nVent Electric - Earnings Call - Q1 2025

Executive Summary

• Solid start to 2025: revenue up 11% to $809M, adjusted EPS up 10% to $0.67; both topped Wall Street consensus on revenue ($790M est) and EPS ($0.664 est). nVent raised FY25 sales and EPS guidance materially, incorporating Avail EPG and tariff impacts. Consensus values marked with * are from S&P Global (see Estimates Context).
• Guidance raised: FY25 reported sales growth lifted to 19–21% (from 8–10%) and adjusted EPS to $3.03–$3.13 (from $2.98–$3.08), with organic growth to 5–7% (from 4–6%).
• Demand drivers: data centers and power utilities strength; backlog grew double digits sequentially in Q1, and organic orders rose mid-teens; Avail EPG (closed May 1) adds scale in electrical infrastructure with expected ~$0.05 FY25 EPS contribution (net).
• Offsets and risks: margin pressure from tariffs (~$120M headwind assumed for FY25) and near-term price/cost timing; Q2 margins guided down y/y but expected to improve in 2H as mitigations take hold.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • Top-line and EPS beats with raised FY outlook; “double-digit growth in orders and sales” and backlog up double digits sequentially, providing visibility through the year.
  • Infrastructure vertical strength: data solutions and power utilities led growth; new products contributed >2 pts to sales, with 35 product launches in Q1.
  • Portfolio transformation: Thermal Management sale completed ($1.7B proceeds expected ~$1.4B net) and Avail EPG acquisition ($975M) closed, further strengthening infrastructure exposure.

• What Went Wrong

  • Margin compression: reported ROS fell 190 bps y/y; adjusted ROS down 130 bps y/y given tariff/investment timing and mix.
  • Price/cost timing from tariffs to weigh on Q2 profitability; Avail margins initially dilutive to reported margins (though accretive to EPS), with improvement planned over time.
  • Commercial/residential and some short-cycle exposure remains softer amid macro uncertainty and distribution inventory caution.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning and welcome to the nVent Electric First Quarter 2025 earnings conference call. All participants will be in the listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key on your telephone keypad. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star, then one, on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star, then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Vice President of Investor Relations, Tony Riter. Please go ahead.

Tony Riter (VP of Investor Relations)

Thank you and welcome to nVent's First Quarter 2025 earnings call. On the call with me are Beth Wozniak, our Chair and Chief Executive Officer; Gary Corona, our Chief Financial Officer; and Sara Zawoyski, our President of Systems Protection. They will provide details on our first quarter performance, an outlook for the second quarter, and an update to our full-year outlook. As a reminder, all results referenced throughout this presentation are on a continuing operation basis unless otherwise stated.

Before we begin, let me remind you that any statements made about the company's anticipated financial results are forward-looking statements subject to future risks and uncertainties, such as the risks outlined in today's press release and nVent's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Forward-looking statements are made as of today, and the company undertakes no obligation to update publicly such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances.

Actual results could differ materially from anticipated results. Today's webcast is accompanied by a presentation which you can find in the Investor section of nVent's website. References to non-GAAP financials are reconciled in the appendix of the presentation. We will have time for your questions after our prepared remarks. With that, please turn to slide three, and I'll now turn the call over to Beth.

Beth Wozniak (CEO)

Good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to share with you our strong first quarter results and cover some key business highlights. First, the way we have set up the call today is to have Sara cover our first quarter performance and then have Gary provide our guidance and outlook. Sara and Gary have been working closely together to ensure a smooth transition.

This will be Sara's last earnings call, and I'm grateful for her leadership and partnership. Sara, in her new role as President of Systems Protection, will be leading our largest growth opportunities from our data solutions business to our newest acquisitions, which includes Trachte and the Avail Electrical Products Group. I know she will be successful and drive our business to new levels. I'm excited to have Gary as part of our team.

Gary has a strong growth and operational finance background and will continue to drive our track record of performance. With his most recent experience as acting CFO for Medtronic and over 25 years at General Mills, he brings broad expertise to nVent. Gary is getting up to speed very quickly. He will build upon the transformation strategy in place, and his experience will help us scale and grow to create shareholder value and strong returns.

Turning to the business performance, we're off to a strong start with double-digit growth across the board in orders, sales, adjusted EPS, and free cash flow in Q1. In addition, we continue to see our backlog grow up double digits sequentially, giving us visibility through the year. We continue to make great progress on our portfolio transformation to become a more focused, higher-growth electrical company.

We closed the thermal management divestiture early in the quarter and the Avail Electrical Products Group acquisition yesterday. Our balance sheet is strong, and our disciplined capital allocation is focused on growth and returning cash to shareholders for continued value creation. We are raising our full-year sales and adjusted EPS guidance to reflect the Electrical Products Group acquisition, data solutions, and power utility strength in the second half, and it also includes the expected impact of tariffs.

Now on to slide four for a summary of our first quarter performance. Sales were up 11% and 2% organically, led by the infrastructure vertical. New products contributed over two points to our sales growth, and we launched 35 new products in the quarter. The Trachte acquisition performed well, growing strong double digits year-over-year. Adjusted operating income grew 4% year-over-year, with return on sales of 20%.

Adjusted EPS grew 10%, and free cash flow grew 32%. Looking at our key verticals, infrastructure led the way, with sales up mid-teens, with strength in both data solutions and power utilities. Commercial resi declined, low single digits. Industrial and energy were each down mid-single digits. Turning to organic sales by geography, the Americas grew low single digits, while Europe was down slightly. Asia-Pacific grew in the high teens.

Organic orders were up mid-teens, including strong double-digit growth in data solutions and mid-single digit growth in the rest of the business. Looking ahead at our verticals, we expect infrastructure to have strong sales growth across both data centers and power utilities, which is now a more meaningful part of our portfolio. We expect industrial to grow low to mid-single digits. We now expect commercial resi to be flattish for the year.

While there remains uncertainty given the dynamic environment, we continue to prioritize our key growth initiatives, which includes new products, acquisitions, and capacity expansion for high-growth verticals. With regard to tariffs, we are taking mitigating steps that include pricing, productivity, and supply chain actions. We continue to closely monitor the situation, scenario plan, and execute our playbook. Overall, I am proud of our nVent team and how we continue to perform and deliver impressive results. We are on track for a strong year. I will now turn the call over to Sara for further details on our first quarter results. Sara, please go ahead.

Sara Zawoyski (President of Systems Protection)

Thank you, Beth. To begin, I am honored for the opportunity to lead the Systems Protection segment, and I am thrilled to have Gary part of the team. We have been working closely together to ensure a smooth transition. Now turning to the business performance, we are off to a great start to the year with double-digit growth in both sales and adjusted earnings, along with robust free cash flow. Let's begin on slide five with our first quarter results. Sales of $809 million were up 11% relative to last year. Organically, sales grew 2%, driven by volume, on top of six points of volume growth last year. Acquisitions added $71 million to sales, or 10 points to growth. Foreign exchange was roughly a one-point headwind. First quarter segment income was $162 million, up 4%. As expected, return on sales was down in the quarter at roughly 1%.

Inflation was approximately $25 million. Productivity partially offset inflation, and we also continued to make investments for growth, particularly in data solutions. Q1 adjusted EPS was 67 cents, up 10% at the high end of our guidance range. We generated robust free cash flow of $44 million, up 32% compared to a year ago. Now please turn to slide six for a discussion of our first quarter segment performance.

Starting with Systems Protection, sales of $508 million increased 16%, driven by the Trachte acquisition. Trachte has performed extremely well, with sales up double digits versus a year ago and a strong backlog. Organically, sales were flat, on top of 11% growth a year ago. Infrastructure grew mid-teens, with continued strength in data solutions. This was offset by declines in both industrial and commercial resi. Geographically, Americas declined low single digits, while Europe was flat and Asia-Pacific grew double digits.

First quarter segment income was $104 million, up 10%. Return on sales of 20.5% decreased 110 basis points year-over-year, impacted by inflation and growth investments. Moving to Electrical Connections, sales of $301 million increased 3%. Organic sales were up 4%, reflecting strong volume. Infrastructure and industrial each grew double digits in the quarter, while commercial resi was down low single digits.

Geographically, organic sales were up mid-single digits in the Americas, while Europe and Asia-Pacific declined. Segment income was $85 million, flat year-over-year. Return on sales was 28.3%, down 90 basis points, mainly due to higher inflation. That wraps up the quarter, and I will now hand it over to Gary.

Gary Corona (EVP and CFO)

Thanks, Sara. I really appreciate the warm welcome from you and Beth. I'm excited to be part of nVent. I've been impressed with the strength of the broader team, the disciplined capital allocation, and focus on execution. The culture of the company, focused on innovation, growth, and performance, is a powerful combination. I look forward to getting to meet many of you in the investment community in the coming months.

Turning to the balance sheet and cash flow on slide seven, we ended the quarter with over $1.3 billion of cash on hand, including the proceeds from the thermal management divestiture. We also had $600 million available on our revolver. In addition, we repaid $390 million of term loans in the first quarter, reducing our overall debt. Free cash flow was robust in the quarter, growing 32% year-over-year.

We believe our healthy balance sheet and strong liquidity position support our disciplined capital allocation strategy. Turning to slide eight, where we outline our capital allocation priorities. We continue to prioritize growth and execute a balanced and disciplined approach to capital allocation to deliver great returns. We are investing in the business via R&D and CapEx for growth and supply chain resiliency.

In addition, we returned significant capital to shareholders already this year. We repurchased approximately $250 million in shares year to date, exceeding our plan, resulting in a lower share count, and we believe at a great value. As previously announced, our quarterly dividend increased 5%. We have additional capacity for capital deployment, with our first priority being to invest in growth. Moving to slide nine. As Beth shared earlier, we are raising our full-year reported sales and adjusted EPS guidance.

We now forecast reported sales growth of 19% to 21%. For organic sales growth, we now expect to grow 5% to 7% versus our prior guidance of 4% to 6%, mainly reflecting visibility and strength in data solutions and power utilities. We expect acquisitions to now contribute 14 percentage points to sales, up from 5 percentage points previously, reflecting the Avail Electrical Products Group acquisition. We now expect foreign exchange to be approximately flat.

We are raising our full-year adjusted EPS range to $3.03-$3.13, up 22% to 26% versus our original guidance of $2.98-$3.08. This new guidance assumes tariff impacts of approximately $120 million based on what we know today. We expect to offset the impact with price, productivity, and supply chain mitigating actions. It also includes approximately 5 cents for the Avail Electrical Products Group acquisition. A few modeling assumptions to note.

First, full-year net interest expense is now expected to be approximately $75 million, reflecting the cash deployed to M&A, share repurchases, and debt paydown year to date. Second, we anticipate share count to be approximately 165 million. Lastly, we are raising our CapEx forecast to approximately $100 million. The increase is for additional data solutions capacity, supply chain resiliency, and the expected CapEx for the Avail EPG acquisition.

Looking at our second quarter outlook on Slide 10, we forecast reported sales to grow 22%-24%, with acquisitions contributing approximately 18 percentage points to sales. Organic sales growth is expected to be up 4%-6%. The additional price increases coupled with productivity are not expected to fully offset the tariff impacts in Q2. We anticipate price plus productivity to more than offset the impacts as we get to the back half of the year.

We expect adjusted EPS to be $0.77-$0.79 in the second quarter, which at the midpoint reflects 16% growth relative to last year. Wrapping up, we are pleased with our first quarter performance. We delivered strong sales and earnings growth and are well positioned for another great year. I will now turn the call back over to Beth.

Beth Wozniak (CEO)

Thank you, Gary. On Slide 11, you can see the actions we have taken in our portfolio transformation. The divestiture of the thermal management business and the two most recent acquisitions of Trachte and Avail Electrical Products Group have reshaped our portfolio to increase our presence in the electrical infrastructure vertical. We believe these actions have positioned us as a more focused, higher growth connection and protection company.

In addition, we have grown our data solutions business to over $600 million in sales. The infrastructure vertical, which was our smallest vertical at spin, is now the largest. We believe it is the highest growth vertical with the trends of electrification, sustainability, and digitalization. This year, the infrastructure vertical is expected to be over 40% of our sales, with data solutions and power utilities each approximately 20% of sales.

Our portfolio is now a balance between short cycle and long cycle with a growing backlog. As a result, we believe we are better positioned for growth and value creation. Turning to Slide 12, yesterday we closed on our acquisition of the Avail Electrical Products Group, a leading provider of control buildings, switchgear, and bus systems. This acquisition builds on our control buildings platform acquired with the Trachte acquisition and expands our offerings and capabilities in new applications.

The addition of the Electrical Products Group further strengthens our solutions in high growth verticals with approximately 85% of its sales in power utilities, data centers, and renewables. This business has been growing sales strong double digits with a robust backlog, giving us visibility into 2026.

Overall, the demand for electrical infrastructure products is increasing with the need to expand the overall grid, the move to more renewable energy, and the increase in data centers. Recently, NEMA, the National Electrical Manufacturers Association, released an independent grid study showing electricity demand is forecasted to grow by 50% by 2050. This study shows the electrification trend is upon us, and electrical solutions and innovation will be required to meet the increasing demand.

It is an exciting time for the electrical industry, and nVent is well positioned to be a part of this energy transition. Please turn to Slide 13, titled 2024 Sustainability Report. At nVent, we are building a more sustainable and electrified world. Last month, we published our latest sustainability report that outlines our commitment to sustainability and the meaningful progress we are making. Our focus is on people, products, planet, and governance.

A few highlights from the report. In 2024, we achieved above the global benchmark for employee satisfaction. On products, 85% of our new product introduction funnel has a positive sustainability impact. On planet, we have reduced our normalized CO2 emissions by 47% since 2019. Lastly, we were recognized as one of the world's most ethical companies by Ethisphere for the second consecutive year.

