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MGM Resorts International (MGM)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 delivered record consolidated net revenues of $4.40B (+2% YoY), with strength in MGM China and Regional Operations offsetting Las Vegas softness tied to the MGM Grand room remodel and lower table hold. Adjusted EPS was $0.79; GAAP diluted EPS was $0.18 due to a $208M pre-tax FX transaction loss. Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA was $647.5M (+2% YoY).
  • Versus Wall Street: MGM beat consensus on revenue ($4.405B vs $4.317B) and on normalized/adjusted EPS ($0.79 vs $0.55), while company-reported EBITDA was well below the SPGI “EBITDA Consensus Mean” definition, indicating a metric mismatch versus MGM’s Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Segment performance: Las Vegas net revenues fell 4% YoY to $2.11B and Segment Adjusted EBITDAR declined 9%; Regional net revenues rose 4% to $965M and Segment Adjusted EBITDAR rose 7%; MGM China net revenues climbed 9% to $1.11B with record Segment Adjusted EBITDAR and market share of 16.6%.
  • Guidance/narrative: BetMGM raised FY25 guidance to at least $2.7B revenue and at least $150M EBITDA; MGM reiterated >$150M in 2025 EBITDA enhancements; MGM Grand remodel accelerated to end of October to position for F1 and holiday demand; tax outlook updated to a ~$100M refund in 2025 (from ~$100M liability), tied to bonus depreciation in the “big, beautiful bill.”
  • Capital returns: MGM repurchased 8M shares ($217M) in Q2, with ~$2.1B authorization remaining; share count is ~45% below early-2021. Management highlighted an implied valuation of ~3.4x trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA after assigning market values to MGM China and BetMGM.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • MGM China delivered record Segment Adjusted EBITDAR and a 16.6% market share; premium-mass focus drove consistent margin in the high-20% range and sequential share gains throughout the quarter. “Our share increased every month of the quarter.”
  • Regional Operations achieved record second-quarter net revenues and slot win, with Segment Adjusted EBITDAR up 7% YoY; targeted capital upgrades (e.g., Borgata’s Asian/VIP expansion) are driving double-digit growth and market outperformance.
  • BetMGM raised FY25 guidance to at least $2.7B revenue and at least $150M EBITDA; omnichannel funnel from Las Vegas surged Nevada actives (+30%) with improved retention post-visit; incremental revenue flow-through year-to-date at 66%.

What Went Wrong

  • Las Vegas: Net revenues down 4% YoY, Segment Adjusted EBITDAR down 9%; MGM Grand accounted for ~80% of the adjusted EBITDA decline due to disruptive room remodel and abnormal hold; midweek softness persisted at value-oriented properties.
  • GAAP EPS declined sharply to $0.18 vs $0.60 YoY, driven by a $208M pre-tax FX transaction loss tied to USD debt at a foreign subsidiary; FX and derivatives fair value changes materially impacted reported results.
  • MGM Digital posted a larger loss YoY (-$26M vs -$14M), reflecting investment ramp-up (notably Brazil), though management indicated near-break-even ex-Brazil and stable full-year adjusted EBITDA expectations.

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$4.347 $4.277 $4.405
Net Income Attrib. to MGM ($USD Millions)$157.4 $148.6 $49.0
Diluted EPS ($)$0.52 $0.51 $0.18
Adjusted EPS ($)$0.45 $0.69 $0.79
Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$528.5 $637.1 $647.5
Segment Net Revenues ($USD Millions)Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Las Vegas Strip Resorts$2,223.4 $2,176.1 $2,114.7
Regional Operations$931.6 $900.4 $964.6
MGM China$1,018.7 $1,027.5 $1,110.1
MGM Digital$139.9 $128.1 $163.9
Segment Adjusted EBITDAR ($USD Millions)Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Las Vegas Strip Resorts$765.4 $811.2 $710.5
Regional Operations$281.1 $279.0 $308.7
MGM China$254.7 $285.6 $301.3
MGM Digital-$21.7 -$34.4 -$25.7
MarginsQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
EBITDA Margin %12.83%*15.19%*14.09%*
EBIT Margin %8.06%*9.67%*8.60%*
Net Income Margin %3.59%*3.47%*1.11%*

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Las Vegas KPIsQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Occupancy (%)94% 94% 93%
ADR ($)$271 $257 $252
RevPAR ($)$254 $242 $235
Slot Handle ($MM)$6,841 $5,682 $5,886
Slot Win ($MM)$648 $545 $549
Table Games Drop ($MM)$1,599 $1,511 $1,554
Table Games Win ($MM)$392 $404 $355

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
BetMGM RevenueFY 2025Prior level not disclosed here≥ $2.7BRaised
BetMGM EBITDAFY 2025Prior level not disclosed here≥ $150MRaised
MGM EBITDA Enhancements2025Implementation “> $150M” noted in Q1Implement “> $150M” reiteratedMaintained
MGM Grand Remodel2025Disruption initially contemplated over full yearCompletion accelerated to end of Oct 2025Accelerated
Tax Forecast2025~($100M) liability~$100M refundRaised (favorable)
MGM China Dividend PolicyOngoingNot specified previously in these docsRegular dividend up to 50% payout (+ potential special)Implemented/affirmed
Share Repurchase AuthorizationAs of Q2 2025$2B authorized (from Apr 30)~$2.1B availability remainingMaintained capacity

