Executive Summary

Q3 FY25 was strong operationally with GAAP and adjusted EPS of $1.64 (vs. $0.99 adj. in 3Q24; +66%), powered by record E&P production (112 Bcf, +16% YoY), higher realized prices, and lower per‑unit costs . Versus S&P Global consensus, EPS beat by ~$0.10 while revenue missed by ~$60M (see Estimates Context) *.
Management narrowed FY25 adjusted EPS guidance to $6.80–$6.95 (slightly lower midpoint on a reduced 4Q NYMEX assumption), and initiated FY26 preliminary EPS of $8.00–$8.50 at $4.00 NYMEX (+~20% YoY midpoint), with sensitivity to $6.35–$6.85 at $3.00 and $9.75–$10.25 at $5.00 .
Midstream expansion advanced: FERC approval for Tioga Pathway (190 Mdth/d; early FY27 in‑service) and the Shippingport Lateral (205 Mdth/d precedent agreement; 4Q26 in‑service), together expected to add “north of $30M” annual pipeline revenue when online .
Capital return: dividend was raised 4% to $2.14 annualized (55th consecutive increase); buybacks (~2M shares at $59.70 average since Mar-24) were paused this quarter to preserve balance sheet flexibility for growth opportunities . Free cash flow proxy (“net cash from ops less net cash used in investing”) was $196M in the quarter .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

E&P outperformance: Record quarterly production (112 Bcf; +16% YoY) with lower LOE ($0.66/Mcf), lower DD&A ($0.62/Mcf), and higher realized price ($2.71/Mcf after hedges), lifting adjusted E&P operating results by $52.9M YoY and adjusted EBITDA to $202.5M . CEO: “Our integrated upstream and gathering operations saw record production and throughput…and a continued improvement in capital efficiency” .
Visible growth from expansions: FERC approved Tioga Pathway; Shippingport Lateral announced with a precedent agreement; combined revenue uplift projected at >$30M annually upon completion . CEO: “Speed to market is critical…we should be able to build [Shippingport] on an expedited basis” .
Regulated tailwinds: Utility GAAP earnings nearly doubled (+95% YoY) on NY rate settlement and colder weather; customer margin +$8.4M; gathering revenue rose with throughput from Tioga pads .

What Went Wrong

Revenue shortfall vs. sell-side: Q3 revenue of $531.8M was below S&P Global consensus (~$592M) despite EPS beat (see table) *.
Pipeline & Storage O&M pressure: Segment GAAP earnings were down $1.8M YoY on higher O&M costs tied to personnel/contractors inflation .
Guidance fine‑tune: FY25 EPS range narrowed and midpoint edged lower on a reduced Q4 NYMEX assumption to $3.25, partly offset by higher production and lower unit costs; FY26 guidance implies higher DD&A as rates normalize toward ~$0.70/Mcf F&D cost .

Financial Results

Consolidated results (oldest → newest)

Metric	Q1 FY25 (Dec 31)	Q2 FY25 (Mar 31)	Q3 FY25 (Jun 30)
Revenue ($M)	$549.5	$729.9	$531.8
Operating Income ($M)	$86.2	$317.3	$230.3
Net Income ($M)	$45.0	$216.4	$149.8
Diluted EPS ($)	$0.49	$2.37	$1.64
Total Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$337.4	$428.5	$346.7

Actual vs. S&P Global consensus

Metric	Q2 FY25	Q3 FY25
EPS – Actual	$2.39	$1.64
EPS – Consensus	$2.21*	$1.54*
Revenue – Actual ($M)	$729.95	$531.83
Revenue – Consensus ($M)	$774.56*	$591.87*

Q3: EPS beat by ~$0.10; Revenue missed by ~$60M. Q2: EPS beat; Revenue missed. Values marked with * are from S&P Global consensus (see disclaimer).

