Mueller Water Products - Earnings Call - Q4 2013
October 30, 2013
Transcript
Speaker 0
Welcome and thank you all for holding. I would like to remind all parties that your lines are on a listen only mode until the question and answer session of today's conference. Also, this call is being recorded. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time. I will now turn the call over to Ms.
Marty Zakas. Ma'am, may begin.
Speaker 1
Very good. Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Mueller Water Products twenty thirteen fourth quarter conference call. We issued our press release reporting results of operations for the quarter and year ended September 3033 yesterday afternoon. A copy of it is available on our website muellerwaterproducts.com.
Mueller Water Products had 158,200,000.0 shares outstanding at September 3033. Discussing the fourth quarter's results this morning are Greg Highland, our Chairman, President and CEO and Evan Hart, our CFO. This morning's call is being recorded and webcast live on the Internet. We have also posted slides on our website to help illustrate the quarter's results as well as to address forward looking statements and our non GAAP disclosure requirements. At this time, please refer to slide two.
This slide identifies certain non GAAP financial measures referenced in our press release on our slides and on this call and discloses the reasons why we believe that these measures provide useful information to investors. Reconciliations between non GAAP and GAAP financial measures are included in the supplemental information within our press release and on our website. Slide three addresses our forward looking statements made on this call. This slide includes cautionary information identifying important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those included in forward looking statements as well as specific examples of forward looking statements. Please review slides two and three in their entirety.
During this call, all references to a specific year or quarter refer to our fiscal year, which as of September 30, unless specified otherwise. All operating results discussed in these prepared remarks are from continuing operations, unless specified otherwise. A replay of this morning's call will be available for thirty days after the call at +1 6045. The archived webcast and the corresponding slides will be available for at least ninety days in the Investor Relations section of our website. In addition, we will furnish a copy of our prepared remarks on Form eight ks later this morning.
After the prepared remarks, we will open the call to questions. I'll now turn the call over to Greg.
Speaker 2
Thanks, Marty, and thank you for joining us today as we discuss our results for the twenty thirteen fourth quarter and full year. I'll begin with a brief overview of the quarter followed by Evan's detailed financial report, which covers key drivers affecting our businesses. I will then provide additional comments on the quarter's results and developments in our end markets, as well as our outlook for the first quarter and for full year 2014. We are pleased with our overall fourth quarter results, particularly the 47% year over year increase in adjusted operating income and the 27% improvement in adjusted EBITDA. Mueller Company continues to benefit from improved operating leverage and the ongoing recovery of its end markets, especially residential construction in certain regions of the country.
Mueller Company continued to see growth in domestic shipments of valves, hydrants and brass products during the fourth quarter and this strong mix contributed to the segment's 40% year over year increase in adjusted operating income and the four thirty basis points improvement in adjusted operating margin to 15.8%. Domestic dollar shipments of valves, hydrants and brass products increased 13.7% during the quarter year over year. Anvil had a strong quarter with net sales up 8.8 and adjusted operating income up 30% year over year. 2013 was a year of strong performance for Mueller Water Products as evidenced by year over year net sales growth of 9.5% and adjusted operating income growth of 48%. Free cash flow generation of $78,500,000 an increase of $33,100,000 and a reduction of net debt leverage to three times.
Our 2013 performance reflects the ongoing operating improvements we have made over recent years as well as the benefits we have realized from improving end markets. I'll now turn the call over
Speaker 3
to Evan. Thanks, Greg, and good morning, everyone. I'll first review our fourth quarter consolidated financial results and then discuss segment performance. Net sales for the twenty thirteen fourth quarter of $293,200,000 increased $12,100,000 or 4.3% from the twenty twelve fourth quarter net sales of $281,100,000 due primarily to higher shipment volumes and higher prices. Gross profit improved 15.9% to $88,800,000 for the twenty thirteen fourth quarter compared to $76,600,000 for the twenty twelve fourth quarter.
Gross profit margin of 30.3% improved 300 basis points from 27.3% representing our best performance since the 2008. This improvement was driven primarily by higher shipment volumes and higher sales prices. Selling, general and administrative expenses as a percent of net sales declined to 18.9% for the twenty thirteen fourth quarter from 19.2% for the twenty twelve fourth quarter. Selling, general and administrative expenses were $55,400,000 for the twenty thirteen fourth quarter compared to $53,900,000 for the twenty twelve fourth quarter. Adjusted operating income for the twenty thirteen fourth quarter increased 48.7% to $33,400,000 from adjusted operating income of $22,700,000 for the twenty twelve fourth quarter.
This increase was driven primarily by higher shipment volumes and higher sales prices. Adjusted EBITDA for the twenty thirteen fourth quarter increased to 48,200,000 from $38,100,000 for the twenty twelve fourth quarter. 2013 adjusted EBITDA was $158,000,000 an improvement of $30,500,000 or 24% from a year ago. Interest expense net for the twenty thirteen fourth quarter declined 400,000 to $12,700,000 from $13,100,000 for the twenty twelve fourth quarter, excluding $700,000 of non cash costs for terminated interest rate swap contracts for the twenty twelve fourth quarter. This decrease was due to lower levels of total debt outstanding.
For 2013, interest expense declined $3,200,000 excluding terminated interest rate swap contracts of $5,000,000 in 2012. During the twenty thirteen fourth quarter, income tax expense was $3,700,000 on pretax income of $20,500,000 resulting in an effective income tax rate of 18%. The twenty thirteen fourth quarter expense was reduced by $4,400,000 related to a deferred tax asset valuation allowance adjustment. Excluding this adjustment, the effective tax rate for the twenty thirteen fourth quarter was 39.5%. Adjusted net income per diluted share for the twenty thirteen fourth quarter was $08 compared to adjusted net income per diluted share for the twenty twelve fourth quarter of $03 an improvement of $05 I'll now walk you through the after tax adjustments for both the 2013 and twenty twelve fourth quarters.
2013 diluted EPS from continuing operations of $0.10 was adjusted by the following items. Restructuring expenses of $100,000 offset by deferred tax asset valuation allowance adjustment benefit of $4,400,000 2012 diluted EPS from continuing operations of $03 was adjusted by the following items. Restructuring expenses of $500,000 and terminated interest rate swap contract costs of $400,000 There was a weighted average of 161,200,000.0 diluted shares of our common stock outstanding for the twenty thirteen fourth quarter compared to a weighted average of 158,500,000.0 diluted shares outstanding for the twenty twelve fourth quarter. I'll now move on to segment performance and begin with Mueller Company. Net sales for the twenty thirteen fourth quarter increased 2% to $191,000,000 from net sales of $187,200,000 for the twenty twelve fourth quarter.
This increase was due primarily to higher domestic shipment volumes of valves, hydrants and brass products, partially offset by lower shipments of metering products and shipments to Canada. Adjusted operating income for the twenty thirteen fourth quarter improved 40% to $30,100,000 from adjusted operating income of $21,500,000 for the twenty twelve fourth quarter. Adjusted operating margin for the twenty thirteen fourth quarter improved four thirty basis points to 15.8% from adjusted operating margin for the twenty twelve fourth quarter of 11.5%. We benefited from increased volumes and more specifically a richer mix of our valves, hydrants and brass products, higher sales prices and lower cost. Adjusted EBITDA for the twenty thirteen fourth quarter grew to $41,200,000 compared to adjusted EBITDA for the twenty twelve fourth quarter of $33,100,000 I'll now turn to Anvil.
Net sales for the twenty thirteen fourth quarter increased 8.8% to $102,200,000 compared to net sales of $93,900,000 for the twenty twelve fourth quarter. The increase resulted primarily from higher shipment volumes across most of our product lines. Adjusted operating income for the twenty thirteen fourth quarter improved 33% to 13,200,000.0 compared to adjusted operating income for the twenty twelve fourth quarter of $9,900,000 Anvil's adjusted operating margin for the twenty thirteen fourth quarter improved two ten basis points to 12.6% from 10.5% for the twenty twelve fourth quarter. Adjusted EBITDA for the twenty thirteen fourth quarter increased 22% to $16,500,000 compared to adjusted EBITDA for the twenty twelve fourth quarter of 13,500,000.0 Turning now to a discussion of our liquidity. Free cash flow, which is cash flows from operating activities less capital expenditures, was $58,700,000 for the twenty thirteen fourth quarter compared to $40,400,000 for the twenty twelve fourth quarter.
The increase was driven by both growth in operating income and improved working capital management. For the full year 2013, free cash flow was $78,500,000 compared to $45,400,000 in 2012. Additionally, we improved a measure of working capital efficiency by 110 basis points year over year as evaluated by trailing four quarter average accounts receivable, inventory and accounts payable as a percent of net sales. At September 3033, total debt was $600,800,000 down $22,000,000 from a year ago. Total debt outstanding included $420,000,000 of 7.5 senior subordinated notes due 2017, dollars 178,000,000 of 8.5% senior unsecured notes due $20.20 and $2,800,000 of other.
Net debt leverage declined to three times at September 3033 due to improved operating performance and free cash flow generation. Using September 3033 data, we had $159,400,000 of excess availability under our credit agreement. I'm also pleased to remind you that during the quarter, Moody's raised its corporate credit rating on Mule Water Products to B2 with a stable outlook from B3 with a positive outlook. I'll now turn the call back to Greg.
Speaker 2
Thanks, Evan. I'll now elaborate on our twenty thirteen fourth quarter and full year performance in end markets and provide an outlook for the first quarter and full year 2014. I'll begin with Mueller Company. We continued to see strong growth in domestic demand for our valves, hydrants and brass products. As I mentioned earlier, domestic dollar shipments for these products during the fourth quarter grew 13.7 year over year.
We believe this increase was driven primarily by residential construction growth, although we also saw some positive activity in municipal spending. Year over year sales of metering products declined in the fourth quarter, although going into the quarter, we had expected sales to increase modestly. First, orders from our largest meter customer declined year over year, which we believe was due to scheduling. Second, sales were lower than expected due to the timing of a major order. During the quarter, we received an order from Jackson, Mississippi for 65,000 units, the substantial majority of which was for our remote disconnect meter and for our two way AMI system.
This was the largest single order that Mueller Systems has received. We originally expected to receive this order earlier such that we could start shipping during the fourth quarter. Instead, given the timing of the order, we expect these units to begin shipping later during our 2014 and to continue throughout calendar twenty fourteen. Sales to Canada were down year over year as we saw a fall off in demand due to a market that remained soft. We were also negatively impacted by a weaker Canadian dollar.