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024)Previous Mentions (Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
Las Vegas demand & eventsF1 comp pressure; record FY revenue; strong bookings into 2025 Record Strip occupancy/slot win; April pacing strong Summer midweek value softness; remodel/hold at MGM Grand; confidence in Q4 rebound and 2026 events (F1, stadium) Near-term soft vs prior, improving setup into Q4
Marriott BonvoyNot highlightedProgram scale; strong bookings Targeting 900k room nights; $150+ higher spend per room night; best booking week recently Strengthening channel
BetMGMExpected profitability in 2025 Positive EBITDA in Q1; strong growth Raised FY25 guide; omnichannel Nevada funnel driving actives/retention Momentum improving
China premium massRecord FY 2024 results Slight YoY decline Q1 EBITDA; strategy intact Record Segment Adj. EBITDAR; 16.6% share; high-20s margin; Alpha Club soft-open Strengthening
Cost/automationNot detailed>$150M implementation targeted in 2025 ~70–80 initiatives incl. digital check-in, AI chatbot; $80M H1 realized Execution progressing
Tax/regulatory——“Big, beautiful bill”: bonus depreciation flips tax to +$100M refund; working on 90% loss limitation fix Favorable tax impact
Development pipeline—Osaka, Dubai, NY discussed broadly Osaka 2030; Dubai 2H 2028; NY license application submitted June Advancing milestones

Management Commentary

  • “Record highest ever consolidated net revenue results this quarter… accelerated digital growth combined with record-setting results in China and at our regional properties more than offset a choppy period in Las Vegas.” — CEO Bill Hornbuckle
  • “BetMGM… raised full-year 2025 guidance… at least $2.7 billion of net revenue and at least $150 million of EBITDA.” — CFO Jonathan Halkyard
  • “Marriott… we’ll go over 900,000 room nights this year… customers continue to spend more than the average, almost $150 per room night more.” — CEO Bill Hornbuckle
  • “The MGM Grand represented $60 million of [Las Vegas EBITDA] difference… we now expect the remodel to be completed by the end of October.” — CFO Jonathan Halkyard
  • “We’ve updated our tax forecast from a liability of approximately $100 million this year to a positive refund of $100 million in 2025.” — CFO Jonathan Halkyard
  • “Repurchased 8 million shares for $217 million… remaining authorization ~$2.1 billion.” — Press release

Q&A Highlights

  • MGM Grand disruption: ~$65M full-year impact still a good number, ~$40M realized in H1; completion pulled forward to October.
  • FIT/value properties: Midweek softness at Luxor/Excalibur; management will protect rate integrity at luxury while adjusting value equation; leaning into casino database.
  • Cost initiatives: ~$80M realized in H1 across ~70–80 actions (digital check-in, AI chatbot, barcode ordering); expect similar pace in H2.
  • MGM China dividends: Board approved regular dividend up to 50% payout (plus potential specials); ~$150–$200M annual cash to MGM.
  • Tax law (“big, beautiful bill”): Bonus depreciation benefit; advocacy to fix 90% loss limitation; no tax on tips/overtime largely neutral.
  • Buybacks vs development: Authorization increased; stance cautious near-term given Osaka/Dubai/NY pipelines; leverage target ~4.5x lease-adjusted.

Estimates Context

PeriodConsensus EPS ($)Actual Adjusted EPS ($)Beat/MissConsensus Revenue ($B)Actual Revenue ($B)Beat/Miss
Q4 20240.340.45—4.2674.347—
Q1 20250.450.69—4.2844.278—
Q2 20250.550.79—4.3174.405—

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

  • Q2 2025: EPS and revenue both beat consensus; the SPGI “EBITDA Consensus Mean” (~$1.17B) materially exceeds MGM’s reported Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA ($648M), indicating a definitional difference—investors should anchor on company-defined “Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA.” Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term Las Vegas headwinds should abate as MGM Grand remodel completes in October and event/convention calendar normalizes into Q4; luxury rate integrity remains intact.
  • China and Regional Operations are the current earnings ballast, with premium-mass mix and sequential share gains in Macau and targeted capital upgrades (e.g., Borgata) driving growth.
  • BetMGM’s raised FY25 guidance and improved flow-through/retention support upside to MGM’s JV value; omnichannel links (Marriott/Las Vegas funnel) are tangible differentiators.
  • Cost/automation program is delivering—$80M realized in H1—with a long runway across 70–80 initiatives to protect margins through demand variability.
  • Tax outlook flip to ~$100M refund in 2025 improves cash generation; paired with ~$2.1B buyback capacity, capital returns remain a lever even with pipeline commitments.
  • Valuation commentary (3.4x TTM adjusted EBITDA post asset value assignments) underscores management’s view of embedded value; catalysts include F1, stadium-driven event load, Osaka/Dubai, and NY license outcome.
  • Monitor metric definitions in external estimates (e.g., SPGI EBITDA) versus MGM’s reported metrics to avoid misinterpreting beats/misses; anchor comparisons on company-defined Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA.