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MI

Marqeta, Inc. (MQ)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 delivered accelerating growth: Net Revenue $163.3M (+28% YoY), Gross Profit $114.6M (+27% YoY), TPV $98.0B (+33% YoY); Adjusted EBITDA hit a record $30.3M (19% margin) .
  • Revenue and EPS beat Wall Street: Revenue beat by ~$14.9M versus consensus $148.4M*, and diluted EPS of -$0.01 improved versus consensus -$0.018*; management raised Q4 and FY25 guidance on the back of broad-based strength (BNPL, on-demand delivery, Europe) .
  • Guidance raised: Q4 Net Revenue growth 22–24%, Gross Profit growth 17–19%, Adj. EBITDA margin 15–16%; FY25 Net Revenue ~22%, Gross Profit ~23%, Adj. EBITDA margin ~17% .
  • Key drivers and catalysts: Pay-anywhere card growth (Visa Flexible Credential) and Europe TPV >100% YoY; TransactPay integration expanded program management and bank partnerships (Cross River live; Coastal integration) .
  • Watch Q4 headwinds: Network incentive accounting drag (~5.5 pts), one large customer renewal (~2 pts headwind), and Q3 nonrecurring fee recoveries (~2.5 pts) not repeating; overall tone confident on scale, profitability, and pipeline .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “Q3 was a very strong quarter, with performance significantly outpacing our expectations,” driven by accelerating TPV (+33%) and slightly higher take rates; Adjusted EBITDA $30M, 19% margin .
  • BNPL/pay-anywhere cards and Visa Flexible Credential adoption accelerated; Europe TPV grew >100% YoY; non-Block TPV grew 2.5x faster than Block .
  • TransactPay closed 7/31, enabling full program management in UK/EU and catalyzing enterprise pipeline; one top expense management customer expanded into Europe on Marqeta .

What Went Wrong

  • Q4 Gross Profit growth to slow ~9 pts vs Q3, mainly from network incentives accounting drag (~5.5 pts), renewal headwind (~2 pts), and nonrecurring fee recoveries (~2.5 pts) not repeating .
  • GAAP net loss remained (-$3.6M), including $4.3M nonrecurring litigation expense, highlighting ongoing GAAP profitability gap despite strong Adjusted EBITDA .
  • Management flagged Cash App diversifying new issuance to another processor in 2026, implying ~2 pts drag on growth next year (watch medium-term concentration risk normalization) .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Net Revenue ($USD Millions)$139.1 $150.4 $163.3
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$98.7 $104.1 $114.6
Gross Margin (%)71% 69% 70%
GAAP Net (Loss) Income ($USD Millions)-$8.26 -$0.65 -$3.62
Diluted EPS ($USD)-$0.02 $0.00 -$0.01
KPIsQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Total Processing Volume (TPV) ($USD Millions)$84,472 $91,386 $97,962
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$20.1 $28.5 $30.3
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)14% 19% 19%
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($USD Millions)$830.9 $732.7 $747.2
Restricted Cash ($USD Millions)$8.5 $8.5 $234.5 (EMI safeguarding)
Block net revenue concentration (%)——44% (down ~2 pts vs Q2)
Estimates vs ActualsQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue Actual ($USD Millions)$139.1 $150.4 $163.3
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Millions)135.3*140.2*148.4*
Diluted EPS Actual ($USD)-$0.02 $0.00 -$0.01
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($USD)-0.038*-0.031*-0.018*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Net Revenue GrowthQ4 2025Not disclosed last quarter22%–24% Raised (≥+5 pts vs prior commentary)
Gross Profit GrowthQ4 2025Not disclosed last quarter17%–19% Raised (≥+5 pts vs prior commentary)
Adjusted EBITDA MarginQ4 2025Not disclosed last quarter15%–16% Raised (+2 pts vs prior commentary)
Net Revenue GrowthFY 202517%–18% ~22% Raised
Gross Profit GrowthFY 202518%–19% ~23% Raised
Adjusted EBITDA MarginFY 202514%–15% ~17% Raised

Q4 headwind drivers: network incentives accounting drag (~5.5 pts), renewal headwind (~2 pts), and nonrecurring fee recoveries in Q3 (~2.5 pts) not repeating .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 and Q1)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
BNPL & Visa Flexible CredentialEnabled KlarnaOne card; VFC highlighted in Q2 VFC adoption expanding; pay-anywhere cards driving outsized TPV growth Accelerating
Europe expansion & TransactPayTransactPay acquisition closed; Europe TPV doubling Europe TPV >100% YoY; program management parity with N. America; Griffin Bank live Sustained high growth
Bank partners (supply)—Cross River live; Coastal integration; more EU bank partners planned Expanding
Value-added servicesPerpay/Bitpanda migrations in Q1 showed platform breadth Tokenization, risk products growing; white-label app launched; embedded finance focus Expanding
Customer renewals—Two large renewals: one in effect Q4 (~2 pts headwind), second early 2026 Near-term headwind
Network incentives accountingPolicy revised in Q2; contributed 8.6 pts to GP growth in Q2 Q3 GP headwind ~1.4 pts; Q4 drag ~5.5 pts Drag intensifies in Q4
Block concentration—Block net revenue share 44%, down ~2 pts QoQ; non-Block growth >10 pts higher Diversifying
Cash App issuance—Cash App to diversify new issuance; ~2 pts drag to 2026 growth 2026 headwind risk

Management Commentary

  • “Q3 TPV growth of 33%… another demonstration of our ability to grow at scale,” with non-Block TPV growing 2.5x faster than Block, and Europe >100% growth .
  • “We were the first to support the Visa Flexible Credential in the U.S.,” enabling pay-anywhere cards; Klarna expanding to 15 new markets, with strong performance post-migration .
  • “TransactPay… drove significant customer interest… enabling a complete offering in the UK and EU,” unlocking enterprise pipeline and parity with North America .
  • “We now expect Q4 net revenue and gross profit growth to be at least five points higher than… last quarter,” despite expected accounting and renewal headwinds .
  • “We ended the quarter with a little over $830 million of cash and short-term investments… share repurchased 3.2M shares at $6.12; YTD 64.6M at $4.53” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Pipeline/new programs: Growth driven by existing customers launching new programs and geographies; “new cohort” programs (since 2024) expected to contribute >$40M revenue in 2025 .
  • Klarna/VFC: 15 new EU markets following migration of ~5M cards across 3 countries; yields lower in Europe but healthy; Apple Pay applicability noted .
  • Europe sustainability: International TPV is high-teens % of TPV (+5 pts YoY); Europe growth >100% likely to remain faster than company average, may moderate then re-accelerate as programs scale .
  • Renewals and Cash App: One renewal in Q4 (~2 pts headwind), second in early 2026; Cash App diversifying new issuance (~2 pts drag to 2026 growth) .
  • Bank partners & AmEx: Cross River live; Coastal in 2026; opportunities with American Express integration nearly complete .
  • Value-added services: Tokenization and risk products growing; white-label app for embedded finance customers broadens solution set .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 Revenue beat by ~$14.9M: Actual $163.3M vs consensus $148.4M*; EPS improved vs consensus: diluted EPS -$0.01 vs Primary EPS consensus mean -$0.018* .
  • Trajectory: Q1 actual revenue $139.1M vs consensus $135.3M*; Q2 $150.4M vs $140.2M*; consistent top-line beats as TPV accelerated and take rates modestly improved .
  • Implications: Street models likely need to raise Q4/FY25 revenue, GP, and EBITDA assumptions, but incorporate discrete Q4 drags: network incentives accounting (-~5.5 pts GP growth), renewal (-~2 pts), and absence of Q3 unusual fee recoveries (-~2.5 pts) .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Revenue momentum broad-based and accelerating; BNPL/pay-anywhere, on-demand delivery, and Europe are key growth engines, with non-Block outpacing Block .
  • Mix and monetization improving: Slightly higher net revenue and gross profit take rates in Q3; TransactPay lifts European take rates over time via program management and value-added services .
  • Near-term caution in Q4: Expect GP growth deceleration from accounting drag (~5.5 pts), a renewal (~2 pts), and nonrecurring fee recoveries not repeating; despite this, guidance raised .
  • Capital allocation: Continued buybacks (3.2M shares in Q3; 64.6M YTD) and strong liquidity (> $830M cash & ST investments) support shareholder value while scaling .
  • 2026 watch items: Cash App issuance diversification (~2 pts drag) and second large renewal; pipeline offset from Europe and enterprise wins via TransactPay .
  • Tactical trade setup: Positive estimate revisions and raised guidance are supportive near term; monitor December holiday BNPL volumes, Q4 take-rate impacts, and renewal timing .
  • Medium-term thesis: Bank-agnostic, modern platform with multi-geography reach; expanding value-added services (tokenization, risk, white-label) and program management in EU underpin margin scalability .

Notes:

  • Q3 earnings materials and operating highlights are sourced from the 8-K and press release ; qualitative strategy and guidance details from the Q3 call transcript .
  • CEO appointment (Sept 8) provides leadership continuity and credibility on execution .
  • TransactPay acquisition completion (Aug 6) enhances EU capabilities and enterprise pipeline .