McCormick & Company - Q2 2023
June 29, 2023
Transcript
Kasey Jenkins (Chief Growth Officer)
Good morning. This is Kasey Jenkins, Chief Growth Officer. Thank you for joining today's second quarter earnings call. To accompany this call, we have posted a set of slides at ir.mccormick.com. With me this morning are Lawrence Kurzius, Chairman and CEO; Brendan Foley, President and COO; and Mike Smith, Executive Vice President and CFO. I would also like to welcome Faten Freiha, joining us on this call this morning. Faten joined McCormick earlier this month as Vice President, Investor Relations. During this call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. The nature of those non-GAAP financial measures and the related reconciliations to the GAAP results are included in this morning's press release and slides. In our comments, certain percentages are rounded. Please refer to our presentation for complete information. Today's presentation contains projections and other forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those projected.
The company undertakes no obligation to update or revise publicly any forward-looking statement, whether because of new information, future events, or other factors. Please refer to our forward-looking statement on slide 2 for more information. I will now turn the discussion over to Lawrence.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. Last night, we announced that Brendan Foley will become McCormick's next Chief Executive Officer on September first, and he is joining the board of directors immediately. I could not be more pleased with Brendan as my successor. I will continue to serve McCormick and all of its stakeholders as Executive Chairman of the Board once Brendan becomes CEO. This is a transition that we have been planning internally as part of an orderly, multi-year succession plan, and it's exciting to finally share the news with all of you. As many of you know, Brendan is exceptionally well qualified and prepared to lead McCormick. He deeply understands the importance of delivering continued strong growth while doing the right things for people, communities, and the planet.
With our advantaged competitive positioning, supported by the growing demand for flavor and with our tremendous depth of talent, I have utmost confidence that McCormick, under Brendan's leadership, will continue to drive differentiated growth and long-term shareholder value. Congratulations, Brendan. On to our earnings update. First, I'll provide an overview of our second quarter results. Brendan will provide the business segment updates. Mike will provide details on our financial results and 2023 outlook. After your questions, I will have some final comments. Starting with our second quarter results, we're pleased with our strong second quarter performance, which reflects sustained demand across our business and the effective execution of our strategies. We delivered double-digit constant currency sales growth. Our pricing actions are in place. Importantly, our volume performance improved. We continue to see top-line momentum in our business, positioning McCormick for sustained growth.
Additionally, we drove meaningful year-over-year margin expansion in both segments, underscoring our focus on profit realization. Our Global Operating Effectiveness, or GOE program, which includes the optimization of our supply chain cost structure, is yielding results. We grew adjusted earnings per share 25%, driven by significant adjusted operating income growth and despite interest rate and tax headwinds. Year to date, cash flow from operations more than doubled, driven by higher earnings I just mentioned and working capital improvements. Notably, we're reducing inventory levels as planned. Both segments in all regions contributed with strong growth. Our results benefited from our recovery in China, while the timing and pace of recovery in our China business was less robust than anticipated, it was still strong, and we are confident in the contribution China will provide to our results as the year progresses.
Overall, we are pleased with our execution and results during the first half of 2023. Our year-to-date results, combined with the strong demand we continue to expect across our portfolio and our diligent approach to optimizing our cost structure, bolster our confidence in our growth trajectory as we enter the second half of the year. As such, we are raising our adjusted operating income and earnings per share outlook for the full year. Turning to slide 5. In the second quarter, we drove 8% sales growth, or 10% in constant currency. Our constant currency sales growth reflected strong business performance, with an 11% contribution from pricing and a 1% decline in volume and product mix.
Netted in this volume decline, our net 1% volume increase from China recovery, partially offset by our Kitchen Basics divestiture and the exit of our consumer business in Russia, and 1% decline attributable to pruning low-margin business. As examples, we exited direct store delivery, DSD, of our bagged Hispanic products in our Americas consumer segment and a private label food service line in EMEA. From a segment lens, both the consumer and flavor solution segments delivered strong sales growth in each region. In the consumer segment, we continued to have strong price realization, and we drove a sequential improvement in volume performance. In flavor solutions, our exceptional performance continued with our ninth consecutive quarter of constant currency double-digit sales growth. Our sales performance demonstrates the strength of our broad global portfolio and positions us well for continued top-line growth for the balance of the year.
I'd like to share a few highlights about our gross margin performance, which Mike will cover in more detail in a few moments. We drove significant gross margin improvement, reflecting the continued recovery of the cost inflation our pricing lagged last year, cost savings from our CCI and GOE programs, and the impact of strategic decisions we've made to optimize our portfolio with a focus on driving margin improvement as we continue to prune low-margin business.
Our gross margin expansion in the quarter was partially offset by higher SG&A as we build back incentive compensation as planned. Our adjusted operating income increased by 35% versus the second quarter of last year, or in constant currency, 36%. This growth drove an adjusted EPS increase of 25%, which also reflected higher interest and effective tax rate. We remain confident that we have the right plans in place and are taking the right actions. We are halfway through the year. Our year-to-date results speak for themselves. We expect to continue driving profitable growth for the balance of the year. Demand is strong. We're driving improvements in our margin profile and optimizing our cost structure effectively. I want to thank McCormick employees worldwide for their collective powers driving our success.
I'm proud of the tremendous job the McCormick team has done navigating the dynamic environment over the last few years. I'd like to recognize their energy and excitement for the business, which is coming through in our results. I'd like to ask Brendan to share the second quarter business updates for our segments.
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
Thank you, Lawrence. Starting with our consumer segment on Slide 8, our underlying performance was strong, reflecting our price realization and continuing positive momentum in our consumption trends. We continue to see sequential improvement. For some highlights by region, starting with the Americas. Our total U.S. branded portfolio consumption, as indicated by our IRI consumption data and combined with unmeasured channels, grew 7%. The difference between our sales and consumption was attributable to the retail sell-through of discontinued items and listing fees for an increase in the new distribution and products.
For example, our new Cholula and Stubb's items and Tabitha Brown line extensions. As anticipated, our alignment between consumption and shipments is normalizing. As usual, we expect some business fluctuations from period to period. In spices and seasonings, both consumption dollars and units accelerated sequentially from the last several quarters, with unit strength in core products such as straight-fill spices and vanilla, as well as our seasoning blends, which provide consumers both convenience and flavor exploration. Launch-to-date results of our Lawry's Everyday Spice range continue to be positive. We are seeing incremental sales and profit to the category. Like the first quarter, over half of the purchases are from new buyers to McCormick and overall incremental to the category. We also continue to see consumers trade up from private label. As our proprietary research indicates, consumers still prefer brands, even when under economic pressure.
Our excitement and distribution for this product line continues to build. The renovation of our U.S. core everyday spice and herb portfolio is rolling out according to plan and is a seamless transition for our retail partners as it fits into existing shelf spots. At the end of the second quarter, we had about 30% of our SKUs on shelf. We will continue to roll out the product over the course of the year, and our significant brand marketing campaign will be ramping up at the end of the third quarter. Our larger size Super Deal herbs and spices continue to benefit the category and McCormick, with 11% consumption growth in the second quarter as consumers continue to cook more at home. Super Deal's purchase cycle is similar to that of smaller sizes, even though they are 3 times the volume, and household penetration remains greater than pre-COVID.
We kicked off the grilling season at the end of the second quarter. Early results are good. Frank's RedHot and Cholula Hot Sauces, French's Mustard, Lawry's Marinades, and McCormick Mayonesa all delivered double-digit growth in the second quarter, with Stubb's Barbecue Sauce, as well as Grill Mates Seasoning Blends and recipe mixes following close with high single-digit growth. We are expecting our new grilling products and strong promotions to heat up share performance. We've launched three new Grill Mates on-trend flavors, including Smash Burger and Garlic Butter, as well as Griller's Choice Marinades, which you can use as three different flavors. All have had strong retailer acceptance.
We are really excited about our Stubb's Real Smoke Rubs, which capture real, authentic, hardwood smoked flavor, and Stubb's Jalapeño & Honey Bar-B-Q Sauce, which combines two trending flavor profiles, and the nuance of heat and flavor that our Frank's Smoke & Sweet Barbecue Wing Sauce offers. We are fired up for the grilling season and expect the launch of our Fire Up brand marketing campaign in the third quarter to fire up consumer demand as well. Our expansion into the fast-growing Mexican aisle with Cholula Taco recipe mixes and salsas based on authentic Mexican formulas, is off to a great start following our Cinco de Mayo execution. During the third quarter, we are increasing our Cholula brand marketing investments to support our expanded portfolio.
Our third quarter brand marketing will also include increasing our investments for our McCormick Gourmet product line with our Further for Flavor campaign, highlighting our commitment to sustainability from farm to table. With our supply issues of this product line resolved, we are excited to be able to support this premium product offering for the first time in two years. Importantly, as we enter the second half of the year, it is historically our most significant period. Finally, in the Americas, we continue to drive double-digit consumption growth in e-commerce, led by spices and seasonings. We are realizing high returns on our investments, gaining new customers, and growing with new products, such as our new Frank's Dill Pickle hot sauce on our direct to consumer platform, which sold out in less than a week. We will start to expand distribution in stores late this year.
In EMEA, our second quarter was our strongest quarterly sales performance in two years. Our effective pricing accelerated to contribute double-digit growth. Our volume performance improved sequentially. In fact, we grew volume in the UK and Eastern Europe. Consumption data continues to indicate the consumer is holding up well in our categories. Our share performance is solid. We are growing herbs, spices, and seasonings share in Eastern Europe and in Italy. Our growth plans in France are also yielding results with improved share performance. We are excited about celebrating the sixtieth anniversary of our Ducros brand this year. We are scaling up our grilling activation in France and partnering with key retailers to celebrate the brand's anniversary and to spark another reason to celebrate around the grill.
In the UK, we have also kicked off the grilling season and are building out our support in the discount channel, featuring our Schwartz Grill Mates products. In both France and the UK, we will be increasing our third quarter brand marketing investments to support grilling, as well as new products, and to continue to emphasize our value messaging. Across the region, we are making meaningful progress in the fast-growing discount channel, expanding distribution and gaining share. We are gaining share of the UK hot sauce category. We continue to drive strong Frank's RedHot performance and are accelerating our Cholula growth, with new distribution and e-commerce multi-packs contributing significantly to our hot sauce growth. Our investments in brand marketing, merchandising, and new products are proving to be effective and are driving growth in EMEA.
In the Asia Pacific region, growth for the quarter reflected lapping the COVID-related disruptions in China. While our business is recovering and our second quarter growth was robust, it was lower than our expectations, as the pace of reopening is proving to be more gradual, and consumer spending was pressured by broad-based economic pressures in the region. We remain optimistic for a more normal operating environment emerging as the year progresses and we enter into 2024, driving sustainable growth as we execute on our strategies. Outside of China, new products and brand marketing initiatives drove double-digit growth in other markets, with strength in branded spices and seasonings and Frank's RedHot. Wrapping up the consumer update, we are fueling our growth with the power of our brands and increased innovation and brand marketing.
The supply issues we experienced last year are resolved, and we are using our strength in category management to increase distribution and drive McCormick and category growth. Our year-to-date results bolster our confidence that we will continue to drive sales growth as we have in the past, before, during, and after the pandemic. We believe the execution of our growth plans will be a win for consumers, customers, our categories, and McCormick, differentiating us even more and strengthening our leadership in core categories. Now turning to flavor solutions on Slide 10. We are continuing our outstanding sales growth momentum in this segment. As Lawrence already mentioned, the second quarter was our ninth consecutive quarter with double-digit constant currency sales growth. We have previously shared our commitment to restoring profitability in this segment, and the second quarter is marking an inflection point toward our objective to continuing to build our margin.
Our growth was led by pricing actions in all three regions. We are priced to cover current year inflation and are continuing to recover the cost inflation our pricing lagged for the last 2 years. Recovery in the second quarter was even greater than the first. Now for regional highlights. Our Americas' second quarter strong sales growth was led by our flavors product category. Within flavors, seasonings growth was strong, including volume growth related to new products, which is outpacing last year's new product contribution, as well as our strength in our customers' iconic products. We are winning in seasonings with our heat platform. Flavors for performance nutrition beverages and health end market applications also contributed to our strong performance as we continue driving double-digit sales growth. We are winning with new products for existing and new customers.
In branded food service, we continue to gain share in hot sauce, mustard, spices, and seasonings, with strength this quarter in Grill Mates and Lawry's. Our grilling portfolio is firing up in branded food service, just like in our consumer segment. Moving to EMEA, we continue to drive broad-based growth across the portfolio, led by higher sales to our quick service restaurant customers in the second quarter. Overall, our price realization accelerated again from last quarter. Notably, we grew sales constant currency 15% in the quarter, despite an impact from pruning low-margin business, as Lawrence mentioned earlier, and softness in some of our QSR and packaged food and beverage customers' volume within their own business. In APZ, we also experienced recovery in China and are encouraged about the return to normal, as growth was also driven by strong performance of our quick-service restaurant customers' promotions.
Outside of China, we delivered double-digit growth with effective price realization, as well as solid volume growth driven by demand from QSRs. The strength of our flavor solutions portfolio and capabilities, including our differentiated customer engagement and culinary-inspired innovation, are driving our expanding flavor solutions momentum. The power of McCormick and FONA together continues to create exciting growth opportunities in a technically insulated and value-added part of our portfolio, especially with our recent wins in health and nutrition. In branded food service, we expect new products, increased menu penetration, and culinary partnerships to drive continued growth. Our robust plans in flavor solutions bolster our confidence in continuing our growth trajectory and driving our flavor solutions leadership. I'd like to turn it over to Mike to provide details on our financial performance.
Mike Smith (Executive VP and CFO)
Thanks, Brendan. Good morning, everyone. Starting on slide 12, our top line constant currency sales grew 10% compared to the second quarter of last year, reflecting 11% from pricing, partially offset with a 1% volume and mix decline. As Lawrence already mentioned, there were impacts to volume related to the China recovery, the Kitchen Basics divestiture, the exit of our consumer business in Russia, and strategic decisions we made related to optimizing the profitability of our portfolio. At the total company level, all these impacts netted out. In our consumer segment, constant currency sales increased 7%, reflecting a 9% increase from pricing actions, partially offset by a 2% volume decline.
Including in this volume decline are: a net 1% increase from the recovery in China, partially offset by the Kitchen Basics divestiture and our business exit in Russia, a 1% decline from exiting DSD, or direct store delivery, business for our Hispanic bagged products in the Americas. On slide 13, consumer sales in the Americas increased 4% in constant currency, with an 8% increase in pricing actions, partially offset by a 1% volume decline from the Kitchen Basics divestiture, a 2% volume decline from the Hispanic product DSD exit, and 1% underlying volume and mix decline. Our strong underlying sales growth was driven by the products in our grilling portfolio Brendan mentioned earlier.
