NSSC Q3 2025: Recurring revenue rises to 49%, fuels buybacks
- Robust recurring revenue growth: The company’s recurring revenue—which now accounts for nearly 49% of total revenue and is bolstered by its popular StarLink radio line—is expanding further as new cloud-based products are introduced, setting the stage for higher recurring revenue contributions.
- Competitive tariff advantage: With a significant portion of manufacturing based in the Dominican Republic, the company benefits from the lowest tariffs compared to competitors sourcing from Southeast Asia and other regions, allowing it to maintain pricing flexibility and safeguard margins.
- Strong cash flow and shareholder returns: Healthy cash flow conversion enables the company to aggressively pursue capital allocation through share repurchases and increased dividends, reflecting management’s confidence in sustained financial performance even during challenging market conditions.
- Distributor inventory caution and sell-through uncertainty: Distributors are exhibiting hesitancy by managing their inventories tightly amid tariff concerns and past large project downturns, which could lead to slower replenishment and impact dealer access to NSSC products.
- Tariff-driven price surcharges affecting demand: The implementation of an 8.5% surcharge to cover tariffs, coupled with expectations of additional price increases later, may pressure customer purchasing decisions and margin performance.
- Slower-than-anticipated traction for new product launches: New offerings such as the PRIMA product have not yet reached targeted volume expectations, indicating challenges in driving immediate recurring revenue from emerging product lines.
| Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
|---|---|---|
Total Revenue | -10.8% ( ) | The overall decline from $49.27M to $43.961M is largely driven by reduced equipment sales and domestic revenue, reflecting ongoing distributor issues and timing challenges seen in prior periods, even as growing services revenue provided partial offset. ( ) |
Intrusion and Access Alarm Revenue | -20% ( ) | The drop from $10.14M to $8.049M can be attributed to lingering effects of inventory adjustments and reduced demand for intrusion products that were evident in earlier periods. ( ) |
Door Locking Devices Revenue | -27% ( ) | Decline from $19.60M to $14.302M is primarily due to reduced purchases by major distributors and the timing delays of custom locking projects, a continuation of challenges observed in previous quarters. ( ) |
Services Revenue | +11% ( ) | The increase from $19.53M to $21.610M is driven by robust growth in recurring revenue from cellular (fire) radios, building on the positive trends from past periods and benefiting from high service margins. ( ) |
Domestic Revenue | -13% ( ) | The reduction from $50.06M to $43.482M reflects overall equipment revenue weaknesses in the domestic market, compounded by distributor challenges and market slowdowns, a trend consistent with earlier periods. ( ) |
Foreign Revenue | Increase from $0.27M to $0.479M ( ) | Although the absolute increase is minor, it signals a relative improvement possibly driven by favorable market conditions abroad in contrast to domestic challenges. ( ) |
Gross Profit | -5% ( ) | The slight decline from $26,484K to $25,127K results from improved margins in the services segment being offset by lower margins and reduced volume in equipment sales, following the mixed trends observed in previous periods. ( ) |
Operating Income | -23% ( ) | A fall from $14,494K to $11,146K reflects significant pressure from declining equipment revenues and rising operating expenses, such as higher R&D and SG&A costs—continuing cost challenges noted in earlier periods. ( ) |
Net Income | -23% ( ) | Net income dropped from $13,196K to $10,122K largely due to reduced operating income driven by lower equipment sales and increased expenses, despite strong recurring service performance, mirroring patterns from previous periods. ( ) |
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Equipment Tariffs
Q: How are tariffs impacting equipment revenue?
A: Management explained that equipment sales declined due to distributors cutting orders amid tariff concerns, yet healthy sell‐through statistics and low‑tariff manufacturing in the Dominican Republic position them well to recover. -
Price Surcharge
Q: What surcharge was implemented to cover tariffs?
A: They announced an 8.5% surcharge in April to mitigate tariff costs, which dealers received favorably and spurred increased order activity. -
Recurring Revenue Mix
Q: Which hardware drives recurring revenue?
A: The focus is on the StarLink radio line—covering fire, burglary, and home automation—with recurring revenue now constituting 49% of total revenue. -
Quoting Activity
Q: How is sell‑through trending with current quotes?
A: Management noted encouraging sell‑through stats—with sequential increases of 7% to 16% across segments—indicating robust demand that should normalize distributor inventories. -
Tariffs & Demand Resilience
Q: Is demand resilient despite tariff pressures?
A: They believe that security remains essential; even amid tariff-driven concerns, customers continue to invest since protection is a priority, making demand essentially recession‑proof. -
Share Repurchases
Q: Will strong cash flow drive further buybacks?
A: Given the solid cash flow—recent repurchases equaled operating cash—and a debt‑free balance sheet, management is open to additional buybacks if the stock remains undervalued. -
Operating Expenses
Q: Why are operating expenses elevated this quarter?
A: Higher OpEx was driven by increased legal fees, personnel additions, and trade show expenses, with management expecting these levels to persist as investments continue. -
Dealer Incentives
Q: Should we expect changes in dealer incentives?
A: With pricing adjustments already well received, management sees little need for extra incentives, focusing instead on sustaining competitive advantages. -
ADI Relationship
Q: How is the ADI rollout progressing?
A: The ADI partnership—now around two years old—has shown solid sell‑through and is opening doors to major dealer networks, indicating a promising growth channel. -
Q4 Seasonality
Q: Will seasonal factors boost Q4 results?
A: Management anticipates a strong Q4 driven by seasonal trends, price increases to beat order rushes, and an overall boost in equipment orders. -
School Funding
Q: How does school funding affect market opportunities?
A: Despite broader federal spending cuts, school security remains a priority with ample funding, ensuring continued upgrade opportunities. -
PRIMA Update
Q: What progress is seen with the PRIMA product?
A: Although improvements have been made, PRIMA has not yet reached its potential and remains a work in progress as management strives for further gains.