Motorola Solutions - Q4 2016
February 2, 2017
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good afternoon, and thank you for holding. Welcome to the Motorola Solutions fourth quarter 2016 earnings conference call. Today's call is being recorded. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time. The presentation material and additional financial tables are currently posted on the Motorola Solutions investor relations website. In addition, a replay of this call will be available approximately 3 hours after the conclusion of this call over the internet. The website address is www.motorolasolutions.com/investor. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode, and the line will be open for your questions following the presentation. I would now like to introduce Mr. Chris Kutsor, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Kutsor, you may begin your conference.
Chris Kutsor (VP of Investor Relations)
Thank you, and good afternoon. Welcome to our 2016 fourth quarter and full-year earnings call. With me today are Greg Brown, Chairman and CEO; Gino Bonanotte, Executive Vice President and CFO; Bruce Brda, Executive Vice President, Products and Services; and Jack Molloy, Executive Vice President, Worldwide Sales. Greg and Gino will review our results along with commentary, and Bruce and Jack will join for the Q&A portion of the call. We have posted an earnings presentation and news release at motorolasolutions.com/investor. These materials include GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation for your reference. A number of forward-looking statements will be made during this presentation and during the Q&A portion of the call. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from these forward-looking statements.
Information about factors that could cause such differences can be found in today's earnings news release, in the comments made during this conference call, in the risk factors section of our 2015 annual report on Form 10-K, and in our other reports and filings with the SEC. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statement. With that, I'll now turn it over to Greg.
Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)
Thanks, Chris. Good afternoon, and thanks for joining us today. I'd like to share a few thoughts about the overall business before Gino takes us through the results and outlook. First, Q4 was an outstanding quarter, capping a very solid year. For the quarter, we grew revenue by 12%, including 4% organically. Additionally, we grew revenue in every region. Our products segment revenue grew 9%, led by continuing strength in North America and reflecting the durability of our core LMR business. The second, 2016 was a pivotal year for us as we returned to growth. We strengthened our competitive position and grew revenue 6% while ending the year with a record backlog position, and our services segment grew 18% to $2.4 billion, with services now comprising 40% of our business.
And lastly, I'm very confident in our position going forward. Since the split six years ago, MSI's annual total shareholder return has averaged over 20% a year. We've strengthened our product portfolio, dramatically reduced our cost profile, normalized the balance sheet, reduced our share count by 52%, reduced our share count by 52%, refreshed our board and senior leadership team, and completed four key software and services-based acquisitions just this past year. So with that baseline, I believe we're set up well for success going forward. As I think about 2017 and beyond, we remain fully committed to revenue growth, earnings growth, and continued cash flow improvement. I'll now turn the call over to Gino to provide additional details on Q4 results and outlook before returning to provide some closing thoughts.
Gino Bonanotte (EVP and CFO)
Thank you, Greg. Q4 results include revenue of $1.9 billion, up 12% from last year, including Airwave revenue of $124 million. The strong results were driven by growth in every region, 9% growth in products and 18% growth in services. GAAP operating earnings were $403 million. Non-GAAP operating earnings were $541 million, or 29% of sales, representing an improvement of 150 basis points from the year ago quarter. GAAP earnings per share from continuing operations were $1.43 compared to $1.56 in the year ago quarter. Non-GAAP EPS was $2.03 a share, up $1.58- up from $1.58 in the year ago quarter, a 28% year-over-year increase.
Ending backlog is up $1.9 billion from last year and $234 million sequentially. The $1.9 billion increase versus last year was driven by $1.25 billion from Airwave, $300 million from organic managed and support services, and $300 million from products. For the remainder of the call, we will reference non-GAAP financial results, including those in our outlook, unless otherwise noted. For the full year, revenue grew 6%, including $462 million of Airwave revenue. Revenue excluding Airwave declined 2% on weakness in Latin America and parts of Europe in the first half, while both North America and Asia PAC grew for the full year. Managed and support services grew 49% in the full year, and 5% excluding Airwave.
Operating earnings were $1.4 billion, up $261 million or 22% compared to the previous year. Earnings per share grew 48% to $4.92. Free cash flow was $894 million, up $48 million. Moving to the product segment. Q4 product sales were $1.23 billion, up 9% from the prior year, driven by growth in every region. Q4 products operating income was $407 million, or 33% of sales, up 300 basis points from last year, driven by higher sales. Products backlog ended the quarter at $1.5 billion, up approximately $300 million from last year, primarily on continued strength in North America.
