Matador Resources Company - Q3 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the third quarter 2023 Matador Resources Company earnings conference call. My name is Latif, and I'll be serving as the operator for today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. We will facilitate a question-and-answer session at the end of the company's remarks. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes, and the replay will be available on the company's website for one year, as discussed in the company's earnings press release issued yesterday. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Mac Schmitz, Vice President, Investor Relations for Matador. Mr. Schmitz, you may proceed. Mr. Schmitz, your line is open, sir.

Mac Schmitz (VP of Investor Relations)

Thank you, Latif, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for Matador's third quarter 2023 earnings conference call. Some of the presenters today will reference certain non-GAAP financial measures regularly used by Matador Resources in measuring the company's financial performance. Reconciliations of such non-GAAP financial measures with the comparable financial measures calculated in accordance with GAAP are contained at the end of the company's earnings press release. As a reminder, certain statements included in this morning's presentation may be forward-looking and reflect the company's current expectations or forecasts of future events based on the information that is now available. Actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements.

Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's earnings release and its most recent annual report on Form 10-K and any subsequent quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. In addition to our earnings press release, I would like to remind everyone on the call that you can find a slide presentation in connection with the third quarter 2023 earnings release under the Investor Relations tab on our corporate website. And with that, I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Joe Foran, our Founder, Chairman, and CEO. Joe?

Joe Foran (Founder, Chairman and CEO)

Thank you, Mac, and thank you all for listening in. It's a pleasure to be here today and a pleasure to give you this report. In very simplest terms, we said at the beginning of the year that we began the year at 100,000 BOE equivalent, and we're gonna finish the year at 140,000. I was wrong. It's gonna be 145,000. And we're pleased to report, in addition to production being up, our debt is down, costs are down, and we think our opportunities are also up, that the plans that we put into place are proceeding as expected or better than expected. And we're excited to report this to you and look for your questions.

But we feel we've ended the year 2023 with more inventory, more options, and the outlook for 2024 is even better. As strong as this year is, I, you know, repeat that 2024 is better. I would point to you, I had 2 slides in the materials, which shows... First one shows our performance over the last 5 years against our peers, as selected, and, we've performed, we feel like we've outperformed them. And the second one is more interesting, is our performance since the IPO. The team has made great strides. I give them the credit. People are really working well together. They've come up with good ideas, and Matador has continued to grow.

When we went public, we were about $300 million, and today, the market cap is somewhere around $7.5 billion. But should get better as the year goes along. We've given projections, but they, you know, are confident they will all be realized. I think on slide B, something that struck me as we prepared this was that three times we have announced what were very meaningful deals to us. The first one was the HEYCO deal, and immediately announcing it, we thought anticipating it'd go up, but things went down, which was a big surprise to us. And then when we bought the BLM leases, again, we thought the market would easily recognize the potential of these wells.

We have now drilled close to 90 wells on these leases, and but instead of going up, things plunged. And in this deal, besides 98 wells happening and the production from them, it enabled us to go from 98% of our wells being one-mile laterals, to 98% of our wells being two miles or more, and you see the dramatic effect of that. Right after that, as things started to stabilize, we ran into COVID, and things plunged again. But as we turned on the Stateline wells, and these wells were paying out in less than a year, at some even paid out at $20 a barrel, you can see where that's taken us to much higher levels. Now, and again, but the third time was the charm.

We had announced the Advance deal, and instead of going up, it went down again. So, but since then, things have been going good for us. As you can see, as we've increased the production, as I mentioned, first of the year, 100,000, end of the year, pretty simple math, 145,000. We're headed in the right direction. Now, just again, a brief history of our Delaware position. We started it when we went public in 2012. At that time, we had 6 wells. This is slide C. Five years later, in 2017, we had 212 wells, and then now in 2023, we've got 751 wells. And our market cap has increased, and all the other important categories have, too, including the dividend. And it's with pleasure. We like dividends here.

I would like to emphasize that. We're all large shareholders, and over 95% of our employees are participating in the employees purchase plan of our stock. So I appreciate the vote of confidence from the staff. We're gonna try to deliver, but again, pleased that we've had four raises of the dividend, and now we're at $0.80. The other progress as you get into it. So we've got production up, our costs are down, we think our inventory selection is better than ever, and debt is down $200 million. So we're at $500 million. We have almost $1 billion of in availability under our RBL with our bank group.

So we think we're ready for the opportunities that will come along this year, and want to answer or address any concerns that y'all might have. But again, I'm just stating simply that I think you can count on us to perform even better in 2024 than in 2023. And we're making plans accordingly, because you have a lot of volatility and uncertainty that we're trying to be ready for everything, not only on the operation side, but in the world and in Congress and all the other things that's happening. In whichever way it goes, we're confident we have a good plan to make progress. So with that, I'd open up the floor for questions.

Mac Schmitz (VP of Investor Relations)

Latif, we'll jump into Q&A. Thanks.

Operator (participant)

As a reminder, thank you. To ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. To remove yourself from the queue, press star one one again. Ladies and gentlemen, due to time constraints, we ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Again, we ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up until we've had a chance, everyone has had a chance to ask a question, after which we welcome additional questions from you. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Thank you for standing by. Our first question comes from the line of Scott Hanold of RBC Capital Markets.

