Motorola Solutions - Q4 2019

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good afternoon, and thank you for holding. Welcome to the Motorola Solutions Q4 2019 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time. The presentation material and additional financial tables are currently posted on the Motorola Solutions Investor Relations website. In addition, a replay of this call will be available approximately 3 hours after the conclusion of the call over the Internet. The website address is www.motorolasolutions.com/investor. At this time, all participants have been placed in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. You will have an opportunity to ask questions after today's presentation. I would now like to actually introduce Mr. Tim Yocum, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Yocum, you may begin your conference.

Tim Yocum (Head of Investor Relations)

Good afternoon. Welcome to our 2019 Q4 earnings call. With me today are Greg Brown, Chairman and CEO; Gino Bonanotte, Executive Vice President and CFO; Jack Molloy, Executive Vice President, Products and Sales; and Kelly Mark, Executive Vice President, Software and Services. Greg and Gino will review our results along with commentary, and Jack and Kelly will join for Q&A. We've posted an earnings presentation and news release at motorolasolutions.com/investor. These materials include GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations for your reference. During the call, we reference non-GAAP financial results, including those in our outlook, unless otherwise noted. A number of forward-looking statements will be made during this presentation and during the Q&A portion of the call. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from these forward-looking statements.

Information about factors that could cause such differences can be found in today's earnings news release, in the comments made during the conference call, in the Risk Factors section of our 2018 annual report, Form 10-K, and in our other reports and filings with the SEC. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statement. With that, I'll turn it over to Greg.

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

Thanks, Tim. Good afternoon, and thanks, everybody, for joining us today. I'm gonna start off by sharing a few thoughts about the overall business before Gino takes us through the results and outlook. First, Q4 was an outstanding quarter, capping another record year for the company. We grew revenue 5%, expanded operating margins by 80 basis points, generated $795 million of operating cash flow. Additionally, we ended the quarter with our highest backlog position ever of $11.3 billion, up $659 million year-over-year, and up $217 million sequentially. Second, our full year 2019 results exemplify the strength of our business.

In our product segment, we grew revenue mid-single digits, driven by a second consecutive year of record land mobile radio sales in North America, as well as strong growth in our video security business. In software and services, we grew revenue double digits and expanded operating margins by 330 basis points on strong demand for our Command Center software solutions and continued growth in our services business. And finally, as I look to 2020, our record backlog position, coupled with the investments in our Command Center software and video security portfolios, position us well for another year of organic revenue growth, operating margin expansion, and strong free cash flow generation. I'll now turn the call over to Gino to provide additional details on Q4 results and 2020 outlook before returning for some closing thoughts.

Gino Bonanotte (Former EVP and CFO)

Thank you, Greg. Q4 includes revenue of $2.4 billion, up 5%, including $82 million of revenue from acquisitions and $17 million of currency headwinds. GAAP operating earnings of $590 million, up $74 million, and operating margins of 24.8% of sales, compared to 22.9% in the year-ago quarter. Non-GAAP operating earnings of $707 million, up $57 million or 9%, and non-GAAP operating margins of 29.7% of sales, up 90 basis points from 28.8%, driven by higher sales and gross margin, partially offset by higher OpEx from acquisitions. GAAP earnings per share of $1.39, compared to $2.44 in the year-ago quarter.

The current year quarter includes a non-cash charge of $1.53 per share related to actions taken to de-risk $1 billion in pension obligations. Non-GAAP EPS of $2.94, up 12% from $2.63 last year on higher operating earnings and a lower effective tax rate. OpEx in Q4 was $523 million, up $40 million versus last year, primarily due to acquisitions. The Q4 effective tax rate was 22%, compared to 23.5% in the prior year. For the full year, revenue was $7.9 billion, up 7%, driven by growth in the Americas. Revenue from acquisitions was $312 million, and currency headwinds were $113 million.

GAAP operating earnings were $1.6 billion, up $326 million, or 26%, primarily driven by higher revenue and gross margin. Non-GAAP operating earnings were $2 billion, up $235 million or 14%. Non-GAAP operating margins were 25% of sales, up 130 basis points, driven by higher sales and gross margin, partially offset by higher OpEx from acquisitions. GAAP earnings per share was $4.95 compared to $5.62 in the prior year. The current year included a non-cash charge of $1.53 per share, related to actions taken to de-risk $1 billion in pension obligations. Non-GAAP EPS was $7.96, up 11% from $7.15 in 2018, on higher sales and operating earnings, partially offset by a higher effective tax rate and a higher diluted share count in 2019.

