Total Revenue Q3 2023

Decrease of $564 million (from $8,510 million to $7,946 million)

Lower retail revenue dropped by $337 million and energy revenue fell by $189 million due to lower natural gas and power prices, with a further negative impact from a $103 million mark‐to‐market loss, partially offset by a $21 million increase in capacity revenue. " " "

Total Revenue Q3 2024

Decrease of $723 million (from $7,946 million to $7,223 million)

Driven by a nearly $567 million decline in retail revenue, a $133 million drop in energy revenue, and an $86 million reduction in other revenues, despite a $78 million improvement in mark‐to‐market adjustments. " "

Operating Income Q3 2023

Increase of $405 million (from $156 million to $561 million)

Improved cost management resulted from lower Texas retail supply costs, approximately $50 million in property damage insurance recoveries, and a reduction of $991 million in operating costs and expenses compared to the previous period. " " " "

Operating Income Q3 2024

Swing from an income of $561 million to a loss of $(812) million

The dramatic shift was primarily due to higher unrealized non-cash MtM losses on economic hedges driven by decreased ERCOT forward power prices, which outweighed other positive factors like the gain from the sale of the Airtron HVAC business. " " "

Net Income Q3 2023

Increase of $276 million (from $67 million to $343 million)

The rise in net income was largely due to lower retail supply costs in Texas and $50 million in property damage insurance recoveries, even as contributions from the services business declined and incentive plan accruals increased relative to the previous period. "

Net Income Q3 2024

Decline from $343 million to a net loss of $(767) million

Significant losses from unrealized non-cash MtM losses on economic hedges—linked to lower forward power prices—were the primary drivers, partially offset by a gain from the sale of the Airtron business. "

Basic EPS Q3 2023

Substantial improvement (aligned with the increase in net income from $67 million to $343 million)

The notable increase was driven by higher net income, improved operating income via cost reductions (including a $991 million decrease in operating expenses), and the impact of operational synergies from the Vivint Smart Home acquisition despite higher interest and tax expenses. " "

Basic EPS Q3 2024

Drop from $1.42 in Q3 2023 to $(3.79) in Q3 2024

A massive $1.63 billion MtM loss on commodity hedges, combined with the net loss of $(767) million and the effect of cumulative dividends on Series A Preferred Stock, resulted in a severe decline in Basic EPS. " " "

Diluted EPS Q3 2023

Increase from $0.29 in Q3 2022 to $1.41 in Q3 2023

Improved net income (from $67 million to $343 million) along with better cost management—including a reduction in operating costs—boosted diluted EPS, despite higher interest and tax expenses. " "

Diluted EPS Q3 2024

Decline from $1.41 in Q3 2023 to $(3.79) in Q3 2024

The sharp decline was primarily due to the $1.63 billion unrealized MtM loss on economic hedges, further compounded by non-recurring charges and cumulative preferred dividends that contributed to the net loss of $(767) million. " "

Cost of Goods Sold Q3 2023

Decrease of $1.38 billion (from $7.8 billion to $6.42 billion)

The reduction stemmed from lower purchased energy and other costs (a decrease of $895 million), a $342 million drop in fuel costs, and a $139 million improvement from MtM hedging adjustments compared to the previous period. " " "

Cost of Goods Sold Q3 2024

Significant increase from Q3 2023 levels

A $1,655 million increase in MtM losses on economic hedges, along with a $17 million rise in retail operations costs, an additional $35 million in planned maintenance expenditures, and the absence of a $51 million cost reduction from insurance claims experienced in Q3 2023, drove the increase. " " "

Interest Expense Q3 2023

Increase of $68 million for Q3 (and $159 million over nine months)

The rise was primarily attributable to costs related to the Vivint Smart Home acquisition, including the issuance of new debt (Senior Secured First Lien Notes), borrowings on the Revolving Credit Facility, and write-offs of deferred financing costs tied to the acquisition, compared to prior periods. " "

Interest Expense Q3 2024

Increase of $40 million compared to Q3 2023

Unrealized losses on interest rate swaps—stemming from a shift from previously recognized gains to losses—accounted for the additional $40 million in interest expense in Q3 2024 relative to Q3 2023. "

Adjusted EPS

FY 2025

Range: $6.75–$7.75, midpoint $7.25 "

Target ranges reaffirmed; specific figures not disclosed " "

no change

Adjusted Net Income

FY 2025

Range: $1.33B–$1.53B, midpoint $1.43B "

Target ranges reaffirmed; specific figures not disclosed " "

no change

Adjusted EBITDA

FY 2025

Range: $3.725B–$3.975B, midpoint $3.85B "

Target ranges reaffirmed; specific figures not disclosed "

no change

Free Cash Flow Before Growth

FY 2025

Range: $1.975B–$2.225B, midpoint $2.1B "

Target ranges reaffirmed; specific figures not disclosed "

no change

EPS CAGR

Long-Term

no prior guidance

At least 10% compound annual growth through 2029, driven by $750M run-rate adjusted EBITDA growth and $8.8B capital returned over five years " "

no prior guidance

Data Center Demand

In Q1, discussions focused on early-stage customer engagements, rising power demand driven by Gen AI, and plans to explore data center site potential. " " " In Q2, multiple bids were received though the company paused for a strategic review. " Q3 emphasized significant growth in Texas/PJM with an 8‐GW queue highlighting structural load growth. " "

Q4 highlights an accelerated data center demand driven by AI, industrial expansion, and electrification trends. The narrative includes a “power demand super cycle” with key markets like ERCOT and PJM taking center stage along with multiple LOIs securing long‐term contracts. " "

Consistently positive emphasis with an acceleration in demand and stronger long-term contracting as the market matures.

Hyperscaler Engagement

Q1 mentioned early stage discussions with hyperscalers and initial customer interactions. Q2 saw reassessment of inbound bids, while Q3 explored opportunities by directing shovel-ready projects to hyperscalers. " " "

Q4 emphasizes that hyperscalers are now reaffirming or expanding their capital commitments, with multiple LOIs signed with data center developers – reflecting a more advanced and confident engagement. " "

Progressing from early exploration to strengthened, concrete commitments that reduce uncertainty and increase execution certainty.

Large-Scale Generation Capacity Expansion

Q1 noted 1.5 GW shovel-ready projects and highlighted the economic attractiveness of new builds. " " Q2 focused on advancing 1.5 GW brownfield natural gas projects and discussed challenges in PJM interconnection. " " Q3 underscored significant capacity opportunities in Texas along with a broad site portfolio. "

Q4 sets a clear target of 5.4 GW by 2032, reinforced by slot reservation agreements with GE Vernova and explicit development plans – demonstrating robust capacity expansion with integrated partnerships. "

An intensified focus with more concrete capacity targets and partnership-driven execution, indicating confidence in future growth.

Strategic Partnerships

Q1 discussed a flexible integrated model to evaluate colocation and partnership options. " " Q2 emphasized a “supply optimal” mix and site portfolio development. Q3 introduced innovative alliances such as a VPP partnership with Renew Home and Google Nest to optimize capacity. " "

Q4 reinforces strategic alliances by finalizing collaborations with GE Vernova and Kiewit, with commitments such as slot reservation agreements and a focus on speed and certainty in delivery. " " "

The approach has steadily evolved from exploratory arrangements to robust, formalized partnerships that enhance project execution and market differentiation.

Capital Expenditures & Financing Pressures

Q1 highlighted concerns about rising operational costs, potential EPA-driven CapEx, and early discussions on financing modifications. " " Q2 and Q3 provided limited detail, with high-level commentary on financial flexibility and share repurchases. "

Q4 details a structured strategy using leveraged partner contracts and strong internal cash flows, along with a defined capital allocation plan (including share repurchases and liability management). Notably, an executive humorously mentioned bonus forfeiture if needed. " "

Discussion has shifted from brief mentions to a more detailed and structured approach in managing financing pressures and capital allocation for growth projects.

Long-Term Contracting Strategy vs. Merchant Risk Exposure

Q1 referenced an integrated model and hedging programs without strong emphasis. Q2 was clear about avoiding speculative merchant builds and exploring PPAs. Q3 stressed that long-term contracts, particularly from data centers, were important to mitigate merchant risk. " " " " "

Q4 clearly states a preference for ensuring the vast majority of new capacity is fully contracted, with an explicit intent to avoid significant merchant risk by relying on long-term agreements with C&I, retail, and data center customers. "

There is a noticeable progression towards a strategy that strongly favors long-term contracts, reducing exposure to volatile merchant markets.

Power Price Volatility & Margin Management

Q1 discussed a flexible integrated model with strong hedging that increased margins despite rising prices, providing key insights into price sensitivity. " " " " Q2 noted that elevated volatility was factored into flexible asset valuation. Q3 observed that operational flexibility (e.g., cycling generation) helped manage margins in a less volatile Texas market. "

Q4 elaborates on improved forward pricing in ERCOT and strategic contract structuring that locks in revenue rates ($70–$90 per MWh). The discussions emphasize the use of an integrated platform to capture higher margins even under conditions of moderate power price volatility. " " "

Consistent focus on managing volatility with increasingly sophisticated strategies that optimize margins and leverage contractual structures.

Smart Home & Retail Energy Growth

Q1 showcased strong growth with increases in subscribers and active plans for protection products. " " Q2 pointed to consistent subscriber growth, high retention rates, and revenue growth. Q3 reinforced the importance of Smart Home EBITDA and strong market share in retail energy complemented by bundled offerings. " " "

Q4 confirms continued robust performance with healthy subscriber growth, near-90% retention, and expansion into markets like Lubbock. There is no evidence of declining emphasis; rather, the segment remains a key growth driver. " "

Steady and consistently strong growth across periods – the narrative remains positive and integral to the company's value proposition.

Supply Chain & Interconnection Challenges

Q2 identified significant challenges including a deep, slow interconnection queue in PJM and global supply chain constraints that could delay projects past 2030. " Q1 and Q3 did not emphasize these issues.

Q4 reiterates persistent challenges with limited turbine availability, human resource constraints within thermal development teams, and varying interconnection speeds (with Texas performing better than PJM). " "

Ongoing challenges remain a consistent concern, with Q4 confirming that these issues persist despite some regional differences; the focus remains largely on operational delays.

Regulatory and Regional Market Risks

Q1 mentioned regulatory risks, particularly regarding EPA guidelines possibly influencing CapEx decisions, while Q2 discussed minor regional adjustments in the Northeast and PJM market structure with minimal overall impact. " " Q3 did not specifically highlight this topic.

Q4 contains no explicit references, suggesting that regulatory and regional risks have become less of a focal point compared to earlier periods [—].

The topic has receded in emphasis in the current period, indicating that management now considers these risks to be less immediate or disruptive compared to earlier discussions.

Profitability Metrics

Q1 provided early details on transitioning to detailed EPS and free cash flow guidance, emphasizing strong hedging and margin performance. Q2 reaffirmed guidance ranges for free cash flow and discussed steps toward more comprehensive EPS disclosures. Q3 raised adjusted EPS and free cash flow guidance based on improved performance. " " "

Q4 reported 2024 adjusted EPS at $6.83 (45% higher YoY) and free cash flow before growth exceeding guidance, with robust 2025 and longer-term targets reaffirmed. The narrative strongly underscores improved financial performance and shareholder returns. " " "

Consistent and upward revisions in profitability metrics, reflecting strong performance improvements and ongoing commitment to shareholder capital returns.