nVent Electric - Q1 2024
May 3, 2024
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good day, and welcome to the nVent Electric Q1 2024 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Tony Riter, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Tony Riter (VP of Investor Relations)
Thank you, and welcome to nVent's Q1 2024 earnings call. On the call with me are Beth Wozniak, our Chair and Chief Executive Officer, and Sara Zawoyski, our Chief Financial Officer. They will provide details on our Q1 performance, an outlook for the Q2, and an update to our full-year outlook. Before we begin, let me remind you that any statements made about the company's anticipated financial results are forward-looking statements subject to future risks and uncertainties, such as the risks outlined in today's press release and nVent's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Forward-looking statements are made as of today, and the company undertakes no obligation to update publicly such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from anticipated results.
Today's webcast is accompanied by a presentation, which you can find in the investor section of nVent's website. References to non-GAAP financials are reconciled in the appendix of the presentation. We'll have time for questions after prepared remarks. With that, please turn to slide three, and I will now turn the call over to Beth.
Beth Wozniak (Chair and CEO)
Thank you, Tony, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to be with you today to share our Q1 results. We had another great quarter. We continued to execute on our growth strategy, focused on high-growth verticals, new products, global expansion, and acquisitions. We had impressive volume growth, margin expansion, and robust free cash flow. We continued to see AI accelerate demand for our data solutions offerings. We also recently published our 2023 sustainability report, which highlights significant progress on our ESG goals, including adding 2 new goals. Overall, we are pleased with the strong start to the year and are raising our full-year adjusted EPS guidance. Now on to slide four for a summary of our Q1 performance. Q1 sales were up 18%.
On an organic basis, sales grew 5% on top of 8% growth a year ago, with growth across all geographic regions. New products contributed over 3 points to our sales growth, and we launched 17 new products in the quarter. Orders in the quarter grew low single digits, and sell-out through our key distribution partners remained positive. We believe the distribution channel has largely completed their inventory adjustments. From a segment standpoint, Enclosures had strong sales growth driven by Data Solutions. As expected, Electrical and Fastening Solutions was down due to a decline in infrastructure with customer and channel inventory normalization. Thermal Management continued to improve sequentially and we believe is positioned for growth the rest of the year. Looking at our key verticals, Infrastructure led the way, up low teens, with Data Solutions growing strong double digits. Industrial grew low single digits, with all segments up.
Commercial resi also grew low single digits. Finally, energy was down, impacted by our exit from Russia a year ago. Turning to organic sales by geography, we continued to see broad-based growth led by North America, up mid-single digits. Europe grew low single digits, and Asia Pacific grew high single digits with solid growth in China. Lastly, segment income grew 30% year-over-year, with return on sales up an impressive 200 basis points. Adjusted EPS grew 15% on top of 34% a year ago, and free cash flow grew 41% year-over-year. Looking ahead, for full year guidance, we are maintaining our sales outlook and raising our adjusted EPS range, reflecting our strong start to the year. We expect electrification, sustainability, and digitalization to continue to drive demand. We're on track for another great year.
From a vertical perspective, we expect infrastructure to have the strongest growth, benefiting from the electrification and digitalization trends. We expect continued strong growth in data solutions, particularly our liquid cooling solutions, given the acceleration of AI. In commercial, we anticipate modest growth, with residential being soft. In energy, we expect growth driven by the energy in transition, in particular, LNG, clean fuels, carbon capture, and hydrogen. Overall, I'm proud of our nVent team and how we continue to perform and deliver impressive results. I will now turn the call over to Sara for further detail on our Q1 results and our updated outlook for 2024. Sara, please go ahead.
Sara Zawoyski (CFO)
Thank you, Beth. Let's begin on slide five with our Q1 results. We are off to a great start to the year. Organic sales growth and adjusted EPS exceeded guidance and execution was strong. Sales of $875 million were up 18% relative to last year or 5% organically. Volumes were up 4 points and price added 1 point to growth. Acquisitions added $98 million to sales or 13 points to growth. Foreign exchange was roughly flat. Q1 segment income was $192 million, up 30%, with incrementals of 33%. Return on sales was 22%, up 200 basis points year-over-year. Price plus productivity more than offset investments and total inflation of roughly $20 million. As expected, the ECM acquisition was accretive to return on sales.
Q1 adjusted EPS was $0.77, up 15%, and above the high end of our guidance range. Acquisitions contributed a strong $0.06 in the quarter. We generated robust free cash flow of $74 million, up 41% compared to a year ago, reflecting our strong operational performance. Now, please turn to slide 6 for a discussion of our Q1 segment performance. Starting with Enclosures, the team delivered a fantastic quarter. Sales of $440 million increased 13%. The TEXA acquisition added two points to sales. Organically, sales increased 11% on top of 11% growth a year ago. This included high single-digit volume growth and positive price. Infrastructure grew strong double digits, led by Data Solutions. Industrial and commercial resi each grew low single digits. Geographically, North America led up low teens, followed by Europe, up mid single digits.
Enclosures Q1 segment income was $95 million, up 15%. Return on sales of 21.6% increased 50 basis points year-over-year, driven by strong growth and execution, while we continued to make significant growth investments. Moving to Electrical and Fastening, sales of $292 million increased 42%. The ECM acquisition contributed 44 points to sales growth. Organic sales were down 3%, reflecting positive price and lower volumes. Industrial and commercial residential each grew in the quarter. This was more than offset by a decline in infrastructure due to customer and channel inventory normalization and a strong prior year comparison. Geographically, organic sales declined in North America and Europe, while Asia-Pacific was up. Electrical and Fastening segment income was $85 million, up 39% year-over-year.
Return on sales was 29.2%, down 60 basis points, mainly due to lower volumes and the impact of the ECM acquisition. Turning to Thermal Management, sales of $143 million were down 1% organically. The Russia impact was approximately four points to growth. Volumes were down low single digits with positive price. Notably, commercial resi continued to improve sequentially and industrial MRO sales remained strong. In addition, backlog grew year-over-year, and Energy in Transition represents over a third of the project backlog. Geographically, growth was led by Asia-Pacific, while North America and Europe declined. Thermal Management segment income of $32 million was up 3%. Return on sales of 22.3% was up 80 basis points year-over-year due to strong execution and favorable mix.
On slide seven, titled Balance Sheet and Cash Flow, we ended the quarter with $211 million of cash on hand and $600 million available on our revolver. We believe our healthy balance sheet provides us with ample capacity to invest in the business and execute on our growth strategy. Turning to slide eight, where we outline our capital allocation priorities. We continue to prioritize growth and execute a balanced and disciplined approach to capital allocation to deliver great returns. We had strong free cash flow in the quarter, growing 41% year-over-year. As a result, we exited Q1 with a net debt to Adjusted EBITDA ratio of 1.9x. As previously announced, our quarterly dividend increased 9%, returning $32 million to shareholders. We believe we are well-positioned for capital deployment in 2024.
Moving to slide nine and our full-year outlook. We continue to expect reported sales growth of 8%-10%, with organic growth in the range of 3%-5%. This includes positive price and strong volume growth for the year, and acquisitions are expected to contribute approximately 5 points to growth. We are raising our full-year Adjusted EPS range to $3.22-$3.30, up 5%-8%... our original guidance of $3.17-$3.27. We now expect segment income to grow 10%-12% for the year, versus 8%-11% previously. This raised guidance reflects the strong start to the year. All other modeling assumptions for the full year remain unchanged.
Looking at our Q2 outlook on slide 10, we expect organic sales to be up 3%-5%. For segment organic sales growth, we expect enclosures to lead with high single-digit growth, electrical and fastening to be similar to Q1, and thermal management to turn positive. We expect adjusted EPS to be between $0.81 and $0.83, which at the midpoint reflects 6% growth relative to last year. Wrapping up, I am pleased with our Q1 performance. We delivered strong growth, margin expansion, and robust cash flow, and are well-positioned for another great year. This concludes my remarks, and I will now turn the call back over to Beth.
Beth Wozniak (Chair and CEO)
Thank you, Sara. Turning to slide 11, I would like to provide an update on our data solutions business. The acceleration of AI, greater data consumption, rising heat densities, and growth in edge computing are all drivers of demand for our data solutions offerings. We have a broad and innovative portfolio that includes liquid cooling, smart power distribution, cable management, enclosures, racks and cabinets, and leak detection and sensing solutions. We believe we're well-positioned to grow with the significant data center infrastructure investments driven by the acceleration of AI. Today, only 5% of data centers are liquid-cooled. With the technology shift to the new AI chips, liquid cooling is an imperative. In addition, liquid cooling can provide up to 50% energy savings and reduce power consumption.
