Old Second Bancorp - Q2 2023
July 20, 2023
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for Old Second Bancorp Inc.'s 2nd quarter 2023 earnings call. On the call today is Jim Eccher, the company's chairman, president, and CEO; Brad Adams, the company's CFO; and Gary Collins, the vice chairman of our board. I will start with a reminder that Old Second's comments today will contain forward-looking statements about the company's business, strategies, and prospects, which are based on management's existing expectations in the current economic environment. These statements are not a guarantee of future performance, and results may differ materially from those projected. Management would ask you to refer to the company's SEC filings for a full discussion of the company's risk factors. The company does not undertake any duty to update such forward-looking statements. On today's call, we will also be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures.
These non-GAAP measures are described in cells with their GAAP counterparts in our earnings release, which is available on our website at oldsecond.com, on the homepage and under the Investor Relations tab. Now, I will turn it over to Mr. Jim Eccher.
Jim Eccher (Chairman, President, and CEO)
Good morning. Thank you for joining us. As customary, I have several prepared opening remarks. I'll give my overview of the quarter and then turn it over to Brad for additional details. I will conclude with certain summary comments and thoughts about the future before we open it up for questions. Net income was $25.6 million, or $0.56 per diluted share in the second quarter of 2023. Adjusted net income was also $25.6 million, $0.56 per diluted share in the second quarter. This represents our second consecutive quarter of record earnings. On the same adjusted basis, return on assets was 1.74%. Second quarter 2023 return on average tangible common equity was 25.3%. The tax equivalent efficiency ratio was 46.84%.
Second quarter earnings were negatively impacted by a $1.5 million pre-tax security loss on strategic security sales, as well as $362,000 of accelerated senior note issuance costs as we redeemed the $45 million outstanding senior note. The combined impact of these two items reduced diluted earnings per share by $0.03. Our financial results continue to be favorably impacted by elevated market interest rates, with an $18.3 million or 40.5% increase in net interest income in the second quarter compared to the prior like quarter. Due to manageable funding cost increases, along with significant expansion in asset yields across the balance sheet.
The second quarter reflected modest loan growth of $12.2 million over the linked period and $390.5 million, or 11%, over the same period last year. Loan prepayments accelerated and were stronger in the second quarter compared to the first quarter of 2023, resulting in net origination activity reduction relative to the prior quarter. Activity within loan committee moderated for the majority of the second quarter, although more recently, we have seen activity begin to show signs of significant slowing. Net interest margin contracted this quarter largely due to increased funding costs on deposits due to increases in deposit pricing and certain time deposit product specials, as well as the accelerated issuance costs associated with the redemption of our senior notes.
Loan yields continued to expand during the quarter, increasing 21 basis points over the linked quarter and 174 basis points year-over-year. The NIM remained strong at 4.64% for the second quarter, compared to 4.74% in the second quarter of 2023. The margin has benefited year-over-year from balance sheet mix improvements, the impact of rising rates on the variable portion of the loan portfolio, and continuing loan growth in 2023. The loan-to-deposit ratio is now at 85%, compared to 82% last quarter and 68% as of June 30th, 2022. As we noted last quarter, our focus now has shifted to balance sheet optimization. I'll let Brad talk about that in a moment.
Credit metrics were essentially stable, as nonaccrual loans decreased $2.6 million, or 4.1%, due to upgrades and paydowns on various loans, while classified loans ticked up $2.3 million, or 1.8%, to $127.6 million. Ongoing evaluations of commercial real estate and office have not revealed significant deterioration at this point, and the trends within criticized assets are significantly more favorable this quarter relative to last quarter. I believe we will have a few recently downgraded credits sufficiently addressed in the third quarter and could see more favorable trends present themselves going forward. Clearly, our focus remains on monitoring potential weakness in commercial real estate and specifically office. We have stressed all maturing credits under renewal rates and believe we don't see broad-based risk.