While Mueller Company net sales during the quarter grew only 2% year over year, demand from our core domestic markets remained strong. Anvil also had a very good quarter. They saw a nice pickup in activity for their products with net sales growing just under 9%, which also benefited from higher prices. Adjusted operating income grew by 30% and adjusted operating margin expanded by two ten basis points to 12.6%. This is the highest margin Anvil has achieved since the 2009.
Now turning to what we expect to see for the full year 2014, I'll begin with Mueller Company. We expect continued growth in net sales at Mueller Company, driven primarily by the residential construction market. Housing starts are forecasted to grow between 2224% in calendar twenty fourteen from 2013. As you know, development of raw land for residential construction is the greatest driver of demand for our products. According to recent surveys by Ivy Zelman and Associates, growth in demand for land and lots has moderated slightly after recently hitting record highs, but growth remains robust.
The CPI for water and sewage maintenance increased around 6% for the last twelve months ended August 2013. Rising water rates are a significant source of funds for municipalities to drive capital projects. Water rate increases have far outpaced those of other utilities over the last several years. Overall, municipal bond financing was down through the first nine months of calendar twenty thirteen, primarily due to higher rates. However, while refinancing activity was down, new money issuance was up about 8%.
On the municipal budget front, state and local seasonally adjusted tax receipts continue to increase and hit new highs and municipalities overall are in a better fiscal shape than they have been over the last several years. All in all, based on discussions with our customers and distributors, we expect to see modest growth in demand for municipal repair and replacement projects in 2014. Overall, for the Mueller Company base business, which excludes our metering and leak detection products and services, we expect year over year net sales to increase over 2013 and to grow in the high single digits. We believe our metering business is stronger today than it was a year ago. For example, over the last two months, we were awarded three projects totaling approximately $30,000,000 These include orders for our meters and either our one way or two way AMI technology offerings.
Not only is our business stronger due to the increased volume, but also we believe due to a product mix more heavily weighted towards our higher technology products. We expect most of these meters to ship in the 2014 with a lesser amount scheduled for 2015. Of course, construction delays and other external factors could cause the timing of shipments to ship. While we expect nice year over year net sales growth in our metering products in 2014, growth is expected to be well below the roughly 50% year over year growth we realized in 2013. In total, for Mueller Company, 2014 net sales growth should be comparable to 2013 based on the current outlook for housing, continued growth in municipal spending and continued adoption of smart meter technology.
On the production side, we expect to continue to see the benefits of lean manufacturing and other productivity improvements. With increased production and shipment volumes, we should see benefits of stronger operating leverage resulting in year over year margin expansion. Material costs have been stable recently and we expect that average costs for 2014 will be slightly lower than in 2013 as we have seen a modest decline in prices during the year. As a result, we expect Mueller Company's adjusted operating income and adjusted operating income margin to improve over 2013. We also believe our metering and leak detection products and services will be profitable for 2014 weighted towards the second half of the year.
Now I'll turn to Anvil. We expect Anvil to see slightly higher shipment volumes in 2014. The Architectural Billing Index was above 50 for 11 of the last twelve months and any score above 50 suggests an increase in billings. In addition, most economic forecasts call for a modest growth in non residential construction spending. We have recently seen a slight increase in activity and believe this momentum will carry through 2014.
Spending in the oil and gas markets is expected to increase in response to expanding production. We expect the benefits of lean manufacturing and other productivity improvements at Anvil to at least offset inflationary increases in production costs. Overall, year over year net sales are expected to grow in the low to mid single digit range and adjusted operating income margins should expand slightly. Other 2014 key variables include corporate spending is expected to be $32,000,000 to $34,000,000 Depreciation and amortization is expected to be 57,000,000 to $60,000,000 and interest expense is expected to be about $51,000,000 based on our current debt outstanding. Our adjusted effective income tax rate is expected to be 37 to 40%.
Capital expenditures are expected to be $34,000,000 to $36,000,000 For 2014, we expect free cash flow to be stronger than in 2013, driven primarily by better operating results. Additionally, we expect cash income taxes to be minimal in 2014 as we continue to benefit from utilization of net operating loss carry forward. We also expect to make only minimal cash contributions to our pension plans in 2014. Turning now to our outlook for the first quarter. We expect Mueller Company's first quarter net sales to increase year over year in the high single digits.
We expect Mueller Company's adjusted operating income and adjusted operating income margin for the first quarter to improve year over year. Please note that Mueller Company's conversion margins are typically lowest in the first quarter due to the seasonality of our business and the reduced workdays that result from scheduled holiday plant shutdown. At Anvil, first quarter net sales should be modestly higher year over year. We believe Anvil will benefit from lower year over year per unit overhead costs. This coupled with an increase in volume should contribute to higher adjusted operating income and a higher adjusted operating income margin.
For Mueller Water Products as a whole, we believe first quarter net sales will increase year over year primarily due to volume increases at both Mueller Company and Anvil. We expect solid increases in adjusted operating income year over year and to see an improvement in our adjusted operating margin. As we reflect on 2013, we are pleased with net sales growth of 9.5%, conversion margin on net sales growth of almost 33% and improvement in adjusted net income per share to 18% sorry, 0.18 from $0.04 We also generated free cash flow of $78,500,000 and importantly reduced our net debt leverage to three times at September 3033 from 4.2 times at September 3032. We also improved our receivables, inventory and accounts payable as a percent of net sales by 110 basis points. Our focus on safety, lean manufacturing and operating efficiencies continue to yield positive results.
