Q1 2024 Earnings Summary
- ONEOK expects strong volume growth from the Bakken region, with volumes increasing strongly throughout the year. This is driven by strong volumes as we come out of winter and with the rigs that we have running.
- The El Paso market expansion is complete and fully allocated, contributing to increased volumes in the refined products segment. For May, that expansion is already on allocation.
- Synergies from the Magellan acquisition are exceeding expectations, and the company is finding more and more synergies to execute on, giving even more momentum as we move into 2025.
- ONEOK experienced lower NGL volumes in the Permian Basin during the first quarter of 2024 due to weather-related disruptions, leading to a volume decrease.
- The company saw an increase in operating costs in the first quarter, particularly in the refined products and crude segment, due to the allocation of corporate costs for the first time to that segment, creating uncertainty about future cost trends.
- Higher operating costs were also driven by two large planned turnarounds in the first quarter, which significantly pushed up expenses; although these are one-time events, they impacted the first-quarter results.
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Guidance Increase Details
Q: What drove the guidance increase?
A: The guidance increase is driven by stronger volumes, particularly from the Bakken, and better-than-expected synergies. Volumes are increasing strongly throughout the year, especially as they come out of winter, and the refined products segment is also seeing good volume into the El Paso market, with the expansion already on allocation in May. Additionally, the company is finding more synergies across the business, giving confidence in raising guidance. -
Synergy Realization
Q: Are you getting closer to $800 million synergies?
A: Yes, the company is more confident in moving towards the higher end of synergy targets, as they continue to identify more opportunities across the business, including optimizing storage, logistics savings, and cost reductions on the G&A side. By measuring synergies closely, the numbers continue to improve. -
CapEx Outlook
Q: How should we think about normal CapEx?
A: With three major projects coming online in early 2025, CapEx is expected to trend down. Future opportunities are more manageable, with lower capital requirements and high returns. While not providing specific 2025 guidance, it's fair to say that sustainable CapEx levels will be lower than in 2024. -
AI Data Center Potential
Q: What is the opportunity with AI data centers?
A: The increasing energy demand from data centers is a potential tailwind for natural gas demand over the next half-decade and beyond. The company is in conversations with potential customers, including utilities, and exploring how their assets could serve this growing need, although it's yet to be seen exactly how infrastructure will develop. -
Bakken Volumes and Fee Rates
Q: Should we expect higher fee rates and Bakken volumes?
A: The increase in fee rates to $1.21 per Mcf is driven by inflationary escalators and volumes from certain customers, and it's expected to continue. Bakken volumes may be lumpy due to compressor additions, and while winter weather impacts are budgeted, actual impacts may vary between quarters. -
Saddlehorn Acquisition Impact
Q: Is Saddlehorn part of the guidance increase?
A: Yes, the Saddlehorn acquisition contributed to the guidance increase, but it's a small portion—about one-third of the increase is attributed to Saddlehorn. The main drivers are strength across the entire business. -
Permian Contracting and Expansion
Q: Update on Permian volumes and contracting?
A: The decrease in Permian NGL volumes was due to weather impacts in Q1. Contracting for the West Texas pipeline expansion is going as planned, with more volumes being contracted. The expansion remains on time and on budget, coming online in Q1 2025. -
Ethane Recovery and NGL Rates
Q: What's driving higher NGL bundled rates?
A: Higher NGL bundled rates, around $0.28 to $0.30 per gallon, are driven by reduced incentivized ethane recovery. Rates could go higher if volumes ramp up and capacity management requires backing out of ethane to favor C3+ products. -
M&A Strategy
Q: Are you looking for more bolt-on acquisitions?
A: The company is always looking for opportunities to expand its footprint. Currently, the focus is on integrating the recent acquisition of Magellan. Future M&A will be approached intentionally and with discipline. -
Natural Gas Pipeline Earnings
Q: Will higher gas sales from inventory continue?
A: Seasonal factors led to higher natural gas sales volumes in Q1 as part of a plan to optimize value. Depending on price spikes during electric generation in the summer or next winter, additional inventory may be sold, but this varies seasonally. -
Corporate Cost Allocation
Q: How should we model corporate cost allocation?
A: This was the first quarter allocating corporate costs to the refined products and crude segment. To understand the trend, it's advised to look over the next couple of quarters, as costs will proportionately carry their fair share based on EBITDA contribution. -
NGL Throughput Volumes
Q: What's driving the NGL volume range?
A: The range in NGL throughput volumes is largely driven by ethane recovery, influenced by price spreads and natural gas prices. Other factors include strong Bakken volumes and increased drilling in high GPM areas of the Mid-Continent. -
Conway to Mont Belvieu Spreads
Q: Outlook on Conway to Mont Belvieu spreads?
A: While spreads have contracted, there are still opportunities to lock in favorable rates. They may not widen to double digits due to ample capacity between basins but are acceptable for meeting expectations and possibly exceeding guidance.