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Manning & Napier and Callodine Group Discuss 2026 Capital Markets Outlook
MN
New Projects/Investments
Revenue Acceleration/Inflection
Demand Weakening
- The U.S. market in 2025 showed robust headline strength but was driven by narrow, AI-linked growth, leading to a wide valuation spread between expensive and inexpensive stocks and creating opportunities for active management.
- While AI's promise is considered real, there are concerns about over-investment and questionable business models, particularly regarding OpenAI's significant spending plans relative to its revenue. A potential crack in AI investment is identified as a risk, though with low odds, that could lead to economic/market contagion.
- International stocks are viewed as an attractive opportunity for 2026, with Manning & Napier being overweight due to significant undervaluation compared to U.S. equities (e.g., Europe trading 10 turns cheaper on P/E) and improving growth rates.
- Private credit experienced a strong year in 2025 with outstanding credit performance and modest defaults, continuing to gain market share from banks. Specialty finance areas like asset-based lending and life sciences lending are highlighted as attractive.
- The current market environment emphasizes the importance of diversification and active management, with opportunities in value-driven sectors such as energy, financials, and healthcare, given the U.S. market's concentration in AI.
Jan 13, 2026, 5:00 PM
Manning & Napier and Callodine Group Discuss 2026 Capital Markets Outlook
MN
Guidance Update
New Projects/Investments
Demand Weakening
- The 2026 Capital Markets Outlook webinar highlighted contradictions in 2025 markets, including a strong S&P 500 rally despite low consumer sentiment and persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target.
- The U.S. equity market in 2025 was "K-shaped" with AI-related stocks driving gains, leading to a narrow market and speculative investment behavior, while high-quality stocks historically underperformed.
- In fixed income, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in 2025, with expectations for continued cuts in 2026, though a deep cycle is unlikely without significant economic contraction. Long-end rates are expected to remain range-bound due to fiscal stimulus and large deficits.
- Private credit is identified as a disruptive force offering a lower-cost business model for borrowers, which is beneficial for the broader economy.
- A proposed 10% limit on credit card interest is viewed as a negative for banks but manageable, with a low likelihood of implementation due to potential credit restriction and recession risk.
Jan 13, 2026, 5:00 PM
Manning & Napier's 2026 Capital Markets Outlook
MN
New Projects/Investments
Demand Weakening
Guidance Update
- The U.S. market in 2025 was characterized by narrow, AI-driven growth, with AI-linked companies contributing significantly to S&P's profits and returns, creating contradictions like market highs amidst low consumer sentiment.
- While AI's promise is recognized, there are concerns about over-investment and questionable business models in some AI-related ventures, such as OpenAI's substantial spending relative to its revenue.
- For 2026, significant opportunities are identified for active investors in value-driven and cyclical sectors outside of AI, including pharmaceuticals, energy, financial, and healthcare, due to high valuation dispersion.
- Private credit experienced a strong 2025 with good returns and modest defaults, continuing to take market share, particularly in specialized forms like asset-based lending and life sciences.
- Key risks for 2026 include potential AI investment cracks leading to market contagion, exogenous geopolitical shocks, and a weakening labor market.
Jan 13, 2026, 5:00 PM
MN Discusses AI Investment Landscape, Value Chain, and Market Risks
MN
Debt Issuance
New Projects/Investments
- The AI investment landscape is characterized by a massive spend across the AI value chain, with data center spending split roughly 40% on infrastructure and 60% on components like chips.
- Funding for AI infrastructure is shifting from predominantly cash flow-funded by hyperscalers (e.g., Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta projected to spend $350 billion on CapEx this year) to more debt-fueled investment by Neo Clouds and AI model companies.
- Concerns are raised about potential overinvestment and a rapidly inflating investment bubble, as current AI application revenue of $15-20 billion significantly lags the hundreds of billions spent on infrastructure and chips, and trillions in future committed investment.
- Investment opportunities are seen in the semiconductor supply chain (e.g., TSM, Cadence Design, Amphenol), vertically integrated hyperscalers like Google, and potentially undervalued sectors such as enterprise software and IT services.
Oct 9, 2025, 4:00 PM
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