Executive Summary

Q3 2025 delivered adjusted EPS of $3.20 on $2.69B sales, a modest EPS beat vs consensus and a revenue miss; adjusted operating margin was 10.2% with strong Vocational execution offsetting Access weakness .
Access revenue fell 18.6% YoY on lower North America demand and higher discounts; Transport improved on NGDV ramp and a one-time $25M JLTV IP license, while warranty costs were an elevated headwind .
2025 guidance was revised: GAAP EPS $9.75–$10.25 (prior $10.25), adjusted EPS $10.50–$11.00 (prior ~$11.00), and sales $10.3–$10.4B (prior ~$10.6B) due to lower anticipated volume in Transport and Access .
Management highlighted tariff headwinds ($30–$40M in 2025, mostly Q4), Access discounting (3–4%), and NGDV ramp challenges; cash flow outlook was raised to $450–$550M and CapEx trimmed $50M, underpinning capital return (repurchased $90.6M shares, declared $0.51 dividend) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

“Adjusted earnings per share of $3.20 and an adjusted operating margin of 10.2 percent” underscored resilient execution amid a challenging environment .
Vocational revenue +18.9% YoY to $968.0M with adjusted margin 15.6%; throughput improved in municipal fire apparatus and airport products grew 17% YoY, reflecting favorable price/cost and segment mix .
Transport margin improved to 6.2% (from 2.1% YoY) aided by a one-time $25M JLTV IP license and improved pricing; management reiterated commitment to NGDV ramp and highlighted >4 million miles of postal vehicle operations .

What Went Wrong

Access sales -18.6% YoY to $1.11B on weaker North America demand and higher discounts; Access adjusted margin fell to 11.0% (from 15.5%) .
Tariffs now expected to cost $30–$40M in 2025 (mostly Q4), prompting early 2026 price discussions; Access discounting was “about a 3% to 4% all-in level” in Q3 .
Elevated warranty expense (including ~$13M one-time Transport charge) and NGDV ramp below expectations; Q3 NGDV revenue $146.3M vs $107.1M in Q2, but production still normalizing .

Financial Results

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$2.313	$2.732	$2.689
Diluted EPS ($)	$1.72	$3.16	$3.04
Adjusted EPS ($)	$1.92	$3.41	$3.20
Operating Margin (%)	7.6%	10.7%	9.7%
Adjusted Operating Margin (%)	8.3%	11.5%	10.2%

Segment sales ($USD Millions):

Segment Sales	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Access	$957.1	$1,256.0	$1,109.7
Vocational	$866.8	$969.7	$968.0
Transport	$463.0 (Defense) + $50.3 (Delivery) = $513.3 total	$372.0 (Defense) + $107.1 (Delivery) = $479.1	$441.6 (Defense) + $146.3 (Delivery) = $587.9

Segment operating income ($USD Millions):

Segment OI	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Access	$103.1	$181.6	$118.0
Vocational	$117.8	$147.3	$141.7
Transport	$0.6	$17.8	$36.6
Corporate & Other	($46.1)	($55.0)	($35.9)

KPIs and balance sheet:

KPI	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Consolidated Backlog ($USD Billions)	$14.616	$14.226	$13.690
Access Backlog ($USD Millions)	$1,804.8	$1,189.0	$721.2
Vocational Backlog ($USD Millions)	$6,340.1	$6,268.8	$6,400.8
Transport Backlog ($USD Millions)	$6,400.6	$6,709.0	$6,470.2
NGDV Revenue ($USD Millions)	$50.3	$107.1	$146.3
Share Repurchases ($USD Millions)	$28.7	$40.0	$90.6
Dividend per share ($)	$0.51	$0.51	$0.51

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
EPS (GAAP)	FY 2025	$10.25	$9.75–$10.25	Lowered (low end -$0.50)
EPS (Adjusted)	FY 2025	~$11.00	$10.50–$11.00	Lowered (low end -$0.50)
Net Sales	FY 2025	~$10.6B	$10.3–$10.4B	Lowered
Operating Cash Flow	FY 2025	Prior outlook not disclosed; +$50M vs prior	$450–$550M	Raised $50M
CapEx	FY 2025	Prior level not disclosed	Lowered by $50M vs prior	Reduced
Dividend	Quarterly	$0.51	$0.51	Maintained

Drivers: Lower anticipated volume in Transport and Access informed sales/EPS reduction; tariffs and Access demand caution weighed on outlook, while tighter capital spending raised cash flow expectations .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2025)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
Tariffs/Macro	Q1: direct EPS impact up to ~$1.00, with up to $0.50 offset via cost actions . Q2: anticipated operating income impact up to ~$50M based on rates at the time .	2025 impact $30–$40M (mostly Q4); planning 2026 price increases; pursuing supply chain/tariff engineering mitigations .	Headwind moderating vs Q1 early estimate; mitigation and pricing actions in motion.
Access demand/pricing	Q1: lower NA volume, higher discounts; double-digit margin . Q2: Europe weakness; discounting and CAT telehandler license expiration noted .	Q3: Access sales -18.6%; discounts ~3–4%; healthy utilization but CapEx caution; local-for-local strategy vs import competition .	Near-term cautious; structure supports resilience; mix improving in some sub-categories.
NGDV ramp	Q1: ramp progressing; program risks and deferred costs disclosed . Q2: delivery vehicle revenue ramping; Transport OI improving .	Q3: NGDV revenue $146.3M; challenges normalizing in new plant; targeting full-rate production by year-end .	Sequential progress; still below earlier pace; execution focus continues.
Vocational throughput	Q1/Q2: throughput and pricing improved; backlog elevated .	Q3: improved municipal fire throughput; airport products +17% YoY; strong orders ($1.1B) .	Sustained strength; mix favorable; backlog reduction expected over time.
Autonomy/Defense tech	Q1/Q2: defense contracts (FMTV extension), evolving strategy .	Q3: introduced FMAV family; DeepFires collaboration with RTX/Forterra; $89M PLS A2 autonomy-ready order .	Growing autonomy portfolio; potential future differentiation in Transport.

Management Commentary

CEO: “Oshkosh delivered solid third quarter results in a difficult environment, with adjusted earnings per share of $3.20 and an adjusted operating margin of 10.2 percent… strong execution in our Vocational segment… Access delivered double-digit operating margin while navigating near-term challenging market conditions” .
CEO on outlook: “We are revising our 2025 adjusted earnings per share guidance to a range of $10.50 to $11.00” .
CFO on tariffs: “Tariffs for this year… $30 to $40 million… most of that being in the fourth quarter… we would project a full-year impact [in 2026]… pricing would occur in 2026 against that” .
CFO on cash flow and capital: “Our cash flow outlook of $450 to $550 million, up $50 million from our previous outlook… we plan to continue with share repurchases through the balance of the year” .
CEO on NGDV: “We now have over 4 million miles driven by postal workers… we… are targeting line rates that support our annual production goals” .

Q&A Highlights

Access demand and pricing: customers cautious near term; discounting ~3–4% in Q3; 2026 pricing discussions underway to offset tariffs .
Tariffs mitigation: multi-faceted approach (supply chain negotiations, tariff engineering, classification) before pricing; aim to minimize customer impact .
NGDV ramp: Q3 NGDV revenue below earlier expectations; aiming for full-rate production by year-end; sequential delivery revenue up 37% vs Q2 .
Vocational incrementals: implied ~40% incremental margin in Q4; ~33% for full year per guidance context .
Warranty: one-time Transport warranty charge (~$13M) tied to 2021–2022 supply chain-era builds; not ongoing; unrelated to NGDV .
Access orders: Q3 book-to-bill ~0.6 (seasonally normal), but fourth-quarter order timing could slip into January amid price negotiations .

Estimates Context

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Billions)	$2.407*	$2.662*	$2.832*
Actual Revenue ($USD Billions)	$2.313	$2.732	$2.689
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)	$2.039*	$2.947*	$3.097*
Adjusted EPS (Actual) ($)	$1.92	$3.41	$3.20
EBITDA Consensus Mean ($USD Millions)	$249.9*	$326.1*	$347.1*
EBITDA (Actual) ($USD Millions)	$230.7*	$355.0*	$318.6*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Implications: Q3 adjusted EPS beat consensus (+$0.10 vs $3.10), while revenue missed (~$143M below), consistent with Access volume and discounting pressures and Transport ramp/warranty dynamics .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Mixed print: EPS beat vs revenue miss; quality of earnings supported by Vocational and pricing discipline, but Access softness and warranty costs limit upside near term .
Tariff overlay into Q4/2026: expect Q4 headwind ($20–$30M) and 2026 pricing actions to offset; monitor discounting normalization and supply chain mitigations .
NGDV is pivotal to 2026 Transport profits: sequential progress but still sub-full-rate; achieving year-end line rates is a key stock catalyst .
Vocational strength durable: throughput gains and airport products growth support mid-teens margins; backlog suggests multi-quarter execution runway .
Capital allocation: raised cash flow outlook, lower CapEx, continued buybacks, and consistent dividend ($0.51) provide downside support .
Watch Access mix and CAT telehandler exit impact: expect stabilization with mega-projects/data centers and local-for-local footprint advantage vs import competitors .
Autonomy strategy emerging: FMAV portfolio and PLS A2 award could differentiate Transport; look for incremental program wins and margin accretion .

Appendix: Additional Data Points

Corporate/Other net operating costs decreased $16.6M YoY in Q3 to $35.9M (timing of healthcare charges, lower incentive accruals) .
Tax: Q3 effective tax rate 17.5% aided by $19.1M audit resolution; EPS benefitted ~$0.30 .
Backlog: Consolidated backlog remains solid at $13.69B; Access backlog declined with market caution, Vocational/Transport remained elevated .
Strategic initiatives: FMAV autonomy variants (X-MAV, M-MAV, L-MAV), DeepFires collaboration with RTX/Forterra, and $89M PLS A2 order underpin technology leadership .

OSHKOSH CORP (OSK)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary