategy in the near future. I think that lends to itself that we expect our margin to be stable at a high 20% range. Yeah.

Speaker 3

As to Kenny, as to the competition, people right now, we are talking in this marketplace. Competition is nothing new in Macau. We are focusing on, we are competing on spending our customers and focusing on continuously to refresh our products and the services. We just want to make sure every investment we are making is effective and to reflect what the customers want, the trends, the latest trends. We are really seeing a sustainable market share and the margin, as we said.

Speaker 5

Thank you very much.

Speaker 8

The next question will come from Dan Politzer with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hey, good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. First, I want to go back to the Strip. Bill, Jonathan, Corey, whoever wants to take it. You guys have all been doing this a very long time. Strip visitation, it's been declining pretty much all year. To your credit, you've managed through this impressively, especially given the disruption in MGM Grand. Is there anything you can kind of pinpoint in what's driving this decline in visitation? Is it international inbound? Is it a different type of customer, less fly-in? To what extent do you have levers to kind of adapt further in this environment where it seems like visitation continues to be under pressure?

Speaker 3

I'll start. I think international visitation has been an issue, not only for Las Vegas, but a lot of destinations. Particularly earlier in the year with Canada. We host a lot of hockey games, by way of example, and we saw visitation down. I don't think, I know it's still down. We've seen some of our carriers, I think inbound. Air seats is down 6% now. By the way, mostly driven by Spirit with the challenges with their engines. I think Southern California this summer has laid quiet more than it historically has. I think that's a consideration that we all need to think about going forward as it relates to value-weighted customers and how to attract them and what to do. We do feel solid about our ability to attract premium customers.

Again, looking at the higher end of our spectrum in luxury with Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas, Aria, and Bellagio, of note, we continue to drive up our occupancy and yield from those customers. We do need to keep an eye on value. We've followed the headlines, as I think many have in terms of the value equation, the value stories, and what is being said about Las Vegas. We do need to enhance upon that. Las Vegas is still an amazing value. Some of the rates out there this next midweek are comparable to things I've seen 20 years ago. To say Las Vegas is not a value, which I know has taken some headline, is just not a complete reality. We all need to focus on that. We all need to change the narrative and continue to keep it positive.

Obviously, as it relates to our particular offerings with Luxor, Excalibur, potentially New York, New York, and somewhat MGM Grand, keeping a focus on that for us as we think about winter season and ultimately next summer is going to be really important.

Speaker 1

I think our main levers, our casino database continues to be extremely strong, especially on the regional side. What we're doing with BetMGM, the Marriott Bonvoy relationship, obviously, is an advantage in this timeframe. The other area that I think we look a lot at is business travel. When it's not there, the airlines cut back. As I think you'll see in the fourth quarter, they're going to start adding into the city again, which I think will be to the benefit of the city.

Speaker 7

Got it. That's helpful. In terms of the third quarter, there's a lot of moving pieces there and obviously kind of the backdrop you guys just addressed. If I think about the $25 million from MGM Grand disruption and then you're lapping a $37 million impact from insurance, it's just kind of any orders of magnitude through which to think about the third quarter in Las Vegas and kind of before that bounce back in the fourth quarter.

Speaker 1

What we're seeing certainly in July and looking into August is pretty similar to what we experienced in June in terms of the localization of some of the impacts. Midweek for the value-oriented properties and then the MGM Grand impact, which we've talked about. I'm glad that you called out the cyber insurance proceeds we realized in the third quarter of last year of $37 million. Of course, we'll continue these EBITDA enhancement activities, which I mentioned, which came up earlier. We continue to see the benefit of that through the third quarter. It's going to be kind of a similar situation, and some of it we're taking on intentionally so we can position the company really well for the fourth quarter, particularly with respect to the MGM Grand.

Speaker 7

Got it. Thanks so much.

Speaker 8

The next question will come from Steve Wisinski with Stifel. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Hey, guys. Good afternoon. Bill, whoever wants to take this, I want to go back and ask another question on that Vegas FIT cohort. Bill, you obviously mentioned a couple of times here that FIT cohort has shown some stability recently. I guess my question here is just wondering if you guys have done anything to kind of stimulate that FIT improvement. We've seen some of your peers out there doing some pretty aggressive promotional work, cutting resort fees and stuff like that, and just wondering where you guys stand. That kind of leads me into my second question, which is, Jonathan, maybe how you're thinking about the flow through in Vegas over the next couple of quarters, given the shift in the customer mix that's coming into that market. Thanks, guys.

