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NATIONAL FUEL GAS CO (NFG)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 FY25 delivered an EPS beat but a revenue miss: adjusted EPS $1.22 vs $1.11 consensus (+9.3%) on stronger upstream volumes/pricing and lower per‑unit costs, while revenue was $456.4M vs $513.5M consensus (-11.1%) as regulated segments were seasonally softer and Utility posted a small loss* .
  • FY26 formal guidance introduced at $7.60–$8.10 adjusted EPS (assumes $3.75 NYMEX), consistent with prior preliminary sensitivity at lower price assumptions; capex plan unchanged and production guided to 440–455 Bcf .
  • Strategic pipeline growth advancing: FERC filing for the 205,000 Dth/d Shippingport Lateral (target late CY26 in‑service; ~$15M annual revenue), and Tioga Pathway remains on schedule for late CY26 .
  • Upstream engine outperformed: Tioga Utica drove record 112 Bcf quarterly production (+21% y/y) and 9% higher realized prices ($2.61/Mcf) with lower cash operating cost per Mcf (to $0.53) .
  • Additional catalysts/risks: Announced Ohio LDC acquisition ($2.62B; expected close 4Q CY26), hedges ~65% for FY26, planned Supply Corp FERC rate case in 2H FY26; note separate legal headline risk from PA environmental charges publicized on Oct 30, 2025 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Upstream execution: “adjusted earnings per share increased by 58%” y/y in Q4, driven by production and price realization gains and lower per‑unit costs . CEO: “great execution across our businesses… best‑in‑class nature of our assets in the EDA” .
    • Inventory depth and market access: Added ~220 Upper Utica locations (EDA) and signed 250 MMcf/d (late 2028) new takeaway capacity; CEO expects “mid‑single‑digit” production growth supported by Tioga Pathway and new transport .
    • Regulated growth pipeline: Shippingport Lateral filed with FERC; $57M project to create 205 MDth/d delivery capacity and ~$15M annual revenues; Tioga Pathway approved and on schedule (late CY26) .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Revenue shortfall vs consensus despite EPS beat: $456.4M vs $513.5M, suggesting mix/seasonality and Utility headwinds; Utility posted a $17.8M GAAP loss in Q4 (higher O&M and tax rate), partially offsetting upstream strength* .
    • DD&A per Mcf ticked up sequentially (to $0.74/Mcf), though still below prior year; gathering O&M per Mcf also higher y/y ($0.13 vs $0.11) .
    • Legal overhang: A law firm announced an investigation following PA criminal charges alleging 100 environmental violations on Oct 30, 2025, raising headline risk (no financial impact disclosed in company materials) .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2024Q3 2025Q4 2025 ActualQ4 2025 Consensus*
Operating Revenues ($USD Millions)$372.1 $531.8 $456.4 $513.5*
Diluted EPS (GAAP) ($)$(1.84) $1.64 $1.18 —
Adjusted EPS ($)$0.77 $1.64 $1.22 $1.11*
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$230.7 $346.7 $300.4 —
  • EPS vs estimates: beat by ~$0.11; revenue vs estimates: miss by ~$57.1M*.
  • Adjusted figures reconcile per company non‑GAAP tables .
    *Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment breakdown – Q4 2025 vs prior year

Segment Total Operating Revenues ($USD Millions)Q4 2024Q4 2025
Integrated Upstream & Gathering$224.9 $300.4
Pipeline & Storage$104.5 $105.8
Utility$79.9 $87.9
Consolidated$372.1 $456.4

Key KPIs

KPIQ2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025
Natural Gas Production (Bcf)105.5 111.6 111.5
Realized Price after hedging ($/Mcf)$2.94 $2.71 $2.61
Cash Operating Costs ($/Mcf)$0.92 (E&P) $0.91 (E&P) $0.53 (Integrated)
DD&A ($/Mcf)$0.61 $0.62 $0.74

