Motorola Solutions - Q3 2016

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good afternoon, and thank you for holding. Welcome to the Motorola Solutions third quarter 2016 earnings conference call. Today's call is being recorded. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time. The presentation material and additional financial tables are currently posted on the Motorola Solutions investor relations website. In addition, a replay of this call will be available approximately three hours after the conclusion of this call over the Internet. The website address is www.motorolasolutions.com/investor. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode, and the line will be open for your questions following the presentation. I would now like to introduce Mr. Chris Kutzer, Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Kutzer, you may begin your conference.

Chris Kutzer (Director of Investor Relations)

Thank you. Good afternoon. Welcome to our 2016 third quarter earnings call. With me today are Greg Brown, Chairman and CEO; Gino Bonanotte, Executive Vice President and CFO; Bruce Burda, Executive Vice President, Products and Services; and Jack Molloy, Executive Vice President, Worldwide Sales. Greg and Gino will review our results along with commentary, and Bruce and Jack will join for Q&A. We have posted an earnings presentation and news release at motorolasolutions.com/investor. These materials include GAAP to Non-GAAP reconciliations for your reference. A number of forward-looking statements will be made during this presentation and during the Q&A portion of the call. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from these forward-looking statements.

Information about factors that could cause such differences can be found in today's earnings news release, in the comments made during this conference call, in the Risk Factors section of our 2015 annual report on Form 10-K, and in our other reports and filings with the SEC. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statement. I'll now turn it over to Greg.

Thanks, Chris. Good afternoon, and thanks for joining us today. We're particularly excited to be delivering this call from our new corporate headquarters in Chicago and home of the world champion Chicago Cubs. Pretty special. Having said that, I'd like to share a few thoughts about the overall business before Gino takes us through the results and outlook. First, Q3 was an excellent quarter. Our operational execution and solid financial results were anchored by strength in North America and our growing managed and support services business. We grew revenue 8%, along with significant growth in earnings and $348 million of operating cash flow. Second, we continue to invest in developing our software and services portfolio, including the recently announced Spillman Technologies acquisition. Spillman's command center software is an important complementary addition to our existing software portfolio.

And finally, I'm pleased to announce that we're raising our full year guidance for earnings and also raising the dividend by 15%. As I look to next year, we remain committed to growing revenue and cash flow with an efficient cost structure while driving even more innovation. At this point, I'll turn the call over to Gino to provide additional details on Q3 and outlook before returning to provide some closing thoughts.

Gino Bonanotte (EVP and CFO)

Thank you, Greg. Q3 results include revenue of $1.5 billion, up 8% versus last year, including Airwave revenue of $131 million. GAAP operating earnings of $341 million. Non-GAAP operating earnings of $396 million, or 25.8% of sales, up 530 basis points from the year ago quarter.

GAAP earnings per share from continuing operations were $1.13 compared to 63 cents in the third quarter of 2015. Non-GAAP EPS was $1.37 versus 82 cents in the year-ago quarter, a 67% year-over-year increase. Ending backlog is up $2.1 billion versus last year, $1.4 billion from Airwave, $600 million from managed and support services, primarily driven by North America, and $62 million from products. For the remainder of the call, we will reference Non-GAAP financial results, including those in our outlook, unless otherwise noted. Q3 product sales were $920 million, down 1% versus last year on solid North America performance, offset by a large P25 project in Africa last year and China softness.

Q3 product segment operating income was $243 million, or 26.4% of sales, up 250 basis points versus last year, driven by lower OpEx. Product segment backlog ended the quarter at $1.4 billion, up 5% or $62 million versus last year, driven by North America. Sequentially, product backlog was up $63 million, with growth in North America, Latin America and the MEA. Turning to services, Q3 services revenue was $612 million, up 23%, including Airwave. Excluding Airwave, managed and support services grew 5%. Services operating income was $153 million, up $82 million from the prior year. Operating margins increased from 14.3%-25% of revenue on Airwave contributions and improved gross margin.

Services backlog ended at $6.7 billion, up $2.1 billion versus last year. Of the $2.1 billion increase, Airwave was $1.4 billion, and organic managed and support services was up over $600 million. Sequentially, services backlog is down $136 million due to currency adjustments related to the British pound and Airwave backlog conversion to revenue against a fixed contract. Moving to operating expenses. Total OpEx from continuing operations was $369 million, down $27 million or 7% from the year ago quarter, driven by continued cost reduction activities. Other income and expense was $48 million, compared to $34 million in the year ago quarter, driven primarily by higher interest expense. The Q3 effective tax rate was 33%.

