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    MARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES (MMC)

    Q2 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jan 10, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$220.66Last close (Jul 17, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$217.88Open (Jul 18, 2024)
    Price Change
    $-2.78(-1.26%)
    • Consistent Strong Growth in Risk and Insurance Services (RIS): MMC reported 7% underlying growth in RIS during the quarter, marking the 14th consecutive quarter of 7% or higher underlying growth, representing the best stretch of growth in two decades.
    • Significant Margin Expansion and Earnings Growth: The company achieved an adjusted operating margin expansion of 130 basis points and adjusted EPS growth of 10% in the quarter. Management expects even better margin expansion in the second half of the year, indicating continued profitability improvements.
    • Positive Outlook and Supportive Market Conditions: MMC's management expresses confidence in the company's outlook, citing supportive market conditions such as rising costs of risk and healthcare, tight labor markets, and continued economic growth in major markets. The company anticipates mid-single-digit or better underlying revenue growth, margin expansion, and strong adjusted EPS growth for the full year.
    • Slowing growth at Oliver Wyman due to market uncertainties and pricing pressures from excess capacity as competitors reduce headcount, which may impact future performance.
    • Modest growth in Mercer's Career segment, attributed to lower wage inflation and reduced employee turnover, suggesting potential challenges in sustaining growth in this area.
    • Troubling signs of loss cost inflation in casualty lines, especially in the U.S., with large judgments and settlements posing challenges, which could affect the company's clients and business.
    1. Revenue Growth Outlook
      Q: Why not raise revenue growth guidance despite strong H1?
      A: Management is pleased with the 8% underlying revenue growth in the first half but is maintaining the mid-single-digit outlook. They cite solid performance across businesses like Marsh, Guy Carpenter, and Mercer, and note supportive macro conditions such as GDP growth, inflation, and labor markets. They feel positive about the outlook for the second half, emphasizing it's still a good market for them.

    2. Margin Expansion
      Q: Is greater margin expansion still expected in H2?
      A: Management confirms they expect better margin expansion in the second half compared to the first. They're happy with the 130 basis points improvement, validating earlier statements about facing headwinds in Q1. They're on track for solid margin expansion for the year.

    3. Capital Management and Share Buybacks
      Q: Will M&A activity decelerate share buybacks in H2?
      A: Management sees no change in their balanced approach to capital management. They have about $4.5 billion to deploy this year and favor attractive investments in the business over buybacks but won't let cash build up. They've increased dividends and repurchased $300 million in shares in Q2. They're pleased with M&A opportunities and will continue to be active.

    4. Oliver Wyman Growth Slowdown
      Q: What's causing the slowdown in Oliver Wyman's growth?
      A: The slowdown is partly due to tough comparisons from a strong prior year and some market uncertainty affecting discretionary spending. Year-to-date growth is around 8%, aligning with their mid- to high-single-digit growth expectations through the cycle. They're experiencing some pricing pressure due to excess capacity as competitors adjust headcount.

    5. Marsh Growth Outlook
      Q: How is Marsh performing in the U.S. and internationally?
      A: Marsh reported balanced growth, with International regions growing at 7% and U.S. and Canada at 6%. The U.S. business, especially MMA, performed well. Growth was driven by strong performances in construction, energy, and benefits, with renewal base and new business growth solid. They feel well-positioned and see opportunities ahead.

    6. Mercer Health vs. Career & Wealth
      Q: Why is Health growing strongly while Career & Wealth are slower?
      A: Health grew at 9% due to strong global demand for digital solutions and innovative benefits, driven by rising healthcare costs. Wealth grew at 3%, benefiting from project work and market conditions, though equity market impacts are muted. Career's growth was more modest at 2%, reflecting lower wage inflation and reduced employee turnover impacting demand for rewards projects. Overall, they remain positive about the outlook.

    7. Property Catastrophe Pricing Environment
      Q: What's the outlook on property cat pricing?
      A: The property catastrophe reinsurance market is more predictable this year. Placements are on time with adequate capacity. There's increased reinsurer appetite and strong ILS activity, with record cat bond issuance of about $8 billion in the quarter. While cat rates are moderating compared to 2023, premium spend is still up 1% year-over-year. They note caution due to significant insured losses in the first half.

    8. Fiduciary Investment Income
      Q: Is fiduciary investment income expected to grow from here?
      A: Seasonality affects balances, but the main driver will be the outlook for interest rates. With about $11.5 billion in fiduciary balances, future growth depends on central bank actions globally. Balances reflect the revenue mix across the world, so U.S. rates aren't the sole factor.

    9. Expense Savings Impact
      Q: How much did expense savings help margins in RIS?
      A: Management acknowledges the benefit of expense savings contributing to the 130 basis points of margin expansion but hasn't quantified the specific amount each quarter. They are on track with the level of savings previously discussed and are seeing the benefits.

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