MT
MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC (MU)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Micron delivered record fiscal Q3 2025 revenue of $9.30B, up 15% sequentially and 37% YoY, with non-GAAP EPS of $1.91; data center revenue more than doubled YoY and HBM revenue grew ~50% sequentially, driving all-time-high DRAM revenue .
- Gross margin reached 39.0% (non-GAAP), above guidance midpoint, as pricing improved across DRAM/NAND despite a heavier consumer mix; adjusted free cash flow rose to $1.95B .
- Initial FQ4 guidance called for $10.7B revenue and 42% non-GAAP GM; Micron later raised FQ4 guidance to $11.2B revenue and 44.5% non-GAAP GM, citing stronger DRAM pricing and execution; non-GAAP EPS lifted from $2.50 to $2.85 (raised) .
- Liquidity stood at $15.7B and net debt fell to ~$3B, providing flexibility to invest in HBM capacity and 1-gamma DRAM while maintaining dividends and opportunistic buybacks .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Record quarter with revenue $9.30B and non-GAAP EPS $1.91; “Micron delivered record revenue in fiscal Q3… we are on track to deliver record revenue with solid profitability and free cash flow in fiscal 2025” — Sanjay Mehrotra .
- HBM momentum: HBM revenue rose nearly 50% sequentially; DRAM non-GAAP gross margin expanded, with steady HBM pricing and strong yield ramp on 12‑high HBM3E; HBM run-rate surpassed $6B based on Q3 performance .
- Cash generation and balance sheet: operating cash flow $4.61B; adjusted FCF $1.95B; liquidity $15.7B; net debt ~$3B, enabling continued investment and capital returns — CFO .
What Went Wrong
- Consumer mix weighed blended DRAM ASPs; DRAM prices were up like-for-like but the higher consumer-oriented mix lowered blended ASPs sequentially; NAND pricing declined high single digits amid more challenging market backdrop .
- Legacy DRAM (DDR4) shortages amid EOL transition; DDR4 is low single-digit % of revenue in the second half and on allocation; LPDDR4+DDR4 combined ~10% revenue; customers face tightening supply near term .
- Tariff-related customer pull-ins added modest noise to order timing, though management emphasized overall impact was small and demand signals remain constructive .
Financial Results
DRAM/NAND and Business Unit mix
Balance sheet and liquidity KPIs
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Micron delivered record revenue in fiscal Q3… Data center revenue more than doubled year-over-year… We are on track to deliver record revenue with solid profitability and free cash flow in fiscal 2025” — Sanjay Mehrotra .
- “We’re down now to a net debt of $3 billion… $15.7 billion in liquidity… invest in DRAM capacity to serve HBM and other high-value markets, grow the routine dividend, and do opportunistic repurchase” — Mark Murphy .
- “HBM pricing is steady; like-for-like DRAM pricing improved sequentially; the mix change on the consumer side lowered the blended ASP” — Sumit Sadana .
- “HBM4 trade ratio higher than HBM3E; performance >60% higher, ~20% lower power; sampling now, ramp aligned to customers in 2026” — Sanjay Mehrotra .
Q&A Highlights
- Gross margin drivers: Better-than-expected pricing, favorable mix (more DRAM and more data center), and improving costs support the 39% Q3 and 42% Q4 guide; management expects margins can rise beyond Q4 with continued price/mix focus .
- DDR4 dynamics: DDR4 pricing tight but small exposure; DDR4 is low single-digit % of revenue; DDR4+LPDDR4 ~10%; EOL process driving allocations and shortages near term .
- LPDRAM (server): Micron maintains a sole-source position; expects LP penetration in data center to grow, reinforcing power/performance leadership .
- Tariff-related pull-ins: Impact characterized as modest; demand signals for the remainder of CY2025 remain healthy across end markets .
- Capital allocation: Net leverage reduced; priority to invest in HBM/DRAM and technology leadership while maintaining dividends and opportunistic buybacks .
Estimates Context
- Q3 FY25 actuals vs S&P Global consensus: Micron beat on revenue, EPS, and EBITDA.
- Revenue: $9.301B vs $8.826B consensus — beat*
- Primary EPS (non-GAAP proxy): $1.91 vs $1.595 consensus — beat*
- EBITDA: $4.245B vs $4.137B consensus — beat*
Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Subsequent quarter (Q4 FY25) context: Consensus sat near $11.16B revenue and $2.86 EPS; Micron raised guidance mid-quarter, then ultimately reported revenue and EPS above consensus (post-Q4) — confirming momentum in pricing/mix* .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Structural AI tailwinds are translating to financial outperformance: record Q3, stronger-than-initial Q4 guide, and subsequent Q4 beats signal durable price/mix momentum in DRAM/HBM .
- HBM execution and roadmap are central to the thesis: 12‑high HBM3E yields/volume ahead of expectations; HBM4 sampling with >60% performance uplift and improved power efficiency positions Micron for 2026 platform ramps .
- Near-term mix management matters: more data center and DRAM mix offsets consumer price pressure; management is explicitly steering pricing/mix to sustain margin expansion .
- Legacy DRAM EOL creates transitory tightness (DDR4/LPDDR4), but exposure is small; healthy demand signals and allocation discipline minimize risk .
- Cash flow and balance sheet provide strategic flexibility: $1.95B adjusted FCF in Q3, $15.7B liquidity, and ~$3B net debt enable continued capacity investments and shareholder returns .
- NAND remains more challenging; Micron is managing structural capacity (-10% YoY by FY-end) and pacing node transitions to premium products while closely watching inventories .
- For trading: catalysts include continued HBM wins (AMD MI350), data center SSD share gains (9550 on NVIDIA GB200 NVL72), and confirmation of margin trajectory above 42% in the November quarter .
* Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Citations:
Q3 results, margins, EPS, cash flow, and guidance .
Segment/business unit detail, DRAM/NAND pricing, inventory days .
HBM run-rate, HBM3E/4 execution, LPDRAM sole-source .
DDR4 supply and EOL allocations .
Tariff-related comments .
Raised FQ4 guidance .
Prior quarters press releases (Q1/Q2) .
AMD MI350 HBM design-in .