NCNO Q1 2026: Sees Tough Comps Slowing H2 Subscription Growth
- Sustained customer demand and a robust sales pipeline: Executives highlighted consistently strong pipeline activity and customer engagement across banking segments, reflecting solid underlying demand for nCino’s solutions [index: 7][index: 17].
- Innovative AI integration and rapid deployment capabilities: The company is leveraging AI to shorten implementation timelines (targeting improvements of up to 200 hours), enhance product features (e.g., banking adviser capabilities and Sandbox Banking integration), and drive operational efficiencies, positioning nCino favorably against competitors [index: 21][index: 29].
- Targeted expansion in the credit union market: With over 800 credit union customers already using its portfolio analytics solution and dedicated leadership with industry-specific expertise, nCino is well-poised to capture significant growth opportunities in this underpenetrated segment [index: 28].
- Decelerating subscription revenue growth: Management acknowledged that the second half of the year is expected to have difficult comps, raising concerns that subscription revenue growth may decelerate further compared to the first quarter.
- Persistent margin pressures in professional services: Q&A discussions highlighted ongoing cost and pricing pressures in the community bank space that are impacting professional services gross margins, with improvement relying on uncertain efficiency gains from new AI initiatives.
- Reliance on acquisitions for growth: The integration of recent acquisitions (FullCircl, DocFox, Allegro, Sandbox Banking) is critical to sustaining international and consumer lending growth, which introduces execution risks if expected synergies or market momentum do not materialize.
Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
---|---|---|
Total Revenue | +12% (from $128.09M in Q1 2025 to $144.1M in Q1 2026) | The revenue growth was driven by an expansion in the subscription revenue segment, building on prior period gains and additional market penetration. This reflects a continued trend from previous periods where increased customer adoption and potentially new customer wins contributed to higher recurring revenue. |
Subscription Revenues | +13% (from $110.41M in Q1 2025 to $125.6M in Q1 2026) | Subscription revenue growth was fueled by both increased adoption from existing customers and new customer contributions. This builds on last period’s momentum where factors such as expanding seat activations, improved retention, and strategic acquisitions enhanced recurring revenue. |
Professional Services & Other Revenues | ~+4.6% (from $17.68M in Q1 2025 to $18.5M in Q1 2026) | The modest increase in services revenue indicates a gradual expansion in non-subscription offerings. This slow growth is consistent with previous periods where the focus largely shifted toward subscription models, although some additional revenue was achieved through increased implementation & training engagements. |
Operating Cash | – (maintained strong levels at $54.32M in Q1 2026 despite a net loss of $5.56M) | Even with a reported net loss, strong operating cash generation underscored improved working capital management and non-cash adjustments. This represents a continued trend where operating cash flow benefits from lower net losses and efficient cash conversion processes compared to prior periods. |
Cash and Cash Equivalents | Increased (to $133.23M in Q1 2026) | The rise in cash and cash equivalents reflects accumulated positive operating cash flows and disciplined liquidity management. Building on previous periods, improved cash inflows from operations combined with strategic financing and reduced outflows helped strengthen the liquidity position. |
Total Assets | Increased (to $1,650.94M in Q1 2026) | The higher total assets are attributable to both organic growth and prior strategic investments, including acquisitions that boosted goodwill and intangibles. This trend, evident from previous year expansions, signifies ongoing asset base expansion to support the company's growth initiatives. |
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Total Revenues ($USD Millions) | Q2 2026 | no prior guidance | $142 to $144 | no prior guidance |
Subscription Revenues ($USD Millions) | Q2 2026 | no prior guidance | $124.5 to $126.5 | no prior guidance |
Non-GAAP Operating Income ($USD Millions) | Q2 2026 | no prior guidance | $23.5 to $24.5 | no prior guidance |
Non-GAAP Net Income per Share ($USD) | Q2 2026 | no prior guidance | $0.13 to $0.14 | no prior guidance |
Interest Expense ($USD Millions) | Q2 2026 | no prior guidance | Approximately $4 | no prior guidance |
Weighted Average Diluted Shares Outstanding (Millions) | Q2 2026 | no prior guidance | Approximately 119 (before share repurchases) | no prior guidance |
Metric | Period | Guidance | Actual | Performance |
---|---|---|---|---|
Total Revenue | Q1 2026 | $138.75 to $140.75 | $144.1 | Surpassed |
Subscription Revenue | Q1 2026 | $121.75 to $123.75 | $125.6 | Surpassed |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
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Sustained Customer Demand and Sales Pipeline | Previous calls (Q2–Q4 2025) consistently highlighted sustained customer demand and robust sales pipeline activity, with strong execution in U.S., international and mortgage segments despite market challenges ( , , ). | In Q1 2026, executives continued to emphasize sustained customer demand across onboarding, loan origination, and other solutions. There was notable positive sentiment in the pipeline, with increased inbound interest in AI solutions as a leading indicator of future growth ( , , ). | Consistent strength in customer demand and pipeline growth with an enhanced focus on AI support, reflecting continued optimism and strategic refinement. |
AI Integration and Product Innovation | Across Q2–Q4 2025 calls, nCino detailed incremental advances in AI integration and new product capabilities (Banking Advisor, omnichannel experiences, integration of acquired products such as DocFox and FullCircl). Executives stressed the strategic importance of AI in driving efficiency and subscription revenue growth ( , , – ). | In Q1 2026, the focus on AI integration remained strong. New banking adviser capabilities and numerous enhancements at the nSight conference were highlighted. The leadership underscored leveraging their process-centric data set to drive future subscription revenue and operational efficiency ( , , ). | Sustained and expanding commitment to embedding AI; the approach has evolved to include more tools and capabilities driving a positive sentiment on innovation. |
Market Expansion and International Growth | Previous periods (Q2–Q4 2025) noted active efforts in expanding into new geographies with a dedicated credit union go-to-market team, successful wins in regions such as Spain, the Nordics, and Japan, and incremental acquisitions to boost consumer lending and serviceable addressable market ( , , , ). | In Q1 2026, market expansion efforts continued with strong focus on the credit union market (e.g. an $800 million credit union deal) and international wins (significant add-on deals and momentum in both Europe and Japan). Pipelines in consumer and mortgage lending also remained strong, bolstered by product innovations ( , ). | Consistent strategic focus with incremental successes; while challenges persist in some geographies, leadership’s targeted approach (e.g. credit unions) shows improved momentum. |
Decelerating Subscription Revenue Growth | In Q2–Q4 2025 calls, executives discussed headwinds such as onetime revenue items, FX impacts, and challenges in the mortgage and international segments which contributed to lower subscription growth. The guidance described a lag effect from gross bookings and elevated churn ( , , ). | In Q1 2026, the slowdown was acknowledged as resulting from difficult year‐over‐year comparisons in the second half of the prior year. While Q1 execution was praised, the deceleration in subscription revenue growth remained a noted theme, without any new revenue model challenges emerging ( , ). | Recurring concern: Short‐term deceleration continues amid tough comparisons, though management remains confident about eventual reacceleration in subsequent periods. |
Reliance on and Integration of Acquisitions (M&A) | Throughout Q2–Q4 2025, acquisitions such as DocFox, FullCircl, Allegro, and Sandbox Banking were discussed. Executives highlighted cross‐sell opportunities, revenue synergies, and integration challenges—acknowledging integration costs and temporary operational impacts while emphasizing the strategic role of M&A in expanding the SAM ( , , , , , ). | In Q1 2026, leadership continued to underscore the successful integration of key acquisitions with a positive outlook. Specific references were made to ongoing integration efforts across DocFox, FullCircl, Allegro, and Sandbox Banking, reinforcing that these acquisitions remain central to driving growth ( ). | Steady integration strategy: Consistent emphasis on leveraging past acquisitions to boost growth with ongoing risk management, signaling stable confidence in the M&A strategy. |
Management and Leadership Succession Uncertainty | In Q3 2025, Pierre Naude addressed retirement speculation, emphasizing a focus on well‐planned succession; Q4 2025 introduced Sean Desmond as the new CEO with strong credentials, reducing concerns. Q2 2025 included no discussion on these issues ( ). | Q1 2026 did not discuss management or leadership succession uncertainty, suggesting that prior concerns have been effectively addressed and that the leadership transition is now stable ( ). | Reduced uncertainty: Earlier succession concerns have been resolved through clear leadership messaging and transition, leading to a more stable management outlook. |
Non-Commercial Products Pipeline Growth | Q2 and Q3 2025 emphasized a strong non-commercial pipeline with over 50% of bookings coming from non-commercial products, reflecting maturation in consumer lending and deposit account opening solutions ( , , , ). | Q1 2026 reaffirmed that the pipeline for non-commercial products is in a healthy mix, with sustained interest in AI-driven enhancements like Banking Advisor, thereby supporting robust pipeline activity ( , ). | Persistent and solid growth: Non-commercial offerings continue to achieve traction and expand their share of the pipeline, with consistently positive momentum. |
Platform Pricing Transition and Revenue Recognition Challenges | Discussions in Q2 and Q4 2025 and Q3 2025 focused on transitioning from a seat-based to an asset/volume-based pricing model. Executives highlighted customer preference for the streamlined framework and noted short-term revenue recognition adjustments and unbilled AR issues while expecting long-term improvements ( , , , , , ). | In Q1 2026, while there was no explicit focus on the pricing transition, the revenue recognition adjustments were noted as routine, indicating that challenges from the pricing shift remain under control without emerging new issues ( ). | Ongoing transition: The structured shift to platform pricing continues to evolve successfully, with revenue recognition challenges remaining managed and progressively improving over time. |
Mortgage Business Performance, Churn, and Interest Rate Sensitivity | Prior periods (Q2–Q4 2025) showed mixed performance: Q2 had modest growth with forecasted improvements from interest rate cuts; Q3 reported strong subscription revenue growth with manageable churn yet higher mortgage churn due to M&A; Q4 indicated 8% growth with cautious guidance amid interest rate uncertainties ( , , , ). | In Q1 2026, the mortgage segment was supported by robust customer commitments (e.g. a $25 billion bank deal), improved churn compared to Q4, and stable performance despite some rate volatility, suggesting a modest improvement over the previous quarter ( , , ). | Gradual improvement: While interest rate sensitivity remains a challenge, the mortgage business shows signs of stabilization and lower churn, reflecting incremental progress despite persistent external pressures. |
Gross and Net Bookings Growth Trends and Execution Risks | Q2–Q4 2025 earnings calls detailed healthy gross bookings growth (with notable multi-solution deals in Q3 and strong ACV gains in Q4) but also flagged execution risks related to international markets and mortgage volatility. Emphasis was on meeting bookings targets and managing seasonality and pricing transition challenges ( , , , , , ). | In Q1 2026, while explicit detailed discussions on gross/net bookings were minimal, the company maintained focus on growing ACV (guiding an addition of $48–$51 million on constant currency) and improving execution efficiencies through pipeline activity and reduced sales cycle friction ( , ). | Positive momentum persists: Bookings trends remain favorable, though execution risks (notably in international and mortgage segments) continue to be managed with a focus on operational improvements. |
Margin Pressures in Professional Services | In Q2 2025, challenges were noted with customer sensitivity to consulting rates, while Q4 2025 cited the positive impact of Sandbox Banking on reducing implementation timelines. Q3 2025 did not specifically address margin pressures; overall, there was an ongoing challenge with professional services margins ( , ). | Q1 2026 addressed margin pressures by highlighting initiatives such as product redesign for faster implementations and the leverage of AI tools to boost efficiency and margins. Management expects these steps to gradually alleviate service cost pressures ( ). | Active mitigation efforts: Margin pressures remain a concern, but initiatives like AI utilization and product redesign signal a proactive approach toward improving professional services margins over time. |
Slowing Organic Growth | In Q4 2025, discussions centered on external headwinds (FX, mortgage, one-time revenues, churn) that led to lower subscription growth, with conservative guidance for fiscal 2026. Q3 2025 also reflected cautious organic growth expectations due to mortgage rate volatility. Q2 2025 indirectly acknowledged challenges via segment-specific issues ( , , , ). | In Q1 2026, organic growth deceleration was acknowledged as a result of stark year-over-year comparisons in the latter half of the prior year, though Q1 performance was solid. There was no new headwind reported, maintaining the previous cautious outlook ( ). | Persistent headwinds: The slowdown in organic growth is a recurring theme with short-term caution prevailing, but management expects an eventual rebound, signaling a cautious yet optimistic long-term view. |
De-emphasis of Key European Markets (Germany and France) | In Q2 2025, Pierre Naude explicitly stated that nCino would deemphasize Germany and France in favor of markets like Spain, leveraging familiarity and greater TAM in those regions. Q4 2025 also pointed to a focused expansion in Mainland Europe, particularly Spain and the Nordics, supported by new leadership in Madrid ( ). | Q1 2026 did not mention any further de-emphasis of Germany and France, implying that the strategic shift introduced earlier remains in place and is being absorbed into the broader international growth narrative ( in Q4 remains the basis). | Continuation of the strategy: The earlier decision to de-emphasize Germany and France remains implicit, with focus sustained on markets like Spain and the Nordics, reflecting a consistent reallocation of resources toward higher-potential regions. |
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Subscription Revenue
Q: Why is subscription revenue decelerating?
A: Management noted that while Q1 was strong, they expect difficult comps in the second half of fiscal '26, so the deceleration largely reflects a tougher base going forward, with cautious optimism for '27. -
Cost Savings Impact
Q: How do cost savings affect margins?
A: They expect roughly $18 million in gross annualized expense savings—with about $5 million flowing through immediately—to improve profitability later this year. -
Sales Productivity
Q: What drives sales capacity and ACV?
A: Sales capacity grew by 14% year-over-year, and despite workforce reductions, new hires are expected to ramp over roughly 6 months, supporting steady ACV growth. -
Competitive Advantage
Q: How is vertical AI a competitive edge?
A: nCino leverages process-centric data and tailored workflows to deliver unique, role-based AI insights, setting it apart from horizontal vendors. -
Deployment Friction
Q: What hampers customer implementation?
A: Friction stems from legacy, highly configurable systems that required lengthy, consultative projects; the firm is now streamlining deployments to cut down on these delays. -
International Growth
Q: What’s driving strong international results?
A: Robust performance overseas, partly driven by the FullCircl acquisition, underscores optimism in EMEA and Japan markets. -
Office Efficiency
Q: How have office and capacity optimizations progressed?
A: The company has consolidated its facilities—retaining essential space at its Wilmington headquarters while right-sizing global offices—to better align costs with operational needs. -
Consumer Lending Momentum
Q: How is consumer lending performing?
A: A healthy pipeline and recent deals indicate that as the new credit union team reaches full stride, consumer lending will continue to gain traction. -
Revenue Recognition
Q: What drove the revenue reallocation?
A: Adjustments were made by evaluating stand-alone selling prices between subscription and services, a routine measure that doesn’t introduce ongoing impacts.