For the full year, OpEx was $2 billion, up $158 million versus last year, primarily due to acquisitions. The effective tax rate for 2019 was 22.4%, compared to 21.7% in the prior year. Turning to cash flow. Q4 operating cash flow was $795 million, compared to $812 million in the prior year, and free cash flow was $736 million, compared with $743 million in the prior year. For the full year, operating cash flow was $1.8 billion, up $748 million, and free cash flow was $1.6 billion, up $697 million.

The increase in cash flow was driven by the impact of the $500 million pension contribution made in 2018, higher operating earnings, and improved working capital. Capital allocation for 2019 included $709 million of acquisitions, $379 million in cash dividends, and $315 million in share repurchases at an average price of $137.35. Additionally, during the year, we repaid the remaining $400 million balance on the term loan used to acquire Avigilon. We refinanced approximately $800 million of senior unsecured debt, extending our debt maturity profile. We settled the initial 5-year convertible note with Silver Lake, 1 year ahead of its maturity, and extended the relationship with a new 5-year convertible note that expires in 2024.

And finally, we reduced $1 billion in pension obligations through a lump sum window, paying approximately $836 million out of pension plan assets to participants who elected this offer. Moving to segment results. Q4 products and systems integration sales were $1.7 billion, up $3 million, with growth in the Americas and Asia Pac, offset by a decline in the Middle East and Africa. Revenue from acquisitions in the quarter was $38 million, and currency headwinds were $9 million. Q4 product and systems segment operating margins were $484 million, or 28.9% of sales, flat with the prior year. Higher gross margin in the current year was offset by higher OpEx, primarily from acquisitions.

Some notable Q4 wins and achievements in the segment include a $64 million P25 order for the State of Arkansas, a $36 million P25 order from Thurston County, Washington, a $24 million P25 order for Luzerne County, Pennsylvania, and $5 million in fixed video security wins for government customers. Additionally, during the quarter, we launched our next-generation P25 radio, APX NEXT, as well as our Avigilon AI-powered H5 camera line. For the full year, products and systems integration revenue was $5.3 billion, up $229 million, or 5%, on growth in the Americas. Revenue from acquisitions was $157 million, and FX headwinds were $54 million.

Products and systems integration operating earnings were $1.2 billion, or 22% of sales, up slightly from the prior year on higher sales and gross margins, partially offset by higher OpEx related to acquisitions. Moving to the software and services segment. Q4 revenue was $704 million, up $120 million, or 21% from last year, driven by growth in all regions. Revenue from acquisitions in the quarter was $44 million, and currency headwinds were $8 million. Operating earnings were $223 million or 31.7% of sales, up 310 basis points from last year, driven by higher sales and gross margins and improved OpEx leverage.

Notable Q4 wins in the segment include $8 million command center suite order from Tulare County, California, $6 million command center software suite order from the Irvine, California Police Department, $6 million for a computer-aided dispatch system for the City of Atlanta, Georgia, a $68 million P25 multi-year service contract with the State of Victoria in Australia, a $29 million P25 multi-year service contract with the State of Connecticut, and a $24 million P25 multi-year service contract with the U.S. Navy. For the full year, software and services revenue was $2.6 billion, up $315 million or 14%, with growth in the Americas and EMEA. Revenue from acquisitions was $155 million, and FX headwinds were $59 million.

Software and services operating earnings in 2019 were $802 million, or 31.4% of sales, up 330 basis points versus the prior year, driven by higher sales and gross margins and improved OpEx leverage. Looking at regional results, Americas Q4 revenue was $1.7 billion, up 10%, driven by broad-based growth across LMR services, video security, and command center software. For the full year, Americas revenue was $5.7 billion, up 12%, with growth in both segments. EMEA Q4 revenue was $448 million, down 9%, due to large system deployments in the Middle East and Africa in the prior year, partially offset by growth in Europe.

For the full year, EMEA revenue was $1.6 billion, down 3%, due to FX headwinds and declines in the Middle East and Africa, partially offset by growth in Europe. In Asia Pac, Q4 revenue was $214 million, up 6% or $12 million, driven by growth in Australia. For the full year, Asia Pac revenue was $657 million, down 3%, driven by China and FX headwinds. Moving to backlog, ending backlog was $11.3 billion, up $659 million or 6% compared to last year. Sequentially, backlog was up $217 million, driven by growth in software and services.

Software and services backlog was up $699 million or 9% compared to last year, driven by multi-year agreements in North America, as well as the ESN contract extension. Sequentially, backlog was up $261 million, with growth in all regions. Products and systems integration segment backlog was down $40 million, or 1% compared to last year, driven by the Middle East and Africa. Sequentially, backlog was down $44 million, with growth in the Americas, offset by declines in EMEA and Asia Pac. Turning to our outlook, we expect Q1 sales to be up approximately 2%, with non-GAAP EPS between $1.30 and $1.35. This assumes an effective tax rate of approximately 20% and a weighted average diluted share count of approximately 176 million shares.