We estimate liquid cooling will grow 3x faster than conventional air cooling and represent roughly 25% of data center cooling by 2028. We believe we are a leader in this space and are able to provide a broad range of solutions, be it liquid to air, air to liquid, or liquid to liquid for both greenfield and retrofit. We have offered liquid cooling solutions for over 15 years, starting in industrial applications. We have developed technical application expertise in manufacturing and supply chain capabilities. Today, we are partnering with major data center players. Our innovative solutions, along with our ability to manufacture at scale, positions us to win in this rapidly growing space. We are also building out a portfolio of standard products to drive broader adoption and scale through distribution channels.
We view cooling and power to be the fastest-growing areas, which now make up 50% of our Data Solutions business. In the Q1, we completed the move of our distribution center in Minnesota to a new location, freeing up that space to expand our liquid cooling capacity. We expect this new space to come online in Q3 and give us the ability to expand capacity fourfold. Lastly, we continue to expect our Data Solutions business to be over $500 million this year. Please turn to slide 12, titled 2023 Sustainability Report. At nVent, we are building a more sustainable and electrified world. Our commitment to sustainability is integral to how we operate, and we took measurable steps to improve our impact in 2023.
Last month, we published our latest sustainability report that highlights the significant progress we've made across our people, products, and planet pillars. Our people pillar focuses on inclusion, diversity, employee engagement, safety, and integrity. In 2023, we increased global representation of women in management by 4%-4 percentage points, improving diversity of leadership. Safety of our employees is a key priority, and in 2023, we improved our total recordable incident rate by more than 20%. We believe our people and culture are a differentiator, and our efforts are focused on making nVent a great place to work. Our products pillar focuses on developing highly innovative solutions that deliver efficiency, safety, and reduced resource consumption, creating a more sustainable future.
In 2023, 85% of products in our new product introduction funnel had a positive ESG impact, and we're on track to get to greater than 90% by 2025. We set a new goal to eliminate single-use plastics from our product packaging by 2030. Through our innovative products and solutions, we are helping our customers build a more sustainable and electrified world. For example, our electrical connection solutions, which include grounding and bonding, grounding and power connections, add resiliency to critical electrical systems. Our solutions include flexible bus bars with a bending radius much smaller than that of cable, which enables space and material savings. Alongside benefits of easier installation, these higher current density conductors allow renewable energy and utility customers to meet the demands of increasingly complex applications....
Our planet pillar focuses on responsible energy, waste, and water management to help protect our natural resources. In 2023, we reduced total greenhouse gas emissions by 9%, increased renewable energy consumption to 15%, and increased energy-efficient LED lighting in our facilities to 89%. These are measurable steps, and to further demonstrate our commitment to environmental stewardship, we set a new goal to reduce water consumption by 25% by 2030. I'm very proud that we've been recognized for our efforts. We were awarded a Gold Sustainability rating from EcoVadis, placing us in the top 3% of companies assessed in our industry and in the 93rd percentile of all companies assessed. We were also recognized as one of America's greenest companies by Newsweek. We were named for the first time to the Fortune Best Workplaces in Manufacturing and Production list.
Most recently, nVent was recognized as one of the world's most ethical companies by Ethisphere. Our sustainability efforts are key to our strategy and how we operate. I'm very proud of everything we have accomplished and the journey we are on. Wrapping up on slide 13, we are off to a strong start to the year with record Q1 sales and adjusted EPS. We have made significant progress on our ESG goals, and we believe we are well positioned with the electrification of everything, sustainability, and digitalization trends. I am proud of our team's performance. Our future is bright. With that, I will now turn the call over to the operator to start Q&A.
Operator (participant)
We will now begin the question-and-answer session. To ask a question, you may press Star, then one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press Star, then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. Our first question comes from Deane Dray with RBC Capital. Please go ahead.
Deane Dray (Managing Director)
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Nice start to the year.
Beth Wozniak (Chair and CEO)
Good morning, Deane.
Operator (participant)
Good morning.
Deane Dray (Managing Director)
Hey, lots of new data points here on slide 11 regarding your liquid cooling, positioning, and capacity. So that's the first question: is that 4x expansion in your capacity? I had been talking about and thinking it was 2x, so obviously much bigger here. So you, you identify you have a new plant, but so the run rate by the end of this year, this is the 4x capacity, and how much of this capacity is already spoken for in terms of your, your line of sight on visibility of demand? So maybe a sense of utilization.
Beth Wozniak (Chair and CEO)
Well, we expect some of this capacity to start to come online through the back half of the year, and, I mean, that's going to continue to grow into 2025. So when we talk at 4x capacity, some of that's the space. We have to continue to build out our labs, for example, and some of those lines. So we believe that that capacity supports the growth that we see this year and enables us and we have some visibility into 2025, and certainly we're working on testing some configurations with various customers, and that test process takes some while, but we're just anticipating that that, you know, gets us through 2025, 2026, and we'll see beyond that where it takes us to. And I think, Deane, to comment on the 2x, recall we've done a couple of things.
First, we expanded capacity because we moved some lines out of our facility in Minnesota to Mexico. So that was our first expansion in the footprint that we had. Then we moved this distribution center out so that we could expand even further, because that was the fastest thing that we could do to get capacity up online.
Deane Dray (Managing Director)
That's a great visibility then, so, and I appreciate how, how nimble your manufacturing capacity has ramped up. Then just a second question. There's another new data point here for us at least. The identifying liquid cooling growing three times faster than legacy. So legacy air, in our view, has been growing roughly mid-teens. That looks like a step up in the growth versus the greater than 30% you had been saying. Is that a fair assessment?
Beth Wozniak (Chair and CEO)
We think that it has, that it has increased from what we've seen previously, and so recall, we had a very strong quarter with Data Solutions.
Deane Dray (Managing Director)
Great. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Julian Mitchell (Equity Research Analyst)
Hi, good morning.
Beth Wozniak (Chair and CEO)
Good morning.
Julian Mitchell (Equity Research Analyst)
Good morning. Maybe just wanted to start with the sort of price, cost, and gross margin dynamics. So I think you said inflation was a $20 million headwind in Q1, so price cost was negative, maybe $14 million or so in the Q1. Just a couple of things on that. One is, is that why the gross margin declined year-over-year despite the volume growth? And then secondly, how should we think about that price cost dynamic playing out in your kind of segment income bridge for the balance of the year? Thank you.
Sara Zawoyski (CFO)
Yeah, I'll start with, you know, coming into this year, you know, we said it's gonna be a combination, and this is consistent with how we've run the business for years, of price plus productivity.
... you know, offsetting that total inflation, which includes material, labor, and everything else, as well as helping to fund those investments. And so we think Q1 played out exactly how we would have expected it to, and how we expect the year to play out as well. And then secondly, I would say from a price perspective, we said, look, you know, we want positive price this year. And again, we saw that play out across all three segments in Q1. And importantly, productivity was going to play a more meaningful role, you know, in offsetting inflation and again, helping us fund those investments.
We had also said, and we saw this play out really nicely here in Q1, and we would expect that to continue in the course of the year, that while we were getting some productivity in material and logistics last year, we weren't really getting that core four wall productivity, and we began to see that here in Q1. So as you think about, you know, price for the full year, you know, we continue to expect that to be positive price. And when we think about that dynamic of, you know, price, you know, inflation, productivity, there's nothing really to call out specifically, you know, through the course of Q2 in the back half. The one thing that I will call out, and that is impacting, you know, margins, you know, in Q2 here in the back half, is just the increased investments.
You know, part of that's gonna be on the R&D side. You saw that in Q1. It was up 9% from where we're at in Q4, but also these investments around capacity, which we believe has, you know, great, ROI to it as well.
Julian Mitchell (Equity Research Analyst)
Sara, just on that point, the $20 million number you mentioned earlier in the quarter, is that investment plus inflation or just inflation?
Sara Zawoyski (CFO)
That's just inflation. So that means that productivity was, you know, meaningful, you know, to help offset that inflation, as well as help some fund some of those investments, like the higher R&D.
Julian Mitchell (Equity Research Analyst)
Absolutely. And my follow-up would just be on the EFS division. Just maybe help us understand kind of within infrastructure, that destocking, is it around utilities or some other vertical, and how we should think about the sort of margins playing out at EFS over the balance of the year, please?
Beth Wozniak (Chair and CEO)
So when you look at EFS, where we saw that infrastructure weakness was utility and telecom. And just part of this is last year we had very high comps. I think we were up 40% in utility. And so as lead times normalized and inventory, not only at distributors, but at the channel, that's what we saw. And telecom, I think, is just a softer market condition. So those are the key two key drivers.
Julian Mitchell (Equity Research Analyst)
Thanks very much.
Beth Wozniak (Chair and CEO)
For margin, I'll let Sara just comment on that.