Our sustainability efforts are key to our strategy and how we operate. I am very proud of everything we have accomplished and the journey we are on. Wrapping up on Slide 14, we are off to a strong start to the year with double-digit growth in orders, sales, adjusted EPS, and free cash flow. Our portfolio transformation is on track, and we expect another year of strong growth and value creation. We believe we are well positioned with the electrification, sustainability, and digitalization trends. Our future is bright. With that, I will now turn the call over to the operator to start Q&A.

Operator (participant)

We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press Star, then one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press Star, then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question comes from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Deane Dray (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Happy Friday.

Beth Wozniak (CEO)

Happy Friday, Deane.

Gary Corona (EVP and CFO)

Good morning.

Deane Dray (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Thanks. First, welcome to Gary. It was great to meet you in New York a couple of weeks ago, and best of luck to Sara. I'm not going to say it's a new role because it's not. You've been wearing the two hats, but now it's a dedicated role, and so best of luck there. I know there'll be lots of questions about tariffs.

It looked very much in line with what we were expecting, but I'd rather put the spotlight first on the data solutions business. If you could give us further color, Sara, before you ride off. The pace of orders, any push-outs, just kind of like the tone of demand there. You said double-digit growth, but how does that square with Americas being flat for the segment? Thanks.

Sara Zawoyski (President of Systems Protection)

Yeah, I would just start, Dean, by thank you. Excited to take on this new role and work with a fantastic team in Systems Protection. I would just frame it up this way. We exited 2024 with roughly $600 million sales, and we expect this to grow strong double digits this year with a strengthening back half that was alluded to in the prepared remarks.

We continue to see overall orders strong year-over-year in the quarter. Backlog grew double digits sequentially, and that's providing us some very good visibility as we head into the back half. I would also point out that this is broad-based growth, not just in liquid cooling solutions, but also in power distribution units, cable management as well. I would say characterize it as seeing an acceleration and increased demand for our solutions from our customers.

Maybe a couple more quick highlights. We expected another strong year in new product launches. I think the team is making some very good progress there, building on our strengths of performance, reliability, serviceability. That is both across liquid cooling and power distribution units, so stay tuned there.

I think the other thing we are seeing is that we are beginning to see the growth really extend from hyperscalers into the multi-tenants and enterprise space, and also growth outside of the U.S. You saw a little bit of that in that geographical commentary as well. I would say largely excited about what we are seeing, but also suggest that that growth is still largely in front of us because it is early in that investment cycle. Of course, we continue to make investments this year, really focusing on R&D and building out our lab capabilities.

Deane Dray (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

That's a great recap there. Just as a follow-up, can you talk about the latest deals Avail and Trachte, just the contribution? Are there any synergies between those businesses? Did I hear Gary correctly? Avail's contribution, a nickel and 25?

Beth Wozniak (CEO)

Yes, you did. I'll start. Recall when we acquired Trachte, we said, "This is a new platform for us." It's a different type of enclosure, if you like, with more enclosures in it. We saw that there were opportunities both on the cost synergy side because we buy a lot of steel, but our ability to transform to lean manufacturing and to drive integration.

We saw the opportunity for these types of buildings are growing not just for utilities and the grid buildout, but even for data centers. With Avail, it is now building on that platform and giving us further integration capabilities from switchgear and from bus systems, etc. We believe that it's going to be very synergistic building a more scaled platform here. Maybe I'll just have Sara talk about some of the early things that we're seeing with Trachte in terms of our wins because I think it's a very exciting space for us.

Sara Zawoyski (President of Systems Protection)

Yeah, thanks, Beth. I mean, maybe just another commentary on that end market. The other thing we're seeing is a trend of data centers really freeing up that computing space, moving that IT equipment, IT gear, backup power into control buildings. We're seeing a nice kind of white space application as well in addition to the power utilities.

Maybe a couple of things on Trachte because I think it helps frame up how we're thinking about Avail EPG. A quick reminder, while we don't put sales synergies in our deal models, it is a top area of focus for us by way of value creation. For Trachte, we're already seeing opportunity here specifically in data centers where we're able to provide control building solutions to our customers. In addition, some exciting things happening in the battery energy storage system space as well.

As it relates to cost synergies, we had talked about a five-year or a $5 million run rate cost synergy in sort of that three-year timeframe. I would suggest here that we're well on track. The sourcing team has done an excellent job here executing on the procurement savings, really ahead of plan with a focus on the metals, for example.

Another quick area of focus here for us has been lean. I'm really proud of the team. I was just visiting one of our plants here last week from Trachte. A quick data point there, since July when we acquired Trachte and as of today, that team has more than doubled the output of buildings per month in a particular value stream. This is driving capacity, productivity, ultimately better customer experience. It is just giving you a flavor for those sales synergies and cost synergies that we would love to apply as we welcome the Avail Electrical Products Group team members here with our day one celebrations yesterday.

Gary Corona (EVP and CFO)

Dean, just to jump in on financial impact, as Beth said, we love the growth. It's been growing double digits, and it'll contribute nine of the 14 points of incremental acquisition growth. EPG will be accretive in the first year. It drops an additional $0.05 to our EPS, and that's net of the interest of benefit coming out. As Sara mentioned, strong cost synergies. We also expect a nice cash tax benefit of approximately $15 million a year. From a margin perspective, it's a bit lower, but like Trachte, we expect it to improve over time.

Deane Dray (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Great. Thank you.

Gary Corona (EVP and CFO)

Thanks, Dean.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Julian Mitchell (Equity Research Analyst)

Hi, good morning. I'll echo the congratulations to Sara and welcome Gary to this call. Maybe just my first question would be around the organic sales outlook. I think you're guiding the first half organic sales up sort of low single digits year on year. The second half implied is up high single digits year on year. Just in the context of this macro backdrop, kind of help us understand confidence in that second half acceleration. I see the orders the last six months very good. Not sure how much lead time there is from those into your 2H revenue, though. Maybe any clarification around what drives the acceleration in terms of price step-up or a specific end market or segment?

Beth Wozniak (CEO)

Let me start on this. As we look forward, yes, we had strong orders growth, and we also talked about our backlog building. As we look at data solutions and power utilities in particular, here's where we see that growth accelerating. I would make a comment, Trachte, which is performing very well, we closed on that deal last July. That turns into organic growth starting the back half into August. The growth that we're seeing in those particular, that infrastructure is strong, our backlog is strong, our orders are strong. Of course, from a reported standpoint, it's the addition of EPG.

Gary Corona (EVP and CFO)

I would just add, in addition to the confidence that we have in the orders backlog and underlying growth, the comps, as you look at it, were much stronger last year in the first half versus the second half. We were up mid-single digits last year in the first half and flattish in the second half.

Julian Mitchell (Equity Research Analyst)

That's helpful. Thank you. My second question just around the operating margins. I think those were about 20% in the first quarter. It looks like the guide is embedding maybe 20% in Q2 and in the second half. I just wanted to double-check if that math is roughly right and how we should think about the tariffs affecting the margins in those quarters in the balance of the year.

Gary Corona (EVP and CFO)

Sure. I'll take that, and I'll paint the picture for the year first, and then I'll talk about Q2. On the base business, we are expecting first-half margins to be down a bit on price-cost timing from tariffs, as well as the investments that we're putting into the business to support the second half strong growth. On the base business, we expect margins to flip positive in the second half as pricing and the other mitigating productivity and supply chain actions fully take hold, and we have really, really strong growth contribution.

When we layer in Avail EPG, we are expecting margin dilution for both the Q2 and the year. Again, as we talked about with a path on improving over time, we love the growth, and it's delivering accretive top and bottom line to overall nVent, but it will impact our reported margins. On the Q2 front, we expect Q2 to be up modestly on a sequential basis, but it will be down versus a year ago, as I mentioned, primarily driven by the timing of price costs with tariffs. The most important thing we want you to take away is the actions that we're taking will put us in place to grow our base margins in the second half.

Julian Mitchell (Equity Research Analyst)

That's great. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Brian Drab with William Blair. Please go ahead.

Brian Drab (Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. First one, just on the tariff situation, if you see or if we see a reversal or the trade war die down with China, what sort of impact could that have to the upside for your 2025 and your estimate of that $120 million in tariff headwind?

Beth Wozniak (CEO)

It's really so uncertain to be able to make a comment on that. I think part of our offset with the tariff, it's pricing, productivity, and supply chain actions. I would say this, we're managing our price as we see these additional cost impacts. I think it takes longer for us in terms of any supply chain reconfiguration that we do. I'd like to say we're just neutral. That has been our goal as we go forward, is just to manage to offset the impact of tariffs through numerous actions.

Brian Drab (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. Okay. Can you just put a finer point on the order growth, good double-digit order growth, but is that organic? Which segment is contributing the most to that order growth? If you could just kind of peel that back a little bit, that would be great.

Beth Wozniak (CEO)

Yeah. As I said in my prepared remarks, organic orders were up mid-teens and strong double digits in data solutions with the rest of the business growing mid-single digits. I would characterize it this way. Where we see infrastructure, which of course is data centers and power utilities and renewables, that is where we are seeing the strongest growth. That is also where we have that backlog.

Brian Drab (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. Thanks very much.

Beth Wozniak (CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Joe Ritchie (VP and Senior Equity Analyst)

Hey, guys. Good morning.

