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NIQ Global Intelligence plc (NIQ)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 revenue grew 7.2% to $1.053B with 5.8% organic constant currency (OCC) growth; Adjusted EBITDA rose 24.9% to $223.7M (margin 21.3%, +300 bps y/y), led by EMEA strength and value-based pricing plus cross-sell/up-sell .
  • Versus S&P Global consensus, revenue beat ($1.053B actual vs $1.039B estimate*) while adjusted EPS was below ($0.03 actual vs $0.072 estimate*); management nevertheless raised Q4 and FY25 guidance . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Free cash flow inflected: Q3 free cash flow (FCF) was $224.4M (vs $56.5M y/y), with operating cash flow of $272.2M; FY25 levered FCF guidance lifted to breakeven (up $20M vs prior midpoint) and H2 FCF expected at ~$280–$285M .
  • Capital structure improved: IPO and August refinancing lowered annualized interest by ~$100M; strong Q3 triggered an additional spread step-down worth ~$9M annual savings .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • EMEA-led growth and pricing power: EMEA revenue +10.9% reported (+8.8% OCC) drove outperformance; management cited “strong renewals, expansion… and cross-selling new capabilities,” with pricing a key contributor .
  • Margin and FCF inflection: Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 300 bps to 21.3% on AI-enabled efficiencies and GfK integration synergies; Q3 FCF surged to $224.4M as DSOs improved seven days q/q and interest expense declined .
  • Strategic positioning/AI: “AI is a powerful accelerator within the NIQ Ecosystem… widening and deepening our data moat, enhancing client outcomes, and driving operational efficiency” — CEO Jim Peck .

What Went Wrong

  • EPS vs Street: Adjusted EPS of $0.03 was below S&P Global consensus of ~$0.072*, despite revenue upside . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • APAC profitability pressure: APAC Adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 17% from 21% y/y; APAC Adjusted EBITDA declined 16% y/y, reflecting mix and ongoing investments .
  • One-time OpEx headwind: Expenses included a ~$50M one-time stock-based compensation catch-up related to the IPO, elevating OpEx in the quarter .

Financial Results

Headline metrics vs prior periods (oldest → newest):

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($M)$982.1 $1,040.8 $1,052.6
GAAP EPS ($)$(0.88) $(0.14) $(0.70)
Adjusted EPS ($)$(0.16) $(0.02) $0.03
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$179.1 $214.9 $223.7
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)18.2% 20.6% 21.3%

Results vs S&P Global consensus and forward context:

MetricQ3 2025 ActualQ3 2025 ConsensusResult vs Cons.Q4 2025 ConsensusFY 2025 Consensus
Revenue ($M)$1,052.6 $1,038.7*Beat$1,117.3*$4,170.5*
Adjusted/Primary EPS ($)$0.03 $0.0716*Miss$0.2910*$0.3470*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Cash flow and interest (quarterly):

MetricQ3 2024Q3 2025
Net Cash from Operating Activities ($M)$128.2 $272.2
Free Cash Flow ($M)$56.5 $224.4
Unlevered Free Cash Flow ($M)$159.9 $296.8
Cash Paid for Interest ($M)$103.4 $72.4

Segment breakdown (revenue):

SegmentQ3 2024 Rev ($M)Q3 2025 Rev ($M)Y/Y Reported GrowthY/Y OCC Growth
Americas383.1 403.3 5.3% 4.1%
EMEA427.3 473.8 10.9% 8.8%
APAC171.7 175.5 2.2% 2.3%
Intelligence794.3 855.3 7.7% 6.6%
Activation187.8 197.3 4.9% 2.3%

KPIs and operating metrics:

KPIQ3 2024Q3 2025
Annualized Intelligence Subscription Revenue ($M)—$2,797.5
Intelligence Subscription NDR (%)—105%
Intelligence Subscription GDR (%)—98%
Discover users (Y/Y)—+9% users; +29% data points consumed; +39% avg monthly data consumed

Notes: Adjusted EBITDA and EPS are non-GAAP; see reconciliations in 8-K exhibits .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (8/14/25)Current Guidance (11/13/25)Change
Revenue (as reported)Q4 2025Not previously provided$1,116M–$1,119M —
Revenue (as reported)FY 2025$4,137M–$4,145M $4,175M–$4,178M Raised
Revenue Growth (as reported)Q4 2025Not previously provided7.0%–7.3% —
Revenue Growth (OCC)Q4 2025Not previously provided5.0%–5.3% —
Revenue Growth (OCC)FY 20255.2%–5.4% 5.5%–5.6% Raised
Adjusted EBITDA ($)Q4 2025Not previously provided$277M–$281M —
Adjusted EBITDA ($)FY 2025$877M–$884M $905M–$909M Raised
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)Q4 2025Not previously provided24.8%–25.1% —
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)FY 202521.2%–21.3% 21.7%–21.8% Raised
Free Cash Flow ($)Q4 2025Not previously provided$55M–$60M —
Free Cash Flow ($)FY 2025($35M)–($5M) Breakeven Raised

