MPLX - Earnings Call - Q1 2025

Executive Summary

• Q1 2025 delivered steady operations but headline misses vs consensus: revenue $2.887B and EPS $1.10 vs S&P Global consensus of $3.164B and $1.15, respectively; adjusted EBITDA rose 7% YoY to $1.757B, and DCF reached $1.486B with 1.5x coverage. Revenue/EPS consensus from S&P Global estimates: $3.164B and $1.15*; actuals: $2.887B and $1.10 → both misses*.
• Natural Gas & NGL Services EBITDA rose 15% YoY to $660M, aided by a $37M non‑recurring benefit and higher Permian/Utica volumes; Crude Oil & Products Logistics EBITDA increased 4% YoY to $1,097M on higher throughput and tariffs.
• Strategic catalysts: definitive agreement to acquire remaining 55% of BANGL for $715M (100% ownership), FID for the Traverse pipeline (1.75 Bcf/d, in-service 2027), and a 5% incremental stake in Matterhorn to 10%—strengthening Permian-to-Gulf Coast value chains.
• Leverage was 3.3x with $2.5B cash; adjusted FCF was $641M (after distributions: -$337M) driven by working capital build and growth investments; capital return continued with $1.0B distributions and $100M buybacks in the quarter.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Integrated NGL strategy progressed: BANGL 100% ownership, Traverse FID, and Matterhorn stake increase—management emphasized connecting Permian NGLs from wellhead to Gulf Coast fractionators and global markets.
  • Quote: “We achieved 7% adjusted EBITDA growth year over year… growth projects anchored in the Permian and Marcellus basins are expected to support mid-single digit adjusted EBITDA growth.” — CEO Maryann Mannen.
• Strong segment performance: Natural Gas & NGL Services adjusted EBITDA +15% YoY to $660M, supported by a $37M non-recurring customer agreement benefit and volume growth; Crude Oil & Products Logistics up 4% YoY on throughput and rates.
• Capital return and balance sheet: DCF of $1.486B covered distributions 1.5x; leverage 3.3x with ample liquidity ($2.5B cash, $3.5B total availability) supporting continued buybacks and distribution stability.

What Went Wrong

• Headline misses vs consensus: Q1 revenue $2.887B vs $3.164B* and EPS $1.10 vs $1.15*, likely reflecting lower realized “operating revenue” vs expectations; sequentially, EPS dipped vs Q4 ($1.07→$1.10) but revenue modestly below estimates*.
• Adjusted FCF after distributions remained negative (-$337M) due to working capital build and growth capex cadence, constraining incremental capital return flexibility intra-quarter.
• Higher operating expenses alongside throughput growth partially offset rate and volume tailwinds in Crude Oil & Products Logistics; Natural Gas & NGL Services benefitted from a one-time $37M item that will not repeat.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Welcome to the MPLX first quarter earnings call. My name is Amanda, and I will be your operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Please press star one on your touch-tone phone to enter the queue. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Kristina Kazarian. Kristina, you may begin.

Kristina Kazarian (VP of Investor Relations)

Welcome to MPLX's first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. The slides that accompany this call can be found on our website at mplx.com under the investor tab. Joining me on the call today are Maryann Mannen, President and CEO; Kris Hagedorn, CFO; and other members of the executive team. We invite you to read the safe harbor statements on slide two. We will be making forward-looking statements today. Actual results may differ. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are included there, as well as in our filings with the SEC. With that, I will turn the call over to Maryann.

Maryann Mannen (President and CEO)

Thanks, Kristina. Good morning, and thank you for joining our call. In the first quarter, adjusted EBITDA was $1.8 billion, a 7% increase year-over-year. Distributable cash flow was $1.5 billion, which supported nearly $1 billion of distribution to our unit holders and $100 million in unit repurchases. Since the start of the year, MPLX has announced over $1 billion of strategic acquisitions. First, with our NGL value chain, MPLX will be acquiring the remaining 55% interest in the Bangle NGL pipeline system. Full ownership of Bangle and its expansion opportunities enhance our Permian platform as we connect growing NGL production from the wellhead to our recently announced Gulf Coast fractionation facilities. The Bangle transaction is anticipated to close in July, subject to the satisfaction of closing conditions. Second, MPLX expanded its crude oil value chain by acquiring gathering businesses from Whiptail Midstream in March.

These San Juan Basin assets in the Four Corners region enhance our strategic relationship with MPC. Third, MPLX has entered into an agreement to double its stake in the Matterhorn Express pipeline from 5% to 10%. The transaction is expected to close in the second quarter of 2025, subject to the satisfaction of closing conditions. These acquisitions are expected to be immediately accretive. We're all well aware of the volatility in the commodity markets. However, we continue to see robust production across our Marcellus, Utica, and Permian operating regions. These basins have some of the lowest break-even prices in the U.S., offering economically advantaged and development opportunities. Based on feedback from our producer customers, we continue to expect year-over-year volume growth. In the Marcellus and Utica basins, longer laterals are resulting in higher volumes with less incremental capital.

In the Permian basin, production growth continues to create growth opportunities across our crude, natural gas, and NGL businesses. The U.S. is a low-cost producer of energy fuels needed across the globe. Notwithstanding current market volatility, the outlook for hydrocarbons remains robust. Grid electrification, onshoring, nearshoring, and data center development are driving natural gas demand growth forecasts through the end of the decade. As demand increases for natural gas-powered electricity, we are well-positioned to support the development plans of our producer customers. MPLX is growing the base business by developing processing plants on a just-in-time basis, increasing the utilization of our existing assets, optimizing our asset footprint, and enhancing our strategic relationship with MPC. At the same time, global demand for transportation fuels is expected to grow. The U.S. refining industry is expected to remain structurally advantaged over the rest of the world.

The accessibility of nearby crude, the availability of low-cost natural gas, and overall systems flexibility provide U.S. refiners a competitive advantage over international sources of supply. Furthermore, we believe the MPC refining assets are the most competitive in each region where MPC operates. Our strategic relationship with MPC positions us well to facilitate crude and products logistics solutions, which optimize the value chains supporting their operations. We have a very high degree of confidence in our investments as the macroeconomic environment for energy remains favorable. We believe we have significant opportunities to grow the business, leveraging our existing value chain platforms. Within the Permian, MPLX advanced its strategic growth objectives as we are strengthening our NGL integrated value chain.

MPLX is completing construction of its seventh processing plant Secretariat, a 200 million cu ft per day processing plant expected online in the fourth quarter of 2025, bringing our processing capacity in the Permian basin to 1.4 billion cu ft per day. In the first quarter, the Bangle pipeline completed its expansion to a capacity of 250,000 barrels a day. The mainline expansion to 300,000 barrels per day is progressing and expected to be operational in the second half of 2026. We are progressing the 2025 portion of our $2.5 billion investment in our two Gulf Coast Fractionators and Joint Venture Export Terminal. Frack one and the export terminal are expected to be in service in 2028, while Frack two is expected to be in service in late 2029. Our current customer commitments support this project.

Volumes from our plants are currently fractionated at third-party facilities, and in the future, these volumes will move through our fractionation facilities. Upon completion of MPLX's fully integrated NGL value chain, the Bangle pipeline will connect the Permian to the Gulf Coast Fractionators and supply LPGs to a growing global market. Additionally, we believe the expansion of our Gulf Coast NGL value chain will create a platform for optimization and incremental growth opportunities. Within natural gas, last month, we announced another step in the advancement of our natural gas value chain. MPLX and its partners announced they will construct the Traverse natural gas pipeline following the receipt of sufficient volume commitments. Traverse will be a 1.7 billion cu ft per day pipeline and connects supply between Agua Dulce and Houston area. The project offers a compelling value proposition and complements the previously announced Blackcomb and Rio Bravo pipelines.

MPLX will be a 34% partner in the project. Traverse is expected to be in service in the second half of 2027. The continued build-out of this natural gas system enhances our ability to provide Permian basin shippers with premium market access and superior flexibility while enhancing MPLX's natural gas value chains through additional growth opportunities. To execute our mid-single-digit growth strategy, our plans include spending $1.7 billion of capital on growth projects in 2025. 85% of our growth capital will be allocated to opportunities within our natural gas and NGL services segment, driving third-party cash flows to MPLX. In the Marcellus, our largest operating region, construction of our Harmon Creek 3 processing plant and fractionation capacity align with producer drilling plans. With strong commitments to our system in the northeast, this complex will include a 300 million cu ft per day processing plant and 40,000 barrels per day deethanizer.

MPLX anticipates that by the second half of 2026, gas processing capacity in the northeast will reach 8.1 billion cu ft per day, and fractionation capacity will reach 800,000 barrels per day. Within the crude oil and products logistics segment, we are expanding crude gathering pipelines, supporting the Permian and Bakken basins, undertaking butane blending projects at our product terminals, and investing in other high returns targeted at the expansion or debottlenecking of assets. We expect mid-teens returns on our investments and believe our execution of these projects will extend the durability of our mid-single-digit growth profile, allowing us to invest in the business and support annual distribution increases in the future. We have the financial flexibility to execute strategic acquisitions that complement our organic capital deployment plans and will continue to evaluate opportunities as they arise.

We have ample capacity to undertake additional strategic acquisitions while maintaining leverage below four times. We are committed to growing the partnership through our lens of capital discipline and are confident in our growth opportunities to generate durable cash flow for MPLX, supporting our commitment to return capital to unit holders. Now, let me turn the call over to Kris to discuss our operational and financial results for the quarter.

Kris Hagedorn (CFO)

Thanks, Maryann. Slide nine outlines the first quarter operational and financial performance highlights for our crude oil and products logistics segment. Segment adjusted EBITDA increased $38 million when compared to the first quarter of 2024. The increase was driven by higher throughputs across our systems, partially offset by higher operating expenses associated with those increased throughputs. Pipeline volumes were up year-over-year, primarily due to less refinery maintenance impact and increased volumes in the Permian. Terminal volumes were also up year-over-year, primarily due to the West Coast. Moving to our natural gas and NGL services segment on slide 10, the segment established a new record as segment adjusted EBITDA increased $84 million compared to the first quarter of 2024. The increase was driven by a $37 million non-recurring benefit and volumes in the Permian and Utica basins, including growth from equity affiliates.

Gathered volumes increased 5% year-over-year, primarily due to increased drilling and production in the Permian and the addition of dry gas volumes from Utica assets acquired in 2024. Processing volumes increased 4% year-over-year, primarily in the Permian and Utica basins. Processing in the Utica alone has increased by 24% year-over-year, demonstrating the value of the liquids-rich acreage. Marcellus processing utilization was 92% in the quarter, reflecting continued strong producer activity in the region. Total fractionation volumes grew 4% year-over-year, primarily due to higher processed volumes and ethane recoveries in the Marcellus and Utica basins. Moving to our first quarter financial highlights on slide 11, total adjusted EBITDA of $1.8 billion and distributable cash flow of $1.5 billion increased 7% and 8% respectively from the prior year.

MPLX returned $1 billion to unit holders in distributions and $100 million in unit repurchases during the quarter. We repaid $500 million of maturing debt in February and also issued $2 billion of senior notes. A portion of the proceeds was used to retire $1.2 billion of senior notes maturing in June. We ended the quarter with a cash balance of $2.5 billion. As a reminder, the first quarter is typically our lowest quarter for project-related expenses. Like prior years, we anticipate these expenses will increase nearly $40 million in the second quarter, reflecting more favorable weather to undertake project-related work. MPLX maintains strong financial flexibility, and we expect to continue growing the partnership's cash flows, enabling the return of capital to unit holders. Now, let me hand it back to Maryann for some concluding thoughts.

Maryann Mannen (President and CEO)

Thanks, Chris. MPLX has a strong history of growing the partnership's cash flows and its distributions to unit holders by executing its strategic priorities, all while maintaining capital discipline. While year-to-year growth may not be linear, we are targeting a mid-single-digit growth rate over multi-year periods. As you can see from our historical results, we have achieved this growth. By deploying capital wisely, controlling our cost, and optimizing operations to get the most out of our assets, we have delivered 7% growth for both adjusted EBITDA and DCF on a four-year compound annual basis. Similarly, the growth and durability of our cash flows, combined with strong coverage of 1.5 times and low leverage, has allowed MPLX to consistently increase its quarterly distribution, most recently by 12.5%. Our growing portfolio is expected to support this level of annual distribution increases in the future.

In summary, the opportunities ahead of MPLX in 2025 remain compelling as we execute our mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth strategy. MPLX is a strategic investment for Marathon, and as both pursue value-enhancing opportunities, the value of this strategic relationship is further strengthened. Our commitment to operational excellence, our growth opportunities, and our financial flexibility position us to generate durable cash flow for MPLX, supporting our commitment to peer-leading capital returns to unit holders. Now, I'll turn the call over to Kristina.

Kristina Kazarian (VP of Investor Relations)

Thanks, Maryann. As we open the call for questions, this is a courtesy to all participants. We ask that you limit yourself to one question and a follow-up. If time permits, we will reprompt for additional questions. Operator, are we ready for the questions?

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. If you have a question, please press star then one on your touchtone phone. If you wish to be removed from the queue, please press star then two. If you are using a speakerphone, you may need to pick up the handset first before pressing the numbers. Once again, if you have a question, please press star then one on your touchtone phone. Our first question will come from John MacKay with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

John Mackay (VP of Equity Ressearch)

Hey, good morning. Thank you for the time. Maryann, I appreciate the comments on the kind of more positive tone and the macro backdrop, but I do want to go back to something we probably haven't talked about in a while. Do you and the team mind just kind of running through and reminding us what the business looks like right now in terms of kind of contract mix, take or pay, etc.? Any comments on both sides of the business would be helpful, particularly as the partnership has grown over the last couple of years. Thanks.

Maryann Mannen (President and CEO)

Yeah, good morning, John. Thanks for the question. Look, first and foremost, if we take sort of a step back and try to look at the business overall, we're obviously seeing a little bit of volatility. We're watching a few of our producer customers very closely, obviously some of them having announced in the last few days, but we think our strategy truly positions us well. We believe that the strategy is durable, and we can succeed really in generating the kinds of returns and growth through most of these macroeconomic environments. The strategic relationship with MPC is a key part of that. I mentioned it as well. I think keep in mind that notwithstanding this volatility we're seeing, that most of the earnings in our business are coming from NAT gas in the NGL segment in the northeast.

Those natural gas prices are remaining strong, and the producers are relatively less sensitive to that. In general, I think you also saw the announcements that we made in the quarter, the incremental purchase to 100% from 55% in Bangle. You saw our announcement in increasing Matterhorn from 5% to 10% as well. These things continue to be supportive. The other comment that I'd make, and then I'll pass it to Chris to talk a little bit more about the contract mix, is much of our business is not spec, right? We are building just in time. Our projects, if you look at what we're doing in the Permian, seventh gas processing plant there that brings us to 1.4 BCF, is really just in time. That project will continue. We expect that to be accretive and meet our goals.

Let me pass it to Kris to talk about the mix there.

Kris Hagedorn (CFO)

Yeah, John, just to get maybe a little more granular into the mix, we'll start with crude and products logistics. That's about, if you recall, two-thirds of our EBITDA for MPLX in total, and about 90% of that segment revenue is generated from Marathon Petroleum. When you think about those arrangements with MPC, they provide significant protection during lower refinery utilization. I just would have you think back to the 2020 COVID year when we actually were able to grow distributions and EBITDA. When you think about our natural gas and NGL segment, roughly two-thirds of that EBITDA is still being driven by the Marcellus basin. When you think about the Marcellus basin, those contracts are fee-based and have over 75% of VC protection. That's maybe a general overview.

John Mackay (VP of Equity Ressearch)

That's helpful. I appreciate the detail. One more, and again, acknowledging the comments and kind of the just-in-time project focus. If we're looking at the capital budget and kind of spending from here, I guess what's the sensitivity on that to the macro backdrop? Let's say if Permian production starts to slow a little bit more, how can you kind of be flexible on some of these projects? Maybe in particular, since a lot of these are JVs, maybe even like the export dock, how do we think about kind of really governance with your partners on choosing or being able to flex some of that spend? Thanks.

Maryann Mannen (President and CEO)

Thanks, John. Let me just remind you, if I might, as we look at our capital plan for 2025, we said about $1.7 billion that was focused on growth. About 85% of that is really NGL and NAT gas related. Secretariat is in that mix. We do not anticipate slowing that project or that processing facility is expected to be complete at the end of the year. We've also talked about Harmon Creek 3, the Marcellus, that project, again, expected and on its way. One where we are in the early stages, but we're spending this year's portion is for the FRAX and the export terminal, 2028 and 2029. I would say the rest of that, we can obviously continue to evaluate and have the ability to flex some of that as needed. For the most part, that's really how we're seeing capital for this year.

I'm going to pass it to Greg and let him give you a little more color there.

Greg Floerke (EVP and COO)

Yeah, thanks, John. I think that Maryann's points were all just to add a little bit to that. We do have strong customers, a solid customer base in the Permian and all across the regions. The Secretariat plant that we are constructing now is being built, not to spec, but under contract. We take a long-term approach, and our customers are too. Obviously, volatility right now and some fluidity in terms of crude pricing. The gas and gas processing side, we're still bullish on. As the gas oil ratio goes up on even the producing wells, regardless of the pace of new crude drilling, that also drives volume in the Permian-Delaware basin.