Beth Wozniak (CEO)

Good morning.

Gary Corona (EVP and CFO)

Good morning.

Joe Ritchie (VP and Senior Equity Analyst)

Good morning. Sara, thanks so much for all the help throughout the years. Wish you the best in your kind of new role. Gary, welcome on board. I guess just my first question is, if you think about just let's just start with Avail. It's kind of surprising to me that the contribution's only 5 cents. It just seems like the margins are a little bit lower. I'm calculating to, let's just call it roughly a 10% EBITDA margin for the rest of the year. Help me just kind of understand what's going on there and what the expectation is for that business?

Gary Corona (EVP and CFO)

Yeah. Joe, I'll take that. I'll take that one. Please keep in mind that the nickel that we talked about to EPS is net of the interest that we assumed in our guide coming out. We're expecting on a growth basis, the EPS impact to be much higher than that nickel. The margins that we're seeing are higher than what you suggested as well. While the Avail EPG margins are a bit lower than the overall nVent margins, we love the top and bottom line growth. As Sara talked about with Trachte, we've got a nice plan to improve them over time.

Joe Ritchie (VP and Senior Equity Analyst)

Okay. Great. I can walk through kind of the math, I guess, offline. The following question is, look, the guidance range that you've now reset and increased, it's interesting because it seems like a lot of that is being driven by the extra point in volumes. Clearly, with the tariffs, there's going to be some incremental pricing as well.

I know you're not breaking out the pricing anymore, but I'm just curious, if the $120 million, that kind of equates to roughly four points on top line. Are you expecting to offset most of it with price? If that's the case, then ultimately, if the tariffs are in place throughout the year, would we expect the organic growth number to go up commensurately?

Beth Wozniak (CEO)

Here is the thing. As we said in our remarks, there is a lot of uncertainty. As we looked at going forward, yes, we have backlog and infrastructure is growing. As we looked at our quarter and how we performed in industrial and commercial resi, we think there is just an uncertain background there. We believe there is a balance of, yes, we will likely get more price, but maybe there is some volume impact as a result. That is how we thought of it going forward. I will let Gary add some more color to that.

Gary Corona (EVP and CFO)

Yeah. Coming into the year, our guidance assumed really primarily a volume-driven year. Based on the environment changing and the uncertainty, as Beth said, we'll have more price. I think that syncs up with your comments. As I think about the pluses and minuses on the EPS, we mentioned the Avail EPG nickel, and we mentioned the strength in data solutions and power utilities in the back half. In addition, we have fewer shares outstanding than our initial guide.

It is worth mentioning, we talked about the softness in the prepared remarks in commercial resi. As Beth said, we're managing the tariffs with our playbook, which is pricing, supply chain productivity, and some mitigating actions. That's the construct of the guide for the balance of the year.

Joe Ritchie (VP and Senior Equity Analyst)

Okay. Helpful, guys. Thank you.

Beth Wozniak (CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

We have our next question from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research. Please go ahead.

Jeff Sprague (Managing Partner and Senior Analyst)

Hey, thank you. Good morning, everyone.

Gary Corona (EVP and CFO)

Good morning.

Jeff Sprague (Managing Partner and Senior Analyst)

Good morning. Hey, just coming back to sort of the commercial resi, all the stuff that implicitly did not grow or declined, right, in the Americas. I think the comment was that you did have mid-single digit growth in those kind of recently sluggish markets. Can you just speak, though, a little bit to that side of the portfolio, what you are seeing from a demand standpoint? Do you think inventories are now in the right place? Kind of a set of questions around sort of the shorter cycle elements of the portfolio.

Beth Wozniak (CEO)

Yeah. As we came into this year, we said we expected industrial to grow, and we still do. We said commercial resi would be low single digits growth. I just updated that and said, "Now we think that's flattish," because we think this may have more of an impact coming from the tariffs in terms of just the demand side. I would say this as we look, a lot of our short-cycle business goes through distribution. Our sellout is positive there. Sell-in has been positive as well. We think that inventories are in alignment there. With the uncertainty, we just think commercial resi is going to be softer and some short-cycle maybe a little bit softer.

Jeff Sprague (Managing Partner and Senior Analyst)

Understood. Just back on tariffs, is this number you're sharing all China, or we've got some other countries? We've got steel and aluminum. Can you put a little bit finer point on just kind of the origination of the tariff number?

Beth Wozniak (CEO)

Yeah. As we looked at this, this is everything that we know as of today. Of course, things may change. One of the biggest impacts for us is the 232 on steel and aluminum. As you know, we make a lot of enclosures and other products. China and not China, just the magnitude of that tariff as an impact. We look at all other countries and the impact there. Of course, we have a lot of things where we have coverage through USMCA, could change, but what we know today. We also thought about some of the secondary or third-level tariffs through our supply base. That was how we constructed that number, as best as we could determine it at this point in time.

Jeff Sprague (Managing Partner and Senior Analyst)

Yeah. Okay. But steel and aluminum is number one, not China. Okay. Yeah, just maybe a little bit more color on what you are seeing on the power utility side. I think you've probably given us about all you want to say on data solutions. Appreciate that. Maybe just how the portfolio is coming together there, kind of trajectory of orders in that business, and how you see the year playing out a little bit more specifically.

Beth Wozniak (CEO)

Yeah. I think the exciting thing for us is where we are today. Now, with the most recent acquisition, we believe power utilities is about 20% of our overall sales. That is significant for us from where we started. It is not just the Trachte and Avail acquisition. I mean, certainly that gives us scale. What we like about those businesses is that on Avail, it has grown at double digits. It has a nice backlog into 2026.

Similarly, we have shared with you the results on Trachte, which was very strong growth and backlog building. Within our Electrical Connections segment, we also have some of the products aimed at utility space as well. They have also been growing in that double-digit range. We think overall, just with that infrastructure build-out, that is going to be a strong growth driver, just like data solutions has been for us. The two of them together really 40% of our portfolio now.

Jeff Sprague (Managing Partner and Senior Analyst)

Great. Thank you. Good luck, Sara. I hope we'll still see you around. I'm sure we will.

Beth Wozniak (CEO)

Thanks, Jeff.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Nicole DeBlase (Research Analyst)

Yeah. Good morning, thanks. And congrats to both Sara and Gary. I guess maybe just starting with a follow-up question on the comments you made, Gary, around margins for the business for the rest of the year. Does that commentary hold for both businesses? Maybe that kind of dovetails with the question of, is the tariff and price cost impact kind of spread relatively similarly across the businesses, or is there one versus the other that's more impacted?

Gary Corona (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, Nicole, there's nothing unique to call out. Both of the businesses are juggling a pretty dynamic environment. Both of the businesses are deploying the playbook that I mentioned. From a growth perspective, we will see differential growth from Systems Protection in the second half. A lot of that, a lot of that, Beth and Sara talked about in the first half. I also mentioned impacting our margins with the investments that we're making in data solutions. That'll be an entire year. That first-half investment really was to support the growth that we'll see in that business in the second half.

Nicole DeBlase (Research Analyst)

Okay. Perfect. Thank you. Just a clarification question on what you guys are doing from a pricing perspective. Is this via list price increases or surcharges or some combination of the two? Have those price increases already been fully implemented? Was that an April 1st sort of date? Thanks.

Beth Wozniak (CEO)

Yeah. As you know, over 60% of our portfolio goes through distribution. We typically will increase our prices there as long as we give them notification. Our playbook, and as we've seen through other inflationary times, is that often you're doing multiple price increases just as you're adjusting over the course of the year. We've done some price increases, and we'll monitor the situation. If there's more impact, we can certainly manage price effectively there. We also ensure with some of our more direct business that we manage price with those customers on a project-by-project basis. We're actively managing pricing right now.

Nicole DeBlase (Research Analyst)

Thanks, Beth. I'll pass it on.

Beth Wozniak (CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Nigel Coe (Managing Director and Research Analyst)

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. And Sara, congrats. And Gary, look forward to seeing you soon. Yeah, look, maybe a couple of follow-ons here. As I understand it, the organic uplift is basically the price associated with the tariffs kind of measures volume unchanged. If I put in an extra point of price, I'm getting about $30 million of extra price versus $120 million of the tariff impact. I'd like to understand a little bit better kind of the offsets against that 120.

Beth Wozniak (CEO)

I just want to start by saying it's not we assumed a shift between price and volume, but really what we drove the uplift with was just stronger orders and backlog. That was the number one reason for updating our organic guidance.

Gary Corona (EVP and CFO)

Yeah. Nigel, just to clarify again, we came into the year with a very strong volume plan. As Beth mentioned, we have now more price into the market, and our assumption is a bit less volume as we've taken our organic guidance up a point.

Nigel Coe (Managing Director and Research Analyst)

Okay. There's more than a point of price. It doesn't seem like there's four points of price to offset the $120. I'm just curious if you could maybe provide a bit more color there. Maybe moving on to the Avail acquisition, I have to agree with Joe. I'm getting more than $0.05 as well. I'm curious, on your assumption that we've got a high teens EBITDA margin, which maybe you can clarify, are there any integration expenses or investment spending against that $0.05?

Gary Corona (EVP and CFO)

Yeah. Just to reiterate, the nickel was a net impact to nVent, which is the profitability of the business coming in, but now our assumption that we'll no longer be gaining the interest benefit on the investment. It's a net number, mid-teens margins. Keep in mind, we closed the business yesterday, and we're just getting under the hood. We've got a good playbook from Trachte to improve margins. We'll plan to do that and update this group as we have more to share.

Nigel Coe (Managing Director and Research Analyst)

Yeah. Yeah. We're still getting high numbers, but we'll follow up offline. Maybe just a quick one on data solutions. I mean, if you just back into the mid-teens kind of all in core and then mid-single digits X data solutions, we're getting to 50% type numbers for data solutions. Is that in the right zone of order growth there?

Beth Wozniak (CEO)

Yeah. Nigel, they were very strong in Q1, on top of strong growth in Q1 of a year ago.

Nigel Coe (Managing Director and Research Analyst)

Right. Okay. Thanks, guys.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Vlad Bystricky with Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Vlad Bystricky (VP and Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, good morning, team. Congrats to both Gary and Sara. Thanks for taking my questions here. I guess just a quick clarification on the increased CapEx. Can you kind of dissect how much of that is related to Avail coming into the portfolio versus sort of core investments in legacy nVent, if you will?

Gary Corona (EVP and CFO)

Yeah. Vlad, as you noticed, we did take our CapEx assumptions up. The majority of the increase is really related to the core business and supporting growth, not just in the second half, but beyond. We did layer in CapEx associated with the EPG acquisition in the guide as well.

Vlad Bystricky (VP and Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. That's helpful, Gary. Appreciate it. Maybe just one follow-up. When I look at the segments, I guess can you just talk a little about the divergence between declining Americas sales and Systems Protection versus the robust Americas sales growth you saw in Electrical Connections and sort of what you think is some of the driving factors behind that divergence and how we should think about either as potentially a leading indicator going forward?

Beth Wozniak (CEO)

Yeah. I think some of that is really just the comp of a year ago because we had really strong growth a year ago out of Systems Protection, and we were a little weaker on the electrical connections side. That is really one of the primary reasons.

Gary Corona (EVP and CFO)

I wouldn't extrapolate that, Vlad, going forward.

Vlad Bystricky (VP and Equity Research Analyst)

All right. That's helpful. Appreciate it.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Scott Graham with Seaport Research. Please go ahead.

Scott Graham (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, thanks for taking my question and welcome aboard, Gary. Great to meet you a couple of weeks back. And Sara, best of luck to you. You've been truly excellent. I wanted to ask a couple of questions, and I'll just ask them both and let you go at it. The incremental margin in the quarter was sort of below what we've been seeing. Is that all inflation and investments, or was there maybe something else there? Does that improve in the second half of the year? On acquisitions, how is the pipeline and is pricing better?

Gary Corona (EVP and CFO)

I'll take the margin question in the quarter. As you mentioned, Q1 margins were down. That net productivity bar was down $17 million. As you mentioned, it reflects both the inflation offset somewhat by positive productivity, but also net of investments that are ramping for the back half. Going forward, as we mentioned, gross productivity will ramp, tariffs will ramp, and then the pricing in our playbook will flow throughout the year.

As I mentioned, excluding the EPG deal, we did expect margins to grow in the second half modestly as we get our playbook in place, as we layer in the deal. As we said, it comes in with a bit of a nice top and bottom line contribution, but it will impact margins a bit. We feel good about our margin game plan in the back half that we'll be putting into place.

Beth Wozniak (CEO)

On the acquisition M&A pipeline question, I always like to say that where we play in this Connection & Protection space, it's about a $100 billion opportunity. Remember, at 3+ billion, we're one of the larger players. It is very fragmented. I think there's a lot of opportunities. You have seen the last couple of deals that we've had. I think we've been very disciplined.

This is our eighth deal. We always want our deals to cross the weighted average cost of capital in two to three years. Avail will do that. I think for us, as we go forward, it's just looking to see that there is the right deal and the right timing and our capacity to be able to execute on it as well. We do have more capital to allocate and feel we're in a good position if there's the right opportunity for us to continue to do deals in the near term, I would say.

Scott Graham (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you.

Gary Corona (EVP and CFO)

Good. Thanks, Scott.

Beth Wozniak (CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

This concludes—sorry, go ahead.

Beth Wozniak (CEO)

No, go ahead.

Operator (participant)

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Beth Wozniak for any closing remarks.

Beth Wozniak (CEO)

Thank you for joining us today. I am proud of our performance in the first quarter. We will continue to focus on delivering for our customers, employees, and shareholders by executing on our growth strategy. We believe nVent is a top-tier high-performance electrical company well-positioned for the electrification, sustainability, and digitalization trends. Thanks again for joining us. This concludes the call.

Operator (participant)

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.