Q3 operating cash flow was $348 million, an increase of $47 million, driven by higher earnings. Free cash flow was $280 million, an increase of $29 million versus last year. We ended Q3 with cash of $1.7 billion and a net debt position of $3.4 billion. During the quarter, we repurchased $109 million of stock at an average price of $73.11, and we paid dividends of $70 million. Turning to our outlook. We expect Q4 sales growth of 9%-10%, including $120 million from Airwave. We expect Q4 Non-GAAP EPS between $1.82 and $1.87.

For the full year 2016, we expect revenue growth of 5%-6%, and we now expect Non-GAAP EPS of $4.67-$4.72, versus the prior outlook of $4.45-$4.65. This assumes a weighted average diluted share count of approximately 173 million shares. Full year operating expenses are expected to be down approximately $120 million versus 2015. We expect the full year 2016 effective tax rate to be approximately 32%. Operating cash flow is still expected to be approximately $1.1 billion-$1.2 billion, and free cash flow of approximately $800 million-$900 million. Finally, share repurchases are expected to be in the range of $800 million-$900 million. Looking briefly at 2017, I'd like to make a few points.

First, we now expect Airwave to be approximately flat given the current foreign exchange rates, and we expect iDEN to decline by $50 million next year. That said, we continue to expect overall growth in 2017, and we'll provide a full outlook on our next call. Moving to regional results. North America had another strong quarter, with 4% growth, driven by both products and services. The pipeline and backlog remain healthy, particularly for multiyear services. North America remains on track for low single-digit growth for the full year. As expected, Latin America was down $15 million or 17% on continued challenging macroeconomic conditions and a $9 million iDEN decline. While this market remains challenged, we do see some signs of stabilization. EMEA was up 34%, including Airwave.

Excluding Airwave, EMEA was down 20% as expected, driven by difficult comps, including the Norway installation completion and a large P25 order last year. Asia Pac grew 2%, led by services growth, which was partially offset by continued softness in China. Finally, I'd like to end with some notable segment highlights. In our product segment, we announced several new products, including the APX 8500 P25 all-band mobile radio. This device provides unlimited interoperability across public safety LMR networks, as well as the ability to interface with 4G LTE carrier networks and over secure Wi-Fi networks.

We also won several notable deals that include a $37 million award to expand a nationwide TETRA network in Africa, a $34 million, $34 million dollars for two P25 contracts with the U.S. Federal Government, and a $20 million award for a P25 network with a large U.S. utility customer. In our services segment, we opened a new network operation center in Penang to deliver mission-critical support services to customers in the Asia Pacific region. We also have been demonstrating our vision for the command center of the future, using a combination of virtual reality and eye interaction technologies to immerse the public safety command center supervisor in an incident scene. This focus on the command center underlines the recent Spillman Technologies acquisition, which adds important software solutions to our command center software offerings.

We expect these investments and market traction to continue, as exemplified by our recent $12 million award from the Los Angeles Police Department for a command center upgrade. I'd now like to turn the call back over to Greg.

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

Thanks, Gino. Let me just close with a few thoughts. First, I was pleased with our performance in Q3. We grew revenue and improved earnings and cash flow. We made investments and performed well in a number of key areas, including continued growth in our managed and support services business and strong results in North America. Additionally, the $600 million of organic backlog growth in managed and support services, I think, is a strong indication of the confidence expressed by our customers in the ongoing criticality and longevity of LMR into the future. And finally, looking to 2017, I like our path and our momentum towards continued revenue growth, earnings expansion, and strong cash flow generation. And now I'll turn it back over to Chris.

Chris Kutzer (Director of Investor Relations)

Thank you, Greg. Before we begin taking questions, I'd like to remind callers to limit themselves to one question and one follow-up, to accommodate as many participants as possible. Operator, would you please remind callers on the line how to ask a question?