Sequentially, backlog was up $102 million, also driven by strong order volume in North America. Q4 services revenue was $657 million, up 18%, including $124 million of Airwave. Excluding Airwave, managed and support services grew 5%. Services operating income was $134 million or 20% of revenue. Operating margins were down year-on-year due to higher integration costs associated with the completion of the Norway implementation phase, as well as higher incentive costs for the 2016 backlog performance. Services backlog ended at $6.9 billion, up $1.6 billion from last year. Of the $1.6 billion increase, Airwave was $1.25 billion, and organic managed and support services was up $300 million, driven primarily by North America.
Sequentially, services backlog is up $133 million, driven by North America and Latin America, and it includes a $250 million adjustment, primarily due to the British pound. Moving to operating expenses. Total OpEx in Q4 was $408 million, up $22 million from the year ago quarter, driven primarily by M&A expenses and higher incentives associated with our 2016 record backlog performance. It's important to note that from a run rate perspective, we achieved our 2016 targets and remain on track for structural reductions to OpEx. For the year, we reduced operating expenses by approximately $80 million. Other income and expense in Q4 was $41 million, compared to $51 million in the year ago quarter.
The Q4 effective tax rate was 31%, and for the full year 2016, the effective tax rate was also 31%. Moving to cash and capital allocation. Q4 operating cash flow was $513 million, an increase of $98 million from last year, driven by higher revenue and EBITDA. Free cash flow was $453 million, up $82 million. We ended Q4 in a net debt position of $3.4 billion. During the quarter, we repurchased $114 million of stock, paid out $68 million in dividends, and repaid the term loan related to the Airwave acquisition. We also invested $246 million in software solutions with the acquisitions of Spillman Technologies, Gridstone, and Silvus. Capital return for 2016 was $2.4 billion.
This is comprised of acquisitions of $1.3 billion, share buybacks of $842 million at an average price of $70.28, and dividends of $280 million. Turning to our outlook, we expect Q1 sales growth of 3%-5% and EPS between $0.52 and $0.57. This outlook reflects approximately $50 million of incremental Airwave revenue versus the year ago quarter, and an average diluted share count of approximately 170 million shares, and it is based on current FX rates. For the full year of 2017, we expect revenue growth of 1%-2% and EPS of $5.05-$5.20.
We expect operating cash flow to grow by approximately $50 million-$1.225 billion, and free cash flow to be approximately $950 million. This outlook is based on current foreign exchange rates and assumes Airwave revenue to be approximately flat from the prior year, due entirely to currency. Moving to regional results, North America grew 3% in Q4 and 2% for the full year, with approximately equal growth in both products and services. Backlog is up significantly in both products and services year-over-year and sequentially. Latin America revenue grew 21% in Q4, driven by products. For the year, Latin America declined 20% on macroeconomic headwinds in the first half, as well as expected iDEN declines. Ending backlog is up double digits, both year-over-year and sequentially, driven by large projects in Q4.
EMEA grew 45% in Q4, inclusive of Airwave, and was up 1% organically. For the year, EMEA grew 33%, including Airwave. Excluding Airwave, EMEA declined 15%, driven primarily by approximately $100 million of lower Norway revenue associated with the completion of the implementation phase of the nationwide contract. Asia Pac revenue grew 15% for the quarter and 3% for the year, driven by the product segment. Finally, I'd like to end with some notable segment highlights. The product segment's strong results reflect our continued focus on innovation, cost efficiency, and execution. A few examples of this innovation and investment include targeted acquisitions, including Spillman Technologies and Gridstone, which strengthen our software offerings for public safety.
The release of new P25 and TETRA devices that provide advanced features and functionality, including Bluetooth 4.0, Wi-Fi, and enhanced location services that enable future Software and Services opportunities. Norway and Sweden conducted their first major cross-border emergency response exercise, supported by our software, that enables fully interoperable multi-vendor radio communications. This land mobile radio cross-border collaboration is spurring additional interest from neighboring countries and illustrates the power of our LMR communications platform. I also want to mention some notable wins. A $140 million P25 system deployment for the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority, enabling seamless communication both above and below ground. $60 million to upgrade and maintain the citywide P25 system for the metro area of San Francisco and $40 million to upgrade a P25 system that expands coverage and enables interoperable communications, unifying eight cities in Argentina.