Scott Hanold (Managing Director)

Yeah, thanks. Good morning. Congrats on hitting some record volumes this quarter. You know, Joe, you had highlighted the importance of, you know, some of these acquisitions you've made over time and the value they, you know, continue to add to Matador. You know, with respect to, I guess, the most recent one in Advance, I mean, you all have been, you know, bringing in some of those, you know, first batch of wells, I think, starting sometime, you know, late August, early September. Could you give any kind of context on, you know, where you're at with that and some of the initial performance, you know, just in terms of your expectation and any kind of, you know, tangible data you can provide?

Joe Foran (Founder, Chairman and CEO)

You know, good question, Scott. The thing that I'd really point you to is, at the first of the year, we were at 100,000, and we said end of the year, we were gonna go to 140,000. And so here we are at 145,000. Obviously, the projections that Tom and the rest of our group had have been on the money, and a little bit better, maybe. And, you know, we're early, early times yet, but it looks, it looks promising to come in as expected or maybe a little bit better than expected. But we've been active in that area prior to the acquisition, so we knew, you know, that it was good rock area, just like what we also had on adjoining leases and was-...

Just about as perfect a fit on an acquisition as we've had. So no surprises, no big surprises. It's pretty much as projected, which is nice, has been real nice and has fit in with our midstream. So, you know, that was the biggest acquisition we've ever done. There's always a little bit of wariness when you go into something of that magnitude, but it appears to be working out.

Scott Hanold (Managing Director)

Okay. And I would assume that at some point, as you get more of those wells online, we'll kind of see the typical kind of update on well performance. Is that a reasonable assumption?

Joe Foran (Founder, Chairman and CEO)

Yeah, that's, I, I think, very reasonable. We just need, we just need a little more time, and then we can all feel-

Scott Hanold (Managing Director)

Okay.

Joe Foran (Founder, Chairman and CEO)

You know, that well-established decline curves and well-established production history, and but it's looking really good. You know, everybody here is glad we did it. We do think it was another important milestone for Matador. So, you know, we've done transactions, large and small, and have enjoyed working with Ameredev, who was operating and their private equity sponsors. I think, you know, it's a win-win-win type of deal.

Scott Hanold (Managing Director)

Okay. Well, I appreciate that. And as a follow-up question, you know, I know you gave some context last quarter on what you all think about 2024 and a 150+ per day rate of production. And you obviously indicated you're now, you know, going to be adding that eighth rig in the first part of the year next year. And could you, you know, talk about what that means for that production number you provided? And any color on midstream CapEx, if you have it, and really specifically, you know, where are we at with potentially finding a partner for Pronto, and whether you think you need to.

Joe Foran (Founder, Chairman and CEO)

That's a really good question. I'm gonna take that first, that first, and then we can come back to the other one. One is that if we add a new plant, that's about $200 million. Well, that's really a small, very small in comparison to the $1.6 billion that we paid for Advance. So, we have close to $1 billion available on our RBL. Cash flow is up, production's increasing. So clearly, you know, if we had a partner, it's because of some enhancement that they bring to the deal. But if it isn't win-win, we're, we're gonna just go ahead and do it ourselves. It's a good opportunity for somebody, but what we're bringing to the table is the production and the staff, the experienced field staff to handle it.

It's a proven deal. We've operated San Mateo in good fashion with a growing EBITDA group. Pronto has come on strong the same way, and it's close to capacity. We have some short-term capacity that we can switch to, you know, where we're assured, you know, some or firm capacity if that's what we wanna do. So there's optionality there. We think this plant, we're moving along with it as if we're. It's just gonna be us. We will, you know, look to if somebody would like to get involved, we'll listen, but we think the economics are such, we're very, very happy to keep it ourselves. So, as Gregg and I were talking about it, unless it's win-win, we're just not very interested. Gregg, you want to add anything to that?

Gregg Krug (EVP of Marketing and Midstream Strategy)

No, I think you said it well. This is Gregg Krug, EVP of Marketing and Midstream Strategy. Scott, that, I think that's it. I think Joe hit it on the head when it comes to what we're looking for. We're looking for a win-win situation here with a possible partner, if that's the direction we wanna go. But that's the only way that that's gonna work for us. And but as again, as Joe said, that's that is something we can do this on our own, and we feel comfortable being able to do so. And we definitely like the growth potential out there with the amount of gas and the drilling that we're doing, and also the third party.

I think there's a lot of opportunity out there for third-party, and we definitely are, we feel in a really good position to be able to take on that third-party gas. With the connector, as you mentioned earlier, you know, we're looking at being able to do that, and also with the plant expansion as well. So we like our opportunities out there.

Joe Foran (Founder, Chairman and CEO)

And Ryan, I'm glad you mentioned the connectors, because that'll connect up the Pronto plant swinging around and coming through San Mateo, and they saying, we've got 550 miles of pipeline out there, and this will just give us that much more optionality. So Scott, I hope we've answered your question here, in particular, that the economics on a $200 and having full control are inviting, and the economics appear to be getting better, particularly as we're adding an eighth rig and going from there. So if you'll repeat your first question, I'll try to answer it quickly.

Scott Hanold (Managing Director)

Yeah, yeah. No, no, I appreciate that. And it was with that eighth rig, and, you know, where does that, you know, relative to your 150+ a day prior comment on 2024, how does that eighth rig kind of fit into that?

Joe Foran (Founder, Chairman and CEO)

Well, I think, I turn it to Glenn. My view is the eighth rig is being reflected in the 150,000 number, and that's part of the reason why we're confident that we'll increase it from present to add to our numbers, and more in year 2025. Glenn?