Speaker 3

Let me start with the FIT. I think based on some of our group activity that we'll pick up later part of the quarter, I think, again, with Marriott at play, we don't see we're aggressive and we're priced accordingly. We continue to follow, I can assure you, what the market is doing. We also want to make sure we're market leaders in many respects. We continue to drive in buildings like the one we're all sitting in, Bellagio Price, and we think that's important. I think occupancy is down 3 or 4 points for the quarter. You might see the same in the next quarter, but not at the expense of ADR and certainly not at the expense of some of the programs we put in play over the years when you talk about resort fees, parking fees, etc. We're not panicked, nor will our programs indicate that.

I do think we need to get the value equation right at the other end of the spectrum with Excalibur and Luxor. It is a highly competitive market and remains that. At the end of the day, while they are generating cash flow and they make us money, it's not the whole ballgame. We will look at those independently a little bit differently. We will lean into, as we have for the better part of the summer, our casino database. One of the reasons our slot win is up is because of our casino database. We continue to drive into that, and it's been fruitful for us.

Speaker 1

On the flow through question, I think a generally safe assumption is that we can bring 50% of the revenue increase to the bottom line if we're talking about Las Vegas. Strive as we might, if we do have revenue declines, again, it depends on where it's coming from, but a general rule of thumb is that we can fade 50% of that through cost management, but maybe 50% of it would hit the bottom line.

Speaker 5

Okay, gotcha. Thanks, Bill. Thanks, Jonathan. Appreciate it.

Speaker 8

The next question will come from Stephen Grambling with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Thanks. I saw on the deck that the overall CapEx moved a little bit lower for the year, which was maybe surprising in the context of some of the benefits from the big, beautiful bill. I guess what's driving the reduction, and remind us of the timing of some of the major projects that are on the horizon? I know it's still early, but could the accelerated depreciation change our approach to ROI investments as we look out to 2026?

Speaker 1

Yeah, the reduction was really a function of just as we get into the year and look at what we're spending. The ongoing refinement of the capital plan that occurs during the course of the year. We looked at that and said it's unlikely that we're going to be actually spending the amount that we had put out there. There are no notable projects that we've stopped or decided not to do. This always happens. Sometimes it's a little bit of an increase. Most often it's a reduction. We wanted to make that clear. Go ahead. I was just going to get into some of the major projects if you want. Really the only significant project, the likes of, say, an MGM Grand renovation, would be the renovation of the Aria rooms, which presently we're looking to begin in the late second, kind of early third quarter of 2026.

Speaker 3

One of the things that slowed down this year is we have done an Opera Cloud migration, our front-end hotel system, into the cloud. Given the challenges up and down the street in the community, we want to be cautious. We took a re-look at that. It cost us a couple of months in time. We just launched Park last week seamlessly. It was up and down in 12 hours. Now we're going to head to the Cosmopolitan and the rest of the Strip. That had some capital tied to it that we simply delayed because we wanted to make sure we got it right. I'm feeling great. The team did a great job with it. I'm excited about moving forward finally with that idea.

Speaker 1

While we're talking about capitals, I consult my list of projects, which I won't spend time going through. When I look at the number of exciting projects that we have coming online in the late third quarter and early fourth quarter, it's pretty dramatic. There's not a property here in Las Vegas and a few in the regional markets that don't have some really exciting projects coming online.

Speaker 5

That's helpful. Thanks. Maybe one unrelated follow-up. Looking at Las Vegas, I think it was this quarter last year that you called out Formula One kind of proactively. Anything that you're seeing at this point looking out to Formula One relative to last year? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yeah, I feel much better about it. This is Bill. Pricing was taken into a whole new ballgame, a whole new consideration. We think and believe, and I think ticket sales, both ours as well as Formula One's, would indicate we got it right. I think they've sold over 65% of the tickets today or some number like that. We're in that zone. We feel good about it generally, as well as obviously what we do internally with rooms and particularly the Fountain Club that we put up here at Bellagio is a massively unique experience. The race this year is going to have two events versus just the F1 cars, which will be more content.

They're going to do some other special things with us around the fountain, which I think will be exciting for not only Bellagio and MGM, but Las Vegas in terms of eyeballs and camera time. We're pretty excited by what's happened and where it's all going.

Speaker 1

You just had a $1 million sale at the Fountain Club yesterday.

Speaker 5

That's great.

Speaker 1

Got it. I'll take that as a call to action. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yeah, we like it. We like it.

Speaker 8

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Bill Hornbuckle for any closing remarks. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you all for joining us today. I know it's getting late. Just as a reference, I'll be in New York at the Bank of America Conference in September. I hope to see many of you there. Otherwise, we look forward to discussing our three key results with you all in a few months. Have a great end of the summer, and thank you all for your attendance today.

Speaker 8

This concludes our conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.