MOSAIC (MOS)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Mosaic Posts Q4 Loss on Notable Items; Full Year EBITDA Tops $2.4B

February 24, 2026 · by Fintool AI Agent

Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) reported Q4 2025 results that missed consensus expectations across key metrics, with revenue of $2.97B falling 15.8% below the $3.53B estimate and a net loss of $519M driven by $414M in notable items . Despite the weak quarter, full year 2025 performance was solid with adjusted EBITDA of $2.42B and net income of $541M . The stock closed at $28.49 on February 24, with earnings released after market close.

Did Mosaic Beat Earnings?

No. Mosaic missed on all key metrics in Q4 2025:

*Values retrieved from S&P Global

The quarterly loss was driven by $414M in notable items that impacted results, including write-downs and charges . On an adjusted basis, Q4 EBITDA of $505M was below expectations but represented the impact of soft U.S. demand in phosphates and challenging market conditions in Brazil.

Full Year 2025 Performance

The full year tells a better story:

How Did Each Segment Perform?

Phosphate: Soft Q4 Demand, But Production Improving

Key takeaways:

• Q4 sales volumes of 1.3MT were impacted by soft U.S. demand; management expects recovery to 1.7-1.9MT in Q1 2026
• Cash cost of conversion improved to $112/t, down 16% from the high-water mark earlier in 2025
• North America phosphoric acid production trending higher — Q4 2025 at 770K MT vs 635K MT in Q4 2024
• Near-record phosphate rock production of 14.6MT for FY 2025

Potash: Record International Performance

Key takeaways:

• Record international sales volumes of 5.5MT for full year, contributing to strong results
• Highest MOP production in 8 years despite lower-than-expected Q4 volumes
• Signed Carlsbad sale agreement with ~$30M expected value and ~$20M ARO reduction

Mosaic Fertilizantes: Challenging Q4, Strong Full Year

Key takeaways:

• Q4 results negatively impacted by credit challenges, intensified competition, and rapid rise in sulfur prices
• Full year Adjusted EBITDA of $567M was up 65% YoY, the third highest in operating history
• Cost management focus yielded blended rock costs of $97/t in 2025, lowest since 2021

How Did the Stock React?

Earnings were released after market close on February 24, 2026. The stock closed at $28.49 (-1.69% on the day). Key context:

*Values retrieved from S&P Global

The stock has rallied from the November 2025 lows near $23 but remains 25% below the 52-week high. The analyst target price of $32.27 implies 13% upside from current levels.

What Did Management Guide?

Q1 2026 Outlook

Full Year 2026 Guidance

Pricing Sensitivities

Management provided helpful sensitivities for modeling :

• DAP: $10/t price change = $80M Adjusted EBITDA impact
• MOP: $10/t price change = $65M Adjusted EBITDA impact

What Changed From Last Quarter?

Negative developments:

1. Revenue declined significantly — Q4 at $2.97B vs Q3 at $3.45B (-14%)
2. Notable items of $414M created a large quarterly loss
3. Working capital increased by $1.0B due to inventory build
4. Free cash flow was negative at ($535M) for full year 2025
5. Debt increased — higher working capital needs drove borrowing

Positive developments:

1. Phosphate production improving — Q4 at 1.7MT with momentum continuing into 2026
2. Cost reductions achieved — $150M value capture target met in 2025, additional $100M targeted for 2026
3. Record potash international sales — 5.5MT for the full year
4. Mosaic Biosciences growing — Positively contributed to Q4 EBITDA, net sales expected to double in 2026

Capital Allocation and Balance Sheet

Cash Flow and Leverage

2026 Priorities

Management outlined capital priorities for 2026 :

1. Regular dividend — maintaining $280M annual pace
2. Debt paydown — top priority after working capital normalizes

Working Capital Build

The $1.0B increase in working capital was driven by inventory :

• Raw materials up $346M from higher sulfur prices and elevated rock inventories
• Finished goods up $428M from price increases and inventory build in North America and Brazil
• Management expects rock inventories to decrease as phosphate production continues improving
• Finished goods to reverse over the next few quarters

Strategic Updates

Asset Monetization Progress

Value Capture Initiative

Having achieved the $150M cost reduction target in 2025, Mosaic is targeting an additional $100M in 2026 through :

• Further cost reductions with focus on North America operations
• Supply chain efficiencies — optimizing excess inventories, scrap, demurrage
• Improved pricing, netbacks, and margin optimization
• Contract management using AI to prevent "over-invoicing"
• Shared services transformation
• Further reduction in administrative functions

Mosaic Biosciences Growth

The biologicals and micronutrients business achieved several milestones :

• Positively contributed to Q4 Adjusted EBITDA
• Successfully launched 5 new products in 2025
• Expanded to 16 countries with 60+ registrations
• Net sales targeted to double again in 2026

Market Outlook

Phosphate Market

• Global demand still constrained by supply; Chinese export policy could further trim supply
• DAP affordability improved in Q4, with prices increasing as seasonal demand builds
• Stripping margins at five-year lows on higher raw material prices, pressuring producer economics

Potash Market

• Affordability driving demand growth with largely balanced supply/demand supporting stable prices
• Low Brazil and China inventory levels (stocks-to-use at 15-16%) support 2026 demand

Agricultural Fundamentals

• Crop prices remain range-bound at levels supportive of fertilizer demand
• Brazil planted area expanding (93.8M Ha in 25/26, 95.9M Ha expected in 26/27), requiring fertilizer to drive yield increases

Forward Catalysts

Near-term (Q1-Q2 2026):

• Q1 2026 volume recovery in Phosphate (guided 1.7-1.9MT vs 1.3MT in Q4)
• Working capital release as inventories normalize
• Additional asset monetization deals expected

Medium-term (2026):

• Phosphate production target of 7.0+ MT (highest in recent years)
• $100M additional value capture from cost initiatives
• Mosaic Biosciences sales doubling
• Niobium opportunity at Araxa/Patrocinio advancing

Risks to watch:

• Chinese phosphate export policy (additional restrictions could further tighten supply)
• Raw material cost volatility (sulfur, ammonia)
• Brazil credit conditions and agricultural market health
• Working capital management and debt levels

---

Data sourced from Mosaic Company Q4 2025 earnings materials released February 24, 2026. Consensus estimates from S&P Global.

Related Links:

• MOS Company Page
• Q4 2025 Earnings Transcript
• Prior Quarter: Q3 2025 Earnings