NGL Energy Partners - Earnings Call - Q3 2021

Executive Summary

• Q3 FY2021 revenue was $1.462B, down 34% year over year, with a net loss of $380.5M driven by non‑cash impairments tied to the Extraction settlement.
• Adjusted EBITDA was $125M for the quarter; management reinstated FY2021 Adjusted EBITDA guidance at $500M (including a ~$45M Extraction impact) and guided FY2022 to $570–$600M.
• Grand Mesa volumes fell to ~69 kbpd (vs ~134 kbpd a year ago) as the contract transitioned to a new Supply Agreement with a crude price adder above $50/bbl; no MVCs under the new structure.
• Liquidity was extended via $2.05B senior secured notes and a new $500M ABL; common and preferred distributions are suspended until Total Leverage ≤4.75x, a key catalyst tied to deleveraging pace.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Water Solutions efficiencies: Operating expense averaged $0.27 per barrel and disposal fees $0.61 per barrel; total produced water volumes were ~1.4M bbl/d, aided by Poker Lake pipeline deliveries.
• Liquids & Refined Products resiliency: Segment delivered $42M Adjusted EBITDA; propane benefited from seasonal cold snaps and improving product pricing.
• Strategic contract outcome: New Supply Agreement with Extraction retains barrels on Grand Mesa and adds a price adder above $50/bbl—“If crude exceeds $50 a barrel, we get to share in that increase” (CEO).

What Went Wrong

• Impairments and Grand Mesa volume pressure: NGL recorded a $145.8M intangible impairment (rejected transportation contract) and a $237.8M goodwill impairment in Crude Oil Logistics; Grand Mesa volumes averaged ~69 kbpd vs ~134 kbpd last year.
• Consolidated results: Revenue declined to $1.462B (from $2.227B) and net loss was $380.5M, reflecting impairments and extraction-related write-offs.
• Distribution suspension and higher interest costs: Distributions are restricted until Total Leverage ≤4.75x; refinancing moves maturities to 2026 but raises interest expense near term.

Transcript

Speaker 0

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Q3 F1 twenty twenty one NGL Earnings Partners Conference Call. At this time, all participant lines are in a listen only mode. Later, we conduct a question and answer session and instructions will follow at that time. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to hand the call over to your speaker today, Mr.

Trey Karlovich, our CFO. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Trey, thank you, and good evening, everybody. As a reminder, this conference call includes forward looking statements and information. Words such as anticipate, project, expect, plan, goal, forecast, intend, could, believe, may and similar expressions and statements are intended to identify forward looking statements. While NGL Energy Partners believes that its expectations are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from the projections, anticipated results or other expectations included in the forward looking statement.

These factors include prices and market demand for natural gas, natural gas liquids, refined products and crude oil, level of production of crude oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas, the effect of weather conditions on demand for oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids and the ability to successfully identify and consummate growth opportunities and strategic acquisitions at costs that are accretive to financial results and to successfully integrate and operate assets and businesses that are built or acquired. Other factors that could impact these forward looking statements are described in Risk Factors in the Partnership's Annual Report on Form 10 ks, quarterly reports on Form 10 Q and other public filings and press releases. NGL Energy Partners undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. This conference call also includes certain non GAAP measures, namely EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow, which management believes are useful in evaluating our financial results. Please see the partnership's earnings releases, investor presentations and annual and quarterly reports on Form 10 ks and Form 10 Q on our website at www.nglenergypartners.com under the Investor Relations tab for more information on our use of non GAAP measures as well as reconciliations of differences between any non GAAP measures discussed on this conference call to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure.

With that, I will turn the call over to our CEO, Mr. Mike Kremble. Mike?

Speaker 2

Great. Thanks, Trey. Welcome. I'd like to begin with NGL's business outlook. First, on our water segment, higher crude prices mean more DUC completions and ultimately drilling in the DJ, Delaware and Eagle Ford, which will translate into higher volumes.

The DUC count on acreage dedicated to NGL in the Delaware is in excess of 500 wells currently. The DJ has at least eight rigs running and three completion rigs that we know With respect to BLM land, we know about as much as you do. Our customers have multiyear inventory of drilling permits. We do not expect a surge of rigs entering the basin. The upstream companies will spend within their cash flows, which could actually be better for midstream as there will be consistency to drilling activity, not the peaks and valleys we've seen in the past.

