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MARKETAXESS HOLDINGS INC (MKTX)·Q3 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Revenue rose 20% year over year to $206.7M, with EPS up 30% to $1.90; operating leverage improved as operating income grew 30% and EBITDA margin expanded to 50.8% .
  • Strong breadth: total credit ADV +27% YoY (U.S. high grade +36%), record portfolio trading ADV ($1.1B), record rates commission revenue (+35%), and record municipal market share (8.7%) .
  • Management accelerated “high‑touch” strategy with X‑Pro, launching targeted block trading and reporting several hundred bps portfolio trading share gains vs Q2; 74% of portfolio trading volume executed on X‑Pro in September .
  • Q4-to-date monthly metrics show continued robust volumes but a dip in U.S. HG market share in October amid lower portfolio trading and client shift to blocks; preliminary credit fee capture improved m/m .
  • Governance catalyst: Founder and Executive Chairman Rick McVey to retire from the Board at year-end; Carlos Hernandez appointed Chairman effective Jan 1, 2025—a notable leadership transition for investor sentiment .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “We delivered significantly improved financial results… 20% growth in revenue… 30% increase in diluted EPS” driven by strong market volumes and cost discipline .
  • Product breadth: record portfolio trading ADV ($1.1B) and record rates commission revenue (+35%); Open Trading share rose to 35% with ~$119M client price improvement .
  • X‑Pro rollout: “record 74% of our portfolio trading volume was executed on X‑Pro in September” and targeted block trading solutions launched to minimize market impact .

What Went Wrong

  • U.S. high‑yield market share fell to 13.0% (down 310 bps YoY) amid mix shifts and lower HY activity; Eurobonds ADV decreased 10% QoQ despite strong YoY .
  • Variable credit FPM declined to $148.97 from $154.85 YoY due to protocol/product mix (higher portfolio trading, lower HY) despite longer duration helping HG fee capture .
  • October update flagged lower U.S. high‑grade share (18.0%) vs September as portfolio trading declined and blocks rose, highlighting near-term share volatility even as volumes and fee capture improved .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2023Q2 2024Q3 2024
Revenues ($USD Millions)$172 $198 $207
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$67 $81 $87
Net Income ($USD Millions)$55 $65 $71
Diluted EPS ($)$1.46 $1.72 $1.90
Net Income Margin (%)31.9% 32.9% 34.6%
EBITDA ($USD Millions, non‑GAAP)$83 $99 $105
EBITDA Margin (%) (non‑GAAP)48.1% 50.0% 50.8%

Segment and revenue detail

Commission and Services Detail ($USD Thousands)Q3 2023Q2 2024Q3 2024
Total Commission Revenue$150,496 $171,679 $180,392
Variable Transaction Fees – Credit$109,065 $127,645 $134,863
Variable Transaction Fees – Rates$5,209 $5,719 $7,018
Other Commission (Pragma)$5,076 $4,856
Fixed Distribution Fees – Credit$36,167 $33,177 $33,584
Fixed Distribution Fees – Rates$55 $62 $71
Information Services Revenue$11,801 $12,544 $12,960
Post‑Trade Services Revenue$9,833 $10,400 $10,382
Technology Services Revenue$154 $3,037 $2,981

Trading volumes (ADV, $USD Millions)

ADVQ3 2023Q2 2024Q3 2024
Total ADV$29,285 $34,169 $40,516
Total Credit$11,156 $13,743 $14,116
U.S. High‑Grade$5,179 $6,436 $7,027
U.S. High‑Yield$1,294 $1,337 $1,278
Emerging Markets$2,799 $3,337 $3,333
Eurobonds$1,484 $2,103 $1,891
Municipals$388 $522 $577
Total Rates$18,129 $20,426 $26,400
U.S. Gov’t Bonds$17,713 $19,634 $25,302
Agency/Other Gov’t$416 $792 $1,098

KPIs (estimated market share)

KPIQ3 2023Q2 2024Q3 2024
U.S. High‑Grade Share20.0% 18.7% 19.5%
U.S. High‑Yield Share16.1% 13.5% 13.0%
HG/HY Combined19.1% 17.6% 18.1%
Municipals Share5.5% 7.4% 8.7%
U.S. Gov’t Bonds Share2.5% 2.3% 2.6%

Additional operational KPIs

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024
Open Trading Share of Credit34% 35%
Portfolio Trading ADV ($USD Billions)Record $55.0 (volume) Record $1.1 (ADV)
Automation Share of Total Credit Volume10% 11%
Automation Share of Total Credit Trade Count27% Record trade count; dealers’ algo responses +24% YoY

Note: EBITDA and EBITDA margin are non‑GAAP; see company’s reconciliation .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Operating ExpensesFY 2024$480M–$500M (tracking to low end) “More or less in line” with prior guidance, slightly below low end; variable costs rising offset by fixed timing shifts Maintained (with mix shift)
Quarterly Dividend per ShareQ4 2024$0.74 (Q3 declared) $0.74 payable Dec 4, 2024; record Nov 20, 2024 Maintained
Share Repurchase AuthorizationOngoing$250M authorized Aug 2024 $236.1M remaining as of Oct 31, 2024 Utilized (remaining updated)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ1 2024 (Prior Two Quarters: Q1)Q2 2024 (Q‑1)Q3 2024 (Current)Trend
X‑Pro rollout & high‑touch strategy (blocks, portfolio)Strategy focus on X‑Pro enhancements, portfolio trading growth; targeting large-sized trades Staged rollout across products; AI dealer selection tool introduced; global PT solution; interoperability focus Initial rollout to international base; several hundred bps PT share gains vs Q2; 74% PT volume on X‑Pro in Sept; targeted block trading launched Accelerating feature delivery; early share gains in PT; block solution in pilot
Portfolio trading competitivenessPT volume up 40.6% YoY Record PT volume; share gain targeted; benchmark trading features Candidly “not on par” yet; upgrades rolling out; expect crossover in Q1 2025 Improving but still catching up; roadmap into Q1 2025
Dealer services & ICE partnershipICE Bonds connectivity announced to bring retail micro-lot liquidity; complementary pools ICE muni and corporates live; strong feedback; expanded integration planned Building dealer/single-price auction (Mid‑X) & RFQ enhancements
S&P Global data partnershipStrategic fixed income data partnership combining CP+ with S&P evaluated pricing; go‑live end Q1/early Q2 Expands data footprint; boosts pre‑trade analytics
Emerging Markets (EM) strengthRecord EM commission/ADV; LATAM/APAC growth EM ADV +23%; local markets RFM up 45% EM ADV +19%; record blocks; Open Trading EM liquidity ~45% of taker liquidity; broad client diversification Sustained multi‑year growth; early electronification
Macro: velocity/new issueHG ADV +18%; HY new issuance +116.5% YoY Velocity trending up; improving macro backdrop Robust new issuance (HG +27%, HY +86% YTD); velocity above 80% with 91% Sept exit rate; rates volatility supporting record rates ADV Constructive macro tailwinds; volatility likely to pick up
Automation suiteRecord volume/trade count; dealer algo responses +50.2% 10% of credit volume; 27% of trade count; 10M dealer algo responses (+38%) 11% of credit volume; record trade count; 10M+ responses (+24%) Growing penetration and breadth

Management Commentary

  • “We delivered significantly improved financial results in the third quarter… We are looking to build on these gains… targeted block trading solutions… enhancing our dealer liquidity solutions… extending automation services” (CEO) .
  • “We delivered revenue of $207 million, up 20%… resulted in the first quarter of positive operating leverage since the fourth quarter of 2020, with incremental margins of approximately 60%” (CFO) .
  • “We have now launched the key elements of our targeted block trading capability to attack the highest value client order flow, representing 40% of the U.S. high‑grade market” (CEO) .
  • “Open Trading continues to be the largest single source of secondary liquidity in the U.S. credit markets” (Executive remarks) .
  • Leadership: “Rick McVey… will retire at the end of the year. Carlos Hernandez will succeed… as Chairman… effective January 1, 2025” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Block trading rollout and timing: initial launch with pilot clients; expect 2025 ramp with sequential enhancements; focus on minimizing information leakage via AI dealer selection and proprietary data (CP Inquiry) .
  • Fee per million (FPM) sensitivities: +~$15 per million HG for each +1 year increase in weighted average years to maturity; +$3–$5 per million for first 100 bps decline in yields; Q3 weighted average years to maturity around ~9 years vs ~8 in Q2 .
  • S&P Global partnership mechanics and benefits: CP+ powering evaluated pricing; MarketAxess receiving reference data; rollout targeted end Q1/early Q2 to strengthen pre‑trade analytics and ETF pricing linkages .
  • Dealer-to-dealer strategy: expanding RFQ with automation, “Work Up” protocol for size extension, and Mid‑X single price auctions—strong traction in Eurobonds; bringing to U.S. in 2025 .
  • Macro drivers of velocity: yields attractive, robust new issue calendar, higher turnover; volatility expected to help spread dispersion and economics; credit volatility yet to catch up with rates .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus estimates via S&P Global were unavailable in this session due to API limits; we attempted retrieval and could not obtain Q3 2024 EPS/revenue consensus for beat/miss comparison [functions.GetEstimates error].
  • Investors should note results showed double-digit YoY growth across revenue and EPS; however, without S&P Global consensus, we cannot quantify the beat/miss versus Street expectations here.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Positive operating leverage returned: incremental margins ~60%, with EBITDA margin expanding to 50.8%; breadth across products and regions reduces reliance on U.S. credit share .
  • Execution on X‑Pro high‑touch strategy is the core near-term narrative: early portfolio trading share gains and block trading launch target the ~40% TRACE block segment—key for reclaiming U.S. high‑grade share .
  • Mix dynamics still matter: portfolio trading and lower HY weigh on FPM, but longer duration and potential yield declines can lift HG fee capture per disclosed sensitivities; watch curve steepening and rate path .
  • EM franchise is a secular growth engine: record blocks, expanding protocols (RFM), and growing Open Trading liquidity; diversified client base (EMEA/APAC/LatAm) supports resilience .
  • Dealer services and connectivity are building optionality: ICE Bonds integration and Mid‑X expansion broaden liquidity access; potential treasury clearing developments with ICE warrant monitoring .
  • October KPIs caution: U.S. HG share dipped as blocks rose and PT fell; yet total ADV and fee capture improved—expect share volatility near-term but limited revenue impact per management .
  • Governance change is a notable catalyst: McVey’s retirement and Hernandez’s appointment may prompt investor reevaluation; continuity via International Board role and strategic focus retained .

Appendix: Additional Capital and Balance Sheet Highlights

  • Cash, cash equivalents, corporate bond and U.S. Treasury investments: $602.5M at Sep 30, 2024 (up from $558.8M at Jun 30, 2024); no credit facility borrowings .
  • Free cash flow: $86.3M in Q3; $214.8M YTD vs $165.0M YTD prior year (non‑GAAP reconciliation provided) .
  • Declared quarterly dividend: $0.74 per share payable Dec 4, 2024; record Nov 20, 2024 .

Citations: All quantitative and qualitative statements sourced from company 8‑K, press releases, and earnings call transcript as referenced above. Non‑GAAP items per company reconciliation . October monthly metrics per press release . Q2 and Q1 trend references per 8‑K press releases and Q2 call .