Executive Summary

Adjusted EPS rose 14% YoY to $1.66 as regulated segments benefited from recent rate outcomes and E&P hedges offset weak spot prices; GAAP EPS was $0.49 due to a $141.8M pre-tax ceiling-test impairment in E&P (−$1.14/sh after tax) .
Management raised FY25 adjusted EPS guidance to $6.50–$7.00 (from $5.50–$6.00) on higher NYMEX assumptions ($3.50 for the remaining 9 months), stronger EDA well performance, and higher production (410–425 Bcfe) while trimming E&P capex midpoint by $5M .
Regulated momentum: Pipeline & Storage net income +35% YoY on settled rates; Utility +22% YoY on New York rate case approval (with make‑whole back to Oct 1), underpinning 7–10% EPS growth visibility over three years .
Potential stock catalysts: material guidance raise, improved gas macro and basis, EDA capital efficiency/production uplift, and optionality around data-center/power demand; buybacks totaled ~$99–100M to date under the $200M authorization .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Regulated earnings inflected: Pipeline & Storage net income +$8.4M YoY (13% revenue uplift from Feb 2024 rate case), Utility net income +$5.9M YoY on NY PSC settlement with make‑whole; consolidated adjusted EPS +14% .
- Strong EDA execution: sequential E&P production +6% vs Q4; realized price after hedging rose to $2.53/Mcf with $29.7M hedge gains; LOE stayed flat at $0.67/Mcf as efficiencies offset lower pre‑hedge pricing .
- Guidance raised across EPS, production, and Gathering revenue; E&P DD&A reduced; E&P capex midpoint trimmed $5M on efficiencies—confidence in 7–10% multi‑year EPS CAGR reiterated .
What Went Wrong
- GAAP results impacted by non‑cash ceiling‑test impairment ($141.8M pre‑tax; $104.6M after‑tax), depressing GAAP EPS to $0.49 despite solid operations .
- Gathering net income −$1.7M YoY on lower Seneca throughput and higher DD&A; early‑quarter selective curtailments (~1 Bcf) still needed amidst in‑basin price weakness .
- Higher consolidated interest expense and pipeline integrity/labor O&M pressures persisted (though largely contemplated in outlook), and Utility interest expense +$2.3M YoY .

Financial Results

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Total Operating Revenues ($USD Thousands)	$417,442	$372,068	$549,482
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$(0.59)	$(1.84)	$0.49
Adjusted EPS ($)	$0.99	$0.77	$1.66
Operating Income ($USD Thousands)	$(51,440)	$(196,570)	$86,191
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Thousands)	$262,710	$230,710	$337,363

Segment performance (GAAP earnings and Adjusted EBITDA):

Segment	Q1 2024 GAAP Earnings ($000)	Q1 2025 GAAP Earnings ($000)	Q1 2024 Adj. EBITDA ($000)	Q1 2025 Adj. EBITDA ($000)
Exploration & Production	$52,483	$(46,777)	$159,970	$156,645
Pipeline & Storage	$24,055	$32,454	$59,142	$70,953
Gathering	$28,825	$27,145	$53,061	$51,936
Utility	$26,551	$32,499	$53,366	$60,665

Operating KPIs:

KPI	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
E&P Production (Bcf)	96.5	91.9	97.7
Realized Gas Price after Hedges ($/Mcf)	$2.28	$2.40	$2.53
LOE ($/Mcf)	$0.69	$0.74	$0.67
G&A ($/Mcf)	$0.19	$0.20	$0.20
DD&A ($/Mcf)	$0.71	$0.69	$0.65
Pipeline Throughput (MMcf, total)	168,628	166,821	202,944
Gathering Volume (MMcf)	118,445	112,856	120,961
Utility Throughput (MMcf, total)	22,312	13,545	38,536

Segment drivers (Q1 2025 vs. Q1 2024): Pipeline & Storage revenue +13% on settled rates; Utility customer margin +$9.1M and other income +$4.0M reflecting NY settlement; E&P hedging +$29.7M offset lower pre‑hedge realizations .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Consolidated Adjusted EPS	FY 2025	$5.50–$6.00	$6.50–$7.00	Raised
NYMEX Gas Assumption	Remaining 9 months FY25	$2.80/MMBtu	$3.50/MMBtu	Raised
Appalachian Spot Assumption	Remaining 9 months FY25	$2.00/MMBtu	$2.90/MMBtu	Raised
Realized Gas (after hedges)	FY 2025 ($/Mcf)	$2.47–$2.51	$2.77–$2.81	Raised
E&P Production	FY 2025 (Bcf)	400–420	410–425	Raised
E&P DD&A	FY 2025 ($/Mcf)	$0.65–$0.69	$0.63–$0.67	Lowered
E&P LOE	FY 2025 ($/Mcf)	$0.68–$0.70	$0.68–$0.70	Maintained
E&P G&A	FY 2025 ($/Mcf)	$0.18–$0.19	$0.18–$0.19	Maintained
Gathering Segment Revenues	FY 2025 ($MM)	$245–$255	$250–$260	Raised
Pipeline & Storage Revenues	FY 2025 ($MM)	$415–$435	$415–$435	Maintained
E&P Capex	FY 2025 ($MM)	$495–$525	$495–$515	Lowered
Consolidated Capex	FY 2025 ($MM)	$885–$970	$885–$960	Lowered (midpoint)
Effective Tax Rate	FY 2025	~24.5–25%	~25%	Slightly Higher

Sensitivity (remaining 9 months FY25): $3.00 NYMEX → $6.15–$6.65; $3.50 → $6.50–$7.00; $4.00 → $6.90–$7.40 .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q3 2024 (Prior-2)	Q4 2024 (Prior-1)	Q1 2025 (Current)	Trend
Gas macro/hedging	Expect near-term pressure, constructive LT (LNG, power); ~60% FY25 hedged with rising floors	Lowered FY25 guide on $2.80 NYMEX but strong hedge book; sensitivity provided	Raised FY25 on $3.50 NYMEX; basis tighter; hedge mitigates volatility	Improving macro, tighter basis
Regulated rate cases	Anticipated NY PSC approval; Supply Corp case benefits	NY settlement filed; make‑whole expected; Supply Corp rate uplift	NY PSC approved; make‑whole booked; Utility +~30% FY25 earnings expected	Regulatory visibility up
EDA capital efficiency	Best‑in‑class breakevens, costs down, production up	Efficiencies lowering DD&A; plan flexibility	EUR uplift; production guide raised; capex trimmed	Positive execution
Pipeline growth	Tioga Pathway FERC EA timing; NA exit decision	Tioga on track; Northern Access impairment/exit	Tioga progressing; Empire rate‑settlement extension talks	Project pipeline advancing
Data centers & AI	Growing LT demand noted	—	Active discussions; integrated solutions positioning	Emerging optionality
Capital returns	Dividend increase; buyback underway	Buyback progress; balance sheet capacity	~$100M repurchased; consider extension post‑completion	Ongoing

Management Commentary

CEO: “Fiscal 2025 is off to a great start… regulated segments delivering… confidence in our 7% to 10% earnings growth projections over the next three years… EDA continues to exceed expectations… rising price outlook… rising free cash flow” .
CFO: “We now expect adjusted operating results to be in a range of $6.50 to $7 per share… assumes NYMEX $3.50… basis forecast tighter… Utility earnings up ~30% in fiscal 2025” .
Seneca/Midstream President: “We are revising production guidance upward to 410–425 Bcfe… lowering the high end of capital to $495–$515M… nearly 90% of remaining FY25 production safeguarded by firm transportation/sales” .

Notable quotes:

“Our integrated upstream and gathering operations in the Eastern Development Area continue to exceed expectations… drive capital efficiency improvements” .
“As a multiyear agreement, [NY settlement] gives us great visibility to continued earnings growth… delivery rates will still be amongst the lowest in the state” .
“At the current NYMEX strip… we expect significant free cash flow in our nonregulated businesses, potentially upwards of $1 billion over the next 3 years” .

Q&A Highlights

Data center opportunity: Early-stage but active discussions “across the value chain”; NFG can offer pipeline capacity plus long-term supply and potentially partner with power developers for integrated solutions .
Production vs capex/egress: Raised production guidance reflects “outstanding” well results/flow rates, not a shift in activity; growth remains matched to firm transport; $50MM/d new egress secured for future .
Capital returns: ~$100M repurchased with ~$100M authorization remaining; will weigh extending buyback vs dividend/debt as free cash flow builds .
M&A: Preference to scale regulated assets; open to smaller E&P bolt‑ons .
Northern Access: No near‑term revival; project rights-of-way exist, restart would take time .

Estimates Context

Wall Street consensus from S&P Global (EPS, revenue, EBITDA for Q1 FY2025) was unavailable due to access limits during retrieval. As a result, we cannot present vs-consensus beats/misses for this quarter at this time (estimates via S&P Global were not retrievable).

Key Takeaways for Investors

The quarter was operationally strong with adjusted EPS +14% YoY and a broad‑based contribution from regulated segments and EDA-driven efficiencies; GAAP was clouded by a non‑cash impairment tied to trailing pricing .
Material guidance raise (EPS, production, realized prices) plus tighter basis and reduced DD&A meaningfully improve FY25 earnings visibility and free cash flow trajectory .
Regulated outlook is de‑risked: NY PSC settlement (with make‑whole), PA DISC, and Supply Corp rates underpin 7–10% EPS growth in regulated businesses over the next three years .
EDA continues to deliver best‑in‑class capital efficiency and productivity, enabling higher output with flat-to-lower per‑unit costs and steady LOE .
Optionality: data center/power demand growth could further tighten gas markets; NFG’s integrated footprint (wellhead-to-burnertip) positions it to capture such opportunities .
Capital returns remain active (dividend and buyback); balance sheet and hedge book provide flexibility around debt maturities and potential buyback extension later in FY25 .
Watch items: in‑basin price volatility/curtailment risk (partly mitigated by firm sales/hedges), O&M inflation (integrity, labor), and timing/execution of Tioga Pathway and Empire settlement extension .

Appendix: Additional Context

Consolidated Q1 details: Revenues $549.5M; Operating Income $86.2M; Net Income $45.0M; Diluted EPS $0.49; Adjusted EPS $1.66 .
Utility rate case impact: New York settlement approved Dec 19, 2024—ROE 9.7% on 48% equity; revenue requirement increase $57.3M/$73.1M/$85.8M over FY25–FY27; make‑whole allows recovery from Oct 1, 2024 .
Share repurchases: $34M in Q1; cumulative $99M (1.7M shares) under $200M authorization .

All data sourced from company filings and earnings materials as cited.

NATIONAL FUEL GAS CO (NFG)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary