Executive Summary

Q3 2025 delivered operational strength: production rose sequentially to 200.4 MBOEPD and 94.1 MBOPD, beating guidance high-end; operating expense fell to $9.39/BOE, down 20% vs Q2 and aided by Eagle Ford cost cuts and record Tupper Montney volumes .
Headline beats vs consensus: Adjusted diluted EPS of $0.41 and revenue of $0.721B exceeded Wall Street estimates of $0.18 and $0.671B; GAAP EPS was a loss of $0.02 due to a non-cash $92M impairment tied to the Dalmatian asset capital allocation shift . Estimates marked with asterisk below (values retrieved from S&P Global).
Guidance was reaffirmed: full-year production 174.5–182.5 MBOEPD and FY CAPEX $1,135–$1,285MM maintained; Q4 production guided to 176–184 MBOEPD and exploration expense $80MM; Q4 OpEx guided to $10–$12/BOE .
Balance sheet progress: $50MM revolver paydown, liquidity ~$1.6B, total debt $1.4B; returned $46MM via dividend; $550MM buyback authorization remains .
Near-term stock catalysts: continued cost discipline, strong onshore well performance, Gulf of America uptime, and high-impact Vietnam/Côte d’Ivoire exploration/appraisal updates (HSV-2X, Civette) in 4Q–1H26 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Production outperformed guidance: 200.4 MBOEPD and 94.1 MBOPD, driven by strong Eagle Ford and Tupper Montney well performance and no storm downtime in the Gulf of America; Gulf facilities uptime was exceptional (Delta House 100%, King’s Quay 99.9%, Pioneer 99.8%) .
Operating cost reduction: company-wide OpEx fell to $9.39/BOE (down $2.41/BOE vs Q2), aided by Eagle Ford cost initiatives (workforce, maintenance, rentals, water disposal) and low-cost Tupper volumes; management targets Q4 OpEx of $10–$12/BOE .
Strategic progress: LDV (Golden Camel) platform jacket installed and development drilling initiated; exploration program across three continents progressing, including HSV-2X appraisal (Vietnam) and Civette exploration (Côte d’Ivoire) .

Quoted management remarks:

“We remain focused on core execution as we progress our impactful offshore exploration and appraisal program across three continents in the fourth quarter.” — Eric M. Hambly, CEO .
“Operating expenses improved further in the third quarter to $9.39 per BOE... 20 percent lower than in the second quarter.” .

What Went Wrong

GAAP loss due to impairment: $92MM (ex-NCI) pretax impairment on Dalmatian after removing future wells from the plan, reflecting high third-party host cost allocations; Adjusted EPS still positive at $0.41 .
Natural gas headwind: realized Canadian gas prices averaged USD$1.22/MCF amid weak AECO shoulder-season pricing, pressuring revenue mix (gas ~47% of production); forward sales helped mitigate .
Sequential CAPEX below plan: Q3 CAPEX was $164MM (ex-acquisition) vs $260MM prior quarterly guidance, largely timing of exploration and long-lead development; Q4 expected $370–$390MM .

Financial Results

Headline vs Estimates (Q3 2025)

Metric	Consensus	Actual	Surprise
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$0.671*	$0.721	+$0.050 (Beat)
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)	$0.18*	$0.41	+$0.23 (Beat)
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	N/A	($0.02)	Impairment-driven miss

Note: Asterisked values retrieved from S&P Global.

Trend vs Prior Periods

Metric	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Revenue from production ($USD Billions)	$0.753	$0.683	$0.721
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$0.93	$0.16	($0.02)
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)	$0.74	$0.27	$0.41
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)	$0.397	$0.335	$0.391
EBITDA Margin %	—	52.71%*	57.44%*
Net Cash from Operations ($USD Billions)	—	$0.358	$0.339
Lease Operating Expense ($/BOE)	$11.99	$11.80	$9.39
Net Production (BOEPD)	184,567	189,677	200,383
Oil Production (BOPD)	94,078	89,530	94,067

Note: EBITDA Margin % values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment/Geography (Functional Results)

Segment	Q3 2024 Revenue ($MM)	Q3 2024 Income ($MM)	Q3 2025 Revenue ($MM)	Q3 2025 Income ($MM)
United States (E&P)	$597.0	$138.8	$613.7	$28.9
Canada (E&P)	$157.9	$24.2	$108.0	($6.1)
Other (E&P)	($0.8)	$22.4	$0.1	($12.0)
Corporate	$4.2	($33.7)	$11.2	($18.6)
Total Continuing Ops	$758.3	$151.7	$733.0	($7.8)

KPIs

KPI	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Onshore production (BOEPD)	—	118,000	132,000
Eagle Ford (Oil/Total BOEPD)	—	29,000 / 39,000	35,000 / 49,000
Tupper Montney (Total BOEPD)	—	75,000	78,000
Kaybob Duvernay (Oil/Total BOEPD)	—	2,000 / 4,000	3,000 / 5,000
Offshore production (BOEPD, ex-NCI)	—	72,000	68,000
Gulf of America (Oil/Total BOEPD)	—	53,000 / 66,000	50,000 / 62,000
Offshore Canada (Oil/Total BOEPD)	—	6,000 / 6,000	6,000 / 6,000

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Total Net Production (ex-NCI) (BOEPD)	Q4 2025	N/A	176,000–184,000	New
Exploration Expense ($MM)	Q4 2025	N/A	$80	New
Operating Expense ($/BOE)	Q4 2025	N/A	$10–$12	New
Total Net Production (ex-NCI) (BOEPD)	FY 2025	174,500–182,500	174,500–182,500	Maintained
Capital Expenditures (ex-NCI) ($MM)	FY 2025	$1,135–$1,285	$1,135–$1,285	Maintained
Dividend per share ($)	Current	$0.325	$0.325 (declared Oct 1)	Maintained
Share Repurchase Authorization ($MM)	Current	$550	$550	Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 & Q2)	Current Period (Q3)	Trend
Vietnam exploration/appraisal	Pink Camel discovery; LDV development progressing; HSV discovery noted	LDV jacket installed and dev drilling started; HSV-2X appraisal spud; discussion of reservoir objectives and FID/production timeline	Accelerating execution; resource range tightening
Côte d’Ivoire exploration	Rig signed; program outlined	Civette likely spud by year-end; resequenced Kobus→Bubale for higher odds/lower cost	Program optimized; near-term results expected
Onshore well performance & cost efficiency	Q2 wells strong; CAPEX neutral optimizations; Eagle Ford breakevens improved	Eagle Ford/Catarina wells top historical; drilling cost/ft −8%, completion/ft −9%; breakevens $36/bbl WTI, some as low as $22	Sustained outperformance and lower breakevens
Gulf of America operations	Workovers progressing; Samurai/Mormont timelines	Workover program concluded; uptime exceptional; impairment at Dalmatian due to host costs	Uptime high; portfolio optimization
OpEx trajectory	Q1/Q2 OpEx typical; guidance maintained	Q3 OpEx $9.39/BOE; Q4 guide $10–$12/BOE; drivers explained (mix, workovers)	Improved, normalizing in Q4
Macro oil price stance & capital flexibility	Focused balance sheet; CAPEX ranges	Downcycle playbook: flexible onshore, sticky offshore exploration/appraisal; 2026 CAPEX likely $1.1–$1.3B with mix shifts	Cautious near term; multi-year plan stability

Management Commentary

“I am pleased with our operational performance across our asset base including Eagle Ford, Tupper Montney, and Gulf of America... We remain focused on core execution as we progress our impactful offshore exploration and appraisal program across three continents in the fourth quarter.” — Eric M. Hambly, CEO .
“Operating expenses improved further in the third quarter to $9.39 per BOE... 20 percent lower than in the second quarter.” — Stockholder Update .
“The Civette prospect... has the potential to be quite large, with a mean of over 400 million bbl, upside of a billion bbl range... wells $50–$60MM gross.” — CEO, Q&A .
“We are favorably positioned with a strong balance sheet... total debt and net debt... $1.4B and $1.0B, respectively.” — Stockholder Update .

Q&A Highlights

West Africa exploration program: Civette spud timing and resequencing to Bubale for better risk/cost profile; reference to similar plays to Eni’s Calao discovery .
Vietnam HSV-2X appraisal objectives: testing lateral continuity, thicker pay, deeper oil-water contact; potential additional appraisal and development concepts (FSO/platforms, FPSO redeployment); FID targeted in 2027, production around 2030, possibly earlier with EPS .
Downcycle playbook & CAPEX mix: flexibility to pull down onshore if oil remains ~$55; likely to sustain Vietnam appraisal, Côte d’Ivoire exploration, and LDV development through cycles; 2026 CAPEX range consistent with $1.1–$1.3B .
OpEx drivers and sustainability: Q3 lower due to fewer large offshore workovers, mix shift to low-cost Tupper, durable Eagle Ford cost reductions; Q4 OpEx guided higher on volume normalization .
Eagle Ford decline modeling: high new-well mix drives expected PDP decline in Q4; early declines in line or shallower vs history despite higher IPs .
Buybacks: less likely to be active at ~$60 oil; opportunistic if valuation dislocates .

Estimates Context

Q3 2025 results beat consensus on both EPS and revenue: Adjusted diluted EPS $0.41 vs $0.18*, revenue $0.721B vs $0.671B*; GAAP EPS of ($0.02) reflects non-cash impairment . Asterisked values retrieved from S&P Global.
Potential estimate revisions: improved production trajectory (200.4 MBOEPD vs Q3 guide 185–193), lower OpEx, and robust facility uptime may drive upward revisions to near-term EBITDA/FCF, while gas price volatility and impairment-adjusted GAAP metrics could temper full-year GAAP EPS expectations .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Operational momentum: Two consecutive quarters of production beats and meaningful OpEx reductions demonstrate execution strength; expect normalization but sustained efficiency gains in Q4 .
Quality growth vs capital discipline: LDV development milestones, high-impact HSV-2X appraisal, and Côte d’Ivoire exploration provide resource/catalyst upside within a disciplined CAPEX framework .
Earnings quality: Adjusted EPS and adjusted EBITDA show core performance; GAAP loss is driven by a strategic impairment (non-cash), not deterioration of producing assets .
Onshore portfolio leverage: Eagle Ford breakevens ($36/bbl WTI, some $22) and Tupper Montney record output underpin resilience in a lower oil price scenario .
Gulf of America reliability: Completion of workovers and exceptionally high uptime de-risk near-term offshore volumes; Chinook #8 targeted in 2H26 with compelling initial rate .
Balance sheet and returns: Liquidity ~$1.6B, revolver reduced by $50MM, dividend maintained, $550MM buyback capacity offers optionality if valuation dislocates .
Near-term catalysts: Q4 exploration results (HSV-2X, Civette) and cost/production trajectory into early 2026 will drive narrative and potential re-rating .

S&P Global disclaimer: All asterisked estimate and margin values above were retrieved from S&P Global.

MURPHY OIL CORP (MUR)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary