NE
NEXTERA ENERGY INC (NEE)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Adjusted EPS of $0.99 grew ~9% YoY and modestly beat consensus, while GAAP EPS fell to $0.40 on hedging and investment effects; revenue of $6.25B missed consensus, with strong FPL offset by Corporate & Other . EPS estimate: $0.9784* vs actual $0.99; revenue estimate: $6.631B* vs actual $6.247B. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- FPL delivered robust results: net income $1.316B (+12% YoY), 894 MW solar placed in service (owned/operated solar now >7.9 GW), regulatory capital employed +8.1% YoY; NEER added ~3.2 GW to backlog (~28 GW total) and adjusted earnings rose to $908M .
- Guidance unchanged: 2025 adjusted EPS $3.45–$3.70, 2026: $3.63–$4.00, 2027: $3.85–$4.32; dividend growth targeted ~10% annually through at least 2026. Quarterly dividend set at $0.5665 (10% YoY increase) .
- Tariff risk management and supply chain positioning are key narratives: tariff exposure ~$150M on ~$75B expected capex (<0.2%) with contractual protections and potential pass-through to customers; domestic battery sourcing reduces exposure; ~$37B interest rate hedges in place, with hedged risk-free rate ~3.9% .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- FPL growth and execution: net income $1.316B (+12% YoY), regulatory capital employed +8.1% YoY, placed 894 MW of new cost-effective solar (owned/operated solar now >7.9 GW) .
- NEER origination strength: ~3.2 GW of renewables and storage added to backlog (~28 GW total), adjusted earnings up to $908M .
- Management confidence and positioning: “We will be disappointed if we are not able to deliver financial results at or near the top of our adjusted EPS expectations ranges in each year through 2027” — John Ketchum . Strong hedging program (~$37B) and domestic battery contracting to mitigate tariffs .
What Went Wrong
- Revenue miss vs Street and GAAP EPS compression: revenue $6.25B vs $6.63B* est.; GAAP EPS fell to $0.40 (from $1.10 YoY) on non-qualifying hedges and investment impacts, despite adjusted EPS $0.99 . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Corporate & Other drag: GAAP loss of $(0.32) per share and adjusted loss $(0.09) per share, driven by hedges and interest expense allocation .
- Ongoing regulatory process risk: FPL’s four-year rate plan proposal (2026–2029) requires PSC approval; typical residential bills projected to rise ~2.5% annually through 2029 (still below national average), adding execution and timing risk .
Financial Results
Note: Asterisked values retrieved from S&P Global.
Segment breakdown
Selected KPIs
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Adjusted earnings per share increased by nearly 9% year-over year – the direct result of continued solid financial and operational performance at both our businesses... we will be disappointed if we are not able to deliver financial results at or near the top of our adjusted EPS expectations ranges in each year through 2027” — John Ketchum .
- “We should be thinking about renewables and battery storage as a critical bridge... Today, renewables and battery storage are the lowest cost form of power generation... and we can build these projects and get new electrons on the grid in 12 to 18 months.” — John Ketchum .
- “Our tariff exposure on batteries is expected to be negligible... we entered into a domestic contract... substantial credit backstops.” — John Ketchum .
- “We think tariff exposure is ~$150 million on ~$75 billion of expected capex... less than 0.2%... and we have trade measure protection provisions in our customer contracts to reduce it potentially to zero.” — John Ketchum .
Q&A Highlights
- Tariffs and supplier health: Management emphasized strong supplier incentives, contractual credit protections, and buying power ensuring commitments; battery sourcing domestically minimizes exposure .
- Transferability of tax credits: Discussed legislative drafting nuances and contingency to utilize tax equity; reinforced that credits and transferability are “hand in glove” for project economics .
- Returns/competitiveness post-tariffs: Positioning viewed as a competitive advantage versus smaller developers lacking risk-shifting leverage, potentially driving incremental demand to NEER .
- Duane Arnold (nuclear restart): Engineering and contracting opportunities progressing; no showstoppers identified .
- FPL rate case process: Settlement possible, typically occurs near technical hearings; expected ROE ~11.6% for the year under normal weather .
Estimates Context
Note: Asterisked consensus values retrieved from S&P Global. EPS/revenue actuals from company filings.
Implications:
- Q1 2025 EPS modest beat; revenue miss suggests mix effects and hedging/investment items impacting GAAP figures. Adjusted EPS growth supports unchanged multi-year guidance .
- Street likely to modestly lift EPS near term for FPL strength but may trim revenue assumptions or Corporate drag given hedging/investment impacts .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- FPL’s execution is a core earnings driver: sustained capex, solar deployment, and superior cost position underpin multi-year EPS guidance and prospective rate plan approval .
- NEER origination momentum remains intact with backlog growth and diversified supply chain; tariff exposure appears immaterial and potentially fully mitigated via contracts .
- Hedging and capital markets readiness (~$37B interest rate hedges; 3.9% hedged risk-free rate) reduce financing volatility, supportive for large capex programs .
- Dividend growth visibility (~10% through at least 2026) and recent $0.5665 quarterly dividend reinforce income profile amid growth investments .
- Watch PSC rate case milestones (hearings, potential settlement window around August) as catalysts for bill trajectory certainty and allowed returns .
- Hyperscaler/front-of-meter solutions with paired renewables + gas offer incremental growth optionality; multi-technology positioning helps address AI/data center load .
- Near-term trading: focus on rate case headlines, tariff policy developments, and origination updates as narrative drivers; medium-term thesis hinges on FPL rate construct, NEER backlog conversion, and execution against unchanged EPS guidance ranges .
Non-GAAP note: Adjusted earnings exclude effects of non-qualifying hedges; XPLR Infrastructure net investment gains; unrealized gains/losses on equity securities in NEER nuclear decommissioning funds; and OTTI, among others, per company definition and reconciliations attached to news releases .