In the Services segment, we continue to grow our managed and support services business around the world. Q4 multi-year service awards include wins in Texas, South Carolina, California, the United Kingdom, Argentina, China, and Latvia. Deals such as these help drive our Services backlog growth of nearly $300 million, or 7%, excluding Airwave. We expect our momentum in the managed and support services business to continue as our customers choose Motorola expertise to help them navigate their fast-changing technology options at a predictable cost. I'd now like to turn the call back over to Greg.
Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)
Thanks, Gino. Let me just close with a few brief thoughts. 2016 was a strong year of execution and growth, especially considering the macroeconomic headwinds in Latin America and parts of Europe earlier in the year. For a little additional perspective, it's worth noting that North America grew each of the past two years and six of the last eight quarters. Asia PAC grew the past two years, and EMEA returned to growth this year as well, all of which I think confirms the durability and longevity of our LMR platform. So while I'm pleased with our results, we'll continue to drive the business for improved operating leverage and revenue growth in 2017, and I expect our record backlog position entering this year to support our growth going forward. I'll now turn it back over to Chris.
Chris Kutsor (VP of Investor Relations)
Thank you, Greg. Before we begin taking questions, I'd like to remind callers to please limit themselves to one question and a follow-up to accommodate as many participants as possible. Operator, would you please remind our callers how to ask a question?
Operator (participant)
The floor is now open for questions. At this time, if you have a question or comment, please press star one on your touchtone phone. If at any point your question is answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing the pound key. We do ask that while you pose your question, please pick up your handset to provide optimal sound quality. Thank you. Our first question is coming from Pierre Ferragu with Bernstein. Please go ahead.
Pierre Ferragu (Analyst)
Hi, thank you for taking my question. I'm looking at 2017. I just want to make sure I have the right picture here. So your guys are of 1%-2% revenue growth. If I adjust for iDEN and where currency is today, I get an adjustment of maybe $120 million-$130 million, which means that your organic growth is somewhere between 3%-4%. So just wanted to make sure that's the right picture. And then if you can give us a sense of what gives you confidence in this organic growth? Is that mostly services, or do you see growth in products as well, and maybe in terms of geography?
And then a quick follow-up, of course, on Q1. Your guide is below, below expectations, and it seems like the seasonality between Q4 and Q1 is, is below what we've seen in, in recent years. So if you could explain us, moving parts around that, that would be very helpful.
Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah, Pierre, make sure I capture everything, and if I don't, please follow up. But let's talk about 2017. So you're right, we're guiding 1%-2% at the top line. You correctly articulated that it, it incorporates a few things, right? So iDEN is a negative headwind of $50 million... There is an order for about ESN for about $25 million, that with the delay of ESN, gets pushed out of 2017. And the third dimension is, is Airwave. Now, Airwave is flat, contemplated in this guidance at about $460 million in 2017.
As a footnote, Pierre, if we were operating with the pound at the rate that we, when we closed Airwave just under a year ago, that would yield $80 million, would have yielded $80 million of additional top-line revenue this year in 2017. So that's kind of the chalk the field on the puts and takes in 2017. We do believe organic growth will continue in 2017, and we do believe we'll grow in both Products and the Services segments, which is assumed in the overall 1%-2% envelope for 2017. For Q1, two points to make, right? So we look at Q1 and we look at Q4 more or less together.
So when we look, when Gino and I, and Jack, and Bruce, we look at Q4 and Q1 and combine those two quarters from a revenue and actually an EPS perspective, it's at or above where we thought it would be coming into Q4. So we had an exceptionally strong Q4, both on top and bottom, so I wouldn't necessarily get concerned about the linearity or the dimensions between the flow between the quarters. The other note, Pierre, is on Q1 EPS. We have a higher tax rate, and we have higher interest expense in Q1. Those two items are worth about $0.08. So that should give you some other ingredients to help think about and dimensionalize the overall performance in Q4, Q1, and fiscal year 2017.
Pierre Ferragu (Analyst)
Excellent. Thanks, Greg. I think you've addressed everything.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from Matthew Cabral with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Matthew Cabral (VP of Equity Research)
Yeah, thank you. So you guys talked on this a little bit in the prepared remarks, but it looks like OpEx came in a little bit above where you were expecting for the full year. Seems like the first time that OpEx actually grew on a year-over-year basis for a while. So could you just dig in a little bit more into what drove that? And I know in the slides you said you're expecting OpEx down year-over-year in 2017, but is there a specific number that you're willing to throw out at this point in terms of a target that you're looking to take out?
Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)
So Matthew, first of all, I would say that OpEx didn't come in higher, did not come in higher than expected. It came in exactly where we expected, and we're achieving the run rate that we articulated previously. It's higher in Q4, primarily on M&A expenses and higher incentives accrued that are directly related to achieving a record backlog. So that's an expense I'll take all day long. If you look at Q1 OpEx, it's up, a little bit, modestly, flat to slightly up. But for the full year, we expect OpEx to be down roughly $20-$25 million. By the way, that's inclusive of about $40 million of acquisitions made. So overall, I'm very pleased with OpEx on our run rate performance.
The management team hit the targets they committed to me, and we will reduce OpEx in 2017, over 16 again, and that's absorbing $40 million of acquisitions.
Matthew Cabral (VP of Equity Research)
Got it. And then on, on Services, looks like there was a pretty big downtick in the operating margin, just sequentially. Could you just expand a little bit more on what drove that, and how should we think about the, the right level of profitability for that business going forward?
Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)
I think, and Gino can chime in, but I think that the segments, the Services segment margin, operating margin, was compressed primarily due to the completion of the Norway integration project and higher incentive accruals that were in Q4.
Gino Bonanotte (EVP and CFO)
Yeah, the only point I'll make that in 2016, Matt, margins were up 470 basis points to 21.6%. And we talked for several quarters about the drag on services margin related to some large implementation projects. And once we completed those projects, a return to the services margin in the mid-thirties, 35%, approximately, and that's our continued expectation. Margin overall for 2017, our expectation is comparable to 2016.
Matthew Cabral (VP of Equity Research)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from Tavis McCourt with Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Tavis McCourt (Managing Director of Equity Research)
Hey, thanks for taking my questions. Gino, I wonder if you could talk a little bit about cash flow and CapEx expectations in 2017. And then, Greg, the backlog growth, when you kind of make all the adjustments in 2017, was actually quite substantial, both in product and services. And I think you mentioned it was predominantly North America or skewed towards North America. Is this all LMR, or is any of this LTE or other business lines? Thanks.
Gino Bonanotte (EVP and CFO)
Well, let's start with cash flow, Tavis. So cash flow expectation for 2017, we said up approximately $50 million in operating cash flow to $1,225 million. And, I will point you to the difference in cash tax rate, 2016 to 2017. The 2016 cash rate was 8%, and right now, our view of 2017 is 15%. And, free cash flow, we expect to be comparable to 2016, perhaps slightly lower, as we continue the build-out of ESN, as well as the ERP system deployment.
Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)
CapEx? Okay.
Tavis McCourt (Managing Director of Equity Research)
The other was backlog.
Gino Bonanotte (EVP and CFO)
Yeah, aged backlog, Tavis, you're right, it was up, nicely, both sequentially and year-over-year. It is definitely overwhelmingly LMR and command center software. It's not LTE. Public Safety LTE for 2016 was about $140 million. By the way, for 2017, we expect it to be comparable, also around $140 million. So definitely, the strength of our backlog is LMR driven and associated software around LMR.
Tavis McCourt (Managing Director of Equity Research)
Great. Thanks a lot.
Gino Bonanotte (EVP and CFO)
Sure.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from Tim Long with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Tim Long (Senior Equity Analyst)
Thank you. Yeah, Greg, following up on Public Safety LTE, obviously, you know, we saw a push out at FirstNet. If you could just talk a little bit about planning assumptions around that and whether or not you think there's been any impact on other Public Safety LTE business in the U.S. kind of as we wait for that decision. And then secondly, could you just talk a little bit, give us some color on the two acquisitions? I think you mentioned an OpEx impact of $40 million. Could you talk a little bit about what that could mean to the top line for 2017, and what do you think that could possibly add to the growth rate if we look out a few years? Thank you.
Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)
So on FirstNet, Tim, nothing really new to report. We still anticipate FirstNet to be awarded by the end of Q1. We definitely view it, we have and we continue to view it as an incremental opportunity. There's no revenue at all in 2017, as you wouldn't expect, that's contemplated with FirstNet. And, you know, we're still actively in the game, and we'll see how it unfolds. I think the opportunity there for us will be, or could be around broadband-enabled devices, mobile apps, software services, and I think we're well positioned there, especially given the coverage in the US and the domain expertise around public safety. So, that's really the long and short of it. We'll see what happens over the next few months. And what was your second question?
Tim Long (Senior Equity Analyst)
It was OpEx related to the two acquisitions.
Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)
OpEx? So, Spillman-
Tim Long (Senior Equity Analyst)
No, it was, it was more the revenue, you know, what kind of revenue impact we could have and what it could do to growth rate? Thanks.
Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah, so the acquisitions obviously are contemplated in the guidance for full year 2017. Spillman is about $50 million a year. And I think that the important part of that and those acquisitions is you know, we have a services business now that's 40% of total revenue. When we take Software and Services, I think it's about 43% or 44%. You will see us continue to invest both organically and look opportunistically inorganically around Software and Services. So, the larger the LMR platform, and you saw our Product segment there, the broader the footprint, that's a greater opportunity to monetize on services, managed services, support services. We'll always be on the lookout for acquisitions that would be Airwave-like in their attractive characteristics, where we can operate and take ownership of those networks.
So, I'm very pleased with the strategy and the execution of it. And also, we've talked about, right, going from critical communications to critical intelligence. And the critical intelligence is having a better footprint and incumbency in the command center, and Spillman hits the sweet spot, among others with ECW, in filling out that portfolio. So I think we're well positioned going forward.
Tim Long (Senior Equity Analyst)
Okay. Thank you.
Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)
Sure.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from Kulbinder Garcha with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Kulbinder Garcha (Managing Director)
Thanks. I joined the call a little bit late, but maybe you answered this. Can you just say whether you've outlined what the impact of acquisitions is in this year's revenues for the various acquisitions that have closed and year-over-year? That's one thing, so I'm trying to think about your organic growth rate. And then the second thing is on the cost-cutting side, I heard talk about further OpEx reductions. Just over a long-term period of time, you guys have done very well in taking cost out. Is there still this approach that you could grow the top line, low single digits, and keep OpEx flat or even continue to bring it down, or are we at the end of that kind of process? Thanks.
Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah, Kulbinder, so in the acquisitions, just noteworthy to talk about the two most important. Airwave is flat year-over-year, at about $460 million. That's contemplated in our guidance, and I just mentioned a few minutes earlier that Spillman, the most recent acquisition in Q4, is about $50 million of annualized revenues. Obviously, that is contemplated in our full year guidance.
Gino Bonanotte (EVP and CFO)
Yeah, the only thing to add, Kulbinder, if you were late to the call, as Greg articulated earlier, we expect iDEN to be a $50 million headwind in 2017.
Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)
If you're doing the math, the puts and takes.
Tim Long (Senior Equity Analyst)
Okay, okay.
Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah, from an OpEx standpoint, I'm really pleased with what we've done. We achieved the organic reductions that we set out to do in the beginning of the year. And we will take OpEx down again, anticipated to do that in 2017. Altogether, probably about $20 million or $25 million, but that includes absorbing $40 million of acquisitions. So we continue to wring further efficiencies and higher productivity out of the footprint of the business. And leverage is positive because it flows through, and as we're growing again, and at a very significant organic growth rate in Q4 of 4%, and we do contemplate continued organic growth in 2017, I think we're set up well from a leverage and flow-through standpoint.
Tim Long (Senior Equity Analyst)
Thank you.
Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)
Sure.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from Keith Housum with Northcoast Research. Please go ahead.
Keith Housum (Managing Director and Research Analyst)
Good afternoon, guys. First question for you is more housekeeping. In your FY 17 guidance, what's your share repurchase assumption for the year?
Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)
It's about 50% of operating cash flow if we look at the framework that we outlined. So when you run the numbers on that, it's about $600 million to be used for either share repurchase or acquisition, depending upon how we wanna take opportunities that present themselves in front of the business. The other thing, Keith, I'd say is, it's a framework, not a prescription. So as we think about it, that's kind of the guidepost of the way we think about it from this point going forward, but we'll look at opportunities as they come, and Gino and I will make the decisions accordingly. We have a very flexible balance sheet, and remember, this business is, the cash flow is strong. It's $1 billion plus a year going forward. I think we have the flexibility to do what we need to do.
