McCormick & Company - Q1 2023
March 28, 2023
Transcript
Kasey Jenkins (Chief Strategy Officer and SVP Investor Relations)
Good morning. This is Kasey Jenkins, Chief Strategy Officer and Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you for joining today's first quarter earnings call. To accompany this call, we have posted a set of slides at ir.mccormick.com. With me this morning are Lawrence Kurzius, Chairman and CEO, Brendan Foley, President and COO, and Mike Smith, Executive Vice President and CFO. During this call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. The nature of the non-GAAP financial measures and the related reconciliations to the GAAP results are included in this morning's press release and slides. In our comments, certain percentages are rounded. Please refer to our presentation for complete information. Today's presentation contains projections and other forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those projected. The company undertakes no obligation to update or revise publicly any forward-looking statements, whether because of new information, future events, or other factors.
Please refer to our forward-looking statement on slide 2 for more information. I will now turn the discussion over to Lawrence.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. We are pleased with the start of the year. We delivered solid first quarter results that reflect strong demand and early results from our actions to increase our profit realization in 2023. Our sales performance reflects the strength of our broad global portfolio and the effective execution of our strategies. Our Global Operating Effectiveness, or GOE program, is yielding results with first quarter cost savings in line with our expectations. The progress we are making on gross margin improvement reflects the level of urgency with which we are addressing the pressure points from last year. These results, combined with the strong demand we continue to expect across our portfolio and our diligent approach to optimizing our cost structure, bolster our confidence in our plan and our 2023 full year outlook. Turning to slide 5.
In the first quarter, we drove 3% sales growth, or 5% in constant currency. Our constant currency sales growth reflected strong underlying business performance, with an 11% contribution from pricing, partially offset by a 3% decline in underlying volume and product mix. A planned 1% decline from our Kitchen Basics divestiture and the exit of our consumer business in Russia, and an expected 1% year-over-year volume decline from lower consumption due to COVID-related disruption in China, which expect to see a return toward normal consumption trends in the coming quarters. Our underlying first quarter sales performance positions us well for continued top line growth for the balance of the year. Our growth in the first quarter was led by outstanding performance in our Flavor Solutions segment, with positive momentum continuing in all three regions.
In our Consumer segment, our underlying sales growth was led by the Americas region. Moving to profit, our adjusted operating income was comparable to the first quarter of last year. In constant currency, it increased 2%. Higher interest expense and a higher effective tax rate more than offset our adjusted operating income growth in the quarter, resulting in a 6% decline in adjusted earnings per share. I'd like to say a few words about our gross margin performance, which Mike will cover in more detail in his discussion of our adjusted operating income growth drivers in a few moments. We drove considerable improvement in our gross margin performance in the first quarter. Our gross margin reflects the continued recovery of the cost inflation our pricing lagged over the last two years, as well as cost savings from our CCI and GOE programs.
As we've said previously, in 2023, we plan to fully recover the inflation our pricing previously lagged, as well as offset current year inflation through our pricing actions and other levers. Our gross margin also reflects the result of our diligence in optimizing our costs through our GOE program. This is progressing as planned and remains a key focus. We expect the impact of our GOE program to scale up as the year progresses, and we remain on track to realize $75 million of cost savings in 2023, which we will take to the bottom line because of our actions to normalize our supply chain costs and to streamline our organization. We remain confident that we have the right plans in place and are taking the right actions.
It's still early. Our first quarter results speak for themselves. We expect to continue driving profitable growth at an accelerated rate for the balance of the year. Demand is strong, we're driving improvement in our margin profile and optimizing our cost structure effectively. Let's move to first quarter business updates for each of our segments, as well as discussion of our growth plans. Turning to our Consumer segment on slide 6. Our underlying performance was strong, reflecting the effective execution of our pricing actions and continuing positive momentum in our consumption trends, even with lapping the elevated at-home consumption in the first quarter of 2022 due to Omicron in the Americas and the EMEA regions. That performance was partially offset by the impacts related to the sale of Kitchen Basics, our exit of Russia, and the COVID-related disruption in China.
Beginning in the second quarter, the activation of exciting growth initiatives, as well as lapping the impact of last year's COVID-related shutdowns in China and the exit of our Consumer business in Russia, which we began to exit in the second quarter of last year, is expected to drive an acceleration of our Consumer segment growth. Now for some highlights by region, starting with the Americas. Our total U.S. branded portfolio consumption, as indicated by our IRI consumption data and combined with unmeasured channels, grew 5% in line with our shipments. As we anticipated, the dynamics between consumption and retail inventory levels have begun to normalize as we move beyond the holiday season impact, and we anticipate greater alignment between consumption and shipments going forward. Importantly, our volume performance in the first quarter was better than the fourth quarter on higher price realization.
In spices and seasonings, both consumption dollars and units accelerated sequentially from the last several quarters, with strength in our seasoning blends, which provide consumers both convenience and flavor exploration. Early results of our Lawry's Everyday Spice range, our largest innovation launch since pre-pandemic, continue to be positive. We are seeing incremental sales and profit to the category. Over half of the purchases are from new buyers to McCormick and overall incremental to the category. Hot sauce remains on fire, with double-digit growth of both Cholula and Frank's RedHot in the U.S. and Canada. We continue to build excitement with our hot sauce brand marketing initiatives and reach the younger generation, most recently through gaming.
In our big game campaign during the quarter, our flavor-packed version of Fortnite, The Floor is Flava, had players navigating an immersive chicken wing-shaped island and a volcano that spewed Frank's RedHot and included, in partnership with TGI Fridays and DoorDash, a free chicken wings offer. This was our best big game campaign, capturing over 1 billion impressions in North America. With the resolution of the long-running shortage of French's mustard bottles, we drove over 20% consumption growth for the second consecutive quarter. Our creamy mustard launch last year continues to perform very well, with another flavor launch coming this year. In the Americas, we continue to drive double-digit consumption growth in e-commerce, led by spices and seasonings. We are realizing high returns on our investments, gaining new customers, and growing with new products.
For instance, McCormick popcorn seasonings and Frank's variety packs are both off to a great start following their online introductions earlier this year. In EMEA, we continue to have solid share performance of herbs, spices, and seasonings in the U.K, Eastern Europe, and Italy, somewhat offset by softer performance in France. We're continuing to gain share on Frank's RedHot in the U.K. and are building momentum with Cholula. We're driving the U.K. hot sauce category growth. We're taking meaningful progress across the region in expanding our distribution and gaining share in the fast-growing discount channel. Our investments in brand marketing, merchandising, and new products are proving to be effective in driving growth.
In the Asia Pacific region, growth for the quarter and the year was impacted by the exit of low-margin business in India, which we will have lapped after this quarter, as well as the COVID-related disruptions in China. As we have moved past the Chinese New Year, we are seeing a return to normalization. We continue to expect the benefit beginning in the second quarter from lapping the impact of last year's disruptions. Outside of the China and India impacts, growth in the region was driven by new products and brand marketing initiatives. Frank's RedHot and Cholula performance was strong in Australia, and extending the power of our brands, we have launched Old Bay into the Australian market and Cholula into Southeast Asia.