Sara Zawoyski (CFO)
Yeah. So from an overall margin standpoint, just remember that while ECM is accretive to overall nVent, you know, it's dilutive to EFS more specifically. I think the other thing I would call out, just as you think about where we're guiding to in Q2, we do expect some margin contraction there in EFS because of that ECM dilution, at least half a quarter. You know, but also they begin to lap some pretty amazing return on sales of a year ago at 32% here in Q2 and Q3. And remember, we had called out that they had some mixed benefits there that was benefiting those return on sales, but still on an absolute basis, you know, good, healthy return on sales.
Julian Mitchell (Equity Research Analyst)
Thanks so much.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Nigel Coe (Managing Director)
Thanks. Good morning, wanted to dig back into the price. I thought we were looking for 2% price in 2024, so maybe I got that wrong, but maybe just clarify that. And so is 1% a good number to use through the year? But really, on orders, can you maybe just talk about orders by segments, you know, that looks into the order growth, how that looks across the three segments? And then how does April look? I know it's you just wrapped up April, but how did the orders look for April?
Beth Wozniak (Chair and CEO)
Let me start off on the price side. So, you know, in our February call, you know, we talked a lot about, you know, price and volume and saying that we would expect positive price, but volume would be a much more significant contribution, you know-
Nigel Coe (Managing Director)
Okay.
Beth Wozniak (Chair and CEO)
-to that overall top line, which is exactly the way Q1 played out. And we also said that that price plus productivity was gonna help offset that total inflation, you know, as well as help and fund those investments, which is how Q1 played out. And when we look at the order trends, orders were up mid-single digits in Electrical and Fastening and low single digits in Thermal and Enclosures. And I think, you know, April looks like Q1.
Nigel Coe (Managing Director)
Okay, that's, that's really helpful. And then on the capacity expansion, in liquid cooling, which Deane covered quite well, how does the margin profile for liquid cooling look as you ramp that up? I mean, I'm, I'm guessing there's gonna be a lot of stock costs and whatnot. So, does, does that start to drag in a meaningful way or measurable way within the segment?
Beth Wozniak (Chair and CEO)
Yeah, so that Data Solutions business, which mostly, you know, largely sits in Enclosures, we said it's just roughly on par, you know, from a growth margin standpoint. But what we are investing in is that capacity. And as you might expect, as we bring that capacity, you know, online and make some pretty big shifts-
... within one of our largest factories here in Q2 and Q3 to make room, you know, for that liquid cooling capacity. We are expecting some ramp-up costs, you know, to impact that here in Q2 and Q3, but that's reflected in our overall guidance here in Q2.
Nigel Coe (Managing Director)
So does that mean—Sorry, I don't want to take too much time here, but when you think about that price productivity, inflation, investment bucket together, with the ramp-up costs here, do we see some potential for negativity in that balance? Or do you still think neutral is the right way?
Beth Wozniak (Chair and CEO)
No, in the combination of price plus productivity, we expect to offset that inflation and investments. But if you just look at that kind of net productivity bar, you know, that's where some of those investments are going to flow in.
Nigel Coe (Managing Director)
Okay.
Beth Wozniak (Chair and CEO)
In Q2-
Nigel Coe (Managing Director)
That's great.
Beth Wozniak (Chair and CEO)
and in Q3. Yep.
Nigel Coe (Managing Director)
Right. Thanks. Thanks, Sara.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Joe Ritchie (Managing Director)
Hi, good morning, everyone.
Beth Wozniak (Chair and CEO)
Good morning.
Sara Zawoyski (CFO)
Good morning.
Joe Ritchie (Managing Director)
Hey, can we just talk about the Q1 growth performance? You know, organically turned out to be a little bit better than we expected, which is great to see. I guess, how much of that was driven by just the Data Solutions business, just continuing to be on fire versus the rest of your business? And then really, kind of the reason I'm asking is, is as you kind of think about the Q2, you know, and now that you've lapsed some destocking, you've got no Russia, you know, tough comp in Q2, why wouldn't it step up in Q2?
Beth Wozniak (Chair and CEO)
Well, let me... I'll, I'll start with Q1, and I'll let Sara refer back to, to guidance again. But, we had very strong growth in Data Solutions in the quarter, and some of that is just a result of some of those—how those customer programs, layered in. But that's certainly what gave us some of that significant volume growth is coming from Data Solutions.
Sara Zawoyski (CFO)
Then as we think about that, Joe, from a Q2 perspective, you know, again, we expect, you know, data solutions to grow very nicely here in Q2, just not quite at the levels of Q1. And so that's why, you know, as Enclosures printed a fantastic 11% organic growth in Q1, you know, we expect that to look more like high single digits here in Q2. The other thing I would point to is just we are expecting to see a bit more softer Europe. Europe was up for us in Q1, and we do expect we're taking a bit more of a cautious view on Europe here in Q2.
Joe Ritchie (Managing Director)
Okay. Yeah, that makes sense, and that's super helpful. Thank you for that. I guess my follow-on question, it was great to see the offerings at Data Center World, and as I obviously, it seems like, you know, folks are just running as fast as they possibly can in that end market. As I think about your own offering, there are certain things that you guys do in-house, there are certain things that you guys, you know, outsource. Is there any thought around, you know, potentially, you know, using some of the M&A dollars to get a little bit bigger, either in the CDU itself or in other areas that sell into the data center?
Beth Wozniak (Chair and CEO)
Well, as we think about our overall strategy in M&A, you know, we always say we look at high growth verticals first. I think, Joe, I mean, I can point to a couple of acquisitions we've done. We've done six, and, you know, two of them from the WBT, Wire Basket Tray, contributed to our cable management offering, and the CIS Global acquisition contributed to our smart power distribution. I think as we continue to look at M&A, we look at great products and great verticals, and certainly, I think, you know, there's always opportunities there for us to strengthen the portfolio and data solutions as it is in other infrastructure areas.
Joe Ritchie (Managing Director)
Okay, great. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Beth Wozniak (Chair and CEO)
Hey, Jeff, are you there?
Jeff Hammond (Managing Director)
Yeah, can you hear me?
Beth Wozniak (Chair and CEO)
Yep. Yeah, we can hear you now.
Jeff Hammond (Managing Director)
Okay, great. Just a clarification on the capacity expansion, the 4x, does that contemplate a new plant as well, or is that just simply the moves you've made, you know, creating space?
Beth Wozniak (Chair and CEO)
Yeah, that is not a new plant, but, what we did is we moved out a distribution center that was attached to our main manufacturing facility. We moved that to a new location and then expanded or are expanding within that area, the liquid cooling capacity. So that's, you know, remember, we expanded in Mexico. That was the first step. That created space. Then we moved distribution to a new location and now expanding within that footprint.
Jeff Hammond (Managing Director)
Okay, great. And then, EFS, I, I think you said thermal is going to return to growth the rest of the year, but how should we think about EFS into 2Q? I know the orders were better. And then just on those orders, is that kind of clear line of sight that, you know, that destocking is, you know, is kind of behind us from here?
Beth Wozniak (Chair and CEO)
Let me start by just saying, you know, one of the comments I made is when we look at our distribution channel, we see that we had... There was positive sell-through, so that's good. And we think largely the distribution channels have normalized and stabilized. However, there are some areas, and we called out for EFS, areas like utility, for example, where we know that there's inventory at the end customer and at the channel, and recall, we had a very big comp of 40% growth in utilities last year. So some of that we think plays into Q2, but very specific, you know, areas. But overall, I'd say it's largely stabilized.
Jeff Hammond (Managing Director)
... Okay, thanks so much.
Sara Zawoyski (CFO)
Yeah, and Jeff, I would just comment on EFS. So EFS, we still expect EFS to grow for the full year. But for Q2, we expect, you know, that Q2 year-over-year performance to look a lot like Q1, because we do expect those infrastructure dynamics that Beth talked about to continue into the quarter. And as we think about the back half, a couple things there to keep in mind. One would just be, comps do get easier. You know, two would be, you know, we do expect that inventory normalization to begin to kind of ease, if you will, you know, in the back half closer to Q4. And I think the last thing I would just point out is the sales synergies for ECM as well as EFS and the combination thereof.
You know, we think that'll begin to layer on in the back half of the year.
Jeff Hammond (Managing Director)
Okay, thank you.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research Partners. Please go ahead.
Jeff Sprague (Managing Partner)
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Sara Zawoyski (CFO)
Good morning.
Beth Wozniak (Chair and CEO)
Good morning.
Jeff Sprague (Managing Partner)
Morning. Just coming back to the capacity addition. I know you're not going to tell us exactly what your liquid cooling sales are, but I, I just kind of want to understand what 4x means. I mean, does it literally mean if you had, you know, $50 million of revenue in liquid cooling in 2023, you believe you have $200 million in 2025? Is it, is it directly correlated to kind of a revenue run rate?
Beth Wozniak (Chair and CEO)
Well, no, not precisely. I would say this, when we look at the footprint space, this is what we're referring to, and so it will take us some time to build out some of the lines, as well as we're expanding our lab capability. Because one of the things with these solutions is it goes under extensive testing within our labs as well as our customers, you know, in situ. So, we will have the footprint, and eventually that will expand our capacity from a volume, a unit volume.
Jeff Sprague (Managing Partner)
Understood. And then just back to the thermal, clearly with the Russia headwind behind us, we would expect it to return to growth. But can you be a little bit more specific on what you're seeing there, you know, kind of in the, you know, in the served end markets in thermal that would underpin kind of the return to growth and how you see that playing out, you know, maybe even kind of in the next year, given that I'm sure there's some project activity going on there?
Beth Wozniak (Chair and CEO)
Yeah. So as we, in our prepared remarks, you know, we talked about, we're seeing our backlog up. We're seeing new wins on energy transition. That's an area that we've really focused on, and we see investment flowing there. We certainly had some strong growth in Asia Pacific as we see industrial and chemical, you know, opportunities, and we continue to sequentially see commercial resi improve in that thermal business. So as we, this is, Q2 is the last quarter that we lapped the Russia exit. We see, an increased backlog, we see increased orders and, generally, you know, a lot of quote activity. So we feel confident that the thermal business is poised for growth the remainder of the year.
Jeff Sprague (Managing Partner)
Great. Thank you. I'll leave it there.
Beth Wozniak (Chair and CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Nicole DeBlase (Managing Director)
Yeah, thanks. Good morning, everyone.
Sara Zawoyski (CFO)
Good morning.
Beth Wozniak (Chair and CEO)
Good morning.
Nicole DeBlase (Managing Director)
Maybe we could continue with thermal. From a margin perspective, pretty impressive performance up year on year with down sales in the quarter. I guess, how should we think through the rest of the year? Is that, is that sustainable? And then I know you guys have put work into, you know, doing some restructuring in that business as sales have been weak. What can incrementals look like once organic growth does turn positive?
Sara Zawoyski (CFO)
I'll maybe start with just the overall incremental question. So, you know, we were pleased with the incrementals in Q1 at 33%. And overall, you know, we continue to believe that, you know, our business with the strong growth profile, value proposition, and margins, you know, that in a more normal environment, you know, those incrementals will look like, you know, +30%. And then I think your question was on thermal management in terms from a return on sales perspective. I would just start by saying I think the team's done an excellent job of, you know, managing that cost structure, you know, managing the price-cost equation, and really pleased with that overall Q1 return on sales performance.
We wouldn't expect that same level of year-over-year ROAS expansion, you know, here in Q2, in the back half, in part because of the projects that Beth talked about. I mean, you know, we, we pointed out in Q1, they were benefiting from some favorable mix on the product side. But as that top line returns to growth, and some of that's going to be projects, which still comes at good margins, but not quite as good as the product side, you know, that's going to impact that year-over-year return on sales perspective.
Nicole DeBlase (Managing Director)
Got it. Very clear. And then maybe on Europe, you guys spoke about how you're kind of anticipating maybe some Europe weakness coming through in the Q2. Is that something that you guys actually saw in your order trends, or are you just being a little bit cautious based on what you're hearing? Thank you.
Beth Wozniak (Chair and CEO)
So, yeah, we did see that in our order trend through Q1, that Europe was definitely softer than North America and Asia Pacific.
Nicole DeBlase (Managing Director)
Thank you. I'll pass it on.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Vlad Bystricky with Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Vlad Bystricky (VP)
Good morning. Thanks for taking my call.
Beth Wozniak (Chair and CEO)
Good morning.
Vlad Bystricky (VP)
So I just wanted to follow up on that last question and comment from Nicole about Europe. Can you just give us more color on-
... you know, what's contemplated in guidance for the rest of the year in terms of potential for incremental weakening in Europe going forward?
Sara Zawoyski (CFO)
Well, here's what I would say is that, you know, we were pleased with the Q1 performance, where we actually grew Europe overall in Q1. And so what we're suggesting here is in that Q2 guide, we're not expecting growth here in Europe. And I think it really reflects some of the order trends, you know, that Beth alluded to.