For the full year, we expect revenue growth of approximately 4%, with non-GAAP EPS between $8.65 and $8.80 per share. This full year outlook assumes an effective tax rate of approximately 23%, weighted average diluted share count between 176 and 177 million shares, and full year OpEx down $60 million versus 2019. We expect full year operating cash flow to be approximately $1.9 billion. I'd now like to turn the call back over to Greg.

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

Thanks, Gino, and let me just close with a few final thoughts. First, 2019 was an outstanding year. Our Land Mobile Radio business had a second consecutive record year in North America, while our video security and command center software businesses both exceeded our expectations. Second, I was particularly pleased by the performance of software and services during the year, which now makes up roughly a third of our overall sales and is a proxy for our recurring revenue. The demand for our integrated Command Center Software Suite drove strong revenue and backlog growth in our software business, while our services business grew mid-single digits organically, led by another strong year in North America. Additionally, we expanded operating margins in the segment by 330 basis points, which drove overall operating margin expansion of 130 basis points for the company.

Finally, I think we're very well positioned for another strong year in 2020. We serve large addressable markets, we have a seasoned team focused on consistent execution, and the investments we've made in North America, along with our Command Center software and video security portfolios, will continue to drive organic revenue growth, operating margin expansion, EPS growth of at least 2x revenue growth, and strong free cash flow over the long term. I'll now turn it back over to Tim.

Tim Yocum (Head of Investor Relations)

Thank you, Greg. Before we begin taking questions, I'd like to remind callers to limit themselves to one question and one follow-up, to accommodate as many participants as possible. Operator, would you please remind our callers on the line how to ask a question?

Operator (participant)

Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. At this time, if you have a question or comment, please press Star, then one on your telephone keypad. If at any point your question is answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing Star, then two. We do ask that while you pose your question, please pick up your handset to provide optimum sound quality. Thank you. Our first question will come from Tim Long with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Tim Long (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

... Thank you. Yeah, just one and then the follow-up. I'll give you them both. You guys can pick. So first, maybe on the, you know, the targets for 2021, the $9 billion in revenues and $10 in EPS. Talk a little bit how we're gonna get there. It seems like, you know, given the strong margins and OpEx management, the EPS seems a little easier than the revenues. But if you could just touch on that a little bit. And secondly, it might be related, you know, that organic growth in Q1 is kind of low. I'm wondering if there's other large deals that impact that, kind of like they did in Q4.

And then also looking at the 4% for the year, you do have a little bit of M&A help, and you have, you know, bigger contribution from, software and, and video. So just curious if, if something's going on in the LMR side of the business when you look into the, the full year of 2020. Thank you.

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah. So first, in terms of the concept of 9 and 10 in 2021, I think I've been pretty consistent in saying approximately 9 and approximately 10 in 2021. Tim, it was always meant to be directional and not prescriptive or specific guidance. And as you mentioned, I think it also includes and contemplates both organic and inorganic. I think that you see the guide for both Q1 and the full year in 2020 on top of what we did in 2019, and I like the progression and the path that we're on. You're right, that if you extrapolate that out, it will likely be closer to approximately 10 on the bottom than on the top. But again, it contemplates both organic and inorganic, and we'll see how that develops.

In terms of Q1, specifically, I would just say that a couple of things. We're coming off of two consecutive record years. The previous year comp in Q1 of last year was 13% growth. And as we referenced, and have been consistent, that included the timing of a $40 million Fed order in Q1, that when you normalize for the timing of that, I think you feel a little bit better. The linearity of Q1 is consistent with the last several years, it's about 20%. It's always our smallest quarter, and with the exception of the anomaly of last year, I think it's consistent and in line with the way our business generally flows.

The final point I'd make, too, is that, our all-in, 4% growth for 2020, is generally balanced with a little bit less than 4% growth in the H1, 4% growth in the H2, and the 4% overall number's consistent with what I mentioned, a quarter ago. From a composition standpoint, we still expect growth overall in LMR all-in with services in 2020, and we believe video security will grow again. We expect that, in the 15% range, and command center software in high teens. So all in all, I think balanced, strong across, multiple platforms, but that gives you the color of, Q1 in 2020, as well as, your 2021 question.

Tim Long (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, thank you very much for the color.

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question will be from George Notter with Jefferies. Please go ahead. Please go ahead, George. Perhaps your line is muted on your end. Great. We'll move to our next question.

George Notter (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

I'm sorry about that.

Operator (participant)

There you go. We can hear you now, sir.

George Notter (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Can you hear me? Great. Apologies. All right. So on Avigilon, you know, you've been talking about a 15% growth target for 2019. Just to confirm, you guys hit that or beat that? I'd be curious what that business grew for you last year. And then, again, you mentioned 15% kind of growth aspiration for this year, again, in video. I'd love to get an update on kind of where you are in terms of investing in that business and starting to get leverage in terms of your government opportunities, international opportunities. Just give us an update on the progress there. Thanks.

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

So just overall on the business, and then Jack could comment on the investments and the other composition of your question. But we did grow 15%, actually a little bit better. But so it exceeded our expectations in 2019. I'm really pleased with the acquisition, and I'm particularly pleased with Malloy, John Kedzierski, all the Avigilon team, of the way it's been integrated, the way we're investing, the way we're refreshing, the way we're expanding go-to-market. And we do expect, again, growth around 15% for that business, which I remind you, is about 3x the market.

Jack Molloy (Executive VP, Products and Sales)

Yeah, I think the only color I'd add, Greg, just, Greg, just in terms of the investment, George, we, we invested fairly significantly in terms of go-to-market in North America in the Q1 of last year. I think that helped attribute to the momentum. As Greg indicated, we picked up in the H2 of the year. The other piece of it is it's obviously a very innovation-driven market, but we launched, we had a relatively large-scale launch with our AI-powered H5 camera line. And again, the Q4 success and even what we're seeing in terms of pipeline build is very encouraging. The last piece of it is we formulated a government sales team, and we did. Gino made mention of it, we did $5 million in sales.

Half of that was in the federal government market, which is really the longest selling cycle. So all in, we're encouraged, in terms of the markets. Internationally?

... One of the things investments we're making now is really focused on routes to market, taking our go-to-market coverage and getting into new countries that the Avigilon was not in when we acquired them. So I think some work to do there, but, but definitely, I think some opportunity as well.

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah, just George, one other thing, just to compliment the team. One of the verticals that I think has been the strongest performing is education and the notion of safe schools. I think it's been the sweet spot of demand for Avigilon, and Jack and team are going to make even more investments to expand our—the width and breadth of our reach in that vertical nationwide. I think it's front and center with so many school systems and countywide education systems, this whole notion of safe students and doing the necessary protection around perimeter and anomaly detection and motion detection. So we're investing more in that vertical, and we're investing in integrating the end-to-end Avigilon video security and analytics system integrated with our existing land mobile radio.

So stay tuned on that front for more updates over time in both the education vertical and a few others. But, that's been high demand for us.

George Notter (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Thank you.

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you, George.

Operator (participant)

Our next question is from Keith Housum with Northcoast Research. Please go ahead.

Keith Housum (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Good morning, guys. Gino, a question for you, just a little bit more details on the numbers. It looks like R&D stepped up quite a bit this quarter. Is that kind of a new run rate to think about that? And is there specific areas, I guess, you're expanding the R&D in order to capture, I guess, more future opportunities?

Gino Bonanotte (Former EVP and CFO)

Yeah, as we talked about the increase, Keith, was attributable to acquisitions. We will continue to rationalize spend. We have made incremental investments in our growth businesses. Both Jack mentioned go-to-market, as well as additional investments in R&D with the new camera, as well as in command center software, and we continue to drive costs out of the overall business. So, you know, we—I talked about a $60 million reduction in 2020. So what you're seeing in 2019 is really a function of the acquisitions coming on, and as we work through cost structures across the acquisitions and more so across the underlying business, you'll see that come down.

Keith Housum (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Great. And then a quick follow-up. In terms of the license plate reader business and the WatchGuard, can you guys give a bit of color on how those acquisitions are performing for you?

Jack Molloy (Executive VP, Products and Sales)

Yeah, sure. Keith, it's Jack. So related to WatchGuard, one of the encouraging things we have with WatchGuard and with VaaS is really the ability to first bundle mobile in-car video with license plate recognition software and ultimately look at those as a platform. So, Q4 last year, we announced our 4RE mobile video WatchGuard that's integrated with license plate recognition that's tied to our LEARN database, which is the biggest license plate recognition database in the market. Early returns from customers have told us this gives them better evidentiary management as well as it improves officer safety. So we're encouraged by both of these, and I'd remind you that WatchGuard is the leading player in in-car video.

We see more and more of the body-worn and in-car video sales being tethered together, and obviously, our go-to-market scale in North America is significant. So we really like both of those acquisitions.

Keith Housum (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Great. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question will be from Adam Tindle with Raymond James.

Adam Tindle (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Okay, thanks, and good evening. Greg, I know it's not a normal practice to talk about individual contracts, but the State of Florida LMR deal was a landmark one that you've talked about in the past as an example of kind of the threat of LTE cannibalization being overblown. Seems like some potentially unattractive terms being asked of you based on what's being reported on that, and I don't think you've come to an agreement. But just hoping for a little bit more color why. I'm not sure if those terms are boilerplate, they've been agreed to in the past, and what has changed to see such a big deal that seems like it may be falling through.