Glenn Stetson (EVP of Production)

Yeah. Hey, Scott, this is Glenn Stetson, an EVP of Production. Yeah, Joe, Joe hit it just right. We, you know, just to rewind a little bit too, you know, we did—when we picked up the Advance properties, we did operate a rig there for about a month and a half or two months before we dropped it to the seventh rig. And so really, just what's new in this, you know, in this release is timing on that eighth rig. And so to your point, we did soft guide for 2024 at the 150,000. That was inclusive of an eighth rig. But, you know, the timing piece was what was, you know, abstract.

So anyway, we are going to pick up that eighth rig in Q1 and look forward to, you know, growing production to that 150+.

Scott Hanold (Managing Director)

Okay. That's clear. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Gabe Daoud of TD Cowen.

Gabe Daoud (Managing Director)

Thank you. Morning, Joe. Morning, everybody. Maybe we could go back to the midstream angle and maybe just following up on Scott's question. And Joe, you kind of alluded to, alluded to this in the response, but just curious if the Marlan plant is at full capacity, how does this impact the way the current 21 wells are being flowed back and the next batch of Advance wells and how those will be flowed back? I guess, you know, that you could divert the gas and lay down some lines to San Mateo, but what would the timing of that be like? And how full is the San Mateo plant?

Joe Foran (Founder, Chairman and CEO)

Well, that's a whole bunch of questions, all in one sentence. What I'd simply tell you on that score is that, it's not at full firm delivery capacity. What we are, it has room for a minimum production volume. Customers right now we're taking some gas, some part of that is gas on an interruptible basis, but we can extend it, and that's, again, another reason that we see a market out there for more, you know, minimum production volume deals, so that people are confident of their flow assurance. We think that can be attractive. So, we're leaving ourselves a flexibility to take up that optional space or to bring in third parties on a firm basis.

In the meantime, leaving us the option by keeping it on an interruptible basis. Gregg, did I say that right?

Gregg Krug (EVP of Marketing and Midstream Strategy)

Yeah. Yeah, yeah, it looks like... I mean, we have right now approximately 60 million going into that plant right now, but some of that, as Joe said, was—is on an interruptible basis. It's short-term contracts. So we do have room for additional capacity on a firm basis that we could push out the interruptible gas, or once those terms are up, we can push that out. And then we also have the connector, which we're anticipating having done by the first quarter of next year. So which will give us additional capacity and the flexibility as far as bringing it over into the San Mateo system.

Gabe Daoud (Managing Director)

Okay. Okay, thanks, guys. That's, that's helpful. And then my follow-up question would be on 2024 CapEx, and maybe instead of asking about how the eighth rig impacts volume, just curious how the eighth rig and, you know, some of the moving pieces on midstream, how does that translate to a budget for 2024 relative to 2023?

Brian Willey (EVP)

Hey, Gabe, this is Brian Willey, Chief Financial Officer. Thanks for the question. We appreciate that. I think it's something that we are, you know, continuing to evaluate and look at as we look into the future into 2024. And,

... You know, Joe mentioned earlier that the great production growth that we're set up for next year, being at the 145,000 BOE per day in the fourth quarter, and we also have 47 net wells in progress at the end of the year, which sets us up nicely to hit that 150,000 BOE or better next year. So if you think about the CapEx, it's pretty early. I mean, I think normally we go into those details in the first quarter. I'd expect we'll do that in our February call. I mean, obviously, there, we're in a volatile commodity environment and the world market as well, with the tensions in the Middle East and otherwise.

So, you know, we don't want to get ahead of ourselves and our plan, and so there's still a lot of planning left to be done and golf to be played before we're able to talk about that in more detail. So I'd expect more detail on that early next year.

Gabe Daoud (Managing Director)

Okay, understood. Thanks, Brian. Thanks, everyone.

Joe Foran (Founder, Chairman and CEO)

I would add just we've got a plan A, B, and C-

Glenn Stetson (EVP of Production)

Yes

Joe Foran (Founder, Chairman and CEO)

working for whatever scenario, whether Congress is unable to come together, if there's a the war expands in the Middle East, you know, if peace, peace comes or whatever, we're trying to build in all the different options. And so we're prepared to go and have the flexibility to move within 30 days in a different direction if circumstances necessitate it.

Glenn Stetson (EVP of Production)

Yeah, Joe, you're exactly right. I think the optionality piece, the midstream that we've talked about for many years and having that be such an advantage for us, I think as we look at the future, I think Joe, Joe said it very well, having option A, B, C, and just looking at the different opportunities ahead and having that midstream piece that can help support the upstream side is, is critical as we look towards the future.

Joe Foran (Founder, Chairman and CEO)

Yeah, I'd say our key word around here is being nimble, being prepared to move as these things come to rest in one direction or another.

Gabe Daoud (Managing Director)

Thanks, Joe. Thank you.

Joe Foran (Founder, Chairman and CEO)

Thanks, Gabe.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from the line of Zach Parham of JP Morgan.

Zach Parham (Executive Director)

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. First, could you just give us some updated thoughts on well productivity in general? You know, just looking at the state data, well productivity seems down a bit versus 2022 on average. And I know that data has its issues and the public data is a bit delayed, but just curious if, if that's what you're seeing internally or if, if productivity is kind of in line with your internal expectations.

