MP
MONOLITHIC POWER SYSTEMS INC (MPWR)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 2025 was a record quarter: revenue $737.18M (+10.9% q/q, +18.9% y/y), non-GAAP EPS $4.73; GAAP EPS $3.71. Non-GAAP gross margin held at 55.5% and GAAP operating margin was 26.5% .
- Results beat S&P Global consensus: revenue $737.18M vs. $722.14M*, and non-GAAP EPS $4.73 vs. $4.64*; both better than expected, driven by stronger Enterprise Data (AI power) and broad-based y/y growth across all end markets . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Q4 2025 guidance is roughly in line with Street: revenue $730–$750M vs. $741.69M* consensus midpoint; gross margin guide steady at ~55% (GAAP 54.9–55.5%; non-GAAP 55.2–55.8%) . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Key drivers: sequential strength in Enterprise Data (+33% q/q on AI applications), Consumer (+21% q/q), Industrial (+18% q/q); Storage & Computing declined 4.5% q/q on weaker notebooks; inventories well managed with days of inventory down to 139 (current-quarter basis) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Enterprise Data accelerated on AI: $191.5M, +33% q/q and +3.8% y/y; management cited “layering of additional customers” and AI power solutions as the catalyst .
- Broad-based y/y growth: all six end markets grew y/y; Automotive +36.1% y/y with an additional Tier 1 ADAS design win; first full BMS design win on a robotics platform underscores shift to solutions .
- Strong cash generation and balance sheet: operating cash flow $239.3M; cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments $1,269.5M; DIO fell to 139 days (current-quarter basis) vs. 150 in Q2 .
What Went Wrong
- Storage & Computing down sequentially (-4.5% q/q) driven by lower notebook power solutions despite strong y/y growth; mix tempered overall q/q momentum .
- Gross margin expansion elusive near term; management reiterated margins likely remain mid-55% +/- 20–30 bps given short-dated orders and limited backlog visibility .
- Visibility remains limited (3–4 months) with short lead times and constrained ability to steer mix; channel inventory lean but bookings predictability remains a watch item .
Financial Results
Headline P&L versus Prior Periods
Results vs. S&P Global Consensus (Q3 2025)
Segment Revenue Breakdown
Selected KPIs and Balance Sheet
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Our results demonstrate our continued success in transforming from a chip-only, semiconductor supplier to a full service, silicon-based solutions provider.” – CEO Michael Hsing .
- “We’re seeing a layering of additional customers [in Enterprise Data]…providing momentum as we look ahead into the early part of next year.” – CFO Bernie Blegen .
- On AI mix and focus: “Business is business…we engage with the large companies and the small companies…we want to demonstrate that this is the best technology.” – CEO Michael Hsing .
- On gross margins: “For the foreseeable future…we’re going to be in…mid-55%” given limited backlog and short-dated orders – CFO Bernie Blegen .
Q&A Highlights
- Enterprise Data: sequential outperformance driven by AI power demand; more customers being layered in; management avoided sizing far-out HVDC opportunity; pricing stable without sustained trend changes .
- Margins: GM expected to remain mid-55% near term due to short visibility and limited ability to optimize mix; longer-term solution automation could help yields and margins .
- Auto roadmap: ADAS content expanding; 48V and zonal architectures ramp starting 2026; BMS/traction inverter opportunities are more 2027+ .
- Inventory/Channel health: channel inventory days unchanged q/q and lean; internal DIO improved on current-quarter basis; DSO rose to 30 days .
- Timelines: Robotics BMS design win is strategic; revenue impact starts 2026; sets stage for broader solution wins .
Estimates Context
- Q3 2025: Revenue $737.18M vs. S&P Global consensus $722.14M*; primary EPS $4.73 vs. $4.64* – both beats . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Q4 2025: Company revenue guidance $730–$750M bracketed around S&P Global consensus $741.69M* (midpoint ~$740M), implying roughly in-line top-line outlook . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Broad-based y/y growth with Enterprise Data AI power the key sequential driver; diversified end-market strength reduces reliance on any single program .
- The quarter delivered clean beats on revenue and EPS vs. consensus; Q4 revenue guide is essentially in line, suggesting continuity rather than a re-acceleration into year-end . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Margins remain resilient but capped near-term in the mid-55% GM range due to short-cycle ordering and limited backlog; watch for elongation of visibility as a pre-condition for GM expansion .
- Auto content continues to build (ADAS now; 48V/zonal next year; BMS/traction inverter further out), creating a multi-year layering of growth vectors beyond AI data center .
- Inventory discipline improved (current-quarter DIO down to 139 days) with lean channel inventories, supporting the quality of demand and limiting risk of near-term digestion .
- Strategic pivot to solutions (modules, system-level) is gaining traction (e.g., robotics BMS), which can deepen moats and potentially support margins over time as automation scales .
- Legal overhang: a patent infringement suit was filed by Reed Semiconductor (Oct 6); while no financial impact noted, it is a background risk to monitor .
Values retrieved from S&P Global where indicated by an asterisk (*).