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Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (MSGS)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2025 revenue was $204.0M, down 10% year over year on fewer playoff games and lower league distributions; diluted EPS was $(0.07), versus $1.06 in Q4 2024 .
  • Versus Wall Street consensus, revenue beat by ~$41.0M and EPS beat by $0.27 per share, driven by stronger-than-expected Knicks playoff monetization and in-arena categories, despite RSN fee reductions; Primary EPS consensus was $(0.34)* and revenue consensus was $162.9M* (actuals: $(0.07) and $203.96M) *.
  • Adjusted operating income (AOI) swung to a $(16.8)M loss from $56.5M in Q4 2024, as team personnel transactions, revenue sharing and luxury tax drove higher operating costs .
  • Management expects FY26 growth in in-arena revenue and higher national media rights to more than offset a full run-rate ~$24M Y/Y decline in local media rights fees, while team OpEx (comp and luxury tax) remains elevated .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Knicks’ playoff run generated the highest per-game gate in team history, with meaningful carryover into renewals and corporate demand (“we remain as confident as ever in the value of owning two iconic sports franchises”) .
  • In-arena revenue categories remained robust; management expects FY26 growth across tickets, suites, sponsorships, and F&B as demand continues .
  • Marketing partnerships expanded (e.g., Experience Abu Dhabi as Knicks’ patch partner; Lenovo/Motorola), and suite renovations supported another year of record suite revenues in FY25 .

What Went Wrong

  • Q4 AOI fell to $(16.8)M from $56.5M in the prior year, primarily on higher team personnel transactions, luxury tax, and revenue sharing expenses .
  • Revenue declined 10% Y/Y in Q4, largely due to six fewer playoff games and the absence of a ~$7M NHL territorial fee recognized last year .
  • Local media rights fee reductions (Knicks −28%, Rangers −18%) pressured media revenue; full run-rate ~$24M Y/Y decline expected in FY26, with potential further reductions if national TV commitments reduce MSGN exclusivity .

Financial Results

Quarterly performance (Q2–Q4 FY2025)

MetricQ2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$357.76 $424.20 $203.96
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.05 $(0.59) $(0.07)
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$13.32 $32.34 $(22.58)
Adjusted Operating Income ($USD Millions)$20.24 $36.93 $(16.76)
EBIT Margin %3.70%*7.60%*−11.11%*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Q4 2025 vs Q4 2024 and vs Estimates

MetricQ4 2024Q4 2025Consensus (S&P)Actual vs Consensus
Revenue ($USD Millions)$227.25 $203.96 $162.95*+$41.01M beat*
Diluted EPS ($USD)$1.06 $(0.07) $(0.34)*+$0.27 beat*
Operating (Loss) Income ($USD Millions)$52.30 $(22.58) n/an/a
Adjusted Operating (Loss) Income ($USD Millions)$56.51 $(16.76) n/an/a

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Revenue Composition (Q4 2025)

CategoryQ4 2025 ($USD Millions)
Event-Related Revenues (tickets, F&B, merchandise; incl. playoffs)$140.3
Suites, Sponsorship & Signage (incl. playoffs)$31.9
National & Local Media Rights Fees$27.8

KPIs (Q4 FY2025 context)

KPIValueNote
Knicks/Rangers Season Ticket Renewal Rate (in progress)~90% Raised pricing for Knicks; held for Rangers given no playoffs
Home Playoff Games at The Garden9 Down from 15 in prior year quarter
Avg Per-Game Playoff Revenue~$12.8M Premium pricing increases each round
Avg Per-Game Playoff Direct OpEx~$5.8M Plus additional marketing/admin costs
Net New Social Followers FY25~775,000 ~50% added during Knicks playoff run

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
In-Arena Revenue (tickets, suites, sponsorship, F&B)FY2026Not provided“Poised to deliver revenue growth across all in-arena categories” Raised (directional)
National Media Rights Revenue (NBA)FY2026 onwardNot providedStep up from new NBA national deals; escalators thereafter Raised (structural)
Local Media Rights Fees (MSGN)FY2026Not providedFull run-rate ~$24M Y/Y decrease; additional reductions if exclusivity thresholds unmet Lowered
Team OpEx (comp, revenue sharing, luxury tax)FY2026Not providedElevated given roster above NBA tax threshold; NHL/NBA cap increases Raised
Tax Regulations (comp deductibility changes)Effective FY2028Not providedAssessing impact; no specifics yet Maintained (no numeric guidance)

Note: Company does not issue formal numeric guidance; table reflects management directional commentary.

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2)Previous Mentions (Q-1)Current Period (Q4 2025)Trend
Local media rights (RSN)Proposed amendments: −28% Knicks/−18% Rangers; remove escalators; shorten term; penny warrants contemplated Amendments executed; −28%/−18%; remove escalators; new expirations with ROFR; penny warrants issued FY26 full run-rate ~$24M Y/Y decline; possible further cuts if national reduces local exclusivity Negative local; offset by national step-up
National media rightsHigher league distributions in Q3 FY2025 Q4 league distributions down due to absence of ~$7M NHL territorial fee NBA national deals step up starting upcoming season; NHL Canada renewal post-FY26 Positive medium-term
Playoff monetizationKnicks in playoffs; momentum building Knicks ECF run; 9 home playoff games Highest per-game gate in team history; avg $12.8M per-game playoff revenue Strong, but fewer total games YoY
Suites & sponsorshipSuites +$3.4M; sponsorship/signage +$8.9M YoY Marketing partners added/renewed Another record year for suites; new partners (Abu Dhabi, Lenovo/Motorola); more renovations planned Up structurally
MerchandiseDown YoY due to prior-year Rangers jersey launches —In-arena per cap up modestly; overall merch lower vs FY24 Normalizing
Operating costsHigher comp, revenue sharing, luxury tax Elevated comp/luxury tax; personnel transactions Elevated OpEx persists; NBA/NHL cap/tax thresholds up Up

Management Commentary

  • “With recently announced franchise transactions at record level valuations… we remain as confident as ever in the value of owning two iconic sports franchises.”
  • “We believe our business is poised to deliver revenue growth across all in-arena categories in fiscal twenty six… and we will see an increase in our National Media rights revenue.”
  • “Fiscal twenty five… reflected [a] partial year impact of… amended local media rights agreements with MSG Networks… and our investment in our teams.”
  • “Our playoff related revenues for the fourth quarter were $115.2 million… translating to about $12.8 million in average per game revenues.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Capital returns and liquidity: CFO emphasized strong liquidity (cash ~$145M at FY-end; revolving capacity available) and openness to future capital return programs, opportunistically .
  • Minority stake sale: COO reiterated confidence in team valuations and did not rule out minority stake sales but had “nothing to report” .
  • RSN ecosystem: Management views RSNs as valuable for local engagement; local fees cut but national deals step up; local fee reductions could deepen if national telecasts reduce MSGN exclusivity .
  • Playoff economics: Q4 playoff revenue averaged ~$12.8M per game; direct OpEx ~$5.8M per game; notable per-cap strength in F&B and merchandise during playoffs .
  • FY26 OpEx: Elevated team comp and luxury tax; NBA cap raised to ~$104.6M and luxury tax threshold to ~$187.9M; NHL cap up to ~$95.5M .

Estimates Context

  • Q4 2025 Results vs Consensus (S&P Global): Revenue $203.96M vs $162.95M consensus* (+$41.01M beat*); EPS $(0.07) vs $(0.34) consensus* (+$0.27 beat*). Number of estimates: Revenue 5*, EPS 1*.
    Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Where estimates may need to adjust:

  • Raise FY26 in-arena revenue trajectories given playoff momentum and suite renovations .
  • Raise FY26 media revenue for national NBA step-up; lower local RSN fees by full run-rate ~$24M Y/Y .
  • Increase FY26 OpEx assumptions for team comp and luxury tax .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q4 printed a clean beat versus consensus on both revenue and EPS despite RSN fee headwinds; in-arena demand and playoff monetization were key drivers *.
  • FY26 setup: national NBA media rights step-up plus continued in-arena demand likely offset full-run RSN fee reductions; model net positive media trajectory .
  • Expect elevated OpEx given Knicks roster/tax position and higher league caps; adjust margin assumptions accordingly .
  • Suites and sponsorship remain structural growth pillars; ongoing renovations and partner additions support pricing power .
  • Minority stake sale remains a potential catalyst; management acknowledges valuation disconnect but provided no timeline .
  • Monitor RSN exclusivity thresholds under new national TV packages; could further reduce local fees (manage downside) .
  • Near-term trading: narrative likely focuses on playoff-to-regular-season demand carryover, FY26 media tailwinds, and any capital allocation updates; medium term thesis hinges on scarcity value of assets and monetization resiliency .