Maryann Mannen (President and CEO)

John, it's Maryann. I want to make sure I think you also asked a question about whether or not we would consider slowing or halting the project on the export business. I think that was your question. I would say at this juncture right now, we continue to think that LPG exports will continue. They need to find a home placement in Europe, Southeast Asia, Japan. We saw just the other day, frankly, the tariffs get lifted on ethane. At this juncture, we continue to believe it's an appropriate course for us to proceed.

John Mackay (VP of Equity Ressearch)

All right, that's great. Really appreciate the color. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Manav Gupta with UBS. Your line is open.

Manav Gupta (Executive Director)

Good morning. A strong M&A to drive growth. My quick question here is, can you get some more details around this acquisition of gathering business from Whiptail Midstream? How did this come about? The benefits to your midstream portfolio? It looks like it might actually be a little bit of a synergy to your refining business also. If you could talk about that.

Maryann Mannen (President and CEO)

Good morning, Manav. Thanks for the question. Yeah, so Whiptail, it's a crude oil, natural gas, and water gathering business, and it really supports production in the Four Corners region. I think you said it well. As we have continued to try to talk about the strategic relationship and our ability to optimize across our full value chains, this asset really complements MPLX's existing presence in the region, as well as enhances our strategic relationship with MPC, particularly when you think about its connectivity to the El Paso refinery. About a $237 million transaction. I think it really supports our requirements when we think about putting capital to work. We expect it to be immediately accretive, deliver mid-teens returns, and really complement the strategic relationship and the value chains between MPC and MPLX.

Manav Gupta (Executive Director)

Perfect. My quick follow-up here is, can you talk about the WPC JV, three strong partners? Looks like your guys are moving ahead with the Traverse pipeline. How does this project benefit the overall portfolio? Also, how do you see this JV developing, three partners coming together versus trying to do all alone on yourself? Can you talk about those benefits a little?

Maryann Mannen (President and CEO)

Sure, Manav. I think as we talk about our nat gas, wellhead, water strategy, we're really always looking to optimize those value chains, whether it's natural gas, the NGLs, crude. We don't think this is static, right? We're going to continue to adapt as we see the market. I think this is an example of an opportunity here as we're looking for the longer-term growth in our natural gas value chains. Let me pass it to Dave, and he can give you some of the specifics around Traverse.

Dave Heppner (SVP)

Hey, thanks, Maryann. Yeah, Manav, let me give a little more color about our Permian nat gas to Gulf Coast strategy and how Traverse fits into that because I think it's real important. First of all, let me set the stage that we have and continue to see strong Permian growth along with strong customer demand. We're always looking to participate in the opportunities along that value chain. That's kind of the backdrop. First was all around egress out of the Permian basin into the Gulf Coast. What I want you to think about there is Whistler and Blackcomb, Permian to the Agua Dulce market, and then Matterhorn from the Permian to the Katy market. Those are the long-haul pipes that clear the barrels out of the Permian basin.

Second is the connectivity, the final connectivity to the demand hub, which is the LNG facilities in the Gulf Coast. There, think about ADCC from Agua Dulce to Corpus Christi, and then Rio Bravo most recently from Agua Dulce to the Brownsville, Texas market. That is kind of that last mile to the demand hub, the LNG facilities. Third is where Traverse comes in. That is providing optionality and flexibility to our shippers and access to premium markets. Traverse is a bidirectional pipeline between Agua Dulce and Katy to give our shippers that optionality and flexibility. That is really how it all fits together.

Going forward, back to your question, we'll continue, as always, to evaluate opportunities, optimize and evaluate, and enhance our Permian to Gulf Coast value chain to meet this continued growth that we see and the continued customer demand and the flexibility that they're looking for. Hopefully that gives you a little more color in our overall strategy.

Manav Gupta (Executive Director)

Thank you, and congrats on a very strong quarter.

Maryann Mannen (President and CEO)

Thank you, Manav.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Burke Sansiviero with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Burke Sansiviero (Equity Research Senior Associate)

Hi, good morning. Just with the buyout of your partner's interest in Bangle, the two new FRAX and the export project, would you say the company now has sufficient scale to compete in the integrated NGL value chain, or are there more pieces you'd like to add to increase the size and scale of the platform?

Maryann Mannen (President and CEO)

Good morning, Burke, and thanks for the question. As we think about Bangle, when we started with about 25% ownership last year, we bought incremental ownership to get us to 45%. And now this year, we're announcing the final 55% that gives us 100% ownership of Bangle. We think this transaction and the level of ownership there, right, the 100% ownership is a really critical link in our integrated NGL value chain, and it strengthens our control there. Plus, we think it positions us to support our producer customers well. I would say, as you know and have heard us say, we continue to see opportunities. This strategy is critically important to us, and we'll look for opportunities to put capital to work that meet our requirements. That is growth, EBITDA, mid-single digit over the long term, being able to generate mid-teens returns, and ultimately then support the 12.5% distribution.

We will continue to evaluate those opportunities in addition to this transaction. I'm going to ask Shawn to give you a bit of color on Bangle as well.

Shawn Lyon (SVP of Logistics and Storage)

Good morning, Burke, and thanks, Maryann. Hey, Burke, we continue to see really strong volumes and growth profile in the Permian basin and the Bangle pipeline. What we call segment B, which is Gardendale to Sweeney expansion, was completed this first quarter at 250,000 barrels per day. The additional expansion to 300,000 barrels per day is expected to be completed in the second half of 2026. In summary, we're confident in the growth profile of Bangle, especially as we execute, as Maryann mentioned, our wellhead to water strategy continuing forward.

Burke Sansiviero (Equity Research Senior Associate)

Thanks for the color there. Just for my second one, how contracted are the frack and export projects with MPC? Is only the ethane that MPLX would need to sell to third parties?

Maryann Mannen (President and CEO)

Yeah, Burke, Maryann, we talked about the fact that ethane is what MPLX would be marketing last quarter, and then MPC and MPLX will enter into a contract for all of the C3. I will pass it to Greg and let him give you additional color.

Greg Floerke (EVP and COO)

Thanks, Maryann. Burke, we have facilities very near our planned Texas City FRAX and other options in that area. We do not plan at this point to export ethane, but we do have plenty of off-take options, and we are working those. That will be, as you mentioned, MPLX in charge of closing those deals.

Burke Sansiviero (Equity Research Senior Associate)

Thanks. Appreciate it.

Maryann Mannen (President and CEO)

Thanks for the questions, Burke.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one to be entered into the queue. Our next question comes from Michael Blum with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Michael Blum (Managing Director)

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Can you speak to the level of buybacks you executed in the first quarter? In light of the fact you've stepped up your level of CapEx, you have, I think, less excess free cash flow after distributions than you've had in the past, and the macro environment is obviously a little more uncertain. How do we think about buybacks going forward?

Maryann Mannen (President and CEO)

Yeah, good morning, Michael. Thanks for the question. First and foremost, I would say as we think about our capital allocation priorities, they really have not changed. We want to be sure that we are deploying capital to meet that mid-single digit growth over the period of time. As I said, we do not necessarily expect it to be linear, but over a long period of time, we are saying mid-single digit growth. At the same time, we want to be able to generate mid-teens returns on that capital that we put to work because we think maintaining that 12.5% distribution, as we have been talking about, is critically important.

At the same time, when we look at the valuation of the equity, when we look at our growth plans, and we look at the opportunities, those that we're here talking about today and those that we continue to evaluate, we think the equity is undervalued. We are using that as the ability, right, amongst all the rest of the capital allocation priorities to lean in there as well. I think you said it well, right? We're looking at the volatility in the short term, but overall, this year, we are expecting year-over-year volume growth, as I shared. Hopefully that's helpful, Michael.

Michael Blum (Managing Director)

Yep. Thanks for that. Appreciate it. I just wanted to ask a broad question on tariffs. It has not really come up much on this call. Is there just any impacts we should think about for MPLX, maybe to incremental project costs, returns, or any other elements we should be thinking of? Thanks.

Maryann Mannen (President and CEO)

Yeah, sure, Michael. I would say at this juncture, for what we know about the tariffs and the intentions, notwithstanding sort of what may happen within this less than 90-day window that's remaining here for resolution, it really has very minimal impact on MPLX, as you know, particularly as we think about the operations. Certainly, some of the projects that we talked about, particularly our FRAX, etc., we've tried to get in very early and ensure that we don't have cost creep, etc. What I would tell you is we are controlling, as you know we try to do. We're controlling the things that we absolutely can. We're trying to stay ahead of those curves and ensuring that we can bring those projects in as expected. Minimal impact as we sit here today for what we know.

Michael Blum (Managing Director)

Thank you.

Maryann Mannen (President and CEO)

You are welcome.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. At this time, we have no further questions. I'll now turn the call back over to Kristina.

Kristina Kazarian (VP of Investor Relations)

Thank you for your interest in MPLX. Should you have more questions or would you like clarifications on topics discussed this morning, please contact us. Our team will be available to help with your questions. Thank you for joining us today.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. That concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may disconnect at this time.