As always, we continue to fuel our Consumer segment growth with the power of our brands, as well as our brand marketing, new products, and category management initiatives. We're excited about the growth plans we're executing and expect they will drive an acceleration of growth for the balance of the year. First, as we mentioned at CAGNY, we are completely renovating our U.S. core everyday spice and herb portfolio with consumer-preferred packaging as well as through leveraging new FlavorSeal technology. The atmosphere in the bottle is nitrogen-flushed to remove oxygen, which means visibly fresher flavor, brighter color, and stronger aroma. The modern new SnapTite trademark lid seals in the aroma and freshness. We're also printing the product name and an easy-to-read best-by date on the top.
The new high-quality bottle and label design highlights the transparency and quality of our spices and herbs, and the bottle is made with 50% post-consumer recycled plastic, approximately a 20% carbon footprint reduction from the current package. We are really excited about these changes and so are consumers. Testing has confirmed 40% higher freshness perception, 2x higher preference, and a 25% increase in loyalty among current buyers. The product began rolling out last month. The transition on store shelves will happen over the course of the year, supported with our highest-spend brand marketing campaign of the past 5 years. Importantly, the new packaging fits right into the existing shelf spots. This is a seamless transition for our retail partners that we expect to drive category performance.
This initiative, coupled with other new product introductions I'll mention in a minute, along with our stabilized service levels, will build total distribution points and market share improvement as we go through the year, as we outlined last month at CAGNY. We're also expanding into the fast-growing Mexican aisle with authentic Mexican flavor of Cholula in new formats. We are launching Cholula taco recipe mixes as well as salsas based on authentic Mexican formulas and crafted in Mexico using locally sourced fresh tomatoes and tomatillos. Retail acceptance has been strong. Consumers will find these new products and the authenticity they are looking for on U.S. shelves soon. Product began shipping yesterday ahead of Cinco de Mayo. The rollout will continue over the course of the second quarter.
We're launching new products in the first half of 2023 to inspire consumers' flavor exploration as well as deliver the convenience consumers are looking for. In the Americas, we're kicking off the grilling season with new flavors, including a griller's choice marinade you can use as 3 different flavors. We're really excited about our new Stubb's Master Series. Made with technology from our FONA acquisition, these dry seasoning rubs capture real, authentic hardwood smoke flavor. Leveraging the product successes of 2022, we're extending our Tabitha Brown line into new flavors, formats, and channels. We're also launching a French's Creamy Roasted Garlic Mustard. In direct-to-consumer, we continue to grow our platform with new innovative flavors as a testing ground. In the club channel, we're launching a world flavors line.
In EMEA, we're enabling consumers to discover the authentic taste of America by introducing Old Bay to the U.K. market, as well as introducing a new line of products leveraging the French's brand, including American Favourites Recipe Kit. In the U.K, we also just launched Schwartz brand gravies, which are beating the top competitor on taste. In APZ, we've recently launched meal bases of favorite Keen's recipes, and we'll be launching a Gourmet Garden zesty lemon paste, both making consumers' flavor exploration easier. In China, we've introduced new packaging for our chicken bouillon product, a pouch with a resealable pour cap that makes it convenient for consumers and extends the open product shelf life by locking out moisture.
We're continuing to build our HEAT platform across all regions with the launch of new products, including in the U.S, Grill Mates Nashville Hot Chicken Seasoning, Frank's RedHot Dill Pickle Hot Sauce, and a Cholula Reserva crafted with 100% agave tequila. Our Flavor of the Year, Vietnamese x Cajun Style Seasoning. In China, we're introducing iconic Chinese city spicy blends, and in the U.K, Frank's RedHot spicy recipe mixes. Across all regions, we're increasing our brand marketing investments in 2023 and expect the most significant year-over-year increase in the second quarter. We will continue to support our brands with messaging on everyday use, value, and the superiority of our ingredients and flavors. More specifically, with mustard supply issues resolved, we've launched a Flavor Up campaign for mustard.
Are elevating our Mother of Sauce Cholula campaign to support the launch of the new format and capitalize on Cinco de Mayo. Of course, with grilling season starting during the quarter, we plan to reach grillers with our Just Flame and Flavor campaign. Our robust growth plans give us confidence in continuing to drive positive momentum. We believe they will all be a win for consumers, customers, our categories, and McCormick, differentiating us even more and strengthening our flavor leadership in core categories. Turning to Flavor Solutions on slide nine, our sales performance in this segment continues to be outstanding. This was our eighth consecutive quarter with double-digit sales growth. Our first quarter growth was led by pricing actions in all three regions, which, as we expected, accelerated versus previous quarters. Now for regional highlights. Our Americas first quarter strong sales growth was led by our flavors product category.
Within flavors, snack seasoning growth was strong, including volume growth related to new products and strength in our customers' iconic products, partially fueled by their marketing, as well as our improved ability to service our customers as we begin to realize the benefit of the capacity we're bringing online. Flavors for performance nutrition and health end market applications also contributed to our strong performance as we continue driving double-digit sales growth. We are winning with new customers and new products. Volume was tempered in the quarter by the pruning of some low-margin business, the impact of a very cold December on the away-from-home part of our portfolio, and lower volume of alcoholic beverage flavors due to what must have been a drier January than last year.
In EMEA, we continued to drive broad-based growth across the portfolio, which was led by higher sales to our quick service restaurant customers in the first quarter. Overall, our price realization nearly doubled versus last quarter. In APZ, we delivered solid volume growth in the markets outside of China, driven by demand from quick service restaurants, or QSRs, for our products to heat up their hot and spicy offerings. Overall, Flavor Solutions demand has remained strong, particularly in certain parts of our business in our Americas and EMEA regions. As we continue to bring additional capacity online and reduce both supply chain pressure and the extraordinary cost to service our customers, we appreciate their patience and collaboration.
We're continuing our positive sales growth momentum in Flavor Solutions. We're committed to restoring profitability in this segment, recovering margin while ensuring we keep our customers in supply and driving growth for both McCormick and our customers. We're confident we will achieve margin recovery. In our January earnings call, we said our price increases had just begun to catch up with the pace of inflation. We were beginning to recover the cost inflation our pricing lagged the last 2 years. This is continuing at an even greater rate than the first quarter. Earlier, I discussed optimizing our costs through our GOE program, which will contribute to the Flavor Solutions margin recovery. GOE will have a significant impact in the Flavor Solutions segment.
Finally, we continue to focus on driving growth in high-margin parts of our portfolio, such as the flavor product category volume growth I mentioned a few minutes ago in the Americas region. I'm excited to share the growth plans we're executing on and expect will continue to drive our growth momentum. We continue to fuel our Flavor Solutions segment growth using our differentiation, including our culinary foundation, our unique and powerful consumer insights advantage. Our proprietary technologies and our passion for providing our customers with a differentiated collaborative experience. While we cannot get too specific about product development, following a strong year of innovation in 2022, we carried a robust new product pipeline into 2023. As we mentioned at CAGNY, we are specifically targeting opportunities to grow in high-growth end markets. Applications such as savory snacks, alcoholic beverages, and performance nutrition, and have outpaced market growth.
As I just shared, our robust growth momentum continued in the first quarter. As we expect it will the balance of the year, capabilities we built for these categories are creating significant top-line opportunities. The power of McCormick and FONA together continues to fuel greater opportunities for growth. This acquisition is exceeding our expectations. We're capitalizing on opportunities to increase our sales to existing customers by cross-selling across our more comprehensive product offering and target new customers. We're leveraging our global footprint and capabilities to drive future growth. We're currently in the process of expanding performance nutrition into Canada, as well as localizing confectionary flavors at Ciati for a FONA customer.
