New Jersey Resources - Q3 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Hello, and welcome to the New Jersey Resources Fiscal 2023 third quarter conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, press star one on your telephone keypad. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Adam Prior of New Jersey Resources. Please go ahead.

Adam Prior (Director of Investor Relations)

Thank you, operator. Welcome to New Jersey Resources fiscal 2023 third quarter conference call and webcast. I'm joined here today by Stephen Westhoven, our President and CEO, Roberto Bel, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, as well as other members of our senior management team. Certain statements in today's call contain estimates and other forward-looking statements within the meaning of the securities laws. We wish to caution listeners of this call that the current expectations, assumptions, and beliefs forming the basis of our forward-looking statements include many factors that are beyond our ability to control or estimate precisely. This could cause results to materially differ from our expectations, as found on slide 1.

These items can also be found in the forward-looking statements section of today's earnings release, furnished on Form 8-K and in our most recent Form 10-K and Form 10-Q, as filed with the SEC. We do not, by including this statement, assume any obligation to review or revise any particular forward-looking statement referenced herein in light of future events. We'll also be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures, such as net financial earnings, or NFE. We believe that NFE, net financial loss, utility gross margin, financial margin, adjusted funds from operations, and adjusted debt provide a more complete understanding of our financial performance. However, these non-GAAP measures are not intended to be a substitute for GAAP. Our non-GAAP financial measures are discussed more fully in Item 7 of our Form 10-K.

The slides accompanying today's presentation are available on our website and were furnished on our Form 8-K filed this morning. Our agenda for today is found on slide 3. Stephen will begin with this quarter's highlights, followed by Roberto, who will review our financial results, then we'll open it up for your questions. With that said, I will turn the call over to our President and CEO, Stephen Westhoven. Please go ahead, Stephen.

Stephen Westhoven (CEO)

Thanks, Adam. Good morning, everyone. We had another solid quarter at NJR as our complementary portfolio of businesses continued to perform in line with our expectations. We remain on track to achieve our fiscal 2023 NFEPS guidance range of $2.62-$2.72 per share. We reported net financial earnings of $0.10 per share in the third quarter of this year and $2.40 per share year to date. To summarize a few highlights, New Jersey Natural Gas added over 1,800 new customers during the quarter, with our growth rate now beginning to return to pre-pandemic levels. We are proud that New Jersey Natural Gas has been recognized by Escalent as one of their 2023 most trusted utility brands.

Clean Energy Ventures continued its strong momentum, increasing its in-service capacity and growing its project pipeline to the highest level in our company's history. At S&T, we reported strong year-over-year revenue growth. Finally, Energy Services improved its NFE year-over-year, driven by continued contribution from the AMA and strong performance from our long option strategy during the quarter. Turning to slide five, as I noted earlier, we are reiterating our fiscal 2023 NFEPS guidance range of $2.62 per share-$2.72 per share. Earlier this year, we raised our guidance by $0.20, driven by outperformance at Energy Services during Winter Storm Elliott in December 2022.

Our long-term NFEPS growth range remains at 7%-9% from our original 2022 guidance, and we expect to be at the higher end of that range for fiscal 2024. New Jersey Natural Gas had a strong quarter, as highlighted on slide 6. We invested $315 million at New Jersey Natural Gas during the first nine months of fiscal 2023, with approximately 40% of that CapEx providing near real-time returns. We've added nearly 5,900 new customers this year compared to approximately 5,300 customers during the same period last year, through a combination of new construction and conversions. In June, we filed our annual rate adjustments. We were once again able to provide cost savings to our customers, effective this coming winter. This is in addition to the rate decrease in bill credits provided in March of this year.

Our team works hard to manage supply costs, and we are pleased to pass these savings on to our customers. As indicated on prior calls, we expect to file our next rate case in fiscal 2024, consistent with the timeline of our major technology investments. Moving to slide 7, the team at Clean Energy Ventures continues to grow its project pipeline and has made great progress increasing the size of its portfolio. We have added 75 MW of new solar capacity since the start of fiscal 2023. This represents the largest capacity increase in any fiscal year since CEV's inception. We continue to expand geographically. Since the start of the year, approximately 40% of our capacity growth has come outside the state of New Jersey. This includes two operating assets in Michigan and Indiana that added 21 MW to our in-service capacity in July.

Operational asset acquisitions have proven successful for us in the past. We target projects with strong offtake that offer performance optimization and future organic growth opportunities. The operations and maintenance team at CEV does an excellent job ensuring our projects perform to the highest operational standards. In fact, our portfolio typically performs at over 99% availability, a significant advantage for us as an organization and a testament to the focus of the team at CEV. Finally, our project pipeline continues to grow and now includes over 750 MW of potential investment options, which is the highest in CEV's history. With that, I'll turn the call over to Roberto to review our financial results. Roberto?