From a right of way perspective, we anticipated the current environment, and we have secured all the BLM right of way we need to service our customers as well as future dedications we are working on. Importantly, we continue to reduce our cost per barrel through installation of station power, limiting diesel and generators, incremental barrels coming to us on pipe, and staff reductions through automation and consolidation. With respect to our crude oil logistics, as you know, we settled the extraction bankruptcy, retaining their crude oil production with a new term supply agreement. We negotiated what we call a price adder. If crude exceeds $50 a barrel, we get to share in that increase.

That will come into play beginning March 1. Obviously, we're very fortunate because crude is in excess of $58 at the moment. With higher crude oil prices, we anticipate increasing volumes. It was important for us to retain these volumes on our pipeline and secure dedication over the term of the contract to ensure that all future production flows on Great Grand Mesa as well. Regarding our liquids, both propane and butane blending have performed at or above our expectations for this year.

We are expecting this segment to show improved earnings next year as demand for liquids and refined products is expected to improve post pandemic. And we are currently the beneficiary of a mini polar vortex now that will benefit our wholesale propane division for the current quarter. Regarding our adjusted EBITDA guidance for fiscal twenty twenty one, EBITDA guidance remains at $500,000,000 That is the net of the impact of the extraction settlement, which cost us an estimated $45,000,000 this year. For fiscal 'twenty two, EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $570,000,000 to $600,000,000 no change. The increase over 2021 is predominantly in the Water segment with additional contributions from liquids and lower legal fees.

Regarding our capital expenditures, reducing maintenance CapEx has been a focus as we upgraded our facilities in the prior fiscal year. Our budget for fiscal twenty twenty one was approximately $50,000,000 We have incurred just over $22,000,000 for the nine months ending twelvethirty one. We've been very selective in spending growth capital as the majority of infrastructure has already been built. We spent $43,000,000 through the first nine months on approximately a $50,000,000 budget. Combined, we have incurred $65,000,000 in maintenance and growth CapEx on a 100,000,000 budget and expect to come in under budget for the year.

In fiscal 'twenty two, maintenance cap will be about $35,000,000 growth cap around $75,000,000 which is 110,000,000 and we previously guided to a combined range of 100,000,000 to $125,000,000 Thereafter, growth CapEx is expected to be around $50,000,000 annually and maintenance between 40,000,000 and 50 Trey will speak to our recent refinancing and elimination of the revolving credit facility that would have matured this October. We explored a number of private and public options and ultimately accessed the bond market at an attractive interest rate. In summary, this path provides for an extension of our maturities from 2021 to 2026. We now have covenant flexibility by eliminating leverage and interest coverage maintenance covenants and greatly improved liquidity. All the options we pursued would have required a suspension of both common unit distribution and preferred share dividends.

Under the option we chose, these payments can be reinstated once our leverage falls to 4.5x or 0.75x or less. We cannot project when this will be achieved, but our goal is to delever as quickly as possible through debt reduction and EBITDA enhancement. So with that, back

Speaker 1

to you, Trey. Great. Thanks, Mike. I'm going to start with the refinancing. Obviously, this was a very significant transaction for the partnership.

First, I'd like to thank our NGL team for all their efforts in pulling this transaction together. It was a significant like I said, was a significant accomplishment. As we discussed on our last earnings call, the extension of our credit facility has been our top priority due to the significant amount of those outstanding on the facility, about $1,700,000,000 plus $140,000,000 in letters of credit, and the near term maturity of the debt, which went current in October and matured later in 2021. We were working closely with our relationship banks to effectuate a short term extension into 2023. However, we were not able to meet certain terms and requirements of some of the lenders.

We evaluated several alternatives to complete the extension, including asset sales, minority interest investments in our assets, private capital transactions, among others. Ultimately, we made a determination that a refinancing of the entire credit facility would be the best outcome for all stakeholders as it provided a complete solution to near term maturities and will allow the business operations to recover and grow following COVID, NOPEC and our recent Mesquite and Hillstone acquisitions as well as the settlement with Extraction. This refinancing pushed $2,000,000,000 of maturities that were coming due between now and June 2023 out to February 2026. It also provided over $200,000,000 of needed incremental liquidity today as we are managing higher commodity prices and a ramp up in demand and activity associated with the COVID recovery. This refinancing obviously came at a cost.