Keith Housum (Managing Director and Research Analyst)
Yep. Okay. And then more of a theoretical question for you here. I know it's kind of tough to answer, but I've gotta ask it. You know, obviously, we've got a change in administration here. We have a new SEC head, and there's some discussion of tax reform and border taxes and things of that nature. But just in general, how are you guys thinking about the change in administration and how it may impact the business?
Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)
So early days, obviously, two weeks into the president's presidency, but I'm cautiously optimistic. I think the favorable trends to us. So a few things. Corporate tax reform reduction is obviously the prospects of that is a positive. And the notion of less red tape and less regulation also is a positive, but those two things apply to all businesses. I think what's unique to us with this administration is it appears that they have a strong priority around law enforcement and security, and I think those themes and trends could prove to be favorable to us. We'll see supporting us going forward. Obviously, it's very early. There's other things around trade, immigration. You know that two-thirds of our revenue is North America.
If we take examples of China, which gets a lot of news and noise, China is about 3% of our overall revenue now. It was down over 20% last year. This year, we're contemplating it to be flat to down, and the management of our business there, even though it's a significant opportunity, we've thought about it in the context of the guidance we've provided you. So I think we have it sized pretty well and I'm cautiously optimistic about some of the opportunities that we may be presented with.
Keith Housum (Managing Director and Research Analyst)
Great. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. We'll go next to George Notter from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
George Notter (Managing Director of Equity Research)
Can you hear me?
Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)
Good afternoon, George.
George Notter (Managing Director of Equity Research)
Yeah, I'm turning off the mute here. So, great. If, if I can ask about product growth, you guys are talking about organic product growth this year, but, I guess I'm curious about, you know, where you see the biggest levers in driving that organic product growth. Is that mainly North America? And, you know, I know there were some changes being made in the sales organization, in terms of, you know, analytics exercises to kind of focus your selling effort. I know you guys are focused more on verticals. I think there may have been even some pricing changes, but can you kind of talk about the big levers on, on product growth? Thanks.
Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah, maybe Jack and I will tag team this, but we're- I'm very pleased with where we are on it. Q4 was strong. It was led by - by North America. By the way, we had a very good Q4 in PCR, or we call it Professional and Commercial Radio. So that quarter for that line of business was better than several of the last quarters. So I was very pleased with the performance of Jack Molloy's team. I think that we had growth in North America for product sales. We also had growth in Asia PAC. I think that was commensurately offset by, obviously, the dramatic weakness macroeconomically in in Latin America and the first half weakness of EMEA.
But overall, I like the position that we're in, and I think that we'll have product segment sales growth for 2017, and there's opportunities that are in front of us in each region.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from Rod Hall with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Speaker 15
Yeah, hi. Thanks for taking my question. This is Ashwin on behalf of Rod. Comment on your visibility, probably beyond Q1. Do you feel more comfortable now than you were, you know, at the same point last year?
Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)
We do. I think we've continually done a better job of managing the funnel and sizing up demand and risk adjusting. Backlog, as we talked about, both year-over-year and sequentially, is up. Aged backlog is up pretty handsomely. So I think we have as good a view as we've ever had, quite frankly, from a visibility standpoint into the business as we sit here today.
Speaker 15
You know, just more specifically on the U.S., if we exclude Spillman and other acquisitions, do you still anticipate to grow revenue here in the U.S.?
Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)
Yes, we do.
Speaker 15
Great. Thank you.
Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from Stanley Kovler with Citi Research. Please go ahead.
Stanley Kovler (VP and Senior Analyst)
Yes, thank you. I wanted to just follow up a little bit more on the Product segment, and I have a follow-up. So with respect to Product, I just wanted to get a better sense of where we are within the backlog as far as the aging of the backlog and some of the deals that have been there for some time and what impact that's having on the current revenue trends in product. And within that, if you can also help us understand, in your installed base, is it a matter of the fleet of products that your customers have that's getting old, that's driving some of the end device product revenue?
And then the final piece of that product question would be, I just wanna better understand the software elements of product. It sounded like when you add software to services, it, it would increase to 43%-44% of revenue. So maybe you can just reiterate what the product versus software mix in that overall product pie is. Thank you so much.
Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)
Well, okay, so I'll let me make sure I can try to capture everything, and if I don't, Stanley, follow up. But we talked about that services, which includes installation services, is 40% of our business for 2016. So when you add Software in, of a few hundred million, it takes it to about 43%. That's a 2016 view. I think there's a number of things that are driving demand for our business. Some of it is age of the technology, and we refresh it, but a lot of it is upgrading it in current releases. It's the need for newer, digitally more spectrally efficient radios with more feature functionality.
Public safety has always remained high in the value chain of mission-critical communications, particularly in developed countries, certainly in North America. I think that continues to be a strong component of overall demand. Things around border security, immigration, lone wolf terrorism in other parts of the country, all lend itself to the need for mission-critical, encrypted, secure, end-to-end, reliable, redundant, always-on communications. Very different than a smartphone, very different than a cellular network. And in these times, I think there are a variety of things that remind people and reinforce the need to invest in land mobile radio. I think each time we put in a system, we see, Stanley, many customers still buying 10- and 15-year maintenance contracts on these systems and platforms that are going in.
So, in addition to that, the more systems that are in, people think about monetizing and upgrading from a services contract and adding other software to it. So there's a lot of different factors, it depends by region, but there's a number of drivers from a demand standpoint that I think reflected very favorably in Q4 and reflect the fact that we continue organically, that this business will grow in 2017, by the way, in both segments of Product and Software. I wasn't sure I totally understood the backlog question you asked, but I would simply say that it's up. First of all, it was up in three or four regions, and it was up in Product and Services, and it was up year-over-year and sequentially, and aged backlog was up very nicely.
The aged backlog increase, in combination with improved process that I talked about earlier, gives us higher confidence in the visibility in hitting the growth targets that we outlined for top and bottom line guidance.
Stanley Kovler (VP and Senior Analyst)
Thanks, I appreciate it. Yeah, the aged backlog question was the key there, so I appreciate the detail. I also just wanted to follow up on some of the more commercial trends. If you can just walk us through globally, what you have done in PCR both in Q4 and what the outlook is in that segment of the business for 2017. Thank you very much.
Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)
Well, we don't guide by that PCR segment specifically. We haven't, and we don't expect to. What I would say, Stanley, though, is Jack Molloy's team is executing very well. We grew in all, well, not thematically. We did grow in all four regions in Q4. It's the best quarter I've seen in the PCR, the Professional and Commercial Radio business, in several quarters. It's a combination of improving the product portfolio, better execution, new management, particularly in the EMEA. Viv Francis has done a fantastic job there. And I just think that the team is executing well, the portfolio is stronger than it was a year ago, and I think it's a good opportunity for us.
It was a little spotty historically on execution, and historically we had a product gap or two on the very low end. I think Bruce Brda's team on portfolio and Molloy's team on sales coverage and execution have done some significant things to solidify that business, since its history in the last year or so.
Stanley Kovler (VP and Senior Analyst)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from Paul Silverstein with Cowen and Company. Please go ahead.
Paul Silverstein (Managing Director)
Thanks, guys. I'll actually try to ask one question, but it's a broad one, and I did hear the responses to the previous question. So that said, where's the biggest delta? You know, Greg, I heard you say that visibility is the best it's ever been, and you articulated the reasons. But when you think about where things could go differently from your current expectations, for better or worse, what's the one or two things that could drive greater growth or have the most impact in terms of greater growth or coming up short?
Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)
So, Paul, good question. I should just say that, I think that we've done a much better job in the rhythm of, meeting or beating expectations, and that's for a whole host of reasons. But I think it's important just to mention at the top, that that remains front and center on us, taking forecasting very seriously, and all of us, individually and collectively, having every expectation to deliver on the commitments that we've outlined. That said, as context, you know, things in the unknown in 2017, you can never predict FX. We've certainly seen that, in 2016.
We had Brexit, that I don't think a lot of people predicted in June, July, but we were still able to hit guidance, both right exactly in the midpoint of revenue for 2016, and overachieved at the high end of EPS. And I think that's a credit to Gino and the finance team, as the way they kind of baked in the volatility or potential variability of Airwave in fiscal 2016. But Paul for sure, one of the unknowns is FX. That's really the one that comes to mind, top of mind. I think, you know, you get into, you know, could there be an economic downturn, or a trade war? Maybe. But again, 65% of our revenue is North America.
And when I look at, let's take Mexico and China, since they are the most talked about. China is 3% of our business, and we're forecasting it to be flat to slightly down. Mexico is less than 1% of our business. So, despite all of the chatter politically between the U.S. and Mexico, the fact of the matter is, our business is very small there. If anything, I think there's opportunity there for us. But, so I think the answer to your question, the best thing is FX is the biggest wild card, and economic volatility associated with the trade war would be the other one.