Vlad Bystricky (VP)
Okay, that's helpful. Thanks. And then can you, can you just give us an update on, on what you're seeing in terms of underlying growth at ECM, and how you're, you know, progressing on, on synergy capture there versus your expectations?
Beth Wozniak (Chair and CEO)
Yeah, when we look at ECM, that business had, you know, several different channels, and I would say ECM has performed very similar to what we've seen our EFS business. I would say they have a stronger retail channel, and so that's retail resi, that's been a little softer, and that was our comment, about we expect that to continue to be soft. But I think as, we've been working on a lot of our sales synergies, and as Sara commented on, we expect to see that start to layer in in the back half of the year. And so that is everything from bringing some of that product through our rep and distribution network, as well as into, taking some of those products and bringing them... You know, making sure that they're certified, so we can bring them into Europe.
So all of that activity is underway. And I will say this, you know, one of the things, when we acquired that business, they certainly had supply chain challenges and availability challenges, and we worked very hard to improve that situation. And what's been encouraging is that we've seen and heard from our customers, we see some of that, those, you know, orders pick up where we've improved the delivery situation. But overall, ECM is a great acquisition for us, and we think it just extends our portfolio in power connection solutions. And so, you know, we see great potential for the synergies to play, you know, to play out over the next several years.
Sara Zawoyski (CFO)
Maybe just a quick add on the cost synergy side. I would just say we're well on track. You know, as we acquired ECM, we were really excited about it from the growth side, but we also did see some cost synergies there in that $10-$15 million mark by year three, and I would say that we're well on track to deliver that. We're seeing material procurement synergies, logistics, you know, indirect. I think too, on the cash tax synergies, we now expect closer to $10 million per year versus the $6-$8 million previously that we had discussed.
And then lastly, you know, we talked about in 2024, with those acquisitions being accretive to EPS and that $0.07-$0.08, and so we saw a strong $0.06, you know, contribution here in Q1. So, you know, contributing overall, you know, very nicely.
Vlad Bystricky (VP)
Great. That's, that's really helpful. Thanks. I'll get back to you.
Beth Wozniak (Chair and CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Our last question comes from Brian Drab with William Blair. Please go ahead.
Brian Drab (Co-Group Head–Industrials)
Hi, just a couple small clarifications at this point, but in EFS, I think that you said that the sell into the channel was up low single digits, the sell-through is positive. Can you just put a finer point on that? What does positive mean exactly? Does that mean sell-through is up slightly year-over-year?
Sara Zawoyski (CFO)
Well, our comment was more around all of nVent, right? That we just saw positive-
Brian Drab (Co-Group Head–Industrials)
Okay.
Sara Zawoyski (CFO)
sell-through, you know, so low single digits.
Brian Drab (Co-Group Head–Industrials)
All right. Well, so positive means low single digits?
Sara Zawoyski (CFO)
Yes.
Brian Drab (Co-Group Head–Industrials)
Okay, got it. Okay. And then in the commercial business, you mentioned that, you know, that things are looking better, or sorry, in the thermal business, that you mentioned things are looking better, commercial and resi. Is that back to growth in the Q1, or was it just improving sequentially? And then also, I was curious, you know, you said the energy end market was the only one that was a trouble point in the Q1. Does that mean that energy was the only end market that you saw a decline, year-over-year in the Q1 within thermal? Thanks.
Beth Wozniak (Chair and CEO)
So, I'm just gonna add, just for clarification. So overall for nVent, commercial resi was positive, and overall for nVent, energy was down, and that was primarily due to the Russia impact. For thermal specifically, we've seen commercial resi improving, so not quite yet back to growth, but it's improved for the last several quarters. And certainly, thermal has been impacted by energy the most because of the Russia impact. And we have one more quarter that will lap here in Q2 with Russia, the Russia exit.
Brian Drab (Co-Group Head–Industrials)
Okay, that helps. Thank you very much.
Operator (participant)
This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Beth Wozniak, Chair and Chief Executive Officer, for any closing remarks.
Beth Wozniak (Chair and CEO)
Thank you for joining us today. I'm very proud of the performance we delivered in the Q1. We will continue to focus on delivering for our customers, employees, and shareholders by executing on our growth strategy. We believe nVent is a top-tier, high-performance electrical company, well positioned for the electrification of everything, sustainability, and digitalization trends. Thanks again for joining us. This concludes the call.
Operator (participant)
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.