Roberto Bel (SVP and CFO)

Thank you, Stephen, and good morning, everyone. Slide nine shows the main drivers of our NFE for the third quarter and year-to-date of fiscal 2023. For the first nine months, we have reported strong year-over-year improvement in our consolidated results, with NFE of $232.3 million, or $2.40 per share, compared with $192.4 million, or $2 per share last year. This represents a 20% improvement in our net financial earnings per share for the period. For the third quarter, we reported NFE of $9.7 million, or $0.10 per share, compared with a net financial loss of $3.6 million or $0.04 per share last year.

The quarterly results of our business segments were consistent with our expectations, generally reflecting a year-over-year improvement in margins at NJNG and Energy Services and in revenues at CEV and S&T, offset by higher depreciation and interest expenses. The largest difference compared to Q3 of last year was from the benefit that CEV derived from the successful resolution of an income tax valuation allowance. This benefit was included in our current NFE guidance for the year. Turning to our capital plan on slide 10, for fiscal year 2023, we're slightly tightening our overall CapEx range while keeping the midpoint unchanged. At a business unit level, we expect modest CapEx increases at NJNG and S&P, offset by a reduction in the top end of the CEV CapEx range. We'll update our CapEx expectations for fiscal years 2024 and 2025 in our year-end conference call in November.

Our capital projections are anchored by strong cash flows from operations. On slide 11, we show our updated projections for fiscal year 2023. As you can see, we expect operating cash flow to range between $400 million and $420 million. This improvement from our previously stated range is mainly due to higher earnings and a positive impact that lower gas prices had on our working capital requirements. Our credit metric projections for fiscal 2023 have improved in tandem with our operating cash flows, which are shown on slide 12. We now project NJR's adjusted FFO to adjusted debt, our preferred credit metric, to be between 19%-20% for the year, while NJNG maintains a favorable investment-grade credit rating.

While we have no plans to issue block equity, our existing dividend reinvestment program includes a waiver discount feature that allows us to raise equity on an opportunistic basis. With that, I will turn the call back to Stephen.

Stephen Westhoven (CEO)

Thanks, Roberto. We've been proactive in our discussions with the governor's office concerning the executive orders made public several months ago. This week, the New Jersey BPU is holding a technical conference to discuss Executive Order No. 317. We have initiatives in place to align with the state's decarbonization goals and are actively participating in this conference, which is happening in real time. Governor Murphy has made clear his strategy to build a clean energy economy that will drive job growth and create new investment opportunities. A number of the governor's priorities are directly aligned with the strategy that we've been pursuing for more than a decade. In closing, NJR is an energy infrastructure company focused on meeting the needs of our customers while transitioning to a clean energy future.

Our capital investments and our efforts to develop organic growth opportunities are supportive of our peer-leading long-term and EPS growth targets. As always, I want to thank all of our employees for all their hard work and contribution. With that, I'll now open the call for questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. If you have a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, simply press star one again. Your first question comes from the line of Robert Mosca with Mizuho. Your line is open.

Robert Mosca (Analyst)

Hi, good morning, everyone.

Stephen Westhoven (CEO)

Good morning.

Robert Mosca (Analyst)

Just hoping to get your thoughts on the NJBPU's staff recommendation on the CSI solicitation process. Was this an outcome you guys expected, and does it change your strategy at all in terms of scoping projects in New Jersey or, or your overall growth outlook for CEV?

Stephen Westhoven (CEO)

You know, with any new program, there should be a little bit of a learning curve, and I think the state is going through, you know, that learning curve right now. You know, certainly the state has been very committed to clean energy. So they'll get these, you know, programs worked out, and they'll get the projects awarded. The Governor certainly has made his commitment to clean energy loud and clear in the state. Just turning to how it may impact us, it's not going to. You know, as you know, we've got a large pipeline of projects. 40% of those projects are outside the state.

You know, we started to diversify a number of years ago, making investments outside of the state of New Jersey just because the size of the capital program and being able to reliably predict when we'd be able to make those investments. You know, it was important in having diversification outside the state. It's important to be able to achieve the, the goals that we've stated.

All in all, it doesn't change our strategy, still moving forward. you know, got a large pipeline of projects, and 40% are outside of the state. But we still feel very confident the state is committed to clean energy and their clean energy goals, and, and they'll get these programs, you know, worked out in the near future.