Most recently, our Elberville, Alabama hydro plant earned OSHA's prestigious Voluntary Protection Program, SAR status. This award recognizes work locations for their commitment to workplace safety. Elberville is one of only six foundries in The United States and the only one in the Southeast to currently hold star status. Net sales of our metering and leak detection products and services grew 55% year over year in 2013 and represented about 13% of Mueller Company's net sales. Their operating loss improved by about $8,000,000 Importantly, we continue to gain new customers.
We also developed and announced a number of new offerings including fixed leak detection products for both distribution and transmission pipelines, which we believe will provide our customers solutions to more efficiently manage their operations and prioritize capital spending. With that, I will open this call for your questions.
Speaker 0
Our first question comes from Kevin Masca. Your line is open and please state your company name.
Speaker 4
Thanks. Good morning. BB and T Capital Markets.
Speaker 3
Good morning, Kevin. Good morning.
Speaker 4
First, Greg, on the Mueller systems, I think I missed the last part of your comment there. Your expectation for 2014, you're not going to see the same 50% type growth again in 2014, But with the projects and the wins that you've recently had, are you still expecting that to be flat? Or are you still expecting double digit growth there? I missed that part of Yes. Your
Speaker 2
No, Kevin, we would still expect double digit growth. In fact, I know in our investor presentation, we believe we'd say over the next couple of years, we would expect to see a 20% year over year growth. So we're still comfortable in seeing at least a 20% year over year growth. What we expect to happen to this business over time is that we're selling fewer and fewer mechanical meters, more meters with AMI with the AMI either one way or two way system. So yes, we still expect to see year over year growth and I think we're comfortable with saying that we would expect to see at least 20% year over year growth.
But we'll have a much more favorable mix due to the we're selling more of our technology products.
Speaker 4
Got it. And do you have that comfort in the 20% this year in 2014 because of the recent wins that you've already got in your pocket? Or is it that plus the bidding is still quite active and you feel
Speaker 2
say it's certainly a combination of both. The recent wins certainly helps our backlog. And as we said, most of those are scheduled to ship in 2014. But I would say right now that we have still a pretty good funnel of quotations outstanding or projects that we would expect to quote in 2014 that we would hope to turn to orders and shipments. So it's a combination of both.
But I think with the activity and our wins for the last couple of months, it certainly solidifies our confidence of being able to deliver that 20% plus growth year over year.
Speaker 4
Got it. And can I just ask a question on Mueller Co? Margins, which were very strong in the quarter? It looks like for total segment revenue was up 4,000,000 but profit was up 9,000,000 And if I back out Mueller Systems, it seems like the incremental there was about 50%. Now I know you've got some products that you say can do 50% things like valves and hydrants, but that's not the normal mix or the normal trajectory for the whole segment.
Can you just talk about that? What other beyond pricing and volume that we know about, were there other productivity initiatives that really drove that better than we might have thought?
Speaker 2
Yes. And you hit the biggest, the primary contributing factor was the rich mix we had. Certainly our valves, hydrants and brass products, we're seeing nice conversion on brass products as we move to no lead brass that actually has been a boost to our margin. If you look at where those margins were historically. And those products our shipments grew about 40%.
And when we look at our valves and hydrants given the capacity utilization, some of our efficiency improvements, conversion margins for fourth quarter in for our valves and hydrants were just almost 60%. So again, we had very good performance at our plants and a very rich mix. We also benefited a little more too from you've heard us mention our focus on lead initiatives the last few years. And that we get many benefits on the cost side, working capital management and but also one of the benefits is that we are making our processes safer. And I think a good example of that is the VPP star that I mentioned in our prepared remarks recently awarded to Albertville location.
When you look at foundries, foundries are inherently dangerous, but I think as a result of our focus the last several years, we've seen a significant improvement in our safety results. And we also saw benefit in the fourth quarter on a very nice reduction in our workers' compensation costs. So I think that the primary driver was the rich mix, the increased capacity utilization especially in our valve and hydrant product area, but we did see some benefits from other side. And one of the ones that we specifically saw in the fourth quarter was lower worker workman's compensation costs and this all combined to contribute to a very strong conversion margin.
Speaker 4
Okay. So since you mentioned it, Greg, what was capacity utilization in Mueller Co. In Q4? And given everything you just said about the improvements made, should we thinking about Mueller Co. Ex Mueller Systems as kind of a 35% incremental margin on volume growth going forward?
Speaker 2
Yes. Kevin, I think that we are comfortable with having a lease on the Mueller base of at least a 35% conversion margin or possibly a little better. Our capital our capacity utilization rate for the fourth quarter were about for Mueller Co, we're about 70%. And actually, since you brought it up, talking about looking at our base business, if you look for our Mueller Co. Business in fiscal year twenty thirteen, so if we again subtract our metering and leak detection business, EBITDA margins for the full year were 22.5%.
So that we've said when we get to $1000000.1.0.2 dollars housing starts that we think that our base Mueller business to get back in the 25% range. We're very comfortable at given the capacity utilization we were this year and being able to generate EBITDA margins in that portion of our business at the 22.5. Now I don't want to be misleading on our conversion margins because that can vary by quarter. For instance, we pointed out in the first quarter, our first quarter is typically our lowest conversion margins because we will have plant shutdowns around the holiday. But when we look around the holidays, but when we look on average, I think that we're very comfortable with saying that that business should be able to achieve at least a minimum of 35% conversion margin.
Speaker 4
Okay, great. Congratulations on the quarter and the year.
Speaker 0
Thanks, Kevin. Our next question comes from Mike Wood. Your line is open and please state your company name.
Speaker 5
Hi, Macquarie Capital. Thank you. In your initial twenty fourteen comments, talked about comparable growth overall in the Mueller co base business. So you also mentioned some strength in residential. I'm curious kind of what you think at the current 900,000 plus housing starts, the appropriate infrastructure spend from Mueller standpoint would be on your products next year and how that compares to where you are now?
I mean, basically, seems like you're implying some growth in residential, but not necessarily that large an acceleration in the resi growth.
Speaker 2
Mike, thanks. I will say that we are very positive and I would say approaching bullish for what we think housing starts will mean for us next year. I will say the one piece of data that we're missing certainly is that on housing starts this year, how much new or raw land needed to be developed to support that housing start number. We believe that certainly that excess inventory of developed land that existed has been effectively worked through in most regions of the country. So we do believe that future demand for lot development will be somewhat commensurate with the need for housing starts.
But I would say that that is the lack of data at least for us, we're unable to get that data. So that I would say colors a little bit affects a little bit our expectations for next year, because we do think there may be some parts, some regions of The U. S. That may still have excess developed lots. But certainly as I said that we are much more bullish.
We believe that a lot of that excess developed lot a lot of excess developed lots were absorbed this year. And I'd say that maybe our outlook has just a bit of caution until we can get a lot more comfortable as to how much raw developed land needs to be or how much raw land needs to be developed to support the housing start increase.
Speaker 5
That's fair. Also I'd love your view in terms of the impact from interest rate increases on how it impacts the water utility customers that you serve from a municipality standpoint, the project ROEs or how demand could fluctuate based on interest rate sensitivities?
Speaker 2
Yes. I think that we certainly think that some projects could be impacted by the higher rates that they would have to pay in the bond market. Though again, I think on a micro level basis, our discussion with our customers and with our distributors indicate that the it certainly support our expectation that we will see continued growth in municipal spending on repair and replacement. We referenced of course the continued increase in water rates and that's a major source of funding for water utilities. But the growth could be somewhat muted if we see the continued growth in interest rates because there's no question that there are projects that are financed by our utilities going to the bond market.
Great.
Speaker 5
And finally, can you just give us the for the quarter the Mueller Systems Ecologic sales number or drag on margins, so we can figure out what the base business contributed?
Speaker 2
Yes. If you look at we think that the overall drag on margins for Mueller Co. Were about 400 basis points.
Speaker 4
Thank you.
Speaker 5
Thanks, Mike. Next we
Speaker 0
have Michael Gogler. Your line is open and please state your company name.
Speaker 2
Green Capital. Good morning, everyone. Good morning, Michael. Good morning. Congrats on the quarter.
We lot of my questions already been answered, but one I wanted to ask and I hope it's not too early to ask this question, but I'm wondering what you're thinking Greg on raw material costs and more specifically price increases for next year? Yes. Mike, we look at raw material costs, we think that they certainly have been stable. And when we look all in all and we think in 2014, we may be able to see a little bit of a decrease in our overall material costs. That being said, we continue to see increases in other areas.
We certainly see an increase in freight continues to freight continues to increase, our medical costs continue to increase and so on. So you're right, it's a little premature for us to make a decision or be able to announce exactly what we're going to do with pricing. But we take all those factors into account and we'll probably be making a decision sometime here in the next couple of months and as to what we think we need to do with pricing. I'd say that we think raw materials will be less, but we do expect to see other costs increasing. All right.
Thanks. Thanks, Michael.
Speaker 0
Next we have Seth Weber. Your line is open and please state your company name.
Speaker 6
Hey, good morning. It's RBC. I
Speaker 4
guess first I
Speaker 6
just wanted to clarify that I heard something correctly. Are you saying that the growth rate for the overall Mueller Co. In twenty fourteen fiscal twenty fourteen will be similar to the growth rate for Mueller Cove in 2013. Was that correct?
Speaker 2
Yes. That's why I think we've said that the overall growth rate will be the same, though the different segments of the business will grow a little differently. We said that we don't expect to see the same kind of growth rate that we saw in Mueller Systems and we know that we expect the Mueller based business to grow greater than what it did in 2013. And but it all sums up to we think about growth rates that are similar.
Speaker 6
So something in the overall like a low double digit growth rate. Is that the right way to think about it?
Speaker 2
We said high single digit. So it approaching I think that that high single digit, maybe low double digit in total.
Speaker 6
Okay, great. Thank you. I wanted to focus on the free cash flow, very strong generation in the quarter and the year. Now you're talking about 2014 actually being better than 2013. Can you give us some color what you're planning to do with the free cash flow?
What kind of opportunities you see out there? And if whether it's organic growth or acquisitions or doing something with the capital structure, any hints there?
Speaker 2
Yes. Thanks Seth. And I know we've had the opportunity to discuss this at a number of our investor conferences. I think we've discussed it in previous calls that when we look at our excess cash, our flexibility is somewhat limited when we look in terms of debt retirement, share repurchase or dividend because as long as our 8.5% notes are outstanding, we are limited by those indentures. And just remind everyone they're not at a predetermined price until September 2015.