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EPSFY 2026Preliminary sensitivity: $8.00–$8.50 at $4.00 NYMEX $7.60–$8.10 at $3.75 NYMEX Formal range set (price assumption lower)
Consolidated CapexFY 2026$955–$1,065M $955–$1,065M Maintained
Upstream & Gathering CapexFY 2026$560–$610M (restated) $560–$610M Maintained
Pipeline & Storage CapexFY 2026$210–$250M $210–$250M Maintained
Utility CapexFY 2026$185–$205M $185–$205M Maintained
ProductionFY 2026440–455 Bcf 440–455 Bcf Maintained
P&S RevenuesFY 2026$415–$430M $415–$430M Maintained
Utility Customer MarginFY 2026$470–$490M $470–$490M Maintained
Utility O&MFY 2026$250–$260M $250–$260M Maintained
Effective Tax RateFY 2026~25.5% ~25.5% Maintained
Dividend (annual rate)Ongoing$2.14 (55th consecutive increase) $2.14 Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2/Q3 FY25)Current Period (Q4 FY25)Trend
Data center-driven gas demand & pipeline expansionsInitiated Shippingport Lateral; Tioga Pathway FERC approval; projects targeting late CY26 ISD Shippingport filed; 205 MDth/d; ~$15M/yr; materials ordered; fall CY26 ISD; dialogues with multiple parties on more expansions Accelerating
Upstream inventory depth (EDA/Utica)Strong Tioga Utica pad performance; raised FY25 production guide Added ~220 Upper Utica locations; nearly doubles Tioga Utica inventory; ~20 years of core EDA inventory with <$2 breakevens Expanding
Hedging & FCF disciplineRefinanced debt; updated FY25 guide; dividend increased ~65% FY26 hedged: swaps ~$4, collars $3.60/$4.80; FY26 FCF expected $300–$350M Strengthening
Regulatory path (rates)NY Utility rate settlement effective Oct 1, 2024; Empire settlement amendment (modest reductions Nov 1, 2025) Supply Corp planning FERC rate case 2H FY26; potential PA utility rate case Building
Segment reportingSeparate E&P and Gathering Combined into “Integrated Upstream & Gathering” (restated) Simplified
NY energy policy tone—CEO cites momentum toward “all‑of‑the‑above” recognition of gas reliability/affordability More constructive
ESG/Responsibly sourced gas—Midstream ECHO rating improved to A-→A; Seneca MIQ A maintained Improving
Legal/regulatory risk—PA charges (Oct 30, 2025) referenced in external PR; firm investigating fiduciary duties Elevated headline risk

Management Commentary

  • CEO (David Bauer): “National Fuel closed out an exceptional fiscal 2025 with a strong fourth quarter… adjusted earnings per share increased by 58% compared to the prior year… Our unique portfolio of pipelines… are well positioned to provide speed to market for potential data centers.”
  • CFO (Tim Silverstein): “At [NYMEX] ~$3.75… adjusted earnings are expected to be $7.60–$8.10… we’ve modestly added to our fiscal 2026 position and now sit at 65% hedged with a base of NYMEX swaps at an average price of approximately $4.”
  • Upstream/GM (Justin Loweth): “We’ve significantly increased our core Tioga Utica development inventory… more than doubles our Tioga Utica inventory to approximately 400 future development locations… net recoverable gas… over 10 Tcf.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Upper Utica adoption cadence: Near-term program remains lower‑Utica weighted; mix could balance into 2027–2028 as optimization continues .
  • Data center demand funnel: “Really good interest from other data center developers… integration gives us a big advantage” offering pipeline service and supply .
  • Financing Ohio LDC acquisition: Debt at parent; equity sizing still ~$300–$400M with offerings targeted for late 1Q/spring; bridge facility syndicated/bifurcated for optionality .
  • Supply Corp returns/rate case: “Low double‑digit” typical allowed return; planning FERC filing in 2H FY26; PA utility base rate case likely ahead of FY27 tracker cap .

Estimates Context

  • Q4 FY25 results vs S&P Global consensus: Adjusted EPS $1.22 vs $1.11 (+9.3%); Revenue $456.4M vs $513.5M (-11.1%); 4 EPS estimates, 4 revenue estimates*. Next quarter (Q1 FY26) consensus: EPS $1.91; revenue $671.5M*.
    *Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Mixed headline: clear EPS beat despite revenue miss; focus on earnings quality from upstream productivity and cost control .
  • FY26 outlook credible and hedged: $7.60–$8.10 EPS at $3.75 NYMEX with ~65% hedged; embedded FCF $300–$350M supports balance sheet and Ohio LDC financing .
  • Secular pipeline demand tailwind from data centers: Shippingport Lateral adds ~$15M annuity in FY27; more projects likely given dialogues and interconnectivity advantages .
  • Deep, low‑cost inventory underpins mid‑single‑digit production growth without capex creep; Upper Utica adds duration and optionality .
  • Regulated earnings growth drivers intact: Tioga Pathway timing, Supply Corp rate case, and Pennsylvania utility filing plan set up FY27+ uplift .
  • Watch legal and policy tape: external PR on PA environmental charges adds headline risk; CEO notes improving NY policy tone toward natural gas .
  • Stock setup: catalysts ahead include regulatory milestones (rate cases, FERC authorizations), Upper Utica results/mix shift, and acquisition financing progress—key narrative movers near term .

Additional references:

  • Q4 FY25 8‑K earnings release and segment detail .
  • Q3 FY25 8‑K for trend/guidance baseline .
  • Q2 FY25 8‑K for seasonal context and rate case outcomes .
  • Other Q4‑period press releases: call scheduling ; IOGR II acquisition of non‑op interests operated by Seneca .