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah, Adam, thanks. So first of all, I mean, just to paint the picture and remind everybody, we did anticipate getting State of Florida. We didn't. I think it was largely a result of over a year and a half of delays and lawsuits and appeals, primarily by the incumbent competitor. On top of that, there's been some administration management changes, but I think it's fair to say that there was fluidity in scope and some design assumptions. Now, having said that, we have an extensive presence throughout the state already. We'd still look forward to participating in what the State of Florida decides to do next. The project, by the way, was never in backlog. While we did anticipate signing it, we didn't.

It was going to be a managed service, so it would have been, I think about $13 million-$15 million a year over several years. I think we're going to stay engaged with the State of Florida. We would like to think there's still opportunity to reengage and participate in that going forward. In terms of overall demand for LMR, as I mentioned, we've had two record years back-to-back. You know, we've had the State of Pennsylvania, we had the State of Iowa, and there's a whole, we had the largest LMR deal in the history of the company in Canada. So, LMR remains strong, and these deals continue to come in, and they're usually accompanied with 7- and 10- and 12-year maintenance contracts as well. I think the State of Florida had a lot of factors involved.

We would still like to participate and hope we have a role going forward, but that's really the state of play at this point in time.

Adam Tindle (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Okay, that's helpful. And, just as a follow-up, kind of circling back on some of the things that you said in the prepared remarks at the end. The 2020 guidance, I think, implies somewhere around low double-digit operating profit dollar growth on 4% revenue growth. I know that leverage is something that you've done in years past, but largely through a lot of cost optimization programs. And I think the composition of profit dollar growth and leverage is becoming more a function of scaling the software and services piece. So I'm hoping that maybe you could just touch on that dynamic, that change in composition of profit dollar growth and leverage, and double-click on where you see software and services margins moving to in 2020.

Jack Molloy (Executive VP, Products and Sales)

So, that was a lot, but, you know, we still think the business can-- we expect it to grow all in 4%. We do think that video security solutions will grow at 15%, and command center software in the high teens. As I've commented before, as it relates to China, our China revenue continues to fall off, largely as expected, in an accelerated way. You know, just to contextualize that, Mainland China was about $120 million of revenue in 2019. I think that's gonna be cut in half in 2020. More pronounced, not unanticipated, but more pronounced and reflective of our strategy around China, and we've been de-emphasizing that theater for the last several years. So I think we will continue to grow organically.

I think LMR continues to grow all in, inclusive of services, video security and command center software. I mentioned services will grow, should grow, mid-single digits. From an operating leverage standpoint, as Gino mentioned, we think OpEx goes down $60 million, largely normalized and optimized from G&A rationalization from acquisitions made previously. But software and services will continue to grow high single digit. That's what we anticipate. And from an operating margin standpoint, I think that software and services will be about 33%, expanding over 2019. And we would see and anticipate the product segment operating margin expanding as well.

Adam Tindle (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Very helpful. Thank you.

Jack Molloy (Executive VP, Products and Sales)

Sure.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Jim Suva with Citi Investment Research.

Jim Suva (SVP of Finance, Treasurer & Investor Relations)

Thank you. Just one clarification, then kind of a more detailed strategy question. The clarification question is, if I got my memory correct, which it could very well be wrong, the long-term guidance that you gave of the $9 billion sales and $10 in EPS, not guidance, but say, let's call it goal or whatever, for 2021, that does include unannounced M&A. But for the 2020 guidance for this year, the sales of 4% plus or minus some of the EPS, that does not include unannounced M&A that hasn't been announced yet. So that's kind of my clarification question.

Then my strategy question, Greg, when you look at running the company for 2020, what's kind of the maybe one or two variables to the upside or downside that you're taking a look at, whether it's state budgets or are there a couple big contract renewals from competitors or within yourself that come up for renewal, just so we can think about some of the key factors you're looking at for 2020? Thank you.

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

Sure. So Jim, your, your memory is correct. The approximate 9 and 10 does contemplate future acquisitions, and you're also correct that our 2020 guidance that we're confirming today does not. So you're right on that front. In terms of, you know, kind of overall levels and thinking about 2020, I like the fact that we have record backlog. I, I like the fact that more of the revenue is dimensionalized toward a recurring theme vis-à-vis software and services. I'm really pleased with Kelly Mark and Andrew Sinclair and Jack Malloy and John Kedzierski, and I don't say that conveniently or to be nice and give the commercial for those guys. They've done an excellent job on two of these growth strategies that are very critical to us going forward.

And at the same time, land mobile radio, all in, continues to be steady, product and services and will grow. The variables, you know, you always think about, is there a geopolitical event that could happen? Maybe. Who knows? The coronavirus is relatively... Maybe it isn't early in its stages. We'll see. We don't think that impacts us at this point in time, but we'll see how that plays out. You know, this is also an election year. And sometimes if there's a change in administration, that could provide a temporary pause or dislocation. I don't know if that's 2020 or 2021, but, you know, that's gonna be an interesting set of dynamics to watch that whole political theater unfold. I think overall state budgets in the U.S. are solid. I think the U.S. federal budgets are solid.

We've talked about tailwinds with the National Defense Authorization Act. FX is very muted for us in 2020 as we sit here today, maybe $10 million of headwind. So, I think our-

...Our guidance and our view is balanced, prudent, but I like the underlying strength of the business, the performance drivers, and the execution by which we're achieving.

Jim Suva (SVP of Finance, Treasurer & Investor Relations)

Thank you so much for the details. That's great. Thank you.

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question will come from Ben Bollin with Cleveland Research Company. Please go ahead.

Ben Bollin (Analyst and Partner)

Good evening, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to start, if you could just talk specific to public sector surveillance opportunities. Historically, it seems like Avigilon has disproportionately been weighted towards enterprise. How do you feel about the progress you're making? What's the visibility on large deal opportunities as it relates to public sector customers?

Jack Molloy (Executive VP, Products and Sales)

Ben, it's Jack. I made a comment earlier that we put a team that was specifically focused at state and local. Really, when we think about local, it's local, it's citywide video security systems. I think we've talked about before that we manage the City of Chicago, but just last year we had opportunities that we won in Cleveland and in Dallas as well. So we've got opportunities, we've got relationships. I'm actually very encouraged. What we typically see with citywide safe city opportunities, that they typically do a pilot in an area, particularly in the central business district or an area that's very hardened by crime, and build out. So the other kind of elegant thing when we secure those deals is there's a scalability that'll happen in 20...

This year, 2020 and 2021, as they make sustained investments in those networks as well.

Ben Bollin (Analyst and Partner)

Okay. In looking at Command Center, where do you think customers are in their PSAP modernization efforts? Is it still ultra-early innings and, you know, things get a lot better from here? Just any high-level thoughts on where that market is in its evolution.

Kelly Mark (Executive VP, Software and Services)

Ben, it's Kelly. I think it's still early innings on the PSAP modernization. Certainly, we're starting to see some moves with some of the larger cities out there in regards to building into the ESInet, as you probably heard us talk about it, which is the more advanced way to bring multimedia to the 911 call centers. But I'd say that's still early innings. The impact of that, eventually, it will drive churn of software because they'll have to update the software, which sort of sits downstream from that 911 call to be able to handle the multimedia. But that's also falls within the normal budget cycle that they have to prioritize. So it's not as if it will drive a tremendous acceleration, but certainly something that we'll see happen over the next many years.

Ben Bollin (Analyst and Partner)

Thanks, guys.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Paul Coster with J.P. Morgan.

Paul Coster (Former Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Yes, thanks for taking my question. Can you break out the, the full year growth by region? Give us some sense of, you know, how, if there's any differences between the regions.

Jack Molloy (Executive VP, Products and Sales)

Yeah. Hey, Paul, it's Jack. We'll—when you think about it, North America, last year, we grew, 13% in 2019, 7% in constant currency. This year in 2020... By the way, I do wanna note North America, it's particularly important that we grew across LMR, had tremendous success in command center software, as well as in our video security business. We actually expect continued growth across all platforms. We expect growth in North America, in the federal government area, in Canada, as well as in the U.S., and state and local. As we think about Europe, EMEA, last year, we had a, a... It's important to note, EMEA was down, in 2019, 3%. Most of that was driven really by a culmination of two things.

Two deals in the Middle East, two nationwide deployments, one in Northern Africa and one in the Middle East. They created a tough comp. Also, we were in a tough FX environment last year, but we did grow in Europe, both in Eastern Europe and Western Europe. In 2020, we expect the region in whole to grow, not only in Europe, but the Middle East and Africa as well. Then lastly, in Asia Pac, and I think Greg made mention of this, we expect Asia Pac to decline slightly this year, and really, that's driven by the fact that our revenue in China will be cut in half.

The rest of Asia Pac is fairly stable for us, but it's just the planned continued deterioration of revenue in China that really impacts Asia Pac.

Paul Coster (Former Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

And Greg, I take your point that a change in the administration might cause a pause in spending. What's happened in prior presidential cycles that you can call out as material, if anything?

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

Well, I mean, I think just in general, whether it's Republican or Democrat, it wasn't meant to be a partisan comment, but whenever there's a change, there's typically you go through a new cycle, they appoint new people and cabinet members, they reconstruct the budget. There may or may not be a continuing resolution. You know, the budget details need to be solidified, which could really are foundational to what they will spend the first few quarters after the election. I think that's what we've experienced in the past.

Jack Molloy (Executive VP, Products and Sales)

I think that's exactly right. The other piece of it is just what happens in the House and Senate, and are there changes there that might change budget priorities as well? But as Greg said, it's not. We've had very good years in Democratic administrations and very good years in Republican administrations.

... It's really just how quickly can they get the agency heads in place that can start to set the wheels in motion, for both our customers and our team.

Paul Coster (Former Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Makes sense. Thank you.

Jack Molloy (Executive VP, Products and Sales)

Thanks, Paul.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Paul Silverstein with TD Cowen.

Paul Silverstein (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Thanks. I appreciate you taking the questions. I appreciate that this might have been asked in different forms, but Gino, if I remember correctly, last year, you spoke about gross margin uplift being the largest driver of operating margin uplift, and with OpEx being relatively flatish, but not down, and you delivered on that. This year, you're talking about OpEx declining once again by $60 million. I don't think I heard you reference gross margin. If you did, I apologize, but what should we expect from gross margin relative to the opportunity for operating margin uplift for incremental leverage?

Gino Bonanotte (Former EVP and CFO)

Yeah, Paul, this is Gino. We did not mention it, but really, the expectation in the product segment is for gross margins to be comparable to what they were in 2019, and continued expansion in software and services from 2019 into 2020.

Paul Silverstein (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

All right. And as a follow-up, I appreciate that, both of you have done a very good job trying to herd the cats and keep expectations in line. So Greg, and Gino, I apologize if this goes in the other direction, but you're telling us that you expect China to be down by $60 million or so, to get cut in half. So starting out, if we normalize for China, your organic growth or your normalized growth looks more like 5%. And I'm asking, obviously, a longer-term question here. And then if I think about the growth you're putting up in command and control software and video of 15%-high teens, as those grow as a percentage of revenue, and as LMR comes down as a percentage of revenue, that should obviously have a uplift long-term on growth, all other things being equal.

I just wanna make sure I'm thinking about this the right way. If we think about longer term growth as you go forward in time, it. I appreciate law of large numbers, but when I look at what's going on in your business, it sounds like growth should actually trend up over time.

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

Well, so kinda a couple of things. In the context of 2020, we went through that. I appreciate the question, and I understand where you're coming from. You are right that over time, as software and services and video security, obviously, command center software, that are growing substantially faster and become greater from a contribution standpoint, that would, that should provide a lift, both from a growth rate and an organic growth rate, and we would anticipate that trend over time. We're only guiding for 2020. The China being cut in half is much more pronounced. So China was down $20 million in 2019 against 2018. It's much more pronounced this year. It's not unexpected.

I think it's related to a lot of the things we've been doing and decisions that we've made proactively with China, so that's not unanticipated. But also, I think in the context of the overall guidance, I think it's appropriate to be prudent. By the way, some of this growth, remember, the other trend here is incrementally, things that were sold as CapEx that might roll to the top-line growth number, to take 3 to 4 to 5 to 6, go more toward annuity revenue, multiyear annual recurring. So as we move some product to incremental annual recurring revenue, that would temper down top-line growth as we transition over time, but enhance the longevity and durability and predictability of the cash flow. So there's that, it's that dynamic as well.

But all in, pleased with where we are, record backlog, high growth businesses performing, and LMR as well. Remember, coming off two record years, that's important to understand. And the LMR business being longer sales cycle and a little bit lumpy in nature, you know, 2020 is reflective of that, but that, too, is still growing all in with services.

Paul Silverstein (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Greg, I appreciate the response. To be clear, I wasn't looking for you to change the 2020 guidance. It wasn't longer term.

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah. No, no, I-

Paul Silverstein (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Thinking about it correctly.

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah, no, I know. I appreciate it, and I totally understand where you're coming from.

Paul Silverstein (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Okay, thank you.

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

You bet.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Fahad Najam with Loop Capital Markets.

Fahad Najam (Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you for taking my question. I wanted to see if you can address something that hasn't really come up lately, is the opportunity in the public LTE or private LTE space for you guys. I assume that with your video or increased growing portfolio of video services, there is a synergy with your private LTE offerings. Can you speak to any incremental deployments you've had with your private LTE offerings?

Jack Molloy (Executive VP, Products and Sales)

It's Fahad, it's Jack, and it's a good question. If you think about our LTE offerings, historically, we've got a couple things. We've talked about FirstNet. We think there's muted expectations for FirstNet in North America, but LTE to the enterprise is where we've got significant opportunity. We announced a CBRS portfolio last March at our channel partner expo. We won some of our first deals with the big healthcare system out west.

