NEXTERA ENERGY INC (NEE)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q4 2024 adjusted EPS was $0.53 and GAAP EPS was $0.58; full-year adjusted EPS grew ~8.2% YoY to $3.43, at the high end of guidance .
• Operating revenue fell sequentially to $5.385B in Q4 (from $7.567B in Q3 and $6.069B in Q2), while consolidated net income attributable to NEE was $1.203B; NEER posted a GAAP loss but higher adjusted earnings .
• Management reaffirmed 2025–2027 adjusted EPS ranges and a ~10% annual dividend growth through at least 2026; FPL outlined a 2026–2027 base-rate proposal and an ROE midpoint of 11.9% (±1%) .
• Catalysts: robust renewables/storage origination (another record year adding >12 GW; backlog >25 GW), a new GE joint framework for gas generation, and progress toward potential Duane Arnold nuclear recommissioning .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Record origination momentum: NEER added >12 GW of renewables/storage in 2024, lifting backlog to >25 GW; >6 GW placed into service over the last four quarters .
• FPL execution and growth: regulatory capital employed grew ~10% YoY; Q4 capex ~$1.8B and full-year ~$8.2B; bills ~40% below U.S. average with top-decile reliability .
• Management confidence and forward plan: “We will be disappointed if we are not able to deliver financial results at or near the top of our adjusted EPS expectations ranges in each year through 2027” — John Ketchum .

What Went Wrong

• NEER GAAP volatility: Q4 GAAP net loss at NEER of $442MM (–$0.21 EPS) driven by equity-method losses and mark-to-market/hedge dynamics; adjusted NEER EPS rose YoY to $0.22 .
• Sequential revenue and margin compression: consolidated operating revenue declined to $5.385B in Q4 from $7.567B in Q3; operating margin compressed to ~17.5% in Q4 vs ~37.7% in Q3 .
• Estimates comparison unavailable: SPGI consensus (EPS, revenue) could not be retrieved due to request limits, limiting quantitative beat/miss analysis (see Estimates Context).

Financial Results

Sequential Comparison (Consolidated)

Year-over-Year (Q4)

Segment Operating Revenues

Segment Net Income (Q4 2024)

Estimates vs Actuals (Q4 2024)

KPIs and Drivers

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “NEE delivered full-year adjusted EPS of $3.43, up over 8%, once again at the high end of our adjusted EPS expectations range… we will be disappointed if we are not able to deliver financial results at or near the top of our adjusted EPS expectations ranges in each year through 2027” — John Ketchum .
• “Over the next 4 years alone, we plan to invest roughly $120 billion across the country which would allow us to grow our combined fleet to roughly 121 gigawatts” — John Ketchum .
• “We announced framework agreement with GE… a 50-50 JV to build natural gas power generation solutions… pairing low-cost renewables for energy with gas-fired generation for capacity” — John Ketchum .
• “We are continuing to make progress in evaluating the recommissioning of our Duane Arnold nuclear plant in Iowa… file[d] notice with NRC to request licensing change” — John Ketchum .
• “FPL plans to propose an ROE midpoint at 11.9%, with an allowed ROE band of plus or minus 1%” — Brian Bolster .

Q&A Highlights

• Gas JV structure: 50-50 co-ownership with GE; focus on long-term contracted assets, with potential build-transfer in integrated deals (renewables + gas) .
• Policy/IRA: Management emphasized urgent need for electrons and “all-of-the-above” generation; highlighted jobs/economic benefits and bipartisan footprint of investment/demand .
• Duane Arnold: NRC licensing change filed; plant condition solid; cost details withheld given active customer negotiations .
• Interest-rate hedging: ~$28.5B in hedges; EPS sensitivity to +50 bps shift is ~$0.01–$0.03 in 2025–2026 and ~$0.03–$0.05 in 2027; later noted ~$32B swaps at ~3.9% coupon .
• Hyperscalers: Growing openness to pairing renewables (for energy) with gas (for capacity); behind-the-meter gas is discussed for mega-scale sites but grid remains key .

Estimates Context

• SPGI S&P Global consensus (EPS, revenue) for Q4 2024 was unavailable due to request-limit errors; therefore, we cannot quantify beat/miss versus Wall Street consensus at this time. The absence of consensus limits near-term revision analysis and automated surprise classification.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• FPL’s proposed multi-year rate structure (2026–2029) and ROE midpoint at 11.9% support continued capital deployment and balance-sheet strength, underpinning long-term EPS visibility .
• NEER remains the renewables/storage scale leader with >12 GW 2024 origination and >25 GW backlog; expect continued backlog conversion into service and earnings growth .
• The GE gas-generation framework helps NEE offer integrated energy/capacity solutions, aligning with hyperscaler/manufacturing demand; timing for large gas contributions is more likely post-2030 in many regions due to permitting/equipment constraints .
• Interest-rate exposure is well hedged with manageable EPS sensitivity; operating cash flow growth targeted at or above adjusted EPS CAGR through 2027 .
• FPL customer and load growth in Florida remain tailwinds; Q4 retail sales +1.1% YoY and robust customer additions imply constructive volume dynamics into the next rate cycle .
• Nuclear recommissioning (Duane Arnold) could add medium-term optionality; near-term growth remains centered on renewables/storage .
• With consensus data unavailable, focus near-term on qualitative catalysts: reaffirmed guidance, regulatory progress, origination momentum, and integrated solutions narrative; these are likely to shape stock reaction pending formal rate-case milestones and backlog conversion .

Notes on Non-GAAP Adjustments

Adjusted EPS excludes non-qualifying hedges, XPLR investment gains, unrealized gains/losses on equity securities in NEER’s nuclear decommissioning funds, differential membership interests, gain on disposal, and impairments; management believes adjusted earnings better reflect fundamental earning power .