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    Match Group Inc (MTCH)

    Q4 2023 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jan 10, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$38.38Last close (Jan 31, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$38.76Open (Feb 1, 2024)
    Price Change
    $0.38(+0.99%)
    • Tinder is experiencing significant payer declines, with payers not expected to turn positive until Q3 2024 and only modest payer growth anticipated by Q4, indicating challenges in user growth and retention at Match Group's largest brand.
    • The company is investing $20–$30 million in AI initiatives and significant resources into Tinder's product innovation and marketing, which may impact margins and carry execution risk if these investments do not yield expected returns.
    • The consolidation of technology platforms across brands is a complex and risky multiyear process, with full benefits not expected until 2026, introducing potential execution risks and delays in realizing cost savings.
    1. Tinder User Growth and EBITDA Guidance
      Q: Why was Tinder user growth negative despite marketing spend, and what's behind the lower Q1 EBITDA guidance?
      A: In 2023, despite increased marketing efforts, Tinder saw negative user growth due to the time it takes for a new brand narrative to translate into user growth. In the first half of 2023, there was good progress, but trends reverted in the second half, with user counts down mid-single digits year-over-year. The lower Q1 EBITDA guidance, about $25 million below the Street expectations, is mainly due to heavy marketing spend planned for Q1 to drive users back to the app post-refresh and some user softness in Q4 leading to revenue softness.

    2. Tinder Net Adds and Payer Growth Outlook
      Q: What is your confidence level in Tinder net adds turning positive in Q3 and payer growth in Q4?
      A: Management is highly confident that Tinder will see sequential improvement in net adds by Q3 and modest year-over-year payer growth by Q4. This confidence comes from a combination of product and marketing initiatives put in place during '23 and into '24, which are expected to drive the necessary growth.

    3. App Store Fees and DMA Impact
      Q: How do recent App Store fee changes under the DMA affect your financial outlook?
      A: The company anticipates a $20 million annualized benefit from Apple's policy changes in the EU due to the DMA, with about $15 million likely accruing in 2024. This positively impacts margin targets and may allow exceeding them as the year progresses. However, there's still uncertainty, and decisions on opting into these changes are pending.

    4. AI Investment and Expected Impact
      Q: How will AI contribute to your expectations for 2024, and will it drive payers or RPP?
      A: The company is investing $20 million to $30 million in AI innovation in 2024 , aiming to enhance user experiences across the portfolio. While there's high expectation for these AI-driven products and features, no notable revenue from AI efforts is included in the 2024 outlook yet. The expectation is that AI will benefit RPP by providing better experiences that users will value.

    5. Cost Savings from Platform Consolidation
      Q: What cost savings or margin impact do you expect from consolidating brands onto a single tech platform?
      A: By reducing redundancies and centralizing teams in the Emerging and Evergreen businesses, the company anticipates significant cost savings. The consolidation is a multi-year process, with real benefits accruing fully by 2026, potentially improving margins by 10 percentage points in the E&E business , enabling reinvestment into growth businesses like Tinder and Hinge.

    6. Hinge Seasonality and Performance
      Q: What caused Hinge's slowdown in December, and how did it recover?
      A: Hinge experienced typical seasonality, with users pulling back during the holiday season in November and December. This was the first time Hinge showed such seasonality, now that it's at a reasonable scale in core markets. The brand saw a strong rebound starting January, with strength across geographies and demographics, indicating positive performance expected for 2024.

    7. Tinder Product Roadmap for Payer Growth
      Q: What in the Tinder product roadmap could drive payer turnaround in the second half?
      A: The company plans to enhance the visibility and value of paid packages, dynamically present the right offers to users, and experiment with unbundling premium features. These initiatives, along with marketing efforts, are expected to turn Tinder payers positive on a sequential basis by Q3.

    8. New Leadership at Tinder
      Q: With new leadership, what changes should we expect in Tinder's strategy?
      A: Faye is now CEO of Tinder, bringing passion and deep knowledge of the business. She is pushing forward with modernizing the product, boosting development speed, and focusing on enhancing women's experiences and ecosystem health. Continued momentum and clarity on goals are emphasized.

    9. À la Carte Offerings at Tinder
      Q: Can you provide details on new à la carte products planned for Tinder?
      A: While specifics are withheld for competitive reasons, the company is exploring new à la carte features beyond Super Like and Boost. A new offering is expected in the second half of the year, aimed at bringing more value to users and potentially driving monetization.

    10. Alternative Pricing Strategies for Tinder
      Q: Would you consider alternative pricing to regain payers, given the impact of pricing optimizations?
      A: The focus remains on increasing revenue rather than adjusting pricing solely to move key metrics. Management believes they have enough in the roadmap to achieve payer growth by prioritizing revenue and expect a better balance between payer growth and RPP over the year.