The Mosaic Company - Earnings Call - Q3 2025

Executive Summary

• Q3 2025 delivered strong results: net sales $3.45B, diluted EPS $1.29, adjusted EPS $1.04, and adjusted EBITDA $806M, with broad segment strength and notable items netting a $0.25 EPS tailwind.
• Versus Wall Street: adjusted EPS beat consensus ($1.04 vs $0.95*) and adjusted EBITDA outpaced consensus ($806M vs $769M*), while revenue was slightly below ($3.45B vs $3.53B*). Shipment timing and Brazil distribution margins were key drivers. Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
• Guidance mixed: full-year phosphate production cut to 6.3–6.5Mt (from 6.9–7.2Mt), potash trimmed to 9.1–9.4Mt (from 9.3–9.5Mt), Fertilizantes to 9.4–9.6Mt (from 10.0–10.8Mt), with Q4 price/volume ranges provided for DAP ($700–$730/t) and MOP ($270–$280/t).
• Strategic actions/updates: completed Patos de Minas ($111M proceeds) and Taquari mine sales ($27M; eliminates capex >$25M and $22M ARO), and reiterated capital reallocation plans; cash from operations was $229M in Q3, held back by working capital build that is expected to reverse in Q4.
• Call tone: confident on asset health recovery and potash demand; cautious on Q4 Fertilizantes EBITDA (~$100M) and potential North America phosphate deferral; management emphasized cost reductions and operational discipline into 2026.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Phosphates inflected: segment operating earnings improved to $102M (from $(8)M in Q2), with DAP realizations rising to $714/t and gross margin per tonne up to $92/t; production reached 1.7Mt in Q3 and ~1.8Mt on a trailing three-month basis.
• Potash strength: operating earnings rose to $229M and adjusted EBITDA to $329M, with MOP prices up to $271/t and cash costs down to $71/t on higher production and lower idle/turnaround expenses.
• Fertilizantes outperformance: adjusted EBITDA surged to $241M (vs $83M prior year), with operating income up 71% YoY to $96M; management highlighted disciplined risk management amid Brazil credit conditions.
  • Quote: “Our business in Brazil continued to perform well… and we delivered solid performance in our potash business” — Bruce Bodine, CEO.

What Went Wrong

• Working capital drag on FCF: cash from operations fell to $229M (vs $313M prior year) due to inventory builds (North America/Brazil end-products and phosphate rock), timing of shipments, and higher prices; free cash flow was $(135)M.
• Phosphate conversion costs elevated: cash cost of conversion rose to $131/t (vs $101/t prior year), reflecting asset health initiatives primarily in July; management expects sequential decline in Q4.
• Q4 Fertilizantes guidance soft: segment EBITDA guided to ~$100M on lower prices, compressed distribution margins (below $30–$40/t norm), seasonality, and credit constraints; distribution margin in Q3 was below normal.
  • Analyst concern: potential North America demand deferral impacting phosphate and potash application timing into Q1 2026.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning and welcome to The Mosaic Company's third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode. After the company completes their prepared remarks, the lines will be open to take your questions. Now I'll turn the call over to Jason Tremblay. Please go ahead.

Jason Tremblay (Head of Investor Relations)

Thank you, and welcome to our third quarter 2025 earnings call. Opening comments will be provided by Bruce Bodine, President and Chief Executive Officer. Jenny Wang, Executive Vice President Commercial, will then cover the market update. Luciano Siani-Perez, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will review financial results and capital allocation progress. We will then open the floor for questions. We will be making forward-looking statements during this conference call. The statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future financial and operating results. They are based on management's beliefs and expectations as of today's date and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from projected results. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are included in our press release published yesterday and our reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

We will also be presenting certain non-GAAP financial measures. Our press release and performance data also contain important information on these non-GAAP measures. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Bruce.

Bruce Bodine (President and CEO)

Good morning. Thank you for joining our call. Mosaic's third quarter results reflect the resilience and strength of our global business, as well as the extraordinary work our teams are delivering to help us operate effectively in a highly dynamic market and geopolitical environment. We've demonstrated the ability to shift tons to regions with the strongest demand and capture value across agricultural and industrial markets, and we're navigating near-term fertilizer affordability issues while looking ahead to positive structural market trends. We remain focused on achieving reliable and consistent production from our assets, leveraging our market access advantage, and executing our capital reallocation strategy, all in the service of creating shareholder value. Let me begin with our key messages for the quarter. First, we've made major investments in asset health, and we are seeing improving reliability. U.S.

Phosphate production has improved sequentially throughout the year, and we remain focused on driving consistent performance across our phosphate assets. Second, our business in Brazil continues to deliver excellent performance. Adjusted EBITDA increased year over year, and we are managing well despite a challenging credit environment. Third, global potash demand remains very strong, especially in the Eastern Hemisphere, and we are running near-record operating rates to meet that demand and capture value. Fourth, cost discipline remains a priority. We have achieved $150 million in initial cost savings and are on track to achieve our revised $250 million cost savings target by the end of 2026, driven by automation, supply chain optimization, and improved fixed cost absorption as production increases. Finally, we remain committed to disciplined capital allocation.

Recent investments, including the Taquari Potash Mine and the Patos de Minas asset, reflect our commitment to streamlining the portfolio and redeploying capital toward higher return opportunities. To cover our third quarter results. Net income for the third quarter increased to $411 million versus $122 million in the prior year, while adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter rose to $806 million from $448 million a year ago, driven by higher prices across all segments and very strong performance in Mosaic Fertilizantes. Let's look briefly at market dynamics. I'll leave the details to Jenny. Phosphate markets remain tight as global supply constraints persist. Key long-term drivers remain intact, including continued growth in LFP battery demand, rising domestic fertilizer demand in China, which is likely to further erode exports, and limited new capacity additions over the next few years.

Despite coming off recent highs, phosphate prices remain elevated, and affordability pressure remains a concern. We've seen growers in the U.S. and Brazil cautiously approach seasonal buying, which has moderated prices and impacted the timing of sales volumes. The challenging farm credit situation in Brazil continues to exacerbate this trend. In India, strong shipments in 2025 have largely recovered back closer to historical norms, but we still see a need for substantial replenishment after multiple years of tight supply and under-application. Potash markets are balanced, as good affordability drives demand around the world, particularly in China and Southeast Asia. Potash and phosphate demand should benefit from the strong yields U.S. and Brazilian farmers have generated this year. We expect big crops in North America and Brazil to remove an additional 1.5 million tons of potash and a similar amount of phosphate from the soil compared to last year.

Growers will need to replenish these nutrients to avoid lower yields next year. For Mosaic, the focus on U.S. phosphate asset health is allowing us to run more reliably and at increased rates. We have experienced three consecutive quarters of production volumes improvement. Volumes for the trailing three-month period ending October have reached approximately 1.8 million tons, which is further improved from the third quarter. We remain committed to return to previously achieved normalized production rates. Our focus now is on consistent and sustainable performance. In potash, we completed the Esterhazy turnaround in the second quarter, and the new Hydrofloat System is delivering incremental tons. The resilience of our Brazil business demonstrates our effective commercial strategy and disciplined risk management, including a focus on sales to customers with strong credit profiles.

Our team's deep local expertise and long-standing presence in Brazil have been instrumental in navigating market complexities and maintaining profitable growth. While we expect the usual seasonally slower fourth quarter, we expect earnings in this year's fourth quarter to be higher than a year ago. Cost initiatives are progressing across the company. Mosaic Fertilizantes continues to generate cost reductions, and selling, general, and administrative expenses declined year over year in the third quarter without the impact of the bad debt expense. We continue to leverage our market access, which is a key strategic advantage for Mosaic, to accelerate growth in Mosaic Biosciences. Revenues for the first nine months more than doubled year over year. We anticipate Mosaic Biosciences will contribute positively to consolidated adjusted EBITDA beginning in the fourth quarter.

In addition to strong growth in the Americas, the market for biologicals is growing quickly in China, and we expect India to follow. All in all, we are well positioned for a strong finish to 2025 and a promising 2026 and beyond. Now, I'll turn the call over to Jenny for more detail on agriculture and fertilizer markets.

Jenny Wang (EVP of Commercial)

Thank you, Bruce. We continue to navigate a very dynamic global agriculture environment. Commodity values and trade uncertainty have impacted near-term sentiment in North America, but the recent recovery of corn and soybean prices should encourage more fertilizer activity, particularly with China now looking to purchase U.S. soybeans and wheat. Any additional direct government help to farmers could provide further support to the market. In Brazil, growers have had to navigate tighter credit availability and higher interest rates but have benefited from expanded trade opportunities, particularly with China. Brazilian fertilizer demand is still growing this year and will likely expand again next year as growers replenish soils and expand acreage for upcoming seasons. Our customers remain engaged and are actively buying fertilizers for the upcoming Saffronia corn and the 2026 Safra soybean. Ag economics remain more constructive in other parts of the world, and Mosaic has pivoted to active markets.

Longer term, we continue to see ag fundamentals as supportive to fertilizer demand, driven by growing demand on food, feed, and fuel, which we have seen supportive biofuel legislation around the globe. Moving to the fertilizer market on phosphate, markets have been very constructive for March of 2025. Given robust demand for nutrients, which in turn has supported prices. Prices of phosphate have moderated from recent peaks but remain elevated, driven by tight global supply and strong demand. Stripping margins also remain above historical norms. Chinese export of DAP, MAP, and TSP are expected to decrease more than 1.5 million tons this year, and China has recently pulled back phosphate export approvals. Like Bruce mentioned, LFP battery demand has continued its growth. In the first three quarters, Chinese LFP production has already surpassed the full year production in 2024 and representing over 40% year-over-year growth.

While Chinese demand for fertilizer and industrial phosphate continues to grow, we see limited new capacity expansion in other regions over the medium term. In the case of potash, markets are balanced after a first-half supply deficit. Global demand has been steady and expected to approach another record as affordability has encouraged strong Chinese consumption, healthy Brazilian import, and growing Southeast Asian demand, which is tracking up to 50% higher input in some of the key countries. Given this persistent global appetite, we expect record CapEx shipments this year and further strains heading into 2026. North American potash demand has held relatively consistent this year on healthy affordability, and full application tons are moving to the ground as we speak. However, given potash is often applied with phosphate, we may see some modest fall deferral into Q1.

In summary, we are optimistic heading into 2026 as growers look to replenish soils and fulfill any pent-up demand. Long-term food security and industrial use continue to support a constructive outlook for phosphate markets, particularly absent any significant capacity additions. Potash markets are stable on balanced fundamentals, and we expect demand growth to reach a new record.

Luciano Siani Pires (EVP and CFO)

Thank you, Jenny. Let us take a deeper dive into our performance. You will remember that Q2 EBITDA came below expectations due to a number of larger-than-usual provisions, inventory adjustments, environmental reserves, legal reserves, and also due to a sharp increase in turnaround expenses. We said these effects were going to reverse in Q3, and they did. Q3 was more of a clean quarter, minimal one-time items, and a reversal of turnaround expenses from $144 million in Q2 to $85 million in Q3. You should expect idle and turnaround expenses to remain at normal levels in Q4. Despite being a clean quarter, Q3 EBITDA was impacted by lower sales volumes, which reflect a shortfall in phosphate production and an intentional slowdown of sales from 15 cents, given the credit challenges in Brazil. Let's address phosphates.

On the revenue side for Q4, we expect phosphate sales to be between 1.7-1.9 million tons, with risks to the downside due to demand referral. On the cost side, you saw the significant decline in idle and turnaround expenses from $84 million in Q2 to $42 million in Q3, as expected. We still had a lot of repair work, mostly in July, recorded into cash conversion costs, which were $131 per ton, which is about the same level of the $126 per ton in the second quarter. The next step is to have a meaningful decline of cash conversion costs in the fourth quarter, given that the asset health and repair work will be normalized and also due to our expectation of higher production and fixed cost absorption.

For phosphates in Q4, higher sales volumes, historically elevated stripping margins, and anticipated lower conversion costs should support results. In potash, cash production cost per ton of $71 was down from $75 from Q2 as production volume increased. We expect the fourth quarter unit cost to be similar to Q3 and finish the year at low to mid-70s. If you recall, we guided 2025 unit production costs in the $64-$69 range on Investor Day earlier this year. Since then, we kept operating on high cost colons demand for longer than expected, and the Canadian dollar has strengthened against the U.S. dollar. If we adjust the Investor Day targets to reflect the current exchange rate, our full year forecast would be on track to hit the targets. Potash continues to be a very stable business in terms of production volumes, costs, and capital intensity. Fifteen cents.

Our results were driven by two opposing forces. On one hand, strong underlying business performance, but on the other hand, a softening market in the near term. EBITDA came in at $241 million. Above the $200 million that we have guided, even after we strip out the $27 million recovery of the bad debt recorded in Q2. That performance was achieved despite distribution margins at about $20 per ton, which is, again, below our targeted $30-$40 range, as we had to make margin concessions. Because of the weakening market. The new level of EBITDA generation of $0.15 is a testament to the strong cost performance of the business in 2025, despite the strengthening of the Brazilian real. What to expect for Q4? We expect an important drop in EBITDA due to a number of factors. Lower prices.

Still compressed distribution margins, normal for the season, but still compressed. Higher raw materials costs, seasonally lower overall sales volumes, and product mix. These uncertainties in volumes, prices, and margins are very high in the quarter, so EBITDA could be in a wide range. In any scenario, we're still expected to be above the same quarter prior year, thanks to the sustained cost improvements. A few words on cash flows. Cash flow from operations was only $229 million for the third quarter because of over $400 million increase in working capital, driven by several factors. Higher physical inventories of end products in North America and Brazil due to the slowdown in sales at the end of the quarter. Higher prices for such inventories and for raw materials. The buildup of inventory of phosphate rock to support future production plans.

We expect these effects to partially reverse in Q4, supporting cash flows. Even with that reversal in Q4, if you look at the full year, and we have a slide in the deck for that, working capital will continue to post a large increase, and therefore, 2025 cash flows will be well below what is intrinsic to the business. In 2026, with raw materials prices stabilizing, phosphate rock inventories being consumed by higher production, and the adjustment in inventories in Brazil and North America, cash flow from operations and free cash flow is expected to improve significantly. Therefore, we are prudently deferring any extraordinary dividends or buybacks to 2026. Finally, a note on non-core asset sales and capital reallocation. You saw Mosaic announcing the completion of the Taquari transaction yesterday. We sold this potash mine in Brazil for $27 million.

The transaction is also expected to eliminate capital investments exceeding $20 million in the short term. We will avoid significant capital investments to extend the life of mine beyond 2030 in the medium term, and we will transfer asset retirement obligations of $22 million. So a lot of capital that's not going to be deployed anymore in this asset. Mosaic also announced the closing of the sale of Patos de Minas idle phosphate mine early October with proceeds of $111 million, with $51 million already received, the rest to be collected over four years. We have many assets under review and several strategic talks ongoing, and we expect 2026 to be a year when capital reallocation will gather steam.

In conclusion, we are highly confident in our ability to finish the year on a high note, and we encourage new shareholders to focus on the strong momentum we expect to enter in 2026. With that, operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator (participant)

We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press Star then 1 on your touch-tone phone. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press Star, then 2. Please limit yourself to one question. At this time, we'll pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question will come from Chris Parkinson with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Chris Parkinson (Analyst)

Thank you so much for taking my question. Just given, obviously, you've been on a pretty long-term fixing of the turnaround schedule across four primary facilities. Can we just get an update on, after the issues in late September, how you performed in October versus expectations, how you're thinking about initial November, and just what's your degree of confidence that you should be within that four-key production guide, and how we should think about the cadence of such, given the outlines that you projected at the CMD back in March, how we should be thinking about the confidence level as it relates to 2026? Thank you.

Bruce Bodine (President and CEO)

Hey, Chris. Thanks for your question. Good morning. First off, we're committed to achieving our normalized production rates that we've been talking about. We did have those issues that we had a press release out in September. Those are behind us. I think, as I've reflected on this, things are taking a little longer than anticipated. As you pointed out, we did get to our normalized turnaround schedule, which was the big issue for us, was to do that first. As we removed that macro asset health issue, it shined a light on some other issues, mostly that, for me, and this is my terminology, is that we kind of lost some muscle memory. I'll give you some examples. Since we haven't run at these rates for.

Five-ish years, we've kind of stumbled on just starting back up out of normal repair days, stumbled on making product shifts. Now that asset health on the big unit operations is not the issue anymore, it's really with high turnover in our workforce over the last five years. That institutional knowledge is a place that we've got to focus. The good news is that we're seeing full rates a lot of the time. In fact, at times, even over full rates. We just need to lock in on more consistency and then sustain that for longer periods of time. As I reflect, for me, on the past 18 months, to your point, we've made significant progress. Sulfuric acid plant turnarounds were accelerated to kind of eliminate that really macro asset health issue.

During that time, we advanced several improvement projects in phosphate acid granulation and, more importantly, some of our critical support facilities around water and electrical infrastructure. All in all, we've invested an additional $100 million in CapEx and an additional $100 million this year in maintenance expense that are above and beyond just kind of normal for these operational enhancements and asset health improvements. In addition to that, to leave no stone unturned, we have brought on board some external consultants to make sure that we are leveraging everything we can do to get back to those rates. As you pointed out, all the work has led to three consecutive quarters of sequential improvements. With those consistent gains, as we reported in the earnings presentation, the trailing three-month period ending in October is at that 1.8 million ton, which is the middle of our guidance range.

We are changing our guidance philosophy a little bit, and I think that's important, is that. We're going to base guidance on the forward quarter based on kind of how we have proven. In the past few months. And so that trailing three-month was critical for us to set kind of that guidance range of 17-19 phosphate because we're actually at that 18 rate right now. But looking ahead, we're going to continue to focus, Chris, on our processes and instilling operational discipline across the organization. We've got work ongoing and a lot of emphasis on strengthening our institutional knowledge at the front line. And then we've got a lot of work also on further leveraging technology across our ops and maintenance teams to put better data and decision-making at their fingertips. We are optimistic and very excited about what the future is bringing.

It's just a little unfortunate it's taking longer to get there. Where we are right now, we feel very comfortable and confident in achieving the guidance range that we've set forward.

Operator (participant)

The next question will come from Joel Jackson with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Joel Jackson (Analyst)

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. If I could follow up on your answer to Chris's question, can you maybe, Bruce, dive into what is the difference between a good day and a bad day? A good day says when you're at full rates or better. A bad day, you're not there. Is it a certain asset? Is it a certain thing going on? Can you elaborate potentially a good day and a bad day versus your targets?

Bruce Bodine (President and CEO)

Yeah. Thanks, Joel. A good day, bad day is very nuanced, as you can well imagine. It depends on the facility and the suite. Right now, bad days are not where something is catastrophically failing prematurely or that we're holding it together until we can get to a turnaround. Those are not the structural issues. Today, the difference between good and bad is, did we actually run without an upset? More from operational decision-making at the front line in phosphate acid, particularly, or granulation. Again, perfect example would be, hey, we have to switch from MAP to MicroEssentials product at, it does not matter what facility, facility X. The quality was not immediate at that startup as quickly as it should be. We lost product from that standpoint, or we had to actually shut down, kind of reseed a granulator, as an example.

It is more of those institutional operating practices that really, right now, are separating good from bad. It is not structural asset health. It is more on operational practice. Just delivering on that consistency. Every time we switch or start up from a repair day, which happened frequently within the month, that is just normal ops and maintenance practices, getting up to that full rate quickly at quality performance and then sustaining it until the next cycle for repair or product switch. Hopefully, that provides some color. It is no longer structural asset health as the big issue. It is more operational knowledge, institutional knowledge, and consistency of delivering on that day in and day out at these high rates.

Operator (participant)

The next question will come from Andrew Wong with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Andrew Wong (Analyst)

Hi. Good morning. Maybe can I just clarify on the expected phosphate run rate? Is that now 1.8 million tons, or is that just for the very near-term upcoming quarter? Then there's longer-term upside to that, more on a normalized basis as some of that institutional knowledge comes back and you're able to work in those processes. On phosphate margins, can you just help us think about all the different moving pieces as we kind of get into Q4 versus Q3? Obviously, there's a lot of changes on prices and input costs and asset health. As production goes up, that should also help with fixed costs per ton. Can you just help us understand that? Thank you.

Bruce Bodine (President and CEO)

Yeah. As I said, Andrew, our guidance philosophy has switched to more proven. At the end of the day, we're committed to get back to full rates. There's no question about that. There's no wavering on that. It's just rather than guide to the promise, we're going to guide to actually what's delivered. The upside is there as we achieve all those gaps that you just mentioned that we talked about in the last two questions as well. Yes, to your point on cost, fixed cost absorption is the biggest thing. We're not seeing any more unusual expenses in the script. Luciano talked about the higher costs of putting in these new gypsum handling systems at New Wales. Those things are behind us from an expense standpoint. Normalized turnaround costs, normalized maintenance costs.

Labor, and all those things being fixed with the higher cost of production as we go from what we've demonstrated now, 1.8 towards that 2 million tons, all are going to go to the bottom line, fixed cost absorption. Luciano, you got more to say?

Luciano Siani Pires (EVP and CFO)

Yeah. Andrew. We posted $131 per ton of conversion costs. If you look August and September, the number was actually a little under 120. The rule of thumb is for every 100,000 tons additional in the quarter, you should see about $7 per ton reduction. If we were to post 2 million tons in a single quarter, which is our long-term aspiration, that sub-120 would be somehow between 100 and 105, which is still kind of $5 above our investor day targets. We still have maybe $5 of extraordinary smaller repair work that we need to shave. That gives you kind of a ballpark thinking about how the cost should progress. In addition, I would like to call attention to the operational leverage in phosphates. Because most of the costs are fixed.

The marginal ton earns way more than the average ton, which means that, for example, if you were to increase production by 25%, for example, coming from 6.4 to an 8 million tons rate, theoretically, EBITDA could improve by more than 50%. The impact on cash flows would even be even more magnified. That is something to bear in mind, that the results of phosphates are very, very leveraged to volumes.

Operator (participant)

The next question will come from Lucas Beaumont with UBS. Please go ahead.

Lucas Beaumont (Analyst)

Thanks. Yeah. I just wanted to touch on the cash flow again. I mean, the operating cash flow to EBITDA conversion this year has been about 45%. Typically, your long-run range is in sort of the 80s. I just wanted to kind of, you talked about it improving next year, but just wanted to get your thoughts on where you think that conversion should go. Secondly, you guys have also sort of talked about trying to get CapEx down after fixing the production issues. I mean, this year is kind of tracking towards that $1.3 billion, which is pretty much in line with where it's been the past seven years. Just how much scope do you think there is to kind of help free cash flow into next year on that side as well? Thanks.

Bruce Bodine (President and CEO)

Yeah. Lucas, thanks. I'll just start and then turn over to Luciano. He's got a lot to say about this issue, particularly. Yeah, cash flow is a little weaker than we wanted or anticipated for the quarter, mostly because of the kind of slowdown in sales in the Americas, which caused a little bit of a build in inventory and then the higher pricing in inventory. Our buildup of rock inventory, particularly in North America for phosphates, anticipated higher production, kind of added some of that cash into inventory. That will revert as production starts to materialize and sales start to move into spring season. Feel good about that, and it'll improve on the cash conversion. Go ahead, Luciano. Maybe you want to talk about that.

Luciano Siani Pires (EVP and CFO)

Yeah. So Lucas, you're probably referring to an annual cash conversion rate. I understand you're referring to the conversion between EBITDA and operating cash flow, which, yes, this year should be end of year at around 50%. You referenced 45%, maybe a little more than that with the recovery in the fourth quarter. That's because inventories and working capital are kind of taking up about 20% of that EBITDA in the year. If you were to adjust for working capital/inventory changes, you would be at a level of around 70%, which we believe is kind of the industry norm. We see some competitors around that level as well. Which means that looking forward to 2026, we actually have an expectation of a wind down and a positive contribution of working capital. We may be in 2026 above the 70%, maybe, who knows, close to 80%.

That is before CapEx, as you pointed out. It happens that capital expenditures this year are also close to 50% of EBITDA. Your net cash conversion of 50% with CapEx running at 50%, you are basically at a free cash flow for 2025, which is very close to zero. Again, in 2026, with an improvement in EBITDA with higher volumes and the cash conversion going more above 70% towards 80%, it is possible that you are going to have a free cash flow to conversion rate of 25%-30%. That is the situation in the short term. Over the long term, we see already a positive trend in reduction of ARO and legal environmental reserves. This is one line that we have been spending around $400 million this year, and we expect next year to be the first of a long-term trend of decline.

This is a tailwind to cash flows. In terms of CapEx, we have this long-term view of reducing capital expenditures. We're exactly now in our budgeting process. We're seeing what is going to be the rate for next year. We will inform you appropriately once we make our decisions. The good remark would be asset retirement obligations, environmental reserves, all the reclamation work is already showing declines in cash outflows.

Operator (participant)

The next question will come from Matthew Dio with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Matt DeYoe (Analyst)

Thanks. Sorry. Hold on. If I'm just looking at org rates at the mine site, particularly in Florida, and the degradation, is it realistic to hit 2 million tons per quarter for phosphate? I say that because I'd assume with higher throughput it means you're probably driving up asset wear. You're probably burning out pumps more quickly, and that probably plays into just uptime in general. Can you manage these issues? Is that already been handled, and that's really not the issue anymore? Is that a non-factor? How does that just in general play into this?

Bruce Bodine (President and CEO)

Yeah. Thanks, Matthew. The chemistry of the ore is not really a concern for us. Yes, on the margins, you're right. Where that played out this year was particularly at New Wales when we needed to upgrade the gypsum handling system. Excuse me. Because we did have more waste generated per ton of feed and had not tested those systems in the last, say, five, six years at these higher rates. P2O5 quality, the chemistry of the ore, definitely not a concern about hitting those rates. It does limit catch-up capacity, so it forces us to be that much more precise on operating discipline, to your point. From a rock quality standpoint, it is more the geology that drives some of the issues on cost for mined rock, particularly in Florida.

Those things come down to stripping ratio, how much overburden do you have to remove, what's your pumping distance. Things like that may affect cost. That goes into total profitability on finished product. Those are pretty stable as well. Org grade, the chemistry of it is not the biggest concern. Even though it does create challenges, we just have to be very consistent and more disciplined on being better operators as we were processing them.

Luciano Siani Pires (EVP and CFO)

Maybe Bruce, just to your point, in order to reduce the risks. We actually are building up rock inventories this year as well. There is ample buffer to absorb any variations. Indeed, back to the cash flow conversation, about $160 million of increase in working capital this year comes from rock inventory that we are preparing to fire in all cylinders when we can in the concentration plants.

Operator (participant)

The next question will come from Jordan Lee with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Jordan Lee (Analyst)

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Regarding the fourth quarter phosphate sales volume guide, wanted to clarify whether the potential demand deferral that you called out is reflected in that range, or would it be lower if that occurs? Could you maybe try to size that potential impact? Thanks.

Bruce Bodine (President and CEO)

Yeah. Let me start, Jordan. Appreciate that. Our guidance is really based on production at this point. We did mention in the commentary that any deferral could be risk. And let me just turn it over to Jenny to kind of talk about what that is and looks like.

Jenny Wang (EVP of Commercial)

Sure. I'd like to start to talk about overall North America phosphate shipment this year. I know there have been a lot of discussions on demand change. I want to remind ourselves that the import to the U.S. market, to North America market, year to date, October, has reduced by 1.1 million tons, which is a 36% reduction. If there's no more import into this country by end of the year, the total import reduction will be 1.3 million tons. Meaning the shipment or demand in North America likely going to be impacted by supply. That's a fact. I also want to remind ourselves, spring applications were very normal in terms of the shipment. The summer fill subscription that we have seen, very strong. At this moment, the fall applications are very well underway. Now, understand the customer's cautiousness.

In getting into the winter fuel period. Given the farmers' economic situation and the uncertainties related to the government payment, we've been cautious on potential deferral of phosphate application from Q4, from December basically, into Q1. That deferral possibility could be depending on several factors. We would say if the government payment, which is likely going to come out, we just don't know when, and we don't know how much, that will impact the customer's decision on when they want to step in for winter fuel. The second factor is weather condition. In the normal November, December, if the weather is dry and warm, farmers tend to get out to get fertilizers on the ground before the winter weather really impacts them. These two major factors we're watching very closely, so as our customers. They are going to say whether the tons are going to get.

Purchased in November, December, or pushed back into Q1 next year. In summary for phosphate, I want to call out the potential deferral is depending on these two factors. The demand impact has been driven by supply, meaning reduced import. Potash is a very different story. The affordability itself is not really an issue. We are cautious on the potential deferral just because of some of the customers and farmers, when they apply potash in North America, they go together with phosphate. If there was a deferral, some part of the potash application could be deferred into Q1 as well. I would end to say with a very big harvest that we are seeing in North America, and also for a fact in Brazil as well, there are significant removal of nutrients for phosphate and potash.

This additional removal of phosphate and potash from the soil needs to be replenished into the soil in order to not impact productivity and yield for next year. The farmers in the U.S., in Canada, and in Brazil, they know that. With that, thanks.

Operator (participant)

The next question will come from Ben Duer with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Ben Theurer (Analyst)

Yeah. Good morning. And thanks for taking my question. I wanted to come back to Fertilizantes. I mean, I remember about a year ago at the Investor Day, you talked about it, how you want to bring this business into a level of somewhere north of $100 million, like $120 million, $130 million, I think, was the target on a quarterly basis. And you've been on a nice track as it relates to the delivery Q1, Q2, and then significantly surplus Q3. Maybe explain to us a little bit more what drives your expectation for the fourth quarter so much down, particularly considering that this is actually a relatively important quarter in Brazil. Help us understand what is taking it back to square one. And how should we think about it as we look into 2026?

Bruce Bodine (President and CEO)

Yeah. Thanks, Ben. I think we may disagree that it's not going back to square one. I think we put in our earnings material kind of a comparison to last year. But we do believe that fourth quarter this year will be significantly better than last year. The credit situation in Brazil is definitely driving some risks in buying in Brazil, particularly for small farmers. That is maybe more of it. Quarter four historically, and that's why you see, is a lower distribution margin quarter based on product mix. The products that we sell, more nitrogen products, less phosphate products for the growing season. That is an impact as well. North of $100 million, and we said approximately 100, is actually, we feel, not a bad quarter given the backdrop of what's going on in that business.

When you average all that out quarter by quarter, I think we would expect north of 100, would you say $120 million of EBITDA on a quarterly basis. You are going to see seasonality in first quarter and fourth quarter as they are always our lowest quarters based on mostly product mix in Brazil. Jenny, you want to add anything? Luciano, go ahead.

Luciano Siani Pires (EVP and CFO)

Most of the decline is going to be driven by the production business in Brazil because of product mix that was mentioned. Because the Brazilian market these days has been purchasing way more low analysis products, SSP, for example, even through imports. Because part of our production in Brazil is of higher value products, we're kind of baking in the forecast lower sales, especially of these higher margin products. That is affecting a lot. We're baking around $70 million of decline in the results of the production side of it. The other thing which is seasonal, just to remind, is the co-products. Third quarter is kind of a peak season for sales of co-products. They should decline by another like 20-something million US dollars, just the co-products sales. Again, we won't have the tailwind of the bad debt recovery.

When you bake all of this, and admittedly with a little bit of a hedge to see how the sale of the higher margin products are going to behave, that's why we're being a little more cautious on the guidance.

Operator (participant)

The next question will come from Edwin Rodriguez with Lazard. Please go ahead.

Edlain Rodriguez (Analyst)

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I mean, this is for Bruce or even Jenny. Given all the puts and takes in the ag market right now, crop prices, inventory levels, supply demand, and so forth. In your view, what drives fertilizer prices higher in the near term?

Bruce Bodine (President and CEO)

Yeah. Edlaine, thanks. I'm going to actually let me just start and then turn it over to Jenny because she's got some data points on what's happening in various geographies. I think it comes down to the macros, Edlaine. I know you're focused on. Maybe part of your question is how do you separate that from. Ag. Fundamentals and maybe ag farmer affordability. On the two commodities that we make, the S and Ds for fertilizer. As Jenny did say, in phosphate, supply is constrained. Prices have to come up in order to make demand meet the supply, right? Until something fundamentally changes there, and in phosphate, particularly. As I've said in the opening script. With China's demand continuing to grow, not only for ag inputs, but also on LFP industrial. Less Chinese phosphate is going to actually be exported.

I know Jenny is going to talk a little bit maybe about what is coming out on further restrictions potentially. Without new supply of significance coming on, fundamentally changing the fertilizer supply and demand, it's just not happening on the supply side. We actually see demand continuing to be constrained in the near term because of lack of supply. That likely is not going to change, in our forecast anyways, of significance for quite some time. The first time you might start to see a little bit more supply coming, 2028, I think, Jenny, as OCP starts to ramp up some of their announced increases as well as modern. That's phosphate. On potash, it's not a heck of a lot different. It's a very constructive supply and demand. It's that S and D that we see.

Driving fertilizer prices on each of those two sides, the potash and the phosphate. With the first half of this year and the former FSU kind of down, supply was tight. Prices picked up. We did not see as much come out of Laos this year. FSU was down. China, Chile, were down this year from a supply standpoint. China's appetite continues to grow on potash as well. You get down to the puts and takes, and Southeast Asia was a huge consumer this year of potash, keeping things tight. The S and D is very constructive. Do not see that dramatically changing in 2026. In fact, continuing more of the same as BHP has pushed out their startup. We do see a little bit of tons coming out of Laos additional.

A little bit out of EuroChem and maybe BPC with the Zinsky project near the tail end of this year. But demand. We can see continuing to grow to suck up that supply. So things staying very constructive on the S and D for fertilizer. Jenny, turn it over to you as I've maybe covered some of your stuff, but go ahead.

Jenny Wang (EVP of Commercial)

Oh, good. I probably want to add some data points. Firstly, when we talk about ag economics and farm economics, we tend to only focus in the U.S. and Brazil. I would say the ag economics are very variable across the globe. It is pressured in America. We have seen much more favorable conditions in the rest of the world. If you look into the major ag market, China and India are very supportive from their government policies. Ag economics are not really a challenge. Therefore, we have seen very big growth, significant growth on the consumptions of potash in both markets and also phosphate. That is a reminder, and let alone some of the other markets in Asia due to different crop dynamics, right? The other data, very quick data point on phosphate, Chinese export of phosphate is likely going to continuously be restricted.

This year, year to date, already we've seen a reduction of 18% over a million tons. For the rest of the year, we are going to see very little export out of China. The full year, we are going to see over 1.5 million tons reduction. That hole, there's nobody this year on phosphate supply is able to put in. The market for phosphate is really demand is constrained by supply. Looking into 2026, the economics are really supportive for further demand growth. Again, that is going to be depending on how much supply is going to be improved. Partially, it's coming from Mosaic ourselves. Potash, I think, Bruce, you covered very well, very stable market. The nutrient itself, affordability is very good. That's the reason we see the growth across the board. This is going to continue in 2026.

Operator (participant)

The next question will come from David Simones with BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

David Symonds (Analyst)

Yeah. Just one on sulfur, please, or sort of phosphate inputs more generally. Russia's sulfur export ban seems to be pushing sulfur prices higher. There have been some outages in ammonia, which are also pushing ammonia prices higher. I'm just curious, obviously, the spot stripping margin that you show in your presentation has come down to, I guess, more normalized levels. Is there a risk that that goes further with very weak farmer economics making it harder to pass through some of these prices in DAP? Do you see a sort of risk in the short term on stripping margins? Thank you.

Bruce Bodine (President and CEO)

Thanks, David. Good question. Something we talk about a lot. We definitely do see stripping margins coming down because of exactly what you said on raw materials. Sulfur, we see some of these higher costs sticking into early next year for sure. Ammonia, we do see that trending down in time as new capacity comes on. In the short term, as you mentioned, certain restrictions have caused prices to increase. Stripping margins right now, and particularly realized for Mosaic, are still above historical norms. They have come down, but they're coming down from a five-handle number to maybe low fours or upper threes potentially. That is still very healthy stripping margins for phosphate based on history. Jenny, maybe you want to comment a little bit more on what you're hearing on the raw material side?

Jenny Wang (EVP of Commercial)

Yeah, sure. Some data point. Sulfur export out of Russia post-war has significantly reduced. The recent attack of Ukrainian tune refineries in Russia has for sure contributed to the tightness of the export of sulfur out of Russia. I would also say the overall sulfur being used on fertilizer production is over 50%. If the price of phosphate is under pressure, that will have impact to the sulfur price as well. I would say the sulfur price is not only driven by supply demand itself, it will also be impacted by the demand from phosphate. If any pressure on the prices of phosphate, that will eventually impact the sulfur prices as well. That happened many times in the history. It will just take a bit of time to work through.

The S and D dynamics between phosphate S and D and also sulfur S and D.

Operator (participant)

The next question will come from Kristen Owen with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Kristen Owen (Analyst)

Hi, good morning. Thank you for fitting me in. Just wanted to revisit the critical mineral. I think the comment period for that ends this month. So just remind us, puts and takes on whether phosphate has any implication for you, how we should think about the puts and takes on that being added to the list. Thank you.

Bruce Bodine (President and CEO)

Yeah, Kristen, great question. We're active in Washington. Not only ourselves, but through industry associations advocating for that. It seems that there's momentum to add it. I know even at some of the Senate hearings recently talking about that. Seems to indicate more momentum than not. What does it do for us? I think what we're hoping for is that it brings a spotlight to the criticality of that. Obviously being a critical mineral, but it keeps that education within government that we need streamlined regulatory frameworks, maybe less burden, quicker permitting times to bring things to market. That is probably where the biggest advantage is for us. To make sure that at the end of the day, we keep good supply within North America for good free trade and competitiveness for farmers to maximize the food that they grow. That's what we're interested in.

By adding phosphate to the critical minerals list.

Operator (participant)

The next question will come from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Vincent Andrews (Analyst)

Thank you. Appreciate you filling me in. Just want to ask on the finished goods inventory, I think it's about $1.7 billion. How much of that is at the mine or one of your facilities versus perhaps on consignment with a customer?

Bruce Bodine (President and CEO)

Yeah, Vincent, thanks. Luciano, I'm just going to turn it over to him as he's got that handy here.

Luciano Siani Pires (EVP and CFO)

I would say the inventories are mostly spread around the entire supply chain, right? We have our warehouses in the Midwest, we have barges on the river, we have our finished good yards in our Florida facility. It is ready to be moved, and it is well positioned as soon as demand comes back to be sold.

Bruce Bodine (President and CEO)

I think with that, we're going to close the call as we're at time. Thank you for your questions, everyone. To conclude our call, I'd like to reiterate a few of our key points. First, our work to improve phosphate asset reliability is definitely paying off, and we're seeing that day in and day out, with phosphate production climbing as the year moves along.

We intend to reach our targeted rates, and we intend to sustain our production at high levels once we get there. Our business in Brazil is performing very well despite the difficult credit environment. And Mosaic's potash business continues to deliver very strong results. We're producing at high rates to meet robust global demand. We remain focused on our financial foundation. We're reducing costs and remaining committed to disciplined capital allocation. In all, Mosaic is in excellent position to deliver compelling returns through 2026 and beyond. Thank you for joining the call and have a great and safe day.

Operator (participant)

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.