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    NORFOLK SOUTHERN (NSC)

    Q2 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jan 10, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$222.90Last close (Jul 25, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$242.00Open (Jul 26, 2024)
    Price Change
    $19.10(+8.57%)
    • Norfolk Southern is executing on a multi-year plan to reduce its Operating Ratio to below 60%, demonstrating strong commitment to improving efficiency and profitability despite a weak freight environment.
    • The company is achieving significant operational improvements, driving productivity gains and cost reductions, including a commitment to take out $450 million in costs, which is accelerating improvements and allowing the company to reaffirm its guidance even amidst market weaknesses.
    • NSC is experiencing growth in its most service-sensitive markets, such as Automotive (up 7%) and Intermodal (up 8%), due to improved service product and alignment between marketing and operations, indicating strong customer support and potential for volume growth.
    • Norfolk Southern lowered its full-year revenue growth guidance from approximately 3% to approximately 1%, citing continuing market headwinds.
    • The company is facing increased labor costs due to contractual wage increases effective July 1, resulting in a $25 million step-up in compensation and benefits in the third quarter, equating to an 80 basis points sequential operating ratio headwind. Additionally, fuel costs are expected to be a headwind of 50-60 basis points.
    • Norfolk Southern has lost market share in its merchandise segment over an extended period and acknowledges the need to earn back customers, which could pressure revenues and margins.
    1. Operating Ratio Guidance and Cost Savings
      Q: Why aren't bigger OR improvements expected despite cost initiatives?
      A: Despite revenue headwinds and an expected $25 million wage increase in Q3 [1], we're confident in achieving a second-half OR of 64% to 65%, driven by productivity gains and operational improvements [1][2]. Headwinds from wage increases and fuel costs total about 140 basis points [2][3].

    2. Intermodal Yields and Volume Outlook
      Q: Have intermodal yields bottomed? When will they improve?
      A: Intermodal yields are likely at the bottom, with mix and price causing 6 to 7 points of weakness [0]. We expect stability in the second half and are nearing an inflection point, as customers anticipate a real peak season this year [0].

    3. Service Improvements and Regaining Merchandise Share
      Q: How will you win back lost merchandise volume?
      A: By leveraging our improved service and increased capacity, we're focused on providing customers with reliability and cost savings [11]. Even in a challenging freight environment, our enhanced service is attracting customers back from the highway [11].

    4. Impact of East Coast Port Labor Issues
      Q: How are East Coast port actions affecting customer behavior?
      A: With the ILA contract expiring on September 30, shippers are hedging by increasing activity on the West Coast [9]. We anticipate higher demand for domestic intermodal from the West Coast, as steamship lines may limit inland movements [9].

    5. STB Hearings and Regulatory Impact
      Q: How might STB changes affect your operations?
      A: The STB is focused on service, aligning with our strategy [4]. Recent meetings reinforced our business plan and the importance of resiliency in driving the U.S. economy [4].

    6. Productivity Initiatives and Headcount Reductions
      Q: Will headcount reduce further with operational progress?
      A: While T&E headcount is down 2%, this isn't a headcount reduction exercise [5]. We're rightsizing service and aligning asset efficiencies, focusing on reducing waste without impacting service [5][6]. We're on track to be down 2% by year-end versus last year [5].

    7. Coal Yield Expectations
      Q: Are coal yields expected to decline in the back half?
      A: Coal rates are expected to continue drifting slightly lower [8]. While slight gains occurred due to global disruptions, those have mostly eroded [8].

    8. Land Sales and Financial Impact
      Q: Should we factor land sales into the OR outlook?
      A: Large land gains are not part of the OR path forward [8]. We typically guide to $30 million to $40 million a year in real estate gains absorbed within the OR [8].

    9. Opportunities in Mexico and Nearshoring
      Q: Do you see new opportunities from Mexico's nearshoring trend?
      A: Yes, we're discussing opportunities with Grupo Mexico and CPKC, including connecting Mexico to the Southeast via the Meridian Speedway [13]. With manufacturing shifting to Mexico, we anticipate growth in this area [13][14].

    10. Future Operating Ratio Improvements
      Q: Does current productivity set up better future OR improvements?
      A: We're executing a multiyear plan to reduce OR to below 60% [14]. Current productivity gains, despite a weak freight environment, position us for accelerating OR improvements in coming years [14].

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