... So we're encouraged by that. We also have a 900 MHz offering to the utility space that we announced last week at Distributech. And think of this as being something that actually takes advantage of existing P25 footprint, so less sites, better return on investment for utilities, leverages higher power capabilities, and it has P25 and essentially LTE capabilities standing side by side. The last thing is LTE, it will be an enabler for our APX Next device, which is our public safety police, fire EMS device targeted. And that, if you remember, that's got P25 capabilities, but also, it'll have 5G capabilities resident in the device. It's gonna have LMR flow through capabilities there.

So really, it's coming at a number of different things, device opportunities in public safety, some software opportunities in public safety on FirstNet, and then it will have, infrastructure as well as device opportunities in the enterprise space, namely utilities and healthcare, et cetera.

Fahad Najam (Equity Research Analyst)

Appreciate it. And if I could, maybe ask you about the competitiveness of your video products. You know, one of your competitors, they talked about their wins at Fresno and Cincinnati. But I just wanna understand how competitively your products are coming together. You've got WatchGuard and your other video platform. Can you speak to the competitiveness and improved competitiveness of your product offerings relative to your competitors?

Jack Molloy (Executive VP, Products and Sales)

Yeah, I think end-to-end, our video business is obviously, as you mentioned, we've got a fixed, video security analytics business and an Avigilon. It's the only end-to-end game in town, everything from AI-powered, cameras at the edge, to video management, systems, to a part that we don't talk about a lot, and that's access control. Greg talked a little bit earlier about education, and I think access control is every bit as important, to our story, as we secure, campuses and the like. When we think about our mobile—our video, business in the public safety, and I talked about earlier, again, we're the only one. We've got the only one who's got an end-to-end story there. We've got not only on body, we're the leading in-car video provider, but we've also got LPR capabilities.

But more importantly, our LEARN database is the most robust database in play, and content matters, as you well know. We've got over 20 billion plates in the system. So we think we're pulling the story together. We've actually consolidated our sales teams in public safety directed at video. 'Cause through the acquisitions, we had different people pointed in different places. We've aggregated those teams, have them under a central leader now, and we're focused on getting after the public safety space. But I think, from the innovation standpoint, from our portfolio, we've got everything we need to execute.

Fahad Najam (Equity Research Analyst)

Appreciate the insights. Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

Once again, if you do have a question, you may press star, then one on your touchtone phone at this time. The next question comes from Sami Badri with Cisco. Please go ahead.

Sami Badri (VP and Head of Investor Relations)

Hi, thank you for the question. On your video win in the quarter, that was for $5 million, and I appreciate some of the comments you gave regarding your federal sales team that has been ramping up. But was this in any way related to the NDAA policy, or, or did the NDAA policy win to your advantage to win this actual contract, or was this completely unrelated to the NDAA policy that actually boxed out some of the Chinese vendors?

Jack Molloy (Executive VP, Products and Sales)

Sami, the NDAA, I think we've dimensionalized it as being a tailwind to our business. It's created a favorable environment for Avigilon. But I would tell you, I think it's more, more of a result of having the right portfolio, the right focus and the right relationships, and the ability to navigate the federal government sales cycle. I'd probably attribute it more of success to Mark McNulty and Jim Mears and their teams in getting after that business. I think that's it.

Greg Brown (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah, and the only other thing I'd add on the video, again, is you think about the video assets we've acquired and aggregated. In 2019, they're roughly all in, about $700 million in revenue. That includes fixed video, in-car video, body-worn video, license plate recognition video. We feel very good about the end-to-end system orientation, strong AI edge analytics, and then we take those and integrate them into our incumbency around land mobile radio, for a pretty powerful ecosystem around, mission-critical communications and analytics. So that's the path we're on.

Sami Badri (VP and Head of Investor Relations)

Got it. Thank you. And then one follow-up is, if you look at the, all your command center contracts that you've been signing and winning over every quarter, has the average size of these contracts from a dollar perspective, started getting larger, or is it very in line on a quarterly basis, or was it very in line in Q4 2019 versus the prior three quarters?

Kelly Mark (Executive VP, Software and Services)

Sammy, it's Kelly. We are seeing the contracts start to get a bit larger as we see the bundles and the suites, certainly referencing a couple large ones as we did in the earnings materials with Irvine. So as we see the customers step in, rather than just buy a point product like CAD or Records, they're now bundling more and more together, so that will lead to a bit more of an influx in regards to the size of those, as those happen.

Sami Badri (VP and Head of Investor Relations)

Got it. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I will turn the floor back over to Mr. Tim Yocum, Vice President of Investor Relations, for any additional or closing remarks.

Tim Yocum (Head of Investor Relations)

Yeah, nothing else to add. Appreciate everyone joining today, and we'll, we'll talk to many of you soon.

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. A replay of this call will be available over the Internet in approximately three hours. The website address is www.motorolasolutions.com/investor. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines at this time. Take care.