MMC (MMC)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary
Marsh McLennan Beats Q4 Estimates as Consulting Hits Record; Shares Slip on Cautious Guidance
January 29, 2026 · by Fintool AI Agent
Marsh McLennan delivered a solid Q4 2025, beating both revenue and EPS estimates while achieving its 18th consecutive year of margin expansion. However, shares fell ~1.6% as management's 2026 outlook pointed to headwinds from softening insurance pricing and lower interest rates. The company also debuted its rebranded identity, now trading under ticker MRSH.
Did Marsh McLennan Beat Earnings?
Yes — Marsh beat on both revenue and EPS.
Revenue grew 9% year-over-year on a GAAP basis and 4% on an underlying basis. Adjusted operating income increased 12% to $1.6 billion, driving the margin expansion. GAAP EPS was $1.68, while adjusted EPS of $2.12 rose 10% YoY.
The full year delivered strong results: revenue grew 10% to $27 billion, adjusted operating income increased 11% to $7.3 billion, and free cash flow surged 25% to $5 billion.
Ask Fintool AI AgentHow Did the Segments Perform?
Risk & Insurance Services ($4.0B, +9% / +2% underlying)
Marsh Risk revenue was $3.7 billion, up 10% GAAP and 3% underlying. U.S. & Canada grew 3% on good new business and MMA momentum, while International grew 4% with EMEA leading at 6%. The quarter faced tough comparisons from elevated flood claims and 18-month policy renewals in Latin America.
Guy Carpenter generated $215 million in revenue, up 7% GAAP and 5% underlying — solid given softening reinsurance pricing. Management noted record new business in 2025 and strong momentum entering January renewals.
Consulting ($2.6B, +8% / +5% underlying)
Mercer revenue was $1.6 billion, up 9% GAAP and 4% underlying. Health grew 6% on international strength, Wealth rose 5% led by investments (AUM reached $692 billion, +12% YoY), and Career declined 2% on soft project work in the U.S.
Marsh Management Consulting (formerly Oliver Wyman) hit a milestone — its first billion-dollar quarter, with revenue up 8% on strong demand across most regions and sectors. Over five years, the business has grown 75%.
What Did Management Guide?
2026 outlook: Underlying revenue growth "similar to 2025" (~4%), continued margin expansion, and solid adjusted EPS growth. Capital deployment expected at approximately $5 billion across dividends, acquisitions, and share repurchases.
Key headwinds flagged:
- Lower interest rates impacting fiduciary income (Q1 expected at ~$83M vs $92M in Q4)
- Property insurance rates down 4% globally in Q4
- Reinsurance property cat pricing accelerating lower, with double-digit rate reductions at January renewals
Key growth drivers:
- Digital infrastructure ($3 trillion investment expected over 5 years)
- Casualty market opportunity (US excess casualty up 19%)
- Thrive program enabling investment in AI, talent, and market-facing technology
What Changed From Last Quarter?
The biggest change is the acceleration of reinsurance softening and the official launch of the unified Marsh brand. Management also introduced Business and Client Services (BCS), consolidating operations and technology under one leader to accelerate AI adoption.
Ask Fintool AI AgentHow Did the Stock React?
Shares opened at $185.21 on earnings day and fell to ~$182.70, down approximately 1.6% despite the beat. The stock is trading 26% below its 52-week high of $248 and near its 52-week low of $174.
The sell-off reflects investor concerns about:
- Pricing headwinds — Property insurance and reinsurance rates accelerating lower
- Interest rate impact — Fiduciary interest income declining
- No growth acceleration — 2026 guidance of ~4% underlying growth matches 2025
Marsh has beaten EPS estimates for 8+ consecutive quarters, but the stock has underperformed as the insurance brokerage sector faces multiple valuation compression.
Key Management Quotes
"We're in an era of polycrises. Ground wars, trade wars, culture wars, social unrest, AI disruption, and extreme weather are all creating enormous challenges for businesses. But there is also opportunity in the complexity." — John Doyle, CEO
"Data centers — this is the single biggest new business opportunity in 2026. We think up to $10 billion of new premium could enter the market." — Dean Klisura, CEO Guy Carpenter
"We just registered our first billion-dollar quarter. Five years ago, we were just a smidgen over $2 billion for the year. The pipeline is pretty good." — Nick Studer, CEO Marsh Management Consulting
What's the Bull vs Bear Case Now?
Forward Catalysts to Watch
- Q1 2026 earnings — First full quarter with new Marsh brand; reinsurance 1/1 renewal impact
- M&A pipeline — Management has $5B for deployment; high-quality targets still commanding premium multiples
- Thrive savings — $400M target savings, portion reinvested for growth
- Data center wins — Nimbus facility doubled capacity to $2.7 billion
- Casualty momentum — 19% rate increases flowing through reinsurance quota shares
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