Operator (participant)

Certainly. The floor is now open for questions. At this time, if you have a question or comment, please press star one on your touch-tone phone. If at any point your question is answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing the pound key. We do ask that while you pose your question, please pick up your handset to provide optimal sound quality. Thank you. Our first question is coming from Tavis McCourt with Raymond James. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Tavis McCourt (Institutional Equity Strategist)

Hey, guys, thanks for taking my question and congratulations on the Cubs. So, my question is related to gross margin, Gino. It's very good on a consolidated basis. I haven't checked to see if that came from services or products or both, but it's obviously been kind of accelerating, but all over the board this year, after years of having a relatively stable trend. So I guess, first of all, what's the run rate right number for gross margin? And then secondly, what caused it to be reasonably volatile this year?

Gino Bonanotte (EVP and CFO)

Sure.

Tavis McCourt (Institutional Equity Strategist)

And then, Greg, if I could ask a quick follow-up on a product announcement this month. I think you announced or Southern Linc announced that LTE push-to-talk deployment. Is that the first LTE push-to-talk that you guys have done, or have you done any prior to that? Thanks.

Gino Bonanotte (EVP and CFO)

Tavis, this is Gino. I'll take the gross margin question. To begin with, as far as gross margins for going into Q4, we expect gross margins comparable with the prior year. And for 2017, we'll give further guidance on our next call, but the expectation should be high 40s. The margins have moved, as you indicated. There's a couple things driving it. We'll start with services. And within services, clearly, Airwave margin has impacted our gross margins, as well as the Norway project roll-off. Remember, over the past several quarters, we've talked about margins returning for services in the mid-30s after the roll-off of systems integration. So those were two primary drivers on the services side.

On the product side, comparable to the prior year in Q3, and mix to North America drove the margin profile in Q3.

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

Tavis, in regards to WAVE 7000, we're very pleased with the award from Southern Linc. WAVE 7000 is a result of a product reflected in the acquisition we made, probably 18 months to 2 years ago with Twisted Pair. It's one of the early sales of WAVE. It's a high-end, high-performance push-to-talk solution, but we worked with that opportunity for several months, and we're pleased we got the nod.

Tavis McCourt (Institutional Equity Strategist)

Great. Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Pierre Ferragu with Bernstein. Please go ahead.

Pierre Ferragu (Analyst)

Hi, thank you for taking my question. When looking into 2017, so it's great to hear you are feeling already confident about growth, despite still some idle headwind. I was wondering what gives you that confidence? So if I look at North America, organically, it's up low single digit today. Do you expect continued growth there? Or actually, do you have confidence in growth in 2017 because you think you will see the beginning of a rebound in market that have been badly hurt this year, like South America, China, and Europe after the difficult comps? And then, of course, a quick follow-up, if you could give us a couple of comments on the Spillman acquisition.

How much you think it contributes to growth next year, and what's the big business mix, and how do you see the integration of the business in MSI in particular? It feels like a fairly mature business. Is that the right way to think about it, a mature business with which you're going to generate synergies, or is that a business you can grow?

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

... So let me take the second one first. On Spillman Technologies, we're not going to dimensionalize yet, Pierre, the revenue, until the deal closes, which we would expect to be sometime between now and the end of the year. The way to think about it is it's right in the sweet spot of what we talked around, deploying capital in command center software. So we have a high-end CAD offering, a Tier One offering, if you will, for large cities in CAD that we've been selling for several years. Spillman complements that nicely, with Tier Two and Tier Three, so it rounds out the portfolio around CAD, and consistent with the software in command centers that we said was critical to marry, with the incident management and situational awareness of our radio communications offerings.

We'll be able to dimensionalize it more specifically after it closes. I would, though, just say, I think it- I would describe it as a small tuck in. So I wouldn't want you to think of, significant materiality in changing our expectations for 2017. As it relates to 2017, as Gino talked about, the way to think about it is Airwave being flat. I have to say, Airwave has performed absolutely, consistent to our expectations. The contract is unchanged. Obviously, we've had pressure from the pound from the time that we acquired it, but, year-over-year, expect Airwave to be flat at about $460 million. iDEN, as expected, and pretty much almost done, winds down another $50 million, in 2017.

But even with those ingredients, we still expect growth overall, and assumed in that overall growth is obviously organic growth, overall. But beyond that, we would then finish Q4 and specify the actual numbers on the next call.

Fahad Najam (Analyst)

Excellent. Thank you very much.

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

Sure, Pierre.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Kulbinder Garcha with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Kulbinder Garcha (Managing Director and Head of Global Telecom Equipment Research)

Thank you. With respect to Airwave, I would have thought one thing, Greg, that weren't you guys upselling-

Gino Bonanotte (EVP and CFO)

Kulbinder, we can't hear you.

Kulbinder Garcha (Managing Director and Head of Global Telecom Equipment Research)

Hi, can you hear me now?

Gino Bonanotte (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, that's better.

Kulbinder Garcha (Managing Director and Head of Global Telecom Equipment Research)

Okay. With respect to Airwave, I would have thought one of the benefits should have been on revenue growth for next year, that you were upselling additional services and contracts into that customer. Is that not helping a lot? I understand the translation impact of the currency, that's relatively straightforward, but why isn't that helping you a little bit? And then on the overall business growing, the confidence around that, is that order book-based? Is that contracts you have in discussion? Just any points around visibility would be helpful. Thanks.

Gino Bonanotte (EVP and CFO)

Sure. So I'll start with the Airwave contract. As Greg mentioned, Airwave is performing exactly as we expected, and from a sterling perspective, has not changed. It's simply a matter of FX, year-over-year being flat. There's no change to the contract, and we expect full year 2017 revenue at about GBP 460 million.

Kulbinder Garcha (Managing Director and Head of Global Telecom Equipment Research)

Go ahead.

Gino Bonanotte (EVP and CFO)

Kulbinder, the integration is underway on Airwave, and really, we'll update you further on 2017 on our next call.

Kulbinder Garcha (Managing Director and Head of Global Telecom Equipment Research)

Okay.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Matt Cabral with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Matt Cabral (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah, thank you. On the management support business, I guess, first of all, can you just help us understand how the 5% organic growth broke down by region? And then it sounded like North America was a meaningful contributor. So just more broadly, can you talk about the opportunity for that business internationally as well as within the U.S. going forward?

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

I think... Go ahead, Bruce, if you want to.

Gino Bonanotte (EVP and CFO)

Yeah. So the growth has really been across all regions for managed and support services. North America is the largest contributor, but we've seen growth, I believe, in every region every quarter for the last three years at this point, for managed and support services. So you can think of that as global in terms of the impact.

Matt Cabral (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. And then as a follow-up, for EMEA as a region, just looking at the 20% decline overall, backing out Airwave. First of all, can you just remind us how big of a headwind it was from Norway in the quarter? And then, just taking a step back, just help us understand what's been weighing on organic performance within EMEA in particular, and what you see as the biggest hurdles. What are the biggest things that you have to do to return that geography to growth going forward?

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

Matt, good evening, it's Jack. A couple of comments. So Norway was, in particular, a $30 million headwind. In the quarter, part of our 20% down, excluding Airwave, is also a large ASTRO Project 25 deal in North Africa. So we had two, two pretty kind of chunky headwinds there. When you think about it moving forward, we do expect lower organic growth in Q4 in EMEA. So we are seeing some things improve. You know, without getting into a great level of detail, in Q3, we've seen some things start to stabilize in Eastern Europe. But in general, the business is getting healthier, as we kind of get through these big comps with Norway and North Africa, as I mentioned.

Jack Molloy (EVP, Worldwide Sales)

Just to follow up really on Kulbinder on the second question you had, Kulbinder, with respect to 2017, and obviously, we'll give you far more color on 2017 on our next call. But really, the view of 2017 does start with aged backlog currently in 2017 versus the prior year. So our position through the end of Q3 in backlog, aged in 2017, and as Jack said, some comparable or some favorable comps in a couple of the regions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Keith Housum with Northcoast Research. Please go ahead.

Keith Housum (Managing Director and Research Analyst)

Good afternoon, gentlemen. Thanks for taking my question. Greg, just a first question regarding FirstNet and, you know, with the involvement or now exclusion of PDV Wireless from the contract negotiations, are you guys still involved in the FirstNet bidding process?

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

We are. We're fully engaged and committed to FirstNet. I think we expect an announcement soon, this month or next month. That's kind of what we're thinking about. And I think we're well-positioned. Remember that we believe it is additive to Land Mobile Radio. I think the best example of that is what we talked about earlier, a few minutes ago, about the $600 million of organic backlog growth in managed and support services. But we've worked very closely on it, had an extensive team on it, and I think we're well-positioned, given the domain expertise in public safety, our go-to-market sales force, and some of the uniqueness we also bring in the interoperability of existing LMR that'll interconnect to LTE networks.

Keith Housum (Managing Director and Research Analyst)

Okay, and if I can follow up to that, with the ESN over the UK being delayed, is that adding to your backlog with the Airwave extension?

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

No, it's not, and I'll let the UK Home Office speak about their own requirements. What I would say on ESN is, we, particularly Bruce Burda's team, are closely engaged with the customer. I think the deliverables that we're responsible for are progressing well. In fact, I was just in London last week. We stay closely aligned with that customer, and we will continue to work closely with them on whatever they decide, ultimately, the rollout schedule will be.

Keith Housum (Managing Director and Research Analyst)

Great. Thank you.

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

Sure.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Tim Long with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Tim Long (Analyst)

Thank you, and congrats, guys, on the back-end-loaded World Series win there. One question, then a clarification. Greg, could you talk a little bit. You mentioned FirstNet. Could you talk a little bit about pipeline for, you know, other large public service LTE networks, as well as other strategic wins? It sounds like you announced a lot in the September quarter, so if you could hit on the pipeline there. And then just two verticals, if we could hit on. I think China was highlighted as a little bit weak, if you could just touch on what happened there, and also, how was the U.S. federal vertical in the September quarter? Thank you.

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

Sure. So let's talk about kind of the public safety LTE opportunity. Remember, as we think about it, I think, forget FirstNet for a minute. Outside of FirstNet and the four big awards that we've had, I would describe it globally as kind of slow and fluid. Now we're thrilled that we won the four largest awards to date, one of those being ESN, of course. We're working actively on all four of those engagements. And as I mentioned earlier, we've been very active in participating in a response for FirstNet. I think that from a revenue expectation standpoint, I talked previously about approximately $130 million of public safety LTE revenue this year.

As we think about it, even though we're not guiding for 2017, in terms of that area of opportunity, I would say it's comparable to maybe slightly up. But again, even with FirstNet, we're not anticipating any meaningful revenue at all on FirstNet for 2017. So, we've obviously invested in a leading-edge portfolio over the last several years. We really like our position globally and here domestically, and we'll see what unfolds here with FirstNet between now and the end of the year.

Jack Molloy (EVP, Worldwide Sales)

Tim, hey, it's Jack. So to, I guess, two different questions. First of all, China. China is approximately or probably a little less than 3% of our overall revenue. We're coming off a strong 2015. I think the biggest challenge we have as it relates to China is its preference to some of the indigenous manufacturers there. So as we see China moving forward, there's continued uncertainty. I would kind of counter that in the fact that Asia Pacific, as a region, still grew 2% in Q3, and we expect, you know, kind of comparable kind of growth in Q4, despite the Chinese pressure. Pivot to the federal market, extremely proud, as Gino and Greg alluded to earlier, of not only North America, but I think in particular, the federal team.

We had a very strong close to the fiscal close, which was at the end of September, which you're aware of. It's a $500 million, approximately, business for us. We expect comparable kind of growth rates this year that we had in 2015. I would highlight that-

... There's strength in pipeline, both on the DoD side of the business, as well as with the civil law enforcement administration side of things there. So again, we're proud of what's happening in the federal space now.

Tim Long (Analyst)

Okay, thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from George Notter with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

George Notter (Equity Research Analyst)

Hi, guys. Thanks very much. I guess I wanted to kind of go back to one of the potential growth avenues for the company. You guys obviously have used inorganic opportunities or M&A quite well historically, but I was just kind of wondering if there's anything new on the horizon in terms of new opportunities inorganically. Maybe you can just talk more about, you know, what you're looking at from an M&A perspective. Thanks.

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

I think our expectations along those lines are unchanged, more specifically, we will continue to pursue and evaluate acquisitions. Think of them in three buckets. The command center software, which we announced with Spillman, look to close that between now and the end of the year. The managed services business, we obviously closed Airwave in February, and there are a few opportunities of what I would characterize, as mini Airwaves, a lot more mini Airwaves, nothing of that size. But if there's opportunities where we could get a healthy return on invested capital by taking over the management of a public safety network, either domestically or internationally, we'll evaluate it and consider it.

Lastly, just areas that reinforce our durability in the public safety platform business will give consideration as well, but it's consistent with what we've talked about, primarily with a focus around software and services.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Vijay Bhagavath with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Vijay Bhagavath (Research Analyst)

Yeah, thanks. Yeah. Hi, Greg, Gino.

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

How are you, Vijay?

Vijay Bhagavath (Research Analyst)

Hi. I'd like to hear, you know, a snapshot on order trends that your sales teams are seeing here in the U.S. and also in Europe and APAC as we head into the new year. Has the strong dollar delayed or downscaled any overseas purchase orders? Then, Gino, quickly, is there conservatism built into your fourth quarter guidance, given the third quarter beat? Thanks.

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

Yes. So, Vijay, what I would say, our outlook for Q4, grounded in 9%-10% top line growth, includes a few things. Number one, the core business returns to organic growth in Q4. Really important, we stated that as our intention, and we anticipate fulfilling that. So that's obviously, a significant key component. Second, product backlog has grown both sequentially and year-on-year. Also important, as we are almost midway through Q4 from a momentum standpoint. Third, overall backlog growth is up in North America, EMEA, and Latin America, and as Gino referenced a few minutes ago, aged backlog overall is up year-on-year as well.

So those are nice trends to kind of run through the tape through Q3 and positions us very well, I think, for performance. That's incorporated into the way we've thought about the guidance for Q4.

Vijay Bhagavath (Research Analyst)

Yeah, perfect. It's very helpful. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Andrew DeGasperi with Macquarie. Please go ahead.

Andrew DeGasperi (Equity Research Analyst and Technology, Media and Telecom)

Thanks. As a follow-up on the M&A question, I was wondering if you could maybe give us some color as far as what states or localities you think you would need a bigger presence in.

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

I don't think, I don't think we need a bigger presence in any of them, in terms of acquisitions per se. Now, Molloy has done a good job increasing our presence from a go-to-market standpoint. We've added some sales coverage in some of the commercial markets, non-public safety. We've added some go-to-market sales coverage in EMEA. But I don't think as we look across the global landscape, that we're lacking in any one particular region. Now, having said that, if there are opportunities that we think are convenient and provide a nice return on invested capital, in one theater or another, we'll consider it and we'll pursue it accordingly.

Andrew DeGasperi (Equity Research Analyst and Technology, Media and Telecom)

Thanks. One last question. So, question on increase in revenues, it sounds like from a midpoint standpoint, it's like about $300 million. Is there any particular region that we should be seeing most of this growth coming from?

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

Well, as I mentioned, I mean, in Q4, I think we're anticipating growth in all regions. The backlog has been up in virtually all of the regions. I think as always, right, 65% of our company is North America. From a dollar standpoint, you can think about it and dimensionalize it with that being larger than the other regions. I think Molloy and team have done a nice balanced job to give us what we need to for forward-looking momentum.

Andrew DeGasperi (Equity Research Analyst and Technology, Media and Telecom)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We'll go next to Stanley Kovler with Citi Research. Please go ahead.

Stanley Kovler (Small / Midcap IT Hardware and Networking Analyst)

Yeah, thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to clarify one thing about the fourth quarter or full year 2016 guidance. If you can just help us understand how much of that outlook for next quarter is impacted by currency headwinds, and then I have a follow-up.

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

... The, from a currency headwind perspective, it's de minimis. It's really, it's not, it's not a driver, and it's not really much of a headwind year-over-year.

Stanley Kovler (Small / Midcap IT Hardware and Networking Analyst)

Understood. My larger question is just if you can help us with 2017. I know you wanna, you don't wanna get too far ahead of yourselves in terms of guiding, but if we're looking at the different moving parts between products and services, it feels like product revenue growth would be up for the first time in four years heading into 2017. How should we think about that? As part of that, can you also discuss just the general trends in some of your businesses related to software, command and control? You know, how quickly are those areas ramping of segments that you previously called next generation public safety, or if I got the terminology wrong, but I think that was close enough there. Thank you very much.

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

I think it's TBD. Too early to talk about product-specific segment for 2017. It has been up in backlog for a number of quarters consecutively, and we're pleased with the trends on that, but wouldn't get out yet, talking about that segment for 2017. I think on the kind of next generation public safety area, software and services, if you wanna describe it that way, I'm pretty pleased with it. I think we're measured in our investments. It's not large, as you know, but it's important. You know, if you think about services as an example, 40% of our revenue, 40% of the company's revenue is services, and 25% of the company's revenue is recurring. So as we build traction and expand multiyear services backlog, that's a great thing.

Again, it represents the confidence our customers have in the efficacy and the performance of LMR and the longevity of it. And then we layer on additional applications, intelligent middleware, command center software, analytics, and other things that we think could position us well with value-added services and software in the command center that are on top of our typical infrastructure or mission-critical communications product business. So I'm pleased with it. I think there'll continue to be some opportunities for inorganic as well, within the envelope of the capital allocation model that we've talked about on a normalized basis. So we've always talked 50%, 30%, 20%. 50% of our operating cash flow would be used for share repurchase or M&A, 30% for CapEx, and 20% for dividend.

I think we'll continue to operate in that envelope. 30% actually dividend, 20% CapEx. I always am dyslexic on that. Sorry. I think we have a good balance sheet and a good position to be able to pursue these.

Stanley Kovler (Small / Midcap IT Hardware and Networking Analyst)

Thanks for that detail.

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

Sure.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Fahad Najam with Cowen and Company. Please go ahead.

Fahad Najam (Analyst)

Hi, thank you for taking my call. Can you hear me?

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

Yep.

Fahad Najam (Analyst)

So if I look at your OpEx revenue ratio, I think this is the first time where your OpEx revenue ratio is actually a little bit below the Street expectations. Should we expect going forward that the tailwinds that you were enjoying on OpEx are largely now behind us?

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah, we reduced OpEx $27 million in Q3. I think the team has done a fantastic job of making our cost structure more competitive and lowering the fixed cost profile of the business, so that as volume grows, we have variable costs that attaches to it. Look, I think the heavy lifting is behind us on the OpEx, and as we think about it going forward, the overall OpEx is roughly flat to slightly down, but flattish in 2017.

Fahad Najam (Analyst)

Got it. And then just going back to the questions that you've been asked on growth opportunities, can you give us some quantification as to... If I, if I think of growth opportunities outside of public LTE, thinking of, you know, video analytics, smart, call center sol-- you know, contact center solutions that you guys have announced, roughly what % of your revenue today are those? You said it's small, but help us understand in terms of %, what it is and how fast it's growing for you.

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

Again, I think it's the software piece of it is a few hundred million. It's relatively small. The services business, as I talked about, is much larger. I think as we think about it, we believe that software and services should be able to perform at a multiple in terms of growth rate of the core business. So, you know, whatever that may be, but it's 2x-3x perhaps as a multiple of top-line revenue growth that would be contributory from software and services.

Fahad Najam (Analyst)

Got it. Thank you so much.

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

Sure.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our final question will come from Andrew Spinola with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Andrew Spinola (Stock Analyst)

Thank you. Did I hear that correct, that you expect OpEx to be roughly flat in 2017? Is that what you just said?

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

I think that our current thinking is flattish. So maybe slightly down, but flattish would be probably more prudent at this point.

Andrew Spinola (Stock Analyst)

Understood. I was just wondering, is there anything that, that's known, like pension expense that goes up next year? Because you've, you've clearly taken down expenses pretty significantly this year, so I would have assumed there was maybe more room in 2017.

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

Well, you know, as our team knows, there's always more room. But I think from a planning standpoint, we've taken a ton out. If I look over the last five years or so, it's almost a third of actual below gross margin operating expense that's come out. There's to your point, there's always good guys and bad guys, but managing the mix of that as well as foreign exchange, I think our current thinking is of generally flattish.

Andrew Spinola (Stock Analyst)

Fair enough. And then on Airwave in 2016, you, you commented that that business has performed in line. Did it, did it also perform in line, on the bottom line? Did it contribute the $0.50 that you were expecting, or, or was it potentially better than that?

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

It performed as expected, both top and bottom line.

Andrew Spinola (Stock Analyst)

$0.50 to the bottom line?

Gino Bonanotte (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, $0.50 to the bottom line. I think that was an early estimate we gave, and you think about it in terms of $0.50 on a GAAP basis, and better than that on a Non-GAAP basis, approximately $0.80.

Andrew Spinola (Stock Analyst)

$0.80. Okay, thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. I will now turn the floor back over to Mr. Chris Kutzer, Director of Investor Relations, for any additional or closing remarks.

Chris Kutzer (Director of Investor Relations)

I think I just want to thank everybody for joining us today, and look forward to updating you on our next call.

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. A replay of this call will be available over the Internet in approximately 3 hours. The website address is www.motorolasolutions.com/investor. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines at this time.