In EMEA, constant currency consumer sales increased 9%, with a 12% increase from pricing actions, partially offset by a 2% volume decline from exiting Russia and a 1% underlying volume and mix decline. Excluding Russia, sales growth was broad-based across all categories and markets. Constant currency consumer sales in the Asia Pacific region increased 28%, driven by a 20% volume increase from China recovery and a 6% increase from pricing actions across the entire region, as well as 2% increase in all other volume and product mix. Turning to our flavor solutions segment on slide 16, we grew second quarter constant currency sales 13%, reflecting a 14% increase from pricing actions, partially offset by a 1% volume decline.
Included in this volume decline are a net 1% increase from the recovery in China, offset by a 1% decline from discontinuing a private label food service product line in EMEA. In the Americas, flavor solutions constant currency sales rose 11%. Pricing actions contributed to higher sales across the customer base. Volume and product mix declined in the quarter as strong volume growth in seasonings was more than fully offset by the impact of pruning of low-margin business. In EMEA, constant currency sales increased 15%, with pricing actions partially offset by lower volume and product mix, including a 2% impact from discontinuing the private label product line I mentioned earlier. EMEA's flavor solutions outstanding growth was driven by pricing and was broad-based across its portfolio, led by higher sales to QSR customers.
Volume and mix, outside of the product discontinuation, declined due to softness in some of our customers' volume within their own businesses, mainly packaged food and beverage customers, as well as QSRs. In the Asia Pacific region, flavor solutions sales grew 22% in constant currency, with a 13% volume benefit in China due to lapping the prior year COVID-related disruption, an 8% increase from pricing actions, and a 1% increase in all other volume and mix driven by Australia. As seen on slide 20, gross profit margin expanded 310 basis points in the second quarter versus the year ago period, reflecting our unwavering focus on increasing profit realization.
Favorable drivers in the quarter were our CCI and GOE programs, the continued recovery of the cost inflation our pricing lagged over the last two years, as we planned, and favorable product mix in both segments. We offset current year inflation in the second quarter with our pricing. Notably, in flavor solutions, while we continue to incur some level of higher cost to meet high demand in certain parts of our business, we continue to make progress on reducing the level of these costs. As we expected, the second quarter's dual running costs we experienced in the UK were comparable to last year. We are very pleased with our growth margin expansion for the quarter and expect to continue to drive margin improvement in the balance of the year. Moving to slide 21.
Selling, general, and administrative expenses, or SG&A, increased relative to the second quarter of last year, as higher employee incentive compensation expenses and distribution costs were partially offset by CCI-led and GOE savings. Brand marketing increased compared to the second quarter of last year. We are expecting an even more significant year-over-year increase in the third quarter. As a percentage of net sales, SG&A increased 20 basis points. Strong sales growth and growth margin expansion, partially offset by higher SG&A costs, resulted in a constant currency increase in adjusted operating income of 36% compared to the second quarter of 2022. In constant currency, the consumer segment's adjusted operating income increased 24%, and the flavor solutions segment grew 66%. Turning to interest expense and income taxes on slide 22.
Our interest expense increased significantly over the second quarter of 2022, driven by the higher interest rate environment. Our second quarter adjusted effective tax rate was 22.3%, compared to 18.6% in the year ago period. Both periods were favorably impacted by discrete tax items, with a more significant impact last year. At the bottom line, as shown on slide 23, second quarter 2023 adjusted earnings per share was $0.60, as compared to $0.48 for the year ago period. The increase was driven by higher adjusted operating income, partially offset by higher interest expense and a higher effective tax rate. On slide 24, we've summarized highlights for cash flow and the quarter end balance sheet. Our cash flow from operations year to date was strong.
$394 million in 2023, compared to $154 million for the first half of 2022. The increase was primarily driven by higher net income and working capital improvements, including lower inventory, as well as lower incentive compensation payments. We returned $209 million of cash to our shareholders through dividends and used $119 million for capital expenditures through the second quarter. We expect 2023 to be a year of strong cash flow, driven by our profit and working capital initiatives. Our priority is to continue to have a balanced use of cash, funding investments to drive growth, returning a significant portion to our shareholders through dividends, and paying down debt. We remain committed to a strong investment grade rating. We have a history of strong cash generation and profit realization.
Now, turning to our updated 2023 financial outlook on slide 25. Our 2023 outlook reflects our continued positive top line growth momentum, and with the optimization of our cost structure, increased profit realization. We expect to drive margin expansion with strong sales and adjusted operating income growth that reflects the health of our underlying business performance, as well as the net favorable impact from several discrete drivers. We expect our adjusted operating profit growth will be partially offset below operating profit by higher interest expense and a higher projected effective tax rate. We also expect there will be a minimal impact from currency rates, although there will be a timing aspect as we realize an unfavorable impact in the first half of the year and project a favorable impact in the second half.
For fiscal 2023, we are reaffirming our sales outlook, and as Lawrence mentioned, we are raising adjusted operating income and adjusted earnings per share, driven by our strong year-to-date performance, combined with the robust demand we continue to expect and our diligent approach to optimizing our cost structure. At the top line, we continue to expect 5%-7% growth, driven primarily by the wrap of last year's pricing actions, combined with new pricing actions we have taken in 2023. We expect several factors to impact our volume and product mix over the course of the year, including price elasticity, consistent with 2022 at lower levels than we have historically experienced, but in line with the current environment.
A 1% estimated benefit from lapping last year's impact of COVID-related disruptions in China, although we expect the impact will vary from quarter to quarter, given 2022's level of demand volatility. The divestiture of our Kitchen Basics business in August of last year, and the exit of our consumer business in Russia during last year's second quarter. Finally, the continual pruning of lower margin business from our portfolio. We estimate the America's consumer segment DSD exit and the EMEA Flavor Solutions private label discontinuation to be approximately a 1% impact on the year, which began to impact us in the second quarter. As always, we plan to drive growth through the strength of our brands, as well as our category management, brand marketing, new products, and customer engagement plans.
Our 2023 gross margin is projected to range between 50 to 100 basis points higher than 2022, compared to our prior guidance of 25 to 75 basis points. This gross margin expansion reflects a favorable impact from pricing, cost savings from our CCI-led and GOE programs, and portfolio optimization, partially offset by the anticipated impact of a low to mid-teens increase in cost inflation. We expect cost pressures to be more than offset by pricing during the year as we recover the cost inflation, our pricing lagged for the last two years. Moving to adjusted operating income, first, let me walk through some discrete items and their expected impact to our 2023 adjusted operating profit growth. First, the cost savings from our GOE program are expected to have an 800 basis point impact.
The savings from this program are expected to scale up as the year progresses. The benefit of lapping the impact of COVID-related disruptions in China is expected to have a 300 basis point favorable impact. The Kitchen Basics divestiture is expected to have an unfavorable 100 basis point impact. Finally, an 800 basis point unfavorable impact is expected as we build back incentive compensation. The net impact of these discrete items is a favorable 200 basis points. This favorable impact, combined with expected 8%-10% underlying business growth, which is driven by our improved operating momentum, results in our adjusted operating income projection of 10%-12%, compared to our previous guidance of 9%-11%.
In addition to the adjusted gross margin impacts I just mentioned, this projection also includes a low single-digit increase in brand marketing investments and our CCI-led cost savings target of approximately $85 million. We continue to anticipate a meaningful step up in interest expense, driven by the higher interest rate environment, which will impact our floating debt. We estimate that our interest expense will range from $200 million-$210 million in 2023, spread evenly throughout the year. As a reminder, in 2022, we realized an $18 million favorable impact from optimizing our debt portfolio, which we will lap in the third quarter of 2023. The net impact of these interest-related items is expected to be an approximately 800 basis point headwind to our 2023 adjusted earnings per share growth.
