Mueller Water Products - Earnings Call - Q2 2013
May 1, 2013
Transcript
Speaker 0
Welcome and thank you all for holding. I like to remind all parties that your lines are on a listen only mode until the question and answer segment of today's conference. Also, this call is being recorded. Objections, please disconnect at this time. I will now turn the call over to Ms.
Marti Zakas. Ma'am, you may begin. Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Mueller Water Products twenty thirteen second quarter conference call. We issued our press release reporting results of operations for the quarter ended March 3133 yesterday afternoon.
A copy of it is available on our website muellerwaterproducts.com. Mueller Water Products had 157,800,000.0 shares outstanding at March 3133. Discussing the second quarter's results this morning are Greg Hyland, our Chairman, President and CEO and Evan Hart, our CFO. This morning's call is being recorded and webcast live on the Internet. We have also posted slides on our website to help illustrate the quarter's results as well as to address forward looking statements and our non GAAP disclosure requirements.
At this time, please refer to slide two. This slide identifies certain non GAAP financial measures referenced in our press release, on our slides and on this call and discloses the reasons why we believe that these measures provide useful information to investors. Reconciliations between non GAAP and GAAP financial measures are included in the supplemental information within our press release and on our website. Slide three addresses our forward looking statements made on this call. This slide includes cautionary information identifying important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those included in forward looking statements as well as specific examples of forward looking statements.
Please review slides two and three in their entirety. During this call, all references to a specific year or quarter refer to our fiscal year, which ends on September 30. All operating results discussed in these prepared remarks are from continuing operations unless specified otherwise. A replay of this morning's call will be available for thirty days after the call at 607045. The archived webcast and the corresponding slides will be available for at least ninety days in the Investor Relations section of our website.
In addition, we will furnish a copy of our prepared remarks on Form eight ks later this morning. After the prepared remarks, we will open the call for questions. I'll now turn the call over to Greg.
Speaker 1
Thanks, Morty. Thank you for joining us today as we discuss our results for the twenty thirteen second quarter. I'll begin with a brief overview of the quarter, followed by Evan's detailed financial report, which covers key drivers affecting our businesses. I will then provide additional comments on the quarter's results and developments in our end markets as well as our outlook for the third quarter and observations for the second half of the year. We are pleased with our strong second quarter results, having achieved net sales growth of 12.6%, while our adjusted operating income more than doubled from a year ago.
This quarter was our overall best second quarter performance since 02/2008. The quarter's results demonstrate the operating leverage of our Mueller Company business. Mueller Company achieved 21.7% net sales growth year over year and improved adjusted operating income margin by six seventy basis points year over year to 12.5%. In addition, Mueller Company converted 43% of the incremental net sales to adjusted operating income due to higher volume and a favorable product mix. Mueller Company continued to see shipment volumes of its valves, hydrants and brass products increase.
Additionally, net sales of Mueller Company's newer technology product and services again more than doubled in the quarter on a year over year basis demonstrating the traction we believe these products and services are gaining in the marketplace. Anvil's results came in as expected and we believe Anvil could see some growth in the second half of the year as conditions in its end markets are expected to improve. I'll now turn the call over to Evan.
Speaker 2
Thanks Greg and good morning everyone. I'll first review the consolidated results and then discuss segment performance. Consolidated net sales for the twenty thirteen second quarter of $283,100,000 increased $31,600,000 or 12.6% from the twenty twelve second quarter net sales of $251,500,000 due mostly to higher shipment volumes for Mueller Company. Consolidated gross profit was $77,300,000 for the twenty thirteen second quarter compared to $62,100,000 for the twenty twelve second quarter. Gross profit margin improved two sixty basis points to 27.3% from 24.7%.
This improvement was driven primarily by higher shipment volumes and higher salt prices. Consolidated selling, general and administrative expenses as a percent of net sales declined to 18.6% for the twenty thirteen second quarter from 20.1% for the twenty twelve second quarter. Selling, general and administrative expenses were $52,600,000 for the twenty thirteen second quarter compared to $50,600,000 for the twenty twelve second quarter. Adjusted operating income for the twenty thirteen second quarter increased 115% to $24,700,000 from adjusted operating income of $11,500,000 for the twenty twelve second quarter. This increase was driven primarily by higher shipment volumes and higher sales prices.
Adjusted EBITDA for the twenty thirteen second quarter increased to $39,700,000 from $26,700,000 for the twenty twelve second quarter. Trailing twelve months adjusted EBITDA through March 3133 was $141,600,000 Interest expense net for the twenty thirteen second quarter declined to $12,800,000 from $14,000,000 for the twenty twelve second quarter, excluding $1,600,000 of non cash costs for terminated interest rate swap contracts for the twenty twelve second quarter. Interest expense net declined due to lower levels of total debt outstanding. We redeemed $22,500,000 principal amount of our 8.5% senior unsecured notes during the quarter for twenty three point two million dollars plus accrued and unpaid interest. The resulting loss on early extinguishment of debt of $1,400,000 includes the premium paid and the deferred financing cost and original issue discount that were written off.
The twenty thirteen second quarter income tax expense was 2,500,000 on income before income taxes of $10,100,000 or an effective income tax rate of 24.8%. The twenty thirteen second quarter expense was reduced by $1,300,000 for a deferred tax asset valuation allowance adjustment. Excluding this adjustment, the effective income tax rate for the twenty thirteen second quarter would have been 37.6%. Net operating loss carryforwards remain available to offset future taxable earnings. Adjusted net income per diluted share for the twenty thirteen second quarter was $05 compared to an adjusted net loss per diluted share for the twenty twelve second quarter of $01 an improvement of $06 I'll now walk you through the after tax adjustments for both the 2013 and twenty twelve second quarters.
The twenty thirteen second quarter adjusted after tax results exclude the loss from discontinued operations of $1,400,000 the loss on early extinguishment of debt of $800,000 and restructuring expenses of $200,000 offset by the deferred tax asset valuation allowance adjustment benefit of $1,300,000 The twenty twelve second quarter adjusted after tax results exclude the loss from discontinued operations of $100,900,000 a deferred tax valuation allowance expense against beginning of the year deferred taxes of $5,900,000 terminated interest rate swap contract cost of $1,000,000 and restructuring expenses of $600,000 There was a weighted average of 160,000,000 diluted shares of our common stock outstanding for the twenty thirteen second quarter compared to a weighted average of 156,500,000.0 diluted shares outstanding for the twenty twelve second quarter. I'll now move on to segment performance and begin with Mueller Company. All of Mueller Company's business units performed better in the twenty thirteen second quarter compared to the prior year. Net sales for the twenty thirteen second quarter increased 21.7% to 188,100,000 from net sales of $154,500,000 for the twenty twelve second quarter. This increase was due primarily to higher shipment volumes of all of Mueller Company's key products especially metering systems, valves, hydrants and brass products.
Domestic unit shipments of valves and hydrants were up 1513% respectively with brass products about flat. Net sales of the newer technology products and services more than doubled this quarter compared to last year and accounted for more than one third of the net sales growth in the twenty thirteen second quarter. Gross profit margin for the twenty thirteen second quarter improved to 26.8% compared to 21.7% for the prior year. Adjusted operating income for the twenty thirteen second quarter improved 161% to $23,500,000 from adjusted operating income of $9,000,000 for the twenty twelve second quarter. Adjusted operating margin for the twenty thirteen second quarter improved six seventy basis points to 12.5% from adjusted operating margin for the twenty twelve second quarter of 5.8%.
Net sales of our newer technology products and services demonstrated strong growth this quarter more than doubling on a year over year basis. The contribution of these products and services improved meaningfully versus the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA for the twenty thirteen second quarter grew to $34,900,000 compared to adjusted EBITDA for the twenty twelve second quarter of $20,600,000 I'll now turn to Anvil. Net sales for the twenty thirteen second quarter declined to $95,000,000 compared to net sales of $97,000,000 for the twenty twelve second quarter. The decrease resulted primarily from lower shipment volumes.
Adjusted operating income for the twenty thirteen second quarter was 9,200,000.0 compared to adjusted operating income for the twenty twelve second quarter of $10,000,000 Anvil's adjusted operating margin was 9.7 compared to 10.3% for the twenty twelve second quarter. Adjusted EBITDA for the twenty thirteen second quarter was $12,700,000 compared to adjusted EBITDA for the twenty twelve second quarter of $13,500,000 Turning now to a discussion of our liquidity. Free cash flow, is which cash flows from operating activities less capital expenditures was negative $12,300,000 for the twenty thirteen second quarter compared to positive $1,800,000 for the twenty twelve second quarter. The most significant differences between these quarters relates to income tax refunds received in the twenty twelve second quarter and the general timing differences of collection and disbursement activity. For the twenty thirteen second quarter, trailing four quarter average accounts receivable, inventory and accounts payable as a percentage of net sales improved 180 basis points from the twenty twelve second quarter.
At March 3133, total debt was $600,900,000 down $91,600,000 from a year ago. Total debt outstanding included $420,000,000 of 7.32% senior subordinated notes due 2017, dollars 177,800,000.0 of 8.75% senior unsecured notes due $20.20 and $3,100,000 of other. Net debt leverage was four times at March 3133. Using March 3133 data, we had $156,300,000 of excess availability under our asset based credit agreement. I'll now turn the call back to Greg.
Speaker 1
Thanks, Evan. I'll now elaborate on our twenty thirteen second quarter performance and end markets and provide an outlook for our third quarter and observations for the second half of the year. I'll begin with Mueller Company. We believe a number of factors contributed to Mueller Company's strong second quarter performance. Certainly, we think our end markets continued to improve, especially new residential construction.
We saw growth in our housing related valve and hydrant shipments across all sales regions with our strongest growth coming in the South and West, the two regions of the country that also experienced the greatest growth in housing starts. In addition, our January price increase on valves and hydrants was two weeks earlier this year than last year. As a result, with this additional time, in the second quarter of this year, we shipped more orders that were received in advance of our price increase than we did during the same period last year. It was encouraging that most of our distributors were willing to receive their entire order in the second quarter. We believe that although this indicates increased optimism, we note that distributors generally entered the third quarter with higher inventories than last year.
Looking at Bates Mueller Company, which excludes our metering and leak detection products and services, net sales grew 14% year over year. Our metering products continue to make good progress with net sales and bookings more than doubling year over year during the quarter. These products are clearly gaining traction as more than one third of Mueller Company's net sales increase in the quarter came from our metering products. Before discussing our outlook for the third quarter, let me provide an overview of some of the macro drivers in our end markets. While the macroeconomic data reported in the spring have been uneven, the macro factors that impact our markets appear to be holding their own and for the most part remain positive.
The outlook for state and local governments continues to be mixed. While state and local seasonally adjusted tax receipts continue to increase, budgets in many areas remain stressed. On the municipal bond front, new money issuances are up 16% through the first three months of the year compared to last year. And the CPI for water and sewage rates increased by an annualized rate of 6.1% in March year over year. The housing market continues to be one of the bright spots in the economy.
March housing starts topped 1,000,000 units for the first time since June 2008 and represented the fourth consecutive month of greater than 900,000 units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis. According to a survey by Ivy Zelman and Associates, demand for land and lots hit a record high for their survey with the strongest activity especially in the West. It is also important to note that improving housing construction ultimately helps bolster the health of municipalities as local governments benefit from increased property taxes as well as connection fees and other ancillary fees associated with residential construction. Turning now to our outlook for the third quarter. On a year over year basis for the third quarter, we expect Mueller Company's net sales to increase due primarily to volume growth and improved pricing in our core valves, hydrants and brass products.
However, we believe the year over year net sales increase will be substantially less than what we realized in the second quarter on a year over year due to the higher shipments in the second quarter that were driven by the timing of our price increase. While we expect to see nice growth of our metering systems in the third quarter, the year over year comparisons will get tougher when we reach the one year anniversary of our supply agreement with American Water. As a general reminder, sales of these products can be lumpy due to their project oriented nature. Overall, we expect Mueller Company's net sales to increase year over year. However, we believe the growth rate will be less in the third quarter than in the second.
We expect adjusted operating income for Mueller Company to improve across all of its key product categories and for the adjusted operating margin to improve slightly over the prior year. At Anvil, shipment volumes in the third quarter year over year should increase as we expect to see slight improvement in demand from its end markets. We expect to see an increase in demand both in addressed commercial construction and oil and gas markets. We believe this increased volume will result in higher year over year adjusted operating income. For the company as a whole, we believe that twenty thirteen third quarter net sales will increase year over year, primarily attributable to volume increases at both Mueller Company and Anvil.
We expect adjusted operating income to increase nicely and to see an improvement in our overall margin. We think the signs we are seeing in our water markets are mostly positive, reinforcing the previous outlook we provided for the full year. Raw material costs have remained relatively stable and have declined recently. We expect that average cost for all of 2013 will be comparable to cost for 2012 as we expect to benefit from lower raw material costs offset by higher cost of purchased components. Other key variables for 2013 include corporate expenses are estimated to be 30,000,000 to $32,000,000 depreciation and amortization is expected to be $59,000,000 to $61,000,000 and interest expense is expected to be approximately $52,000,000 Our adjusted effective income tax rate should be around 40% for the full year.
Capital expenditures should be between $30,000,000 and $34,000,000 For the full year, we expect free cash flow to be stronger than 2012. Most of our improved free cash flow generation should come from improved income from operations. Additionally, we expect income tax payments and pension contribution to be minimal this year. We are pleased with our second quarter results, especially the operating leverage we achieved at Mueller Company. However, the rate of growth Mueller Company experiences in the second half of the year will depend on how quickly distributors turn the higher levels of inventory they entered the third quarter with and reorder as we move further into the construction season.
Our metering and leak detection products and services continue to grow. Based on the sales funnel and anticipated timing, we continue to expect the newer technology products and services to be profitable for the full year based on second half performance. For Anvil, we believe we could see modest improvement in the second half of the year as conditions in its end markets are expected to improve. With that, I'll open this call for your questions.
Speaker 0
Thank you. Our first question today comes from Mike Wood. Your line is open and please state your company name sir.
Speaker 1
Hi, Macquarie Capital. Are you able to give us some more color in terms of how close the new technology products got to breakeven or what kind of drag they were in the quarter? Yes, Matt. Good morning. From a drag standpoint, they reduced Mueller Company's overall margins by about two eighty basis points.
As I said in my prepared remarks that right now as we look at our funnel of sales opportunities and the growth track that we're on that we think that these businesses could be profitable for the full year due to their second half performance. Now I do have to qualify that. As we've said that I think in the meter business, certainly is a little more project oriented than our base valves and hydrants demand. So demand for can be lumpy. By that, I mean, it would be very easy for an order that we expect to ship in the fourth quarter for our customer to push that three or four or five weeks or even ten weeks and move it into the first quarter.
But as we look at how we stand today, again, as we look at our sales funnel that we think that if we ship the orders that we have in our backlog and on the timing that we expect, receive the orders that we expect to receive and ship those that we do think that we will be profitable for the full year. And I do want to point out a bit that we in the last quarter because of some future opportunities that we're focused on, we have bumped up our R and D spending a bit. But again, if we get the timing of the orders as we expect and ship those as we expect, we think that that would offset even this higher R and D spending. Great. And are you able to quantify at all how you look at the pre buy versus last year?
Maybe how fiscal second quarter was in terms of the expected full year sales in the products that were shipped into distribution? Yes, yes, Matt. We can a little bit and we don't think this is going to impact our full year demand. Certainly just maybe a little bit of timing between Q2 and Q3. But as we said in our prepared remarks that we believe distributor inventory levels were generally higher in the third quarter of this year than they were last.
And as we said, we think it was due to several factors, primarily the timing of our January price increase as well as some I think weather related impact and its impact on construction in some parts of the country. As we said, we get a sense from our distributors that they are more optimistic this year about end market demand than they were at this time last year. But all in all that we think that we estimate that without these pull forward shipments, our net sales at Mueller Company would have grown almost 18%. Operating income would have still more than doubled, would have been up about 120%. And instead of the six seventy basis points improvement in margins, estimate it would have been about five fifty basis points.
So again, a strong quarter. We the pull forward of shipments accentuated the growth in the second quarter, but I think when we look at the full year, we think it will be a wash, just could be a timing between second quarter and third quarter. Very helpful. If I could ask one more question. Can you just talk about how long your lead time is in Anvil and what you're seeing today in orders in talking about the second half inflection?
Sure, Mike. Orders shipments on Anvil, work with a very, very short term backlog there. We measure it in just in a couple of weeks. If we look on a year over year basis, as we said that our bookings were a little mixed, shipments down a little bit. But our field reports that when we look at the second half of the year that we expect to see more commercial construction activity this year than we did a year ago.
And that's certainly that's what supports the comments that I made in the prepared remarks that when we look at the third quarter, we do expect to see a slight increase in shipments and operating income at Anvil. Thank you. Thanks Mike.
Speaker 0
Next we have Walt Lipatak. Your line is open and please state your company name.
Speaker 2
Good morning, Walt. How are you? Good morning. Good morning. Wonder if we can get a little bit more color on the pre buy and just the timing of it.
Kind of what was the date of the price increase?
Speaker 1
Yes. If you look at this year, our price increase was January 23, last year I think February 9. So seventeen days, probably about fourteen working days. So it gave us two weeks. As I said in when I answered Mike's question, it gave us a little more shipments than last year we probably saw in the third quarter.
But all in all, our growth in sales of Mueller Co. Was still up even if we subtract this 18%.
Speaker 2
Okay. Could you tell that there was some sort of a slowdown or some kind of an impact after January 23 or does the business remain strong through?
Speaker 1
It's just our typical it really followed our typical pattern. When we announced the price increase that we allow our distributors to bring orders in forward of that price increase and primarily we do this to protect any outstanding quotations they have or any orders that they've received. But when we look at the it follows the normal pattern. And I would say that when you look at our overall bookings, our overall bookings for valves and hydrants were up on a year over year basis. That would be in fact, you look at our valves and hydrants, they were up anywhere between 911%, the bookings on a year over year basis.
So we still had increased bookings on a year over year basis.
Speaker 2
Okay. After the price increase. And so the comments about moderation in the revenue, is that based on conservatism or is that based on the way that you kind of finished up the quarter and the way things are trending?
Speaker 1
The moderation for revenues in the third quarter is really more dependent that since the and I'm talking on a year over year basis, since our distributors entered the quarter with more inventory than they did a year ago, they're going to be able to satisfy obviously satisfy end use demand or end market demand in the third quarter out of their existing inventory. So that we'll start our shipments when they start reordering our shipments, we'll start shipping those. And it's just a little bit of a question of how much of that will we see in the third quarter or how much of it will move into the fourth quarter. So it's the moderation is more aligned, more generated. Our let me put it this way.
Our discussion of moderation is more generated from the fact that distributors have slightly greater inventories entering the third quarter this year than they did last year. So certainly, as I said we said in our prepared remarks, across the board, they're more optimistic this year about end market demand than they were last year.
Speaker 2
Okay. And then if I could ask just one quick kind of follow-up on that with the weather impact. I wonder if there's any way that you can quantify it and do your in the third quarter, is there a catch up on any loss days because of the weather?
Speaker 1
Yes, good question. Actually, we don't think the weather well, we think that the weather had very little impact on our second quarter performance. And again, we think the timing of our January price increase may have masked the impact from weather. Certainly, while a good portion of The U. S.
Experienced severe weather that limited construction, we believe our shipments didn't suffer much since our distributors received shipment of the orders that they placed earlier in the quarter. Relative to weather, we actually think that we could see maybe a little impact from weather in our in the third quarter as weather could impact the timing of our distributors sales and reorder. In fact, we think that weather impeded construction in April and that could even spill a little bit into early May. We know that in parts of the Northeast and the Midwest, there are still load restrictions on heavy construction equipment and then there's flooding in other parts of the country. So really, I think that the weather could impact how quickly distributors turn their inventory this quarter once delayed projects are released.
But since we had these pull forward of orders, since we were able to ship them and our distributors were willing to take them, we probably didn't have as much of a weather impact in the second quarter.
Speaker 2
Okay, got it. Okay, thank you. Great quarter.
Speaker 0
Nick Pendergast, your line is open and please state your company name.
Speaker 1
Hi, good morning. Nick from BB and T Capital Markets. Good morning, Nick. Good morning. I just had a quick question regarding Mueller Cove volumes.
I understand it's absent this order pull forward. It sounds like you actually saw real demand closer to up 18% versus the 22% that you reported. Can you address maybe how much of that 18% gain was price versus volume? I understand it's probably majority volume, but I'd kind of like to get a handle on that. Yes.
Yeah, The on a percentage basis, we did have positive pricing and I can give you that Well, I guess on average, just how much were you when you did your price increase in January, how much was that on average across the board? Yes, was actually we would not realize much of that price increase on our shipments in this quarter, because as I said that our distributors typically and pull we ship at the old price. So from that standpoint, wouldn't realize the pricing. Understood. Understood.
Okay. So it is almost 100 And to your other question, it added about 12% to our year over year revenues. Got it. Okay. I think subtracting the distributor pull forward about 1010%, 9%, 10% in total.
Speaker 2
Okay. Okay.
Speaker 1
And I guess you kind of led into my other question then. So the price increases are in effect or there was some order pull forward. How are the prices sticking so far, rather the price increases sticking? Right now, we typically expect to realize about 60% to 60% of the price increase. And I would say right now that we see nothing that would say that we won't realize that typical conversion.
Okay. All right. Thank you very much.
Speaker 0
Next we have Matt Fittorio. Your line is open and please state your company name.
Speaker 3
Yes. Good morning, Barclays.
Speaker 1
Good morning, Matt.
Speaker 3
Good morning. Evan, I guess just was hoping you could comment on the capital structure. You've got the higher coupon 8.5% senior notes. How many, if any more calls, the 10% of 103 calls you have on that? And then what are your thoughts on the 7.38% subs that are callable?
Is that something you're looking to address in the near term? Would you be looking to call those bonds currently or are you content to wait and let the call price step down later
Speaker 1
I'll ask Evan to address that.
Speaker 2
Yes. Right Matt. With the redemption that we did in the quarter that was our final 10% call. So from a deleveraging standpoint at this point, we do have a restricted payment basket under our senior indentures for about $65,000,000 with which we can repurchase the 7.375 sub notes, which became callable at 103.68% at 06/01/2012. And then the senior notes, the 8.5% notes are callable at one hundred four point three seven five beginning 09/01/2015.
We certainly continue to evaluate other debt repayment options in our capital structure. And certainly as we've made announcements in the past, if we decide take some action, we would announce that. But everything as we always do is under continual evaluation. But certainly with the debt pay down that we made in the quarter, we have been able to reduce our overall net debt leverage to just about four.
Speaker 3
And are there any, I guess, I'd say abnormal restrictions that the 8.5% put on you addressing the 7.35%? Or is it just sort of typical as long as you're refinancing and you keep it a sub note, you can do the refinancing. Is that correct?
Speaker 2
It's just I would say it's just the standard that you in would a senior indenture. I mean really the restricted payment basket governs the takeout, the redemption of those. But from any refinancing effort, it's really just a standard provision.
Speaker 3
Fair enough. And then just one last question on the cash flow. Appreciate the color that you expect to generate more cash this year than last. I guess the one sort of variable piece that would be helpful to have more color on would be the working capital. I mean it looks like to support your growth working capital has been a use of cash through the first couple of quarters of the fiscal year.
I'm just curious if you can quantify or give us directional color on how much of that cash might come back in the second half of the year?
Speaker 2
As we indicated, free cash flow for 2013 will be stronger, greater than what we saw in 2012. I think roughly 2012 free cash flow was $45,000,000 We expect it to be greater. And the majority of the free cash flow generation, which will occur in the second half of the year this year, similar to last year, the majority of that will be based on operating income performance. There is a as the business grows, there's a natural use of working capital. But we do continue to focus on inventory turns as well as the management of working capital as a percentage of net sales.
So that helps mitigate some of the natural use that you might see. So second half cash flow generation will be more based upon what I'll term as operating income generation.
Speaker 1
Yes, Matt, a little further, still if you look at our inventory turns certainly at Mueller Co, they're Mueller Company, they're up year over year. We're up second quarter last year, we were at 4.2 turns, we're at 4.6 turns. And so as Evan mentioned that we still focus certainly on what we can do on the working capital side. And I think when you
Speaker 2
look at this
Speaker 1
quarter, this quarter typically is a very negative cash flow quarter for us. We do have a bit of an increase in demand because of our price increase. So we're bringing in raw material earlier in the quarter and we're paying for that raw material within the quarter, but most of our shipments are a little back end loaded, so that they're still on the receivable side. So when we get to the third and fourth quarter, especially on the collection side, that's when we start collecting a lot of our receivables. But as Evan said that we're still confident in higher year over year cash flow.
And another area that we pointed out in our prepared remarks certainly from cash taxes, we have the benefit of the NOLs and we're still looking at minimal contribution payments this year.
Speaker 3
Great. Thanks for the color
Speaker 1
and great quarter. Yes. Thanks. Thank you.
Speaker 0
Seth Weber, your line is open and please state your company name.
Speaker 2
Hey, good morning. It's RBC.
Speaker 1
Morning, Good morning, Seth.
Speaker 2
Wanted to revisit the incremental margin topic. Obviously, good in the quarter. If the MS and E business is kind of moving towards profitability, pricing is getting better, material costs I assume are going down. I mean, there any reason to assume why incremental margins couldn't actually be sustainable or better from these levels going forward?
Speaker 1
Seth, a lot of it really depends on really will depend on our mix. And this quarter, because we had a price increase on valves and hydrants, we had a very nice mix of shipments valves and hydrants. And because that's obviously what are the orders that our distributors the products that our distributors pulled forward orders for. But if we could we certainly could see this sustainable based on how what happens in our valve and hydrant volume. We could also see it deteriorate somewhat if valve and hydrants become a smaller percent of the overall mix.
I know that we've talked in the past that we think for total Mueller Co. In the 35 we're comfortable with expecting about the 35% range. But as we saw in this quarter certainly when we have a nice a slightly higher mix of valves and hydrates, we can get that above 40%. And our capacity certainly our capacity utilization continues to be positive. If you look at our total Mueller Co.
This time last year and it obviously varies by our different plant, but we were in the low 50% capacity utilization. And then this quarter, we were in the mid-60s. So very nice increase and that certainly contributed to the conversion margins.
Speaker 2
Right. I think what I heard what I thought I heard you say earlier though was the pricing really didn't hit this quarter, that the pricing increase should actually still be on the comp, which I would assume all drops pricing basically drops to the bottom line, right?
Speaker 1
No, I'm sorry. I'm sorry if I may have misspoke that. We didn't get any realization of the January price increase, but we did get year over year pricing because in the first quarter last year, we didn't get any benefit from that quarter's price increase.
Speaker 2
I see. Okay.
Speaker 1
We got benefit this year from that price increase.
Speaker 2
Okay. That's helpful. Thank you. Are you sensing that your customers are more willing to take price increases this year or is it kind of always been at this whatever 65% take rate or so? Do you think that there's opportunity to drive that number higher as the environment gets better?
Speaker 1
That's a good question. And certainly that our discipline is to be the price leader. So certainly, we have an opportunity to do so, that would be an area that we would concentrate on. I think as where we sit here today, I'm more comfortable saying that we'll probably convert at the historical rate, but always looking for opportunities.
Speaker 2
Okay. Maybe just going back to the MS and E business. I mean, by my math, looks like you're doing something in the, I don't know, mid $30,000,000 revenue range quarterly, something like that, plus or minus. I mean, is that an adequate number? Do you need that number to go higher to absorb costs or is it I'm trying to understand what's the sort of breakeven run rate for revenue would be?
Speaker 1
Yes. If you look at it last year, our metering system Mueller Systems and Echologics were about 8% of Mueller sales. This quarter, they were 14%. So a nice increase, probably not quite to the level that you calculated, but reasonably close. I think what we need is certainly a little more volume, but what will be the bigger impact is the mix.
And when I say the mix is certainly that when we've when we made a decision to improve or increase our penetration of the meter market, we have really focused on the AMI technology. AMI technology has higher margins than our AMR and certainly significantly higher than margins in our mechanical read. So as AMI becomes a bigger percentage of our revenues, that's when we'll see a bigger impact on our bottom line. So it is a little more volume, but certainly a mix greater to AMI will have the biggest impact on our profitability.
Speaker 2
And what's the mix today?
Speaker 1
Today, the mix is it is by far and I'm going to give you it varies by certainly varies by quarter, But I would say we're still at 75%, 80% in the AMR and manual read versus AMI. But that does that can shift by quarter.
Speaker 2
Okay. Terrific. Thanks very much.
Speaker 0
Thanks, Ed. Brent Thielman, your line is open and please state your company name.
Speaker 3
D. A. Davidson. Good morning. Good morning, Brent.
I apologize, did get on the call late, but I had a question on Amble. Was your oil and gas business up this quarter there? And then does your outlook for the second half embed an expectation for that particular area?
Speaker 1
Yes. Our oil and gas was pretty flat on a year over year. We do expect to see a slight increase in the second half of the year. But our outlook for greater shipments for Anvil in the third quarter and second half a little driven a little more by actually commercial construction.
Speaker 3
Sure. Okay. And then on the metering business and expectations of reaching profitability in the second half, I'm presuming margins will still be sort of sub the legacy Eulerco products. But could you provide any color on I guess margins you're anticipating out of that business in the second half? And then how quickly you think they can ramp up to get to the levels of the traditional MuellerCo segment?
Speaker 1
Know, Brent, we've said I think several times that we think it's going to take probably at least three years for that business. So we do think it can get into Mueller coat margin. And the biggest driver of that will really be a much greater percentage of our revenues in AMI, because as we've talked in the past that not only with AMI do we generate revenue when we deploy the system, but then we generate ongoing revenue with software licensing fees. So AMI, we would expect, we'll have a much higher margin and when we get two, three years out, we would expect AMI to be a much bigger percentage of our overall revenues of this business. And when we get to that point, that's when we think that this business can generate margins similar to Mueller existing Mueller Co.
Speaker 3
Okay. I was just checking to see if that three outlook was changed, but congratulations on a great quarter.
Speaker 1
Thanks, Brent. Thank you.
Speaker 0
Our final question today comes from Sean Wondrack. Your line is open and please state your company name.
Speaker 4
Good morning guys. This is Sean Wondrack on for Phil Volpicelli, Deutsche Bank. Great and congratulations on reaching a four handle and your leverage. As I look at the business and I'm sorry to beat a dead horse here, but, when you look at margins in New York, do you think you could just give an order of magnitude, basically the difference between pricing and volume during the quarter? I realize you've hit on it a lot.
Speaker 1
If you look at our on an operating if you look at Mueller Co. From an operating income standpoint, of our $6.70 basis points year over year improvement, about 150 basis points came from pricing.
Speaker 4
Okay. Thank you. Then as I look at the business in your end markets, I know you guys had lost a lot of your exposure to residential construction through the downturn. I think something roughly, it went down almost 5%, from 40%. Could you just give an update on where you're at now between res and non res and municipal R and R terms of your end market?
Speaker 1
Sean, I will say that as we've said in the past that as most of our sales go through distributors that we have to go through a fair number of machinations to come up with to settle on a percent breakdown by end markets. So right now, I would say it's we just don't have all that data to be able to give you with any confidence where we think those are on a percentage basis. But clearly, at our Mueller business, we are seeing that becoming a bigger percent of their sales than what it had been. And as a result, it's becoming a bigger percent of our overall sales. At this point, difficult for me to give an exact number.
But certainly, again, we can say with confidence that it is a bigger percent today than it was a year ago.
Speaker 4
Okay. Thank you. And then just in terms of R and R versus new construction, with your large installed base out there, are you seeing R and R pickup at all?
Speaker 1
We are seeing as we said, we're seeing it spotty on municipal spending. But all in all, we do think that we are seeing some growth in from municipal spending. It's a I think that probably, I think you hit it pretty well there. I would say that we are certainly seeing our growth coming from maintenance and repair spending rather than what I will say CapEx is probably coming from more OpEx. And where we're seeing this is a greater percentage of our demand this year is coming from distribution pipeline projects rather than the larger transmission projects.
Generally, I think you put the larger transmission projects in the CapEx category, you put the smaller distribution lines in the OpEx. So we are seeing some, I think it's mixed across the country, but we think we are seeing some uptick, some growth in repair and maintenance spending.
Speaker 4
And do you think that this is being driven by just the terrible state of water infrastructure in this country that these municipalities are just at a point where they absolutely have to spend on it and that's why maybe you're seeing that happen?
Speaker 1
Yes, that certainly is our theory. We said in 2011, we saw it drop and it surprises. We saw it come back in 2012 just because we didn't think they could delay anymore. And I think what we're seeing in 2013 is the same. I wouldn't necessarily say that we're seeing utilities going on a preventative maintenance, any preventative maintenance campaigns.
But I do think that what we're seeing is just pure necessity.
Speaker 4
Okay. Thank you for that. And then, just quickly, I heard a lot about AMI and the metering side of the business. Can you talk a little bit about Ecologics and what's been going on with that and how demand has been?
Speaker 1
Yes. Ecologics is still a very, very small percent of our sales, but we are seeing a nice growth on small numbers that probably the that we announced several years ago, we got the biggest contract we had was in the City Of New Orleans. They have continued to renew that the last couple of years and recently renewed it for an additional year. And some of the pilots that we've had for the last couple of years are starting to turn into orders. So in a way, we're out there as missionaries talking about the benefits of acoustical leak detection and that takes some development time.
But even though it's still small numbers, we're seeing some nice growth in that business and hope to be able to announce some contracts soon.
Speaker 4
Okay, great. And then last question and then I'll hop off. But you mentioned capacity utilization at Moerco. Can you give us where you're at at Anvil this quarter versus last year?
Speaker 1
Yes. Anvil is still probably flat year over year around the 60% range.
Speaker 4
60%. And do you think that can increase meaningfully as you go on through the year? Do you think it'll just pick up like a few percentage points?
Speaker 1
I think I think it'll just pick up slightly. We don't really foresee it. When you look at the analyst forecast, certainly some of the indicators have been very positive or turning positive on non res construction. I don't think a lot of that has turned into actual field work, but certainly it looks like the foundation is there. I would think that looking at the current forecast for non res an increase in non res construction spending, we would see that more in our 2014 and maybe only a little uptick in 2013.
Speaker 4
Okay, great. Thanks a lot guys and good luck next quarter.
Speaker 1
Thank you.
Speaker 0
That does conclude the Q and A session of today's conference.
Speaker 1
Well, again, we certainly appreciate your interest in the company and the participation on this morning's call and look forward to seeing many of you in person and we'll be talking with you again next quarter.
Speaker 0
That does conclude today's presentation. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.