Segment performance – Q3 FY25 vs. Q3 FY24

GAAP earnings ($M)

Segment	Q3 FY24	Q3 FY25
Exploration & Production	$(112.0)	$86.7
Pipeline & Storage	$30.7	$28.9
Gathering	$25.0	$30.0
Utility	$2.6	$5.0

Adjusted EBITDA ($M)

Segment	Q3 FY24	Q3 FY25
E&P	$128.5	$202.5
Pipeline & Storage	$68.2	$67.0
Gathering	$47.6	$55.9
Utility	$21.0	$25.7
Corporate/All Other	$(2.7)	$(4.5)
Total	$262.7	$346.7

KPIs (E&P, Midstream, Utility)

KPI	Q3 FY24	Q3 FY25
E&P Production (Bcf)	96.5	111.6
Realized Gas Price after hedges ($/Mcf)	$2.28	$2.71
LOE ($/Mcf)	$0.69	$0.66
G&A ($/Mcf)	$0.19	$0.17
DD&A ($/Mcf)	$0.71	$0.62
Gathering Throughput (MMcf)	118,445	133,271
Firm Transport – Non‑affil. (MMcf)	150,133	158,910
Buffalo Degree Days (3 mos.)	565	825

Non‑GAAP note: Q3 FY25 included no impairment; Q3 FY24 included a $200.7M pre‑tax ceiling test impairment at E&P. Q3 FY25 adjusted operating results equaled GAAP ($1.64), while Q3 FY24 adjusted operating results were $0.99 per share (see reconciliation) .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted EPS	FY25	$6.75–$7.05	$6.80–$6.95	Narrowed, slight midpoint decrease
NYMEX (assumption)	Remaining FY25	$3.50/MMBtu	$3.25/MMBtu	Lowered
E&P Production	FY25	415–425 Bcf	420–425 Bcf	Raised low end
E&P LOE	FY25	$0.68–$0.69/Mcf	$0.67–$0.68/Mcf	Lowered
E&P G&A	FY25	~$0.18–$0.19/Mcf	~$0.18/Mcf	Maintained low end
E&P DD&A	FY25	$0.63–$0.65/Mcf	$0.63–$0.65/Mcf	Maintained
Gathering Revenues	FY25	$250–$260M	$255–$260M	Slightly higher midpoint
Pipeline & Storage Revenues	FY25	$415–$435M	$420–$430M	Narrowed
Utility Customer Margin	FY25	$445–$465M	$450–$460M	Slightly higher floor
Consolidated Capex	FY25	$885–$960M	$890–$955M	Slightly higher floor
Dividend	Annual	—	Raised 4% to $2.14/sh	Increased
Preliminary EPS	FY26	—	$6.35–$6.85 @ $3; $8.00–$8.50 @ $4; $9.75–$10.25 @ $5	Initiated

Why changes: lower 4Q NYMEX partially offset by higher production and lower unit costs; regulated uplift from NY settlement and PA DSIC; capex mix shifts toward Tioga Pathway and Shippingport Lateral .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 & Q2 FY25)	Current Period (Q3 FY25)	Trend
Data center/power gen demand	Positioning Appalachia for data centers; early discussions; offering integrated solutions incl. supply + pipeline	Shippingport Lateral tied to co‑located data center; 205 Mdth/d precedent; speed‑to‑market emphasized	Accelerating opportunity set
Pipeline expansions	Tioga Pathway advancing; >$15M annual rev noted Q2; permitting reform needed	Tioga FERC approval (early FY27 ISD); Shippingport Lateral announced; >$30M combined annual rev	Milestones achieved
E&P capital efficiency and well design	Gen 3 Utica design; rising EUR/1kft; capital trending down since FY23	Gen 3 delivering higher sustained rates; potential Gen 3+/4 tweaks (spacing, proppant)	Further improvement
Hedging/price outlook	Added swaps/collars at favorable levels; constructive on gas; basis watch	~2/3 FY26 protected; collars avg floor ~$3.50, ceiling ~$4.75; strong upside at $5	Maintained constructive, more collars
Cash taxes/AMT	—	Bonus depreciation + AMT changes reduce cash taxes; low‑mid single digit cash tax rate near term	Improving cash tax outlook
Service costs/tariffs	Minimal tariff impact; domestic steel; proactive procurement	Steel inflation muted; service cost bias “slightly down to neutral”	Stable to slightly better
Regulated O&M & rate cases	NY multiyear settlement; PA DSIC started; Empire amendment	Utility O&M +~5% in FY26; Supply Corp rate case planned in FY26 (benefit in early FY27)	On plan

