Executive Summary

Q3 2024 revenue was $1.889B and diluted EPS was $5.91; gross profit was $599M and adjusted EBITDA was $646M, all negatively impacted by extreme weather and the South Texas cement divestiture, though aggregates gross profit per ton reached a record $8.16 .
Full-year 2024 guidance was lowered: adjusted EBITDA to $2.015–$2.115B (midpoint $2.065B) and revenues to $6.450–$6.705B; aggregates ASP growth trimmed to 9–11% and volume to down 2.5–4.0%; capex raised to $850–$900M, driven by acquisition structuring .
Management highlighted October normalization and guided Q4 aggregates shipments up ~5% sequentially; backlogs and contractor hiring strengthened, supporting volume recovery into 2025 with prelim low-single-digit shipment growth and mid-to-high single-digit pricing increases .
Portfolio optimization continues: October bolt-on aggregates acquisitions in South Florida and Southern California (margin accretive), and Midlothian finished mill adds ~450k tons of high-margin capacity over time; these moves underpin 2025 setup and unit profitability expansion .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Record aggregates unit profitability: gross profit per ton rose to $8.16 (+3% YoY) despite lower shipments, showcasing “value over volume” discipline and pricing power .
Cash generation: record Q3 cash from operations of $601M (+32% YoY), aided by working capital improvements, supporting ongoing M&A and capital returns; Board raised the quarterly dividend 7% in September .
Strategic bolt-ons: October acquisitions in South Florida and Southern California are margin/unit accretive, >150MM tons of reserves in constrained markets, with price actions effective Jan 1, accelerating portfolio durability .

What Went Wrong

Weather headwinds materially reduced shipments and profitability (hurricanes Debby, Beryl, Helene, and broad precipitation); management lowered FY24 adjusted EBITDA guidance and trimmed aggregates ASP growth .
Downstream softness and divestiture impact: cement/ready-mix revenues fell 30% YoY to $296M and gross profit fell 37% to $89M, led by the South Texas divestiture and wet Texas weather; asphalt/paving also down on project delays .
Cost pressures: mid-single-digit cost inflation persisted; inventory drawdown added near-term COGS/ton pressure in H2, partly offset by moderating inflation and diesel tailwinds .

Financial Results

Key P&L by Quarter

Metric	Q1 2024	Q2 2024	Q3 2024
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$1.251	$1.764	$1.889
Gross Profit ($USD Billions)	$0.272	$0.517	$0.599
Earnings from Operations ($USD Billions)	$1.421 (includes $1.3B divestiture gain)	$0.398	$0.489
Diluted EPS ($USD)	$16.87 (includes nonrecurring gain)	$4.76	$5.91
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)	$0.291	$0.584	$0.646
Gross Margin (%)	22%	29%	32%

Note: Q1 EPS and operating income were elevated by a nonrecurring $1.3B gain on divestiture .

Q3 Year-over-Year

Metric	Q3 2023	Q3 2024
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$1.994	$1.889
Gross Profit ($USD Billions)	$0.676	$0.599
Earnings from Operations ($USD Billions)	$0.567	$0.489
Diluted EPS ($USD)	$6.94	$5.91
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)	$0.705	$0.646
Aggregates Shipments (MM tons)	55.9	53.7
Aggregates ASP ($/ton)	$19.98	$21.52
Aggregates Gross Profit per ton ($)	$7.89	$8.16

Product Line and Segment Breakdown (Q3 2024)

Category	Q3 2024 Revenues ($MM)	Q3 2024 Gross Profit ($MM)	Margin
Aggregates	$1,250	$438	35%
Cement & Ready Mixed	$296	$89	30%
Asphalt & Paving	$343	$61	18%
Magnesia Specialties	$82	$29	35%
Total Building Materials	$1,807	$588	33%
Total Company	$1,889	$599	32%

Segment	Revenues ($MM)	Earnings from Operations ($MM)
East Group	$849	$272
West Group	$958	$233
Magnesia Specialties	$82	$26
Total Reportable Segments	$1,889	$531
Corporate	—	$(42)
Consolidated	$1,889	$489

KPIs by Quarter

KPI	Q1 2024	Q2 2024	Q3 2024
Aggregates Shipments (MM tons)	36.6	53.0	53.7
Aggregates ASP ($/ton)	$22.26	$21.61	$21.52
Aggregates Gross Profit per ton ($)	$6.53	$7.41	$8.16
Cement Shipments (MM tons)	0.6	0.5	0.6
Ready Mixed Shipments (MM cubic yards)	1.2	1.2	1.3
Asphalt Shipments (MM tons)	0.5	2.5	3.6

Non-GAAP adjustments: Q2 included a $20M inventory fair-value markup headwind (≈$0.37/ton) tied to the Blue Water acquisition; Q1 included a $1.3B nonrecurring divestiture gain .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance (Aug 8, 2024)	Current Guidance (Oct 30, 2024)	Change
Consolidated Revenues ($MM)	FY 2024	$6,500–$6,940	$6,450–$6,705	Lowered
Adjusted EBITDA ($MM)	FY 2024	$2,100–$2,300	$2,015–$2,115	Lowered
Capital Expenditures ($MM)	FY 2024	$675–$725	$850–$900	Raised
Interest Expense, net ($MM)	FY 2024	$130–$140	$130–$140	Maintained
Estimated Tax Rate (%)	FY 2024	22.5%–23.5%	22.5%–23.5%	Maintained
Aggregates Volume (% YoY)	FY 2024	(4.0%)–(1.0%)	(4.0%)–(2.5%)	Lowered
Aggregates ASP (% YoY)	FY 2024	+11%–13%	+9%–11%	Lowered
Aggregates Gross Profit ($MM)	FY 2024	$1,510–$1,620	$1,410–$1,470	Lowered
Cement/Ready Mix/Asphalt Gross Profit ($MM)	FY 2024	$365–$420	$360–$385	Lowered (narrowed)
Magnesia Specialties Gross Profit ($MM)	FY 2024	$100–$110	$105–$110	Slightly Raised

Additional capital return: Board approved a 7% dividend increase paid in September; quarterly dividend declared at $0.79 per share announced Nov 7, 2024 .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 & Q2)	Current Period (Q3)	Trend
AI/Data Centers & Energy	Q1: Google KC data center (~800k tons) and central U.S. positioning; AI/data centers seen as multiyear driver . Q2: Continued AI demand, Amazon’s warehouse plans; heavy nonres resilience .	Q3: AI infrastructure cited across NC/SC/KC; energy demand to be “very aggregates intensive” .	Strengthening pipeline and geographic fit.
Weather & Supply Chain	Q1: Weather-challenged start; Q2: historic precipitation in Texas, Q3 expectation more Q4-weighted EBITDA .	Q3: Hurricanes and storms materially impacted shipments/mix; October normalization driving Q4 +5% aggregates guide .	From severe headwind to expected catch-up.
Pricing Strategy	Q1/Q2: “Value over volume”; ASP growth double digits; harmonizing acquired operations; midyears to affect 2025 more .	Q3: 2025 prelim mid-to-high single-digit pricing; acquisitions accretive; mix and weather lowered midyear realization in 2024 .	Durable pricing with moderated near-term carryover.
Regional Trends	Q2: DFW cement nearly sold-out exiting quarter; strong DOT budgets in TX/NC/GA/CO/AZ .	Q3: Southern CA, TX, FL highlighted as bright spots; NC Helene rebuild ($5–$6B NCDOT estimate) supports volumes .	Favorable positioning in fastest-growing states.
Tariffs/Macro	Q2: Inflation moderating; diesel tailwinds; election outcomes viewed as infrastructure-agnostic .	Q3: Cement tariffs would make DFW “even better”; bipartisan support for IIJA remains .	Macro supports construction; tariff sensitivity localized.

Management Commentary

“We achieved the best year-to-date safety incident rates… record quarterly aggregates gross profit per ton of $8.16, record third quarter cash flows from operations and record third quarter revenues and gross profit in our Magnesia Specialties business.” – Ward Nye .
“Our implied fourth quarter shipment guide reflects a 5% increase in shipments… disruptive weather delays shipments, not cancels them.” – Ward Nye .
“Aggregates pricing increased 7.7% or 8.9% on an organic mix-adjusted basis… highlighting the efficacy of our value over volume commercial strategy.” – Jim Nickolas .
“Construction of our new finished mill at Midlothian is complete… ~450,000 tons of incremental high-margin annual production capacity.” – Jim Nickolas .
“We acquired pure aggregate assets in South Florida and Southern California… both percentage margin and unit margin accretive… >150 million tons of reserves.” – Ward Nye .

Q&A Highlights

Weather impact and Q4 setup: “We literally had a hurricane every 2.5 weeks in Q3… October has been much more normal… anticipating aggregates to be up 5% in Q4” .
Acquisition integration and pricing uplift: Bolt-ons in South FL & SoCal are margin/unit accretive; price actions effective Jan 1; acquired ASP delta narrowed (from ~$5/ton to ~$3/ton) vs heritage .
2025 prelim outlook: shipments up low-single digits, pricing mid-to-high single digits; carryover from 2024 midyears ~80 bps; price/cost spread expected to expand .
Cost and capex: 2024 capex guide raised largely due to an acquisition structured as capex; underlying 2025 capex thought at ~9–9.5% of revenues .
Midlothian ramp and tariffs: new capacity will ramp methodically; DFW cement market would benefit from tariffs, though import logistics already limit exposure .

Estimates Context

Wall Street consensus estimates from S&P Global for Q3 2024 EPS and revenue were not available due to access constraints at the time of this analysis (tool limit error). As a result, formal beat/miss versus consensus cannot be assessed here. Given lowered FY24 guidance (adjusted EBITDA and ASP growth), sell-side models are likely to adjust down near term while 2025 unit profitability drivers (normal weather, bolt-ons, Midlothian capacity) support medium-term upward revisions .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Weather normalization and backlog strength underpin Q4 aggregates shipment recovery (+~5%), a potential near-term catalyst as deferred volumes flow .
Despite trimmed FY24 guidance, pricing discipline (mid-to-high single-digit prelim for 2025) and moderating cost inflation support continued price/cost spread expansion and unit margin gains .
Portfolio quality improved further with South FL/SoCal bolt-ons in reserve-constrained markets; margin/unit accretive assets and synchronized price actions should lift 2025 earnings power .
DFW cement remains structurally advantaged; finished mill adds ~450k tons; methodical ramp avoids price erosion, sustaining high-margin capacity over time .
Public infrastructure tailwinds (IIJA, strong state DOT budgets) plus AI/data centers and energy build-out create multiyear aggregates demand across MLM’s fastest-growing geographies .
Record operating cash flow and balance sheet flexibility (net debt/EBITDA ~2.0x TTM) enable continued M&A and shareholder returns, evidenced by dividend increase and opportunistic buybacks .
Near-term watch items: weather variability, warehouse/private softness, and the pace of acquired asset price harmonization; October trends and Q4 execution will shape sentiment into 2025 .

Additional References

Q3 2024 press release and 8-K: full financials and guidance .
Q3 2024 earnings call: detailed commentary on weather, pricing, acquisitions, capacity, and 2025 prelim view .
Prior quarters: Q2 2024 results and call (pricing gains, weather impact, guidance revisions) –; Q1 2024 results and call (divestiture gain, Blue Water deal, pricing) –.

MARTIN MARIETTA MATERIALS INC (MLM)·Q3 2024 Earnings Summary