Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
- Improving User Trends and Confidence in Revenue Growth: Match Group is experiencing solid user trends during the peak dating season at both Tinder and Hinge, which are leading indicators of future MAU and revenue trends. This gives the company confidence in its 2025 revenue trajectory, expecting steadily improving year-over-year trends as the year progresses.
- Appointment of New CEO with Strong Experience and Personal Investment in the Company: The appointment of Spencer Rascoff as CEO brings significant experience in scaling digital marketplaces, as he previously led Zillow Group. Demonstrating his confidence in the company's future, he announced plans to personally purchase $2 million worth of Match Group stock, stating he believes it's a good investment.
- Strategic Investments in AI and Trust and Safety to Drive Growth: Match Group is implementing trust and safety initiatives, such as biometrics and face photo requirements, to foster a cleaner ecosystem. Additionally, the company plans to leverage AI to enhance user experiences and matching algorithms across its brands. These efforts are expected to improve user satisfaction, retention, and drive user growth and revenue.
- Tinder's monthly active users (MAU) continue to decline year-over-year, with global MAU down approximately 8% in January 2025. The company does not assume MAU growth at Tinder in their outlook, indicating ongoing challenges in user growth.
- Trust and safety initiatives at Tinder are negatively impacting user growth and revenue in the short term, as features like biometrics in Canada and face photo requirements may deter some users. These initiatives could potentially hinder financial performance in 2025. ,
- The company lowered the high end of their margin expansion guidance for 2025 due to worsening foreign exchange headwinds, primarily at Tinder. This may affect profitability targets and reflects potential vulnerabilities in their financial outlook.
Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
---|---|---|
Total Revenue | -0.7% | Total Revenue declined slightly from USD 866.2M in Q4 2023 to USD 860.18M in Q4 2024. This modest drop reflects a mixed performance where robust gains in Hinge revenue were partly offset by a decline in MG Asia revenue, along with potential external market challenges and minor FX effects. |
Operating Income | +59% | Operating Income surged from USD 260.25M in Q4 2023 to USD 412.98M in Q4 2024. This significant improvement is likely driven by enhanced cost management and operational leverage, building on previous efforts to improve margins despite a slight decline in overall revenue. |
Net Income | -31% | Net Income fell from USD 229.66M in Q4 2023 to USD 158.30M in Q4 2024. Despite the uptick in operating income, the decline is attributed to substantially higher non-operating expenses, particularly the sharp increase in interest expense, which eroded profitability. |
Basic EPS | -25% | Basic EPS dropped from 0.84 in Q4 2023 to 0.63 in Q4 2024. This decrease mirrors the fall in net income and highlights that the previous period’s stronger earnings, combined with a modest reduction in shares outstanding, were insufficient to sustain EPS levels amid rising costs. |
Interest Expense | +87% | Interest Expense nearly doubled, rising from USD 40.41M in Q4 2023 to USD 75.67M in Q4 2024. This steep increase is likely due to higher borrowing costs or changes in the company's debt profile, adversely impacting net income despite improved operating performance. |
Hinge Revenue | +27% | Hinge Revenue increased from USD 116.11M in Q4 2023 to USD 147.65M in Q4 2024. This strong growth is driven by solid user growth, effective pricing strategies, and successful market expansion initiatives, which continue the positive momentum observed in prior periods. |
MG Asia Revenue | -8.7% | MG Asia Revenue declined from USD 73.52M in Q4 2023 to USD 67.08M in Q4 2024. The drop is primarily due to unfavorable FX impacts and a reduction in payers, continuing the trend of segment weakness seen in the previous period. |
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Total revenue | Q4 2024 | $865M to $875M | no current guidance | no current guidance |
Tinder direct revenue | Q4 2024 | $480M to $485M | no current guidance | no current guidance |
Tinder payers | Q4 2024 | Decline mid-single digits y/y | no current guidance | no current guidance |
Other brands direct revenue | Q4 2024 | $370M to $375M | no current guidance | no current guidance |
Hinge direct revenue | Q4 2024 | $145M (~25% y/y growth) | no current guidance | no current guidance |
AOI | Q4 2024 | $335M to $340M (~-6% to -7% y/y) | no current guidance | no current guidance |
AOI margin | Q4 2024 | 39% at midpoint | no current guidance | no current guidance |
Marketing spend | Q4 2024 | Lower y/y at Tinder, higher y/y at Hinge | no current guidance | no current guidance |
Total revenue | Q1 2025 | no prior guidance | Impacted by y/y declines in Tinder direct revenue growth | no prior guidance |
Tinder direct revenue y/y | Q1 2025 | no prior guidance | Negative y/y | no prior guidance |
Total revenue growth | FY 2024 | ~4% y/y (5% FX neutral) | no current guidance | no current guidance |
Tinder direct revenue growth | FY 2024 | 1–2% y/y (3% FX neutral) | no current guidance | no current guidance |
AOI margin | FY 2024 | At least 36% | no current guidance | no current guidance |
Free cash flow | FY 2024 | ~$1B | no current guidance | no current guidance |
Margin expansion | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | ≥50 basis points | no prior guidance |
Revenue growth | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | “Gradually improving” y/y total revenue growth | no prior guidance |
AOI margin expansion | FY 2027 | no prior guidance | +3 points by FY 2027 | no prior guidance |
Metric | Period | Guidance | Actual | Performance |
---|---|---|---|---|
Total Revenue | Q4 2024 | $865 million to $875 million | $860.176 million | Missed |
Tinder Direct Revenue | Q4 2024 | $480 million to $485 million | $512.89 million | Beat |
Other Brands Revenue | Q4 2024 | $370 million to $375 million | $378.22 million (147.65+ 67.08+ 163.49) | Beat |
Hinge Direct Revenue | Q4 2024 | ~$145 million | $147.65 million | Beat |
-
Revenue Guidance and Margin Outlook
Q: Why does Q1 guide imply a slowdown despite solid dating season start?
A: Steven Bailey explained that while user trends have been solid at Tinder and Hinge during peak season, the immediate revenue impact is modest due to timing. Tinder's year-over-year direct revenue growth reflects stabilizing but still negative MAU trends and planned trust and safety initiatives. Additionally, foreign exchange headwinds and the fact that last year was a leap year reduce year-over-year revenue growth by about 1 percentage point in the quarter. They remain confident in the 2025 revenue trajectory, expecting improving year-over-year trends as the year progresses. -
Margin Outlook and Investments
Q: How does the margin outlook for 2025 align with investments?
A: Steven Bailey stated they are committed to delivering at least 50 basis points of margin expansion in 2025. This is at the lower end of the range provided at Investor Day due to worsening FX headwinds, primarily at Tinder. They aim to ensure they can make planned investments in product innovation at Tinder to achieve their three-year revenue growth objectives. They remain confident in achieving their three-year margin target of 39%. -
Tinder MAU Trends and Return to Growth
Q: Can Tinder MAUs return to year-over-year growth in 2025?
A: Gary Swidler noted that Tinder's MAU trends have improved over the last few months as the effect of prior iOS issues has begun to dissipate. Global Tinder MAUs were down about 10% year-over-year in October, improving to about 8% down in January. While progress is positive, returning to growth is not currently included in their outlook. They are focused on rolling out product initiatives to drive further improvement. -
Impact of Trust and Safety Initiatives
Q: How will trust and safety changes affect user growth in 2025?
A: Gary Swidler acknowledged that trust and safety initiatives at Tinder can impact both users and revenue. They are iterating these features to maximize effectiveness in removing bad actors while minimizing effects on good users and revenue. They monitor KPIs such as reductions in reports of bad actors. The outlook includes effects of biometrics in Canada and face photo requirements in several markets. Spencer Rascoff added that cleaning up the ecosystem is mission-critical, driving real business outcomes like improved net promoter score, positive word of mouth, better retention, and lower customer acquisition costs. -
Leadership Change and Strategic Direction
Q: Why is now the right time for a leadership change, and how will strategy evolve?
A: Spencer Rascoff stated that the transition will be smooth as he was already on the Board and familiar with the team and strategy. He stands behind the strategy and financial targets from Investor Day and is focused on executing the plans with urgency and accountability. -
Tinder Monetization and A la Carte Features
Q: Update on Tinder's a la carte features and expected revenue contribution?
A: Steven Bailey reported that they rolled out "First Impressions" in December, allowing users to send contextual messages on specific profile elements. User adoption has been solid, and users who send a first impression are more likely to get a match. They have reduced cannibalization impact, and it is adding incremental revenue. The expected contribution from revised a la carte features at Tinder on 2025 revenue is relatively small. -
Monetization Strategy
Q: Should there be more focus on monetizing non-paying users?
A: Spencer Rascoff emphasized that they focus on maximizing total revenue rather than the number of paying users. Steven Bailey added that they are constantly testing and optimizing for revenue, not specifically RPP or payers. There's significant opportunity to increase focus on monetization optimization at Hinge while continuing to drive user growth. -
Hinge's Matching Algorithms and Cross-brand Application
Q: Will Hinge's new matching algorithms be replicated across brands?
A: Steven Bailey confirmed that they can leverage Hinge's advancements across brands. The "Pops Plus" initiative allows them to use shared learnings effectively. They have seen examples like AI Photo Finder being deployed across brands. Spencer Rascoff added that leveraging AI across brands is a key focus, citing prior success with cross-brand innovation. -
Emerging Brands Driving Growth
Q: Update on emerging brands contributing to growth?
A: Gary Swidler stated they expect moderating declines at evergreen brands and continued strong growth at emerging brands over the course of 2025. They have been targeting demographic groups, with brands like Chispa and BLK continuing to be strong growers. The recent acquisition of Salaams, focused on the Muslim community, has seen revenues expand by about 50% since acquisition. They plan to continue this strategy to drive growth.