Our 2023 adjusted effective income tax rate is projected to be approximately 22%, based upon our estimated mix of earnings by geography, as well as factoring in a level of discrete impacts. Versus our 2022 adjusted effective tax rate, we expect this outlook to be a 100 basis point headwind to our 2023 earnings growth. To summarize, our 2023 adjusted earnings per share expectations reflect strong underlying business growth of 10%-12% and a 2% net favorable impact from the discrete items I just mentioned impacting profit. The GOE program, the China recovery, the Kitchen Basics divestiture, and the employee benefit cost rebuild, partially offset by the combined interest and tax headwind of 9%.
This results in an expected increase of 3%-5%, or a projected guidance range for adjusted earnings per share in 2023 of $2.60-$2.65. Before turning it back to Brendan, I would like to recap the key takeaways as seen on slide 27. Our second quarter sales growth reflects sustained demand across our business and the effective execution of our strategies. Our pricing actions are in place, and our volume performance improved. We drove meaningful year-over-year margin expansion in both segments, underscoring our focus on profit realization. Our cost savings programs are yielding results in line with our expectations. Our year-to-date results, combined with continued robust demand expectations and our actions to optimize our cost structure, bolster our confidence in delivering the strong operating performance projected in our enhanced 2023 outlook.
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
Thank you, Mike. Before we turn it over to Q&A, I would like to provide some additional comments. First, I would like to say I am truly honored and excited about the opportunity to lead this great company with its rich and very promising future. Global demand for flavor remains the foundation of our sales growth, and we have intentionally focused on great, fast-growing categories. Our alignment with long-term consumer trends, healthy and flavorful cooking, increased digital engagement, trusted brands, and purpose-minded practices continues to create a tailwind for growth. McCormick is uniquely positioned to capitalize on this demand for great flavor. With the breadth and reach of our strong global flavor portfolio, we are delivering flavor experiences for every meal occasion. We are the global leader in flavor from end to end for our consumers and our customers.
As we look ahead to the back half of the year, we will continue to focus on capitalizing on strong demand, optimizing our cost structure, and positioning McCormick to deliver sustainable growth and long-term shareholder value. We have compelling growth plans in place, including building momentum with our new products and heat platform, and are delivering on our commitment to increasing our profit realization. We are confident with successful execution of our plans and concrete actions, we will realize the profitable growth reflected in our updated 2023 financial outlook. The strength of our business model, the value of our products and capabilities, and execution of our proven strategies further bolsters our confidence in our growth trajectory in both segments, particularly as the environment begins to normalize.
Remaining relentless with our focus on growth, performance, and people, combined with the compounding impact of our continued growth investments and alignment with consumer trends, underscores McCormick's position to deliver long-term differentiated growth. Our fundamentals remain strong. We expect to continue to not only deliver strong sales growth, but also drive total shareholder return at an industry-leading pace. Importantly, I'd like to personally thank Lawrence for his mentorship and continued service to McCormick. On behalf of shareholders and employees, I want to recognize his outstanding leadership as CEO of this great company. Lawrence has been a transformational leader for McCormick, bringing our global flavor platform to life through his entrepreneurial spirit, innovative thinking, and growth-oriented vision for the company. During his time as CEO, we have grown sales over 50% and market capitalization more than doubled, creating significant shareholder value.
We have prioritized investing to drive future growth, increased our profit realization, improved cash flow from operations, and have returned more than $2.5 billion to shareholders. Lawrence is widely credited with embedding purpose-led performance into McCormick's culture by championing the company's industry-leading sustainability efforts, driving a period of tremendous growth, performance, and expansion, including acquisitions of iconic brands like Frank's RedHot, French's, Cholula, as well as FONA, and successfully leading McCormick through the unprecedented global pandemic. This is an enviable track record. Congratulations, and we look forward to your continued support as executive chairman. For your questions.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. At this time, we'll be conducting a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press Star two if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. Our first question comes from the line of Andrew Lazar with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Andrew Lazar (Managing Director)
Great, thanks very much. First, just wanted to congratulate, both of you, Lawrence and Brendan, on last evening's announcement. I know McCormick puts a tremendous amount of effort into succession planning, and I'm sure this transition will go every bit as smoothly as previous ones.
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
Thank you, Andrew. That's very kind of you to say that.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
Andrew, thank you very much for that as well. You know, I'm glad you mentioned that McCormick does this very well. McCormick prides ourselves on leadership development and succession planning, and the board and I have been very thoughtful and deliberate in this multiyear process to get us to this point. Over the last few years, I've had a chance to partner with Brendan on many of our key initiatives, and his disciplined approach to delivering growth, believing that the qualities you've come to expect from McCormick, make him an ideal CEO for this company going forward.
With his appointment to President last year, we were signaling this, and we have given all of you on this call and off this call, an opportunity to get to know Brendan and see his qualities firsthand.
Andrew Lazar (Managing Director)
Good stuff. Good stuff. I've got just two questions. First one would be, McCormick essentially, you know, flowed through the second quarter EPS upside to the full year, but also did not flow through any of the more significant upside in 1Q to the year. I'm trying to get a sense whether this is simply some conservatism or, you know, is there something in the back half of the year that's changed, that requires either the need from our marketing or it's really just McCormick being sort of opportunistic on the increased marketing in 3Q?
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
Well, I'll say that, first of all, we are confident in our outlook, you know, for the back half of the year. There's a lot that's exciting within the business, and we're pleased with our execution so far this year. The biggest part of the year still is in front of us. Third and fourth quarter are our 2 largest quarters of the year. While we're optimistic, we also want to be prudent about what is still in front of us. You know, there's some puts and takes in the business. Overall, our recovery in China has been a bit slower than we expected, and we have factored that into our guidance. Whereas for the most part, everything else is moving in the right direction, and we're quite positive.
We're not trying to signal anything. We did want to reflect the fact that we have had strong performance year to date in the increase in our guidance, and to reflect, you know, reflecting that strong performance. We also didn't want to get ahead of our, get over the tips of our skis.
Andrew Lazar (Managing Director)
Second, as we think about the back half of the year and McCormick starting to lap some of the pricing, would your expectation still be that volume would turn positive? If so, what would be the key drivers that give you the sort of the visibility to that?
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
I'm gonna say a few words about that, and I'm gonna let Brendan pick it up. You know, as we have been saying all along, we expect our volume performance to improve as we go through the year and to be stronger in the second half versus the first half, and that outlook has not changed. You know, given that we have, you know, slightly softer volumes in China, in our outlook, you know, we're You know, we have a little bit less contribution from that part of the business. You know, in the second half, overall, as a company, you know, we're expecting volumes to be very close to flat.
You know, call it ±1%, and maybe we're talking about numbers that are really, yeah, not meaningful and well within the range of forecast error.
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
Just to build on that from a regional perspective, Andrew, in the Americas, yes, we're performing, you know, pretty much as planned. I do think you have to look at, you know, sort of volume and price together, you know, when you take a look at the profile. We're showing sequential improvement across the portfolio, and that's been, you know, fairly consistent sort of month-to-month and quarter-to-quarter so far. We also need to recognize that in the second quarter, our result, it does include kind of the exit of this DSD business, which, you know, when you take that out, I think it kind of underscores Lawrence's kind of broader view of, you know, what we think is gonna, you know, kind of unfold in the back half.