Paul Silverstein (Managing Director)
Greg, if I may, just a clarification on the previous question. In terms of the plethora of drivers that you have, can you remind us, what is the average age of, you know, since there is an average, of your, on the product side, and what percentage - I recognize it's only one of the drivers, but what percentage is at or near that end of life?
Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)
So, Paul, I don't know the answer to that. I can tell you that there's just so many different systems. There's literally thousands of systems installed around the world. I think the last count I remember, there's about 11,000 to 12,000 systems globally. They vary so wildly, I wouldn't be able to estimate an average. So I don't know the answer to that.
Paul Silverstein (Managing Director)
Got it. I appreciate it. Thank you.
Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)
Sure.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from Vijay Bhagavath with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Vijay Bhagavath (VP and Research Analyst)
Yeah, thanks. Yeah, hi, Greg, Gino.
Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)
How are you?
Gino Bonanotte (EVP and CFO)
Hey, Vijay.
Vijay Bhagavath (VP and Research Analyst)
Yeah, a question and a sub-question, if I may. The question is, you know, software and recurring revenues is an important part of your fundamental story. I'd like to get kind of a state of the state. How would you view software and recurring revenues, both product-wise and also impact the model, you know, as we head into the year? And then the sub-question would be on product mix and seasonality. Now, with the new administration, you know, new heads of Fed agencies, et cetera, do you anticipate any changes in mix, any, you know, the seasonal variations this year in your Fed business? Thank you.
Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)
In terms of annuity revenue or recurring revenue, about 25% of our 2016 revenue is recurring revenue or has the profile of recurring revenue. And we love that, obviously, from a managed services and software standpoint. We're going to be very flexible on business model going forward, and we'd like to accommodate customers in different ways to sell them solutions flexibly. Could be selling it as a product, could be selling it as a service, but we'll price flexibly to accommodate the demand requirements of our customer set. From a seasonality standpoint, specifically with the US Federal business, I have to give a shout-out to specifically Mark McNulty here at the US Federal Business that runs it, here. He's done a great job, he and his team.
We had a very good year in 2016. Double-digit growth above $500 million. As we think about it this year, we're thinking about it being comparable to that number figure, probably flat to low single-digit growth coming off such a very good year in 2016.
Vijay Bhagavath (VP and Research Analyst)
Perfect. Thank you.
Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)
Sure.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from Andrew DeGasperi with Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Andrew DeGasperi (Equity Research Analyst)
Thanks. Greg, first, maybe can you give us, like, a situation, maybe in the UK, where ESN, let's say, gets delayed in a meaningful way? I mean, should we consider that as a positive for your LMR business there? And then secondly, Gino, can you maybe explain the unfavorable currency adjustment in your backlog? It included $250 million on a sequential basis in Q4 versus $50 million in Q3. I know the pound obviously is a part of that, but is there any other currency that you would sort of highlight?
Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah, in terms of ESN, it has been delayed to mid-2018. But in terms of our responsibility for ESN, we're on track. We're our deliverables are progressing well against the Lot 2 requirements, which is software for apps in the data center. We remain very closely aligned with the UK Home Office, so I think it's good. Now, I did mention earlier that with the delay, there's probably about $25 million of revenue that we had hoped for in 2017 that looks like it has gotten deferred outside of that. But nonetheless, we continue to work well with the UK Home Office. I think it's too early to speculate on impact on Airwave.
We'll just continue to work closely with the customer, making sure, obviously, that Airwave performs the way it needs to, and it has, and I think it will continue to. From our expectation from a contract standpoint, we're very pleased with the Airwave acquisition. We are equally cognizant of doing everything we can for the UK Home Office on ESN, and we'll manage those interdependencies.
Gino Bonanotte (EVP and CFO)
With respect to the $215 million adjustment at the end of Q4, that was predominantly, primarily related to the pound.
Andrew DeGasperi (Equity Research Analyst)
Great. Thank you.
Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)
Thanks, Andrew.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. It appears we have no further questions at this time. I will turn the floor back over to Mr. Chris Kutsor, Vice President of Investor Relations, for any additional or closing remarks.
Chris Kutsor (VP of Investor Relations)
No, thank you for joining us today. We'll be, we'll talk soon.
Operator (participant)
Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. A replay of this call will be available over the Internet in approximately three hours. The website address is www.motorolasolutions.com/investor. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines at this time.