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McEwen Mining Inc. (MUX)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 revenue of $35.7M missed S&P Global consensus of $39.1M by ~9%; diluted EPS of -$0.12 was roughly in line with consensus of -$0.12, while adjusted EBITDA improved to $8.7M on stronger gold prices . Revenue and EPS consensus values from S&P Global are marked with an asterisk below. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Consolidated production fell to 24,131 GEOs (vs. 33,037 in Q1’24) as Gold Bar pre-stripping and Fox labor/weather weighed, driving higher AISC in Q1; management reiterated full-year production guidance (120k–140k GEOs) and expects costs to ease as volumes rise through 2025 .
  • Liquidity strengthened post the $110M 5.25% 2030 convertible notes (capped call to $17.30), lifting cash to $68.5M and working capital to $61.1M; total debt rose to $130M, but interest expense falls vs prior 9.75% secured facility .
  • Catalysts into 2H: (1) Los Azules feasibility study targeted for July 2025 with capitalization of Copper spend expected to improve reported earnings; (2) initial Stock mine output targeted late Q4 2025; (3) potential ongoing San José dividends at current metal prices .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Adjusted EBITDA rose to $8.7M ($0.16/sh) vs $6.3M in Q1’24, reflecting higher realized gold prices and stronger cash gross profit despite lower GEOs .
  • Liquidity and capital structure improved: cash to $68.5M, WC to $61.1M; convertible notes reduced cost of debt vs 9.75% secured loan and pushed maturities; capped call mitigates dilution up to $17.30 .
  • Exploration/permits de-risking Fox growth: Closure Plan Permit for Stock ramp; Grey Fox resource expanded (Indicated +32% to 1.54Moz at 3.64 g/t; Inferred +95% to 0.46Moz at 3.30 g/t); strong intercepts at Gibson and new corridor at depth .

Management quotes:

  • “Our income statement is going [to] improve as a major expense item will be eliminated once the Los Azules Feasibility Study is published this summer.”
  • “We just received our permit to construct a ramp to the underground at the Stock mine.”
  • “We anticipate that we will have the first production from the underground portion of the Stock mine in the last quarter of this year.”

What Went Wrong

  • Production headwinds: consolidated GEOs fell to 24,131 (vs. 33,037 in Q1’24); Fox GEOs down 26% YoY due to labor/weather; San José GEOs down 16% with weaker grades/recoveries and seasonality .
  • Costs elevated: Gold Bar AISC $2,197/GEO on $7.5M pre-stripping; Fox AISC $2,504/GEO on 33% lower GEOs sold; San José AISC $3,047/GEO on peso strength and lower sales volumes .
  • Mixed financial communication: 8-K reports net loss of $6.3M ($0.12/sh) while the press release text also states $3.9M ($0.07/sh); management on the call referenced a $6.3M loss, and noted Q1 would have been positive if Copper spend were capitalized post-FS .

Financial Results

Headline P&L vs prior year and prior quarter

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenues ($MM)$41.23*$33.52*$35.70*
Net Income ($MM)-$20.38*-$8.23*-$6.27*
Diluted EPS ($)-$0.41*-$0.16*-$0.12*
Adjusted EBITDA ($MM)$6.32 $5.20 $8.71
  • Note: Asterisks indicate values retrieved from S&P Global. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Company-reported Q1 2025 net loss in 8-K is $6.3M ($0.12/sh); the press release text also cites $3.9M ($0.07/sh). Management referenced a $6.3M loss on the call .

Actual vs S&P Global consensus (Q1 2025)

MetricConsensus*ActualSurprise
Revenue ($MM)$39.06*$35.70*-8.6%
Primary EPS ($)-$0.115*-$0.118*-$0.003
  • Asterisks indicate values retrieved from S&P Global. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment production and unit costs

MineMetricQ1 2024Q1 2025FY 2025 Guidance
ConsolidatedGEOs33,037 24,131 120,000–140,000
Gold Bar (NV)GEOs11,716 7,688 40,000–45,000
Gold Bar (NV)Cash Costs/GEO ($)1,088 1,146 1,500–1,700
Gold Bar (NV)AISC/GEO ($)1,201 2,197 1,700–1,900
Fox Complex (ON)GEOs7,486 5,520 30,000–35,000
Fox Complex (ON)Cash Costs/GEO ($)1,555 2,061 1,600–1,800
Fox Complex (ON)AISC/GEO ($)1,928 2,504 1,700–1,900
San José (49%)GEOs12,934 10,924 50,000–60,000
San José (49%)Cash Costs/GEO ($)1,607 2,575 1,600–1,800
San José (49%)AISC/GEO ($)1,947 3,047 1,900–2,100

KPI snapshot

  • Gross profit: $10.1M in Q1’25, +68% YoY on 31% higher average realized gold price .
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $8.7M ($0.16/sh) vs $6.3M ($0.13/sh) in Q1’24 .
  • Cash and cash equivalents: $68.5M; working capital $61.1M (3/31/25) .
  • Total debt: $130M after $110M 5.25% 2030 converts; $20M of 9.75% term loan repaid .

Non-GAAP notes: Cash costs, AISC, cash gross profit, and adjusted EBITDA are non-GAAP; definitions and reconciliations provided in press release/8-K .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Mar 18, 2025)Current Guidance (May 8, 2025)Change
Consolidated GEOsFY 2025120,000–140,000 120,000–140,000 Maintained
Gold Bar GEOsFY 202540,000–45,000; Cash cost $1,500–1,700; AISC $1,700–1,900 40,000–45,000; Cash cost $1,500–1,700; AISC $1,700–1,900 Maintained
Fox Complex GEOsFY 202530,000–35,000; Cash cost $1,600–1,800; AISC $1,700–1,900 30,000–35,000; Cash cost $1,600–1,800; AISC $1,700–1,900 Maintained
San José GEOs (49%)FY 202550,000–60,000; Cash cost $1,600–1,800; AISC $1,900–2,100 50,000–60,000; Cash cost $1,600–1,800; AISC $1,900–$2,100 Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3’24)Previous Mentions (Q4’24)Current Period (Q1’25)Trend
Fox Complex growth (60koz by 2027; 120–150koz by 2030)Stock portal planned; Fox missed Q3 guide on stope failure; planning to improve stope availability Growth plan reiterated; funding earmarked; permit delays affected ramp start Permit for Stock ramp received; first underground production targeted late Q4’25 Improving execution; permits in hand
Gold Bar stripping/AISC phasingQ3 AISC $1,822 with planned stripping; on track for guidance H1’25 cost uptick flagged; improvement later as Pick Phase III ramps Q1 AISC $2,197 due to $7.5M pre-stripping; volumes to rise from early Q2 Near-term headwind, H2 easing
San José costs/dividendsAttributable GEOs 13.7k; high unit costs on peso strength Plant expansion to 2,000 tpd; expected FY25 AISC reduction; dividends anticipated Q1 AISC $3,047 on peso strength/seasonality; dividend received; expect more at current prices Mixed: costs high near-term; dividends supportive
Los Azules FS/capitalizationFS H1’25 targeted; funding raised; project ~90% progressed for FS FS by end Q2’25; RIGI application expected; post-FS expenses to be capitalized FS expected July 2025; post-publication Copper spend to be capitalized; RIGI application filed Feb 11 On track; accounting tailwind
Financing & dilution mitigation—$110M capped-call converts at 5.25% to fund growth; reduced interest cost; capped call to $17.30 Same; cash/WC up; net debt manageable; debt service cost reduced to ~6% Balance sheet improved

Management Commentary

  • Rob McEwen, Chairman and Chief Owner: “We’ve increased our liquidity by using a … capped call convertible note… The majority of these funds will be used to advance the development of our Fox Complex…” .
  • On Q1 Gold Bar costs: “…AISC…~$2,200… was a result of our decision… to accelerate the stripping rate in the first half of this year… about $7.5 million… to increase our production and lower our AISC in the second half of the year.” .
  • On reported earnings and Copper capitalization: “Our income statement is going to look better once the feasibility study for Los Azules has been published… that expense will be capitalized… it will improve our bottom line.” .
  • COO Bill Shaver on Stock: “We anticipate… first production from the underground portion of the Stock mine in the last quarter of this year… ramp down sometime late in the third quarter or early in the fourth quarter.” .
  • On Grey Fox timing/approach: options under study (underground vs. small open pit), permitting could be ~18–24 months optimistically; near-surface ore offers early cash flow potential through Stock mill .

Q&A Highlights

  • Los Azules FS budget/timing: Some additional runway to July may be needed; geotechnical program completed; aiming to finish prior to FS release .
  • San José dividends: JV balancing reinvestment vs. shareholder returns; plant expansion (vertimill) performing; expecting more dividends at current commodity prices .
  • Stock mine ramp/initial production: First underground ore targeted late Q4 2025; ramp breakthrough planned late Q3/early Q4; dewatering/surveying underway .
  • Grey Fox strategy: Studying access/permits and mine plan; potential for underground or small open pit; priority to route ore to Stock mill to generate early cash flow .
  • Earnings sensitivity/optics: Management reiterated capitalization of Copper post-FS would have made Q1 positive net income; noted lower debt service cost and stronger gold price backdrop .

Estimates Context

  • Revenue missed S&P Global consensus ($35.70M* vs $39.06M*). EPS roughly in line (-$0.118* vs -$0.115*). FY 2025 consensus: revenue $199.3M*, EPS $0.137* [GetEstimates]. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Estimate revisions risk: H1 cost inflation (Gold Bar stripping, San José peso) and Fox volume ramp may bias near-term EBITDA lower; however, management reiterated FY production and unit cost guidance ranges, with H2 cost relief expected as volumes rise .
  • Watch for potential positive estimate revisions tied to: sustained gold/silver strength, successful early Stock ore in Q4’25, and earnings optics post Copper capitalization in Q3 .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term: Headline miss on revenue with cost headwinds masked improving EBITDA; Q2 should show volume normalization at Gold Bar and early improvement at Fox as hiring and weather normalize .
  • Medium-term: Stock ramp drives 2026 Fox production growth; Grey Fox PFS later in 2025 is a key de-risking milestone for 2027/2030 growth targets .
  • Balance sheet: $110M converts reduce interest cost and extend maturities; capped call limits dilution up to $17.30, providing valuation support during execution .
  • Copper catalyst: Los Azules FS (target July) plus RIGI progress could improve reported earnings (expense capitalization) and crystallize value via strategic/financing steps .
  • San José optionality: At current metal prices, JV dividends can continue even as unit costs remain elevated; plant improvements and throughput increases expected to reduce unit costs later in 2025 .
  • Cost trajectory: Expect AISC to decline through 2025 as Gold Bar moves beyond heavy stripping and Fox volumes recover; Q1 represents the cost peak for the year at both assets .
  • Execution risks: Fox labor/weather and Argentina peso strength can affect unit costs; permitting timelines (Grey Fox) remain uncertain despite management’s efforts .

Additional details and supporting data

  • Consolidated production and costs table (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024, with FY 2025 guidance) provided above; non-GAAP definitions and reconciliations included in company releases .
  • Liquidity and capital structure changes: cash $68.5M, WC $61.1M, total debt $130M; convertible notes 5.25% due 2030, initial conversion at $11.25 with capped call raising effective conversion at maturity to $17.30 .
  • Production by mine and unit costs: Gold Bar 7,688 GEOs (AISC $2,197); Fox 5,520 GEOs (AISC $2,504); San José attributable 10,924 GEOs (AISC $3,047) .