You look, we do have a restricted payments basket of about $65,000,000 which can be used to repurchase the 7.5 notes. We can use some of that for share repurchases or dividend payments. But obviously other potential uses of free cash flows could include acquisitions. But right now there is not a specific that I can say here for the next twelve months here specifically where our excess cash or the cash we're generating will go. But our Board does continually monitor our cash position and evaluate the capital structure.
We are looking at we've always said if we get our debt leverage down to three times or below three times then we would be a I think have our eyes a little more open to look at potential acquisitions. So clearly, think that given where our debt leverage is, the cash that we have, it does give us some opportunities though in some areas as I just mentioned, we are our flexibility is somewhat limited.
Speaker 6
Okay. I mean, it's a nice change of pace relative to where you've come from. The just going back to the Systems and Ecologics business, do you feel like that you're fully staffed? I know you've based some investments there to bring up sales staff and whatnot, but do you feel like with these additional revenues coming in that you really should start to see the profitability in that business? I know you talked about sort of second half weighted, but are there incremental expenses that you think could delay that?
Or do you feel like you're at where you need to be at
Speaker 3
this point for that business?
Speaker 2
I think from a resources from a resource standpoint, I think we're staffed adequately. In fact, that probably hit us a little bit this quarter because of the we had resources more than what we needed, but in anticipation of these orders coming in. I would say that, yes, we should start seeing a much nicer conversion because of the higher volume and also the richer mix because it's more heavily weighted to the AMR or AMI technology. We're moving away from the mechanical meters. If I were to say any area where we may still have some additional incremental spending, it could be in R and D.
As we mentioned several times that in earlier this year, we've introduced fixed leak detection for both transmission and distribution pipelines. We think that this technology has a great future. But obviously whenever in a pilot situation, we may learn some things about the technology that needs some tweaking and may need some continued research and development. So we may have some expenses there. But I think all in all relative from staffing in our plants, from our sales organization and the rest of our resources needed to support the level of activity, I think we're pretty much where we need to be and we don't see the need to add a lot of costs.
Speaker 6
Terrific. Thank you very much guys.
Speaker 2
Thanks. Thanks, Seth.
Speaker 0
Jerry Revich, your line is open and please state your company name.
Speaker 7
Hi, good morning. It's Goldman Sachs.
Speaker 2
Good morning, Jerry. Good morning.
Speaker 7
I'm wondering if you could talk about the extent of raw material tailwind you saw in Mueller Co. And Anvil in the quarter and also just calibrate us on your realized pricing that you delivered in the quarter at Buehlerco?
Speaker 2
Yes. Jerry, I would say when we look at raw materials on a consolidated basis between the two businesses. We had a little bit of help, but not a significant amount. We may have on a year over year basis certainly less maybe twenty, thirty basis points, so not a lot. We did have a more of, I'd say, if you want to call it a tailwind from pricing.
We saw both in Mueller and Anvil, we had higher year over year pricing.
Speaker 3
Yeah. And Jerry for Mueller Company in particular pricing accounted for about 125 basis points or 35% of the margin improvement. And just as a reminder, we announced the last price increase on valves and hydrants back in January 2013.
Speaker 7
Okay, perfect. Thank you for the context. And Greg, you mentioned that there are going to be some costs that are inflationary for you in 2014 to 2013. Can you just flesh that out a bit more? Guess most of us are of the impression that raw material part of the cost structure is really much more significant.
I'm wondering if you just flesh that out for us and the magnitude of cost increases from the other areas we should be thinking about?
Speaker 3
Go ahead, Evan. Go Yes. As we've said, if you look at raw material costs and purchase components, as a percent of cost of goods sold, that's in general around the 50% mark of cost. And so that's certainly the most significant component. When we look at other cost increases, as Greg mentioned, freight, we look at medical cost and other costs that go up.
Some of those will be offset by the cost savings programs that we have, our lean initiatives and those activities. So on net basis, some of the cost savings will neutralize those increased costs. But if you look at the entire cost structure for both Mueller Co. And Anvil, 50% raw material purchase components and as we said before about 15% labor and the rest depreciation, amortization and other costs.
Speaker 7
Okay. Thank you. And just broadly, you spoke about your expectations for the way residential plays out and flows through your business. Can you just talk about what non res project bid activity is like and broader inquiry levels just for the non res portion of your business?
Speaker 2
Sure, Jerry. As we said that we saw an increase in activity, a slight increase in activity in the fourth quarter. We expect that to continue in 2014. I think that when we look at overall, as we said overall, Anvil revenues up maybe in the mid single digits on a percentage basis. I think that that may be reflective of what we see in non res construction spending.
Certainly, we referenced the ABI index being about 50 over 11 over the last twelve months. That would certainly imply that as those architects plans go into development that we should start seeing an uptick in 2014. So I think that we feel comfortable right now expecting a modest increase in non res construction spending. And I think the recent activity that we have seen sort of supports that view.
Speaker 7
Okay. Thank you very much.
Speaker 2
Thanks, Brett. Thank you.
Speaker 0
Brent Thielman, your line is open and please state your company name.
Speaker 8
Hi, good morning. D. A. Davidson.
Speaker 2
Good morning, Brent. Morning.
Speaker 8
Just a few follow-up questions. Greg, how much of a headwind was Canada this quarter? And are you seeing any inflection there or does that persist based on your expectations for 2020?
Speaker 2
Yes. If you look at Brent, our revenues, our sales were down somewhere between 3,000,000 to $4,000,000 on a year over year basis to Canada. A little bit of that was FX. But I think we're seeing the market has been soft for the last couple of quarters there. We've seen a drop off in residential construction.
And I would just say municipal spending has been pretty spotty. So when we look 2014, I think we may we believe we may see a little more activity in 2014. So we think that may be more weighted to the second half of our fiscal year 2014. But all in all, think the Canada just seems to be bumping along first.
Speaker 8
Okay. And then on the tech division, mentioned some of the recent orders. Could you comment on backlog and where it
Speaker 4
sits today versus a year ago?
Speaker 2
Yes. If you look at our backlog, our backlog is up probably around $15,000,000 where we stand where we are here today, probably about $15,000,000 higher than what we were a year ago.
Speaker 8
Got it. Okay. And then are you seeing any changes in timeline from quotation to utilities to the order actually being awarded within that division?
Speaker 2
We are. We are seeing it being pushed out because I think utilities are utilities are thinking more and more about AMI. And I think that AMI is the consideration of AMI and their analysis of the business case for AMI is taking a much, much longer. In fact, the order that if you go back to 2013, when we kept saying that our belief based on our current outlook that Mueller systems would be profitable by the end of the year, We expect that this order that we announced for Jackson, Mississippi that we just received in September, we were probably expecting we were expecting to receive that four or five months ago. So I think that that's indicative of maybe a little bit of the complexity around AMI in the business case and we are seeing it taking longer and it's impacting a little bit our ability to forecast because we expect in order to be placed at a certain time and we're seeing three, four months, they're being extended by three or four months to make that decision.
Speaker 8
Okay. And then you mentioned capacity utilization at Mueller Co. For at 70%. Did you provide for Anvil?
Speaker 2
Anvil is still running probably around 65%.
Speaker 8
And any benefit to the margins from mix there or is it really just the volume growth?
Speaker 2
I would say it was more volume growth and then we did have we did benefit some from higher pricing.
Speaker 8
Okay. Thanks guys.
Speaker 2
Thanks, Brent.
Speaker 0
Philip Volpottelli, your line is open. Excuse me, Walt Lipsett, your line is open and please state your company name.
Speaker 4
Hi, thanks. Global Hunter. Good morning guys and nice quarter. Most of my questions have already been asked. But I wonder I've got two of them.
One, maybe I'll go with the quickest one first. For 2014, I think you said corporate expenses of 32,000,000 to $34,000,000 Yes. And this year you did 34,000,000 I wonder if you could just talk about why it's looking like a reduction and what the bonus comp metric might look like for 2014?
Speaker 2
Sure. I'll ask Kevin to address that. When you look at
Speaker 3
corporate expenses on a year over year basis for fiscal twenty thirteen compared to fiscal twenty twelve, they were just a bit higher there and that was primarily related to stock compensation mostly related to the increase in stock price. And then when we look at 2014, we're always continually evaluating corporate expenses and managing those. And so we're providing that general range of 32,000,000 to $34,000,000 So I think overall 2014 compared to 2013, they'll be similar in same range, but there could be some efficiencies that we gained during the year.
Speaker 4
Okay, good. And on the conversion margin, I wonder if you could just the margin conversion has been impressive and I just want to make sure that I caught all the numbers that you're talking about for overall and for the two segments?
Speaker 2
Well, yes, when you look at our conversion margins, as I was mentioning a little earlier, if you look at our Mueller business this quarter, we were approaching about 60% for valves and hydrants and had a very rich valves and hydrant mix. And generally, when you start getting probably into the fourth quarter, we would expect to see those this quarter to be our highest conversion margins because we're getting the benefit of increased production in the third quarter in overhead absorption and some of that may roll into the fourth quarter, plus the increased production in the fourth quarter that we really have strong, as I said, strong overhead absorption that reduces our overhead cost per unit. And with the mix. So we were at about 60% conversion margins on valves and hydrants overall Mueller. And then if we look at Anvil, Anvil had a nice increase on pricing on a year over year basis, had a nice volume mix.
So conversion margins there were
Speaker 3
Yes, conversion margins in Anvil were right around roughly 35%. But what we've said on a long term basis that the anvil conversion margins would be in the 25% neighborhood and then overall for Mueller Company around 35%. But as Greg mentioned our valves and hydrous in particular could be in the 50% plus range.
Speaker 4
Okay, good. And with that said, is there do the numbers work that at some point with revenue going higher and leveraging facility costs and all the other manufacturing costs that you get better leverage than that 35%, I guess, as capacity utilization goes up?
Speaker 2
Yes. Would Walter, would think it will come in steps because at some point we're not quite as efficient when you for instance when you need to add an additional shift. So we're seeing volume going up. But when you add that additional shift, there may not be enough work to keep that shift fully utilized. So you get some inefficiencies there.
But all in all, we would think that as our capacity utilization goes up, our overhead cost per unit should come down and should obviously drop to the bottom line.
Speaker 4
Okay, great. Okay, thanks guys. Thanks, Thanks,
Speaker 0
Philip Bopicelli, your line is open and please state your company name.
Speaker 5
It's Phil Boppicelli from Deutsche Bank. Congrats on a good quarter. Question is in regards to the restricted payments basket. Think for several quarters now you've mentioned $65,000,000 but I believe that there's a 50% net income builder.
I'm wondering if the reason you keep mentioning 65,000,000 is because the net losses you incurred during the downturn, you're still trying to offset those with the net income or at what point does that flip to being a positive contributor to that restricted payments basket?
Speaker 3
No, that's correct. The general basket is $65,000,000 and through the downturn you're correct that the losses did build up and so we're in a negative position on the adder basket. But over time as we generate positive net income and we move out depending upon those projections then that will be an additional add to the basket.
Speaker 5
Are you close to that flip point or are you still far away from that?
Speaker 3
I would say that there is still a ways to go when you look at the overall complexion of the basket.
Speaker 5
Great. And then in the second quarter you mentioned that residential construction was about 5% of the total revenue and at peak it was 30% to 35%. Where are we now?
Speaker 2
When we look at residential construction, it's primarily at our Mueller Company business. So we were running, we look at fiscal year twenty twelve when we were coming into 2013, we were running probably a little south of the 10%. And today at Mueller Co, we're a little probably a little north of the 10%. So I think it's a little more accurate as we talk about it here looking at it in terms of Mueller Co. So we round these numbers off, so we don't imply a lever a level of precision we don't have.
We're taking the best information that we have from our distributors and where it's going. If you look at fiscal year twenty twelve, probably we're a little bit under 5% for if you look at total Mueller Water products. And today, I would say we're somewhere between 510% in total. Great.
Speaker 5
Thank you. And then last one for me. There have been some articles about leak detection in oil and gas pipelines. Is that something that you guys can address with your technology products? Not as we stand not as
Speaker 2
it stands today because it's a different medium and all of our algorithms are based on water as the medium. And it would take a lot of work for us to be able to have these work in be able to work in oil and gas. And I'm not sure how long it would take for us to get there. And we think there's so much opportunity on the water side, of course, that's what we're focusing. So yes, I would that our technology is and our algorithms, as I said, are fine tuned to water and would not be applicable the way they are today to the oil or gas market.
Great.
Speaker 5
Thank you. Thank you.
Speaker 0
David Rose, your line is open and please state your company name.
Speaker 5
Wedbush Securities. I wanted to follow-up on some of the operating leverage questions. In the quarter you mentioned that there is a benefit in the workers' comp or your workers' comp was lower than expected. Was this a one time reversal of an accrual for workers' comp or is this something ongoing?
Speaker 3
Workers' comp is evaluated an actuarial evaluation is done every year and then there are true ups from that evaluation. So it's based upon the entire portfolio of workers' comp cases and projections. So there are adjustments periodically. This particular year, we did see a larger adjustment in Q4.
Speaker 5
Okay. And can you quantify that a little bit? Is it something meaningful or is it just kind of a modest improvement?
Speaker 3
I would say in general the benefit to the Mueller Company business in the quarter was somewhere in the around $1,700,000 in that general range.
Speaker 5
Okay. And then the ongoing rate will be lower, so you'll still see a recurring benefit. Is that fair?
Speaker 3
Slight. Certainly, as I mentioned that evaluation there, there are many factors come into play and sometimes they appear like adjustments, but and the base can adjust a little bit, but there's also other forward looking factors that come into play there. So I wouldn't say that it would be a total resetting to that magnitude, but could be a slight benefit as we go forward. Certainly over the long term based upon all of the actions that we've taken in the safety area, we continue to expect to see improvement in overall cost as we move down the road in subsequent years.
Speaker 5
Okay. Then as a follow-up to some of your lean initiatives and I appreciate that it is a journey, but are there any specific actions to kind of highlight that should drive earnings or margins for next year?
Speaker 2
I would say it's more in general. Our focus has been on velocity and reducing our delivery lead times. We've mentioned in the past that our distributors they continue to manage their inventories closer and they're continuing to rely on us to deliver the product quicker. So I think that we're certainly seeing some advantages on the cost side, but where I think we're seeing even more of the advantage is that our delivery cycle times are down that allow us to meet demand by carrying less inventory and sometimes even demand a higher price for that quicker delivery. So it'd be difficult for me to point to any one or two specific areas.
And I think you described it best, it's a journey and it impacts the I just think our overall processes.
Speaker 5
Okay, great. Thank you. And then the last question if I may is on leak detection. You've talked about expanding this internationally outside of North America. Can you update us on the progress and potential for acquisitions on that front as well?
Speaker 2
Yes. We're still talking small numbers, but we've seen very, very nice growth in Australia. We made an investment in that market and we saw our business more than double there in fiscal year twenty thirteen. But again, that is we're still talking very small numbers. And I would say that if we look at the acquisition, we still think that there's more and more opportunity as we build our capability to address these markets.
And I would say that that would be an area that would get our attention if we saw an acquisition opportunity to increase our presence in international markets on the leak detection side. But there's nothing specific that we're looking at right now.
Speaker 5
Okay, great. Thank you very much.
Speaker 2
Thank That
Speaker 0
was our final question. So I'll turn the call back over to Mr. Hyland for closing remarks.
Speaker 2
Well, again, we are as I said earlier, we are pleased with the performance in 2013 as we benefited clearly from improving markets, but also with some of the improvements that we've made in our overall businesses and processes. We are as we sit here today looking at our markets that we are encouraged by what we expect to see is continued growth in the housing market, which will be the biggest driver of demand for our growth. And again, the most advancement and orders that we've been able to win on our metering side puts us in a stronger position today. So we are looking forward to 2014 and certainly appreciate your interest in the business.
Speaker 0
That does conclude today's presentation.