Robert Mosca (Analyst)

Thanks. Appreciate it, Stephen. Maybe with another quarter of Adelphia operations under your belt, any early indications on whether you can optimize certain segments of the pipe to accommodate volumes above its existing load? Maybe can we also get your latest thoughts on a potential Leaf River expansion?

Stephen Westhoven (CEO)

I think it's too soon to say anything about the optimization of Adelphia Gateway. You know, certainly we're learning the asset as a new gas pipeline. Remember, the northern portion was natural gas for some time, but it had a single use customer up in the northern portion of it. The southern portion just came into commercial operation this past fall. Still learning that, but I would expect in the future that there would be some optimization associated with it. You know, all along, you know, our target for making these investments throughout our company is for organic growth, being able to grow the assets that we have. Certainly there's an expectation to do that in the future. Nothing to announce on Leaf River. Still working on, you know, potential expansions down in that area.

You know, very constructive environment with all the LNG that's being built and the volatility that they're experiencing, down in that region. When we do, you know, come to terms on, on something, we'll certainly make an announcement. Again, nothing to announce at this point, but a constructive market down in that region.

Robert Mosca (Analyst)

Thanks for the time, everyone.

Stephen Westhoven (CEO)

Thanks, Rob.

Operator (participant)

Once again, ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question, it is star one on your telephone keypad. Your next question comes from the line of Travis Miller with Morningstar. Your line is open.

Travis Miller (Analyst)

Good morning, everyone. Thank you.

Stephen Westhoven (CEO)

Hey, Travis.

Travis Miller (Analyst)

Just following on that conversation that you were having on the Governor's Office and all the debates and, and discussion around the clean energy stuff. What's your thinking in terms of when some of these discussions get into actual regulatory proposals, project proposals, regulatory filings? What's your thought in terms of the timeline? Would any of this make it into the next rate case filing, or is there something beyond that? Does that make sense, the kind of timing?

Stephen Westhoven (CEO)

Well, I guess, are, are you talking about the New Jersey clean energy? Are you talking about the solar solicitation, or are you talking about some of the regulatory proceedings that are taking place around the second quarter of clean energy?

Travis Miller (Analyst)

Yeah, more around the clean energy. The latter, yeah. Not as much the solar stuff. Yeah.

Stephen Westhoven (CEO)

I think with the clean energy, you've, you've got, you know, kind of multiple discussions taking place currently. Predicting when those are going to come to conclusion, and when ultimately they would, you know, fall into policy and then ultimately into rates, I think it's very hard to predict at this point in time. I think it's safe to say there's a lot of discussion that still needs to take place before that would happen. You know, just as a general comment, you know, we've talked about decarbonization, you know, how we're reducing emissions here at NJR, you know, New Jersey Natural Gas, and how we're going to continue forward in this path to be able to deliver cleaner fuels to our customers.

You know, everyone knows, you know, about our hydrogen plan, you know, our energy efficiency programs, and, and certainly, you know, our thoughts about the future, that we're going to continue to press this forward. We feel good in this alignment with the Governor's, you know, stated goals and certainly the state, state goals as well. I think, you know, when those all will come to basically become part of regulation, you know, unpredictable at this point in time, but we look forward to it. I, I think we're going to align nicely, you know, with, you know, the future goals of the state.

Travis Miller (Analyst)

Okay, sure. Remind me again, some of that will make it into the next rate case filing, though, especially on the hydrogen side. Is that correct?

Stephen Westhoven (CEO)

Well, our hydrogen plan, remember, was already included in rates in our last rate case, you know, which was, you know, big support, you know, by the state, and it showed that they're, they're supportive of clean energy and clean fuels.

Travis Miller (Analyst)

Okay, okay. And then on the solar side, any updates in terms of changes in supply, ability to get supply panels or, costs? Anything along those lines?

Stephen Westhoven (CEO)

Yeah, nothing, nothing to add there. You know, it's business as usual. You know, you see that we're bringing, you know, projects to completion and putting them into service. You know, 75 megawatts in service, you know, this fiscal year. Just moving forward and continuing to execute on the plan. Really nothing to, to talk about there.

Travis Miller (Analyst)

Okay, great. That's all I had. Thanks so much.

Stephen Westhoven (CEO)

All right. Thanks, Travis.

Operator (participant)

Once again, ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, it is star one on your telephone keypad. There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Adam Prior for closing remarks.

Stephen Westhoven (CEO)

Well, thanks, everyone. I would like to thank all of you for joining us this morning. As a reminder, a recording of this call is available for replay on our website. As always, we appreciate your interest and investment in NJR. Goodbye.

Operator (participant)

This concludes today's conference call. We thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.