It is, you know, broadly an improvement versus the first. China, we think we're gonna have a strong recovery. Also, we're pretty confident in that, although it's kind of a more gradual recovery than what we initially had planned for. That's probably a little bit different than what we had been thinking about, previously. Nevertheless, it is still a strong recovery. I would say in EMEA, we're pretty pleased with the performance on volume. I mean, when you factor out, you know, the elements of, you know, Russia exit or, you know, overall, the underlying volume and mix, when you exclude that, was really actually pretty nice. We're pleased to see that we have some volume growth, despite those things, in the EMEA region.
You know, onto the whole idea of this, just to provide more color on this DSD exit, you know, I would say that, you know, this is a business that, you know, we've been trying to kind of improve over time. What we see from it is that this is the DSD portion that we delivered to store. We also have a warehouse and distribution delivery, you know, that we would handle. You know, that was a business that just simply it wasn't profitable, and we decided we need to exit, but it was a meaningful chunk, I think, out of the second quarter, about 2 points.
You know, as we transition away from that business, it'll probably be a, you know, an impact for the rest of the year, but something that we had planned for.
Andrew Lazar (Managing Director)
Thanks so much, and congratulations again.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
Thanks, Andrew.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ken Goldman with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.
Ken Goldman (Equity Research Analyst)
Hi, thank you, and please accept my sincere congratulations as well, Lawrence, Brendan, and Kasey, too. Everyone's moving up in the world. It's great to see. I think I'm contractually obligated after yesterday to ask how you're feeling about, I guess, your customers' inventory levels in general, and if you're sensing, you know, maybe any risk of a retail safety stock deload or anything similar as your supply chain, you know, continues to normalize and get back to where it was.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
Brendan, why don't you take that one?
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
Yeah, you know, Ken, thanks for the question. We're not experiencing anything, you know, unusual or significant in trade inventory destocking. Honestly, there's really not much drama in the quarter for us on this. The difference between our sales and consumption was more attributable to just the retail sell-through of the discontinued items. You know, the point I just made regarding, you know, DSD as an example of that. Also, we have higher listing fees this quarter, just due to the fact that we're launching more new products. I think you see that in a lot of our dialogue in terms of, you know, Cholula or, you know, Grill Mates items for grilling or the Tabitha Brown line. We definitely had that.
As we anticipated, our alignment between consumption and shipment is normalizing. There's not really anything unusual going on in this quarter.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
I'll underscore that our service levels have been pretty solid for quite a while now. You know, retailers have had plenty of time to adjust their stock levels and so on. It just actually seems like something that, you know, over the past year and a half has already occurred for us.
Ken Goldman (Equity Research Analyst)
Got it. Thank you. Just as a quick follow-up, I wanted to ask a little bit about the commentary about Europe and in the consumer side. You know, maybe some of the softness you're seeing with your Or sorry, the flavor solution side. Just, you know, how you're seeing that progress as we go into the current quarter. Is it still worsening? Just trying to get a sense for how some of your, you know, larger customers, whether it be food, beverage, or QSR, are performing as the year progresses.
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
Hey, Ken, on the flavor solution side of our business in EMEA, it definitely, it's been softer than what we would have expected, I think, mostly because we're just seeing a slowing of consumer demand from our customers. That would be both sort of food and beverage and, but I would say it's most coming through the quick serve restaurant customer channel. We think it's really more of a reflection of what we see happening and what's being reported, I think, in terms of, you know, overall inflationary impact in EMEA, specifically Europe.
Definitely, as we kind of noted in the remarks, leading into the call here, that is something that, you know, is probably more affecting our overall volume rate in the EMEA region.
Mike Smith (Executive VP and CFO)
I think, too, just to add a little color on the volume there, about a third of that decrease in volume is due to the exit of that private label-
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
Right.
Mike Smith (Executive VP and CFO)
food service line. Again, another portfolio optimization.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
That was actually contemplated in our plans from the beginning of the year. Maybe for customer relations reasons, we couldn't be specific about that, but there, that is not a surprise to us.
Ken Goldman (Equity Research Analyst)
Great. Thanks so much.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from line of Peter Galbo with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
Peter Galbo (Director and Head of US Consumer Staples Equity Research)
Hey, guys. Good morning. Congratulations, again to Brendan and to Lawrence.
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
Thank you.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
Thanks, Peter.
Peter Galbo (Director and Head of US Consumer Staples Equity Research)
Guys, thank you for the commentary, I guess, on the exit of DSD. I think it's helpful, particularly in the context of some questions we've been getting this morning around the consumer business. Appreciate that. I guess maybe what I wanted to pick up on in Americas Consumer specifically, is some of your comments around grilling. You know, you do obviously have pretty easy compares from last year, just given where kind of protein prices were. Curious, just kind of what you saw coming out of, you know, Memorial Day, what you're expecting over the course of the summer. Obviously, you have some specific things that you're working on, but anything, you know, you can help with us there?
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
Thanks for the question, Peter. We're off to a really good start on grilling for this summer season, and we definitely, you know, saw that as a good start in Q2. A lot of it's really driven by just, you know, if you think about, we have a solid innovation plan, I think, for the grilling season. We're launching some new grilling items. Plus, we're also in just really much healthier supply on mustard and Frank's RedHot. And, you know, these are areas in Lawry's marinades where, you know, if we look at, you know, last year and before that, you know, certainly we're coming out on top of now a period of where we just have really full supply, assured supply for our customers, and we're turning back on, you know, normal promotional activity on the business.
we feel like all of those things put together, innovation, supply, getting back to the way you'd want to run a season on grilling, we have a really good start to the year. As, as we look at it, kind of, you know, from a share standpoint, really thought we performed quite well, you know, kicking off in the second quarter. All, all those things come together, I think, for a great start to the summer season.
Peter Galbo (Director and Head of US Consumer Staples Equity Research)
Great. No, that's helpful. Maybe just a question for Mike around kind of the gross margin guidance, just, you know, where you've covered in the first half of the year, kind of what it implies about the back half. Maybe there's some conservatism in there, but I did notice you kind of didn't change the inflation guide. Maybe just help us kind of think about that over the balance of the year.
Mike Smith (Executive VP and CFO)
Yeah, I mean, for the year,
Peter, as you know, we did raise our guidance on gross margin, 25-75 basis points to 50-100. We reflected, you know, some of the, you know, increased pricing realization we talked about on the call. We're really doing well in our GOE program and realizing those savings and those ramp up in the second half. The thing about the second quarter, that, you know, 300 basis point improvement, second quarter last year was our worst performance of the year. You'll see improvements in the back half in basis points versus last year, but they won't be as big as the 300 we had in the second quarter.
Peter Galbo (Director and Head of US Consumer Staples Equity Research)
Got it. Mike.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
Peter-
Peter Galbo (Director and Head of US Consumer Staples Equity Research)
Sorry, go ahead.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
Sorry. Go ahead. Let us finish this line of thought.
Peter Galbo (Director and Head of US Consumer Staples Equity Research)
Sure. Yeah, Mike, maybe though, you know, understanding maybe not the same magnitude of year-over-year change, but sequentially, you know, margins tend to still improve in the back half of the year. Just curious kind of how you're thinking about that.
Mike Smith (Executive VP and CFO)
I mean, based on the mix of our business, generally, the back half does have higher margins, especially the fourth quarter. you know, our client guidance, you know, has a high of almost 90 basis points improvement, low is 0. You get a little squeeze factor there. If you continue to have success, and again, we'll see that ramp up in the second half. you know, China is gonna have a really strong recovery in Q4. That's a positive for us. You know, they have they have scale over there and they have good margins.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
I mean, we're quite optimistic with continued gross margin improvements and operating profit margin improvement as we go through the year and going forward.
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
I think it's more that everything's moving in the right direction.
Peter Galbo (Director and Head of US Consumer Staples Equity Research)
Got it. No.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
Peter, you know, I'm not sure that we, you know, I, we, I know that you've got some interest in the Mojave DSD exit. I just wanna just spend a second with you and elaborate on that. You know, this is a range of very, you know, there are a lot of units, but they're very low value. You know, we're these are cello bag spices and dried peppers in cello bags that largely moves through unscanned channels. And we've had a DSD business in that we've banged our head against for a long time, that we've chosen as part of optimizing our portfolio, improving, you know, the profit performance to exit that part of the business.
We still sell those same brands through the warehouse to major customers, where because of the difference in the distribution channel, the margins are attractive and the business is worth staying in. The DSD portion of it was just not a money maker. It's a lot of units, but not a lot of value.
Peter Galbo (Director and Head of US Consumer Staples Equity Research)
Got it. Very helpful. Thank you, guys.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Alexia Howard with Bernstein. Please proceed with your question.
Alexia Howard (Senior Analyst)
Good morning, everyone. Congratulations all around. Thank you so much for everything to all of you. Okay, first question. Regaining lost distribution in U.S. retail channels, it seems to me that there were a number of smaller retailers that ended up losing distribution at during those supply chain disruptions. As you start to rebuild that distribution, what innings are we in? Are you able to quantify how much of a tailwind that could be over the next year to 18 months?
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
Well, Alexia, thank you for the question on TDPs and overall distribution. First of all, I'd like to say we continue to make really good progress year to date. And with, you know, as we look at our performance and our, you know, trends and all the different metrics we might look at, we're happy to see that come through as a positive, especially in the second quarter. We do expect to see continued progress as we go into the back half.
We have some significant improvements that we know will start to come online just because as customers reset their shelves and those things start to happen, a lot of the wins that we get through category management and all of that, you know, really important effort we put forth in terms of how we help the retailer guide the category, we know that there's gonna be some helpful improvements coming through on that as we go through the back half. We're looking to kind of quantify all that as we think about that into the back half of 2023 and all the way into 2024. you know, this is an effort, as we've said before, that we're gonna continue to be working on, you know, over the course of not only this year, but also next year.
As we look at overall distribution, know that we're not gonna get all of that back in terms of raw points, because almost half of that was discontinuations originally. We feel really good about our progress right now on overall distribution points, and it should continue to improve as we go through 2023 and also in 2024.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
Alexia, as I said on our last quarterly call, you know, we have a tremendous amount of innovation and on top of that, the restoration of our US Everyday Spice line, starting to hit the market in Q2 and building through the 2nd half of the year. You know, all of those hands on the shelves give us opportunities to get a more advantageous set and to get a greater amount of distribution on the shelf. We have a number of major customer wins that we talked about in the 1st quarter that are actually going on shelf in Q3, which should further build on TDP. We're pretty confident we're gonna continue to see improvement in this area as we go through the year.
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
With our brand marketing, we're gonna be mid-single-digit increase in the second half. A lot of that's gonna go into the third quarter, really to support those plans.
Alexia Howard (Senior Analyst)
Great. As a follow-up, can you just give us an overview of the one-time costs that are gonna be eliminated by 2024? I seem to remember you have, you know, 2 plants running in the UK as you transition there. There's co-manufacturing costs here in the US. Just a sort of idea of how much more there is to come out that's one time from recent events.
Mike Smith (Executive VP and CFO)
Okay, let me think about that. You're referring to, we have dual running costs in our EMEA region due to, you know, our new large facility over there. I'm pretty sure I said in the last call, we're around $20 million for this year, which is about the same as last year. We're still gonna have some costs next year because it's gonna go into the first and second quarter, the transition, because these are large manufacturing facilities. You know, if I were winging it, I'd say half of that's gonna go away, but I'm gonna be off, depending on the exact timing.
Max Gumport (Director of Equity Research)
Great.
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
Of course, our GOE program continues next year.
Mike Smith (Executive VP and CFO)
Yeah, we'll see, again, a nice wrap into 2024 from that.
Max Gumport (Director of Equity Research)
Great. Thank you very much. I'll pass it on.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
Steve Powers (Equity Research Analyst)
Great, good morning, and congratulations to everyone as well from me. A few questions, hey, great. Two questions, both related to flavor solutions. The first one, in part, is a follow-up to the topic that Ken Goldman had raised, just around inventory dynamics. We've heard, you know, various discussions of potential customer destocking from a flavor solutions perspective as well, from different pockets of the industry. I was just curious to see if that's at all impacting you or if you expect it to impact the business over the second half of the year.
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
Steve, thanks for the question. You know, as it relates to our flavor solutions business, when we look at overall our volume mix profile on it, and taking into account, you know, sort of the exit discussions that we've already had and other impacts, we think our volume profile right now, you know, reflects kind of the categories that we choose to really focus in on, like performance nutrition and seasonings, you know, and health and nutrition. You know, these are areas that we still see a lot of healthy growth in, and those have been intentionally kind of a key area of growth and focus for us.
I don't know that we're, and we won't be able to comment specifically on, you know, any particular customer activity, but, we believe our volume profile kind of reflects more of that, you know, composition of our business, and I'm not sure that we're seeing any broad restocking, you know, discussions that we have with customers at this point in time.
Steve Powers (Equity Research Analyst)
I'll also add.
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
Okay.
Steve Powers (Equity Research Analyst)
We've had a lot of customer wins and believe we're gaining share in this space, and so that is a positive contributor for us as well.
Mike Smith (Executive VP and CFO)
Yeah, a lot of our growth in flavor solutions comes from innovation, too, and those are the things that really drive volume and margin in flavor solutions.
Steve Powers (Equity Research Analyst)
Okay, great. Great, and then my second question, actually, good segue, is on the margin front. Just 'cause you continue to trend, you know, well ahead of at least, our expectations year to date, on flavor solution, margin recovery. I guess as you think about that forward, maybe I was wondering if you could just frame for us, you know, how much or whether you expect further progress, on that front in the second half. Then, you know, any updates as to how the progress you are making, here year to date, you know, influences how you think about that build back to pre-pandemic levels or higher as you look out over the longer time, longer term.
Mike Smith (Executive VP and CFO)
Yeah, I mean, I'd say, one, we're very pleased with our margin progress. As we said on the call, a lot of, everything's moving in the right direction, the GOE program, portfolio optimization, things like that are helping both the consumer and flavor solution side. Like I said, in the last call, we pre-pandemic, you know, we were, you know, our flavor solutions margins were a little over 14%. We don't look at that as a ceiling, however, we know longer term with portfolio migration, we think we will go higher. Short-term wise, you know, we have, you know, strong belief we'll get back to 14%. It's not gonna be this year, but we're gonna see sequential improvement.
You know, quarter to quarter, there'll be lumpiness based on, you know, run cost and, you know, dual running costs, things like that. But we had a really good second quarter. It was an easy comp compared to Q2 of last year, but, yeah, we're pretty bullish on flavor solutions recovery.
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
I will just add to that, just if I can step it up to the total company level. It is hard not to be excited about the 200 basis point expansion and operating margin that we had at this quarter. We're really moving in the right direction in both of our segments in a big way. You've all seen that we raised the OP guidance for the year as well as on the back of that margin improvement. We're very pleased and happy, no, very pleased with our progress in this area.
Steve Powers (Equity Research Analyst)
Great. Thanks for that, and congratulations again.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Max Gumport with BNP Paribas. Please proceed with your question.
Max Gumport (Director of Equity Research)
Hey, thanks for the question, and congrats, everyone. I want to return to the gross margin question with regard to the second half. It was nice to see the better-than-expected gross margin expansion in the quarter. You know, when I look at the updated guidance range, it would seem to imply that on a verse pre-pandemic basis, whether that means fiscal year 18 or fiscal year 19, that we actually see some reversion in your progress towards gross margin recovery. I'm trying to tie what's implied by that guidance range versus what we're hearing in terms of cost savings, ramping up, pricing, catching up to inflation, supply chain improving, all of which I would have thought could lead to gross margins continuing to move closer to pre-pandemic levels as we go through the year.
I do recognize, you know, 3Q and 4Q are big quarters for you, and there's probably some prudence embedded in this outlook, but just wanted to get some clarity on that point. Thank you.
Mike Smith (Executive VP and CFO)
Yeah, I mean, what you have to remember, Max Gumport, is, you know, when you're pricing to cover costs over a multiyear time, you're gonna have a large dilution impact just due to the math. And we said before, I mean, that has been a large headwind last year. I think we quantified in the 200-300 basis point range of the margin line. We haven't talked about it much this year, but we're still having some of that. We will get that back over time, as we said, through our CCI programs, more normal cost inflation in the future. So, you know, it's hard to compare to 4 years ago, gross margin at this point, but a lot of that is dilution. And, but we see an upward trajectory as we've seen in the second quarter. That's the important thing.
What makes me really excited is even with, you know, we're catching up on the pricing we've underrecovered the last 2 years. Even with that, you know, that is a negative dilution impact. Even with that, we're showing gross margin impact, a positive based on the GOE program or CCI programs. That's really gives us confidence going forward.
Max Gumport (Director of Equity Research)
Got it, understood. Turning to the recovery in your TDPs and U.S. spices and seasoning. It's been nice to see that in the scanner data that we all track, and it does seem to be approaching sort of flat year-over-year performance. We're not seeing the pickup in dollar share yet as significantly, and I would think there should be some natural lag because as you get the distribution points, maybe then you can start to advertise and bring back the brand building more fully, as you've flagged today. Is that the right way to think about it? Should we start to see a more full improvement in dollar share as we move through the year in terms of the trends?
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
Yeah, just like we've seen in our current trends, Max, you know, the sequential sales unit and volume improvement across the portfolio and even specifically within, you know, spices and extracts in the Americas. You know, we do think that that reflects kind of those long-term tailwinds of our categories, but also our growth plan. You know, we continue to invest in brand marketing, you know, really, you know, focused on category management and innovation, and that allows us to kind of, you know, focus on those volumes and that sustainable growth and, and also get that compounding effect of those investments. Yes, I do expect that profile to improve as we go through the back half.
It, you know, as you called out, you know, reasonably, with the improvement in TDPs, we should also then start to see an improvement overall as we think about dollar share. You know, that is a reasonable thing, I think, to look out for. What is driving our performance right now, and we think will, as we continue moving forward, is increased distribution, brand marketing, category management, innovation, and we also see a similar trend on this in Europe. These are areas that we continue to put a lot of focus up against, and I would say our outlook is as everyone has said so far this morning, I guess I'm gonna say it, too. Everything is moving in the right direction.
We feel that same way about our external performance off shelf.
Mike Smith (Executive VP and CFO)
I don't wanna miss that. You know, there are big, as Brendan noted, just I don't want anyone to miss it. We've got, you know, share gains in Europe. We've got share gains in, I don't know if you guys mentioned in Australia and Asia. And we have share gains in our other categories, you know, the spices and seasonings, and certainly is in the U.S., is certainly an important area of focus and justifiably so. We're confident that we're gonna get there. We're following the same playbook as we said at CAGNY, that we did for recipe mixes, and believe that we're gonna get to the same result.
Max Gumport (Director of Equity Research)
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Adam Samuelson (VP of Equity Research of Agribusiness and Packaging)
Yes, thank you. Good morning, everyone, and, let me add my, congratulations to Lawrence, Brendan, and the whole team.
Mike Smith (Executive VP and CFO)
Thank you.
Adam Samuelson (VP of Equity Research of Agribusiness and Packaging)
I guess just first, making sure there's a lot of ground being covered today. If you think about some of the cadence of earnings and margins, just the headwinds on a year-on-year basis from kinda, from incentive comp, how much of that has actually been realized in the first half, as we think about layering that into the back half of the year? Then again, maybe coming back to this question on gross margins, the sequential cadence, I mean, historically, second half gross margins would be higher than the first, particularly in the fourth quarter, given that's your biggest volume quarter.
The guidance doesn't seem to imply much gross margin improvement in the second half from where you were in the second quarter. I'm just trying to make sure that just mix between the different business units or just the conservatism. Is there something on price, cost, and mix in there that I that we're missing? Usually, there's a bigger step up, certainly in the fourth quarter. It doesn't seem to be implied, even at the high end of the guidance range.
Mike Smith (Executive VP and CFO)
Look, you know, like we said, last call on SG&A, I mean, on the Senate bill back, it's mostly in the second half. You know, if you remember back to the second quarter of last year,
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
... it was a really difficult quarter, as I mentioned before, we were obviously making adjustments to incentive comp there. Some of that did come through in Q2, but the majority of it is second half backloaded. You know, as far as gross margin, you know, I think I just had a very high level. We've talked a lot about gross margin on this call. You know, we're optimistic but prudent. I mean, we've got a lot of things that are, we're putting points on the board on the GOE program. You know, pricing, we did say pricing realization is gonna be highest in the first quarter, and the second quarter is gonna ramp down. That's a little bit of that, you know, as...
We're still having, you know, loaded, mid-teen cost inflation that we haven't moved on. That's coming down. You know, at the end of the day, from a, from a gross margin perspective, we're gonna show improvement, and, again, we're being prudent.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
I wanna be sure we're differentiating because your question did actually confuse me a little bit. You know, our gross margin and our underlying business is always higher in the third and fourth quarter. That's the, it's the mix of the business, and that's the natural state. I think you're asking, it sounds like you might be asking about that. We, you know, we're expecting that relationship to still hold, and we are expecting to continue to have improvement versus prior year in both of those quarters as well.
Adam Samuelson (VP of Equity Research of Agribusiness and Packaging)
Thank you, Lawrence. Certainly, it was versus the 37.1 in the second quarter. Appreciate that that gets you higher year-over-year versus where you were last year in the second half. I guess 100 basis points for the consolidated company, kind of you do the back-to-back into the second half margin, gross margin percentage, it doesn't really get you much above 37 for the second half of the year in total, and then quarters will mix a little bit. But usually, you would think that the gross margin percent would be higher by 4Q. That's the spirit of the question.
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
I mean, the gross margin change in the first half, we were favorable 113 basis points to last year. The second half guidance implies 40 to 50 basis point improvement at the midpoint. We're showing improvement. Remember that second quarter last year, you know, we had a really positive, you know, 300 some basis points increase in Q2. That's a bit of why it's over 100 basis points in the first half. You know, 50 basis point improvement, we're happy with that.
Adam Samuelson (VP of Equity Research of Agribusiness and Packaging)
Okay, I'll leave it there on that side. Thank you.
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
Yeah. Great, thanks.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Matthew Smith with Stifel. Please proceed with your question.
Matthew Smith (Managing Director)
Hi, good morning, and congratulations.
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
Thank you.
Matthew Smith (Managing Director)
Wanted to ask a follow-up question on the consumer business in the Americas, or more specifically in the U.S. We've seen elasticities improve in recent periods in measured channel data, and now you're ramping up new product activity and marketing, along with what sounds like some positive distribution tailwinds. How should we think about elasticity in the second half, with consideration to the commentary in your outlook, talking about elasticities overall in line with the prior year, which are a little softer than the trends we're currently seeing in the U.S.?
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
you know, I think, first of all, it's important to call out that our base case has been for the consumer to be under pressure in 2023, and we expect that to kind of continue. Although broadly speaking, the consumer has held up better than expected, yet there is still pressure out there. Having said that, though, as we look at our own price elasticities and performance off shelf, it remains pretty consistent with what we saw in the first quarter and in the fourth quarter, you know, most recently. We're not seeing a big deviation from where we've been. In fact, I would say, you know, we had a retail price increase come through in early April, and we still see very consistent trends with regard to price elasticity.
We don't see any examples right now, of it yet or planning to getting worse. Also, I'm not sure that we're indicating, so far that it's getting measurably better. These are consistent trends that we're planning on for the rest of the year because we are still on our base case of a pressured consumer.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
I would say, though, that, you know, there's a good, solid, sustained demand from the consumer. As you take that with the, I think, really robust and compelling growth plans that we've got in the second half, we've got good reason to believe that we're gonna continue to see volume improvement in our U.S. business specifically as we go through the year.
Matthew Smith (Managing Director)
Okay, thank you for that. If I could ask one more and a follow-up on the recovery you're seeing in China. It contributed to growth in the quarter, but you've talked about how it lagged your expectations and is progressing more slowly. Could you talk about the momentum in the business exiting the quarter? Did you see sequential improvement through the quarter? How does the current consumer environment compare to year-ago levels, which were more normal in the second quarter?
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
Well, I think in terms of, did we see any sequential improvement or any sequential changes as we went through the quarter? No, I, I would say that, largely as we, you know, observed kind of the performance of the quarter in China, the one thing that was obvious is, you know, they're dealing with, you know, higher unemployment, and consumer spending isn't as robust as maybe many and all of us were planning on, yet still being a strong rebound. We weren't seeing any sort of different performance throughout the quarter. I would say it was pretty much consistent, and, our view, once we saw the quarter open up, it sort of held that way, throughout the end of the second quarter.
I think your question, though, in the back half of your question, maybe you meant sort of how we're thinking about the third quarter. You know, recall last year, though, that was a big rebound period in recovery within China in the third quarter. We don't expect that same level of recovery in the third quarter this year, just because we're comparing up against that. We expect those same trends to kind of flow through into the third quarter. Then again, when we get to the fourth, it's gonna be different yet again. We're gonna be comparing against a very challenging period with respect to, you know, COVID lockdowns, et cetera. That is likely to feel more like the second quarter.
Kasey Jenkins (Chief Growth Officer)
Yeah. Maybe in summary, Q3 is a tough comparison on China because of the strong recovery last year. Q4 is an easier comparison because they were locked down in the fourth quarter last year.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
We just actually had our China management team here in the office a couple of days ago, and we spent quite a lot of time with them talking about the rollercoaster ride that they have been on, as the economy reopens, locks down, reopens, locks down, and reopens. That creates a lot of noise in the year-to-year comparison. We all had questions about how robust the recovery in China was gonna be. It's really strong. I don't want anyone on the call to think otherwise. You know, our question all along has been, you know, is the growth gonna start with a 2, a 3, or a 4? You know, right now it looks like a 3, not a 4.
Yeah, you know, we have actually tempered our, you know, not just captured it in our results to date, but we've also tempered our outlook a little bit for China. That's all. That is considered in our guidance on sale.
Matthew Smith (Managing Director)
Okay, thank you for that. I'll leave it there and pass it on.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, our final question comes from the line of Robert Moskow with TD Cowen. Please proceed with your question.
Robert Moskow (Managing Director)
Hi, thank you for getting me in. Lawrence and Brendan, congratulations to both of you, especially you, Lawrence. It's really been a pleasure working with you all these years.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
Thank you so much, Robert, and welcome back, by the way.
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
Congratulations to you.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
Congratulations to you.
Robert Moskow (Managing Director)
Well, I'm a little jealous of you, but, I gotta be honest. I wanted to follow up on Brendan, what your consumer research says about preferences, for brands versus private label. I think you said that consumers prefer brands. The market share data shows that private label is growing, and has been growing, you know, every year for the last couple of years, I think. I want to know if your data is showing the same thing in terms of market share, and, you know, how do you reconcile those two things together in the U.S.?
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
Well, I mean, I think we have to acknowledge that there has been some trade down to private label, especially more recently. But also it has moderated, especially, I think, in our own categories, as we see more pricing, you know, on shelf coming from private label. Those gaps narrow, therefore, you know, sort of the unit growth and trends sort of decelerate. We're seeing our own unit trends, you know, show sequential improvement. You know, going back to sort of the idea of research and what consumers are telling us and what we keep, you know, finding, and it keeps getting reinforced with consumer feedback, is they're looking for value, not necessarily the cheapest pack or smaller items.
Robert Moskow (Managing Director)
Mm-hmm.
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
We do see, you know, consistently, consumers do prefer brands. A lot of what we've been trying to do when we think about, just the mix between, you know, private label and brand, you know, recall, we're also in the private label business with our customers, so we see a role for private label in our categories. We are, you know, obviously supportive from a category management standpoint, that both provide, you know, a range of offerings, you know, for the consumer. Right now, we are pushing a lot on value. We're really focused on the growth of our larger sizes.
We're seeing consumers shift there more and more, as they look for that greater value, and it's definitely showing through in our trends, but it's not diluted to us or to the retailer. You know, we're not seeing as many signs of trade down right now as maybe we saw during sort of the height of this inflationary, you know, period that we've been going through. If I were to go back, though, so over several years, a little bit harder to comment on category by category, but, you know, we typically see this happen during, you know, inflationary or recessionary times with private label. You know, certainly seems to, you know, appears to gain share, but then again, we're not hitting, you know, sort of the highs that are different from what we've seen in previous periods.
That's our perspective on it, but we are, you know, certainly kind of have a foot in both parts of the category.
Robert Moskow (Managing Director)
Great. Thank you.
Brendan Foley (President and COO)
Thanks, Rob.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our question and answer session. I'll turn the floor back to Mr. Kurzius for any final comments.
Lawrence Kurzius (Chairman and CEO)
Thank you. Well, before we end, I'd like to let all of you in the analyst and investor community know I have appreciated the opportunity to tell you about McCormick, our great company, and for the insights and the perspective you've provided me, which helped shape our strategies and clarify our messaging. You have all really helped me be a better CEO. Whether you have a buy, a hold, or a sell on us, and whether or not you've even held our shares, our many interactions have been transparent, constructive, and always mutually respectful. I want to thank you all, and I'm confident McCormick is well positioned for continued success with our alignment to consumer trends, the breadth and reach of our portfolio, as well as our strategic growth investments. We have a strong foundation for sustainable growth and remain committed to driving long-term values for our shareholders.
Kasey Jenkins (Chief Growth Officer)
Thank you, Lawrence, and thank you to everyone for joining today's call. If you have any further questions, please feel free to contact me. As we enter the summer season, and for some of you in the U.S., have Fourth of July, in Canada, have late Canada Day, fire up those grills with the McCormick products. This concludes this morning's conference call.