MPLX - Earnings Call - Q3 2025
November 4, 2025
Executive Summary
- MPLX delivered a mixed Q3: EPS sharply beat on a $484M gain from equity method investments, while operating revenue was below S&P Global consensus; the partnership raised its quarterly distribution 12.5% to $1.0765/unit (annualized $4.31) and reiterated a multi‑year mid‑single‑digit EBITDA growth profile. EPS beat vs. S&P Global consensus is substantial (see Estimates Context); however, revenue miss is partly definitional (consensus often references a different “revenue” basis than MPLX’s operating revenue).
- Adjusted EBITDA was $1.77B (+3% YoY), DCF $1.47B (+2% YoY); coverage was 1.3x (down from 1.5x in Q2) and leverage rose to 3.7x following $3.5B+ of acquisitions and $4.5B bond issuance to fund portfolio moves.
- Strategic catalysts: 12.5% distribution increase; LOI with MARA to supply gas for integrated power generation/data centers in West Texas; announced Eiger Express Permian‑to‑Katy gas pipeline FID; closing and integration of Northwind sour gas treating and full ownership of BANGL.
- Management guided that 2026 EBITDA growth should exceed 2025 due to project ramp (Secretariat, BANGL expansion, Northwind/Titan treating, plus long‑haul pipes), and expects sustaining 12.5% annual distribution growth for the “next couple of years” with coverage not falling below 1.3x.
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Distribution raised 12.5% for the second consecutive year (to $1.0765/unit; $4.31 annualized), signaling confidence in durable cash flows; coverage at 1.3x in Q3 and leverage still within the ≤4.0x framework.
- Strategic portfolio execution: closed Northwind sour gas treating ($2.4B), acquired remaining 55% of BANGL (to 100%), and announced Eiger Express FID; these expand the Permian‑to‑Gulf Coast value chain and underpin the 2026‑2029 growth pipeline.
- Management tone on growth: “We anticipate growth in 2026 will exceed that of 2025… and we do not expect MPLX’s coverage ratio to fall below 1.3x,” and reiterated 12.5% distribution growth for the next couple of years.
What Went Wrong
- Adjusted free cash flow turned sharply negative (−$2.31B) in Q3 due to acquisition outlays (Northwind and BANGL), driving Adjusted FCF after distributions to −$3.28B and leverage to 3.7x (vs. 3.1x in Q2).
- Operating revenue growth lagged S&P Global consensus in Q3 (see Estimates Context); terminal throughput fell 3% YoY in the Crude & Products segment, while operating expenses rose YoY in both segments.
- Coverage dipped to 1.3x in Q3 from 1.5x in Q2, reflecting higher distributions and investment cadence; segment opex and integration spending were headwinds despite higher tariffs and incremental volumes.
Transcript
Jeremy Tonet (Managing Director and Research Analyst)
Welcome to the MPLX third quarter 2025 earnings call. My name is Shirley, and I'll be your operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Press star one on your touch-tone phone to enter the queue. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Kristina Kazarian. Kristina, you may begin.
Kristina Kazarian (VP of Finance and Investor Relations)
Thank you, Shirley. Welcome to MPLX's third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. The slides that accompany this call can be found on our website at mplx.com under the investor tab. Joining me on the call today are Maryann Mannen, President and CEO, Chris Hagedorn, CFO, and other members of the executive team. We invite you to read the safe harbor statements on slide two. We will be making forward-looking statements today. Actual results may differ. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are included there, as well as our filings with the SEC. With that, I'll turn the call over to Maryann.
Maryann Mannen (President and CEO)
Thanks, Kristina. Good morning, and thank you for joining our call. I'd like to take a moment to recognize Mike Hennigan. At the end of the year, Mike will be stepping down as our Executive Chairman. Mike's guidance has been tremendously valuable to our board, to me, and our entire leadership team. We thank him for his service as well as all of his contributions. He will be missed. Delivering on our commitment to return capital, MPLX increased its quarterly distribution by 12.5% for the second consecutive year. The increase is supported by our multi-year track record of mid-single-digit growth and reflects conviction in our growth outlook from recent capital deployment. Our growing portfolio is expected to support this level of annual distribution increases over the next couple of years. In the third quarter, MPLX generated adjusted EBITDA of $1.8 billion.
Strong performance through the first nine months has contributed to year-to-date adjusted EBITDA of $5.2 billion, reflecting growth of 4% over the same time frame in the prior year. Distributable cash flows of $1.5 billion, which supported the return of $1.1 billion to unit holders. We are committed to returning capital to unit holders primarily through a secure and growing distribution, but also through unit repurchases, as we believe our equity remains undervalued. MPLX is optimizing the competitive position of its portfolio as we pursue mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth anchored in the Marcellus and Permian basins, advancing our strategic commitments. During the third quarter, MPLX closed on two strategic acquisitions. First, the remaining 55% interest in the Bangle NGL Pipeline System.
Full ownership of Bangle and its expansion opportunities enhance our Permian platform as we connect growing NGL production from the wellhead to MPLX's Gulf Coast Fractionation facilities and export terminal joint venture currently under construction. We are progressing the expansion of Bangle from 250 to 300,000 barrels per day, which we expect to enter service in the second half of 2026. Second, MPLX closed on the acquisition of a Delaware Basin sour gas treating business. Integrating our newly acquired sour gas treating assets with MPLX operations is ongoing. Additionally, we are completing construction of the second amine treating plant at the Titan Complex. This will increase sour gas treating capacity from 150 to over 400 million cubic feet per day, expected by the end of 2026, driving the returns we expect from the acquisition and expansion. The sour gas treating capabilities will allow us to capitalize on additional growth opportunities.
These sour gas treating assets are adjacent and complementary to our existing natural gas system in the Delaware Basin. They expand MPLX's treating and blending operations, attracted to our current and new customers who are increasing crude drilling activity in the lower-cost sour gas window on the eastern edge of the northern Delaware Basin, and the assets increase access to natural gas and NGL volumes. We are advancing our strategic growth objectives in the Permian. Secretariat, our seventh processing plant is expected to be online at the end of 2025, bringing total regional capacity to 1.4 billion cubic feet per day. We fully own the Bangle pipeline system, integral to MPLX's Permian NGL chain, which is expected to add incremental EBITDA in 2026. Construction is progressing on schedule and on budget for the first Gulf Coast Fractionation facility and LPG export terminal.
The location of our LPG dock is advantageous, as it will allow vessels to avoid congestion and reduce fuel consumption, lowering costs for shippers. MPLX will not have direct commodity price exposure, as MPC will purchase the LPG production from the fracs and market globally through its marketing business across the new export terminal, demonstrating the strength of our strategic relationship with MPC. The first frac, export terminal, and pipeline are expected to enter service in 2028, with full run rate in late 2029. Within natural gas, MPLX and its partners announced they will construct the Eiger Express pipeline, having secured firm transportation agreements with investment-grade shippers. Upon completion, expected in mid-2028, the pipeline will transport natural gas from the Permian Basin to the Katy area of Texas.
Eiger will have connectivity to the Traverse natural gas pipeline, which connects supply between Agua Dulce and the Houston area, and will provide shippers optionality and access to multiple premium markets on the Gulf Coast, driven by demand pull for LNG exports. The continued build-out of our Permian to Gulf Coast natural gas system enhances that value chain with additional growth opportunities. Favorable market outlook supports our operations in the Marcellus, Utica, and Permian Basins. MPLX is positioned for long-term natural gas volume growth in these key operating regions, and we expand our integrated value chains and execute our wellhead-to-water strategy. This year, over 90% of MPLX's total investments are being allocated to opportunities within our natural gas and NGL services segment. The progress and execution of our strategic commitments give us conviction in the sustainability of our mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth outlook for 2025 and beyond.
Our approach to growth is structured to deliver mid-teens returns on our investments and mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth. We do this by constructing processing facilities on a just-in-time basis, maximizing the utilization of existing assets, optimizing value chains, and strengthening our strategic partnership with MPC. In the Marcellus, our largest operating region, construction of our Harmon Creek 3 processing plant and fractionation facility aligns with producer drilling plans. This new complex will feature a 300 million cubic feet per day gas processing plant and a 40,000-barrel-per-day deethanizer supported by producer commitments. In the second half of 2026, we anticipate our gas processing capacity in the Northeast will reach 8.1 billion cubic feet per day, and fractionation capacity will reach 800,000 barrels per day, positioning MPLX to handle growing production from the Utica and Marcellus.
As demand for natural gas-powered electricity rises, MPLX is well-positioned to support the development plans of its producer customers. In our crude oil and product logistics segment, we are focused on expanding gathering infrastructure, enhancing butane blending at terminals, growing volumes organically, and pursuing high-return projects to maximize asset utilization. With a strong pipeline of organic opportunities, we are well-positioned to generate resilient cash flows that underpin our commitment to deliver long-term value and return to capital to unit holders. Now, let me turn the call over to Kris to discuss our operational and financial results for the quarter.
Kris Hagedorn (CFO)
Thanks, Maryann. Slide 12 outlines the third quarter operational and financial performance highlights for our crude oil and products logistics segment. Segment-adjusted EBITDA increased $43 million when compared to the third quarter of 2024. The increase was driven by higher rates, partially offset by higher operating expenses. Pipeline volumes were flat, while terminal volumes were down 3% year-over-year. Moving to our natural gas and NGL services segment on slide 13, segment-adjusted EBITDA increased $9 million compared to the third quarter of 2024, as contributions from recently acquired assets and higher volumes were partially offset by higher operating expenses. Gathered volumes increased 3% year-over-year, primarily due to production growth in the Utica. Processing volumes increased 3% year-over-year, primarily from increased production in the Utica and Marcellus. Permian processing volumes increased 9% compared to the second quarter of this year.
Processing volumes in the Utica have increased 24% year-over-year, showing the value of the liquid-rich acreage. Marcellus processing utilization was 95% for the quarter, reflecting robust producer activity in the region. Total fractionation volumes increased 7% year-over-year, primarily due to higher ethane recoveries in the Marcellus and Utica. Moving to our third quarter financial highlights on slide 14, Adjusted EBITDA of $1.8 billion increased 3% from the prior year, while Distributable Cash Flow of $1.5 billion increased 2% over the same time frame. MPLX returned nearly $1 billion to unit holders in distributions and $100 million in unit repurchases. During the quarter, MPLX issued $4.5 billion in senior notes, the proceeds of which were primarily used to fund our acquisition of a Delaware Basin sour gas treating business and to increase cash from the Bangle acquisition and associated debt repayment.
MPLX entered the quarter with a cash balance of $1.8 billion and plans to utilize this cash in alignment with our capital allocation framework. MPLX maintains a solid balance sheet with leverage below our comfort level of four times. Now, let me hand it back to Maryann for some concluding thoughts.
Maryann Mannen (President and CEO)
Thanks, Kris. Our distribution increase of 12.5% announced last week marks the fourth consecutive year of double-digit increases, resulting in annualized base distribution growth of greater than 50% over the past four years. Through prudent capital allocation, cost control, and operational optimization, MPLX has achieved a 7% compound annual growth rate in both adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow over the past four years. Year-to-date, we've returned $3.2 billion to unit holders. As we've stated before, adjusted EBITDA growth at MPLX will not be linear. We anticipate growth in 2026 will exceed that of 2025, supported by throughput growth on existing assets and new assets being placed in service. Our growing portfolio is well-positioned to sustain this level of annual distribution increases over the next couple of years, and we do not expect MPLX's coverage ratio to fall below 1.3x.
In summary, MPLX is well-positioned to capitalize on opportunities that fit our strategic roadmap as we execute our plan targeting mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth. As a strategic asset for Marathon and with the distribution increase, MPLX is expected to provide $2.8 billion annually to MPC through its growing distribution. Our unwavering focus on safety and operational excellence, strategic growth opportunities, and strong financial flexibility enable us to consistently drive cash flow growth. This, in turn, supports our commitment to delivering peer-leading capital returns to unit holders. Now, let me turn the call over to Kristina.
Kristina Kazarian (VP of Finance and Investor Relations)
Thanks, Maryann. As we open the call for your questions, as a courtesy to all participants, we ask that you limit yourself to a question and a follow-up. If time permits, we will re-prompt for additional questions. Shirley, we're ready for questions, please.
Jeremy Tonet (Managing Director and Research Analyst)
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. If you have a question, please press star, then one on your touch-tone phone. If you wish to be removed from the queue, please press star, then two. If you're using a speakerphone, you may pick up the handset first before pressing the numbers. Once again, if you have a question, please press star, then one on your touch-tone phone. Our first question comes from John Mackay with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. You may ask your question.
John Mackay (VP of Equity Research)
Hey, good morning, everyone. Thank you for the time. I wanted to start on the EBITDA growth outlook. You guys have done a bunch of projects, M&A this year. Maryann, I was wondering if you could kind of walk us through how you're thinking about the go-forward growth outlook now for EBITDA, both kind of level and duration, relative to how you were framing up kind of the similar target of mid-single-digit EBITDA growth at the beginning of the year before we had some of these announcements.
Maryann Mannen (President and CEO)
Yeah, thanks, John. Good morning, and thanks for your question. So, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, when we look at our growth rate 2024 to 2025, and then we look at it also from 2025 to 2026, we believe 2025 to 2026 will actually deliver stronger growth than we did 2024 to 2025. As you know, we've also been talking about our EBITDA growth over a three-year period, and when we look at that, it's been roughly 7% for the last few years. We see the ability to continue that as we look into 2026. For right now for those acquisitions and other projects that we put into place.
So maybe let me take a minute and talk about how we see that unfolding to address your question of how did we think about it in the beginning of the year, certainly, versus how we're looking at it now. When we look at 2026, as an example, a couple of things really begin to come online and increase that growth that I was referring to. So, as you know, we mentioned Bangle. The incremental 55% ownership will now be additive to 2026 EBITDA targets. As I mentioned, Secretariat will come online at the end of this year, and that ramp-up into 2026 will again deliver incremental EBITDA throughout 2026. We'll also have the full rate of PREACMUS II that came online in the third quarter of 2024. And so we'll have full ramp-up as we head into 2026.
And then the sour gas investment that we made, as you know, will reach full run rate by the end of 2026 as TITAN, the next phase of the TITAN treatment plant, comes online. So we'll see that incremental EBITDA coming from TITAN as well. And then there's a few other projects, as you know. And then heading into 2027. We obviously have full rate for TITAN, consistent with the way that we've shared with you as we talked about the EBITDA potential on that transaction. And then also Eiger Pipeline, as an example, another project that we just announced that will bring EBITDA into 2027. I'll take you actually to 2028 and 2029 just for a moment.
But in 2028, we'll have the first frac in the LPG Export Terminal come online, and then obviously heading into full run rate as the second one comes online in 2029 as well. So those projects, either organic or those acquisitions, I think support our ability to continue to grow that mid-single-digit growth. Let me pause there, John, and see if I've answered your question.
John Mackay (VP of Equity Research)
No, thank you. That was great. I appreciate the color. Maybe just as a second question from my side, I would love to hear a little bit more about the power LOI, maybe just steps to converting that, how we think about the opportunity set for you, returns, et cetera?
Maryann Mannen (President and CEO)
Yeah, thank you for that. As you saw, we issued that, excuse me, press release this morning and appreciated it. It is an LOI in this early stage. One, we think the opportunity with MPC is important, critically important for us as we evaluate the opportunity set around data centers and AI. We think for MPC, this obviously creates in basin demand. And then ultimately, at what we would consider to be a very low-cost or no-cost transaction here in this early evaluation. We will provide, excuse me, we will provide gas. And then in return, we receive lower-cost reliable power, which in fact will get passed on to our producer customers. But time-wise, this is certainly not a 2026 project. It'll be beyond 2026, John.
John Mackay (VP of Equity Research)
I appreciate the time. Thank you.
Maryann Mannen (President and CEO)
Thank you.
Kristina Kazarian (VP of Finance and Investor Relations)
Thank you. Our next question comes from Manav Gupta with UBS. Your line is open. You may ask your question.
Manav Gupta (Executive Director)
I would like to start by saying I'm a big fan of Mike Hennigan, but he has left the company in very good hands, so congratulations, Maryann. My first question to you is, can you elaborate a little more on the Permian sour gas opportunity, and it's my understanding you do not need to permit more AGI wells to run this asset at full capacity because that's where the gating factor is. If you could talk a little bit about those things.
Maryann Mannen (President and CEO)
Thank you for your question, and we agree with you as it relates to Mike Hennigan. So on the Permian sour gas opportunity, as we shared, we've got about $500 million of incremental capital that gets us to all of the investment economics that we shared. That includes getting the treatment, the amine treating Titan facility, as we call it, from 150 to 400 and the next AGI well. There is no other incremental asset gas injection well necessary to meet the economics on the project as we have outlined for you so far.
Manav Gupta (Executive Director)
Perfect. My quick follow-up here is, as you evaluate all these data center opportunities, would there be more letters of intent of similar nature and how you're seeing that pipeline? And then the bigger question is, some of your peers have said this opportunity set is so big that we are even open to generating and selling electricity using our natural gas. Is that something which MPLX could be open to if the right opportunity arises, or you are more comfortable being the supplier of natural gas but not the generator of electricity, if you could talk about that?
Maryann Mannen (President and CEO)
Yes, of course. Thanks for the question. As you know, when we look at the Northeast, we are handling, touching 10% of U.S. natural gas consumption every day. So our ability to continue to evaluate where in this opportunity set that we can best support our producer customers is a place that we are spending time evaluating, et cetera. Again, this Mara is the first step for us as we continue to evaluate those opportunities. I'm going to pass it to Greg, who's been spending quite a bit of time looking at how and where MPLX can continue to pursue opportunities.
Greg Floerke (EVP and COO)
It's a great question. The first, obviously, as Maryann said, being a large player in the midstream business and touching a lot of gas, we aggregate gas at our processing plants, similar to interstate pipelines and some of the other projects you've seen. So we certainly have the ability to co-locate, similar to the SMR project where we have a co-located facility and we can sell gas and buy power and increase reliability. In terms of generating the power, the Solar Turbines and the Caterpillar reciprocating engines that constitute most of the prime movers for generation behind the meter are assets that we deploy by the hundreds across our system.
So we know how to install, operate, and maintain these units running all of our gas compression. And so we have that capability. On the refining side of Marathon, we actually self-generate power at some of the refineries. So we have the capability, but it's a separate business case in terms of moving from providing gas and processing to move into the power generation business. So that's something that we'll keep all options open and continue to look at, talk to a lot of people, and see where that goes, if anywhere.
Manav Gupta (Executive Director)
Thank you so much for taking my questions.
Maryann Mannen (President and CEO)
You're welcome. Thank you.
Kristina Kazarian (VP of Finance and Investor Relations)
Thank you. Join us. Question comes from Theresa Chen with Barclays. Your line is open. You may ask your question.
Theresa Chen (Senior Analyst in Midstream and Refining Equity Research)
Thank you. Going back to the Titan Complex and the early days of integration after the recent close, as you continue your investment here in the build-out, has there been any shift in commercial activity with your customers, any incremental interest in your services now that you have this set of assets within your portfolio?
Maryann Mannen (President and CEO)
Good morning, Theresa. Thanks for the question. I would tell you integration with our sour gas acquisition, which we refer to as Northwind, has gone very well as we exited the quarter, roughly processing at 150. You may have also heard, and we'll echo some of the comments that those producer customers who we are working for in the region have commented on. I think they're pleased with the fact that MPLX now owns this asset. We're working diligently. They were customers of ours in that basin prior, and this adds more opportunity for us to continue to work closely with those key customers. One of the other things that we talked about when we were together the last time was the potential for processing. Some of our contracts are about two to three years.
They're third-party, and as we look at the ability to accelerate growth in that region, being able to take on incremental processing would be a place that we would look to grow beyond that integration. The other thing that I would mention as we continue to look at the project, and as I shared with John earlier, passing the look at how EBITDA will grow, we expect to be complete so that by the end of 2026, as we head into EBITDA generation, those projects will be completed and we'll be able to see the full benefit supporting our customers in the basin. I'll look to Greg to see if there's anything else that he wants to add because he's been overseeing the strength of that integration.
Greg Floerke (EVP and COO)
Thanks, Maryann. We've been spending most of the time towards the last few weeks of the quarter and then into early first quarter integrating the assets and working with producers to ramp up volume. We're integrating people into our existing team in West Texas, and that's going very well. We're also integrating systems: accounting systems, operating systems, and trying to integrate the systems together. We've got great feedback from our customers. We're meeting with our customers. I think they're excited about our ownership and operation of the system and moving to the next level as we continue to deploy the assets. Titan One train in the commissioning process late in the quarter and into the prior month, and the third train of Titan One, and then Titan Two civil and swell work underway for that plant to come into service latter part of 2026.
Theresa Chen (Senior Analyst in Midstream and Refining Equity Research)
Thank you. And then related to the LOI with Mara, Maryann, going back to your comments about how low or no cost it's going to be. Can you just frame that up in terms of what would be the nature of any potential CapEx related to this? And if there's not so much of a CapEx or economic moat, what positioned you to win this agreement? And what would position MPLX in your regions of service, given the competition out there, to win incremental agreements? And with this transaction specifically, what are the next steps?
Maryann Mannen (President and CEO)
Yeah, thanks, Theresa. Look, I think one of the benefits that we see from this transaction is the potential for in basin demand, right? The growth on that in basin demand. So essentially, the way that this LOI will continue to be structured is we will provide gas, I like to say, at the tailpipe of our plants. And then in return, so to speak, we will have the ability to have lower cost, more reliable power to provide to our producer customers. So again, when I say low or no cost, there really isn't anything that we need to do in order to facilitate that transaction. In terms of the opportunities there, we're continuing to evaluate how that might go forward. But as we stand right now, this LOI, we think, has the potential to increase in basin demand.
Theresa Chen (Senior Analyst in Midstream and Refining Equity Research)
Thank you so much.
Maryann Mannen (President and CEO)
You're welcome. Thank you.
Kristina Kazarian (VP of Finance and Investor Relations)
Thank you. Our next question comes from Burke Sansiviero with Wolfe Research. Your line is open. You may ask your question.
Burke Sansiviero (Equity Research Senior Associate)
Hi, good morning. Just looking at slide nine, can you please walk through some of your assumptions for in-basin demand growth and incremental takeaway of capacity to underwrite the 10% Marcellus and Utica gas growth through 2030? Mainly curious if you expect new greenfield pipelines to be built out of Appalachia? Thank you.
Greg Floerke (EVP and COO)
This is Greg. I'll speak to that. We continue to grow in the Marcellus and the Utica, primarily the Marcellus through incremental plant construction. As you see, our Harmon Creek 3 plant in Washington County, PA, is in construction and supported by customer contracts. We also have seen growth over the last 12 to 18 months in the Utica as we fill existing capacity in that system that was built years ago. And as rigs moved away, capacity freed up, but we're filling that capacity. We're at over 70% utilization in the Utica now, 95%, a new high in Marcellus. In spite of being our largest area in processing over 7 Bcf a day of gas, of rich gas, and liquids that come with that.
So our customers, producer customers who own the residue gas at the back of our plants, have commitments and are finding the capacity to exit the basin. There's also in-basin demand growth, both for power generation, both coal-to-gas switching at existing power plants and then new plants, as well as behind the meter, whether data center or other power generation. So I think there's in-basin demand growth. Obviously, MVP coming online was a big adder to takeaway capacity, and we continue to see increases in capacity announced on that system, particularly as the downstream pipeline system is debottlenecked. So we feel that our producers, with the positions they have, both in firm capacity and capacity that opens up that maybe other producers don't use, have growth, the ability to continue to grow even in the Marcellus where the volumes are high and utilization's high.
Burke Sansiviero (Equity Research Senior Associate)
Thank you. Just one from my side, as you continue to build out the Permian position, do you have visibility on filling the full 300,000 barrels per day on Bangle with NGLs from your own plants?
Greg Floerke (EVP and COO)
Yeah, we have visibility to. With the seventh, we'll have six plants with the seventh plant with Secretariat coming online and other production. From third parties connected to Bangle. We're confident in filling the capacity on that pipeline.
Burke Sansiviero (Equity Research Senior Associate)
Thank you.
Maryann Mannen (President and CEO)
You're welcome. Thank you.
Kristina Kazarian (VP of Finance and Investor Relations)
Thank you. And as a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, press star one. Our next question comes from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan. Your line is open. You may ask your question.
Jeremy Tonet (Managing Director and Research Analyst)
Hi, good morning.
Maryann Mannen (President and CEO)
Jeremy, how are you?
Jeremy Tonet (Managing Director and Research Analyst)
Good. Just as I think about, I guess, the long-term EBITDA growth. If we're going to be in the mid-single-digit growth on a multi-year basis, would organic initiatives be sufficient to underpin that, or would there need to be a certain amount of inorganic initiatives as well to complement that to mid-single digits or higher? Thank you.
Maryann Mannen (President and CEO)
Jeremy, you were cutting out a little bit, but I think your question was, do we need M&A and organic growth opportunities to meet mid-single digit over the longer period of time? I think that's what your question was. So let me try to address that. As you've seen over the next couple of years, tried to lay out how we see that EBITDA coming to fruition. But certainly, when we look at organic opportunities, those that fit our strategic lens, etc., we're executing on those, and gave you a few examples. But we also see the opportunity, again, assuming that those M&A opportunities would meet our strategic rationale, provide us that mid-single digit growth, and give us the mid-teens returns, we do see opportunities for incremental M&A to continue to build out mid-single digit growth. I hope that was your question, Jeremy.
Jeremy Tonet (Managing Director and Research Analyst)
So it sounds like organic alone wouldn't get to mid-single digit. There would need to be acquisitions to get there over a multi-year period.
Maryann Mannen (President and CEO)
Yeah, I think that's fair. When you look at the size of our EBITDA, look at if I can do rough math for you, just a $7 billion EBITDA, we're approaching $500 million worth of growth. We've shared with you the opportunity set in NatGas and NGL, and we'll continue to focus our resources in the Permian. We will also concentrate on the base business. We never lose focus on the base business, including JVs and opportunities there as well, but given the size of that EBITDA growth, likely that we will see inorganic opportunities as well.
Jeremy Tonet (Managing Director and Research Analyst)
That's helpful.
Kris Hagedorn (CFO)
Jeremy, this is Kris. I might just add to that as well, though. One thing I do want to note is you've heard about all of these acquisitions we've recently done. This also provides additional growth opportunities of new organic projects for optimization and growth. So that backlog of what I would call capital projects is going to continue to grow. So we have a backlog looking into 2026, 2027, as we sit today, 2028. As Greg and Shawn continue to see these assets come online, they're also going to identify more opportunities for more organic projects as we progress.
Jeremy Tonet (Managing Director and Research Analyst)
That's helpful. Thanks, and if I could get one last one in, just as far as the distribution growth policy, how should we think about that over time, post the two 12.5% raises recently here?
Maryann Mannen (President and CEO)
Yes, thanks, Jeremy. So as I mentioned, we look at a couple of years and see a path to 12.5% distribution growth for the next couple of years. That's how we're seeing it today. And beyond that, we'll continue to evaluate. But for the next couple of years, in addition to 2024 and 2025, that's how we see 12.5% distribution growth.
Jeremy Tonet (Managing Director and Research Analyst)
Great. Thank you very much.
Maryann Mannen (President and CEO)
You're welcome. Thank you.
Kristina Kazarian (VP of Finance and Investor Relations)
Thank you. Our final question comes from Michael Blum with Wells Fargo. Your line is open. You may ask your question.
Michael Blum (Managing Director)
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Just wanted to go back to a prior comment made about evaluating potentially bringing power to a data center project since you do operate. A lot of you have a lot of experience operating those anyway. Is that something that you're actively evaluating and in discussions with potential customers, or just more something that's sort of a longer-term potential item?
Greg Floerke (EVP and COO)
Yeah. No intent to mention that we're actively evaluating. It really is that we have capability and optionality if it made sense in the future.
Michael Blum (Managing Director)
Okay, perfect. Thank you. And then I just wanted to ask high-level, you could refresh us a little bit. I think there's a view out there that crude oil prices are going to be lower for some period of time here. So can you just discuss how that could impact your logistics segment, either positively or negatively? Thanks.
Shawn Lyon (Senior VP of Logistics and Storage)
Hey, this is Shawn. Hey, just on the crude oil and product logistics side of the business, if you look at our volumes continue to be strong. Really in all areas. And really, that is anchored and really part of our partnership with Marathon Petroleum. And that's where the two together and that partnership continues to give us a really strong foundation. But I think as we look out, it's strong. We continue to see strong demand or strong throughput.
Kris Hagedorn (CFO)
Yeah, and Michael, this is Kris. What I might add to that, you'll remember that on the crude oil and products logistics side of the business, those contracts with Marathon have significant minimum volume commitments, and they're also capacity type arrangements. So if you go back all the way to kind of the COVID year, you'll remember they didn't really see that big of a dip in what would be probably the most extreme, hopefully, that we ever see when it comes to EBITDA from that segment. So that segment is very well protected.
Michael Blum (Managing Director)
Great. Thank you.
Greg Floerke (EVP and COO)
I would add, this is Greg. I would add that. From a producer standpoint, we're still seeing strong demand for whether it be gas, NGLs, or crude oil. We're not seeing changes in plans in terms of producer activity.
Kristina Kazarian (VP of Finance and Investor Relations)
All right, operator. Do we have any other questions today?
Operator (participant)
At this time, I'm showing no further questions.
Kristina Kazarian (VP of Finance and Investor Relations)
Great. With that. Should you have more questions or would you like clarifications on the topics discussed this morning, please feel free to reach out. Members of our investor relations team will be available to take your calls. Thank you so much for joining us today.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. That does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation. At this time, you may disconnect your line.