We have been proactive on refreshing valuations. As a result, our outlook for credit has not changed. I think it's important to remember that half of our commercial real estate exposure is owner-occupied, which we believe is unusual for a bank our size. Our office exposure is only about 5% of the portfolio. We simply don't have a lot of this here, but we continue to watch it very closely. We recorded net charge-offs of $505,000 in the second quarter, compared to $740,000 of net charge-offs in the first quarter. Other real estate owned reflected a $494,000 decrease in the second quarter to end at $761,000 in total, based on three property sales in the quarter, net of one OREO transfer.
The allowance for credit losses on loans increased to $55.3 million as of June 30th, from $53.4 million at the end of the previous quarter, which is 1.4% of total loans as of June 30th, 2023, consistent with the 1.3% total ACL to gross loans as of March 31st. Unemployment and GDP forecasts used in future loss rate assumptions remain fairly static from last quarter. I think investors should know that we remain confident in the strength of our portfolios, and the credits in question are the same ones that we have discussed previously. We continue to watch those closely.
Non-interest income continued to perform well, excluding losses on security sales discussed earlier, non-interest income increased to $745,000 compared to the first quarter, driven by gains on MSR mark-to-market adjustments, both management income and an increase in credit card or card-related income. Pre-tax losses of $1.5 million on security sales in the second quarter were incurred related to strategic repositioning within certain security types in our portfolio. Expense discipline continues to be strong, we believe our efficiency is simply outstanding at this point. As we look forward, we are continued on doing more of the same, which is managing liquidity, building commercial loan origination capability for the long term.
The goal is obviously to continue to build towards a more stable long-term balance sheet mix, featuring more loans and less securities in order to maintain the returns on equity commensurate with our recent performance. I'll now turn it over to Brad for more comments.
Brad Adams (CFO)
Thank you, Jim. Net interest income decreased slightly to $63.6 million for the quarter ended relative to the prior quarter of $64.1 million. Increased to $18.3 million or 41% from the year-ago quarter. Loan yields continued to grow in the second quarter, though at a slower pace than recent periods, and securities yields remained relatively flat since last quarter. Total yield on interest-earning assets increased 20 basis points over the linked quarter to 539 basis points, partially mitigated by a 15 basis point increase in the cost of interest-bearing deposits and a 47 basis point increase to interest-bearing liabilities in aggregate. The end result was a 10-basis point decrease in the NIM for the last quarter to 4.64 from 4.74.
As noted earlier, we redeemed the outstanding senior debt issuance on June 30th, which resulted in an acceleration of the deferred issuance costs. This had an approximate three basis point negative impact on the margin during the quarter. Going forward, the senior note redemption, net of an assumed 45 basis point or I'm sorry, $45 million, dollar for dollar replacement funding costs, would add about three basis points to the quarter with that being gone. Deposit flows this quarter showed modest leakage on the high end, along with typical seasonal decline that we always see based on tax payments for personal and business customers and commercial customers rolling out new activities in the spring.
The nature and character of the declines thus far largely looks and feels like an inverse move of the flows into the bank we saw beginning in the latter half of 2020 and continuing through 2021. Fortunately, we have the liquidity and the balance sheet flexibility to adapt. We'll continue to remix and optimize rather than chase high beta deposits. We still aren't lurching at anything, but we have made some fairly significant progress in reducing asset sensitivity over the last year, including reducing variable rate securities from more than 1/3 to just over 20% of the portfolio. There has been some significant earnings and margin give up associated with doing this, but it's the right time to return to a more normal duration profile within the portfolio.
With the level of inversion in the curve, we still aren't in a hurry to place large bets on the path of interest rates. Duration is slowly being added to reduce asset sensitivity in numerous ways. Effective duration on the bond portfolio is now an approximate 3.0 years, up significantly from six months ago. The loan-to-deposit ratio remains low. Our ability to source liquidity from the portfolio has increased relative to the color we gave you last quarter. It seems higher for longer has finally seen its way into the zeitgeist. I would like to remind you that longer duration portfolios than Old Second's would have seen relative outperformance to ours, given the sharp inversion from the short end. The mark on the securities portfolio remains high. It will be recaptured relatively quickly.