Management Commentary

CEO on growth and 2026 setup: “We expect to see significant earnings growth versus the prior year…momentum in each of our businesses and the overall positive long-term outlook for natural gas” .
CEO on Shippingport/data center: “We…provide 205,000 decatherms per day…starting in [4Q26]…very real potential for…significant additional pipeline capacity” .
CFO on EPS sensitivities and hedging: “Using a $4 price…earnings $8–$8.50…with nearly 2/3 of our production protected…collars average floor $3.50 and ceiling $4.75; at $5 NYMEX, we would expect earnings of $10 at the midpoint” .
Seneca/NFG Midstream President on productivity: “Gen 3 well design…EURs and cumulative production per 1,000 feet increasing by 20–25%…wells sustaining 25–30 MMcf/d rates…well over one year” .

Q&A Highlights

Buyback pause: Management paused repurchases to preserve flexibility while evaluating growth; philosophy unchanged (grow first, then return capital). Expect to complete program in 2026 absent M&A .
Cash taxes: AMT changes and 100% bonus depreciation reduce cash taxes (low‑mid single digits next year; AMT not expected for at least five years) .
Tioga Pathway cadence: Construction in spring/summer 2026; modernization elements part of an ongoing $75–$100M/year program .
Service cost outlook: Steel inflation muted; overall service cost bias “slightly down to neutral” .
Egress/data center supply: NFG is in active dialogues; “perfect trifecta” of growth inventory, egress, and IG credit positions it well; announcements likely post‑execution .
Utica productivity: Latest pads trending above type curve; management sees potential upside as wells hold flat rates longer (Gen 3+ under test) .
Macro pipes: Williams NESI and Constitution would benefit basin pricing and NFG; Constitution faces NY hurdles; permitting reform remains pivotal .

Estimates Context

Q3 FY25 results vs. S&P Global consensus: EPS $1.64 actual vs. $1.54 consensus (beat); Revenue $531.8M actual vs. $591.9M consensus (miss). Q2 FY25: EPS $2.39 vs. $2.21 (beat); Revenue $729.9M vs. $774.6M (miss) *.
Implications: EPS upside driven by E&P cost/pricing leverage and productivity; revenue shortfall likely reflects commodity/mix and timing; FY25 guidance narrowed with lower 4Q NYMEX assumption, while FY26 guide implies estimate revisions upward if strip holds near $4 .

Values marked with * in tables or text are retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Execution remains the core driver: Record E&P volumes, lower unit costs, and better realized pricing underpin EPS outperformance even as revenue missed consensus *.
2026 setup is attractive: Preliminary EPS +~20% at $4 NYMEX, with collars and swaps providing downside protection and upside exposure (to ~$10 EPS at $5) .
Visible midstream uplift: Tioga Pathway and Shippingport Lateral are progressing and together should add >$30M annual revenue when in service (4Q26/early FY27) .
Regulated growth is durable: NY multiyear settlement and PA DSIC support earnings and rate base growth (5–7% CAGR), with a Supply Corp rate case targeted in FY26 for benefit in early FY27 .
Capital efficiency theme intact: Gen 3+ design and integrated gathering continue to drive lower capital per unit and higher sustained rates; FY26 E&P capex guided down ~4% with production guided up ~6% midpoint .
Capital allocation optionality: Dividend increased for the 55th consecutive year; buybacks paused near highs to prioritize growth but expected to resume if opportunities don’t materialize .
Trading lens: Near‑term catalysts include data center/power offtake arrangements, FERC/permits and construction mobilization on Shippingport/Tioga, and commodity tape; EPS sensitivity to NYMEX is explicit and hedged to limit downside .

Additional detail from primary documents (citations):

Consolidated financial statements and segment disclosures for Q3 FY25 .
Non‑GAAP reconciliations (adjusted operating results and adjusted EBITDA) .
FY25/FY26 guidance tables and assumptions .
Prior trend context: Q1 and Q2 FY25 results, guidance moves, and call commentary – – –.

Notes: Consensus values marked with * are sourced from S&P Global (Capital IQ) consensus.

NATIONAL FUEL GAS CO (NFG)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary