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    MONOLITHIC POWER SYSTEMS (MPWR)

    MPWR Q2 2025: Record sales, short lead times raise visibility concerns

    Reported on Aug 1, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$711.24Last close (Jul 31, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$740.00Open (Aug 1, 2025)
    Price Change
    $28.76(+4.04%)
    • Robust demand across diversified end markets: The Q&A highlighted strong sequential growth in enterprise data, automotive, and ASIC-related segments, supporting a record revenue level in Q2 2025.
    • Capacity expansion and supply chain diversification: Management emphasized the ability to support $4B of annual revenue while targeting a 50% balance of capacity outside China, which mitigates supply chain risks and supports ongoing revenue growth.
    • Emerging high-value product segments: Comments on the ramp of ASIC programs and investments in evolving high-voltage solutions (e.g., 48V/800V systems) along with modules and data converters point to significant long-term growth opportunities.
    • Short-term Ordering & Visibility Concerns: The management highlighted that orders are received on extremely short lead times with no significant backlog beyond two quarters, creating uncertainty about sustaining future revenue levels.
    • Cyclical and Boom-Bust Dynamics in Storage & Compute: Caution was expressed regarding the storage and compute segment due to its historical boom-and-bust cycles, which may result in volatile demand and complicate revenue forecasts.
    • Uncertainty Around ASIC/Enterprise Data Revenue Contribution: Although the company is ramping up on AI ASIC initiatives in the enterprise data segment, there remains ambiguity over the pace and scale of revenue contribution, adding risk regarding customer concentration and future earnings.
    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Gross Margin

    Q2 2025

    Expected to tick down by about 20 basis points

    N/A

    no prior guidance

    Segment Performance

    Q2 2025

    Variance of plus/minus 5 percentage points

    N/A

    no prior guidance

    Tariffs and Pricing

    Q2 2025

    No direct or indirect impacts from tariffs or pricing

    N/A

    no prior guidance

    Gross Margin Expansion

    Q2 2025

    Room for gross margin expansion with no price increase

    N/A

    no prior guidance

    Revenue Guidance

    Q3 2025

    N/A

    8% sequential growth at the midpoint

    no prior guidance

    Enterprise Data Segment

    Q3 2025

    N/A

    Sequential growth of 20% to 30%

    no prior guidance

    Automotive Segment (Quarterly)

    Q3 2025

    N/A

    Growth expected to pick up in Q3 (and in Q4) due to new content ramps

    no prior guidance

    Automotive Segment (Full-Year)

    FY 2025

    N/A

    Full-year growth expected between 40% to 50%

    no prior guidance

    Capacity & Supply Chain

    FY 2025

    N/A

    Capacity to support $4 billion in annual revenue with 50% of that capacity outside of China

    no prior guidance

    Long-Term Growth Outlook

    2026

    N/A

    Targets 10% to 15% outperformance vs peers, implying a potential growth rate close to 20%

    no prior guidance

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Enterprise Data Growth

    Q4 2024 discussions described a "flattish" outlook with back‐half weighting, driven by AI-related opportunities and design wins ( ), while Q1 2025 emphasized strong demand with 38% QoQ growth and multiple design wins ( ).

    Q2 2025 highlights a forecast of 20–30% sequential growth driven by AI ASIC programs and design wins, albeit with caution due to short lead times ( ).

    Continued optimism with increasing AI influence but tempered by uncertainty in ramp timing.

    Revenue Uncertainty

    Q4 2024 noted volatility with blurred CPU/GPU lines and difficulty predicting orders ( ); Q1 2025 focused on uncertain ramp timing and a range of outcomes ( ).

    Q2 2025 maintains concerns over short lead times, atypical ordering patterns, and limited long-term backlog visibility ( ).

    Consistent caution, with uncertainty persisting across quarters due to dynamic market conditions.

    Automotive Sector Expansion and EV Market Opportunities

    Q4 2024 stressed long design cycles, EV conversions (e.g. 48V/800V) and geographic product expansion ( ); Q1 2025 reported 13% sequential automotive growth and transitions in EV battery systems ( ).

    Q2 2025 mentioned a mid-year flattening with expectations of renewed growth in Q3/Q4, along with long-term opportunities in advanced automotive technologies ( ).

    Ongoing strong long-term potential with short-term fluctuations and new content ramps expected later.

    ASIC Initiatives and Design Wins

    Q4 2024 highlighted numerous design wins among hyperscalers with uncertain ramp-up timing ( ); Q1 2025 reiterated extensive design wins and stable margin profiles despite timing challenges ( ).

    Q2 2025 continues to report multiple design wins in ASIC-based AI products while acknowledging ramp-up challenges of plus/minus six to twelve months ( ).

    Consistent focus on innovative design wins with ongoing challenges in ramp-up timing.

    Supply Chain Diversification and Capacity Expansion Outside China

    Q4 2024 emphasized investments in global supply chain stability through diversification ( ); Q1 2025 discussed expanding fab capacities outside China with a “China for China” strategy ( ).

    Q2 2025 now reports that capacity supporting $4 billion of revenue is balanced with 50% outside China, alongside ongoing supplier qualifications ( ).

    Increasingly robust global diversification that strengthens supply chain resilience.

    Emerging High-Value Product Segments

    Q4 2024 offered detailed commentary on segments such as silicon carbide, data converters, DSP audio, and battery management as multi‐billion-dollar opportunities ( ); Q1 2025 had only indirect references to innovation in areas like data center power solutions ( ).

    Q2 2025 focuses on high-voltage solutions (48V/800V), battery management, and data converters, while DSP audio is not mentioned ( ).

    A re-emerging theme with deeper emphasis on certain segments; some areas (DSP audio) see reduced mention.

    Cyclical Dynamics in Storage & Compute Segments

    Q1 2025 noted an atypical seasonal uplift with steady growth in DDR5 and memory-led segments ( ); Q4 2024 did not explicitly address cyclical dynamics in these segments ( ).

    Q2 2025 reports strong Q2 performance yet expresses caution for the back half of the year due to historical boom-bust cycles ( ).

    Recurring topic with a shift toward increased caution in later quarters compared to a more balanced view earlier.

    Revenue Visibility, Order Backlog, and Inventory Management Concerns

    Q4 2024 pointed to low inventory levels and uncertainty in order timing, though order backlog supported Q1 outlook ( ); Q1 2025 described very lean inventory and short lead times affecting visibility ( ).

    Q2 2025 continues to emphasize short lead times and lean channel inventories with no significant backlog buildup, underscoring ongoing operational caution ( ).

    Stability in operational concerns with consistent focus on managing lean inventories and short-term visibility challenges.

    Gross Margin Pressure with Reduced Emphasis

    Q1 2025 mentioned a modest expected 20 basis-point margin decline attributed to mix effects and volume dynamics ( ); Q4 2024 lacked detailed commentary on margin pressure.

    Q2 2025 did not discuss gross margin pressure.

    Reduced emphasis on margin pressure, suggesting a shift in focus from near-term margin concerns to growth drivers.

    Ambiguity in Growth Guidance and AI Revenue Attribution

    Q4 2024 acknowledged a "flattish" revenue outlook with blurred AI versus non-AI revenue and uncertainty in timing ( ); Q1 2025 provided a narrower guidance range with clearer albeit still cautious AI revenue potential ( ).

    Q2 2025 shows continued ambiguity with short lead times limiting clear guidance while AI revenue remains integrated within overall enterprise data, complicating clear attribution ( ).

    Persistent ambiguity with slight improvement noted in Q1 but reverting to cautious, less-defined guidance in Q2.

    Global Diversification of Product Portfolio and Geographic Footprint

    Q4 2024 stressed diversification of end-market applications and a global supply chain for stability ( ); Q1 2025 highlighted diversified market strategies, including localized manufacturing in the U.S., China, and Europe ( ).

    Q2 2025 reinforces a diversified product portfolio with innovations in system-level solutions and emphasizes that 50% of manufacturing capacity is now outside China ( ).

    Consistent emphasis and gradual strengthening of global diversification in both product portfolio and geographic footprint.

    1. Enterprise Data SAM
      Q: Update on enterprise data SAM?
      A: Management reaffirmed the $4B SAM, noting robust AI ASIC engagements and multiple customer design wins, with confidence in the long-term growth trajectory.

    2. Automotive Outlook
      Q: How will automotive growth perform?
      A: Management expects automotive to stabilize midyear before ramping up in Q3 and Q4, driven by new content opportunities for vehicles.

    3. Order Patterns
      Q: Clarify short lead times and book-to-bill?
      A: Management explained that short lead times create dynamic, near-term ordering patterns, while capacity is robust enough to support $4B revenue with a balanced global supply strategy.

    4. ASIC Sourcing
      Q: Are ASIC programs single or dual sourced?
      A: Management indicated that ASIC platforms are variably sourced—some single, some dual—depending on customer needs and supply chain resilience.

    5. Storage Caution
      Q: Concerns in storage and compute segment?
      A: Management expressed caution over storage and compute due to atypical seasonal demand and historical boom-bust cycles, despite better-than-expected Q2 results.

    Research analysts covering MONOLITHIC POWER SYSTEMS.