Our interest costs will be higher over the next few years. And as Mike noted, our distributions will be temporarily suspended until our leverage is reduced. But we believe this was the best outcome for all stakeholders considering some of the alternatives we were faced with and the impact to near term maturity and tight liquidity was having on our operations. This new structure provides the Partnership with significant flexibility, especially once our leverage is reduced to under 4.75x as long as liquidity remains over certain levels and no significant debt maturities are due within ninety days. The elimination of financial covenants will also enable the management team to focus on executing our business plans over the near term to grow our cash flows and earnings of our established asset base.

We currently have minimal capital expenditure needs or requirements over the next few years, which also fits well within this new financial structure. All capital expenditures will either be funded with cash flows from operations or possibly on the ABL, and any significant CapEx or acquisition opportunities that arise will be specifically self financed. Ultimately, this refi provided the partnership with a full solution to its financing needs, and we appreciate the bank group that supported us through this transaction as well as the investors that participated in the notes offering. Our goal is to delever our balance sheet and provide the business with flexibility to maximize returns to the benefit of all stakeholders. We will be highly focused on reducing debt and continuing to extend maturities over the coming quarters.

Moving to our results for the quarter, I would like to point out a few of the items that impacted the quarter specifically. As we noted on the last call, the Poker Lake connection came online on October 1, a significant milestone for our Water Solutions business, and water volumes in the Northern Delaware Basin continued to grow. Extraction diverted significant volumes from Grand Mesa and our Crude Oil segment as both parties worked towards the ultimate settlement and new contractual arrangements that Mike covered. And we completed additional note repurchases at various discounts through the quarter as well. Overall, our adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $125,000,000 and has totaled $354,000,000 year to date.

With the impact of these items, our total leverage at twelvethirty onetwenty 20 ended up just over 6x. Some additional color on the Crude Oil segment. The Crude Oil segment reported approximately $26,000,000 of adjusted EBITDA this quarter and $122,000,000 year to date. Grand Mesa volumes averaged only 69,000 barrels per day this quarter, with the largest decrease due to the extraction barrels being diverted. We have estimated the fiscal twenty twenty one impact from the extraction bankruptcy to be 45,000,000 which includes the lower volumes, revised rates, the write off of minimum volume deficiencies and legal costs for defending our contracts.

We received $35,000,000 for our remaining unsecured claims in January. This amount will not be recognized in fiscal twenty twenty one adjusted EBITDA. As a result of the bankruptcy and the global settlement with Extraction, we wrote off our intangible assets associated with legacy transportation agreements. This also requires us to evaluate the goodwill associated with the Crude Logistics segment for an impairment. We wrote off $384,000,000 of goodwill and intangible assets during this quarter as a noncash charge to earnings.

Third quarter adjusted EBITDA for this segment also includes the write off of approximately $6,000,000 related to previously invoiced minimum volume deficiencies to Extraction. We are expecting improved earnings from this segment on a go forward basis as we transition to the new supply agreement with Extraction and see increased activity from other producers in the DJ Basin. We also expect to benefit from the higher crude oil prices in the current market. Moving to Water. The Water Solutions adjusted EBITDA was $66,000,000 for the quarter and has totaled $184,000,000 year to date.

Total produced water volumes averaged 1,400,000 barrels per day during the quarter with an increase in the Northern Delaware Basin driven by the new Poker Lake deliveries. Delaware Basin volumes now represent 86% of total portfolio volumes and over 97% of the Delaware Basin volumes are on our pipeline system. Eagle Ford and DJ Basin volumes remain challenged by the lower crude oil prices, rig counts and completions coupled with production declines during the quarter. We are starting to see increased activities in these basins in the current commodity price environment, but continue to expect a slower recovery of volumes in those areas of operations. We received an average disposal fee of $0.61 per barrel for the quarter, a slight decrease driven by the new Poker Lake volumes.

Skim oil volumes averaged 2,000 barrels per day during the quarter, and we recovered about 14 basis points from our disposal water. Again, Poker Lake volumes have impacted our recovery as they contain minimal skim oil. Operating expenses was another highlight, with reductions realized in the prior quarter carried into the third quarter, and we averaged $0.27 per barrel for the quarter. We expect this cost per barrel to continue to decline as we add incremental pipeline barrels and capture the efficiency to the scale on our system as well as some of the items Mike mentioned earlier. Finally, going to Liquids and Refined Products.

Adjusted EBITDA for this segment totaled $42,000,000 this quarter and $75,000,000 year to date. Product margins remain in line with our expectations during the quarter, and volumes continue to be impacted by weaker demand through COVID. We have seen some increased product pricing in the recent months, and several cold snaps should benefit our wholesale propane business demand. This segment remains in line with our expectations for the year, and we expect it to perform better as demand picks up for motor fuels and boiling stocks in a recovering macroeconomic environment. Our corporate costs remain in line with expectations as well and included the onetime legal costs associated with our defense of the extraction bankruptcy of approximately $5,000,000 year to date.

Our growth CapEx totaled approximately $5,000,000 for the quarter and $44,000,000 year to date. As previously mentioned, we have minimal growth capital expenditure requirements going forward, and we believe we can service our producer customers utilizing our existing pipeline system and interconnected disposal assets. We continue to manage our maintenance CapEx as well, which was about $6,000,000 during the quarter and has totaled $22,000,000 year to date. Our combined capital expenditures has totaled $66,000,000 as Mike mentioned, and is still expected to come in below the $100,000,000 guidance for the full year. Mike also covered our initial guidance for fiscal twenty twenty two at 100,000,000 to $125,000,000 for growth, acquisitions and maintenance expenditures.

A portion of these expenditures would be dependent on successfully securing additional acreage dedications in the Delaware. Finally, we've covered some of the highlights and expectations related to each of our segments going into next year. We initiated adjusted EBITDA guidance for next year between $570,000,000 and 600,000,000 This guidance includes assumptions around increased produced water volumes, crude volumes transported on Grand Mesa by extraction and other detailed basin producers, commodity prices remaining at reasonable levels or higher and a recovery in demand for refined products and natural gas liquids. In summary, this was a very significant three to four month period for the Partnership as we resolved several unknowns, including extraction and near term debt maturities, and positioned the partnership for future success. This has been an unprecedented time for all of us, we appreciate your continued support.

That concludes our prepared remarks. We will now open the line up for questions.

Speaker 0

And thank And our first question comes from TJ Schultz from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Speaker 3

Hey guys, good afternoon. Just first so I'm clear, with the debt deal done, are you no longer pursuing a JV of the water business?

Speaker 2

That's correct. We are not.

Speaker 3

Okay. Understood. And then on the water business, as we think about other potential dedications out there, are there dedications similar in size to Poker Lake out there that you expect in the coming year? And is guidance next year dependent on capturing any of those types of dedications? Or is it more of the DUC conversions driving some of that growth?

Speaker 2

Yes. There are two in particular we're working on that are of that size. None of those are in our numbers. So it's more we anticipate more of the DUCs getting complete. That's quite a bit of water.

And then hopefully we just kind of maintain a certain rig count and, as I said before, rid of the peaks and valleys.

Speaker 3

Okay. Understood. And maybe for Trey, on distributions, I understand the 4.75x leverage target. But

Speaker 1

where do

Speaker 3

you want to manage, the business longer term from a debt perspective? Should we assume you keep driving leverage lower before restarting, the common unit distributions? And then is there a different time line kind of thinking along those lines to pay preferred pay on the preferred versus restarting on the common? Sure.

Speaker 1

So the 4.75% is the threshold, TJ. So we have to be below 4.75 in order to make restricted payments, which would include common and preferred distributions. The preferred distributions will accumulate, so we will have and we will have to make preferred distributions before we can make common distributions. Obviously, we want to continue to push leverage lower. Our target is not 4.75%.

We'd like to get below 4x. That's been a long term goal and continues to be the goal. But there will be numerous factors that go into that decision. Ultimately, we have to look at the performance of the business, the liquidity position, what maturities look like, what the market looks like at that point in time. So there will be numerous factors that weigh into that decision.

But we will have to make the preferred distribution or address the preferreds prior to making a common distribution.

Speaker 3

Okay, understood. Thanks.

Speaker 0

Thank you. And our next question comes from Patrick Fitzgerald from Baird. Your line is now open.

Speaker 1

Hey, congrats on getting the new deal done. I wanted to ask about the Crude Oil Logistics segment. Obviously, there's a lot of moving pieces in the $45,000,000 reduction. But assuming oil is at current level or stays at current levels based on the new deal with extraction, what would you expect the impact to be versus what you had to what you have now kind of on a full year basis? So the $45,000,000 impact, as we mentioned, about 5,000,000 of that is related to the legal costs.

The remainder is driven by volume and then rate. Under the new structure, as Mike discussed, we have what we call a price adder. In today's environment, we would have a benefit from that price adder. The key to what the earnings profile would look like would be volume. So the extraction has they've emerged from bankruptcy.

They are looking to start to increase their production. They have activities going on within the basin. Higher price environment obviously should support their activities. But that will be the driver for the Grand Mesa asset, which is the biggest piece of crude, will be what ultimate volumes are moved on the pipeline. Under the new contract, as we mentioned, there's not a minimum volume commitment.

So we are aligned with extraction and with their production profile. So they can increase production as well as other producers in the basin. Extraction just happens to be the largest as well as other producers in the basin, if they can increase production out of the basin, that will be to our benefit on a grant basis. The guidance we put out about three or four weeks ago, I will tell you, do not factor in $57 or $58 crude prices. So that's a benefit to this point in time.

The key will be what does that mean from a production profile perspective. Okay. And how much of a benefit would that be? You know, are some range what what kind of a range of benefit would that be? Yeah.

The I mean, the the what I think you're getting at is is, you know, what is our rate on Grand Mesa? What I think will what we can say is that the rate is not where it was historically, which was about $4.40. But it's also not at where some people speculate it at $2 or less. And with the rate adder, as prices continue to increase or stay at these levels, we get back closer to what our existing our previous rate was. But again, the key is going to be volume.

Okay. Great. Now under the new deal, you can still buy back both your 23s and your later dated senior notes up to $200,000,000 Where does that fall in the priority spectrum? Yeah. It's it's a bit of a balancing act.

Obviously, we want to delever. We also need to address near term maturity. You know, we will be generating pretty significant excess cash flow over the over the coming quarters. I would expect us to look at all options between the '23, '25 and '26. There are I think there's good reasons to address the 23s first because of the near term maturity, but then you also can capture more of a discount on the 25s and 26s.

So it will be a bit of a balancing act, so to speak. But I think all options are on the table. Mike, I don't know if you want to add.

Speaker 4

Yes. I think I would

Speaker 2

just add, we're definitely focused on the 23s.

Speaker 1

Okay, great. And then just you kind of talked about it a little bit, but 500,000,000 to five eighty five million midpoint, you said water is going to be a big component of that. If you could any additional color on by segment how you would expect that to occur would be helpful. Yes. We'd expect crude to be fairly consistent with this year's earnings is our expectation for next year right now.

Again, higher commodity price could be a benefit there. Liquids, as we mentioned, we are expecting liquids to perform better than it did this current year. Last year was an anomaly to the upside. There were several onetime items that impacted last year to the good. So we're not expecting to get back to that level necessarily in liquids, but we are expecting improvement.

And then water. Again, water, if you look at the current run rate of $66,000,000 that's a benefit on what we're seeing for this year to date. We'll have a full year of Poker Lake, which we only have six months in the current year as well as the growth that we're expecting primarily in the Delaware Basin. We are looking at some improvement in the DJ and the Eagle Ford assets, but not significant. It will be driven by the Delaware and what we have going there.

Speaker 0

And our next question comes from Avi Ginger from TPR. I

Speaker 1

was wondering if you could help me understand the change in gross margins in the crude oil logistics between the second and third quarter, so a 10 deterioration. Are those onetime items? Is that a permanent change in the profitability of that business? So that gross margin in crude will be driven by what the shape of the market looks like. So if earlier in this year, we were in a contango market, that will drive or could impact the margins that we generate in that segment as we are would be holding barrels in that business versus in a backward dated market where we're trying to liquidate the barrels.

If you look over time, the margins, the crude oil margins, have some variability to them depending on what the again, what the shape of the curve looks like. Okay. Thank you. Primarily crude is driven by historically, it's been driven by the transportation fees. Okay.

And another question on the on the preferred accruals. Assuming that the that there's no preferred payments in the few quarters coming forward, how much what's

Speaker 2

the total accruals across all three classes per quarter

Speaker 1

or per year, if you know? It's between eight at the current rate, it's between 85,000,000 and $90,000,000 per year. Okay. Thank you. Yep.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Speaker 0

And one moment for questions, please. And our next question comes from Philip Duffner from Borealis. Your line is now open.

Speaker 4

Hi, thanks for taking my question. I was wondering on the Grand Mesa pipeline, right? The volumes fell like pretty dramatically quarter over quarter. Could you give some more color on what were the different components that caused that breakdown? Also, to what level could they rebound?

Or do you expect them to rebound this quarter and going forward?

Speaker 1

Yes. So that completely relates to extraction and their restructuring. So they entered bankruptcy in June. Their volumes came down significantly in our fiscal third quarter, October through December. With our new contract in place, we are expecting those to go back.

Beginning this quarter, it will take some time for them to recover back to what their prior production levels were. They are active in the basin, but it will take some period of time.

Speaker 4

And you mentioned earlier that they diverted some barrels. Did you mean by that, did they actually put it on different pipelines and those will come back to you like immediately? Or is there also a delay to that impact?

Speaker 1

Correct. Those barrels are coming back this quarter. Got it.

Speaker 4

And can you give some more color in terms of the gross profit per barrel in the Water segment? I mean, much scope is there for that to decline from the $0.61 per barrel?

Speaker 1

So the disposal rate per barrel, as we increase barrels in the Delaware Basin on pipe, could come down a little bit. However, the operating expenses per barrel in that basin are also lower. So our margin is about the same as compared to some of our ancillary basins as well. So while the disposal rate per barrel could come down over time as we add more pipe barrels in that basin, the OpEx per barrel should come down at relatively the same level.

Speaker 4

Got it. Just in terms of like quarter over quarter, you're looking at EBITDA increasing from around like 125,000,000 to $145,000,000 based on the guidance. Can you give us some color on that quarter over quarter period? What are going to be the main drivers here?

Speaker 1

Sure. So the incremental volume is coming back on Grand Mesa for crude. We had some onetime charges during the quarter, about $11,000,000 related to the extraction settlement between legal and a write off of minimum volume deficiencies. We also are expecting water volumes to continue to grow through the quarter. And then remember, our liquids business has some seasonal components where our propane business generates most of its profit kind of just, call it, November, December through March.

Speaker 4

And

Speaker 0

our next question comes from Jason Stewart from Stewart Holdings. Your line is now open.

Speaker 5

Yes. Thank you. Good afternoon, guys. I have two questions. First, I may have missed it, but can you give us some insight?

Was there any debt repurchased during this quarter at a discount or otherwise?

Speaker 2

There was a little bit

Speaker 1

of debt repurchased during this quarter. In total, during the year, we repurchased about $125,000,000 of face value notes and spent about $75,000,000 so a net $50,000,000 debt reduction from repurchases.

Speaker 5

Okay. Second question, can you give a little color or insight, if you've had it from your customers regarding the expected ramp up for volumes on Poker Lake?

Speaker 1

Yes. So Poker Lake volumes came online exactly how we expected it. We have seen an increase coming into this calendar year and expecting those volumes to continue to increase through this year. We have no reason to believe that those volumes will not be in line with the producer expectations. Yes.

Speaker 0

Thank you. And our next question comes from Fernando Answer from ABCL Incorporated. Your line is now open.

Speaker 1

Good afternoon, guys. First question is, if, god forbid, if if oil were to fall back into twenties, thirties, how secure is the global agreement with extraction? Would they be, again, easy to retrieve themselves from the contract or divert a barrel to another pipeline? No. It is those those the barrels would be dedicated.

The question would be how like, what does their drilling activity look like at that at those levels? But any barrels produced on the dedication would come to our system. Okay. And then the the the leveraging, from from what you're from what I'm seeing is gonna be very slow, possibly in the next, I don't know, five, seven, possibly ten years to to leverage the business to a appropriate level before paying preferred in in common. But ballpark figure, I mean, this is a hypothetical question.

What would be the EBITDA if all three segments were at full capacity? Say, if the premium was at, you know, 3,000,000 barrels and Granada was at a 150,000 barrels. What would be the EBITDA if all three segments were firing on all eight segments, ballpark figure?

Speaker 2

It could be more money than we can count. I know, listen, it would be a happy day. But I think to your first observation, if we were to if your EBITDA is $600,000,000 and your debt is $3 some billion, if you're reducing your debt by $300,000,000 that's the half a turn a year. So just on that math, it would take three years to get down into 4.5x. If there was no increase in EBITDA, which over there, we expect better results each year from our water business.

Speaker 1

So I

Speaker 2

appreciate that. Okay.

Speaker 1

One final question, as a retail investor that owns tens of thousands of shares of NGO, and I think I speak for the retail community, what would be the incentive for us to stay invested now now that the dividend has gone to the bondholders and possibly for the next three, five years? What would you think would be our incentive to to stay invested for long term? Thank you.

Speaker 2

I don't know that I can say much about buying and selling our equity. We're in a blackout period. So all I can say is watch what I do.

Speaker 1

Okay. Thank you very much, Mike. Appreciate it.

Speaker 0

And thank you. And our next question comes from Sam Castillo from JPMorgan. Your line is now open.

Speaker 2

Hi, thanks for taking the question. I know you guys can't comment on customer specific volumes, but when you say that XOG deferred volumes during the quarter, were they shipping any volumes on Grand Mesa? I'm just trying to bridge into what current transport volumes look like in 4Q and run rate going forward.

Speaker 1

Yes. There is limited of what we can disclose regarding shippers on Grand Mesa. So as we stated, they had they did deliver volumes. They did divert a significant amount of volumes. They are bringing volumes back.

So unfortunately, can't give specifics around it, but they did deliver some volumes during the quarter.

Speaker 2

Okay. Thanks.

Speaker 0

Thank you. And our next question comes from Alan Fraeken from Lone Star Capital. Your line is now open.

Speaker 1

Hi, guys. Thank you for taking the question. When you created your guidance for next year's EBITDA, did you have any revenue adds from the new EksoG contract baked into guidance? Or was guidance already at the yes, in next year's guidance? We built next year's guidance based off of the new contract and the settlement with Extraction.

And did that contract did your estimates assume well, I guess, I'd ask what your estimates assume for the price of oil vis vis the revenue adds? Yeah. When we put this guidance together as we were working with our bank group, and it was less than $50 a barrel, we were below where the price adder is today. And if you were to reassess guidance, assuming current oil prices stay steady throughout the year, how would that change your guidance? Well, it wouldn't be lower.

Assuming understand. Assuming your volume estimates stay the same and assuming oil is where it is versus the below 50 that it was? Yes. Hard to answer. There's obviously a lot of things that go into putting together our guidance.

Just the crude price alone would have a benefit. As Mike said, it wouldn't be lower. Qualifying that right now would be difficult. Okay. On unrelated topic, given what New Mexico has said about using freshwater for drilling and fracking, Is there any opportunity for you to take the produced water that you currently dispose of in wells and recycle it and sell it back as frac water?

Speaker 2

Yes. We think that's a it's taking something that was a cost to us to dispose and turning it into a new revenue stream. That the producers, for the most part, we think, have developed the chemistry to be able to use the produced water. So we think that's a real growth area going forward. We're already selling produced water.

I don't know if we set that up separately in our financials.

Speaker 1

Not yet.

Speaker 2

Not yet. So we may that may be something we do so you can see how much it is.

Speaker 1

And do you have ongoing conversations with current customers or current drillers in the New Mexico area to explore that opportunity?

Speaker 2

Yes.

Speaker 1

And

Speaker 0

I would now like to turn the call back to Trey Karlovich for closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Trey, again, thank you, everybody, for joining us. This is an important quarter for the company. We've addressed, as we've mentioned, quite a few of the unknowns and uncertainties, gotten back on our front foot and looking forward to a successful fiscal twenty twenty two. Hope everybody stays safe and healthy.

Speaker 0

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.