Tom Elsener (EVP of Reservoir Engineering)

Hey, Zach, this is Tom Elsner, EVP for Reservoir. You know, we're proud of our well results. I think, you know, as we've talked for quite some time, that the Northern Delaware Basin has been, you know, a great part of the basin for us. You know, the very high oil cuts and the low water cuts, you know, are things that we're really proud of. You know, many of the wells in the Northern Delaware Basin, they don't have as much gas, and so they, you know, some of them will come online with ESPs or other types of artificial lift. But I think, you know, over the years, I think we've done a really nice job of anticipating the way these wells would behave.

I think we've made, you know, great strides in our lateral lengths and our targetings. You know, certainly MAXCOM and all of our operations team has had a great role to play in that. I think our reservoir engineering departments have done a really nice job of anticipating the, you know, how these wells would perform, and so I think we've done a really nice job in that department.

Joe Foran (Founder, Chairman and CEO)

I'll just add, second to that, that I do think our reservoir group, led by Tanner, has done a real good job. And when we've had the outside consultant, Netherland, Sewell, they've been right on the money, and our bank engineers, the same thing. If it hadn't been, we've been 10% ahead. It's everybody's been right on all three groups been right on the money, so we feel we have good confidence, and, you know, we're figuring out ways to improve that profile on the well. Feel like we're drilling better wells today than we were, even back then, and feel like we're completing them better, and that the MAXCOM room has kept us more in zone.

I know that may be some people hadn't seen, but our visitors that come in seem to really like the room and can see how staying in zone, longer, 10% more on a 1-million-barrel well, can mean 100,000 barrels. So we, we think there's... We're glad to see the improvements, and, we're looking for more ways to, to do each well better, you know, by increments.

Zach Parham (Executive Director)

Got it. Thank you, guys. Then just one follow-up. On the cash flow statement for the quarter, there was $65 million in acquisitions. You know, could you give us a little color on maybe what was acquired and, you know, quantify the production impact from those acquisitions?

Joe Foran (Founder, Chairman and CEO)

You know, you're getting probably into something that is difficult to break down. Some were small, some were larger. It's just a whole mix of items in that kind of a stew pot where things go in. But you want to take a hand at it, Brian?

Brian Willey (EVP)

Sure, Joe, this is Brian. I'd say Joe said it very well. I think it's a mix of, you know, dozens of deals, and, you know, as we look at it, it's non-op included. It's got operated wells and increasing our interest in those. It's new acreage. It's just a broad mix. And so our land group just does a tremendous job. We've talked about this for many years, this brick by brick approach of building the company, and this kind of organic growth. And so, you know, shout out to Van and to John Talbert and Bryan Erman, and the rest of the team that does just such a good job in doing these deals and brick by brick, continuing to build our position in the Delaware Basin.

I think Joe reviewed the slide earlier that talked about the number of wells and how we've increased on that front. It also shows the acreage and how back in 2012, we had right around 6,000 acres, and now we're over 150,000 net acres. And, you know, it's just great to be able to increase and see that growth over the years. And so great, great job to the land team.

Zach Parham (Executive Director)

Got it. Thanks, guys.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Neil Dingmann of Truist.

Neal Dingmann (Managing Director)

Morning, Joe and team. Congrats on another nice quarter. Joe, my first question, maybe just a broad question on your comments a few minutes ago. I'm just wondering, would your planned activity and decision to add an eighth rig and boost production next year change if prices fell for various reasons? Or, you know, maybe if I could ask another way, I mean, how do you all view the very limited maintenance capital and production plans by many other E&Ps? And I love what you all are doing to create value. I'm just curious to know how you all are thinking about it.

Joe Foran (Founder, Chairman and CEO)

Well, you know, you've met the guys here, Neil, and they're all pretty strong-minded people, so I hesitate to say that my opinion reflects everybody else's. It's, there's some pretty active discussion around what's the best way to go. But what I'd say is, you know, that the eighth rig, I think, is pretty firm. You know, we think that, you know, if commodity prices change, you know, it changes $1 or $2, it's not even gonna be material. And, you know, how much do they have to change for you to even consider? Because this, this rig's coming on to drill some specific wells that are important to our evaluating our overall acreage.

So I don't think we're, you know, at this point, seriously, thinking, well, we're gonna take this rig on for a little bit, and then we may let it go. We're laddered in on our rig, so we have that optionality, but the economics of adding the 8th rig looks pretty darn good, and I can't see us doing it, unless some, you know, black swan event. And, I'd also like to thank Patterson, has been a great partner in these endeavors, with us, and, you know, we've worked together, and they've done so well in improving the cost structure that, you know, Chris was-- and Patterson had worked out this year. I see the same thing happening if prices were to fall dramatically.

Patterson has been really good, you know, to help us be more efficient on our drilling and in the splash. Chris, do you want to say that?

Chris Calvert (EVP and COO)

Yeah. Yeah. Hi, Neil. This is Chris Calvert-

Neal Dingmann (Managing Director)

Okay.

Chris Calvert (EVP and COO)

The VP, Co-Chief Operating Officer. You know, I think Joe said it well. Obviously, the value that we place on the relationship with Patterson is something that is extremely important to us. You know, the idea of the eighth rig, we were talking about the right time to add that in. I think the foundation under that decision or a lot of that foundation is execution and how can this rig come help us execute our plan, not only for 2024, but also to continue to drill wells in a faster way, in a more cost-efficient manner. And so you look at the relationship with Patterson that goes back decades.

It is something that has been built of an understanding of we know what our expectations are, Patterson knows, and it comes with a high-tech super-spec rig. It comes with a very competent, exceptional crew. It comes with these things that really allow us to continue to execute in a way of reducing drilling days, you know, reducing well costs and things like that. And so the optionality obviously is very important to us, but it's also the understanding that we know what we're going to expect, and that's a high-tech super-spec rig. It's gonna be able to drill wells like U-turns, longer laterals, things like that, that allow us to continue to improve on the operational front.

Joe Foran (Founder, Chairman and CEO)

One other I'd add to Chris is that with Patterson, we have a long history going back 40 years, that Lynn Patterson drilled my first well out there, and subsequently, either Patterson or their predecessors have been the guys that drilled the wells. And what we've always done, if you look at our history, is that when times get tough and prices really go down, we don't stop drilling. That's the times that we feel we make most progress. So I don't wish for bad prices by any means, but Patterson knows just because prices go down, we're not gonna start dropping rigs like they were flies. Each time we take on a rig, we've got a planned sequence of wells for them to drill that fit their you know, their equipment and their location.

And, so I think you'll see us, even if prices go down, we're gonna keep rigs running, and that's the times that we feel we make the most progress, Chris.

Chris Calvert (EVP and COO)

Yeah, yeah, 100%. That, that is something that we are very proud of. When we've seen some of these, you know, pricing environments where oil dips down in, in, say, COVID times, we did make some of those best operational achievements, whether it was State Line wells, you know, lateral length extensions into two and two+ mile laterals, simul-frac. All these things were, were a function of the work that was done during a down cycle in the commodity price. And so if we didn't have that maintained level of activity, you know, we wouldn't be talking about some of the operational prowess that we have today.

Neal Dingmann (Managing Director)

No, that all makes sense. We'd love the details. And then, Joe, maybe a question to you or Brian, just around my side question. You know, noting that you don't have 2024 specific guidance, but you mentioned potential higher production. And I'm just wondering, given the higher production, but in the release, you guys talked about the better than expected D,C&E capital expenditures and midstream expenditures. I'm just wondering, are you able to give some, you know, maybe goalpost or some just broader issues around what maybe the spend might look like next year if you add that eighth rig?

Joe Foran (Founder, Chairman and CEO)

Well, I'd just say, Neil, in February, we've announced that we'll be giving you this detail, and if it comes together earlier, we'll be happy to share it with you.

Neal Dingmann (Managing Director)

Okay. Okay. I was just curious, given how good the DC&E sounds like it's continuing to go.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Please stand by for our next question, which comes from the line of Tim Rezvan of KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Tim Rezvan (Managing Director)

Good morning, folks. I wanted to circle back on gas processing one more time and try to sort of tie a bow on the issue for 2024, because it's a big debate point in the marketplace. You're ending the year with 47 wells in progress. You've committed to 8 rigs, and we don't expect to see a new plant operational before 2025. So as you build out your drill schedule, what level of confidence do you have that every single well you're gonna bring online, you will have either in-house or third-party processing? Just trying to understand, will that be a constraint on the program next year?

Glenn Stetson (EVP of Production)

Hi, Tim. This is Glenn Stetson, EVP of Production. I would say very confident. We have, you know... The way that these two businesses have worked together, well, three businesses now with Pronto, you know, between the midstream and the upstream side of the business, you know, we are constantly talking to each other about our development plans and looking for, you know, looking into the future to make sure that we have adequate capacity. So, and there's obviously multiple variables that account for that. You know, the gathering is one, the processing is another, and then, you know, how do we get gas out of the basin? And so, we, you know, we pride ourselves in having optionality.

We pride ourselves on having multiple options when it comes to getting our gas out of the basin and having different options for gathering and processing. And so we have redundancy in a lot of cases at some of our more prolific facilities where we can, you know, we actually have options for our gas. And so Gregg and Joe highlighted it earlier, you know, as we look into 2024 something that, you know, will provide some more capacity for us is this connection down to the Advance properties in Southern Ranger, and then over to, you know, from Pronto to San Mateo to swing gas there.

So, we are, you know, aware of all the activity that's going on in the basin and again are preparing ourselves for as many different scenarios as possible. But again, the strategic nature of having your midstream businesses that provide flow assurance for the upstream business, I think is unique to Matador. And certainly, you know, as somebody who's really in charge of production, it gives me a lot of comfort and again confidence in our ability to execute on, you know, the plans that we put out.

Tim Rezvan (Managing Director)

Yeah. I appreciate the comprehensive answer to the question. Then as a follow-up, I remember in the past, as it related to 2023, management had talked about it as a, you know, pass the ball around year in terms of, you know, rigs being spread across your footprint. How do you think about rig allocation in 2024, you know, given the really high oil cuts in Ranger, but, you know, possible, you know, gathering things up there? Thank you.

Tom Elsener (EVP of Reservoir Engineering)

Okay. Hey, Tim, this is Tom Elsner again. You know, the way we think about it is, you know, all the different asset areas have contributed in a very meaningful, meaningful way. We've, you know, we've certainly, you know, the Ranger wells, as we've, as we've talked about a little bit today, it's something we're very proud of. You know, we have a big batch of wells coming online in Arrowhead here in the fourth quarter, and we've been in Antelope Ridge, you know, for, for many, many years. These new horseshoe wells under the Wolf area, we're, our teams are very proud of those. Russell Briggs has been making some great strides in creating-...

You know, 2-mile laterals out of some of the shallower targets and reusing some of the same, you know, drilling pads and infrastructure over the last several years. And so, you know, I, I do, I do think we'll probably spread the ball around. But it's, you know, it's too early, really, to get into those details today. But certainly, all of our, all of our teams are contributing in a very meaningful way.

Joe Foran (Founder, Chairman and CEO)

Yeah. And I just would add that I understand you'd like to have all these numbers in detail today, but it's not in our best interest to do so with all the volatility and the options there are. We'll have them for you. It's just the timing, it didn't fall on today. We may have them by the end of the year, but as things come together, but you want to see, is Congress going to come to an agreement? You'd like to think they are, but you don't. You'd rather see it happening. And the same thing, you'd like to see them resolve the problems in the Middle East, but until they're resolved a little bit or a truce or something, you're not sure what's going to happen.

And we're better off to do those things that we know we're going to do and plan to do them and plan to have growth, plan to meet the targets that we've already announced to you, like the 150,000. But going beyond that is probably not prudent, and get fixed to a plan that circumstances may necessitate a change. So, the outlook is very positive, and that as good as 2023 is, we feel 2024 is going to be even better, and 2025 is shaping up.

So I wouldn't get lost in the forest for the trees and realize that whatever's happening, we've got plenty of optionality and that we have, we're going to have production growth, we're going to continue to reduce debt, and we're going to have plenty of free cash flow to use as the year suggests its best use. So I just encourage all of you to look at the picture and look at our record for performance and see that we've made a lot of great strides in good times and in bad times, and we'll be ready for whichever environment that we have. And so, you know, I think those that do so will see this as a good buying opportunity, and things are headed in the right direction.

Our leverage ratio is less than one, so there's plenty of financial strength between whatever decision that we make on rigs. And you talk about prices falling out, but you could have vendor costs come down dramatically. So you even improve on what we did this year. So I think the team has proven itself and give us some time and opportunity to show how we'll make the most of these uncertain times.

Tim Rezvan (Managing Director)

I appreciate it. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Leo Mariani of Roth MKM.

Leo Mariani (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Hey, guys. Wanted to touch base on a couple of numbers here. You guys are guiding to kind of higher fourth quarter LOE. Just wanted to get a sense what was sort of driving that. I'm thinking maybe that you guys are trying to finish with some of your midstream connections and kind of finish replumbing some of the Advance properties. So just wanted to get a sense if that kind of comes down when that work is finished. And on cash taxes, you all talked to 1% of pretax income in 2023. Wanted to get a sense if you guys had a ballpark estimate on that for 2024.

Glenn Stetson (EVP of Production)

Hey, Leo, this is Glenn. I'll take the first one, I'll let Rob, Rob take the second one on cash taxes. So on LOE, yeah, we did, we did guide slightly higher for Q4. Really, Leo, the bulk of the work that we did in order to integrate the Advance assets is mostly complete. We do expect to see those efficiencies really, you know, going into 2024. Really, Lea County in general has some higher OpEx, you know, because it's effectively where, you know, kind of San Mateo isn't. And so, and then also the fact that really Advance had some higher LOE costs. So we have really seen those, the LOE on a per unit basis has flattened.

And you know, kind of we'll see, we'll see how things shake out with commodity prices and oil field service costs into 2024, but feel, you know, feel really good about 2023. And really last quarter, you know, changing that guidance, and reducing it from the $5.25-$5.75 on a per unit basis, down to the $5-$5.50. So, anyhow, we have seen, after taking over Advance, realizing those savings enough that even last quarter, we were able to reduce our projections and kept those the same for Q4.

Rob Macalik (EVP and CFO)

Leo, this is Rob Macalik. I'm the EVP and Chief Accounting Officer. So two things kind of moved in our favor since the last quarter. One of those, we estimated higher 2023 revenue, both because of production and price.

... and we had lower operating and capital cost estimates for the year. So that led to a little bit higher estimated taxable income, and then, thus, our estimate of about a 1% cash tax payment that we'll make for the year. We're obviously doing everything we can to plan for that and to work on our deductions that we can to minimize our income tax payments. For 2024, there are a few things that we're still analyzing and studying in addition to the plans for the year. We're also waiting for IRS guidance on the Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax, which would be a 15% book tax.

But we think there are several things in the guidance that, we're waiting for that we're going to be able to do better than that.

Leo Mariani (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Okay, that's helpful, guys. I was also hoping to see if you guys could follow up a little bit on M&A. There's obviously been some significant deals done in the Permian here in 2023. You guys obviously did one of those, you know, with the Advance deal. How are you kind of thinking about it going forward? Do you think the focus is kind of more ground game, you know, kind of brick by brick approach here? Or do you think that there may be some larger deals that Matador could eventually be involved in?

Joe Foran (Founder, Chairman and CEO)

Well, this is Joe, and I'd emphasize that it's like being in a football game. Are you going to run more, or are you going to pass more? It all depends on the opportunities and how things go. We try to make sure we have enough of a ground game every year that we're going to hit our growth and production increase, you know, cash free cash flow increase, pay down debt, do all those essentials. And on the acquisition side, you know, we tend to just be opportunistic. We don't do a lot, but you can see in our history that when we've done deals, they've been accretive to what we're trying to do and has enhanced the ground game. So, we're open to acquire...

We're more of an acquirer than we are a seller. But we're very open to buying something, but we want it to make sense. We're not trying to get bigger as much as we're trying to get better, and to acquire interest in our existing wells from people or something like that has a fit to our acreage positions or our midstream. So we're always open for deals. Van, can you comment? You're our lead guy on this.

Van Singleton (Co-President)

Yeah, Joe, I think, you know, what you're saying is right, and I think you guys have heard this from us, for a decade or so, that we're always on the lookout for good deals. We're gonna make sure that we keep the balance sheet strong, and when opportunities present themselves that we feel like are going to give our, acreage position an enhancement, whether it be in existing units or expanding into new units, we're going to take a hard look at it, and if the deal is right, we'll do it. But, I think Joe's right. We're buyers, and we're always looking.

Leo Mariani (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Trafford Lamar of Raymond James.

Trafford Lamar (Equity Research Associate)

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one I have, it circles around the Horseshoe wells. How did the cycle times on these wells compare to your more standard 2-mile laterals? Just any color on that would be great.

Chris Calvert (EVP and COO)

Yeah. Hi. Hi, Trafford. This is Chris Calvert, again, EVP, COO. You know, I think cycle times, when we look at these, these, I want to always remind people, these were part of a larger 9-well batch, these two, these two Horseshoe wells. But, you know, from, from a reference point, for example, looking back to a previous, you know, our previous record for drilling a 2-mile Wolfcamp A in, in our Wolf asset area, you know, one of these Horseshoes actually beat that record by about 20% from a spud to spud to TD. So, you know, when you think about just cycle times, it's, it's hard to put a number on it because it's highly dependent on the quantity of wells within the batch. But from just drilling times, completion times, you know, they're very comparable to a straight 2-mile lateral.

You know, I think we kind of like to joke, the drill bit doesn't necessarily know it's drilling a U-turn. It just, you know, with the new technologies, whether it's new bit technologies, new motor technologies, we continue to go out and perform, whether it's a U-turn well like we did on this or other 2 miles, 2.5, and even 2.7s that we're looking to put online here in the next year. It's just always about continuing to drill fast and reduce those cycle times.

Trafford Lamar (Equity Research Associate)

Perfect. Appreciate that, Chris. And then just a quick one here, just to clarify: Have you all already signed the contract and secured the additional eighth rig for 1Q 2024, or is that happening later this quarter?

Chris Calvert (EVP and COO)

This is Chris again. It's likely to happen here in the short term, here in the next week or two, few weeks, whatever it could be. Once again, leaning into and valuing the relationship with Patterson, it is right now we have an understanding that we will be adding a rig in the first quarter of next year.

... you know, obviously highly predicated on the super-spec capabilities of that rig to make sure it's drilling wells in a manner that we've grown used to. And so that's kind of the storyline there.

Trafford Lamar (Equity Research Associate)

Great. Appreciate it. Thanks, guys.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Kevin McCurdy of Pickering Energy Partners.

Kevin MacCurdy (Director of Research)

Hey, good morning, Joe and team. Just, just one question for me today. We noticed realized oil prices have gone back to being above WTI, both through actuals in third quarter and the guidance for fourth quarter. I wonder if you could talk about what you're seeing there that has improved over the first couple of quarters, earlier this year.

Brian Willey (EVP)

Yeah, this is Brian, and I think Gregg can feel free to chime in as well. But, you know, I think just looking at the price of oil, I think part of it's the role as we've looked at this historically, and just how the price is calculated and the realized pricing. And so, that's something that we saw an impact from, you know, looking at second quarter to third quarter and even first quarter to second quarter. And so I think as we look forward going, you know, into the future, I think that's a big piece of it, is just how the role plays an effect in the realized pricing.

Also, I'll just say, I think one of the big benefits we have is that a lot of the marketing team's done a very good job in getting much of our oil on pipe. And so I think that's really significant because we are able to save a cost there and be able to incur those savings there by getting a higher realized price. But Gregg, I don't know if you have anything else you wanted to add.

Gregg Krug (EVP of Marketing and Midstream Strategy)

Well, yeah, I think as far as the amount of oil on pipe, it also helps, you know, versus, you know, versus being trucked. It's a lot more efficient. It helps operations, as well, streamline that. And so that's a big benefit, to be able to have as much oil on pipe as we do.

Joe Foran (Founder, Chairman and CEO)

I'll just add that, yesterday, we put out our sustainability report. I give credit to the team that pulled that together. I think it's in good shape. Makes for good nighttime reading. And it's good reference material. So, you know, take a look at that. And we've worked hard to put more and more on pipe and to reduce our emissions by 44%.

Shelley Alpern (Director)

Sure. This is Shelley Appel, and Director and former ESG Coordinator. I will say that in 2022, we had 89% of our operated produced oil on pipe. And to Joe's point, we're very, very pleased that from 2019 to 2022, we reduced our greenhouse gas intensity by 44%, so almost cutting it in half over that four-year period.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Oliver Huang of TPH & Company.

Oliver Huang (Director)

Good morning, all, and thanks for taking my questions. My first question, just, with respect to the Arrowhead area. I know there's a significant portion of your Q4 program in New Mexico coming from there. Assume these wells should be online in pretty short order, but was just trying to get a better understanding on plans for getting those wells online. Is the thinking there something similar to kind of the staggered nature we saw out of the Margarita wells, in that Advance area last quarter?