Finally, in branded food service, we have a robust 2023 innovation agenda, launching more than double the new items than in 2022, including Frank's RedHot Nashville Hot, a line of Cholula Street Tacos, McCormick Culinary Global Blend, and a French's Dijon portion control packets. Our plans included continuing to leverage our culinary partnerships, inspire menu ideas with our customers, win placement on away from home menus, including with quick service restaurants, and drive growth with promotional activities. Our robust growth plans and Flavor Solutions also give us confidence in continuing our growth trajectory and drive our Flavor Solutions leadership. Now for summary comments before turning it over to Mike. Turning to slide 11, global demand for flavor remains the foundation of our sales growth, and we've intentionally focused on great fast-growing categories that will continue to differentiate our performance.
We continue to capitalize on the long-term consumer trends, healthy and flavorful cooking, increased digital engagement, trusted brands, and purpose-minded practices. McCormick is uniquely positioned to capitalize on this demand for great taste. With the breadth and reach of our strong global flavor portfolio, we're delivering flavor experiences for every meal occasion through our products and our customers' products and are driving growth. We are end-to-end flavor. The strength of our business model, the value of our products and capabilities, and the execution of our proven strategies give us confidence in our growth momentum and ability to continue navigating the dynamic global environment. As we look ahead to the balance of the year, we will continue to focus on capitalizing on strong demand, optimizing our cost structure, and positioning McCormick to deliver sustainable growth.
We have robust growth plans in place, including building momentum with our new products and HEAT platform, are delivering on our commitment to increasing our profit realization. We are confident with the successful execution of our plans and concrete actions, we will drive profitable growth in 2023. I want to recognize McCormick's employees around the world as they drive our momentum and success. I want to also thank all of our customers, suppliers, and investors for their collaboration and patience as we move beyond the unique environment we've been operating in since the onset of the pandemic. The fundamentals that drove our historical financial performance remain intact, we are confident we will continue to not only deliver strong sales growth, but also drive total shareholder return at an industry-leading pace. I'll turn it over to Mike.
Mike Smith (EVP and CFO)
Thanks, Lawrence. Good morning, everyone. Starting on slide 14, our top line constant currency sales grew 5% compared to the first quarter of last year. This growth was tempered by a 2% unfavorable impact from the Kitchen Basics divestiture, the exit of the Consumer business in Russia, and lower consumption due to the COVID-related disruption in China. In our Consumer segment, constant currency sales increased 1%, reflecting a 9% increase from pricing actions, partially offset by a 3% volume decline related to the Kitchen Basics, Russia, and China impacts I just mentioned, as well as a 5% decline in all other volume and product mix. On slide 15, Consumer sales in the Americas increased 4% in constant currency, including a 2% decline from the Kitchen Basics divestiture.
Growth was broad-based across all product categories driven by pricing actions, partially offset by lower volume. Lapping elevated demand due to Omicron in the first quarter of last year contributed to the volume decline. In EMEA, constant currency consumer sales declined 2%. Pricing actions were more than fully offset by lower volume and product mix, including a 4% unfavorable impact from the lower sales in Russia. Lapping elevated demand due to Omicron in the first quarter of last year contributed to the volume decline. Constant currency consumer sales in the Asia Pacific region declined 8%, driven by a decline in volume, partially offset by pricing actions. The combination of lower volume in China due to COVID-related disruptions and the exit of lower margin business in India drove an 11% reduction in volume.
Turning to our Flavor Solutions segment in slide 18, we grew first quarter constant currency sales 12%, reflecting a 13% increase from pricing actions and a 1% decline in volume and mix. In the Americas, Flavor Solutions constant currency sales rose 12%. Pricing actions contributed to higher sales across the customer base, which skews to packaged food and beverage companies, as well as branded food service customers. Volume and product mix declined in the quarter as strong volume growth in snack seasonings and flavors for performance nutrition and health applications was more than fully offset by the impact of pruning of low margin businesses and lower volume of away from home products as our customers' business was impacted by cold weather. In EMEA, constant currency sales increased 17% with pricing actions partially offset by lower volume and product mix.
EMEA's Flavor Solutions outstanding growth was broad-based across its portfolio, led by higher sales to QSR customers. First quarter volume declined, driven primarily by softness in some of our packaged food and beverage customers' volume within their own businesses. In the Asia Pacific region, Flavor Solutions sales grew 5% in constant currency, with pricing actions partially offset by lower volume and product mix. Volume and product mix declined as the impact of scaled back QSR activities in China due to COVID-related disruptions more than offset QSR volume growth outside of China. As seen on slide 22, gross profit margin declined 80 basis points in the first quarter versus the year ago period.
This is an improvement from our performance last year. While more work needs to be done, we are pleased with our progress and are confident in the actions underway to continue driving further improvement over the balance of the year. Gross margin in the quarter was impacted by several drivers. First, we're still incurring elevated costs in Flavor Solutions to meet high demand in certain parts of our business. While painful in the short term, we know making these investments to support our customers is the right approach to driving long-term growth. That said, we continue to progress on reducing the level of these costs in the first quarter. Also in Flavor Solutions, we incur dual running costs related to the transition to our new U.K. Peterborough manufacturing facility. We expect the balance of the year cost to be comparable to 2022.
A sales shift between our Consumer and Flavor Solutions segments as compared to last year unfavorably impacted gross margin. Partially offsetting the unfavorable drivers I just mentioned were our CCI-led cost savings, as well as the cost savings from our GOE program that Lawrence discussed and which were in line with our expectations. Finally, end of note, we offset current year inflation in the first quarter, which we expect will be the highest of the year through our pricing actions. As Lawrence said, we continue to recover the cost inflation our pricing lagged over the last two years as we planned. While the net of these impacts drives gross profit dollar growth, there is still a level of dilution that tempers the actual gross margin percentage. Moving to slide 23, selling general and administrative expenses, or SG&A, were comparable to the first quarter of last year.
Higher distribution costs were offset by CCI-led and GOE cost savings, as well as lower planned brand marketing and employee benefit expenses in the quarter. For the year, we continue to expect both brand marketing and employee benefits expenses to be higher than last year. As a percentage of sales, SG&A declined 40 basis points driven by leverage from sales growth. Higher sales, partially offset by lower gross margin, resulted in a constant currency increase in adjusted operating income of 2% compared to the first quarter of 2022. In constant currency, Consumer segment adjusted operating income increased 6%, and in the Flavor Solutions segment, it declined 11%. Turning to interest expense and income taxes on slide 24. Our interest expense increased significantly over the first quarter of 2022, driven by the higher rate environment.
Our first quarter adjusted effective tax rate was 21.8% compared to 19.7% in the year ago period. Both periods were favorably impacted by discrete tax items with a more significant impact last year. At the bottom line, as shown on slide 25, first quarter 2023 adjusted earnings per share was $0.59 as compared to $0.63 for the year ago period. The decrease was due to higher interest expense and a higher first quarter adjusted effective tax rate. On slide 26, we've summarized highlights for cash flow and the quarter end balance sheet. Our cash flow from operations for the first quarter was $103 million compared to $18 million in the first quarter of 2022. The increase was primarily driven by lower incentive compensation payments.
We returned $105 million of cash to our shareholders through dividends and used $62 million for capital expenditures this quarter. We expect 2023 to be a year of strong cash flow driven by our profit and working capital initiatives. Our priority is to continue to have a balanced use of cash, funding investments to drive growth, returning a significant portion to our shareholders through dividends and paying down debt. We remain committed to a strong investment-grade rating, and we have a history of strong cash generation and profit realization. Turning to our financial outlook on slide 27. Our 2023 outlook reflects our continued positive top-line growth moment-momentum, and with the optimization of our cost structure, increased profit realization.
