NS
NATURES SUNSHINE PRODUCTS INC (NATR)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 delivered solid top-line growth and margin progress: revenue $113.2M (+2% reported, +5% cc), gross margin 72.1% (+90 bps YoY), and adjusted EBITDA $11.0M (+20% YoY) .
- Clear beat vs S&P Global consensus: revenue $113.2M vs $109.3M*, EPS $0.25 vs $0.165*, with two estimates on both metrics; adjusted EBITDA outperformed consensus EBITDA $9.75M* though definitions differ (company reports adjusted EBITDA) .
- Asia and Europe remained growth engines (Asia +10% cc; Europe +9% cc), while North America showed early stabilization; digital sales rose 19% YoY and Subscribe & Thrive represented ~26% of sales (≈45% of DTC) .
- Guidance maintained: FY25 net sales $445–$470M and adjusted EBITDA $38–$44M, with SG&A targeted at $40–$42M per quarter and gross margin flat-to-modestly higher; management cited tariff uncertainty and FX as key watch items .
- Capital allocation upsized: Board authorized up to $25M additional share repurchases (on top of $8.3M remaining); balance sheet remains net-cash with $86.5M cash and zero debt, a potential catalyst for buyback acceleration .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Asia and Europe strength: APAC +10% cc (Taiwan +18% cc, Japan +24% cc), Europe +9% cc; strategic focus on high-velocity “Power Line” products and field activation drove growth .
- Margin execution: gross margin expanded to 72.1% (+90 bps YoY) on pricing and savings; operating income up to $6.2M (5.4% of sales) .
- Digital momentum: North America digital sales +19% YoY; Subscribe & Thrive at ~26% of total sales and ~45% of DTC, supporting customer activation and retention .
What Went Wrong
- North America still down YoY (-4%), reflecting a difficult comp and consumer sentiment; volume incentives rose to 30.8% of sales (mix/promotions), modestly pressuring contribution margin .
- Tariff and FX headwinds persist; management increased inventories (raw and finished goods) to mitigate risk, raising inventory to $64.9M (+$5.5M vs YE’24), which can weigh on working capital efficiency near term .
- Macro conservatism embedded in guidance (FX headwind ~$5M; gross margin flat-to-modestly higher); implies cautious trajectory despite Q1 beat momentum .
Financial Results
Consolidated Performance (oldest → newest)
Q1 2025 Actual vs S&P Global Consensus
Notes: Consensus counts: Revenue (2*), EPS (2*). Company reports adjusted EBITDA; S&P Global “EBITDA” consensus may not be directly comparable to Adjusted EBITDA.
Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
Segment Net Sales – Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024
KPIs and Balance Sheet
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO: “First quarter revenue came in at $113 million, up 5% on a constant currency basis, and adjusted EBITDA came in at $11 million, up 20% versus prior year.”
- CEO: “Exceptional growth… in Asia and Europe… early signs of stabilization in North America and continued improvements to gross margin.”
- CFO: “Gross margin increased 90 basis points to 72.1%… SG&A decreased to 35.8%… Adjusted EBITDA… increased 20% to $11 million.”
- CFO: “We are reiterating our previous guidance… net sales $445–$470M… adjusted EBITDA $38–$44M… quarterly SG&A $40–$42M… gross margin flat to modestly higher.”
Q&A Highlights
- Guidance philosophy: Midpoint assumes persistent macro/tariff instability; lower bound implies recession-like conditions; upper bound reflects continuation of Q1 strength .
- Tariff preparedness: Mitigation via inventory, supplier contracts, and finished goods positioning; environment remains fluid; conservative stance reiterated .
- Digital toolkit rollout: Still on track for 2H’25; incremental toolset for practitioners/retailers with AI-backed CRM and marketing; no disruption expected .
- Regional outlook: APAC and Europe fundamentals remain robust; APAC comps tough in 2H; growth tied to new customers and orders, viewed as sustainable .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025 S&P Global consensus vs actual: revenue $109.3M* vs $113.2M, EPS $0.165* vs $0.25, EBITDA $9.75M* vs $11.0M (company adjusted EBITDA). Two estimates on revenue and EPS.
Values retrieved from S&P Global*. Actuals per the company’s press release/8-K .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Beat and raise potential: Strong Q1 beat on revenue and EPS with margin expansion; guidance maintained but conservative—any tariff relief or FX abatement could drive upside and estimate revisions .
- Regional mix improves quality: APAC/Europe growth offsets NA softness; mix and cc momentum support gross margin resilience despite incentive mix .
- Digital flywheel building: 19% NA digital growth and Subscribe & Thrive penetration (~26% total; ~45% DTC) indicate durable customer engagement; AI toolkit in 2H’25 could accelerate activation .
- Margin/cost discipline: SG&A tightly managed at 35.8% of sales; operating leverage visible with YoY EBIT/EBITDA growth; watch incentive rates and FX for variability .
- Capital returns: $25M incremental buyback authorization with net-cash balance sheet ($86.5M cash, no debt) positions NATR to buy opportunistically—supportive for shares on weakness .
- Risk monitor: Tariff trajectory and retaliatory regimes remain the main wildcards; inventory build provides buffer but elevates working capital—track cash conversion in Q2/Q3 .
- Near-term trading setup: Positive beat, margin trends, and buyback authorization are catalysts; stock likely sensitive to tariff headlines and NA demand stabilization commentary into Q2 .
Additional Press Releases (Q1 2025)
- 2024 Impact Report: Progress toward 2025 ESG goals (TRUE Zero Waste Gold, emissions and waste reductions, 100% renewable energy in manufacturing) .