Tom Elsener (EVP of Reservoir Engineering)

This is, Oliver, thanks for the question. This is Tom Elsner again. You know, as we usually do with large batches of wells, we typically would bring them online in some sort of staggered fashion. You know, some of the wells could use artificial lift, you know, at varying times. But, you know, again, this is something we've historically done, you know, all throughout the basin, whether that's, you know, Stateline or Rodney or any other areas that are kind of large batches of wells. We're very excited for these wells. This is an area that, you know, we've been building up to for many years, getting these targets ready, making sure that, you know, San Mateo and the team are up there.

And so I know, you know, Glenn and the team are excited to get these wells up and running.

Glenn Stetson (EVP of Production)

Yeah, Oliver, this is Glenn. I'd just add that the 17 wells are gonna come in at different times, and they're actually on different development units and delivered to different facilities. And so, a little bit different than the Advance situation where you had 21 wells going to one facility. But Tom, just what Tom said was is exactly accurate. We'll bring them on, you know, a few at a time. And then, you know, they're all delivering to San Mateo, oil, gas, and water, so we'll help bolster volumes there.

Oliver Huang (Director)

Awesome. That's helpful. And just for a second question, I know in the past, you all have called out activity or even certain pads that might require incremental downtime or shut-ins. So I'm just kind of thinking about this next batch of 20 or so wells in the Advance area in early 2024. Are we gonna need to see some of the recently online Margarita wells either being curtailed or shut in when those come online on the backdrop of, I guess, tighter infrastructure? Not sure if the next set of wells is far enough in proximity within Ranger to where such impacts might be deemed relatively minimal, but, really just trying to understand that dynamic as well as we enter next year.

Glenn Stetson (EVP of Production)

... Oliver, this is Glenn again. The short answer is, is no. We, the Dagger Lake South development of those, the further, the additional 21 wells are, are not in proximity to the Margarita wells. And so, that, the nature of shutting in wells for offset frack protection won't be a situation on this particular development.

Oliver Huang (Director)

Awesome. Thanks for the time.

Glenn Stetson (EVP of Production)

Yep.

Operator (participant)

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This ends the Q&A portion of this morning's conference call. I'd like to turn the call over to management for any closing remarks.

Joe Foran (Founder, Chairman and CEO)

Well, thanks to everyone for their time and attention in this. I would like to emphasize the fundamentals. I've said it once already, we started the year at 100,000 barrels. We're gonna end the year not just at 140, but 145,000 barrels. That's a 40-45% growth. And meanwhile, we reduced the debt over $200 million from this while we were keeping those rigs busy and bringing those wells online. In addition, Glenn reduced LOE expenses. Through time, we reduced our drilling cost per foot in a time of rising service cost, and we've continued to build out the midstream opportunities, improved ESG. So I think it's been a really good year to this point and a really good quarter.

As you know, the stock is off during trading. I admit, but I think it's a buying opportunity, and I've never sold a single share of my stock during the 12 years that we've been public, and so have most of the other officers. If you look at it, we're buyers of stock and not sellers, and which and have great participation from our staff. I think anybody who buys at this point is gonna be real pleased with the final year's outcome. I can understand you would like to have us have numbers exact as we think things are gonna be, but that's not the long-term right thing to do, nor is it prudent in a time of such volatility. We can tell you that we're gonna be profitable.

We're gonna keep that leverage ratio less than one, unless some spectacular opportunity shows itself. But ever, every moment is to keep the balance sheet strong, production growing, costs coming down, and, continued good execution. We think midstream enhances our opportunity because it assures us of, flow assurance. And as I often said to people on the road, that if you're gonna be a cotton farmer in Dawson County, you need to own part of the cotton gin. The midstream purchase is that same deal. If you want to get your cotton processed, properly, own part of the cotton gin. And we think that midstream has come in, to deliver efficiencies and predictability to what we're doing. So we haven't missed on anything.

We just had to have detail for you, and that's coming, but we can't do it with full confidence until things settle down a little bit. Take another look at the fundamentals and come see us. We invite all of you. If you want a more thorough discussion and more time with our senior people, come see us. We'll set you up and make sure you leave with your all your questions answered, that we're allowed to under the SEC rules. We play a straight game, but we're happy to go in further detail on your questions if you can make it here, and would like to get to know you all better. But I think you can see that we have strength in areas.

Our properties are getting better, our people are getting better, and, you know, the outlook continues to get better. So that's what I'd like to end on, with a personal invitation to come see us. Who I didn't get speak today is Ned, our head of our geoscience group, and the outlook for them on working with the acreage that we, that we have, the number of locations, and the inventory continues to grow, you know, 10, 15, 20 years out, that we see that coming, and their work and staying in zone all contribute to these good results.

So we wouldn't have raised dividends if we thought our future was weak, and we wouldn't have gotten the increase in our reserve-based loans that we did from the banks unless they saw that we had plenty of reserves and inventory, and we're headed in the right direction financially. So with that, I'd like to thank you again for your time and attention, and today, we look forward to getting with you the next time. We'll have more detail, but we're gonna still maintain our flexibility and options, 'cause at our size, we think one of our strengths is trying to be nimble enough to take advantage of opportunities as they come up, rather than trying to give a five-year outlook. Too much change occurs, and what served us well is being able to adapt to the changing circumstances.

Come see us. This is a great team and great properties, and we'll go into greater depth. Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation today. This concludes today's program.