We expect to drive margin expansion with strong sales and adjusted operating income growth that reflects the health of our underlying business performance, as well as the net favorable impact from several discrete drivers. We expect our adjusted operating profit growth will be partially offset below operating profit by higher interest expense and a higher projected effective tax rate. We also expect there will be a minimal impact from currency rates, although there will be a timing aspect as we project an unfavorable impact in the first half of the year and a favorable impact in the second half of the year. At the top line, we expect to grow sales 5%-7%, driven primarily by the wrap of last year's pricing actions, combined with new pricing actions we are taking in 2023.
We expect several factors to impact our volume and product mix over the course of the year, including price elasticities, which are consistent with 2022 at lower levels than we have historically experienced, but in line with the current environment. A 1% estimated benefit from lapping last year's impact of COVID-related disruptions in China, although we expect the impact will vary from quarter to quarter, given 2022's level of demand volatility. The divestiture of our Kitchen Basics business in August of last year and the exit of our consumer business in Russia during last year's second quarter. Finally, the continual pruning of lower-margin business from our portfolio. As always, we plan to drive growth through the strength of our brands as well as our category management, brand marketing, new products, and customer engagement plans.
Our 2023 adjusted gross margin is projected to range between 25 basis points-75 basis points higher than 2022. This adjusted gross margin expansion reflects a favorable impact from pricing, cost savings from our CCI-led and GOE programs, partially offset by the anticipated impact of a low-to-mid-teens increase in cost inflation. We expect cost pressures to be more than offset by pricing during the year as we recover the cost inflation our pricing lagged the last two years. Moving to adjusted operating income, First, let me walk through some discrete items and their expected impact to our 2023 adjusted operating profit growth. First, the cost savings from our GOE program are expected to have an 800 basis point impact. The savings from this program are expected to scale up as the year progresses.
Next, the benefit of lapping the impact of COVID-related disruptions in China is expected to have a 300 basis point favorable impact. The Kitchen Basics divestiture is expected to have an unfavorable 100 basis point impact. Finally, an 8 basis points-100 basis point unfavorable impact is expected as we build back incentive compensation. The net impact of these discrete items is a favorable 200 basis points. This favorable impact, combined with expected 7%-9% underlying business growth, which is driven by our improved operating momentum, results in our adjusted operating income projection of 9%-11%. In addition to the adjusted gross margin impact I just mentioned, this projection also includes a further low single-digit increase in brand marketing investments and our CCI-led cost savings target of approximately $85 million.
We are anticipating a meaningful step-up in interest expense driven by the higher interest rate environment, which will impact our floating debt. We estimate that our interest expense will range from $200 million-$210 million in 2023, spread evenly throughout the year. As a reminder, in 2022, we realized an $18 million favorable impact from optimizing our debt portfolio, which we will lap in 2023. The net impact of these interest-related items is expected to be approximately an 800 basis point headwind to our 2023 adjusted earnings per share growth. Our 2023 adjusted effective income tax rate is projected to be approximately 22% based upon our estimated mix of earnings by geography, as well as factoring in a level of discrete impacts.
Versus our 2022 adjusted effective tax rate, we expect this outlook is to be a 100 basis point headwind to our 2023 earnings growth. To summarize, our 2023 adjusted earnings per share expectations reflect strong underlying business growth of 8%-10% and a 2% net favorable impact from the discrete items I just mentioned impacting profit. The GOE program, the China recovery, the Kitchen Basics divestiture, and the employee benefit cost rebuild, partially offset by the combined interest and tax headwind of 9%. This results in an expected increase of 1%-3% or a projected guidance range for adjusted earnings per share in 2023 of $2.56-$2.61.
We are projecting strong operating performance in 2023, with the continued top-line momentum, significant optimization of our cost structure, and strong adjusted operating profit growth, as well as margin expansion. While this performance is expected to be tempered by interest and tax headwinds, we remain confident in the underlying strength of our business, and that with the execution of our proven strategies, we will drive profitable growth in 2023.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
Thank you, Mike. Now that Mike has shared our financial results and outlook in more detail, I'd like to recap the key takeaways as seen on slide 29. Our first quarter sales growth reflects the strength of our broad global portfolio and the effective execution of our strategies. Our underlying business performance was driven by our pricing actions and strong ongoing demand. Our first quarter progress on margin improvement reflects the level of urgency with which we are addressing the pressure points from last year. We're committed to increasing our profit realization, and our actions are yielding results on optimizing our cost structure and recovering the cost inflation our pricing lagged last year. We expect our progress to scale up as the year progresses. We have robust growth plans in place, including building momentum with product innovation and renovation, and are driving improvement in our margin profile.
We expect to drive profitable sales growth at an accelerated rate for the balance of the year and have bolstered confidence in delivering our outlook for 2023 and building shareholder value. The compounding benefit of our relentless focus on growth, performance, and people continues to position McCormick to drive sales growth. This, coupled with our focus on recovering cost inflation and lowering costs to expand margins, will allow us to realize long-term sustainable earnings growth. Now for your questions.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. We'll now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you'd like to ask a question today, please press star one from your telephone keypad, and a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press Star two if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participants who are using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment please, while we poll for questions. Thank you. Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Ken Goldman with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your questions.
Ken Goldman (Equity Research Analyst)
Hi. Thank you. Good morning.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
Hey, Ken.
Ken Goldman (Equity Research Analyst)
I was just curious, you know, how 1Q came in versus your internal expectations. I guess both in a broad sense and maybe if anything specific stands out in terms of drivers. I won't ask if you considered raising guidance. I assume it's a little early in the year, but if the quarter was above what you would forecast, were there specific reasons that stand out? I guess, is there any reason to think some of those drivers can't continue into 2Q and beyond, maybe?
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
Well, Ken, thanks. We are off to a solid start on the year, that is for sure. We're really pleased with the start of the year. We had good sales growth, and we made excellent progress on our plans for improved profit realization. Most of our pricing that we have planned for the year is in place, and our GOE program is beginning to show results. As I said, we are bolstered in our confidence in our guidance, in part because, you know, the quarter did come in a little bit better than we planned. There's no one specific thing that stands out, but overall, it was a little bit better. We had a sense of that confidence already when we spoke at CAGNY.
From where we were at that time, it came in pretty much as we thought.
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
As you said, Ken, it's the first quarter, to use a March Madness thing where we put some points on the board and we're gonna continue focusing on growing the business. You know, as Lawrence said, we've made really good progress on our cost agenda too, which is great.
Ken Goldman (Equity Research Analyst)
Got it. Thank you for that. Sort of along the same lines, but maybe more specifically, you know, Flavor Solutions volume, you know, they were down slightly in the 1st quarter, but, you know, it was your hardest comp of the year. It was high pricing. It seems that they're doing pretty well in the scheme of things. Just curious how to think about modeling, you know, volumes for Flavor Solutions into and for the rest of the 2Q, rather, and for the rest of the year. You know, just given that there may be a little more moving pieces than usual. You have that pricing, and then you guys mentioned some headwinds in 1Q, maybe some lower sales to CPGs and EMEIA, for example.
Just wanted to get a sense of that kind of cadence as we go through the year, as far as you can tell now.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
Sure. You know, it was a strong performance. You know, in our guide for the year, we've, you know, said our volumes are gonna be flattish overall. I'd say, you know, where our expectation, you know, by segment, is, you know, you know, maybe, you know, a little bit positive in Flavor Solutions, a little bit negative in Consumer, but overall, you know, all of it within, you know, kind of a ±1 range versus flat. I think that's a, you know, good way to think about it. We do expect to see, you know, strong pricing impact the year, as we, you know, go through the whole year on Flavor Solutions.
Ken Goldman (Equity Research Analyst)
Thanks so much.
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
You know, I would just.
Ken Goldman (Equity Research Analyst)
Oh.
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
Ken, just to maybe add a few thoughts to that. You know, we did see volume strength in our portfolio, especially, you know, I think we called it out in the script, but just from snack seasonings to performance nutrition and health, and that's pretty consistent with what we've been seeing. The offsets really are not related to price elasticity. I think that's maybe important to call out. There was a couple, you know, things noted like some cold weather impact on branded food service, or, you know, we're certainly seeing an inflationary impact on our customer base in EMEA. They're going through a fair amount of inflation right now in that market, the consumer is. Just natural pruning of lower margin business.
Those are having an impact too on the volume profile. I think our confidence still for the balance of the year is where Lawrence placed it.
Ken Goldman (Equity Research Analyst)
Makes sense. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Our next question is from the line of Andrew Lazar with Barclays. Please proceed with your questions.
Andrew Lazar (Managing Director)
Great. Thanks. Good morning, everybody.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
Hey, Andrew.
Andrew Lazar (Managing Director)
Hey. I was hoping we could talk a little bit about what you're seeing evolve in terms of price gaps in core spices and seasonings versus private label, particularly with, you know, some of the incremental pricing that came into play sequentially in the first quarter.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
Hey, Brendan, why don't you take that one?
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
Yeah. Andrew, we still see price gaps continuing to narrow, you know, compared to private label. You know, it happened in Q4. We saw it again in Q1. It's really a result of seeing more private label taking price on the shelf. That seems to be coming through and reading through the scanner data. We would say, and what we're seeing is that the impact just continues to moderate. Again, it's pretty consistent with what we saw in Q4. You know, we really do believe a lot of our initiatives and focus on value is also having a positive impact on, you know, on our brands. You know, we continue those efforts, whether it's messaging or focused on value sizes, et cetera.
That's also probably having, you know, an impact too. That's really the nature of what we're seeing right now with regard to price gaps in private label.
Andrew Lazar (Managing Director)
Thank you. You mentioned, it's early, I know, but early results of sort of the Lawry's sort of value brand launch are kind of doing what you want it to do. I think you said that over half of the purchases are from new buyers to McCormick, I think overall incremental to the category. I'm just trying to get a sense of where, I guess, where are these, you know, new consumers to the category coming from, where they just didn't operate in this category before? You know, what is it about the Lawry's brand launch that's drawing, I guess, new consumers overall to the category? That's obviously particularly important, I guess, for your retail partners as well.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah, it is performing, you know, better than we expected right now. We're pretty pleased with the performance. You know, a lot of the volume that we are sourcing as, you know, we called out, you know, it's definitely incremental to from a retailer standpoint. Also, you know, a lot of new brand buyers are coming into the McCormick franchise, you know, through Lawry's. I think it's people seeking the brand. They're looking for value. We see that playing out, and it's been largely positive as we think about building out even more distribution. You know, these are some of the you know, the positive, you know, results that we're getting from this. It's just simply turning faster at shelf.
They're, you know, Lawry's brand, you know, really is appealing to, you know, sort of a number of consumers. It's really strong with Hispanic households. It's strong with, you know, many other sort of, you know, demographic groups, and we see them coming into those stores, you know, being offered. They may not be buying then, you know, private label, or they may not be buying in other retail outlets. That's where we see a lot of the growth coming from in the incrementality. You're gonna see more distribution growth on this, though, in 2023.
Andrew Lazar (Managing Director)
Thank you so much.
Operator (participant)
Our next question is from the line of Alexia Howard with Bernstein. Please proceed with your questions.
Alexia Howard (Research Analyst US Foods)
Good morning, everyone.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
Hi, Alexia.
Alexia Howard (Research Analyst US Foods)
Hi there. First question is on China. You called out the fact that the China lockdowns and disruption over there pressured sales this quarter. Is that getting better, and what should we expect in Q2? I have a follow-up.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
Well, of course, yeah, China was a really complicated story this quarter because, you know, our first quarter begins in December, and in December, the country was still largely in lockdown. Then they turned... Oops. Now they've got a train going by in the background. The country was largely in lockdown in December, then they reopened, and they had a very concentrated pandemic period where a huge proportion of the population... I wonder if we've lost power?
Alexia Howard (Research Analyst US Foods)
Right.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
Anyway, a huge proportion of the population, you know, got COVID. Yeah, you know, that was quite a big impact on the quarter. You know, we thought that post-Chinese New Year, we'd probably begin to see a recovery, and I think we're seeing that unfold after Chinese New Year in a positive way. In second quarter, we're gonna lap the lockdowns from last year, and we're expecting a significant recovery in China as we go through the second quarter. You know, we're certainly gonna have double-digit growth compared to year ago, unless there's some other exogenous shock. The question on that double digit is just what the first number is. It's gonna be big.
Alexia Howard (Research Analyst US Foods)
Great.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
Anything you want to comment on, Mike?
Mike Smith (EVP and CFO)
No. I just think, Alexia, we're optimistic that this normalization will continue to unfold in the market, and we expect to see much of that come through in Q2.
Alexia Howard (Research Analyst US Foods)
Great. Sorry about the noise there. It's we've got some very impatient taxi drivers out here on the New York City streets, apparently. Quick follow-up. Inventory. Retailer inventories were a big upset last quarter, in terms of the year-on-year changes. Is that now behind us, and are you seeing any shifts, particularly in North America, relative to the Nielsen data that we're seeing consumer takeaway versus versus shipment?
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
Well, I think that.
Alexia Howard (Research Analyst US Foods)
Thanks very much. That's enough.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
said that we thought that this would be behind us, you know, in first quarter. That largely has played out.
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
Yep.
Alexia Howard (Research Analyst US Foods)
Great. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Our next questions are from the line of Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.
Robert Moskow (Senior Equity Analyst Food and Food Retail)
Hi, good morning.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
Hi, Rob.
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
Good morning.
Robert Moskow (Senior Equity Analyst Food and Food Retail)
Hi. For modeling purposes, I wanted to know the phasing of the comparisons on your incentive comp. I couldn't quite tell in first quarter whether it was flat year-over-year or it was. Also for the rest of the year. You know, it's a big number for the full year. Can you tell us how to think about it.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
It is.
Robert Moskow (Senior Equity Analyst Food and Food Retail)
second and third?
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
I'm gonna let Mike go for this one.
Mike Smith (EVP and CFO)
It was a relatively small favorable in the first quarter, but it will build during the year, as we said on the last conference call. You know, third and fourth quarter, second half, as you think about it, will be significantly higher. That's where you'll see the impact.
Robert Moskow (Senior Equity Analyst Food and Food Retail)
Okay. When you said favorable, it was favorable in first-
Mike Smith (EVP and CFO)
Last year.
Robert Moskow (Senior Equity Analyst Food and Food Retail)
It's gonna be.