Management cited AI-driven efficiencies and GfK integration as drivers of margin upgrades and FCF improvement .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
AI/Technology initiativesQ2: Launched/expanded BASES AI Screener to 10 countries/89 categories; acquired Gastrograph AI; Digital Shelf expanded to 70 markets . Q1: n/a (financials reported; no Q1 call available) .CEO: “AI…widening and deepening our data moat…driving operational efficiency”; NextIQ engine; Ask Arthur Copilot; 18 large clients added; 500 product concepts tested in Q3 .Strengthening
Product performanceQ2: Intelligence OCC +7.5%; Annualized Intelligence Subscription +6.9% to $2,772M .Intelligence OCC +6.6%; Annualized Intelligence Subscription +6.6% to $2,797.5M; Activation +2.3% OCC .Steady growth
Regional trendsQ2: EMEA +8.1% OCC, Americas +5.4% OCC; APAC +0.6% OCC .EMEA +8.8% OCC; Americas +4.1% OCC; APAC +2.3% OCC .EMEA improving
Supply chain/expansionQ2: Entered supply chain via M‑Trix acquisition .Continued execution; new Wakefern data-sharing deal; Sally Beauty renewal .Broadening
Capital structure & interestQ2: IPO and refinancing → ~$100M annual interest savings .Additional $9M annual savings from spread step-down; cash $446M, $750M revolver available .Improving
Regulatory/legalForward-looking mentions material weaknesses risk; standard risk factors .Similar risk disclosures reiterated .Neutral

Management Commentary

  • “Q3 was another strong quarter… 5.8% organic constant currency revenue growth, 21% margins up 300 basis points, and $224 million of levered-free cash flow… We’ve raised our 2025 outlook” — CEO Jim Peck .
  • “AI is a powerful accelerator within the NIQ Ecosystem… strategic advantage that positions NIQ for long-term growth” — CEO Jim Peck .
  • “Adjusted EBITDA… $223.7 million… margin [up] 300 basis points to 21.3%… we now expect to deliver $280 million of levered-free cash flow in the second half of 2025” — CFO Mike Burwell .
  • “Our strong Q3 performance triggered another interest spread step-down, generating an additional $9 million of annual interest savings” — CFO Mike Burwell .

Q&A Highlights

  • Pipeline and Activation visibility: Q4 activation is seasonally strong as clients spend remaining budgets; pipeline visibility is “very good,” supporting Q4 revenue and margin guide .
  • EMEA panel-on-demand and integration: EMEA growth aided by consumer panel “panel on demand” and GfK tech & durables turnaround; NIQ uniquely combines measurement and panel in one platform .
  • AI-driven efficiencies and synergies: AI automates data ops and coding; combined with GfK integration, this is a key driver of margin expansion into 2026 .
  • Working capital and DSOs: DSOs improved seven days q/q, contributing to Q3 FCF outperformance; Q2 timing issues resolved post system integration .
  • Americas growth cadence: Slight y/y OCC deceleration tied to tough comps (9% y/y in Q3’24); recent U.S. panel launch (500k consumers) expected to support acceleration into Q4/2026 .

Estimates Context

  • Revenue exceeded S&P Global consensus ($1.053B actual vs $1.039B estimate*); adjusted/Primary EPS of $0.03 was below ~$0.072* consensus . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Street models may need to reflect higher FY25 revenue and margin (raised guides) and Q4 FCF; EPS trajectory will depend on Q4 execution and any residual one-offs (e.g., IPO-related SBC) highlighted by management .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Execution and pricing power: OCC growth of 5.8% with pricing and cross-sell the core drivers; EMEA continues to lead .
  • Margin trajectory intact/upgraded: 300 bps y/y expansion in Q3 and Q4 guide implies ~25% margin, with further expansion targeted in 2026 via AI and integration synergies .
  • FCF inflection is real: Q3 FCF of $224M and FY25 breakeven guide (H2 ~$280–$285M) materially de-risk the balance sheet path and support de-levering .
  • EPS vs consensus: Despite revenue outperformance, adjusted EPS missed S&P consensus this quarter*, a point to watch into Q4 printing . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Segment mix: Intelligence (subscription) remains the engine (+6.6% OCC); Activation improved and has seasonal tailwinds in Q4 .
  • Regional lens: EMEA momentum (panel on demand, GfK T&D turnaround) remains a key bull pillar; APAC margin investment continues .
  • Capital structure tailwinds: ~$100M interest savings from IPO/refi plus ~$9M spread step-down should keep lowering interest burden, aiding FCF conversion .

Appendix: Additional Data

Nine-month (YTD) snapshot:

  • Revenue: $3,059.3M (+4.4% y/y)
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $627.3M (+21.0% y/y)
  • Net cash from operations: $110.0M (vs $5.6M prior year)

Reorg/IPO context:

  • Balance sheet at Q3: Cash $446.3M; Long-term debt $3,501.5M; Available revolver capacity $750M .
  • Warrant reclassified from liability to equity post-IPO; reduces P&L volatility from remeasurement .

Non-GAAP policy and adjustments:

  • Adjustments include transformation costs, GfK integration costs, acquisition/transaction costs, FX, nonoperating items (e.g., warrant remeasurement, debt issuance cost write-offs), and SBC .