The net result is that Old Second should continue to build capital very quickly, as evidenced by the 34-basis point improvement in the TCE ratio over the linked quarter, which, combined with the 59 basis points last quarter, that means we've added 93 basis points of TCE in just six months. As we sit here today, we have approximately $649 million in undrawn borrowing capacity and additional $400 million in unpledged securities. In short, liquidity at the bank remains excellent, and the holding company is in a strong position as well. We may seek permission to resume stock repurchases this year as well. Margin trends from here are projected to be relatively stable over the remainder of the year, with benefits from one more rate hike and continued asset repricing not expected to outpace the increased reliance on overnight borrowings by much.
Provision for credit losses on loans of $2.4 million was recorded during the quarter, and net provision for credit losses was $2 million in the second quarter of 2023, due to a $427,000 reversal of provision on unfunded commitments during the quarter. I would expect loan growth to be roughly consistent with provision growth over the near term, though that could change with significant worsening in the macro environment. Non-interest expense declined $1.1 million from the previous quarter, driven by lower salaries and employee benefits, as well as computer and data processing expenses. I continue to expect quarterly wages and benefits to be between $22 million and $23 million going forward in the near term. Given the revenue performance, employee investment costs have been running high, but we will maintain the ability to dial it back as conditions warrant.
With that, I'd like to turn the call back over to Jim.
Jim Eccher (Chairman, President, and CEO)
Thanks, Brad. In closing, we are confident in how we've constructed our balance sheet and the opportunities that are ahead for us. We are paying very close attention to credit and expenses. We believe our underwriting has remained disciplined, our funding position is strong. We have the balance sheet and liquidity flexibility to excel in a higher rate environment. Capital levels should continue to grow and maintain levels above targets, we will look to be aggressive in adding talent and relationships. That concludes our prepared comments this morning. I'll turn it over to the moderator, we can open it up to questions.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. At this time, we will be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. If a participant using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment please, while we poll for questions. Thank you. Our first question is coming from Terry McEvoy with Stephens. You may proceed.
Terry McEvoy (Managing Director and Research Analyst)
Hi, thanks for taking my questions. Good morning. Jim, in one of your prepared comments, you said, and as you were talking about the CRE portfolio, there'd be more downgrades in the third quarter, but you expected a favorable outcome. Could you just maybe run through that statement one more time so I understand exactly what you're getting at correctly?
Jim Eccher (Chairman, President, and CEO)
Yeah, no, just the opposite, Terry. We're starting to realize some resolutions on some previously downgraded credits, and we expect, and I've already seen a few upgrades in this quarter, so in the third quarter, so things are trending in the right direction.
Terry McEvoy (Managing Director and Research Analyst)
Okay, good. It's been a long morning already. Maybe, Brad, a question for you, your interest-bearing deposit costs were really low, just 40 basis points in the second quarter. As you think about the second half of this year and just the competition for deposits, where do you see that trending and what's maybe baked into your kind of comments on the margin?
Brad Adams (CFO)
I think it'll tick up a little bit. I don't think it'll be as big a move as we saw, first quarter to second. Most of that increase happened in March. We have a big advantage here in that, I think most people realize now how granular the deposit base is. It just doesn't require a lot of movement. I think we will see some uptick. I think that we are exceptionally comfortable at a level, under $500 million in borrowing, right, borrowing position. If it gets above that, we'll probably put out more CD pricing. Consistent with that belief, I don't think margin does a whole lot. I would call it plus or minus five basis points here.
It may be a little bit better in the third with a rate hike or, and with a little bleeding over into the fourth. We're going to continue to sell down the variable portion of that securities portfolio, which is a significant give up. It seems that others have come around to the idea of higher for longer, and so now there is a bid on that, whereas before, when we bought it, we were the only ones that wanted it. As everybody thought rate cuts were coming this year, nobody wanted to touch it then either. Our ability to move down that position is markedly better today than it was even a month or two ago, and we'll continue to do that.
Margin upside will probably be given up on just kind of reducing asset sensitivity at this point in the cycle.
Terry McEvoy (Managing Director and Research Analyst)
Maybe a quick follow-up? What do you need to see or hear to begin repurchasing stock? Brad, you kind of hinted at it, but is it remediation on some of those CRE properties? Is it confidence on funding costs? What are you waiting for or looking at?
Brad Adams (CFO)
I mean, we're building back capital very quickly here. Obviously, I think everybody's aware of how punitive the purchase accounting marks are in an M&A type environment, it's just a question of what the best return on marginal capital generation is. There are scenarios whereby M&A can work. There are far more scenarios where it doesn't. I think people know we're disciplined on that front and won't do anything dumb. It's a function of things continuing to look poor in terms of other investment opportunities and the speed at which capital builds. Also, just the overall credit outlook. That feels pretty good. We've got a whole heck of a big reserve on the office exposures. We feel pretty good about where we sit.
Terry McEvoy (Managing Director and Research Analyst)
Great. Thanks again for taking my questions.
Brad Adams (CFO)
Yes, sir.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question is coming from Nathan Race with Piper Sandler. You may proceed.
Nathan Race (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Yep. Hi, guys. Good morning, Nate.
Brad Adams (CFO)
Hey, Nate.
Nathan Race (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Brad, I was hoping you could just expand a little bit on your margin outlook for the back half of this year. I think you spoke to kind of a relatively stable outlook from the 2Q level. In your prepared remarks, you mentioned, you know, the ongoing reliance of the short-term borrowers that were added in the quarter. Is it fair to assume those remain on balance sheet, or I guess, is it more dependent on just how deposit flows trend in the back half of the year? How do you guys manage book?
Brad Adams (CFO)
The overnight borrowing position is more consistent with the average balance sheet than it is with the period end. I think we mentioned we paid off that senior debt issuance on June 30th. We had a whole heck of a lot of money moving around that day, so we borrowed a bit more than we typically would just to make sure the liquidity was there. That was a one-day thing. We are closer to $400 million than we are to $500 million for the majority of this month so far. That feels fine. I think, you know, some of it is just strategic at this point. Obviously, another rate hike would benefit us. There's no doubt about that.
The question is, the speed at which we would continue to reduce the variable portion of the portfolio. That obviously mitigates some of the overnight borrowing levels if we continue to do that, because the loan growth, the loan demand out there is waning significantly these days. That happens, I guess, when cost of funds are above eight. I think that embedded in that kind of margin outlook is that we'll continue to bring down asset sensitivity, Nate.
Nathan Race (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Understood. Makes sense.
Brad Adams (CFO)
Yeah.
Nathan Race (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Maybe a question, when you were speaking to earlier, just expecting some resolutions or having some resolutions, during the third quarter, are those specifically tied to some of the, CRE loans that were moved to classified last quarter?
Brad Adams (CFO)
Yeah, they are. We're seeing sponsors for these credits step up and either inject more capital or providing payment reserves. We're pleasantly optimistic that we're going to be able to resolve a couple of our larger ones this quarter. There could be another property sold so we get our arms around this. To Brad's point earlier, we continue to increase our reserve particularly in office and feel we have an ample reserve particularly against our Chicago office portfolio.
Nathan Race (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Okay, great. Brad, I appreciate the guidance in terms of salary costs in the back half of this year, but just kind of any ballpark estimate for the overall run rate for 3Q and 4Q, relative to what I thought was a really good quarter cost controls in 2Q.
Brad Adams (CFO)
I think we'll see kind of the back-office expense for computer and data processing kick back up a little bit. We're going to add about $300,000 a quarter in terms of occupancy expense, which will come online in September or October. And that reflects kind of stepping into some new space that takes into account the ongoing needs of the New Old Second post West Suburban acquisition. And it coincides with us basically stepping out of every piece of excess real estate that we got in that acquisition over the last six months. Really pleased with both the speed that we've gotten out of those real estate positions and also the execution on it. It's, it's been really well done. And this isn't my backhanded way of complimenting myself. The team did a great job.
Just to put a little color on that, Nate, we've disposed of and closed 16 properties.
Nathan Race (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Mm-hmm.
Brad Adams (CFO)
Since the beginning of 2022. That includes three branches just in this quarter. We've we're well ahead of schedule on cost saves, and we expect to have some, you know, some lift out of that going forward. Inside two years post-deal, it's really starting to look and feel like 1 bank, and a lot of the kind of the cultural stuff that we've been measuring as well is trending solidly in the right direction. You know, hats off to the team on what we've been able to accomplish, both from a technical conversion standpoint and also a cultural conversion standpoint. It's been pretty good.
Nathan Race (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
That's good to hear. trying to put all those pieces together, probably like $36 million-$37 million is a good run rate.
Brad Adams (CFO)
I think so. I think we'll be a little better than that in the third quarter, and then the fourth, that feels about right.
Nathan Race (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Okay. Great. I believe that's all I had. I'll step back. Thank you.
Brad Adams (CFO)
Thanks, Nate.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question is coming from Chris McGratty with KBW. You may proceed.
Chris McGratty (Head of US Bank Research)
Oh, great. Good morning.
Brad Adams (CFO)
Morning, Chris.
Chris McGratty (Head of US Bank Research)
Brad, just going back to the margin for a second. Expectations are obviously for a hike next in the next week or so, and then steady for the rest of the year. 2024 has, you know, anywhere between three, four cuts. Interested in kind of how you see if that scenario played out, what your downside risk to NIM would be, given that you've been reducing the rate sensitivity? Like, how much NIM is at risk if we get the forward curve?
Brad Adams (CFO)
All right. You're, you're firmly into gut feel territory here. I'm probably being overly conservative if we get that rate hike next week in terms of what margin will do, but I think that's prudent at this point. In terms of rate cuts next year, you know, let's say soft landing lives as an animal that actually exists in nature, and assume that it's kind of 25 basis points spread over the year. Let me first say that I don't envision a scenario where we go back to zero. In a zero rate scenario, Old Second loses its core advantage, which is the deposit base, and basically, the crappier funding you have, the better you do in that scenario.
In the absolute zero scenario, we probably run to a 3.50% margin from the 4.70% we're hanging out at today. In a scenario where they're modest and slow cuts, we would trend towards kind of 4.00%-4.25%, would be my guess. It would take a while to get there. It would be slow.
Chris McGratty (Head of US Bank Research)
Sure. Thanks for that. You mentioned you have a big reserve on the office. Have you quantified that, or could you quantify what the actual, is there a percentage on the office?
Jim Eccher (Chairman, President, and CEO)
It's north of 10%.
Brad Adams (CFO)
On, on Chicago.
Jim Eccher (Chairman, President, and CEO)
The Chicago office, which is where we see the most stress. We only have one suburban office property that is under duress, and we've got pretty good size reserve on that as well.
Chris McGratty (Head of US Bank Research)
That's a big number. What's the dollar of the Chicago office?
Jim Eccher (Chairman, President, and CEO)
I have that. I think it's roughly, let's see. It's $12 million, eight-story building. We are seeing that's one I commented on last quarter, Chris. We are encouraged to see some leasing activity finally pick up on that. We've also got a good sponsor that's looking to secure new equity to assist with some of the buildouts. We're optimistic this one's turning in the right direction.
Chris McGratty (Head of US Bank Research)
Jim, this is the one you identified last quarter. This is the 10% is on this specific credit, right? There's.
Jim Eccher (Chairman, President, and CEO)
No, on the whole the whole office portfolio.
Chris McGratty (Head of US Bank Research)
Oh, all right.
Brad Adams (CFO)
5% of the portfolio is in office, and we have. This is aggregate across both downtown and suburban. We've got a 5.5% reserve on the entire portfolio.
Jim Eccher (Chairman, President, and CEO)
On the entire office portfolio. Over 10 on Chicago office.
Brad Adams (CFO)
Yes. On downtown office.
Chris McGratty (Head of US Bank Research)
All right. That's exactly what I was looking for. Thank you.
Brad Adams (CFO)
Yep.
Jim Eccher (Chairman, President, and CEO)
Yeah.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question is coming from Jeff Rulis with D.A. Davidson. You may proceed.
Jeff Rulis (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Thanks. Good morning. Just wanted to check in on the. I think you covered kind of rate pretty well, but the deposit runoff, you alluded to that being pretty front-end loaded. I guess, how has that trended, you know, I guess, you know, later in the quarter and into the third quarter and expectations for balances, really, not so much rate, but the funding balances on the deposit side?
Jim Eccher (Chairman, President, and CEO)
Deposits have been more than stable for the better part of a month and a half, so half of the second quarter, the latter half of the second quarter was entirely stable. The thing that I'd like people to lead with in terms of the character of this is that, you know, back when deposits were running in second half of 2020 through 2021, I wasn't able to tell anybody what was happening. It was just kind of coming in over the top across a very granular base. The same thing is happening on the outflow. It's just coming off the top of a very granular base, and it's just $200 here and there on every account.
It's not any big trend, it's just kind of leakage, it kind of mirrors both the run-up, then it also is the mirror image or reverse image of what's happening in consumer debt overall. It just feels like a liquidity burn, you know. Nothing's really changed in terms of what we're doing, and we're fortunate enough that we just have very few depositors that have more than $5 million in the bank. We're just kind of a different duck in that regard.
Jeff Rulis (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Got you. If I could, do you have, either specific numbers or just a general trend, looking for the monthly margin as you progress through the quarter? Obviously, you had some sort of puts and takes.
Jim Eccher (Chairman, President, and CEO)
Our margin's not doing much, Jeff. That's what I'm trying to communicate is that 1st quarter, given day count, is kind of peak margin if nothing else changes on a balance sheet. The delta, absent the debt payoff impact in the 1st quarter, was purely unforecastable. I would have said flat, and in all realistic measures of anything, it is entirely stable. If we hadn't sold the securities, we would have reported an up margin on the quarter.
Jeff Rulis (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Got it. Okay, pretty straightforward. I'll step back. Thanks.
Jim Eccher (Chairman, President, and CEO)
All right.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question is coming from David Long with Raymond James. You may proceed.
David Long (Managing Director)
Good morning, guys.
Jim Eccher (Chairman, President, and CEO)
Morning.
David Long (Managing Director)
Just wanted to get a little more color on your appetite to hire and acquire more talent. You've got a declining loan demand, but obviously some disruption in the market. How do you balance, you know, the opportunities in the market with, from a business perspective, with the opportunities to bring on talent?
Jim Eccher (Chairman, President, and CEO)
David, good question. I mean, we tend to try to take the long view. If we find an end market team, you know, we're gonna, we're gonna make that investment because we are obviously making it, you know, for the long haul. You're right. I mean, loan demand today is certainly pretty tepid. We are seeing some demand in a couple of verticals. But, you know, we expect the balance of this year to be pretty muted as far as funding a lot of new business. But we will continue to actively look for new talent.
David Long (Managing Director)
When you're looking for talent, what are the qualities specifically you're looking for? Do you prefer, you know, bankers with a large bank past or community bank past? What is the best situation for you guys in that regard?
Jim Eccher (Chairman, President, and CEO)
Yeah. you know, what, where we're seeing, you know, significant growth is still from our Chicago market. just by way of metrics, you're talking about lenders from probably larger banks that are looking for a bank that has, you know, the technology and the ability to get deals done. Quite frankly, are looking for a different experience than a larger bank. That's typically where we've seen the opportunities to hire.
David Long (Managing Director)
Got it. Are your expectations on hiring that built into your discussions on expense outlook, correct?
Jim Eccher (Chairman, President, and CEO)
It is, yes.
David Long (Managing Director)
Okay. All right.
Jim Eccher (Chairman, President, and CEO)
Great.
David Long (Managing Director)
Thanks, guys.
Jim Eccher (Chairman, President, and CEO)
Thanks, Dave.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question is coming from Brian Martin with Janney Montgomery. You may proceed.
Brian Martin (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Hey, good morning, guys.
Jim Eccher (Chairman, President, and CEO)
Hey, Brian. Good morning.
Brian Martin (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Hey, just one question on the clarification on that office, either Jim or Brad. The total office exposure in dollars is how much, and then just the split between Chicago and others, just to make sure I'm clear on what that was?
Jim Eccher (Chairman, President, and CEO)
Yeah, we've got about $60 million in office exposure in Chicago. Obviously not very much. Our total office exposure is about $250 million. Of that $60 million, we've got about 10% of it reserved in Chicago.
Brian Martin (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Gotcha. Okay. All right. The other piece is the others. Okay. Brad, your comments about the margin and the, as far as in terms of additional security sales, I guess, can you give any color on, you know, how much you expect further to do on that, or just timing or just, you know, just kind of your outlook there?
Brad Adams (CFO)
Kind of feels like what we've done for the last two or three quarters. It's been slow and steady. I was completely flummoxed and mystified by the whole by the shape of the consensus market curve on Fed Funds last quarter. I thought everybody was nuts. Now I think people are getting a bit carried away on the higher for longer thing. I'd like to believe that rates step down gradually, but I've yet to see that animal in real life, so we'll see. Our goal is to just return the securities portfolio to what it's supposed to be, which is kind of more like a 10% variable securities type position before the rug pull. I don't pretend to know when that is, but typically a securities portfolio for us is the warehouse for duration.
We'll get back there hopefully before the rug pull, but hopefully not too much before the rug pull. We'll see.
Brian Martin (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Okay. what % is variable today on that, Brad?
Brad Adams (CFO)
Just over 20%. It peaked out around 35% when nobody thought inflation was a real thing. We were buying the stuff hand over fist.
Brian Martin (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Yeah. Gotcha. Okay, just on your comments on the loan growth being a little bit softer, Jim, you said there were some verticals that were doing better, and maybe just a little comment on that? Just what was kind of the payoffs versus production in the quarter? Kind of how did that shake out?
Jim Eccher (Chairman, President, and CEO)
Yeah. We had $12 million in growth, Brian, in the quarter. Payoffs and paydowns were 2x what they were in the first quarter. I think we had over $120 million in paydowns and payoffs. From here on out, you know, you know, we're just not expecting a lot of loan demand. As Brad mentioned, with cost of capital, you know, over 8% and probably going higher here next week, we're certainly seeing, you know, a lot of our commercial clients just pull back. We're still seeing pretty good deal activity in sponsor finance and in our leasing verticals, but everything else is really slowing down.
Brian Martin (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Okay. Do you expect the payouts to slow? I guess, I hear your comments about production, but just as far as the payouts, if they were to.
Jim Eccher (Chairman, President, and CEO)
Payoffs are hard to predict, Brian. I mean, normally in a rising rate environment, you would expect lower payoffs, right?
Brian Martin (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Right.
Jim Eccher (Chairman, President, and CEO)
We had accelerated payoffs last quarter due to several large property sales. I would expect third quarter payouts to moderate off second quarter levels.
Brian Martin (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Got you. Okay. As far as the potential improvement, I mean, do you expect the improvement in the non-performance to be material over the next couple of quarters? I don't know, you know, certainly the timing, it sounds like there's some already occurring.
Brad Adams (CFO)
We wouldn't mention it if we didn't. Yeah, I think if people consider the move up last quarter material, it won't be that fast.
Brian Martin (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Right.
Brad Adams (CFO)
I think it'll matter to people, yeah.
Brian Martin (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Yeah. Okay. That's, okay, second half of the year then. Brad, that your comment, Brad, just on the margin, your comments include, you know, that security's reducing the sensitivity, incorporates in also the senior debt payoff, too, which would give you a benefit. I think you said it was three basis points?
Brad Adams (CFO)
Yeah. That three basis point improvement obviously assumes that it's the $45 million is replaced dollar for dollar at Fed Funds overnight rate. To the extent that we're able to do better than that on the replacement funding, which I'm hopeful we are, it could be even more substantial than that.
Brian Martin (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Yeah. Okay. Your slide guidance includes that benefit with some give up.
Brad Adams (CFO)
Yeah.
Brian Martin (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
On the, on the other stuff, so okay.
Brad Adams (CFO)
Yeah.
Brian Martin (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Cool.
Brad Adams (CFO)
Yeah.
Brian Martin (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Got you. Okay. Thanks for taking the questions, guys. I appreciate it.
Jim Eccher (Chairman, President, and CEO)
All right, thanks, Brian.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. We have reached the end of our question and answer session, so I will now turn back over to Mr. Eccher for any closing remarks.
Jim Eccher (Chairman, President, and CEO)
Okay. Thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning. We look forward to speaking with you again, next quarter. Goodbye.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. This concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.