Mike Smith (EVP and CFO)
Slightly unfavorable at first, but over the next three quarters, really the third and fourth, the second half will be. That's where you'll see the incrementality versus last year.
Robert Moskow (Senior Equity Analyst Food and Food Retail)
Slight. Right. Right. Right. Okay. I guess a similar question on China. I remember you called out a $0.11 per share impact in 2Q last year. Can I assume you're gonna get all that back and more? In third, was there also an impact? It was never quantified, but it must be significant too.
Mike Smith (EVP and CFO)
Wait. Actually, kind of the second and fourth quarter negative impact, you know, we had a, you know, big negative impact in the second quarter and then had a reopening solid third quarter and then a re-lockdown in the fourth quarter, which is part of our miss in the fourth quarter. We had no idea that was gonna happen when we gave guidance. I think our full year guide is for the order of magnitude that you're talking about.
Yes. If you look at that chart, the 2023 outlook chart in our earnings deck, that 3% impact on the EPS, that's the full year impact, which is around.
Robert Moskow (Senior Equity Analyst Food and Food Retail)
Sure. Okay. It's really 2Q and 4Q that are the real-
Mike Smith (EVP and CFO)
Yeah. Yeah.
Robert Moskow (Senior Equity Analyst Food and Food Retail)
-comparisons.
Mike Smith (EVP and CFO)
Exactly. Yep.
Robert Moskow (Senior Equity Analyst Food and Food Retail)
Last question. Do you think your sales force will get some more momentum regaining shelf space that they lost in 2022 as a result of the packaging redesign? Is that kind of a good way to get in with retailers to, you know, regain some of the SKUs that were cut, or is it kind of a two separate discussions?
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
I think that absolutely there's a tremendous opportunity for our sales force, this year, for 2 reasons. you know, one is that our service is in much better condition so that we don't have as many unproductive conversations with our customers. The second is the sheer amount of innovation, and the balance that we're bringing to our customers is going to be really positive. Brendan, I'm going to ask you to just say a few words about that.
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
Yeah. It, it isn't as we would always say, Rob, it's never just one thing, it's a system of things. You know, that really drive that competitive strength and that applies, I think, to your question as well. Yeah, we have a big renovation plan, as you called out, and that's definitely gonna be a big lever. I think it's all about driving and improving the category. You know, our sales organization certainly is kind of selling behind a strength of story. We'll continue to reclaim, you know, distribution points not only over this year but also over next year. You know, that's part of the process of doing this. As Lawrence called out, I just think our innovation platform is gonna continue building, you know, also additional distribution points.
We really like our innovation platform, you know, and the items that we're coming out with this year, we expect to see, you know, a lot from that too. All of these things put together with just very strong level of brand marketing, you know, brings together a really, you know, strong category, you know, conversation with the retailer. I think importantly, though, we keep pointing out the performance of McCormick and our other brands on shelf just continues to sort of outperform competition. You know, those are the some of the things that we use in category management to really prove the case that it's a more productive shelf, the more McCormick guidance you have on it.
I think supporting those new products and our brands with that brand marketing, and we were slightly favorable in the first quarter versus last year, but you'll see in the second quarter that that support will increase year-on-year.
Robert Moskow (Senior Equity Analyst Food and Food Retail)
Got it. Thank you very much.
Operator (participant)
Our next question is from the line of Max Gumport with BNP Paribas. Please proceed with your questions.
Max Gumport (Director Equity Research)
Hey, thanks for the question. First one's on gross margin. It came in well above street expectations in the quarter. I recognize it's early, and you talked about putting points on the board. I do wonder that as you think about your path to mitigating the pressure points that impacted this line item last year, have your views changed at all? It would seem like with inflation expected to ramp down through the year and your GOE program expected to ramp up through the year, you might now have a bit more visibility towards the higher end of your previous 25 basis points-75 basis point guidance range.
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
You know, again, this is the first quarter. You know, the first quarter results though, do really give us, they bolster our confidence, as Lawrence said. You know, the pricing realization, you know, recovering those costs, you know, we've had and frankly over-recovering in the year, which gives us more confidence. The GOE program, the implementation of those programs, which are very pro-programmatic in nature, gives us more confidence. Before we start, you know, celebrating, we wanna, you know, again, put points on the board in the second quarter. I will note Consumer, you know, margins, operating profit margin, up 110 basis points in the first quarter. We're really happy with that. While Flavor Solutions is still negative, it was about 200 basis points less than last year.
There was sequential improvement from the fourth quarter, and we're, you know, really focused on driving those margins higher this year.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
I think you'll see as we go through the year that we will steadily improve that Flavor Solutions margin performance. As Mike said, you know, this is our first quarter. It's also the smallest quarter of the year. You know, we're certainly, you know, bolstered in our confidence, but we don't wanna get overconfident.
Max Gumport (Director Equity Research)
Great. Makes sense. Then on the GOE program, is there a number you're giving for the first quarter? I realize it's $75 million for the year, but just curious if you can give us a sense for what occurred.
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
Yeah, I mean, basically, like two months ago, we said it's a small impact in first building into the second, and then the second half is where you see the significant impact. It scales up.
Max Gumport (Director Equity Research)
Great. Thanks very much.
Operator (participant)
Our next question is from the line of Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your questions.
Steve Powers (Equity Research Analyst)
Yes. Thank you. Just going back, maybe to the question on trade inventory that I think Alexia originally raised
Just to play it back, it seems like, from what you had said before, that you exited the quarter with trade inventory, levels roughly in balance on the Consumer business. Just wanna make sure that was correct. As we go forward, I guess the base case is that you ship, you know, more or less to consumption for the balance of the year with maybe a little bit of opportunity to ship ahead to the extent that the renovation work leads to those incremental distribution points. Is that the right interpretation of what you said so far?
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
Well, I think if I took the question mark off and replaced it with a period, we would have the answer. Brendan, did you wanna comment on that?
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
I mean, maybe Steve, just to focus on the front end of your question first, what we saw in the first quarter, we did shipments were in line with consumption. I think more importantly, the dynamics that we would typically see in a first quarter following a holiday season played out as it behaved much like, you know, a normal period of time. That's what we had hoped to see in Q1. That's what we did see in Q1. What that, you know, I think means looking ahead now, which is kind of the back end of your question is, you know, we see things normalizing and operating a little bit more like we would typically, you know, operate.
I'd have to think a little bit of what that means by the end of the year, but we would just see a shift to consumption, you know, model really play out as we normally do. Just remember though, in that 4th quarter, we have a big that's our biggest quarter of the year and our big holiday season. We tend to kinda even things out after Q1, and then, you know, sort of life begins again as we think about that cycle. That's the way I would think about it. The important takeaway for me, and I think maybe in this call, is that, you know, we saw normalization of that how that would typically behave in Q1.
Steve Powers (Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. Okay. Very good. Thank you very much.
Operator (participant)
Our next question is from the line of Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your questions.
Adam Samuelson (VP Equity Research Agribusiness and Packaging)
Yes, thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
Morning.
Adam Samuelson (VP Equity Research Agribusiness and Packaging)
I guess I wanted to come back to Flavor Solutions. I think the comment in response to an earlier question was kinda expect to see the margins there build through the year. That's also I think where the majority of the Global Operating Effectiveness program would show up. Can you just remind us this year kind of the excess cost that you're carrying for the U.K. facility as you execute this, the changeover to the new plant, and we think about that layering out of the system in 2024 and beyond? Maybe more broadly, help us think about the roadmap to building the Flavor Solutions margins back up to the mid-teens level that they were at pre-COVID.
Mike Smith (EVP and CFO)
Yeah. I mean, we're roughly comparable on the Littleborough facility the last year, as we said. I mean,
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
After this quarter.
Mike Smith (EVP and CFO)
After this quarter, into, you know, into next year. There's still gonna be some carryover into next year, so I'd almost hesitate to say a number right now. Overall, we've said before around $20 million of kind of dual running costs on an annual basis. A good chunk of that should go away next year. Again, that depends on there's a lot of factors relating into that. If you think about this year with Flavor Solutions, you know, the first quarter is when the highest commodity and other costs were, and that will, just like on the Consumer side of the business, that will go down the rest of the year. Pricing realization will support that.
Then the GOE business, I mean, or the GOE program, that, and that really benefits both of our segments, too. I, like, I wouldn't say all of it's going to Flavor Solutions. It's really across the board where we've had inefficiencies that have built up in the system since the pre-pandemic. We've called out some of those very clear examples in Flavor Solutions like co-packs and things like that, it really is a more broad-based program.
Adam Samuelson (VP Equity Research Agribusiness and Packaging)
I guess then, as we think about kind of the exiting this year on Flavor Solutions, beyond, I mean, you're still kind of the margin structure of the business still seems to be well below where you were a couple of years ago. Just trying to think about kind of some of the building blocks, whether it's, hey, concentrated customer base and getting kind of the full price recovery there. Is it mix? Is it capacity? I'm just trying to think about where the margins had gotten to in 2018, 2019, exiting this year, they're still gonna be in kind of high single-digit range, I think, and how we think about there.
Mike Smith (EVP and CFO)
We think we have a long runway of improvement in Flavor Solutions margins. You refer back to 2018 and 2019, I mean, our margins were in the 14%-ish range, and, you know, we feel we can get back there over time as we, you know, we recover those costs we've talked about, as costs moderate, as we get more efficient. We don't see 2019 as really the ceiling. You know, portfolio, the pruning portfolio, driving more toward the higher margin products that you've seen accelerated growth there we talked about today. You know, it's not gonna happen, snap your fingers, by the end of this year. This is a, you know, a program that is gonna play out over the next couple of years.
Adam Samuelson (VP Equity Research Agribusiness and Packaging)
Well, I get that it's not gonna happen just this year, but can if I just push and the business mix isn't all that different today versus where it was three or four years ago. Apart from we've had all this big run of inflation, what's really changed in terms of the profitability of the portfolio today?
Mike Smith (EVP and CFO)
Well, I mean, the three things we said in the last earnings call were the significant inflation, and we're recovering that inflation now through incremental pricing. The significant incremental costs we've incurred since pre-COVID, we're addressing them through the GOE program across both segments, and the incremental cost for driving additional capacities as an example, our Littleborough investment. Those three things have really driven
That operating profit, degradation, which we are in the process of now reversing.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
I would say that it's not true that the business mix has not changed. The business mix has changed and, you know, we continue our portfolio migration towards more value-added products. You know, you hear us talking about pruning the portfolio. We have not been specific because, you know, we don't wanna talk about things that are that might be identifiable to a specific customer. There's definitely been a movement, you know, within our portfolio both by category and within product categories to improve that business for the long term.
You know, when Mike said that we don't look at the pre-pandemic operating margin as a ceiling, you know, as we said at the time, you know, we look to some of our pure labor house peers who publish public numbers who have significantly higher operating margins. That's more what we aspire to in the very long run.
Adam Samuelson (VP Equity Research Agribusiness and Packaging)
Okay. I appreciate all of that color. I'll pass it on. Thank you.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Peter Galbo with Bank of America. Please assist you with your question.
Peter Galbo (Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Hey, guys. Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
Morning, Peter.
Peter Galbo (Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Mike, just to go back to the question around kinda GOE and just square some of the gross margin kinda math, you know, on the quarter. It seemed like you were saying GOE was pretty minimal in terms of contribution to gross in 1 Q. Maybe you can just help us, like, the other components, you know, what did CCI contribute in 1 Q? Just where did the actual inflation rate, the COGS inflation rate in the quarter fall relative to that, you know, low to mid-teen number for the year?
Mike Smith (EVP and CFO)
Well, we said, you know, the first quarter is the highest of our inflation rates, and it turned out to be that way, and it will go down the rest of the year sequentially. You know, GOE was a small impact as you refer to. CCI, you know, roughly it is really spread throughout the year, so we don't get really specific around when CCI occurs because it's a continuous program. You have every quarter, you know, it's approximately the same level as last year or slightly higher, depending on, you know, your guide. We said, you know, that this year's $85 million, last year was $85 million, probably roughly the same.
You know, I think as you think about, you know, the margin improvement, you know, the pricing realization that we've seen and, you know, as you've seen in our numbers, is really driving a good chunk of that. That's what gives us confidence on the rest of the year, too. We're recovering these costs we said that we incurred the last couple years. We're catching up this year, and you've seen that in the first quarter.
Peter Galbo (Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Great. That's helpful. Lawrence, maybe just, you know, you talked a little bit about grilling season and, you know, some of the new product innovation. We've heard from some others, you know, as well. Just curious how you're thinking about promotional, maybe cadence over some of the summer holidays, if that's, you know, maybe the depths aren't back to a more normal level. Are you seeing a chance to maybe increase promotional frequency as you get into some of your bigger, you know, more important holiday seasons?
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
Actually, I would say that, you know, with our improved service levels, I'd say our promotional levels have also normalized. You know, we're able to support promotional volumes now. You know, the promotions that we run tend to be ROI positive. You know, I think that's an important part that, of building back market share, that we didn't talk about actually in making our points, and I'm glad you asked the question.
Peter Galbo (Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Great. Thank you.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
I would also say that sometimes promotion is thought of as dealing back price. That is not what we're talking about. We're talking about quality merchandising events that drive consumer takeaway.
Mike Smith (EVP and CFO)
Hey, we're gonna, I know we're a little bit over time, but we're gonna take everybody's question. As long as they're not too long.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Cody Ross with UBS. Please proceed with your questions.
Cody Ross (Analyst)
Good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking our questions. I just wanted to hit back on the last question as it related to your volume expectations for the quarter. How do you think about promotions for the rest of the year, especially in terms of what your competitors are doing? Are you seeing promotions increase? As it's related, how did your volume come in in the quarter relative to your expectations?
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
Well, you know, as I said, I think our, you know, well, our ability to supply, we've also gone back to, you know, full schedule of merchandising activity with our customers. I think that's part of what gives us confidence in our outlook for the year, frankly, is that, you know, we're able to have, you know, those kinds of positive conversations with our customers and as opposed to some of the negative ones that we might have been having over the last few years about supply and their desire to promote.
I mean, I think some great examples are like our French's Mustard, where, you know, we finally have bottles in supply and we've been able to drive 20% volume growth there, you know, for the last 2 quarters and gain significant share. I think we're going to do a similar thing with grilling products. You know, I think the renewal of our ability to meet our core product demand has also allowed us to innovate. And so, you know, those promotions in many cases are showcasing our, you know, new products in store, which also, I think will contribute to, you know, to, you know, to volume. And, you know, again, our outlook for volume on the Consumer side of the business is relatively flat for the year.
You know, I think, you know, we're up against a tough comparison in the first quarter, and that's part of the reason why volume is down. You know, we're lapping Omicron a year ago and so on. But I think we're pretty optimistic actually on volume. You know, the pricing actions that we needed to take are front-end loaded to the year. Again, I think that that's something that is not in the way of growing our volume.
Cody Ross (Analyst)
Thank you for that. Just one last question, more on capital allocation. Your leverage stands above four times. You called that out as a reason why interest expense is moving higher this year. Historically, share repurchases have not been a big use of cash. Just given the difficult operating environment in the credit markets right now, can you share with us how you think about prioritizing debt paydown versus M&A? In that context, can you also update us on what the M&A pipeline looks like right now? Thank you.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
It's always dangerous when the CEO talks about capital allocation, so I'm gonna let Mike do most of the talking here. The one thing I'll say about M&A is it's not our priority right now, but we would not miss a good strategic opportunity.
Mike Smith (EVP and CFO)
Yeah. I'd say, you know, like we've said at, both at CAGNY and probably in the earnings call, last earnings call 2 months ago, I mean, our priorities right now is, you know, paying down debt, you know, generating more cash, getting our debt to EBITDA back down to 3x by the end of 2024. Really nothing has changed from that. We continue, you know, as Lawrence said, we continue to look at great assets along the way, but, you know, our priority right now is paying down debt.
Cody Ross (Analyst)
Great. Thank you very much. I'll pass it on.
Mike Smith (EVP and CFO)
Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our final question is from the line of Rob Dickerson with Jefferies. Please proceed with your questions.
Rob Dickerson (Managing Director)
great. Thanks so much.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
Hey, Rob.
Rob Dickerson (Managing Director)
Hey, how's it going? I guess just the first question on the top line, simplistically said, obviously there's some expected tailwinds coming from China as we get through Q2 and lap some Omicron pressure, et cetera. Just in terms of that kind of expected acceleration, is that fairly similar in Consumer relative to Flavor Solutions? Just obviously because you have a little bit of a clearly easier compare on the volume side in Consumer. Secondly, just kind of any perspective as to it seems like you've been able to take a little bit more incremental pricing in Flavor Solutions versus Consumer and maybe just why that is. I have a quick follow-up.
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
Yeah, I would say, Rob, you know, as we take a look at, you know, kind of the profile that you see in the first quarter, I think, you know, that's probably a profile largely that you'll see carried out through the rest of the year. You know, as Mike and Lawrence have said a couple of times, we expect volume to be kind of in that plus or minus to 1% range. There's, you know, effectively more pricing in Flavor Solutions just a result of, you know, kind of the inflation profile that we've talked about. That should provide I think, a little bit of indication as to how we think about, you know, sort of the balance between Flavor Solutions and Consumer on the sales line.
you know, having said that, we expect continued underlying strength as we go throughout the year in our Consumer business too. The profile that you see in Q1, I think it tends to move forward that way throughout the rest of the quarters.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
I will say that, you know, on the Consumer side, we have tremendous growth plans, including a lot of innovation and the renovation of our everyday spice line hitting the market in second quarter, and a number of major customer wins that are gonna go on shelf in the third quarter. We're expecting a strong recovery in China in the second quarter. While it's a dynamic environment, we are actually really encouraged about the sales outlook for the rest of the year.
Rob Dickerson (Managing Director)
Okay, super. Then I guess, maybe more for you, Lawrence, you know, some questions asked already just around kinda mix of the business, how you're thinking about price gaps and private label in the U.S. You know, we've heard from a number of companies over the past couple of years, and we've seen, you know, actions taken, you know, to potentially divest certain pieces of the business to kind of reduce overall private label exposure. Clearly, you would not be divesting your U.S. spices and herbs business. Right? I
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
That's not a good idea, Rob.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
That's not part of our capital allocation plan.
Rob Dickerson (Managing Director)
Exactly. Low profitability. I am curious, you know, just kinda given your commentary on, you know, product pruning and lower margin businesses and then this innovation slate you have, I mean, there still is some innovation, you know, kinda coming in the core spices and seasonings business. When I look at, like, Cholula and I look at Frank's, you know, it would seem like, you know, there's a little bit, you know, higher share in those brands, you know, better market penetration potential, maybe less private label exposure.
You know, as you think of those innovation plans on a go forward as it, you know, also relates back to the overall mix of the business, would you say it's kind of, you know, part of the internal plan to be pushing on that part of the business, maybe more on the innovation side, you know, relative to, you know, let's say like, you know, special organic pepper?
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
I will say that that is a wide-ranging question, and I could go absolutely buck wild answering it. You know, we have gotten rid of some, you know, because, you know, when we've said we're pruning the business, I mean, some of it's not visible as we talked about on a, on a previous question, but some of it is. You know, Kitchen Basics, for example, is a brand that while it's a great brand, we liked it a lot. It was the only thing we had in that aisle. It was hard for us to bring our category management tools to bear on it, and, and it was a little bit of an orphan. You know, there it was.
There was a bit, you know, of pressure, both from leading brands and from private label, you know, on that. We didn't see a good path to grow it with a good return for us. We were just the wrong owner of that brand. So we thought about other parts of our portfolio that way. The things that we've gotten out of have tended to be, you know, pretty small, though. That's a good example of one of the bigger things that we've done.
You know, most of the other things we've gotten out of have, you know, been small or would be less familiar to you because they're in a different region of the world. You know, the innovation that we will do is differentiated. You know, it, you know, brings more differentiation to our brand. You know, flavors, blends that are, you know, hard to duplicate. We've brought FONA technology into some of our innovation as we have with, you know, with the True Taste technology that we're using in our new Stubb's rubs. I think we just set a tough act to follow.
The renovation that we're doing on our core herbs and spice brands is gonna be very differentiating, not just versus private label, but versus other brands. I mean, you know, to be able to, you know, you know, have that, you know, oxygen-free atmosphere that it's gonna bring freshness, you know, to the market, and, you know, a better appearance and aroma for consumers, that is gonna be very differentiating and difficult to follow quickly. That's for sure. A lot of the, you know, the things that we're doing around that renovation are either trademarked or patented. I think...
I mean, I think that everything you look at, you know, whether it's the pruning of our portfolio or the migration of our portfolio to, you know, higher value, more technically insulated products on the flavor side to the innovation that we're bringing in our brands, you know, serves to differentiate us, extend our leadership and push the gap between us and private label to be more of a discussion around total value and cost and benefit than just about the cheapest price. We really love the categories we're in, whether it's S&E or Frank's RedHot, things like that. It's, we've intentionally picked these categories.
Rob Dickerson (Managing Director)
All right. Got it. Good answer. We'll end it there.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
Thanks for the question. That is our final question. I was waiting for the moderator to possibly say something, but that's okay. It's not necessary. You know, McCormick's alignment with consumer trends and the rising demand for flavor, in combination with the breadth and reach of our global portfolio and our strategic investments, provide a strong foundation for sustainable growth. We are disciplined and are focused on the right opportunities and investing in our business. We're continuing to drive further growth as we successfully execute on our long-term strategies, actively respond to changing consumer behavior, and capitalize on opportunities from our relative strength. We continue to be well positioned for continued success and remain committed to driving long-term value for our shareholders.
Kasey Jenkins (Chief Strategy Officer and SVP Investor Relations)
Thank you, Lawrence, thank you to everybody for joining today's call. If you have any other questions that require follow-up, please feel free to contact me. This concludes this morning's call. Thank you all, have a great day.